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Kc61
04-29-2009, 09:28 PM
Ten and ten. 7-3 on road. 3-7 at home. Yes, that's correct. Offense weak, pitching not bad, defense spotty of late.

Offense - next to last in NL in major stats. OPS (.684), BA (.233), SLG (.370). OBP is third worst in league at .314. Still, OPS of .684 is better than was after ten games (.652).

Votto top hitter on team by far among leaders in NL in BA, RBI, and other categories, but Bruce has shown flashes of late as have Nix, Hernandez and some bench guys. Gonzo at .167, Phillips at .191, and EE at .127 on DL. That's three regulars still below Mendoza line, all from right side of the plate.

Pitching - Team ERA is 4.32 (after ten games was 5.11), now 8th best in NL, a little better than the NL average. BA against is also 8th best in league. Oddly, team is 13th in striking people out and has the 6th most walks. Still, overall, if kept up, pitching shows big improvement over last few years.

Cueto at 2.19 with two recent great outings. Harang at 3.09 and Owings 3.78 solid. Volquez and Arroyo over 6, but both are better than that and V throwing a great game so far in game 21. Weathers and Rhodes still with zero ERAs, Cordero a recent bad outing but has six saves (add one more in game 21). Lincoln at 15.12 ERA and 2.88 WHIP. Needs to get it going.

Fielding - Reds now have 18 errors and a Fielding PCT of .976. Only Washington and St. Louis with worse numbers. After ten games FPCT was .984, so it's quite a bit worse. Three errors each for Dickerson, Votto, EE.
Somebody else can plug in the more sophisticated defensive stats. But Reds have made more than their share of errors of late.

Will continue to try and update as season progresses.

*BaseClogger*
04-29-2009, 10:24 PM
Tonight has me excited about this team. I see Rosales and Nix as decent options to help this team be successful, with Nix getting a portion of the ABs in LF and supplying some offense and Rosales helping out in the infield. I'd like to see Rosales stick at 3B permanently until one of the guys from the minors is ready. Meanwhile, I would rehab EE for LF and have him quasi-platoon with Nix out there. Hairston's days with my club would be numbered...

15fan
04-29-2009, 10:52 PM
When the Reds score 4 or more runs, they are 7-1.

When the Reds score 3 or fewer runs, they are 4-8.

In 2009, scoring 0-3 runs in 3 out of every 5 games isn't going to cut it.

OnBaseMachine
04-29-2009, 11:33 PM
Tonight has me excited about this team. I see Rosales and Nix as decent options to help this team be successful, with Nix getting a portion of the ABs in LF and supplying some offense and Rosales helping out in the infield. I'd like to see Rosales stick at 3B permanently until one of the guys from the minors is ready. Meanwhile, I would rehab EE for LF and have him quasi-platoon with Nix out there. Hairston's days with my club would be numbered...

I agree. I like Rosales at third base. He's a good defender over there, IMO, and I think his bat is good enough to play 3B. Who knows, maybe he's the next Chris Sabo. ;)

I also like the idea of putting EdE in left field.

Falls City Beer
05-02-2009, 11:02 AM
RS: 82 RA: 92

Through 22 games. I expect the offense to improve a bit the next couple of games with two middling righties on the mound. And I doubt the Pirates go too crazy on offense with McLouth still a bit gimpy. The RS/RA might actually be improved by the end of the weekend, but even if it maintains, it's not awful, and not irremediable.

pahster
05-02-2009, 11:15 AM
Fielding - Reds now have 18 errors and a Fielding PCT of .976. Only Washington and St. Louis with worse numbers. After ten games FPCT was .984, so it's quite a bit worse. Three errors each for Dickerson, Votto, EE.
Somebody else can plug in the more sophisticated defensive stats. But Reds have made more than their share of errors of late.


The Reds' defense has actually been exceedingly good despite the errors. Their defensive efficiency is .714, which is good for third best in majors. Last year they were second to last at .673. The best team in 2008 was Tamba Bay, which put up a total of .710.

Kc61
05-02-2009, 11:25 AM
RS: 82 RA: 92

Through 22 games. I expect the offense to improve a bit the next couple of games with two middling righties on the mound. And I doubt the Pirates go too crazy on offense with McLouth still a bit gimpy. The RS/RA might actually be improved by the end of the weekend, but even if it maintains, it's not awful, and not irremediable.


If the pitching keeps up, looks to me like the Reds could be one major bat from being a contender for the Central.

Right now, team has 3.92 ERA, fourth best in the league. Even if this number gets a bit worse, it's really a great number considering the team's pitching stats over the past several years.

Scrap Irony
05-02-2009, 11:29 AM
What does that work out to in terms of Pythagorean-- 9-13? 10-12?

pahster
05-02-2009, 11:35 AM
What does that work out to in terms of Pythagorean-- 9-13? 10-12?

10-12

nate
05-02-2009, 12:04 PM
RS: 82 RA: 92

Through 22 games. I expect the offense to improve a bit the next couple of games with two middling righties on the mound. And I doubt the Pirates go too crazy on offense with McLouth still a bit gimpy. The RS/RA might actually be improved by the end of the weekend, but even if it maintains, it's not awful, and not irremediable.

True. But it is the sort of thing that's like a leaky boat. I do think they can keep it close and would be thrilled if if would actually be out of the red.

So to speak!

OnBaseMachine
05-02-2009, 01:07 PM
I don't see the Reds posting a strong RS/RA differential this season, or at least until the offense is upgraded. The offense is just so bad and doesn't have the ability to blow out teams. Take the last two games for instance. The Reds shutout their opponents in both games, which created a perfect opportunity for the Reds to make up ground in their RS/RA differential. The Reds scored a total of seven runs in those two games. They could've scored at least five more runs, but the offense blew so many chances. Plus, there's going to be games when the pitching is roughed up. I think our best hope for now is to outplay our Pythagorean and hope that Walt acquires a bat or two sometime soon.

jojo
05-02-2009, 01:09 PM
RS: 82 RA: 92

Through 22 games. I expect the offense to improve a bit the next couple of games with two middling righties on the mound. And I doubt the Pirates go too crazy on offense with McLouth still a bit gimpy. The RS/RA might actually be improved by the end of the weekend, but even if it maintains, it's not awful, and not irremediable.

The Reds are cheating the Pythagorean...... I hope nobody tells Raisor.

Caveat Emperor
05-02-2009, 01:15 PM
The Reds are cheating the Pythagorean...... I hope nobody tells Raisor.

The 2009 Reds seem, intuitively, like a team that will be slightly better than their Pythag for most of the year -- given that they're built on winning close games with great pitching.

They're basically conceding the shoot-outs and concentrating on winning the 4-2 / 3-1 games.

Will M
05-02-2009, 01:22 PM
The 2009 Reds seem, intuitively, like a team that will be slightly better than their Pythag for most of the year -- given that they're built on winning close games with great pitching.

They're basically conceding the shoot-outs and concentrating on winning the 4-2 / 3-1 games.

didn't the D backs do something like this in 2007?

the Reds have a good defense & a good back end of the bullpen.
makes sense that they are likely to hang on to win the close games & outwin their Pythag.

jojo
05-02-2009, 01:26 PM
The 2009 Reds seem, intuitively, like a team that will be slightly better than their Pythag for most of the year -- given that they're built on winning close games with great pitching.

They're basically conceding the shoot-outs and concentrating on winning the 4-2 / 3-1 games.

Well I hope they OK'd it with Raiser beforehand.

Raisor
05-02-2009, 01:38 PM
Well I hope they OK'd it with Raiser beforehand.


They did not.

And it's RAISOR, JeJe.

:thumbup:

jojo
05-02-2009, 01:44 PM
They did not.

And it's RAISOR, JeJe.

:thumbup:


RAISOR isn't in my browser's spellchecker....you should probably look into that too... :cool:

I have been thinking about getting "RAISOR" tattooed on my left bicep though maybe having it kind of serpentine through the eye sockets of a skull with a baseball between it's teeth.

TheNext44
05-02-2009, 01:52 PM
didn't the D backs do something like this in 2007?

the Reds have a good defense & a good back end of the bullpen.
makes sense that they are likely to hang on to win the close games & outwin their Pythag.

Teams with very strong and deep pitching, including a dominant pen, who play very solid fundamentals and can manufacture runs, have a history of occasionally beating the Pythag by a big margin.

08 Angels +12
07 D-Backs +11
05 D-Backs +11
01 Mariners +7
89 Astros +7
79 Astros +8

Gives some hope to this team.

Just as a side note, this should not be a game plan, it is far easier to win by simply scoring more than you give up. But if you do have a offensively challenged team, strong pitching, fundamentals and manufacturing runs is not a bad way to go.

remdog
05-02-2009, 02:02 PM
If the pitching keeps up, looks to me like the Reds could be one major bat from being a contender for the Central.

That's what many people were saying in the off season. Didn't happen then. Have doubts that it will happen now.

Rem

fearofpopvol1
05-02-2009, 03:55 PM
another interesting stat (even though it's early in the season)...the Reds are 8-3 on the road so far. that's best in the majors.

cincrazy
05-02-2009, 04:05 PM
didn't the D backs do something like this in 2007?

the Reds have a good defense & a good back end of the bullpen.
makes sense that they are likely to hang on to win the close games & outwin their Pythag.

I really don't think this team has a good defense. Not yet anyways. The potential is there to have a better defense, but so far they're giving teams way too many outs per inning.

Will M
05-02-2009, 05:47 PM
I really don't think this team has a good defense. Not yet anyways. The potential is there to have a better defense, but so far they're giving teams way too many outs per inning.

I think the defense so far has been pretty good. Someone has posted that based on some new fangled stat the Reds defense is 3rd best in the majors.

Rosales >>> EE (defensively)

Hopefully Dickerson's clunkers are behind him.

If Dusty would start playing Janish more or at least put him in when we have a lead late the defense would be even better.