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View Full Version : Philip Hughes or Homer Bailey?



fearofpopvol1
04-29-2009, 12:15 PM
Both are from the same class more or less and Hughes just pitched last night against a pretty darn good Detroit offense and gave up 0 runs, 2 hits , 2BB and 6Ks over 6 IP (the type of start Bailey has not matched at the show).

To be fair though, Hughes had previously struggled quite a bit at the show and has shown a propensity to injur easily.

So here's the question...at this very moment, who would you take, Bailey or Hughes and why? You can factor in upside or results or whatever, but the question is asking, who would you take right now?

RedEye
04-29-2009, 12:17 PM
Hughes. I don't think his injury issues signal anything chronic, and I think he's a more polished pitcher than Homer. It's not really close right now.

dougdirt
04-29-2009, 12:22 PM
Bailey. Barely.
Bailey has the edge in stuff right now, even if he is inconsistent with it. His upside is just higher and I really feel he is on the brink of big things. Hughes still has plenty good stuff and his control is very good. I think he is likely to be the better pitcher in the near future, but I think Bailey will still be good during that time and is going to be the better pitcher over the long haul.

Bumstead
04-29-2009, 12:23 PM
Bailey. We have him and we don't have to try and trade for him. The Yankees wouldn't give up Hughes for Bailey (I don't think they would trade Hughes at all). In a dream world, I think it's a toss up; they have similar unrealized potential.

Bum

OnBaseMachine
04-29-2009, 12:23 PM
Bailey. Barely.
Bailey has the edge in stuff right now, even if he is inconsistent with it. His upside is just higher and I really feel he is on the brink of big things. Hughes still has plenty good stuff and his control is very good. I think he is likely to be the better pitcher in the near future, but I think Bailey will still be good during that time and is going to be the better pitcher over the long haul.

I agree. It's close, but I like Bailey a little more.

RedsManRick
04-29-2009, 01:10 PM
I cannot differentiate them sufficiently based on their talent. Stuff wise they both seem to have top of the rotation potential. Neither has a significant injury history. I'd take Hughes for the sole reason that there don't seem to be the coachability questions that surround Bailey. Even his ceiling is a touch higher, it seems that Bailey carries a much bigger chance of never becoming an established major leaguer.

bucksfan2
04-29-2009, 01:23 PM
I cannot differentiate them sufficiently based on their talent. Stuff wise they both seem to have top of the rotation potential. Neither has a significant injury history. I'd take Hughes for the sole reason that there don't seem to be the coachability questions that surround Bailey. Even his ceiling is a touch higher, it seems that Bailey carries a much bigger chance of never becoming an established major leaguer.

Are Bailey's coachability's issues are a result of us Reds fans being closer to the situation than Hughes? Just curious, I just wonder if they are blown out of proportion because of his potential and his high exposure to Reds fans.

TRF
04-29-2009, 01:33 PM
can I pick Cueto? :)

I picked Bailey.

Cueto's better than both of them though.

OnBaseMachine
04-29-2009, 01:39 PM
can I pick Cueto? :)

I picked Bailey.

Cueto's better than both of them though.

I agree. But I'm happy to have both in the organization.

dougdirt
04-29-2009, 01:39 PM
can I pick Cueto? :)

I picked Bailey.

Cueto's better than both of them though.

You can pick Cueto, but your vote won't count lol. I will still go out on a limb and take Baileys career over that of Cueto.

TRF
04-29-2009, 01:42 PM
You can pick Cueto, but your vote won't count lol. I will still go out on a limb and take Baileys career over that of Cueto.


care to wager one of FCB's kids on that?

GIDP
04-29-2009, 01:42 PM
id take Bailey considering how we have waited it out this far, but if you would have asked me a couple years ago I would have taken Hughes

Homer Bailey
04-29-2009, 03:21 PM
Both are from the same class more or less and Hughes just pitched last night against a pretty darn good Detroit offense and gave up 0 runs, 2 hits , 2BB and 6Ks over 6 IP (the type of start Bailey has not matched at the show).

To be fair though, Hughes had previously struggled quite a bit at the show and has shown a propensity to injur easily.

So here's the question...at this very moment, who would you take, Bailey or Hughes and why? You can factor in upside or results or whatever, but the question is asking, who would you take right now?

In his 3rd career start, Bailey went 7 IP, 2 H, 1 R, 4BB, 3K. Maybe not matched last nights, but it's comparable.

BoydsOfSummer
04-29-2009, 05:33 PM
Even Homer Bai:Dley chose Hughes! That's not right!

Mario-Rijo
04-29-2009, 06:16 PM
I went with Hughes just barely. My thought is his strength lies in his control which makes him the more likely prospect to get something out of sooner or later. But it's a tight race! BTW I'd take Baileys game vs. the A's a few years back over that Hughes start vs. Detroit. Bailey looked like a future HOF that game.

M2
04-29-2009, 07:19 PM
Where's the "None of the above" selection?

I wouldn't stick either one on a list of top 25-and-under pitchers.

lollipopcurve
04-29-2009, 07:39 PM
Hughes. Gonna be a good one.

M2
04-29-2009, 07:57 PM
Hughes. Gonna be a good one.

Do you think he's going to stay healthy for extended periods of time?

He's not as bad as Adam Miller, but has he ever had a season where he didn't need to shut it down for at least a few starts?

lollipopcurve
04-29-2009, 08:15 PM
Do you think he's going to stay healthy for extended periods of time?

He's not as bad as Adam Miller, but has he ever had a season where he didn't need to shut it down for at least a few starts?

I don't think he's a chronic case, like Miller. His first injury was a hamstring.

Benihana
04-29-2009, 08:26 PM
Good thing they didn't give him up for Santana...

RED VAN HOT
04-30-2009, 02:54 PM
Based on their minor league stats, Hughes is far ahead at the moment. The most impressive stat to me is his minor league WHIP of .92. Barring injuries and a possible failure to adapt to the wind tunnel that is the new Yankee Stadium, he is on his way to becoming a top pitcher.

If, however, Homer puts together a string of overpowering games like his last one, I could change my mind.

fearofpopvol1
04-30-2009, 09:55 PM
What I wonder is if Hughes' next start at the show is dominant at the show and Bailey has another dud, would that change the results of this poll? I really think it would (if the poll were created then).

dougdirt
04-30-2009, 10:07 PM
What I wonder is if Hughes' next start at the show is dominant at the show and Bailey has another dud, would that change the results of this poll? I really think it would (if the poll were created then).

People shouldn't let things like that determine their opinion on this matter. Certainly they probably will, but they shouldn't.

redsmetz
05-01-2009, 05:45 AM
Bailey. We have him and we don't have to try and trade for him. The Yankees wouldn't give up Hughes for Bailey (I don't think they would trade Hughes at all). In a dream world, I think it's a toss up; they have similar unrealized potential.

This was my thought exactly, although I suspect that's not meant to be part of the equation. But as you note, it's part of the reality and it sways me. Also, while some haven't given this much credence this season, I think there has been a sea change in Bailey's maturity during the off-season. I think that will move his progress in the direction we've all been hoping for.

gedred69
05-01-2009, 10:52 PM
You can pick Cueto, but your vote won't count lol. I will still go out on a limb and take Baileys career over that of Cueto.

Your evaluations are respected. I desire to know why you think so. The one thing that worries me about Cueto is his temperment. Is he prone to be a lesser Zambrano? Oh what he could be, but for that temper..........

dougdirt
05-02-2009, 01:38 AM
Your evaluations are respected. I desire to know why you think so. The one thing that worries me about Cueto is his temperment. Is he prone to be a lesser Zambrano? Oh what he could be, but for that temper..........

Bailey has stuff that can be just as good if not better than Cueto. He isn't as consistent as Cueto is right now, which is why Cueto is better currently. However Cueto is short and works up in the zone. That leads to lots of fly balls and a higher number of HR's. Bailey is taller and works lower in the zone, leading to more grounders and fewer HR's. I just think Bailey will have a better peak and have more staying power after the age of 28.

As far as Cueto and Zambrano, I don't see the similarities. Cueto gets mad at himself, but Zambrano gets mad at everyone including himself. Huge difference there.

acredsfan
05-03-2009, 01:32 PM
Bailey has stuff that can be just as good if not better than Cueto. He isn't as consistent as Cueto is right now, which is why Cueto is better currently. However Cueto is short and works up in the zone. That leads to lots of fly balls and a higher number of HR's. Bailey is taller and works lower in the zone, leading to more grounders and fewer HR's. I just think Bailey will have a better peak and have more staying power after the age of 28.

As far as Cueto and Zambrano, I don't see the similarities. Cueto gets mad at himself, but Zambrano gets mad at everyone including himself. Huge difference there.It's kind of funny that someone compares Johnny to Carlos when I actually believe there are more similarities between Homer and Carlos. Both have the stuff to be successful, but the thing that makes them enigmas is what lies between the ears. I agree that Zambrano isn't a great comparison to Cueto, but I think he's oddly similar to Homer. Yeah, homer doesn't throw tantrums, but maturity even from game to game can be the difference between a shutout and a short outing. You just don't know what they are going to bring to the mound each day.

That said, Homer seems stable enough to gain control of himself and mature. Carlos is, well.... Carlos is Carlos.

fearofpopvol1
05-26-2009, 12:39 AM
I have to say...Hughes continues to impress. It's too early to definitively say anything, but there is no doubt that Hughes is improving his resume while Homer hasn't stepped up.

Shawn_RedsFan
05-26-2009, 12:44 AM
It's kind of funny that someone compares Johnny to Carlos when I actually believe there are more similarities between Homer and Carlos. Both have the stuff to be successful, but the thing that makes them enigmas is what lies between the ears. I agree that Zambrano isn't a great comparison to Cueto, but I think he's oddly similar to Homer. Yeah, homer doesn't throw tantrums, but maturity even from game to game can be the difference between a shutout and a short outing. You just don't know what they are going to bring to the mound each day.

That said, Homer seems stable enough to gain control of himself and mature. Carlos is, well.... Carlos is Carlos.

As a big Homer fan I was just thinking this myself a few days ago, but I think Homer keeps his emotions inside of him when he gets upset during the game unlike Zambrano where you actually see his tantrums

Lockdwn11
05-26-2009, 04:48 PM
You can pick Cueto, but your vote won't count lol. I will still go out on a limb and take Baileys career over that of Cueto.

Doug and I had a talk about this very thing sometime ago in one of these threads I disagreed then as I do now but you have to give it to him for sticking to his guns.

TRF
05-26-2009, 05:17 PM
Doug and I had a talk about this very thing sometime ago in one of these threads I disagreed then as I do now but you have to give it to him for sticking to his guns.

I have trouble believing doug still believes this. Cueto is obviously the superior talent. And I firmly believe understanding HOW to pitch is a talent.

GIDP
05-26-2009, 05:21 PM
Can I take Baileys stuff with Cuetos control please?

Sea Ray
05-26-2009, 05:42 PM
I have never seen Homer Bailey look impressive in a game. I still don't see what the hype is about and I see opposing teams eager to hit against him. Major league hitters love a guy who throws 93-95 that can't control anything else. They just sit back and wait for that very straight heater to come down Broadway. They'd rather face that than say a Matt Maloney

Lockdwn11
05-26-2009, 08:48 PM
I was very eager to see Bailey's first MLB start after hearing so much about him on this board but after I saw it I was left wanting. What I saw was a very straight Fastball that had no movement and off-speed stuff that didn't have that nice bite that good breaking balls have. In other words I'm not a big fan of Bailey's stuff so I kind of stay away from all the Homer Bailey threads but I just thought I would share my opinion this one time.

dougdirt
05-27-2009, 01:11 AM
I have trouble believing doug still believes this. Cueto is obviously the superior talent. And I firmly believe understanding HOW to pitch is a talent.

Cueto is the better pitcher now. No question about it. Bailey has a better arm and a better body. If someone had a gun to my head and made me choose who has the best career, I would still take Bailey. I am sure about 99% will disagree with me. I am fine with that. Its an opinion.

blumj
05-27-2009, 07:26 AM
It isn't the same question, though. You don't get a player's whole career, you get 6 years and 3 options and limited roster spots. Maybe with Cueto, you don't necessarily want to bet on getting value for any more than those first 6 years, but, maybe with Bailey, that won't be enough time to get value at all.

dougdirt
05-27-2009, 12:09 PM
It isn't the same question, though. You don't get a player's whole career, you get 6 years and 3 options and limited roster spots. Maybe with Cueto, you don't necessarily want to bet on getting value for any more than those first 6 years, but, maybe with Bailey, that won't be enough time to get value at all.

The question I was answering was about the career of the two players. I don't care much about the first 6 years because if a player is good enough, teams keep those guys around for the most part.

NJReds
05-27-2009, 02:34 PM
I have to admit. I've been on the side of being patient with Bailey, but he's going to have to show something eventually.

Hughes has been inconsistent, but he's at least shown flashes of dominance on the major league level.

M2
05-27-2009, 03:10 PM
It isn't the same question, though. You don't get a player's whole career, you get 6 years and 3 options and limited roster spots. Maybe with Cueto, you don't necessarily want to bet on getting value for any more than those first 6 years, but, maybe with Bailey, that won't be enough time to get value at all.

Bingo. Aside from that, Cueto's got better stuff, superior control and he's a smarter pitcher.

dougdirt
05-27-2009, 03:16 PM
Bingo. Aside from that, Cueto's got better stuff, superior control and he's a smarter pitcher.
Except its not bingo because that wasn't the question I was answering. Smart pitcher, yes. Better control, yes. Better stuff, on a consistent basis, yes. Better stuff when both are throwing their best? I am not so sure about that one.

GIDP
05-27-2009, 03:19 PM
Yea im gonna go with Doug also on that one about the stuff. Its just a shame not many people have seen Bailey when hes throwing his best. The potential is there but he doesnt put it together for a full game ever.

Superdude
05-27-2009, 04:49 PM
Bailey has a better arm and a better body.

Better body obviously, but arm? Just based on what I've seen from Bailey at the major league level, Cueto seems to consistently throw harder and with more movement.

TRF
05-27-2009, 05:05 PM
Except its not bingo because that wasn't the question I was answering. Smart pitcher, yes. Better control, yes. Better stuff, on a consistent basis, yes. Better stuff when both are throwing their best? I am not so sure about that one.

Even if it were just three out of four, it makes Cueto the better pitcher now and in the future assuming health for both players.

But really it's four out of four as Bailey has never pitched a single game in his professional career as good as Cueto's MLB debut.

GIDP
05-27-2009, 05:25 PM
Not many pitchers in the history of baseball have thrown games as good as Cuetos MLB debut :laugh:

TRF
05-27-2009, 05:40 PM
Not many pitchers in the history of baseball have thrown games as good as Cuetos MLB debut :laugh:

kind of my point. if "throwing at your best" is the criteria, Bailey is screwed in that competition.

GIDP
05-27-2009, 06:30 PM
kind of my point. if "throwing at your best" is the criteria, Bailey is screwed in that competition.

Well if we are doing this game then Don Larsen is better than Cueto also.

dougdirt
05-27-2009, 06:35 PM
Better body obviously, but arm? Just based on what I've seen from Bailey at the major league level, Cueto seems to consistently throw harder and with more movement.

I will give you that, but like you said, thats the major league level. I have seen Bailey over the past few years in AAA with stuff that on that day, he would dominate major leaguers with.

As for the more movement thing, its all a matter of how you look at it. Bailey gets a lot more sink on his FB, but Cueto gets a bit more movement side to side. They are two different types of pitches. And really, they throw about as hard as each other.

TRF
05-28-2009, 09:42 AM
As for the more movement thing, its all a matter of how you look at it. Bailey gets a lot more sink on his FB, but Cueto gets a bit more movement side to side. They are two different types of pitches. And really, they throw about as hard as each other.

That's the first time I've seen you post that regarding how hard they throw. Probably because Cueto is maturing as a pitcher, and a person, while Bailey hasn't.

And i'm not talking personality.

Homer's biggest problem has almost nothing to do with himself. He's been completely mismanaged his entire professional career. He had no business making that spot start. If the idea was to give him a taste to spur him, well, that was pretty dumb. He's had plenty of tastes, he needs development.

nate
05-28-2009, 09:49 AM
That's the first time I've seen you post that regarding how hard they throw. Probably because Cueto is maturing as a pitcher, and a person, while Bailey hasn't.

And i'm not talking personality.

Homer's biggest problem has almost nothing to do with himself. He's been completely mismanaged his entire professional career. He had no business making that spot start. If the idea was to give him a taste to spur him, well, that was pretty dumb. He's had plenty of tastes, he needs development.

I do agree that the Reds haven't developed him properly. It might end up that when he "gets it," it won't be with the Reds.

M2
05-28-2009, 11:43 AM
Better body obviously, but arm? Just based on what I've seen from Bailey at the major league level, Cueto seems to consistently throw harder and with more movement.

I'll even go beyond arm, I'm not sure Bailey has the better body.

What's that based on? Bailey's taller? My take on that is "so what?" Does he have more fast twitch muscle fiber? I sincerely doubt it. Does he have stronger legs? No, in fact that's one of Bailey's main problems and Cueto's main strengths. Does he have better core strength or better lung capacity?

Extra leverage never hurts, but, per what you said in terms of arms, Cueto's body has allowed him to the throw quality, consistent major league pitches at a young age. Bailey's body hasn't been able to do that. Cueto might just be a more athletic, stronger guy. I'll take that over height.