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View Full Version : Can the Reds stay in contention with this offense?



fewfirstchoice
04-18-2009, 09:29 PM
I dont think there is any way the Reds can stay in contention with this offense. The most hits they have had in a game so far is 7. Thats it 7. This offense is terrible. They need to add a big bat and another run producer before they can even think about making a run at the post season. I hope with everything in me that Im wrong but I just dont see it. I think they will stick around for the first month to month and a half. But after that this team will fall off big time. What say you?

keeganbrick
04-18-2009, 09:31 PM
Negative, they shoulda signed Burrell if that is all he was asking for. The defense is no better than it was before either. Has Hernandez thrown out someone trying to steal yet?

highheat11
04-18-2009, 09:45 PM
They definitely need a big bat. They preached speed and defense, well I'm still waiting. We've seen glimpses of great D, but we've also see absolutely terrible play in the field in the early part of the season. People need to start hitting, or we need to bring in a solid power hitter. Votto can only carry us so far unless he gets some protection in the lineup.

Jerry Narron
04-18-2009, 10:02 PM
Why the Reds didn't pull the trigger and sign Abreu for cheap is beyond me.

goreds2
04-18-2009, 10:28 PM
As I stated in another thread like this, give it 6 weeks then evaluate. We are just ending week two.

Slyder
04-18-2009, 10:51 PM
As I stated in another thread like this, give it 6 weeks then evaluate. We are just ending week two.

You can't win a division in April but you certainly can lose it.

nmculbreth
04-18-2009, 11:24 PM
You can't win a division in April but you certainly can lose it.

I'd venture a 5-5 record doesn't put the Reds out of contention just yet.

I think most rational Reds fans realized that this club was short on offense going into the season and they've done very little to disprove that feeling. That being said I think this club is probably better offensively than they've shown thus far. Bruce is far too talented to continue to struggle so mightily and the same can be said about Phillips and to a lesser extent about Hernandez.

The real question mark in my mind is Alex Gonzalez, but I'm willing to give him a bit more time before jumping to any conclusions.

Jefferson24
04-18-2009, 11:26 PM
The pitching is not as good as everyone thought it would be. The offense unfortunately is living up to expectations.

Slyder
04-18-2009, 11:52 PM
The pitching is not as good as everyone thought it would be. The offense unfortunately is living up to expectations.

I really feel for the staff, they have to be almost absolutely perfect or else. We could very easily be looking at 2-8 if not for 2 swings in previous games (where they were the ONLY offense). Its a lot to put on the shoulders of Edison, Johnny, Aaron, Bronson, Micah, and any other SP we use that in a lot of games they have to give up no more than 2 runs for us to have a chance. Cant forget that Cueto, Volquez, Burton, etc are all really young so they arent going to be able to as easily go out there when they dont have "it" on a given night and make it work like we've seen Arroyo and Harang make it work over the years.

Ghosts of 1990
04-19-2009, 01:09 AM
My thought..... we might be two bats away from being a legitimate offense. Not one.

JBChance
04-19-2009, 01:47 AM
We must produce more offense to compete. It would be miraculous if this lineup can do it.

Harang's run support in his 2 losses? ZERO runs.

Tonight, he didn't have it, but he still kept us in the game until the seventh. Then Burton came in and fanned the flames.

We clearly don't have the bats to compete. We haven't had a game, yet, where we've had 10 or more hits. We are dead last in majors in batting average and 3rd from the bottom in slugging, runs scored, and OPS. Our OBP is a little higher, thankfully, due to the team being 11th in walks. If it wasn't for that, no way we are .500.

If things stayed the same, the pitching staff would have to be insanely amazing and keep opposing teams' scoring down to 1, 2, or 3 runs every night. It's just to much to put on the staff.

I think this team has potential and has some fighters on it, but, a couple more of these bad losses will put that to the test. The bottom of the order has been atrocious. You can carry 1 or maybe 2 stiffs in the order, but not as many as we have.

However, I do see a lot of determination in this bunch. If the team can somehow hang in there in April and May with the walks, timely hitting, and good pitching, maybe Jockety will pull the trigger on some deals to get:

A: A shortstop - The writing is on the wall with AGon. He's absolutely killing the lineup every time at the plate. Even with avg defense for a SS, it's not even remotely worth it. His replacements are hardly better; a guy who can't hit, but might field and a guy who can marginally hit, but can't field. The replacements in the minors are OK, but more suited for 2B, imo.

B: A power hitting OF - Who did we have starting today? Laynce Nix. What did he do? strikeout 3 times. For those of you who wondered why he hasn't started, you have your answer. Other than him, we have Willy T. (who, in all fairness, has been doing a good job at getting on), Jay Bruce (who's struggling, but will be OK), the Chris Dickerson/ Jerry Hairston platoon, and Darnell McDonald. None of those guys, save Bruce (potentially), are big run producers. We need someone to drive 'em in.

This teams' only shot is to somehow keep scraping some wins together, keeping around .500 and forcing the Walt and Co. to do something.

RedLakerFan24
04-19-2009, 04:08 AM
We Need Miguel Cabrera, but detroit wont trade him, the only bat available might be Ordonez, and he would help, also i wouldnt mind trading Bailey for a shortstop, we need a shortstop who could hit Maybe J.J. Hardy, Bailey + Frazier + Valaika for Hardy, the Stubbs + Thomson + Roenicke for Ordonez and we got a good offense

Taveras
Phillips
Votto
Ordonez
JJ Hardy
Jay Bruce
Encarnacion
Hernandez

redsfanmia
04-19-2009, 09:49 AM
We Need Miguel Cabrera, but detroit wont trade him, the only bat available might be Ordonez, and he would help, also i wouldnt mind trading Bailey for a shortstop, we need a shortstop who could hit Maybe J.J. Hardy, Bailey + Frazier + Valaika for Hardy, the Stubbs + Thomson + Roenicke for Ordonez and we got a good offense

Taveras
Phillips
Votto
Ordonez
JJ Hardy
Jay Bruce
Encarnacion
Hernandez

Who is going to pay the salaries of these players? Big Bob is not going to raise payroll.

Ghosts of 1990
04-19-2009, 10:18 AM
every team in baseball needs miguel cabrera

He got it!
04-19-2009, 10:40 AM
Negative, they shoulda signed Burrell if that is all he was asking for. The defense is no better than it was before either. Has Hernandez thrown out someone trying to steal yet?

Yes, Hernandez has - and made several nice tags at the plate. Nobody was excited about Hernandez's defense as much they were his offense coming into the season. I disagree that the defense is not better than last year. Certainly Hernandez has nothing to do with it even if you do think this for some reason.

improbus
04-19-2009, 11:17 AM
The Reds are 11th in MLB in walks taken (they were 14th last year w/ Dunn). When they start to hit, which they will, their offense will be pretty solid. They aren't the '27 Yankees, but they are also not the '84 Reds. Let's not jump off the ledge just yet.
EE won't hit .172 for the season
PHil won't hit .200 for the season
Hairston won't hit .167 for the season
Bruce won't hit .176 for the season
AGon won't hit .077 for the season

xavr1
04-19-2009, 11:30 AM
I agreed with that entire post...until I read "AGon won't hit .077 for the season."

I dont know if I'd go that far lol.

improbus
04-19-2009, 11:42 AM
Well, alot of what the Reds are going through is some bad luck. Their BABiP is .248. That is REALLY low. Their BABiP was .278 last year and .298 in 2007. That number won't stay that low.
As a contrast, the Marlins current BABiP is .338. It won't stay that high all season.
Here are some other teams that have comparable offenses:
PIT: .318
HOU: .271.
ATL: .282
MIL: .256
The craziest of all, WAS: .345

When the Reds BABiP rises, so will their run totals and their win totals.

redsfanfalcon
04-19-2009, 11:45 AM
The biggest concern (outside of the offense) is Jared Burton. I hope he gets back on track soon.

forfreelin04
04-19-2009, 11:58 AM
every buffett in baseball needs miguel cabrera

Fixed that for you

ChatterRed
04-19-2009, 12:42 PM
Wandy Rodriguez just pitched a career game. I watched the entire game, the dude was on. And Harang wasn't.

Any team is going to run into a Mack truck at times. There is nothing you can do about it, so just move on. Same with Harang in his last start. He was on, and they couldn't hit him. Are we the only team to experience this? You'd think so by the postings on this board.

Can we get out of April before condemning this team? So far, this road trip isn't that bad. And nobody is hitting. It is a club-wide problem right now. I'm sure ownership didn't expect Bruce to be in the tank like he is. That's one decent bat not producing.

NeilHamburger
04-19-2009, 01:16 PM
Reds team batting is .208 lowest in baseball
Reds have 22 extra base hits: worst in baseball


The truth is a speed offense just doesn't work in this day and age. Honestly, I believe Jocketty knew that, he was just bul****ting the fans, trying to get them to go see a 90 loss team.

BLEEDS
04-19-2009, 01:31 PM
My thought..... we might be two bats away from being a legitimate offense. Not one.

Yep. I won't mention any names, but their initials are LF and SS.

Ironically, these are the same two "guys" the FO said were their TOP PRIORITIES going into the off-season.

Actually Wily Taveras is doing fairly decent, helped by the ridiculous early season BB% this whole team has received thus far, but the rest of the offense has been beyond Horrendous.

Dickerson and JHJ just aren't getting it done, and the rest of the "internal upgrades" everyone predicted - including all this great projected defense - to pick up the slack from last year's offense (from one guy in particular) has not been nearly enough.


As was posted in the Game Thread Last night, by improbus:
""
Unfortunately, the "take a bunch of walks" philosophy only works when the opposing pitcher throws balls. At some point, you really do need to actually "hit" the baseball.
""
I couldn't agree more. This is BOUND to get worse as the year progresses, then we'll have to see how this new offensive philosophy works.
EVEN IFF Taveras keeps it up and posts a .330+ OBP, the rest of the team is sucking too, and historically struggle at what we are asking them to do/become in this offense.
Outside of Dickerson, everyone else is pretty much a known. Bruce has upside, EE is making steady offensive improvements, but that's about it. BP unfortunately is what he is, and what he ain't is a 4 hole hitter.

I'm also REALLY starting to question the JHJ versus Keppinger. Taking a guy off of ONE career year with 10 other years of history, versus a guy who shined in one year and then had an off-year last year (though still crushed LHP) coming back from injury.
Sure we're not talking huge ceilings or big major gains here, but seriously you can't see that a guy with 10 years of proven SUCK has less value than another guy with a proven Minor League history of getting on base, and CRUSHING LHP?!?!

It's this kind of move - the Freel's, Stanton's, etc... - that got the other GM ran out of town, and we've done in the last 10+ years, and we just continue to do it over and over again.

Expecting lighting to strike twice is no way to run an MLB organization.

PEACE

-BLEEDS

NeilHamburger
04-19-2009, 01:49 PM
I'd argue the Reds are at least 3 big bats away from having a good offense. LF, SS and C or 3B. If they could get a McCann type at catcher it would allow them to keep EE at third. Honestly, this is the worst offense in baseball, and has a real chance to be the worst in a decade

Phillips should be hitting 7th or 8th on an even average offense


And the more I see, the more I wish the Reds had never traded Josh Hamilton away. You could've had Alonso at first, Hamilton in right and Votto in left next year. Bruce could be a great trading chip to get a good SS or catcher.

TheBigLebowski
04-19-2009, 02:00 PM
Let's give it a little more time before we panic. We've only had Tavares fully healthy for a couple of games. Bruce hasn't hit a thing yet and we all know he will. Hernandez and Gonzalez have had ridiculously slow starts and should begin to approach their norms soon. Same for Phillips. EdE has done a great job getting on base but hasn't hit at all. He will. I certainly think we'll still need to add at least one bat if we really do want to compete but we're not as bad as we've looked thus far.

Eric_the_Red
04-19-2009, 02:05 PM
Not with this offense through 10 games, but if the veterans hit their career average AND the young players develop, than I think the team can finish above .500. Perhaps not in contention, but a positive step nonetheless.

improbus
04-19-2009, 02:43 PM
As was posted in the Game Thread Last night, by improbus:
""
Unfortunately, the "take a bunch of walks" philosophy only works when the opposing pitcher throws balls. At some point, you really do need to actually "hit" the baseball.
""
I couldn't agree more. This is BOUND to get worse as the year progresses, then we'll have to see how this new offensive philosophy works.
EVEN IFF Taveras keeps it up and posts a .330+ OBP, the rest of the team is sucking too, and historically struggle at what we are asking them to do/become in this offense.

Nothing like quoting your own quote.

I do think that bad luck has played a significant part in the Reds overall hitting. The fact that their only hitting .246 on balls that they put in play is somewhat fluky. Bruce has hit a ton of balls right at people. Eventually, they will start finding some holes and will improve their average.

Also, I've watched Volquez and Harang and have seen them both give up more seeing-eye ground balls than I can typically remember happening. The 'Stros hit the hole between 3rd and SS 3 times in one inning.

More than any other sport, baseball involves a ton of luck.

improbus
04-19-2009, 02:48 PM
Here is something else to chew on. The Reds currently have and OBP of .317, which is awful. However if they are able to raise their team BA from .208 to around .250-.255 (where is should sit by seasons end), then that OBP should go up somewhat dramatically, assuming that they continue to take walks and work counts.

BLEEDS
04-19-2009, 04:33 PM
Here is something else to chew on. The Reds currently have and OBP of .317, which is awful. However if they are able to raise their team BA from .208 to around .250-.255 (where is should sit by seasons end), then that OBP should go up somewhat dramatically, assuming that they continue to take walks and work counts.

I was looking for a way to highlight in red and make it flash, but that's the best I could come up with...

PEACE

-BLEEDS

improbus
04-19-2009, 04:39 PM
I was looking for a way to highlight in red and make it flash, but that's the best I could come up with...

PEACE

-BLEEDS

Until they do otherwise, I will stay optimistic.

He got it!
04-19-2009, 07:54 PM
Reds team batting is .208 lowest in baseball
Reds have 22 extra base hits: worst in baseball


The truth is a speed offense just doesn't work in this day and age. Honestly, I believe Jocketty knew that, he was just bul****ting the fans, trying to get them to go see a 90 loss team.


Really? Why do you say this? I was just thinking the opposite. What kind of offense would you say wins this day and age?

jmac
04-19-2009, 08:02 PM
I think it is pretty safe to say Bruce's avg will rise as will BP's and EE's to some extent. Ramon will probably hit close to the 250 range and Alex, I dont know about.
So the offense is better than what it has shown but still will have to get lots of wins like today.
Their best lineup is probably facing a righty when Owings is on the mound.
Then you get Dickerson in LF & Owings for 2-3 AB's.

Captain Hook
04-19-2009, 08:06 PM
Its hard to watch this offense and I agree with what everyone is saying for the most part.The thing is, I think we all had a good idea that this is how things would be.Our starting pitching hasn't even been all that great but despite all of this the Reds are now 6-5.I don't know what the final record would be playing 6-5 baseball all season but I would guess that it would get us close to the playoffs.

The offense in past years have been much better but if not operating on all cylinders caused the team to really struggle.During those times it was easy to say that the team was going nowhere.This current team might be different though.I can't really put my finger on it but I would guess that it probably is because the pitching as a whole, starting and relief is above average for the first time in what seems like forever.The offense is scrappy at best but has shown a tendency to get timely hits.These two things are major differences from past teams.

I guess what I'm saying is that a team with a bad offense and good pitching is more likely to contend then a team with a good offense and bad pitching.I'm not predicting a playoff run but I do still have a decent amount of hope based on this.It may be hard to watch but its what we got and as long as we have a better chance this season then past seasons I'll try to be content.

RedLakerFan24
04-20-2009, 02:25 PM
Magglio Ordonez, he would fix our hitting, he is not a homerun type, he is a hitter that will hit around 300 with 15-20 HR and 90-100 RBI, we need him in the Line Up behind Votto, Votto cant carry this team offensively he needs protection, Stubbs + Roenicke for Ordonez

1. Taveras CF
2. Encarnacion 3B/ Phillips 2B
3. Votto 1B
4. Ordonez LF
5. Phillips 2B/ Encanacion 3B
6. Bruce RF
7. Hernandez C
8. Gonzalez SS
9. Pitcher

Newport Red
04-21-2009, 10:48 AM
With this offense as it is currently producing and a 5th starter with a 7.5 era. No.

It's still April though.

goreds2
04-22-2009, 12:42 AM
I am more disappointed in our outfield defense this year than anything. :thumbdown

Kingspoint
04-22-2009, 03:50 PM
This is at the top of the page again?

Again, the answer is yes.

We are giving up fewer runs and we are winning. At 7-6, we are projected out to win 88 games, far exceeding expectations.

fielder's choice
04-22-2009, 07:52 PM
I wish the answer were yes, but there is no chance.
You just can't win with only one consistently good hitter.

RedLakerFan24
04-22-2009, 08:10 PM
Ok heres my idea, Trade Thompson, Frazier, Roenike for Delmon Young, then trade Bailey, Stubbs, Francisco for JJ Hardy we stay young and good

1. Willy Taveras
2. Brandon Phillips
3. Joey Votto
4. JJ Hardy
5. Jay Bruce
6. Delmon Young
7. Edwin Encarnacion
8. Ramon Hernandez

Slyder
04-22-2009, 08:19 PM
Ok heres my idea, Trade Thompson, Frazier, Roenike for Delmon Young, then trade Bailey, Stubbs, Francisco for JJ Hardy we stay young and good
1. Willy Taveras
2. Brandon Phillips
3. Joey Votto
4. JJ Hardy
5. Jay Bruce
6. Delmon Young
7. Edwin Encarnacion
8. Ramon Hernandez

The Brewers would laugh at you and hang up if thats what you offered them for Hardy. They may have Escobar ready soon but they arent going to trade Hardy to anyone let alone in the division.

Kingspoint
04-22-2009, 09:26 PM
If we're 7-6 while hitting .213 and our 3-4 hitters hitting way under .200 w/ RISP, I can't wait to see what happens when that starts to balance itself out.

GOYA
04-22-2009, 09:37 PM
Ok heres my idea, Trade Thompson, Frazier, Roenike for Delmon Young, then trade Bailey, Stubbs, Francisco for JJ Hardy we stay young and good

1. Willy Taveras
2. Brandon Phillips
3. Joey Votto
4. JJ Hardy
5. Jay Bruce
6. Delmon Young
7. Edwin Encarnacion
8. Ramon Hernandez

Talk about selling the farm.

Va Red Fan
04-23-2009, 09:46 AM
I am excited that the Reds are two games above .500 while the offense has not clicked yet. If you are managing to win, it doesn't really matter how.

Way to go Reds. i'm proud to call you my team.

Tavares is much better than you guys predicted. I hope he continues to humble many of you.

Va Red Fan
04-23-2009, 09:57 AM
Reds team batting is .208 lowest in baseball
Reds have 22 extra base hits: worst in baseball


The truth is a speed offense just doesn't work in this day and age. Honestly, I believe Jocketty knew that, he was just bul****ting the fans, trying to get them to go see a 90 loss team.


How silly! Ranking against the league doesn't matter. Wins - that's how you are judged in the end.
Speed offenses can win. Small ball has been a concept for many years and there have been examples of it being successful. WJ has a plan, unlike GM's of the past, and I respect this team striving to be strong on the mound and in the field while trying to win with speed and timely hitting on offense.
We are going to come off the longest road trip of the season with a winning record - through our own division - so you can't knock what's been accomplished.

Go Reds!

gedred69
04-23-2009, 10:43 AM
Once Bruce and Phillips get on line, this offense won't be so anemic. IF,the pitching continues, why not?

Bumstead
04-23-2009, 10:53 AM
Let's see...we are 8-6 and have a shot today to win our 3rd straight series on the road and half the team is hitting under .220. As long as the Cubs underachieve, it seems pretty obvious that we can compete. These guys will start hitting (Bruce is already starting to hit). The pitching is for real! That is what we have been missing for years.

Bum

Kingspoint
04-23-2009, 05:20 PM
WJ has a plan, unlike GM's of the past, and I respect this team striving to be strong on the mound and in the field while trying to win with speed and timely hitting on offense.


For the record, this is not Jockety's team out there. He just had the wisdom to continue going the same direction that the last two GM's had this franchise pointed. That takes guts. I really respect him for that.

Jockety's first big imprint will be when Uberstud Yonder Alonso(sp?) gets to the Majors. His 35+ HR power every year will be locked into the #4 hole behind Votto. Believe it, or not, Bruce will have to bat 6th in that lineup with EE batting 5th. They could go, Votto 2nd, Alonso(sp?) 3rd, and Bruce 5th. Oh, well, we have 3 great lefties. We'll deal with it.

Ghosts of 1990
04-23-2009, 05:32 PM
For the record, this is not Jockety's team out there. He just had the wisdom to continue going the same direction that the last two GM's had this franchise pointed. That takes guts. I really respect him for that.

Jockety's first big imprint will be when Uberstud Yonder Alonso(sp?) gets to the Majors. His 35+ HR power every year will be locked into the #4 hole behind Votto. Believe it, or not, Bruce will have to bat 6th in that lineup with EE batting 5th. They could go, Votto 2nd, Alonso(sp?) 3rd, and Bruce 5th. Oh, well, we have 3 great lefties. We'll deal with it.

I think we're a ways away from seeing Alonso hit 35+ major league home runs in a season. Hitting Bruce 6th in the lineup as an experienced hitter whenever Alonso reaches the big leagues isn't something I see happening. Why not hit Alonso sixth rather then 3rd?

You also might see Votto 3rd, Bruce 4th, and Alonso 6th.

RedEyez
04-23-2009, 06:27 PM
agreed about Hernandez

Kingspoint
04-23-2009, 06:50 PM
I think we're a ways away from seeing Alonso hit 35+ major league home runs in a season. Hitting Bruce 6th in the lineup as an experienced hitter whenever Alonso reaches the big leagues isn't something I see happening. Why not hit Alonso sixth rather then 3rd?

You also might see Votto 3rd, Bruce 4th, and Alonso 6th.

Alonso's OBP is likely to be 75 points higher than Bruce's, and his average is likely to be 30 points higher.

Alonso will hit 35+ homeruns in 2012 and every year after that for the next 7 years.

FlyerFanatic
04-23-2009, 06:58 PM
how long do you think it will take for Alonso to make his way to the majors? Is he going to be able to pull a david price and work his way up pretty fast?

Kingspoint
04-23-2009, 08:57 PM
how long do you think it will take for Alonso to make his way to the majors? Is he going to be able to pull a david price and work his way up pretty fast?

He'll be here this September.

FlyerFanatic
04-23-2009, 09:45 PM
He'll be here this September.

really? where is he at right now?

Kingspoint
04-23-2009, 09:57 PM
Playing 1B in the High-A league....learning to play defense down there. He's not there to learn how to hit. He already knows how to do that at that level.

He'll move to AA in June or July, working with another coach to improve his Defense at 1B.....probably not even see AAA this year, and finish the season at AA, but then come up in September.

BLEEDS
04-25-2009, 01:34 PM
Alonso's OBP is likely to be 75 points higher than Bruce's, and his average is likely to be 30 points higher.

Alonso will hit 35+ homeruns in 2012 and every year after that for the next 7 years.

At least you're not setting unrealistic expectations for the kid.

PEACE

-BLEEDS

improbus
04-25-2009, 01:45 PM
At least you're not setting unrealistic expectations for the kid.

PEACE

-BLEEDS
Just like Homer Bailey would be a #1 starter and mowing down major leaguers in 2009...

Eric_the_Red
04-25-2009, 02:05 PM
Just like Homer Bailey would be a #1 starter and mowing down major leaguers in 2009...

And Austin Kearns...and Felipe Lopez...and Sean Casey....and Chris Gruler...and Dustin Mosely...and Brandon Larson...etc...etc....etc

improbus
04-25-2009, 02:09 PM
And Austin Kearns...and Felipe Lopez...and Sean Casey....and Chris Gruler...and Dustin Mosely...and Brandon Larson...etc...etc....etc
CJ Nitkowski was my favorite.