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OnBaseMachine
04-30-2009, 01:03 AM
Anyone else think Laynce Nix should start every day vs RHP, at least until he cools off? If he does. After tonight, Nix is hitting .310/.355/.621 - .976 with six extra-base hits (4 2B, 1 3B, 1 HR) in 29 atbats. He's always had the ability, but injuries have held him back. Who knows, maybe he's the next Ryan Ludwick or Nelson Cruz. I'm a big Dickerson fan, but Nix should get the bulk of the starts in left field vs right handers. Dickerson becomes the 4th outfielder and gets some starts in CF.

Also, it's time for the Reds to find another right handed bat to platoon in left field. Jerry Hairston Jr. just isn't getting it done. Jonny Gomes and Wes Bankston are probably the best in house options at this point.

One other thing, if Adam Rosales plays well at third base for the next three weeks, I'd start having EdE work out in left field. I really like what Rosales brings to the team.

Kc61
04-30-2009, 01:16 AM
Small sample size all around.

Hairston has 39 at bats this year.
Nix has 29.
Dickerson has 44.
Rosales has 2 official MLB at bats this year.

They should all continue to get opportunities. With EE out, with Dickerson perhaps still out, there will be more opportunities to go around. Righties will be used against lefty pitching, and vice versa.

But it's a mistake to make permanent changes based on a few games. I'm not ditching Hairston or Dickerson just yet. I'm not installing Wes Bankston just yet. Or Gomes.

As for Nix, he should continue to get at bats against righties, but it's a bit harsh to replace Dickerson after 44 at bats.

OnBaseMachine
04-30-2009, 01:19 AM
It's not a small sample size with Jerry Hairston Jr. He has a career .698 OPS in 3,229 plate appearances at the major league level. Outside of 261 atbats last season, Hairston has proven he can't hit major league pitching.

I'm not saying Dickerson shouldn't get any atbats. I like the guy, I'm one of his biggest fans. I just think Laynce Nix should get the bulk of the playing time in left field right now while he's crushing the ball. Play the hot hand.

kaldaniels
04-30-2009, 01:22 AM
It's not a small sample size with Jerry Hairston Jr. He has a career .698 OPS in 3,229 plate appearances at the major league level. Outside of 261 atbats last season, Hairston has proven he can't hit major league pitching.

Devils Advocate - we all know there is such a thing as a small sample size...but there is also a too large sample size. I don't care what JHJ did in his first 2000 career ABs...just what he has done over the past 2-3 years is fine for me.

That said, I don't like what JHJ brings to the table either. :D

*BaseClogger*
04-30-2009, 01:24 AM
*BaseClogger* and Highlifeman21 approve this message! :thumbup:

SMcGavin
04-30-2009, 01:25 AM
It's not a small sample size with Jerry Hairston Jr. He has a career .698 OPS in 3,229 plate appearances at the major league level. Outside of 261 atbats last season, Hairston has proven he can't hit major league pitching.

I'm not saying Dickerson shouldn't get any atbats. I like the guy, I'm one of his biggest fans. I just think Laynce Nix should get the bulk of the playing time in left field right now while he's crushing the ball. Play the hot hand.

You're right about Hairston, but to be fair Nix's career numbers are even worse.

*BaseClogger*
04-30-2009, 01:27 AM
You're right about Hairston, but to be fair Nix's career numbers are even worse.

Check out the minor league numbers before he got called up in Texas. He skipped AAA and was rushed by the Rangers. I think he is ready to break out. Besides, an .800 OPS and good defense would be a HUGE upgrade over what the other forecast calls for...

Kc61
04-30-2009, 01:31 AM
It's not a small sample size with Jerry Hairston Jr. He has a career .698 OPS in 3,229 plate appearances at the major league level. Outside of 261 atbats last season, Hairston has proven he can't hit major league pitching.

.

Just because that statement has been repeated a hundred times doesn't make it true. Hairston's 2008 happened. Just last year. It wasn't a fiction. He needs to settle down, he's overanxious right now. Last year he was more selective.

Laynce Nix's baseball card isn't going to the hall of fame either.

None of these players is a proven starter. So they get chances throughout the year and, if anyone shows consistency, he gets more chances. That's what happened with Hairston last year, and he made good.

Reliance on 29 or 39 or 44 at bats as definitive proof is a mistake.

OnBaseMachine
04-30-2009, 01:33 AM
You're right about Hairston, but to be fair Nix's career numbers are even worse.

While that's true, roughly 780 of his 900 career major league atbats came between ages 22-24. Some guys just aren't ready to play in the majors at that age. Nix spent all of 2002 in High-A, began 2003 in Double-A where he posted an .831 OPS in 375 atbats, and then he was promoted straight to the majors. He also suffered a major shoulder injury in 2005 and was forced to undergo surgery to repair a torn labrum. Guys like Ryan Ludwick and Nelson Cruz were miserable in their first few big league seasons too.

SMcGavin
04-30-2009, 01:33 AM
Check out the minor league numbers before he got called up in Texas. He skipped AAA and was rushed by the Rangers. I think he is ready to break out. Besides, an .800 OPS and good defense would be a HUGE upgrade over what the other forecast calls for...

Yeah, I don't think he's a bad hitter. His AAA numbers show him as a guy with pop but struggles getting on base. I think he could probably OPS .750 in the bigs, but is that good enough for a platoon LF? I also thought he was supposed to be a poor fielder, am I wrong on that?

Basically, I like Nix as a bench guy, but at this point I prefer Dickerson as a starter.

OnBaseMachine
04-30-2009, 01:36 AM
Just because that statement has been repeated a hundred times doesn't make it true. Hairston's 2008 happened. Just last year. It wasn't a fiction. He needs to settle down, he's overanxious right now. Last year he was more selective.


Yes, it's true. Hairston has a career .698 OPS in 2,830 career major league atbats. Don't believe me, check for yourself.

http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/h/hairsje02.shtml?redir

OnBaseMachine
04-30-2009, 01:38 AM
Yeah, I don't think he's a bad hitter. His AAA numbers show him as a guy with pop but struggles getting on base. I think he could probably OPS .750 in the bigs, but is that good enough for a platoon LF? I also thought he was supposed to be a poor fielder, am I wrong on that?

Basically, I like Nix as a bench guy, but at this point I prefer Dickerson as a starter.

According to UZR, Nix is a career +19.6 defender in CF in 1,714 innings.

*BaseClogger*
04-30-2009, 01:39 AM
Yeah, I don't think he's a bad hitter. His AAA numbers show him as a guy with pop but struggles getting on base. I think he could probably OPS .750 in the bigs, but is that good enough for a platoon LF? I also thought he was supposed to be a poor fielder, am I wrong on that?

Basically, I like Nix as a bench guy, but at this point I prefer Dickerson as a starter.

He's supposed to be a good defender. He came up as a CF and UZR has him positive in his spotty time in the majors.

As for the hitting, I don't think a .800 OPS is out of reach in GABP. The projection systems viewed him as a .265/.320/.480 threat and I don't see that as unreasonable...

WVPacman
04-30-2009, 01:41 AM
I agree with OBM on this subject I to think Nix should get ALOT more playing time.Look I like Dickerson but facts are facts and Nix is playing 10 times better than Dickerson right now.You should always go with the hot hand if you want to win and right now that hot hand is Nix.He is knocking the cover off the ball and I think he should be in that starting lineup everyday atleast againist the righties.

WMR
04-30-2009, 01:58 AM
Anyone else think Laynce Nix should start every day vs RHP, at least until he cools off? If he does. After tonight, Nix is hitting .310/.355/.621 - .976 with six extra-base hits (4 2B, 1 3B, 1 HR) in 29 atbats. He's always had the ability, but injuries have held him back. Who knows, maybe he's the next Ryan Ludwick or Nelson Cruz. I'm a big Dickerson fan, but Nix should get the bulk of the starts in left field vs right handers. Dickerson becomes the 4th outfielder and gets some starts in CF.

Also, it's time for the Reds to find another right handed bat to platoon in left field. Jerry Hairston Jr. just isn't getting it done. Jonny Gomes and Wes Bankston are probably the best in house options at this point.

One other thing, if Adam Rosales plays well at third base for the next three weeks, I'd start having EdE work out in left field. I really like what Rosales brings to the team.

Perfectly reasonable on all counts.

Razor Shines
04-30-2009, 03:09 AM
Devils Advocate - we all know there is such a thing as a small sample size...but there is also a too large sample size. I don't care what JHJ did in his first 2000 career ABs...just what he has done over the past 2-3 years is fine for me.
That said, I don't like what JHJ brings to the table either. :D

Doesn't make a lot of sense but here you go: .251/.313/.363 - .676 OPS.

You wanna keep going smaller until you see something you like? :D

Razor Shines
04-30-2009, 03:16 AM
Small sample size all around.

Hairston has 39 at bats this year.
Nix has 29.
Dickerson has 44.
Rosales has 2 official MLB at bats this year.

They should all continue to get opportunities. With EE out, with Dickerson perhaps still out, there will be more opportunities to go around. Righties will be used against lefty pitching, and vice versa.

But it's a mistake to make permanent changes based on a few games. I'm not ditching Hairston or Dickerson just yet. I'm not installing Wes Bankston just yet. Or Gomes.

As for Nix, he should continue to get at bats against righties, but it's a bit harsh to replace Dickerson after 44 at bats.

I'm absolutely for ditching Hairston and/or McDonald for Gomes and/or Bankston.

I'd never let Gomes have an AB versus a right hander, but I'd sure get him up there plenty vs. lefties.

Topcat
04-30-2009, 03:40 AM
I say give him the PT, I am going to avoid stats etc and point to the red's good fortune over past few years to find reclamation guys who seem to put it all together playin in the Queen City. the tools are there with Nix that cannot be denied.

Ron Madden
04-30-2009, 05:04 AM
Nix has looked a whole lot better at the plate than I thought he would. Might as well see what he can do.

Jpup
04-30-2009, 08:11 AM
Nix has looked a whole lot better at the plate than I thought he would. Might as well see what he can do.

He has really impressed me thus far. Let him hit until he stops and then split the playing time between Tavares, Dickerson, and Nix. I would like to see McDonald punted for Gomes too.

cumberlandreds
04-30-2009, 08:37 AM
Play the hot bat. Nix is hot so play him until he cools off then go with next hot bat.

HokieRed
04-30-2009, 09:14 AM
What Dusty's got to do is a little more complex than any of us tends to acknowledge as we're always cutting one guy and adding some other or benching this one for that etc. He's got to try to get contributions from Nix, Rosales, EE, JHJ, CD etc. because this team's offense is marginal. What's a little bit encouraging to me is that I do see baby steps toward the place where we can expect some offensive contribution from all 8 positions. Phillips is heating up a bit, as is Gonzo; Ramon already has; and we now understand that EE has probably just needed some recuperation time. It looks possible that Rosales and Nix may be able to make a contribution and JHJ has shown at least some ability to do that in the past, as has CD, though in a much smaller sample. What we can't have, it seems to me, is what we've had too much of in the first month: stretches of games where we are getting absolutely nothing out of a good percentage of the lineup, especially in those key middle spots in the order.

SirFelixCat
04-30-2009, 09:18 AM
Play the hot bat. Nix is hot so play him until he cools off then go with next hot bat.

Pretty much my take on things.


IMO, the guys who should be playing every day are:

Votto - 1B
Phillips - 2B (had a good game 2 games ago...)
Janish - SS (not gonna happen, but man, AG has been a blackhole)
Rosales - 3B
Nix - LF
Willy T - CF
Bruce - RF
Hernandez - C (although hanigan should be starting more than just BA's starts).

Chip R
04-30-2009, 10:36 AM
Nix has looked a whole lot better at the plate than I thought he would. Might as well see what he can do.


He was about the only guy to hit a ball hard against Paulino last night.

Sea Ray
04-30-2009, 11:05 AM
Small sample size all around.

Hairston has 39 at bats this year.
Nix has 29.
Dickerson has 44.
Rosales has 2 official MLB at bats this year.

They should all continue to get opportunities. With EE out, with Dickerson perhaps still out, there will be more opportunities to go around. Righties will be used against lefty pitching, and vice versa.

But it's a mistake to make permanent changes based on a few games. I'm not ditching Hairston or Dickerson just yet. I'm not installing Wes Bankston just yet. Or Gomes.

As for Nix, he should continue to get at bats against righties, but it's a bit harsh to replace Dickerson after 44 at bats.


There no such thing as a permanent change in this discussion. The closest thing to permanent in baseball is when you sign someone for big money, but that's not the case with any of these options.

So far no one has been "getting the job done" in LF so yes, Nix should be given the job for now. Let's see what he can do with the opportunity. Ditto for Rosales at 3B

Sea Ray
04-30-2009, 11:12 AM
I agree with OBM on this subject I to think Nix should get ALOT more playing time.Look I like Dickerson but facts are facts and Nix is playing 10 times better than Dickerson right now.You should always go with the hot hand if you want to win and right now that hot hand is Nix.He is knocking the cover off the ball and I think he should be in that starting lineup everyday atleast againist the righties.

I agree. There are times around here that folks try to make this game more complicated than it really is. Who cares if he projects to a .740 OPS or whatever? Just play him for now and let's see how he does. Dickerson will get his opportunities. We're not discussing whether to sign him to a long term contract, just whether to play the guy for awhile.

OldRightHander
04-30-2009, 11:22 AM
Play the hot hand and milk it for what you can.

GAC
04-30-2009, 11:27 AM
Don't really know if it's an issue of SHOULD he when we don't have a lot of in-house options right now for LF.

It's obvious, since his poor play, that CDick is in Dusty's dog house. Of course I don't think Dusty was that high on this kid to begin with. In ST he would always talk highly of Dickerson when asked; but he also always had an extra comment or two to make that gave me the impression he wasn't sold on this kid, and was going to be on a short leash.

We don't know if Nix can hit. And the guy is built like a middle LBer, but doesn't seem to possess the speed and agility. So we could be sticking a poor facsimile of Adam Dunn out there. ;)

Sea Ray
04-30-2009, 11:32 AM
We don't know if Nix can hit. And the guy is built like a middle LBer, but doesn't seem to possess the speed and agility. So we could be sticking a poor facsimile of Adam Dunn out there. ;)

I've never known Dunn to play CF.

GAC
04-30-2009, 11:51 AM
I've never known Dunn to play CF.

No, but he has ran over a few. ;)

But I was referring to where Nix has been playing for us.... LF.

I don't know much about Nix at all, other then he's 28, and has played in less then 40 games since 2006.

His 162 game average isn't anything to brag about....

24 BB 144 K .236 BA .272 OB% .405 SLG .677 OPS

He better turn it on sooner or later, because he ain't getting any younger.

fearofpopvol1
04-30-2009, 11:58 AM
Nix does not strike me as a legitimate full time player, but as a platoon guy, I'm all for it. I would prefer him over Hairston for sure.

membengal
04-30-2009, 12:07 PM
Nix does not strike me as a legitimate full time player, but as a platoon guy, I'm all for it. I would prefer him over Hairston for sure.

Wrong side of the platoon. Would you prefer him over Dickerson? At this point, I would like to see Nix get a shot for awhile, myself.

Chip R
04-30-2009, 12:12 PM
I've never known Dunn to play CF.


I could have sworn he played CF a few games in the minors. Maybe even a game while he was here.

bucksfan2
04-30-2009, 12:19 PM
Nix does not strike me as a legitimate full time player, but as a platoon guy, I'm all for it. I would prefer him over Hairston for sure.

Why?

IIRC there was a poll a few weeks ago about when Nix should get his first start. I answered never. I didn't think he should get the start over Dickerson, who I felt should be getting as many starts as possible. The more I watch Nix game the more I am impressed with it. He may be a fluke but his at bats are solid. He works the count, takes pitches, makes the pitcher work, and has been hitting line drives all over the place. Earlier this week I heard a stat that he was 2nd on the team in doubles to Joey Votto with his handful of at bats. With the exception of Votto, Nix has had the most impressive at bats of any Red.

Nix is 28 years old and once was a top prospect until he ran into a wall and hurt his shoulder. He is still relitively young, runs well, plays good defense, and has pop in his bat. Maybe the shoulder is finally healthy and Nix is ready to break out. Thats doubtful but until he proves otherwise I keep plugging him into the lineup.

fearofpopvol1
04-30-2009, 12:21 PM
Wrong side of the platoon. Would you prefer him over Dickerson? At this point, I would like to see Nix get a shot for awhile, myself.

Yes I would actually. I'd prefer Dickerson platoon with Wily in CF (a longshot I know) and then the Reds bring up Dorn to platoon with Nix (an even BIGGER longshot) or find someone else to go with Nix in LF.

fearofpopvol1
04-30-2009, 12:23 PM
Why?

IIRC there was a poll a few weeks ago about when Nix should get his first start. I answered never. I didn't think he should get the start over Dickerson, who I felt should be getting as many starts as possible. The more I watch Nix game the more I am impressed with it. He may be a fluke but his at bats are solid. He works the count, takes pitches, makes the pitcher work, and has been hitting line drives all over the place. Earlier this week I heard a stat that he was 2nd on the team in doubles to Joey Votto with his handful of at bats. With the exception of Votto, Nix has had the most impressive at bats of any Red.

Nix is 28 years old and once was a top prospect until he ran into a wall and hurt his shoulder. He is still relitively young, runs well, plays good defense, and has pop in his bat. Maybe the shoulder is finally healthy and Nix is ready to break out. Thats doubtful but until he proves otherwise I keep plugging him into the lineup.

I wouldn't say any stats back up my claim, he just doesn't strike me as a guy that can (or would) do well over 150 games. I do like him though and see him as an 80-90 game guy for sure.

OnBaseMachine
04-30-2009, 12:28 PM
Yes I would actually. I'd prefer Dickerson platoon with Wily in CF (a longshot I know) and then the Reds bring up Dorn to platoon with Nix (an even BIGGER longshot) or find someone else to go with Nix in LF.

Dorn and Nix are both left handed hitters so platooning them wouldn't work.

bucksfan2
04-30-2009, 12:51 PM
I wouldn't say any stats back up my claim, he just doesn't strike me as a guy that can (or would) do well over 150 games. I do like him though and see him as an 80-90 game guy for sure.

Can't argue with that. I just didn't know if their was concrete reason or not. I felt the same way earlier this year but have been impressed by his game so far this season.

smith288
04-30-2009, 01:24 PM
In the time I have watched the Reds this year, Dickerson looked nothing short of lost in most at bats.

Nix looks like he has a plan at the plate.

Big Klu
04-30-2009, 05:10 PM
I could have sworn he played CF a few games in the minors. Maybe even a game while he was here.

According to retrosheet.org, Adam Dunn has never played CF in the majors. Through 2008, he has made 949 appearances in LF, 127 at 1B, 82 in RF, and 10 at DH.

Chip R
04-30-2009, 05:16 PM
According to retrosheet.org, Adam Dunn has never played CF in the majors. Through 2008, he has made 949 appearances in LF, 127 at 1B, 82 in RF, and 10 at DH.


Yeah. I was thinking it may have been in the minors. I wouldn't swear to it, though.

Big Klu
04-30-2009, 05:23 PM
Nix looks like he has a plan at the plate.

I have liked what I have seen from Nix so far this season, and I was not high on him during spring training. A buddy of mine who is a Cardinals fan says that Nix is a Jocketty-type of player--decent pedigree, either fallen on hard times or past his prime, and provides better-than-expected production at low cost. He says that he could be the Reds' version of Ryan Ludwick.

I would like to see Nix get regular AB's vs. RHP, at least while he is hot. I like Votto and Bruce in the #3-4 slots, so Nix would fit in nicely at #6 (Six?). I would also like to see Phillips in the #2 spot ahead of Votto vs. RHP. Having Joey hitting behind him (and Taveras hopefully on base) would likely result in more fastballs and better pitches to hit. Taveras' base-stealing ability also would lessen the possibility of Brandon hitting into a DP.


What I would like to see (at least in the immediate future):

vs. RHP
Taveras cf
Phillips 2b
Votto 1b
Bruce rf
Hernandez c
Nix lf
Rosales 3b
Gonzalez ss
<pitcher>

vs. LHP
Taveras cf
Hairston lf
Votto 1b
Phillips 2b
Bruce rf
Hernandez c
Rosales 3b
Gonzalez ss
<pitcher>

Will M
04-30-2009, 05:24 PM
yes. he deserves it the way he has played. he should play LF vs RHP.
Dickerson is going to have to fight with Taveras for playing time in CF.

The RH part of a LF platoon is missing. Hairston ain't getting it done. Time to get either Gomes or Bankston up from AAA.

EE is hurt right now. He won't be back for ~6 weeks I would guess.
I would give this outfield a shot & play Rosales at 3B while EE is hurt.
Unless we can swing a trade this is likely the best we have in house.

vs RHP:
CF Dickerson (L) or Taveras
3B Rosales
1B Votto (L)
RF Bruce (L)
2B Phillips
LF Nix (L)
C Hernandez/Hanigan
SS Gonzo/Janish

vs LHP:
CF Taveras
3B Rosales
1B Votto (L)
2B Phillips
RF Bruce (L)
LF Gomes or Bankston
C Hernandez/Hanigan
SS Gonzo/Janish

Big Klu
04-30-2009, 05:33 PM
yes. he deserves it the way he has played. he should play LF vs RHP.
Dickerson is going to have to fight with Taveras for playing time in CF.

The RH part of a LF platoon is missing. Hairston ain't getting it done. Time to get either Gomes or Bankston up from AAA.

I was thinking that the Reds could use a Glenn Braggs-type RH power bat as a 4th OF--someone who could be a platoon starter in LF with Nix (or Dickerson). Gomes would be a good choice.

_Sir_Charles_
04-30-2009, 06:17 PM
It's not a small sample size with Jerry Hairston Jr. He has a career .698 OPS in 3,229 plate appearances at the major league level. Outside of 261 atbats last season, Hairston has proven he can't hit major league pitching.

Wasn't it said that Hairston was battling numerous injuries for many years prior to last season? That last season was his first really "healthy" year (yes, I recall his DL stints last year). Isn't it possible that he found his stroke and turned a corner last year? If there really were lots of troublesome injuries prior to last season, shouldn't we look at the healthy AB's rather than the injured ones?

And to be clear, no I don't think he's as good as his numbers were last year. But I do think he's better than what his career numbers indicate.

Kc61
04-30-2009, 06:47 PM
Wasn't it said that Hairston was battling numerous injuries for many years prior to last season? That last season was his first really "healthy" year (yes, I recall his DL stints last year). Isn't it possible that he found his stroke and turned a corner last year? If there really were lots of troublesome injuries prior to last season, shouldn't we look at the healthy AB's rather than the injured ones?

And to be clear, no I don't think he's as good as his numbers were last year. But I do think he's better than what his career numbers indicate.

I thought I was the only person on RedsZone even semi-defending Hairston. Welcome to the small club.

My concern about Hairston, since he didn't get off very well, is that he won't get that much playing time and it might be tough for him to turn things around.

Yet, having watched him play last year, I have confidence that, if he's healthy and gets his chances he will produce.

I think the key with Hairston is confidence and patience. Right now, he seems a bit overanxious, swinging perhaps at too many bad pitches, or good pitches he can't handle. But I'll never be convinced last year was just luck. He hit the ball too solidly and consistently over a relatively long period to call it luck. Just my view, which most obviously don't share.

P.S. I know his lifetime stats.

_Sir_Charles_
04-30-2009, 06:56 PM
I agree. It's a slump. No more, no less. He produced quality AB's over too long a stretch last season for it to be a fluke. Getting a high average because of seeing eye groundballs is a fluke. But it was one quality ab after another from him last season. Add into that his versatility and his speed, and I've got no problem with that signing this past off season. It's not like it was a bank breaking deal or anything. It's just getting blown out of proportion because he's currently slumping. Just like people were starting to rag on Bruce prior to him sitting during the Houston series. Slumping players are easy targets. I just try to stay positive and look at the bigger picture. We're over .500 and we've not come close to hitting full stride yet.

nate
04-30-2009, 07:11 PM
I feel a song coming on!

One of these things is not like the others,

http://www.fangraphs.com/graphs/144_2BOF_season_mini_0_20090429.png

One of these things just doesn't belong,

http://www.fangraphs.com/graphs/144_2BOF_season_mini_2_20090429.png

Can you tell which thing is not like the others

http://www.fangraphs.com/graphs/144_2BOF_season_mini_1_20090429.png

By the time I finish my song?

http://www.fangraphs.com/graphs/144_2BOF_season_mini_7_20090429.png

OnBaseMachine
04-30-2009, 07:14 PM
I agree. It's a slump. No more, no less. He produced quality AB's over too long a stretch last season for it to be a fluke.

Yeah, a career slump. The Reds will be in serious trouble if Hairston is still part of the left field platoon a month from now.

M2
04-30-2009, 07:43 PM
Nix will get playing time via the Smith-Barney method: he's got to earn it. So far that's just what he's doing.

At the very least, he should be a good 250-PA guy off the bench.

_Sir_Charles_
04-30-2009, 07:48 PM
I didn't need the graphs. I've seen his career stats. But did any of you bother to read my post? Wasn't it verified that he had a long problem with injuries while in baltimore/chi/tex? Shouldn't we take those years injured with a grain of salt? Shouldn't we give the guy the benefit of the doubt considering he's ON the Reds right now?

What exactly is it that you guys are expecting from Hairston? What exactly would make you happy? Is there some magic number that he must obtain that would make him a legitimate bench player? Some OPS goalline that he's got to cross? Well, me being oblivious to saberstats (not really oblivious...I just don't really care about them), I've got no idea what a "good" OPS is supposed to be for a specific type of player.

Let me put it another way....when he was going well last season, were either of you mad that he was a part of the club? Cheering for a guy when he's doing well and then bashing a guy when he's struggling is pretty much bandwagoning in my book. I'm more of the diehard variety. I stick with them through thick AND thin. And I've seen enough AB's from him to feel confident that he'll turn it around. Regardless of his current OPS or career OBLDS%+. :O)


One last thing. Why is it that we're bashing Hairston, but praising Nix? Has Nix done something during his career that I'm unaware of? Something that makes people think that HE'LL be an over .700 OPS guy? 904 career ab's...30 hr's, .682 ops, 44 walks, and ... wait for it .... 256 k's. If we're looking at career numbers...then between the two, Hairston's our guy. But since we're only pretending to talk about career numbers and are really just plugging for the current flavor of the month who's not in a slump, I'll let it slide. *grin*

M2
04-30-2009, 08:07 PM
Shouldn't we take those years injured with a grain of salt?

No, you don't take an 11-year career and 3,000 plate appearances with a grain of salt. That's beyond silly.

OnBaseMachine
04-30-2009, 08:13 PM
No, you don't take an 11-year career and 3,000 plate appearances with a grain of salt. That's beyond silly.

Exactly. Jerry Hairston Jr. is simply not a good hitter. There were plenty of better options available than Hairston, but Jocketty and Baker fell for his 261 atbats last season. I'll say it again, the Reds offense will be in serious trouble if Jerry Hairston Jr. is still apart of the platoon in left field a month from now.

_Sir_Charles_
04-30-2009, 08:19 PM
No, you don't take an 11-year career and 3,000 plate appearances with a grain of salt. That's beyond silly.

I wasn't referring to his entire career. Only the periods where he played injured. I thought somewhere it was stated when he was injured. I just can't seem to find it.

But regardless, even if we DON'T take the injuries into account. He's still out performed Laynce Nix over his career. But Nix is playing well and Hairston is struggling...therefore it's bandwagon time for Nix and time for the dogpile where everyone jumps on Hairston.

Let me be clear here. I don't want Jerry as a starter. But I also don't want Nix as one either. I just can't stand it when people bash a player as total garbage and not deserving to be a major leaguer just because that player is in a slump. Just a pet peeve of mine I guess. Both players have roles on this club, but neither are a savior just because they start hitting well just like neither are the plague because they're struggling.

_Sir_Charles_
04-30-2009, 08:21 PM
Exactly. Jerry Hairston Jr. is simply not a good hitter. There were plenty of better options available than Hairston, but Jocketty and Baker fell for his 261 atbats last season. I'll say it again, the Reds offense will be in serious trouble if Jerry Hairston Jr. is still apart of the platoon in left field a month from now.

I guess we'll have to agree to disagree then.

And who would YOU have as a part of the lf platoon a month from now? Nix? He seems to be your new favorite. Where in Nix's past has he proven to be a "good hitter" as you say Hairston isn't? Is Nix that better option? Is Gomes that better option?

I guess it depends upon what you're wanting for that roster spot. If it's a pinch hitter, then I don't care about the power. I want the guy who hits for the average in that slot. The strikeouts that go with those normal power hitters tend to make them much less valuable as pinch hitters. Nix & Gomes are both pretty decent examples of that. If it's versatility you want in that roster spot, then Hairston's the better choice. If it's a specific handedness that you want....take your pick. I personally think it's kind of silly to worry so much about lefty/righty matchups. I'd rather focus on the guy who's more well rounded.

OnBaseMachine
04-30-2009, 08:25 PM
I guess we'll have to agree to disagree then.

And who would YOU have as a part of the lf platoon a month from now? Nix? He seems to be your new favorite. Where in Nix's past has he proven to be a "good hitter" as you say Hairston isn't? Is Nix that better option?

You obviously didn't read any of my posts.

Like I've said plenty of times, I would call up Jonny Gomes to play left field vs lefties. He crushes left handers. Wes Bankston is also hitting well in Louisville. As for Nix, he's always had the ability but he's been held back by a shoulder injury. He's still just 28, so he has time to figure things out. Nelson Cruz and Ryan Ludwick didn't start hitting in the majors until they were 28. I'd still give Dickerson some playing time in LF, but Nix should get the bulk of the starts until he cools off, if he does.

OnBaseMachine
04-30-2009, 08:30 PM
Nix and Rosales the guys?
Posted by JohnFay at 4/30/2009 7:04 PM EDT on Cincinnati.com

In my off day story, I theorize that for the Reds to really compete they are going to need some offense from players they didn't expect to get much from. After last night, it looks like Adam Rosales and Laynce Nix will get a chance to be those guys.

Could they be? Sure. Will they be? Your guess is as good as mine.

They took very different paths. Nix was a one-time big prospect pushed off track by injuries. He hasn't had success in the big leagues since 2004. He's hitting .310/.355/.621 so far. It's only 29 at-bats, but no one else has produced in left. The platoon on Jerry Hairston and Chris Dickerson is hitting .190 with a homer and six RBI when they play left.

Rosales has never been a big time prospect. He does every well, but nothing jumps out at you other than his all-out hustle. (By the way, he's just a few months older than Edwin Encarnacion). With Encarnacion out, it can't hurt to try them. The two RBI Rosales produced last night? That's a quarter of the total the Reds have gotten from third base this year.

http://news.cincinnati.com/apps/pbcs.dll/section?category=blog07&plckController=Blog&plckScript=blogScript&plckElementId=blogDest&plckBlogPage=BlogViewPost&plckPostId=Blog%3ae57bcc87-152a-4f72-96fb-cc08b1f396efPost%3ae359ce27-52bd-4f64-bb73-2eda2374e945&sid=sitelife.cincinnati.com

_Sir_Charles_
04-30-2009, 08:36 PM
You obviously didn't read any of my posts.

Like I've said plenty of times, I would call up Jonny Gomes to play left field vs lefties. He crushes left handers. Wes Bankston is also hitting well in Louisville. As for Nix, he's always had the ability but he's been held back some by a shoulder injury. He's still just 28, so he has time to figure things out. Nelson Cruz and Ryan Ludwick didn't start hitting in the majors until they were 28.

Yeah, I had...just hadn't finished editing my post. Sorry.

So Nix was held back by injuries...so we let him slide but rake Hairston over the coals for playing with injuries? Odd train of thought there. But okay.

I've got no problem with Gomes being on the club, but he's got a rather big hole in his glove so his bat would have to be extraordinary to make up for it in my mind. And during ST, I certainly didn't see extraordinary...I saw ordinary with a bit of pop. And with the Bats...it's been more of the same. Leading the team in k's, hitting .260 or so and showing some pop. Not a horrible option but also not the solution.

Bankston is also producing nicely with the Bats, but with only around 50 or so MLB ab's and around 2500 minor league ab's, we don't really have much to go on with Wes. Is he a late bloomer (REALLY late) or is he just having that one "career" year for a career minor leaguer? Who knows. But if an opening comes up and he's still mashing the ball...sure, I give him a shot. And I give him one OVER Gomes at this rate. But again, I doubt that he's the solution. And again, Hairston's proven more on the big stage than either Nix or Bankston. Gomes is certainly a better hitter than Jerry, but has nowhere NEAR the defensive abilities, speed or versatility. And since we're talking about a bench player here...I think Jerry's skill set fits that role better. *shrugs* None of them are ideal. Far from it. But with the hand we're dealt, I think we're playing the right cards so far. Just getting dealt dueces (slumps). The cards will turn.

M2
04-30-2009, 08:53 PM
I thought somewhere it was stated when he was injured. I just can't seem to find it.

He gets injured all the time. He's fragile by nature. Yet he never had a single season anywhere near as good as his 2008 campaign. It's not like last season represented anything like what you should expect from a healthy Hairston.


But regardless, even if we DON'T take the injuries into account. He's still out performed Laynce Nix over his career. But Nix is playing well and Hairston is struggling...therefore it's bandwagon time for Nix and time for the dogpile where everyone jumps on Hairston.

Nix's major league career consists almost entirely of seasons when he was ages 22-24. He got called up too early and he struggled. However, he's got a career .827 OPS in the minors and he's been regularly above .850 in AAA the past three seasons (where his career OPS is .879 in 1,238 PA).

This has got nothing to do with who's hot and who's not. A lot of folks figured Nix at age 28 might have unrealized (in the majors) upside while Hairston, creeping up on age 33, was bound to regress to his career norms.

Rojo
04-30-2009, 09:05 PM
He gets injured all the time. He's fragile by nature.

Career first half OPS: .730, second half: .658.

_Sir_Charles_
04-30-2009, 09:10 PM
Okay, Hairston is over the hump and is on the downside of his career and won't repeat his 2008 stats. I'll buy that.

Nix has potential that he MAY reach even though he's 28. I'll even buy that.

But I still want no part of a bench player being the "answer" who still k's a ton. I still want no part of a bench player being the "answer" who has no defensive skills (Gomes). And I still want no part of a bench player being the "answer" who has only seen a handful of MLB plate appearances (Bankston).

These guys are hole-fillers (Hairston included). I don't expect great production from any of them. And since I'm only going to get/expect average to mediocre production at the plate, I want solid versitility off the plate. McDonald gives me speed & solid d at all 3 OF slots. Hairston gives me speed & solid d at several slots (if & of). Nix has some power and a hot bat so we ride him. Other than that, we bide our time until Frazier/Stubbs/Francisco/Valiaka/etc are ready to provide REAL answers.

I'm just saying let's not demonize Hairston for being in a slump. He's far from being a drag on the club. He still provides some needed versatility on this club.

M2
04-30-2009, 09:34 PM
But I still want no part of a bench player being the "answer" who still k's a ton.

Who bloody cares? I grew up watching Mike Schmidt. He K-ed a ton and he's the best 3B ever to play the game. If Nix is going to get on base and hit for power and play quality defense then big whoop if when he makes an out it's by strikeout. I can see being reticent to hand the job to an unproven player (though that's all the Reds have) and it's perfectly reasonable to take the position that the Reds are going to have to spread around the playing time in OF, but grousing that a guy with some power strikes out is a completely bogus complaint. The two tend walk hand-in-hand.

_Sir_Charles_
04-30-2009, 09:53 PM
Who bloody cares? I grew up watching Mike Schmidt. He K-ed a ton and he's the best 3B ever to play the game. If Nix is going to get on base and hit for power and play quality defense then big whoop if when he makes an out it's by strikeout. I can see being reticent to hand the job to an unproven player (though that's all the Reds have) and it's perfectly reasonable to take the position that the Reds are going to have to spread around the playing time in OF, but grousing that a guy with some power strikes out is a completely bogus complaint. The two tend walk hand-in-hand.

I wasn't bashing Nix. But it's starting to sound as if he's the new flavor of the month and he's the answer to our LF problems. I'm rarely one to bandy around stats and such but one phrase I hear spouted over and over again by those who know the stats is "small sample size". The "if" in your statement about him getting on base, hitting for power and playing quality defense is a rather BIG "if", if you ask me. I'm nowhere close to being ready to say Nix is a better answer than Hairston/Dickerson/McDonald/Gomes or whoever. What I was commenting on was that in Nix's career (heads off to find some stats to back it up) of just over 900 ab's (not exactly a small sample size wouldn't you agree), he's hit .238 with only 30 homeruns (far from having great power), drawn only 44 walks (in 900 ab's that HORRIBLE) but k'd 256 times (quite a high number for 900 ab's). It just seems unfair to give Nix the benefit of the doubt because of his injuries in the past hampering his abilities, but not doing the same for Hairston. I'm not saying one is better than the other...just that neither is the answer.

And yeah, Schmidt was great, but I'll take Brooks over Mike. :O)

WVRedsFan
04-30-2009, 10:34 PM
Who said play the hot hand? Oh yeah, a bunch of people. I'm with them. I've never understood letting a guy languish at .180 just because he's supposed to play a position. If the player doesn't hit or field well, play someone else who can.

Of course that's too simple.

Nix will not hit .350 all season. In fact, he might stink it up tomorrow, but if he does hit .350, he'll get offered a 2-year deal for mega millions and then stink it up. It's in the stars.

Redhook
04-30-2009, 10:37 PM
I think Highlifeman is Nix's biggest supporter. I remember him touting Nix a few months ago.

I like Nix. I really like his batting stance and his swing. I said in another thread that I think he looks like a poor man's Josh Hamilton at the plate. Some guys look like they're going to smash the ball when they're at the plate. Nix is one of those guys.

I also like his approach at the plate. He makes the pitcher work and has given many quality at-bats.

I wouldn't hand the job over to him, but I would give him his fair share of starts to see what happens. You never know.

M2
04-30-2009, 11:48 PM
What I was commenting on was that in Nix's career (heads off to find some stats to back it up) of just over 900 ab's (not exactly a small sample size wouldn't you agree), he's hit .238 with only 30 homeruns (far from having great power), drawn only 44 walks (in 900 ab's that HORRIBLE) but k'd 256 times (quite a high number for 900 ab's).

Again, he was ages 22-24 when he compiled those numbers. He got called up way too early. I'm not saying Nix is any sort of sure thing, but the stats he put up with the Rangers when he shouldn't have been in the majors don't have a whole lot to do with what you should expect from the guy now that he maybe should be in the majors.


And yeah, Schmidt was great, but I'll take Brooks over Mike. :O)

Brooks Robinson was so ridiculously overrated it's not even funny. I'd just as soon have Buddy Bell.

M2
04-30-2009, 11:52 PM
I wouldn't hand the job over to him, but I would give him his fair share of starts to see what happens. You never know.

That's my take too. Whoever does the job best gets to play.

*BaseClogger*
05-01-2009, 12:33 AM
I think Highlifeman is Nix's biggest supporter. I remember him touting Nix a few months ago.

:wave:

GAC
05-01-2009, 04:55 AM
Wasn't it said that Hairston was battling numerous injuries for many years prior to last season? That last season was his first really "healthy" year (yes, I recall his DL stints last year). Isn't it possible that he found his stroke and turned a corner last year?

He only played in 80 games in his "healthy" year of 2008.


If there really were lots of troublesome injuries prior to last season, shouldn't we look at the healthy AB's rather than the injured ones?

But unless he was knowingly playing hurt, wouldn't the numbers he has accrued be the result of healthy ABs? When JHJ gets hurt, he goes on the DL, and one does not get ABs then.


But I do think he's better than what his career numbers indicate.

That may be; but injuries have plagued him for most of his career. And he is now 32.

Take the three seasons when he played 100+ games. Not impressive....


G AB R H RBI BB SO AVG OBP SLG OPS

2001 159 532 63 124 47 44 73 .233 .305 .344 .649
2002 122 426 55 114 32 34 55 .268 .329 .376 .705
2005 114 380 51 99 30 31 46 .261 .336 .368 .704

I like this Fantasy projection from ESPN. I think it is on the mark concerning JHJ....

Problem is, his .326 batting average was mostly a mirage; he had an unrealistically high .357 mark on balls in play and a .410 clip in his home games. Hairston can be a useful bench player worth subbing in against left-handed pitchers, but his .330 career on-base percentage says he has no business batting in the top third of a lineup, and his .370 career slugging percentage says he shouldn't be anywhere in a lineup on a regular basis. This is a Dusty Baker team, though, meaning Hairston could play about half the time in left field at least, but if you're expecting more than his traditional .270 batting average and perhaps double-digit steals, you're setting yourself up for disappointment.

Guys like JHJ, Nix, Freel, and a host of others who have passed through this organization in recent years, are utility players most teams would love to have on their benches due to their versatility. This organization doesn't seem to recognize that, and makes attempts to turn them into everyday players. And their solution to take two of these players and then platoon them (dividing up that playing time so these "weaknesses" aren't as glaring) isn't the answer either IMO.

bucksfan2
05-01-2009, 09:28 AM
I feel a song coming on!

One of these things is not like the others,

http://www.fangraphs.com/graphs/144_2BOF_season_mini_0_20090429.png

One of these things just doesn't belong,

http://www.fangraphs.com/graphs/144_2BOF_season_mini_2_20090429.png

Can you tell which thing is not like the others

http://www.fangraphs.com/graphs/144_2BOF_season_mini_1_20090429.png

By the time I finish my song?

http://www.fangraphs.com/graphs/144_2BOF_season_mini_7_20090429.png

Ok Nate but to me the graphs show something much more interesting. He was trending upward across the board until 05 when you saw his numbers begin to tank. According to Hariston that corresponds to an injury he suffered running into the wall in Chicago. Whats even more interesting if you would take his trend line and extend it, without injury, his 08 season was good, but maybe not a fluke. That may correspond to Hariston saying last year was his first year healthy since that fateful run in with the wall.

nate
05-01-2009, 10:46 AM
Ok Nate but to me the graphs show something much more interesting. He was trending upward across the board until 05 when you saw his numbers begin to tank. According to Hariston that corresponds to an injury he suffered running into the wall in Chicago. Whats even more interesting if you would take his trend line and extend it, without injury, his 08 season was good, but maybe not a fluke. That may correspond to Hariston saying last year was his first year healthy since that fateful run in with the wall.

Again, I'm not saying he's horrible, I'm fine with him as a 25th man. I'm OK with him as a backup, I'm OK with him starting once a week or so.

I'm not fine with the myth that 2008 represented his true skill level and we should expect him to put up anywhere near those kinds of numbers again. Notice all of his "good" years where he's above his average are accompanied by a similar rise in BABIP; especially last year's ridiculous .360! That is totally and utterly unsustainable.

_Sir_Charles_
05-01-2009, 11:05 AM
Brooks Robinson was so ridiculously overrated it's not even funny. I'd just as soon have Buddy Bell.

Ummm...wow. Just wow. I'm not even sure how to begin to respond to that one. But okay. Another case of agree to disagree apparently.

_Sir_Charles_
05-01-2009, 11:08 AM
Ok Nate but to me the graphs show something much more interesting. He was trending upward across the board until 05 when you saw his numbers begin to tank. According to Hariston that corresponds to an injury he suffered running into the wall in Chicago. Whats even more interesting if you would take his trend line and extend it, without injury, his 08 season was good, but maybe not a fluke. That may correspond to Hariston saying last year was his first year healthy since that fateful run in with the wall.

That was it. I knew I remembered there being something about an injury and last year being his first healthy year going into the season.

And I agree with Nate's assessment. His 2008 numbers are not his true ability. But he's better than the whole of his career averages. And he's still useful as a bench player. I only took exception to the "he's proven he can't hit major league pitching" comment.

westofyou
05-01-2009, 11:17 AM
Ummm...wow. Just wow. I'm not even sure how to begin to respond to that one. But okay. Another case of agree to disagree apparently.

It's true, he played a position that matters defensively but look at the top 20 players in plate appearances and tell me that his OPS, RC/27, BA and HR vs the league average is as nice as his peers.



PLATE APPEARANCES PA OPS RC/G AVG HR
1 Pete Rose 15861 .070 1.37 .041 -132
2 Carl Yastrzemski 13991 .130 1.98 .028 165
3 Hank Aaron 13940 .202 2.96 .042 457
4 Rickey Henderson 13346 .076 2.18 .013 -5
5 Ty Cobb 13073 .242 4.65 .094 50
6 Cal Ripken 12883 .042 0.42 .010 109
7 Eddie Murray 12817 .101 1.42 .023 217
8 Stan Musial 12712 .236 4.37 .064 234
9 Barry Bonds 12606 .300 5.69 .031 496
10 Craig Biggio 12503 .037 0.92 .013 -23
11 Willie Mays 12492 .210 3.29 .038 390
12 Dave Winfield 12358 .099 1.21 .019 201
13 Robin Yount 12249 .050 0.82 .023 -12
14 Paul Molitor 12160 .078 1.58 .041 -44
15 Rafael Palmeiro 12046 .131 2.02 .021 273
16 Eddie Collins 12039 .143 2.55 .059 -18
17 Tris Speaker 11989 .215 3.90 .070 52
18 Brooks Robinson 11782 .012 0.03 .012 -2
19 Frank Robinson 11743 .206 3.13 .034 337
20 Honus Wagner 11738 .177 3.61 .061 49

GAC
05-01-2009, 11:53 AM
Ok Nate but to me the graphs show something much more interesting. He was trending upward across the board until 05 when you saw his numbers begin to tank. According to Hariston that corresponds to an injury he suffered running into the wall in Chicago. Whats even more interesting if you would take his trend line and extend it, without injury, his 08 season was good, but maybe not a fluke. That may correspond to Hariston saying last year was his first year healthy since that fateful run in with the wall.

But he wasn't exactly healthy last year.

And if all this is true then why doesn't Baker have confidence in him as an everyday starter? And where should he then play him? In 2005, while managing the Cubs, he went back and forth with Hairston, Patterson, Perez, and Lawton as leadoff men. Quite frustrating.

JHJ will never be nothing more then a utility player. At least that is where he should be.

M2
05-01-2009, 12:04 PM
It's true, he played a position that matters defensively but look at the top 20 players in plate appearances and tell me that his OPS, RC/27, BA and HR vs the league average is as nice as his peers.



PLATE APPEARANCES PA OPS RC/G AVG HR
1 Pete Rose 15861 .070 1.37 .041 -132
2 Carl Yastrzemski 13991 .130 1.98 .028 165
3 Hank Aaron 13940 .202 2.96 .042 457
4 Rickey Henderson 13346 .076 2.18 .013 -5
5 Ty Cobb 13073 .242 4.65 .094 50
6 Cal Ripken 12883 .042 0.42 .010 109
7 Eddie Murray 12817 .101 1.42 .023 217
8 Stan Musial 12712 .236 4.37 .064 234
9 Barry Bonds 12606 .300 5.69 .031 496
10 Craig Biggio 12503 .037 0.92 .013 -23
11 Willie Mays 12492 .210 3.29 .038 390
12 Dave Winfield 12358 .099 1.21 .019 201
13 Robin Yount 12249 .050 0.82 .023 -12
14 Paul Molitor 12160 .078 1.58 .041 -44
15 Rafael Palmeiro 12046 .131 2.02 .021 273
16 Eddie Collins 12039 .143 2.55 .059 -18
17 Tris Speaker 11989 .215 3.90 .070 52
18 Brooks Robinson 11782 .012 0.03 .012 -2
19 Frank Robinson 11743 .206 3.13 .034 337
20 Honus Wagner 11738 .177 3.61 .061 49


I'm guessing if you just do a 3B list in those categories (e.g. those with 5,000+ PA), Robinson grades out low.

Robinson was a great defender. So was Schmidt. So was Bell. So is Scott Rolen. So were old timers like Jimmy Collins and Heinie Groh (and it's fairly impossible to argue Robinson was a better player than either of those guys).

RedlegJake
05-01-2009, 12:14 PM
I'm okay with the Reds performance so far. Not elated.
Pros:
A lot of hitters aren't performing up to their norms so there is hope for a boost in offense, but it will be modest.

Except for Cueto none of the starters are pitching above expectation. It is not unbelievable to think they could even better themselves as the weather heats up.

Although the back end of the pen has been incredible so far I think Burton and Lincoln will both pitch better so maybe that will even things when Coco-KingArt&Stormy come back to earth a bit.

Votto won't stay this hot all year but I'm betting he finishes with better numbers than most projected. This kid is a leader, too. He is what BP wants to be - and without proclamations, either.

Bruce is starting get untracked - by years end I think he'll make everyone realize what all the hoopla was about.

Cons
The offense will improve a bit but not nearly enough to become even average

The defense is better - I think - rangewise - but still makes bone headed errors too often.

EE is hurt. Thank goodness. I don't mean that cruelly - I mean at least there may be a reason that he looks so clueless. How long can fans keep saying "he's going to break out"?

Hairston has become Hairston again, Dickerson is evidently not superman, BP tries too hard to hit like a cleanup man when he's really a good #6-7 and when he's the cleanup man he's not even that good, AGon is making a great case for starting Paul Janish. At this point PJ has the better glove and it's looking like the better bat. Hanigan is looking like the only utility guy who deserves to be starting who doesn't.

****************
By the by - I'll take Buddy Bell over Brooks, too. A couple plays in the 70 Series made Brooks' rep, Bell was every bit the hitter, as good with the glove, imo and as underrated as Brooks was overrated. At a position with maybe the fewest superstars in the game's long history Schmidt was easily the best.

_Sir_Charles_
05-01-2009, 12:28 PM
It's true, he played a position that matters defensively but look at the top 20 players in plate appearances and tell me that his OPS, RC/27, BA and HR vs the league average is as nice as his peers.

I don't disagree that there are lots of 3B-men who were better than Brooks offensively. But with the glove...he had no peer IMO. And his bat was far from bad. I'd just personally take Brooks over the others simply because of his defensive prowess. Would it be the smartest move, probably not, but I'm a sucker for defensive wiz's.

vic715
05-01-2009, 12:54 PM
I don't disagree that there are lots of 3B-men who were better than Brooks offensively. But with the glove...he had no peer IMO. And his bat was far from bad. I'd just personally take Brooks over the others simply because of his defensive prowess. Would it be the smartest move, probably not, but I'm a sucker for defensive wiz's.

After I saw him almost single handily steal the 1970 World Series from the Reds I'm more than convinced the guy is without a doubt the best defender I've seen in my lifetime at thirdbase and I've seen a few.

M2
05-01-2009, 01:01 PM
Ok Nate but to me the graphs show something much more interesting. He was trending upward across the board until 05 when you saw his numbers begin to tank. According to Hariston that corresponds to an injury he suffered running into the wall in Chicago. Whats even more interesting if you would take his trend line and extend it, without injury, his 08 season was good, but maybe not a fluke. That may correspond to Hariston saying last year was his first year healthy since that fateful run in with the wall.

Except that trend line reflects what you'd expect from any player in his prime. Generally speaking, it levels off around age 30 and then begins to slide back in the other direction. Hairston wasn't going to keep getting better every year until he becomes so awesome that mortals don't dare to look at him directly for fear they'll burst into flames.

Hairston in his prime delivered what you'd want from a bench player. He might still be able to summon that, but last year was one of those fluke seasons (.357 BABIP) when everything turned up roses for him. Enjoy it for what it was.

Ltlabner
05-01-2009, 01:03 PM
....keep getting better every year until he becomes so awesome that mortals don't dare to look at him directly for fear they'll burst into flames.

Whoa.

That would be pretty spiffy if it happened, however.

M2
05-01-2009, 01:40 PM
After I saw him almost single handily steal the 1970 World Series from the Reds I'm more than convinced the guy is without a doubt the best defender I've seen in my lifetime at thirdbase and I've seen a few.

I saw Schmidt do stuff like that every week when I was a kid. I grew up in Delaware in the 1970s. Practically all anybody ever talked about when it came to baseball was Schmidt vs. Brooks. Thanks to my geographic location I got to see Robinson's highlight reel (something they couldn't play enough down in Baltimore) and Schmidt on a regular basis. The inescapable conclusion after being inundated with both of them is both were fantastic defenders and the difference between them in the field was negligible.

Graig Nettles made equally astounding plays in the 1978 World Series.

I'm fine with anybody ranking Robinson as the best 3B they ever saw, he's certainly in the argument, but you've most definitely seen guys nearly as good, some of whom were better players (or in Schmidt's case, vastly superior) at the plate.

westofyou
05-01-2009, 02:05 PM
I saw Schmidt do stuff like that every week when I was a kid. I grew up in Delaware in the 1970s. Practically all anybody ever talked about when it came to baseball was Schmidt vs. Brooks. Thanks to my geographic location I got to see Robinson's highlight reel (something they couldn't play enough down in Baltimore) and Schmidt on a regular basis. The inescapable conclusion after being inundated with both of them is both were fantastic defenders and the difference between them in the field was negligible.

Graig Nettles made equally astounding plays in the 1978 World Series.

I'm fine with anybody ranking Robinson as the best 3B they ever saw, he's certainly in the argument, but you've most definitely seen guys nearly as good, some of whom were better players (or in Schmidt's case, vastly superior) at the plate.


I'm an Aurilio Rodriguez guy myself.

vic715
05-01-2009, 02:45 PM
I'm an Aurilio Rodriguez guy myself.

That guy could play some D.

jojo
05-01-2009, 03:18 PM
Brooks Robinson was a snazzy offensive player during his prime years but Schmidt was a war hammer of an offensive player.

Maybe the fact that we're talking about two hall of famers in a thread meant to probe issues of Nix's playing time says all that needs to be said about the importance of Nix getting more playing time... :cool:

My take? Nix is a major league average offensive player who can play roughly neutral corner outfield defense. He's a nice guy to have on a roster but kings shouldn't go to war over his playing time as he's more small potatoes than prime rib.

M2
05-01-2009, 03:40 PM
I'm an Aurilio Rodriguez guy myself.

Exactly. And Ken Reitz didn't suck either.

My personal pick for 3B defense is Rolen.

OnBaseMachine
05-02-2009, 01:21 AM
Back to the left field platoon situation. After another awful night, Jerry Hairston Jr. is now hitting .163/.234/.256 - .490. He's having bad atbat after bad atbat. In tonight's game against the Pirates, twice he came up with runners on second and third with less than two outs and both times he failed to get a run in. I'd like to see the Reds release him and bring up either Gomes or Bankston, or acquire someone. They're not the greatest options, but they're better than Hairston, IMO.

If the Reds plan on staying in the race, they've got to upgrade at left field and shortstop.

TheNext44
05-02-2009, 01:42 AM
Back to the left field platoon situation. After another awful night, Jerry Hairston Jr. is now hitting .163/.234/.256 - .490. He's having bad atbat after bad atbat. In tonight's game against the Pirates, twice he came up with runners on second and third with less than two outs and both times he failed to get a run in. I'd like to see the Reds release him and bring up either Gomes or Bankston, or acquire someone. They're not the greatest options, but they're better than Hairston, IMO.

If the Reds plan on staying in the race, they've got to upgrade at left field and shortstop.

Agree they need to call up Gomes to start the RH side of the platoon, but there is no need to release Hairston. Just send down McDonald, and use Hairston as he should be used, as a utility guy.

Also SS seems fine to me. Sure Gonzalez is not hitting, but his fielding is much better than I had hoped for. If he can get to his career numbers, and keep his fielding as solid as it has been, there's no need to replace him.

OnBaseMachine
05-02-2009, 02:00 AM
Agree they need to call up Gomes to start the RH side of the platoon, but there is no need to release Hairston. Just send down McDonald, and use Hairston as he should be used, as a utility guy.

Also SS seems fine to me. Sure Gonzalez is not hitting, but his fielding is much better than I had hoped for. If he can get to his career numbers, and keep his fielding as solid as it has been, there's no need to replace him.

I disagree. Gonzalez has been a huge liability with the bat, and while his defense has been better than what our shortstops provided last season, he's a slightly below average defender at this point in his career, IMO. I'd like to Janish get the bulk of the playing time until the Reds can find a better option.

jojo
05-02-2009, 09:35 AM
Gonzo's April was the kind of performance that ends a lot of guys careers at his age.

Scrap Irony
05-02-2009, 11:37 AM
Gonzalez's last .308 .296 .423 .719

I'll take that OPS at the end of the season from Gonzalez.

Will M
05-02-2009, 11:42 AM
I disagree. Gonzalez has been a huge liability with the bat, and while his defense has been better than what our shortstops provided last season, he's a slightly below average defender at this point in his career, IMO. I'd like to Janish get the bulk of the playing time until the Reds can find a better option.

yes.

with the bases juiced in a one run game last night (6th inning) Gonzo was up. I really hoped Dusty would PH with Owings. He didn't & Gonzo made a weak out.

Lets see more of Janish at SS.

Lets get Gomes or Blankston up here to platoon with Nix in LF. (putting Hairston on the bench)

Its MAY. 1/8th of the season is gone. Time to play the guys who are getting it done & bench the guys who aren't.

Scrap Irony
05-02-2009, 11:55 AM
Its MAY. 1/8th of the season is gone. Time to play the guys who are getting it done & bench the guys who aren't.

Some May benchees, if all of mlb decided to take your advice:

Lance Berkman
JJ Hardy
Prince Fielder
Conor Jackson
Russell Martin
Jimmy Rollins
Troy Tulowitski
Derek Lee
Kelly Johnson
Dan Uggla

Relax.

Razor Shines
05-02-2009, 12:33 PM
Some May benchees, if all of mlb decided to take your advice:

Lance Berkman
JJ Hardy
Prince Fielder
Conor Jackson
Russell Martin
Jimmy Rollins
Troy Tulowitski
Derek Lee
Kelly Johnson
Dan Uggla

Relax.

You're gonna compare Alex Gonzales and Jerry Hairston Jr to the guys on that list? Two guys with career sub .700 OPSes? Gonzales is a below average hitter and a below average fielder at this point in his career. We know what we're going to get from him. I'd like to see what Janish can do with some extended playing time, at least he's a superior fielder.

I don't want any part of JHJ in a platoon at any position let alone left field where I'd like to see some pop. It was a bad choice to sign him considering we had in house options that could out produce him, but since he's signed he should be the last man off the bench, not a platoon partner.

nate
05-02-2009, 01:06 PM
Gonzalez's last .308 .296 .423 .719

I'll take that OPS at the end of the season from Gonzalez.

Over what time is that?

Odd to have a BA higher than OBP.

Scrap Irony
05-02-2009, 01:17 PM
Seven days. Sorry.

And yeah, Razor, I'm talking about all those players who "aren't getting it done" and hven't got it done in the first month of the season.

Gonzalez will get better. He may not be great, but he will be mediocre on offense and defensively solid/ above average. He just needs time--especially considering his year off.

jojo
05-02-2009, 01:35 PM
Seven days. Sorry.

And yeah, Razor, I'm talking about all those players who "aren't getting it done" and hven't got it done in the first month of the season.

Gonzalez will get better. He may not be great, but he will be mediocre on offense and defensively solid/ above average. He just needs time--especially considering his year off.

Gonzo's last seven days: .250/.250/.250; OPS: .500

SMcGavin
05-02-2009, 01:35 PM
Back to the left field platoon situation. After another awful night, Jerry Hairston Jr. is now hitting .163/.234/.256 - .490. He's having bad atbat after bad atbat. In tonight's game against the Pirates, twice he came up with runners on second and third with less than two outs and both times he failed to get a run in. I'd like to see the Reds release him and bring up either Gomes or Bankston, or acquire someone. They're not the greatest options, but they're better than Hairston, IMO.

If the Reds plan on staying in the race, they've got to upgrade at left field and shortstop.

Yeah. The Reds went into the season counting on a 33 year old with a career .703 OPS vs LHP to be part of a platoon in LEFT FIELD (where league average is .800+ OPS). I know the Reds do dumb stuff sometimes, but I was honestly shocked when they decided to do that. And the other half of the platoon is a guy who's been lauded for his CF defense but has a history of struggling with the bat. Going into the season with the LF situation the Reds did is really indefensible.

I wouldn't release Hairston (remember McDonald is still on this roster), but I'd send him to end of the bench / utility man status.

Scrap Irony
05-02-2009, 01:37 PM
ESPN disagrees, jojo.

jojo
05-02-2009, 02:07 PM
ESPN disagrees, jojo.

Well in a cage match, my money is on BR.com but ESPN says this: .269/.259/.385; OPS: .644 for Gonzo's last 7 games (BR splits by days not games)....

Scrap Irony
05-02-2009, 02:39 PM
They apparently updated last night's games in the past three hours? Dunno. Still, he's showing signs of coming out of his funk. As is Phillips. Now, if Nix continues to hit as the LF, the Reds' offense can go from truly horrid to simply poor.

boognish
05-02-2009, 04:11 PM
Yeah. The Reds went into the season counting on a 33 year old with a career .703 OPS vs LHP to be part of a platoon in LEFT FIELD (where league average is .800+ OPS). I know the Reds do dumb stuff sometimes, but I was honestly shocked when they decided to do that. And the other half of the platoon is a guy who's been lauded for his CF defense but has a history of struggling with the bat. Going into the season with the LF situation the Reds did is really indefensible.

I wouldn't release Hairston (remember McDonald is still on this roster), but I'd send him to end of the bench / utility man status.

This post accurately reflects my point of view on the matter. Hairston really doesn't have platoon splits to suggest he could be productive enough, and I am confident Baker will give him 500 PA, health permitting. Hopefully the Reds' grasping at the straw that is Laynce Nix gives them above average production from a spot where offense is needed.

WVPacman
05-04-2009, 12:19 AM
Am I the only one that was shocked that Nix was'nt in the starting lineup and playing left field instead of Dickerson?IMO you have to play the players that are on a hot streak and Nix is that hot hand.Dickerson has done nothing along with Harriston and yet they get to play.As of right now I would put Nix in the starting lineup every game againist a rightie.

HokieRed
05-04-2009, 12:31 AM
I thought at the least Nix would get the start in one of these last two games. As to Hairston, I think we just need to hope that EE gets well, Rosales continues to hit, and Bankston makes it impossible to keep him in Louisville. I tend to think that we're about a month from seeing that LF platoon be either Dickerson or Nix and either Bankston or Gomes (or Rosales, EE having returned).

Topcat
05-04-2009, 12:41 AM
Okay so are we now back on Laynce Nix or does the thread jack continue :)

WVPacman
05-04-2009, 12:51 AM
Okay so are we now back on Laynce Nix or does the thread jack continue :)

Well the last time I looked the title of this thread was "Should Laynce Nix get more playing time?".:D

Topcat
05-06-2009, 02:18 AM
Well the last time I looked the title of this thread was "Should Laynce Nix get more playing time?".:D

And then it went sideways as much as any thread ever could without some one tossing in a recipe:p:

Jpup
05-08-2009, 05:51 PM
Does anyone have a projection for Laynce Nix if he were to get a full season of ABs? I'm looking for average, obp, slg, homers, stolen bases, etc projected over a full season based on him being healthy.

Of course I'm doing this looking to recreate in The Show because his ratings are extremely low.

jojo
05-08-2009, 06:00 PM
Does anyone have a projection for Laynce Nix if he were to get a full season of ABs? I'm looking for average, obp, slg, homers, stolen bases, etc projected over a full season based on him being healthy.

Of course I'm doing this looking to recreate in The Show because his ratings are extremely low.

http://www.redszone.com/forums/showthread.php?t=74707



Player AVE OBP SLG OPS ISO k% BB% XBH% wOBA Def/150 Run/600
Nix 0.258 0.313 0.455 0.768 0.197 25.7 6.7 39.2 0.331 -1 12


This would be what his counting stats would look like over 600 PA's base upon that projection:



PA H 1b 2b 3b hr R RBI bb ibb k hbp
600 143 87 28 3 25 69 80 40 0 154 5

Jpup
05-08-2009, 06:04 PM
Thanks JoJo.

mth123
05-08-2009, 08:50 PM
Gotta admit, Laynce Nix is one guy I was wrong about. I wanted him replaced with just about any out of work vet lefty bat. Nix has been good so far. I'm in the camp that wants him in LF against RHP (though I still think Dickerson will prove valuable). Pop is a good thing.

Gainesville Red
05-08-2009, 08:54 PM
Made a couple of pretty nice catches tonight.

WebScorpion
05-10-2009, 02:13 AM
Made a couple of pretty nice catches tonight. Yea, I noticed that too...he's not supposed to be a great defender, but he sure looked good tonight. That play at the wall was a tough one too...he timed it just right. Laynce Nix for GG!! ;)

fearofpopvol1
05-10-2009, 03:22 AM
I think Nix is at least average as a defender. Maybe even slightly above. He's definitely not a liability out there. With that said, he looks atrocious at the plate against LHP. But as a platoon guy, I think he does the job just fine.