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corkedbat
05-04-2009, 12:35 AM
I heard someone on the radio this afternoon as I was headed back to work - can't remember if it was WLW or ESPN. They were talking about how every team, even the farthest out at this point, think they're a contender right now, but that will start to change as we get closer to June.

They named Baltimore as the team most likely to turn "seller" soonest and that got me thinking about their roster. Jones or Markakis would look pretty good in LF.

1) would you go after one of the two?
2) If so, which?
3) If not, who would you go after? (Not necessarily OFs or from the O's)
4) What would you be willing to give up?

I'd love to see them go after Roberts and move Phillips to SS, but that's not happening.

Homer Bailey
05-04-2009, 12:42 AM
I heard someone on the radio this afternoon as I was headed back to work - can't remember if it was WLW or ESPN. They were talking about how every team, even the farthest out at this point, think they're a contender right now, but that will start to change as we get closer to June.

They named Baltimore as the team most likely to turn "seller" soonest and that got me thinking about their roster. Jones or Markakis would look pretty good in LF.

1) would you go after one of the two?
2) If so, which?
3) If not, who would you go after? (Not necessarily OFs or from the O's)
4) What would you be willing to give up?

I'd love to see them go after Roberts and move Phillips to SS, but that's not happening.

1. Going after one of them would require at least one of Cueto, Volquz, Bruce, or votto. So no.
2. See one.
3. Aubrey Huff wouldn't look bad in a Reds uni. He could be a guy to be moved at the deadline as he's a free agent at year end.
4. I wouldn't have a problem parting with any of the current minor leaguers if we are able to get some major value.

reds44
05-04-2009, 12:53 AM
http://www.battingstanceguy.com/wp-content/uploads/2008/09/t1_kearns.jpg

*BaseClogger*
05-04-2009, 12:56 AM
OR

http://i.a.cnn.net/si/2006/players/05/16/questions0522/t1_willingham.jpg

reds44
05-04-2009, 12:57 AM
That works too.

But Kearns has more sex appeal for the ladies.

HeatherC1212
05-04-2009, 01:16 AM
If Aubrey Huff is still hitting really well at the deadline, I'd love to see him in Cincy. I don't want us giving up the farm for him or anything (he's a FA at the end of the season) but he did win the Silver Slugger last year so his bat would be really great in our lineup. He would also provide a good backup to Vottomatic if we need one because he can play 1st or 3rd base. :)

Markakis or A. Jones would cost WAY too much to get so no way on acquiring either of them although I love both of them as players. I think Baltimore wants them around when their young pitching starts hitting the big team (which should be next year at the latest).

Mario-Rijo
05-04-2009, 01:41 AM
Hmm, Markakis and Jones aren't likely gonna be dealt ever. Angelos is harder to pry good players away from than any owner in baseball.

My guy would be:
http://www.cbc.ca/gfx/pix/hermida_hr_cp.jpg

It would take a couple of good prospects probably but frankly I'm tired of waiting to win and he isn't gonna hurt us financially yet. Get him out of that cavernous stadium and he should blow up. I'd like to have a RH bat as well but I'd play Hermida in LF and not sure I can find a 3B or SS at the deadline that makes sense and who wouldn't hurt us defensively.

Big Klu
05-04-2009, 02:31 AM
Hmm, Markakis and Jones aren't likely gonna be dealt ever. Angelos is harder to pry good players away from than any owner in baseball.

Peter Angelos holds Nick Markakis in very high esteem--mainly because he is a really good baseball player, but also in part due to their shared Greek heritage. (Markakis chose to play for Greece in the 2004 Olympics, and Angelos sponsored the Greek national team.)

Hmm...maybe now is the time to offer Milt Pappas back to the O's for Frank Robinson! :D

WVRedsFan
05-04-2009, 02:47 AM
http://www.battingstanceguy.com/wp-content/uploads/2008/09/t1_kearns.jpg

If he was dis-united from Dunn, would he cry?

thatcoolguy_22
05-04-2009, 06:15 AM
http://www.reclinergm.com/images/choohrcc.jpg

If Indians fall off in the central they could be looking to sell. Shin-Soo Choo last year for the first time got consistent PA and swung to the tune of .946 OPS over 370 PA. With the recent call up of Matt LaPorta and their dire need of pitching we could be set up for perfect trading partners.

Their current rotation

Cliff Lee
Fausto Carmona
Carl Pavano
Anthony Reyes
Aaron Laffey

Opinions?

jojo
05-04-2009, 07:52 AM
I heard someone on the radio this afternoon as I was headed back to work - can't remember if it was WLW or ESPN. They were talking about how every team, even the farthest out at this point, think they're a contender right now, but that will start to change as we get closer to June.

They named Baltimore as the team most likely to turn "seller" soonest and that got me thinking about their roster. Jones or Markakis would look pretty good in LF.

1) would you go after one of the two?
2) If so, which?
3) If not, who would you go after? (Not necessarily OFs or from the O's)
4) What would you be willing to give up?

I'd love to see them go after Roberts and move Phillips to SS, but that's not happening.

Jones and Markakis are two of the best young outfielders in the game and they're locked up for a long time. The Os are basically waiting for their farm to complement these guys. They aren't going to trade them away because they're under .500 this June. It's not going to happen any more than they'll trade Wieters because he didn't break with the club and is having a slow start in Norfolk.

All the right kind of guy to covet but none of them practical targets IMHO.

If the Os are the partner, think Scott/Huff/Mora etc as guys they'd deal.

edabbs44
05-04-2009, 07:59 AM
Cleveland has no reason to deal Choo, as he is cheap, talented and young. Exactly the type of guy everyone wants.

How about a little of this guy, if Seatlle falls out of the race and he picks it up with his bat?

http://www.feelingdodgerblue.com/img/p1_dodgers.jpg

Pending FA...I'd wait a little bit on him and jump in if he becomes available. Huff isn't a bad call, but where is he going to play? He hasn't played a material amt of games outside of 1B/DH in years.

membengal
05-04-2009, 08:06 AM
If people are going to look at the O's please cross off the following players from your wish lists:

1. Nick Markakis
2. Adam Jones
3. Chris Tillman (RH SP)
4. Brian Matusz (LH SP)
5. Wieters

The O's are actually building a core of really good young players in an approach that should be somewhat familiar to Reds fans. The O's would no more deal that core right now than the Reds would deal Bruce/Votto/Cueto/Volquez.

That said, the vets on that team should be available for deals mid-year. But guys like Brian Roberts will NOT come cheap, no more than Reds fans would agree that a guy like Brandon Philips or like Aaron Harang should come cheap. The O's will want legit impact prospects for Roberts. I would think Huff would be slightly cheaper to acquire mid-season. He's not a bad target, all things considered, should Cincy not have addressed its LF needs before then.

Falls City Beer
05-04-2009, 08:08 AM
If people are going to look at the O's please cross off the following players from your wish lists:

1. Nick Markakis
2. Adam Jones
3. Chris Tillman
4. Matusz
5. Wieters

The O's are actually building a core of really good young players in an approach that should be somewhat familiar to Reds fans. The O's would no more deal that core right now than the Reds would deal Bruce/Votto/Cueto/Volquez.

That said, the vets on that team should be available for deals mid-year. But guys like Brian Roberts will NOT come cheap, no more than Reds fans would agree that a guy like Brandon Philips or like Aaron Harang should come cheap. The O's will want legit impact prospects for Roberts. I would think Huff would be slightly cheaper to acquire mid-season. He's not a bad target, all things considered, should Cincy not have addressed its LF needs before then.

The O's would be wise to turn one of the offensive prospects into a starting pitcher if possible.

membengal
05-04-2009, 08:11 AM
They have a series of really good SP prospects about to break into the bigs. Really, really good SP prospects. Tillman was 16th and Matusz 19th on BP's Top 100 prospects list for 2009. And I should have added Jake Arrieta to the list, RH SP, and #52 on BP's list.

I just don't see them chipping at Markakis/Jones/Wieters to add to that untli they see how the kids acclimate. The O's are aiming at 2011 for contention. They won't deal to try and move up that timeframe, I don't think.

PuffyPig
05-04-2009, 08:43 AM
I heard someone on the radio this afternoon as I was headed back to work - can't remember if it was WLW or ESPN. They were talking about how every team, even the farthest out at this point, think they're a contender right now, but that will start to change as we get closer to June.

They named Baltimore as the team most likely to turn "seller" soonest and that got me thinking about their roster. Jones or Markakis would look pretty good in LF.

1) would you go after one of the two?
2) If so, which?
3) If not, who would you go after? (Not necessarily OFs or from the O's)
4) What would you be willing to give up?

I'd love to see them go after Roberts and move Phillips to SS, but that's not happening.


Teams that become sellers trade theri older players who are FA's to be.

Last year, we traded Griffey and Dunn at the deadline, not Votto, Bruce, Cueto or Volquez.

Markakis and Jones aren't being moved.

jojo
05-04-2009, 08:46 AM
They have a series of really good SP prospects about to break into the bigs. Really, really good SP prospects. Tillman was 16th and Matusz 19th on BP's Top 100 prospects list for 2009. And I should have added Jake Arrieta to the list, RH SP, and #52 on BP's list.

I just don't see them chipping at Markakis/Jones/Wieters to add to that untli they see how the kids acclimate. The O's are aiming at 2011 for contention. They won't deal to try and move up that timeframe, I don't think.

Ya. The O's are actually on track.

Falls City Beer
05-04-2009, 08:52 AM
They have a series of really good SP prospects about to break into the bigs. Really, really good SP prospects. Tillman was 16th and Matusz 19th on BP's Top 100 prospects list for 2009. And I should have added Jake Arrieta to the list, RH SP, and #52 on BP's list.

I just don't see them chipping at Markakis/Jones/Wieters to add to that untli they see how the kids acclimate. The O's are aiming at 2011 for contention. They won't deal to try and move up that timeframe, I don't think.

A lot of teams have really good SP prospects.

membengal
05-04-2009, 08:58 AM
Not like that collection they don't. The O's are likely #1 in baseball at this point for MLB caliber SPs knocking on the door.

It makes zero sense, since they are not trying to win in 2009 (or even 2010) to deal from the core offense until they see how those guys pan out.

Falls City Beer
05-04-2009, 09:00 AM
Not like that collection they don't. The O's are likely #1 in baseball at this point for MLB caliber SPs knocking on the door.

It makes zero sense, since they are not trying to win in 2009 (or even 2010) to deal from the core offense until they see how those guys pan out.

As we are seeing right in front of our eyes, true starting pitching--real MLB starting pitching--greatly accelerates timelines.

Odds are one or two of their "MLB caliber" arms won't stick in the majors.

Nevertheless, you're probably right. I doubt they'll trade one of their offensive players.

HotCorner
05-04-2009, 09:05 AM
Willingham from the Nats

Falls City Beer
05-04-2009, 09:10 AM
Willingham from the Nats

He'd be a great target, and now that Bowden's gone, a deal could probably be worked out.

CarolinaRedleg
05-04-2009, 09:17 AM
Jones won't be arb-eligible until 2014, so no doubt Baltimore would want a ransom for him since he's productive and cheap.

bucksfan2
05-04-2009, 09:24 AM
I would look towards Cleveland, White Sox, Detroit, Oakland, San Diego, Arizona, and maybe Texas. You are going to see teams that are out of it early begin to sell early. Attendance will be off in most cities, and will disappear in poor drawing cities if they are out of it come mid summer. It may be especially dangerous for Cleveland and Detroit because of the state of their economies.

The Reds have the luxury of having good pitching. That in itself should keep the team relevant through the entire season. Well run teams may be able to turn the trading deadline into a pseudo free agent period. If you are able to take on a contract, big time players will come cheap. I think this trade deadline, more than any in recent history, you will see not only expiring contracts being moved, but also players locked up for a couple of years, but at high rates.

OnBaseMachine
05-04-2009, 10:00 AM
As I said in another thread, I'd target Kearns and Willingham for left field. Then I would turn my attention towards finding a shortstop.

I wonder if the D-Backs would trade Chris Young if they fall out of the race?

OnBaseMachine
05-04-2009, 10:07 AM
Scott Hairston is another guy I'd target. He's a solid defender and his bat has started to develop over the last two seasons.

REDREAD
05-04-2009, 10:09 AM
Not to be the wet blanket, but maybe the Reds should be considering being an earlier seller, as opposed to a buyer.

I am really pleased that the team has started off at a .500 clip. I don't want to just salary dump for the sake of dumping, but let's say that a contender is still in the race at the deadline and is willing to give up some good young players for Harang or Arroyo.
That might be the better long term plan for the Reds. Of course, I'd prefer to trade Cordero, but that's probably almost impossible with his salary and no trade clause.

Again, I am quite pleased that the Reds are off to a good start. I just don't see them being a contender level team, and the farm doesn't really have that much projected help in the next couple of years arriving. (Maybe Alonso, maybe a couple relievers, probably not Homer).

Homer Bailey
05-04-2009, 10:12 AM
Jones won't be arb-eligible until 2014, so no doubt Baltimore would want a ransom for him since he's productive and cheap.

Arb-eligible in 2011.

CarolinaRedleg
05-04-2009, 10:18 AM
Arb-eligible in 2011.

You're right. I misread (great way to make my ORG debut). He'll be eligible for free agency in 2014. Still, Baltimore would want a hefty return for his services.

Homer Bailey
05-04-2009, 10:31 AM
You're right. I misread (great way to make my ORG debut). He'll be eligible for free agency in 2014. Still, Baltimore would want a hefty return for his services.

I understood what you were saying, so no worries. And yes, he would obviously be a very, very tough get.

Welcome! :beerme:

Sea Ray
05-04-2009, 10:42 AM
It's really pointless to discuss now who to trade now because it all depends on the return. I'd be open to listening to offers for any of our expensive veterans but whether I'll bite or not depends on the return. If a team is offering us a Micah Owings and a few minor leaguers I'm not too interested. If they're offering a young powerful hitter that can play LF, I may be very interested. Until we get to that point we won't know who they're dangling. It all depends on the return

IslandRed
05-04-2009, 10:42 AM
Not to be the wet blanket, but maybe the Reds should be considering being an earlier seller, as opposed to a buyer.

I am really pleased that the team has started off at a .500 clip. I don't want to just salary dump for the sake of dumping, but let's say that a contender is still in the race at the deadline and is willing to give up some good young players for Harang or Arroyo. That might be the better long term plan for the Reds. Of course, I'd prefer to trade Cordero, but that's probably almost impossible with his salary and no trade clause.

As long as we've waited for a rotation that's actually good, can't we enjoy it a little bit first? :p:

REDREAD
05-04-2009, 11:32 AM
As long as we've waited for a rotation that's actually good, can't we enjoy it a little bit first? :p:


Yeah, I know..
It would have to be a darn good return, not a fire sale.

I'm just worried about the team being able to grow it's talent base, since we appeared to be maxed out in payroll now.

Shedding AGon after this year will help, as will Hernandez "rolling off" the payroll, but it's likely going to cost money to replace them and get a LF.

Homer Bailey
05-04-2009, 11:38 AM
Yeah, I know..
It would have to be a darn good return, not a fire sale.

I'm just worried about the team being able to grow it's talent base, since we appeared to be maxed out in payroll now.

Shedding AGon after this year will help, as will Hernandez "rolling off" the payroll, but it's likely going to cost money to replace them and get a LF.

But Harang and Arroyo getting more expensive doesn't help. Add in BP's salary increase, WT's, EE's, and were looking at a decent sized payroll. Which is exactly why WT, ML, and JHJ's contracts were all terrible, terrible ideas.

Mario-Rijo
05-04-2009, 12:06 PM
Scott Hairston is another guy I'd target. He's a solid defender and his bat has started to develop over the last two seasons.

Hairston I like, he's not likely to be all that expensive in terms of prospects or dollars and he's a good defender for LF with some pop. And his team should be out of it by the deadline. Willingham is ok but I think Kearns makes too much and of course his history here probably doesn't help him. I'd still offer for Hermida though if I couldn't pickup Hairston fairly cheap.

Homer Bailey
05-04-2009, 12:24 PM
Hairston I like, he's not likely to be all that expensive in terms of prospects or dollars and he's a good defender for LF with some pop. And his team should be out of it by the deadline. Willingham is ok but I think Kearns makes too much and of course his history here probably doesn't help him. I'd still offer for Hermida though if I couldn't pickup Hairston fairly cheap.

I think we might be a year too late on Hairston. He's putting up some big numbers this year and is only making $1.25M. I'm sure he'd love to play with his brother.

P.S. How is San Diego's opening day payroll down $30M from last year? What came off their books that I'm not thinking of off the top of my head? I know Khalil Greene, but he couldn't have been making too much.

Falls City Beer
05-04-2009, 12:26 PM
I think we might be a year too late on Hairston. He's putting up some big numbers this year and is only making $1.25M. I'm sure he'd love to play with his brother.

P.S. How is San Diego's opening day payroll down $30M from last year? What came off their books that I'm not thinking of off the top of my head? I know Khalil Greene, but he couldn't have been making too much.

Hoffman?

edabbs44
05-04-2009, 12:26 PM
I think we might be a year too late on Hairston. He's putting up some big numbers this year and is only making $1.25M. I'm sure he'd love to play with his brother.

P.S. How is San Diego's opening day payroll down $30M from last year? What came off their books that I'm not thinking of off the top of my head? I know Khalil Greene, but he couldn't have been making too much.

Maddux, Edmonds, Hoffman, Wolf

Homer Bailey
05-04-2009, 12:37 PM
Maddux, Edmonds, Hoffman, Wolf

Just goes to show how long a bad contract or two can inhibit your club (Milton).

Mario-Rijo
05-04-2009, 12:41 PM
I think we might be a year too late on Hairston. He's putting up some big numbers this year and is only making $1.25M. I'm sure he'd love to play with his brother.

P.S. How is San Diego's opening day payroll down $30M from last year? What came off their books that I'm not thinking of off the top of my head? I know Khalil Greene, but he couldn't have been making too much.

Could be a little late in terms of what it will cost. But once they are out of it I think they will look to deal him just because I doubt they believe he is a part of their future he'll be 29 this month. A couple of solid but unspectacular prospects I think would get it done. Maloney is a perfect fit out there and maybe they would have interest in Richar and maybe McDonald. I'd think that would give them the motivation to move him, I mean his OPS was only .791 last season.

Homer Bailey
05-04-2009, 12:48 PM
Could be a little late in terms of what it will cost. But once they are out of it I think they will look to deal him just because I doubt they believe he is a part of their future he'll be 29 this month. A couple of solid but unspectacular prospects I think would get it done. Maloney is a perfect fit out there and maybe they would have interest in Richar and maybe McDonald. I'd think that would give them the motivation to move him, I mean his OPS was only .791 last season.

If I could get him for that little, there is no doubt in my mind I'd do it. Only question I have though, is where does he hit? Is he the 4 hitter we've wanted? I personally don't think so, even though he'd be an upgrade over BP offensively. If we are going to get a RH LF'er, I think it may need to be a big bat we can put in the 4 hole.

HotCorner
05-04-2009, 01:07 PM
I would also look at Matt Holiday should Oakland fall out of contention. Playing in the NL and in a hitter's park would definitely improve his production.

Mario-Rijo
05-04-2009, 01:15 PM
If I could get him for that little, there is no doubt in my mind I'd do it. Only question I have though, is where does he hit? Is he the 4 hitter we've wanted? I personally don't think so, even though he'd be an upgrade over BP offensively. If we are going to get a RH LF'er, I think it may need to be a big bat we can put in the 4 hole.

I don't know for sure that we could but I'd offer it, for the Pads to get a major league ready 25 year old LHSP and filler for a guy who really doesn't do much for them now or in the future is a pretty fair deal in my mind. Although the fact he doesn't make a lot and if he continues to hit like he has early on he might require more than he is actually worth because I would imagine several teams would view him as a nice part to have. That's why I'd offer for him now and go as high as offering up the Sutton Kid w/ Maloney and McDonald. I know McDonald is nothing to write home about but if we are dealing for Hairston then sending them an OF guy like McDonald who can cover some ground in Petco could be of some help. As far as him being the big bat we need, no I doubt it but it gives us a little more pop than his brother and he is a good LF defender. I would do this whether we can get that big bat or not as J Hairston on the bench is better than McDonald.

bucksfan2
05-04-2009, 01:29 PM
I don't know for sure that we could but I'd offer it, for the Pads to get a major league ready 25 year old LHSP and filler for a guy who really doesn't do much for them now or in the future is a pretty fair deal in my mind. Although the fact he doesn't make a lot and if he continues to hit like he has early on he might require more than he is actually worth because I would imagine several teams would view him as a nice part to have. That's why I'd offer for him now and go as high as offering up the Sutton Kid w/ Maloney and McDonald. I know McDonald is nothing to write home about but if we are dealing for Hairston then sending them an OF guy like McDonald who can cover some ground in Petco could be of some help. As far as him being the big bat we need, no I doubt it but it gives us a little more pop than his brother and he is a good LF defender. I would do this whether we can get that big bat or not as J Hairston on the bench is better than McDonald.

Are we talking about the same Scott Hariston? The guy who has a lifetime line of .251/.310/.463. As bad as Dickerson has been this season he still post an OBP of .333. Scott Hariston is exactly the type of player that you stay away from, especially if you are the Reds. Heck the Reds have a better option down in AAA in Jonny Gomes.

Guys like Willingham, Kearns, and Hariston aren't going to do much to upgrade the Reds offense. They are ok players but not impact bats. Heck if Dickerson gets hot he has the ability out perform all three of those players. If the Reds want to make a move then they need to make a worthwhile move. An impact bat could take this team from being a borderline contender to a legit contender. Give me a bat like Holiday and insert him in the 4 hole and this offense gets a whole lot better. Go out and get Adrian Beltre and you improve both the offense and defense. Those guys are difference makers. I just don't want to see the Reds go out and try to find cheap pieces hoping to catch lightening in a bottle.

cincrazy
05-04-2009, 01:32 PM
I would also look at Matt Holiday should Oakland fall out of contention. Playing in the NL and in a hitter's park would definitely improve his production.

I would take Holliday in a nanosecond, but Beane isn't giving him up for anything less than the moon. He acquired Holliday for a reason, and as silly as it might sound, it wasn't to win the World Series. It was to get a bounty in a trade, or to let him go and acquire the draft picks. And with the way Holliday has hit so far, nobody is going to be willing to pay what Beane wants, I'd imagine.

Mario-Rijo
05-04-2009, 01:46 PM
Are we talking about the same Scott Hariston? The guy who has a lifetime line of .251/.310/.463. As bad as Dickerson has been this season he still post an OBP of .333. Scott Hariston is exactly the type of player that you stay away from, especially if you are the Reds. Heck the Reds have a better option down in AAA in Jonny Gomes.

Yeah that is the one we are talking about. He of the 28 jacks in his last 500ish PA's in that cavernous park and division. Yeah he's not a great OBP% guy but he's sitting somewhere around 11% of his PA's he draws one so that isn't awful. He's a good defender and his Slg% and BA likely goes up as he is a FB hitter who would be hitting in GABP.


Guys like Willingham, Kearns, and Hariston aren't going to do much to upgrade the Reds offense. They are ok players but not impact bats. Heck if Dickerson gets hot he has the ability out perform all three of those players. If the Reds want to make a move then they need to make a worthwhile move. An impact bat could take this team from being a borderline contender to a legit contender. Give me a bat like Holiday and insert him in the 4 hole and this offense gets a whole lot better. Go out and get Adrian Beltre and you improve both the offense and defense. Those guys are difference makers. I just don't want to see the Reds go out and try to find cheap pieces hoping to catch lightening in a bottle.

I think we'd all like an impact bat but we are throwing out more realistic options in terms of dollars. I think most doubt we go out and add a guy who is making quite a bit of dough. For the money to production ratio I think Hairston is as good a deal as most anyone for what we need.

Homer Bailey
05-04-2009, 01:55 PM
When you guys say he's a good defender, how good are we talking? I'm no defensive statistic expert to say the least.

Caveat Emperor
05-04-2009, 02:05 PM
The O's would be wise to turn one of the offensive prospects into a starting pitcher if possible.

It'd strike me as mildly amusing if the Reds and O's ended up finally working some deal out after the on-again-off-again-on-again-and-back-off-agian Bedard talks from a year and a half ago.

Think the O's brass is regretting not coming down off their "We must have Jay Bruce" platform and "settling" for Johnny Cueto and Joey Votto?

bucksfan2
05-04-2009, 02:05 PM
Yeah that is the one we are talking about. He of the 28 jacks in his last 500ish PA's in that cavernous park and division. Yeah he's not a great OBP% guy but he's sitting somewhere around 11% of his PA's he draws one so that isn't awful. He's a good defender and his Slg% and BA likely goes up as he is a FB hitter who would be hitting in GABP.

I think we'd all like an impact bat but we are throwing out more realistic options in terms of dollars. I think most doubt we go out and add a guy who is making quite a bit of dough. For the money to production ratio I think Hairston is as good a deal as most anyone for what we need.

But does Hariston put this team over the top? Does this guy fill a need in the lineup? Is this guy substantially better than Jonny Gomes? Is Scott Hariston a big enough upgrade over the current situation to validate giving something of substance up in order to get him?

I want an impact bat. I don't want the Reds to use up assets to get complimentary players. I don't want the Reds to get marginal upgrades, which is what Willingham, Kearns, and Hariston look like. This season, however good or bad the Reds are playing, they need to make a trade that either puts them into serious contention or makes them better in the future.

jojo
05-04-2009, 02:14 PM
It'd strike me as mildly amusing if the Reds and O's ended up finally working some deal out after the on-again-off-again-on-again-and-back-off-agian Bedard talks from a year and a half ago.

Think the O's brass is regretting not coming down off their "We must have Jay Bruce" platform and "settling" for Johnny Cueto and Joey Votto?

I think most of that talk was smoke aimed at leveraging a current member of the Reds FO.

reds44
05-04-2009, 02:15 PM
Guys like Willingham, Kearns, and Hariston aren't going to do much to upgrade the Reds offense. They are ok players but not impact bats. Heck if Dickerson gets hot he has the ability out perform all three of those players. If the Reds want to make a move then they need to make a worthwhile move. An impact bat could take this team from being a borderline contender to a legit contender. Give me a bat like Holiday and insert him in the 4 hole and this offense gets a whole lot better. Go out and get Adrian Beltre and you improve both the offense and defense. Those guys are difference makers. I just don't want to see the Reds go out and try to find cheap pieces hoping to catch lightening in a bottle.
I'm not sure how you can say Kearns or Willingham wouldn't help the Reds. I like Chris Dickerson as much as the next guy, but he's a miscat in LF. He's ceiling is probably a .750 OPS in the majors, and if the Reds are serious about contending then the Dickerson/Hairston platoon in LF isn't going to get the job done. Kearns has the ability to hit 25+ homer and not downgrade the outfield defense. Willingham has a career .826 OPS playing in Miami. Are either "elite" talents? No, probably not, but they are definite upgrades of what we currently have while not having to give up the farm to acquire them.

Mario-Rijo
05-04-2009, 02:38 PM
When you guys say he's a good defender, how good are we talking? I'm no defensive statistic expert to say the least.

He's no great defender but I think it says he could do fine in a COF spot since he has played CF quite a bit for SD. From what I have actually seen from him he's his brother in LF but with a better arm and feel for the OF & perhaps an eyelash less range. But he's a significant offensive upgrade over Jerry, at least for what we need.

bucksfan2
05-04-2009, 02:39 PM
I'm not sure how you can say Kearns or Willingham wouldn't help the Reds. I like Chris Dickerson as much as the next guy, but he's a miscat in LF. He's ceiling is probably a .750 OPS in the majors, and if the Reds are serious about contending then the Dickerson/Hairston platoon in LF isn't going to get the job done. Kearns has the ability to hit 25+ homer and not downgrade the outfield defense. Willingham has a career .826 OPS playing in Miami. Are either "elite" talents? No, probably not, but they are definite upgrades of what we currently have while not having to give up the farm to acquire them.

I want nothing to do with Kearns. To me he is Gomes at the plate while being a better defensive outfielder. He does not put this team over the top. He doesn't bring something to this team that the Reds don't already have. The Reds have been down that road with Kearns once and it ended poorly but now he is more expensive. I stay away from Kearns.

Willingham on the other hand looks similar to Dickerson with a little more pop. IMO Dickerson can put up an OBP of around .350+ while hit 15-25 HRs in a year. He has struggled at the beginning of the season but I am willing to wait a few more weeks before writing him off.

How big of an upgrade would Willingham be? Is he a big enough upgrade to give something of value up for? Does an acquisition of Willingham take this team from an 82 win team to an 87 win team? Is he able to handle the 4 hole? My issue is that none of the guys that are being mentioned, sans Holiday, are going to take this team and make it substantially better than what it is now. Heck if Dickerson or Lance Nix get hot they are able to perform to levels of Willingham or Kearns.

reds44
05-04-2009, 02:42 PM
Over the course of their careers, what has shown you that Dickerson or Nix can perform to the levels of Willingham or Kearns? And yeah, if anybody "gets hot" they can perform at a high level.

Mario-Rijo
05-04-2009, 02:52 PM
But does Hariston put this team over the top? Does this guy fill a need in the lineup? Is this guy substantially better than Jonny Gomes? Is Scott Hariston a big enough upgrade over the current situation to validate giving something of substance up in order to get him?

I want an impact bat. I don't want the Reds to use up assets to get complimentary players. I don't want the Reds to get marginal upgrades, which is what Willingham, Kearns, and Hariston look like. This season, however good or bad the Reds are playing, they need to make a trade that either puts them into serious contention or makes them better in the future.

Ok so your stance is do nothing if we aren't willing to deal for a big (and most likely very expensive) bat. Ok fine but I feel different. I don't think trading Maloney for Hairston precludes us from picking up a big bat but helps us in the meantime.

Is he gonna put us over the top? Probably not.
Does he fill a need in the lineup? Without question he gives us some much needed pop.
Is he better than Gomes? Without a doubt better!
Is he worth giving up something of substance? Absolutely, but substance is a tick below high quality too me. Maloney is worth a lot more to SD than he is to us, and Hairston is worth more to us than them. It's a match made in heaven. If they would take less for Hairston sure I'd do that too but Maloney too me isn't that big a piece.

You want an impact bat, that doesn't have a big contract and who could be dealt I still say my 1st guy is Jeremy Hermida. He'll cost quite bit in prospects though, but he makes a big impact I think. And I'd still add Hairston. Adding both of them in place of McDonald and Dickerson/Nix on the roster helps a great deal.

bucksfan2
05-04-2009, 02:54 PM
Over the course of their careers, what has shown you that Dickerson or Nix can perform to the levels of Willingham or Kearns? And yeah, if anybody "gets hot" they can perform at a high level.

Dickerson's line from last year .304/.413/.608. Granted it was a short period of time, 31 games but it was very impressive. In about a months time he put up an OPS of over 1.000, hit 6 HR's and 9 2B. Right now as bad as Dickerson has been his OBP is still around .333. He has shown the ability to draw a walk even when his batting average is hovering around the .200 mark. I am probably higher than most on Dickerson because I think he can turn into a good, everyday player.

REDREAD
05-04-2009, 03:03 PM
But Harang and Arroyo getting more expensive doesn't help. Add in BP's salary increase, WT's, EE's, and were looking at a decent sized payroll. Which is exactly why WT, ML, and JHJ's contracts were all terrible, terrible ideas.

That's part of what I am saying. AGon and Hernandez will leave, but other veteran players (like Harang and Arroyo and Phillips) will be getting raises.


Although the part I don't disagree with is Tavaras, Lincoln, and Harriston.
There's a big difference between a 2-3 million dollar player to fill a gap vs overpaying for a guy like Cordero. Taveras has earned his money so far, and I expect him to play good enough over his entire contract to cover it. IMO, Dickerson was not a viable CF candidate, and FA CF are pretty pricey.
I know others will disagree, but still, getting a starting CF at an average of 3 million/year is not bad, even if he ends up being slightly below average.. It's not as if we gave the guy a 10 million dollar/year contract.

Harriston is just a one year deal for 2 million. Not a bad insurance play, esp with AGon so questionable.

Lincoln might end up being a washout. I think he will get better though.
The problem is that relief pitching is pretty volatile. Just about every team will get some bumps in the road. So far we have hit on Rhodes and Weathers, and Lincoln has been disappointing. Not too bad of a ratio.. Again, I am not very high on the guys we have in the minors. Not really sure any of them would've been better than Lincoln. So I don't get too worked up over Lincoln getting 2 million/year, because this team desperately needed relief pitching with all the pending FAs they had last year.

I guess the bottom line is that Lincoln,Harriston, and Tavares cost us 7 million this year. I'm not sure you fill those holes any cheaper from last year's FA class.

membengal
05-04-2009, 03:05 PM
I don't want to start another LF thread, so I will tuck this here.

We need to quantify the problem. Let's do that:

Dickerson in 49 at-bats:


.204/.333/.327 OPS .660 1 homerun 1 double 1 triple 0 sb

Hairston in 44 at-bats:


.159/.229/.250 OPS .479 1 homerun 1 double 0 triples 0 sb

That's 93 at-bats between those two. I would say that roughly 75 of those 93 at-bats have come in LF.

They've combined for 2 homeruns, 2 doubles, 1 triple, 0 stolen bases, and played less than satisfactory LF defense. Their combined OPS is at least 200 points below replacement level for their postion.

Here's the kicker. Some here talk about them eventually "playing to the back of their baseball card" as if it is bound to get better. In Hairston's case, the back of his card only puts him at around a .700 OPS guy. Make all the excuses you want for his previous 1000 major league at-bats, it is a part of his history. He is more likely to be that guy than who the Reds saw last year. As for Dickerson, no one really knows what the back of his baseball card looks like. He's just now establishing the baseline. And the trend isn't good. Even if they "play to their card", it is STILL going to be around 100 points below replacement for the position. That is insane.

So, given that LF is an extreme black hole of incompetence, really, is it so hard to wrap minds around a fix there? Really? Short term fixes are Nix in place of Dickerson (four doubles, a triple and a homerun in just 30 at-bats for Nix...or...put another way, one more extra base hit in 30 at-bats than Dickerson/Hairston have combined for in 93) and someone from AAA in place of Hairston, with Hairston headed to the bench. That would be a fix. A not unrealistic short term fix is for a deal for a guy languishing somewhere. That's why people keep saying Josh Willingham (and have said so since the off-season). Look at the back of HIS card (career .263/.360/.467 OPS of .826). That guy has a history of real production in the major leagues. To compare what he has done through his career as being no better than Dickerson/Hairston is just flat insane. And he is potentially gettable. Washington is crying out for starters. Maloney for Willingham might actually get it done. That's a move that won't necessitate breaking the bank or draining the club of prospects. In fact, given the awful start Willingham is off to in limited playing time, it might get done for just that.

But they are moves that can and should be considered and made. I hope like heck that Dickerson starts to make consistent contact, and that Hairston gets back to the .700 level, because that will help the club in the short term. But those two together, remain today, what they were back in the spring, an inadequate solution to the LF problem.

REDREAD
05-04-2009, 03:11 PM
. Maloney for Willingham might actually get it done. That's a move that won't necessitate breaking the bank or draining the club of prospects.
.

If we can get Willingham for a couple guys like Malony and the tweener relievers we have in AAA, it's a total no brainer.. I agree completely.

I would even go further then that.. I'd probably give them Homer for Willingham. IIRC, Willingham is signed to a reasonable 3 year deal. Homer's pedigree might interest Washington.. Let them deal with trying to fix Homer.

Homer Bailey
05-04-2009, 03:16 PM
That's part of what I am saying. AGon and Hernandez will leave, but other veteran players (like Harang and Arroyo and Phillips) will be getting raises.


Although the part I don't disagree with is Tavaras, Lincoln, and Harriston.
There's a big difference between a 2-3 million dollar player to fill a gap vs overpaying for a guy like Cordero. Taveras has earned his money so far, and I expect him to play good enough over his entire contract to cover it. IMO, Dickerson was not a viable CF candidate, and FA CF are pretty pricey.
I know others will disagree, but still, getting a starting CF at an average of 3 million/year is not bad, even if he ends up being slightly below average.. It's not as if we gave the guy a 10 million dollar/year contract.

Harriston is just a one year deal for 2 million. Not a bad insurance play, esp with AGon so questionable.

Lincoln might end up being a washout. I think he will get better though.
The problem is that relief pitching is pretty volatile. Just about every team will get some bumps in the road. So far we have hit on Rhodes and Weathers, and Lincoln has been disappointing. Not too bad of a ratio.. Again, I am not very high on the guys we have in the minors. Not really sure any of them would've been better than Lincoln. So I don't get too worked up over Lincoln getting 2 million/year, because this team desperately needed relief pitching with all the pending FAs they had last year.

I guess the bottom line is that Lincoln,Harriston, and Tavares cost us 7 million this year. I'm not sure you fill those holes any cheaper from last year's FA class.

For some reason I thought Hairston got a 2 year deal. I can live with the current one year deal. Taveras, I could see him living up to the cost. However, because of these little moves wrapping up about 13 million over the next 2 years, I could see that as an excuse to not add a big (pricey) bat. Basically, because of their current contract situation, I think everyone agrees that Bob is not willing to take on much of a payroll increase.

membengal
05-04-2009, 03:17 PM
I wouldn't go that far, myself, Redread. Willingham is 30. His upside is around an .825 to .850 OPS. He is wasted in Washington, and they are not in any real strong position bargaining wise. Maloney would immediately be about their fourth best starter.

Point is, I think there are relatively "small" deals that could be made that would help a ton. Btw, Mario, I am not real convinced on Scott Hairston. But, hey, it would be an upgrade over his bro and Dickerson perhaps.

Mario-Rijo
05-04-2009, 03:40 PM
I wouldn't go that far, myself, Redread. Willingham is 30. His upside is around an .825 to .850 OPS. He is wasted in Washington, and they are not in any real strong position bargaining wise. Maloney would immediately be about their fourth best starter.

Point is, I think there are relatively "small" deals that could be made that would help a ton. Btw, Mario, I am not real convinced on Scott Hairston. But, hey, it would be an upgrade over his bro and Dickerson perhaps.

I think with Hairston he can put up an .800+ OPS and not hurt us defensively. Willingham I am not opposed to offensively but I am not real sure about his defense. I can't say I have seen enough of him out there to make a comment on that.

But as I have said my impact bat to get would be Hermida for LF, his bat could be Bruce good getting him out of Florida. Unfortunately we know how the Marlins operate they like to bilk teams of their premier prospects. My guess is they would want Frazier or Soto and an arm like Bailey, Buck, Stewart or Lotzkar. But I think they could be talked into Roenicke and Valaika or something along those lines, at least that is what I'd hope.

REDREAD
05-04-2009, 05:11 PM
I wouldn't go that far, myself, Redread. Willingham is 30. His upside is around an .825 to .850 OPS. He is wasted in Washington, and they are not in any real strong position bargaining wise. Maloney would immediately be about their fourth best starter.

Point is, I think there are relatively "small" deals that could be made that would help a ton. Btw, Mario, I am not real convinced on Scott Hairston. But, hey, it would be an upgrade over his bro and Dickerson perhaps.

Maybe I am overrating Willingham. I did know that he was 30.

I just see Homer's value as extremely low now, and likely to get lower at each passing day. Next year, he's out of options.. unless he shows clear signs of turning himself around, he will be worth less than Masset next year.

Malony, IMO has no value at all. I know this is harsh, but I always thought he was fool's gold. He's just not a ML pitcher. I can't see a team giving up a starting cailber player for Malony (unless it had an albotross contract connected to it).

Even though Willingham is 30, he's an affordable option for filling in LF. Washington gave up some decent talent to get him (that speedy 2b they got from Arizona, IIRC), so I doubt a Malony type guy is going to get the job done. Kearns is also a pending FA, so Washington may want to just platoon Willingham this year and give him the full time job next year. There's also the possiblity Washington could trade Nick Johnson at some point and move Dunn to 1b (clearing the OF logjam).

OnBaseMachine
05-04-2009, 05:16 PM
I just see Homer's value as extremely low now, and likely to get lower at each passing day. Next year, he's out of options.. unless he shows clear signs of turning himself around, he will be worth less than Masset next year.


Those that have seen him pitch recently disagree with you.

From Baseball Prospectus:

Homer Bailey, RHP, Reds (Triple-A Louisville)
After striking out a career-high 15 in his last start, Bailey was more efficient on Saturday night, delivering a seven-inning five-hit shutout against Buffalo. Much of his success can be attributed to mechanical changes, or, more accurately, his reverting to his former delivery, which puts more downward bite on both his fastball and breaking ball. There's no immediate, obvious opening in the Reds' rotation right now, but when one does arise, Bailey could finally be ready to step in and live up to his once mighty promise.

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=8820

jojo
05-04-2009, 05:18 PM
Those that have seen him pitch recently disagree with you.

From Baseball Prospectus:

Homer Bailey, RHP, Reds (Triple-A Louisville)
After striking out a career-high 15 in his last start, Bailey was more efficient on Saturday night, delivering a seven-inning five-hit shutout against Buffalo. Much of his success can be attributed to mechanical changes, or, more accurately, his reverting to his former delivery, which puts more downward bite on both his fastball and breaking ball. There's no immediate, obvious opening in the Reds' rotation right now, but when one does arise, Bailey could finally be ready to step in and live up to his once mighty promise.

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=8820

BP might be railing about his makeup in two starts from now if he gets rocked...

The proof is in the pudding with Homer and the instant stuff won't do any longer-it's gotta be the slow cooking stuff.

durl
05-04-2009, 05:22 PM
I know it's early, but after seeing how Andruw Jones has improved, I think he might have been a pretty good pickup in the offseason. (ah...the magic of being a hindsight GM.) I saw an analysis of his swing last year compared to this year and it seems as though he's corrected some bad problems.

Anyway...that's not really consistent with this thread but I thought I'd throw it out.

Homer Bailey
05-04-2009, 05:23 PM
I know it's early, but after seeing how Andruw Jones has improved, I think he might have been a pretty good pickup in the offseason. (ah...the magic of being a hindsight GM.) I saw an analysis of his swing last year compared to this year and it seems as though he's corrected some bad problems.

Anyway...that's not really consistent with this thread but I thought I'd throw it out.

Also learned last night that Ian Kinsler was a 17th round draft pick. In case we reaaaaally wanted to play hindsight GM.

*BaseClogger*
05-04-2009, 07:39 PM
I wouldn't go that far, myself, Redread. Willingham is 30. His upside is around an .825 to .850 OPS. He is wasted in Washington, and they are not in any real strong position bargaining wise. Maloney would immediately be about their fourth best starter.

Point is, I think there are relatively "small" deals that could be made that would help a ton. Btw, Mario, I am not real convinced on Scott Hairston. But, hey, it would be an upgrade over his bro and Dickerson perhaps.

I think you are selling Willingham short on his upside in GABP. He has a career .865 OPS away from Miami. I'm confident he could OPS at least .850 as long as he checks out with Reds scouts. He would look great hitting cleanup between Votto and Bruce.

And UZR doesn't mind his defense too much. He has a career -4.8 UZR/150, so his range must not be TOO horrific. Not to mention he came up as a catcher and has a strong arm in the outfield...

OUReds
05-04-2009, 11:55 PM
And UZR doesn't mind his defense too much. He has a career -4.8 UZR/150, so his range must not be TOO horrific. Not to mention he came up as a catcher and has a strong arm in the outfield...

Willingham's UZR/150 is a strange one. He was essentially league average in 2006 (-.4) and 2008 (+2.1), but was Dunnesque in 2007 (-15.1). His UZR error component is always around neutral, so it is his range that is the deciding factor between average and poor. Which fielder are you going to get? Who knows?

A league average fielder OPSing .830ish would be a nice piece to have. One who gives back 15 of those runs in the field? eh, not so much.