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Cyclone792
05-05-2009, 10:17 AM
This might be better served here than in the Misc. Updates thread. Nevertheless, here goes from the May 4th game at Florida ...


“That one was the toughest one so far,” said manager Dusty Baker. “In my managerial career (San Francisco, Chicago Cubs, Cincinnati) I’ve had more late losses here than anywhere.”

I hate to say it, Dusty, but you dug your own hole with several moves or non-moves last night that really put the Reds in a bad situation. Here's the tally:


Top of the 8th inning

Willy Taveras singles with one out during a 2-2 ballgame. The Reds signed Taveras to give them a speed and stolen base threat at the top of the order, and this is the precise situation where that threat needs to help the Reds win ballgames. Chris Dickerson sees four total pitches, and Taveras roams no further than a few steps off first base. Taveras absolutely should have been running, and whether or not it was Taveras' decision or Baker's, it was a crucial lost opportunity.

Of course, Dickerson singles and Taveras moves up to second base. Rather than attempt to swipe third to give the Reds a runner on third and on out, Taveras sits still at second base. Joey Votto hits a medium deep fly ball that would have easily scored Taveras from third base had he figured out a way to get there.

That's lost opportunity number one right there as the Reds ultimately do not score.


Bottom of the 9th inning

Dusty Baker uses his spot starter and long man, Nick Masset, to record only one out. With the pitcher's spot due to leadoff the top of the 10th, that leaves Baker no choice but to pinch hit for Masset in the 10th. Masset gets the job done and gets the game to extra innings, but now Baker left himself managing an extra inning game without his long reliever.

Oops.


Top of the 11th inning

After a Jay Bruce walk, the Reds have Brandon Phillips on second base and Bruce on first base with only one out. Renyel Pinto starts using a high leg-kick motion on the mound, a leg-kick so high that Phillips could have gotten a massive jump and swiped third base easily if he chose to do so. Instead Phillips goes nowhere, and Ramon Hernandez lifts a deep fly ball to left field. Had Phillips made his way over to third base, he scores easily on that fly ball.

That's lost opportunity number two right there as the Reds ultimately do not score.


Top of the 12th inning

After a Paul Janish leadoff single, Baker sends up Darnell McDonald to attempt a sacrifice bunt to move Janish to second base. At this point, McDonald is the second last position player to enter the game for the Reds with only Ryan Hanigan remaining on the bench. If McDonald's only instruction was to bunt, then Baker could have sent up either Bronson Arroyo or Johnny Cueto to do just that. Instead, he burns a position player and McDonald ultimately grounds into a double play.


And finally, the best is saved for last ...

The Marlins batted in no less than 8 different innings during which the game was tied 2-2 (7th, 8th, 9th, 10th, 11th, 12th, 13th and 14th), with five of those frames coming in extra innings.

Francisco Cordero, the Reds' best reliever, does not make an appearance at all during the game. It is simply absurd how much Dusty Baker is tied to the save rule that he is unable to use Cordero in some of the highest leverage situations the Reds will see all season. The fact that the Reds played a 14-inning game that was tied 2-2 for 8 innings and Cordero doesn't make an appearance is beyond ridiculous.

Not only that, but Baker's plan was to bring in Micah Owings after Herrera rather than Cordero if the game went beyond 14 innings. That sure would have been a brilliant plan to still keep your team's best reliever sitting in the bullpen while trotting out a starting pitcher who threw 102 pitches two days ago.

The Reds flat deserved to lose last night's game. The Marlins didn't win it; the Reds simply lost it. And considering Baker was going to trot out Owings in a situation that risks injury, it's probably for the better that they went ahead and blew the game in the 14th inning.

westofyou
05-05-2009, 10:24 AM
The Reds flat deserved to lose last night's game. The Marlins didn't win it; the Reds simply lost it.

Baseball is a game of attrition, it's hard to pin an extra inning loss on one or even two events, but it eventually is a wait for a mistake to occur or for your talent to wane beneath the other teams. I'm sure we can look at The Marlins decisions and compile a list as well. But the fact is they won on a failed DP.

bucksfan2
05-05-2009, 10:29 AM
Mantra for the 2009 season: BLAME DUSTY

redsmetz
05-05-2009, 10:29 AM
I would be curious to hear why our runners weren't trying to steal some bases. Someone asked whether Taveras has a green light all of the time. It was mentioned, correctly I think, that if you're going to rely on the small ball model, you need to make things happen. I saw no mention in Fay's story this morning (no surprise there) indicating that Baker was even asked about this. I agree that we had opportunities to win last night's game and we didn't take them. I'd like to hear why. It's just one game, but we can ill afford to not seize chances to win games like that.

BRM
05-05-2009, 10:31 AM
Mantra for the 2009 season: BLAME DUSTY

Cyclone didn't pin all the blame on Dusty Baker.

membengal
05-05-2009, 10:32 AM
Mantra for the 2009 season: BLAME DUSTY

Mantra for 2009: whine about people asking questions about the Reds' performance.

westofyou
05-05-2009, 10:35 AM
I would be curious to hear why our runners weren't trying to steal some bases. Someone asked whether Taveras has a green light all of the time. It was mentioned, correctly I think, that if you're going to rely on the small ball model, you need to make things happen. I saw no mention in Fay's story this morning (no surprise there) indicating that Baker was even asked about this. I agree that we had opportunities to win last night's game and we didn't take them. I'd like to hear why. It's just one game, but we can ill afford to not seize chances to win games like that.

Common misconception of Dusty's approach is that the team steals more, not true. Dusty team's tend to have more plays on then other teams, that includes moving with the pitch, hit and runs, sacrifices and hitting the ball to the other side. All these are beyond sit and wait baseball which the Reds played for most of the decade, a steal is still a potential out and holding onto those outs is what we want the Reds to do and only steal if they feel if it's a high leverage move.

Orenda
05-05-2009, 10:36 AM
Not only that, but Baker's plan was to bring in Micah Owings after Herrera rather than Cordero if the game went beyond 14 innings. That sure would have been a brilliant plan to still keep your team's best reliever sitting in the bullpen while trotting out a starting pitcher who threw 102 pitches two days ago.

The Reds flat deserved to lose last night's game. The Marlins didn't win it; the Reds simply lost it. And considering Baker was going to trot out Owings in a situation that risks injury, it's probably for the better that they went ahead and blew the game in the 14th inning.

I didn't make it all the way through the game last night, did he have Owings warming up? From the looks of the box score the pitching was really good once again from the Reds. Now if Baker was thinking about bringing in Owings I agree that is pretty idiotic, especially after the whole Harang ordeal last season, but if your offense only gets two runs in 14 innings I think those guys have to bear the brunt of most of the blame.

BRM
05-05-2009, 10:38 AM
I didn't make it all the way through the game last night, did he have Owings warming up? From the looks of the box score the pitching was really good once again from the Reds. Now if Baker was thinking about bringing in Owings I agree that is pretty idiotic, especially after the whole Harang ordeal last season, but if your offense only gets two runs in 14 innings I think those guys have to bear the brunt of most of the blame.

I don't know if he was warming up but Dusty was quoted as saying Micah was going to pitch after Herrera.

Cyclone792
05-05-2009, 10:43 AM
I didn't make it all the way through the game last night, did he have Owings warming up? From the looks of the box score the pitching was really good once again from the Reds. Now if Baker was thinking about bringing in Owings I agree that is pretty idiotic, especially after the whole Harang ordeal last season, but if your offense only gets two runs in 14 innings I think those guys have to bear the brunt of most of the blame.

Baker told Fay that Owings was next in line after Herrera.

Francisco Cordero warmed up five different times in last night's game, but he didn't get in. And still Baker was going to use Owings over Cordero if Herrera would have put up a zero.

The Reds had opportunities in the 8th inning and 11th inning to force the issue in an attempt to push across a scratch run, and they didn't do it either time.

The 8th inning with Taveras on the bases is the big head scratcher. Impact base stealers, the type that are game-changers, can steal a bag in that situation with extremely high success rates to raise the leverage stakes and give the offense a chance. Barry Larkin in his prime during the early to mid 90s was just that guy. Meanwhile, Taveras thus far in 2009 isn't that guy.

Chip R
05-05-2009, 10:46 AM
Francisco Cordero warmed up five different times in last night's game, but he didn't get in. And still Baker was going to use Owings over Cordero if Herrera would have put up a zero.



I know some managers won't pitch a guy if he's warmed up at least twice and still hasn't got into the game.

KoryMac5
05-05-2009, 10:49 AM
I asked the question last night and I will state again I don't think Willy T has the green light. Dusty sticks to his old school rules that say you don't run yourself out of an inning with your best hitter coming up. I haven't had many complaints about Dusty this year, but not having Willy T on 3rd base with Votto up cost us this game tonight.

Falls City Beer
05-05-2009, 10:52 AM
They've won more one run games this season than they've lost. FWIW.

Cyclone792
05-05-2009, 10:53 AM
I know some managers won't pitch a guy if he's warmed up at least twice and still hasn't got into the game.

That may or may not be the case with Baker, but if so, then he essentially wasted his bullets in the bullpen rather than the game.

I'm not sure when Cordero first got warmed up in the pen, but we know it was likely when the game was tied at 2 at some point either in the 9th inning or early in extra innings such as the 10th or 11th. If that's when Cordero was warmed up, then that's when he should have been used since that's about as high leverage as it gets.

redsmetz
05-05-2009, 10:55 AM
They've won more one run games this season than they've lost. FWIW.

Thats for the perspective, FCB. Seasons are long affairs and you'll see these sort of games throughout any given season even in championship years. Sure you want to win a game like this, but sometimes you lose them. Tomorrow's a new day.

BRM
05-05-2009, 10:57 AM
They've won more one run games this season than they've lost. FWIW.

They are 3-3 in one run games this year.

Falls City Beer
05-05-2009, 11:05 AM
They are 3-3 in one run games this year.

You're right. I had meant to write "before last night's game." But still, .500 in one-run games is hardly any indictment, either way.

The largest point is that the offense flat didn't get it done last night against a pretty mediocre Marlins' pen. I followed the game through the 12th and didn't flinch at any of Dusty's moves.

Chip R
05-05-2009, 11:07 AM
That may or may not be the case with Baker, but if so, then he essentially wasted his bullets in the bullpen rather than the game.

I'm not sure when Cordero first got warmed up in the pen, but we know it was likely when the game was tied at 2 at some point either in the 9th inning or early in extra innings such as the 10th or 11th. If that's when Cordero was warmed up, then that's when he should have been used since that's about as high leverage as it gets.


True enough. I believe it was Whitey Herzog who said that if he warms up a reliever twice in a game he either puts him in or doesn't pitch him. And Dusty has used Cordero in non save situations before so there really was no excuse this time.

I'm not going to freak out about a 14 inning loss where the Reds lost on an error. Harang and the whole bullpen - even Lincoln - pitched very well. I did wonder why Owings didn't pinch hit but then I found out he was going in after Herrera. If that was the case it was probably a good thing the Reds lost.

bucksfan2
05-05-2009, 11:13 AM
Baker told Fay that Owings was next in line after Herrera.

Don't really know why Owings would be next in line. Maybe it was to get his bat into the game? Was the pitchers spot up next?


Francisco Cordero warmed up five different times in last night's game, but he didn't get in. And still Baker was going to use Owings over Cordero if Herrera would have put up a zero.

Jeff Brantley said that closers don't like pitching in non-save situation. I will take his word for it. I would have saved Cordero until a save situation but then again that is just my thinking.


The Reds had opportunities in the 8th inning and 11th inning to force the issue in an attempt to push across a scratch run, and they didn't do it either time.

The 8th inning with Taveras on the bases is the big head scratcher. Impact base stealers, the type that are game-changers, can steal a bag in that situation with extremely high success rates to raise the leverage stakes and give the offense a chance. Barry Larkin in his prime during the early to mid 90s was just that guy. Meanwhile, Taveras thus far in 2009 isn't that guy.

Some times you just don't get a good read on the pitcher. I agree with you that its a head scratcher as to why Taveras and Phillips didn't attempt to steal a base. But those two guys have the green light to steal whenever so it is more on them than it is the manager.

One run extra inning losses hurt. Especially when the pitching staff pitches very well. But the Marlins also had chances before the 14th inning and didn't score.

Cyclone792
05-05-2009, 11:18 AM
Jeff Brantley said that closers don't like pitching in non-save situation. I will take his word for it. I would have saved Cordero until a save situation but then again that is just my thinking.

The save needs to be scrapped entirely. It is utterly mind-blowing how teams will run to use their closer/best relief pitcher in the 9th inning with a three run lead while not using him in any one or two of five extra innings during a tie ballgame.

We're getting close now where smart teams will start to figure out bullpen leverage and start using it to their advantage. Backward-thinking teams will be left in the dust.



Some times you just don't get a good read on the pitcher. I agree with you that its a head scratcher as to why Taveras and Phillips didn't attempt to steal a base. But those two guys have the green light to steal whenever so it is more on them than it is the manager.

I blame Taveras and Phillips moreso than Baker, unless Baker specifically told them not to run (and that's an unknown at this point). As more time goes by, Taveras is proving that his uses are fewer and farther between. The Reds thought they were signing an impact base stealer, but an actual impact base stealer makes an impact in the top of the 8th inning.

westofyou
05-05-2009, 11:26 AM
The save needs to be scrapped entirely. It is utterly mind-blowing how teams will run to use their closer/best relief pitcher in the 9th inning with a three run lead while not using him in any one or two of five extra innings during a tie ballgame.

We're getting close now where smart teams will start to figure out bullpen leverage and start using it to their advantage. Backward-thinking teams will be left in the dust.



Yep, if an arbitrary stat is what enthuses one to complete the job they are playing for then I'm at a loss. The game is a game of outs and runs, prevent and create and each player has a hand in that, no matter the situation.

I bet you never heard of a pinch hitter type (Burgess, Mota, Lenny Harris) who claimed they couldn't hit in certain situations because of the current state of the game.

It's a cop out.

Chip R
05-05-2009, 11:45 AM
The save needs to be scrapped entirely. It is utterly mind-blowing how teams will run to use their closer/best relief pitcher in the 9th inning with a three run lead while not using him in any one or two of five extra innings during a tie ballgame.



What I guess has been happening since closers started to get paid is that they and their agents "lobby" the manager to use them in any closing situation - even if it is a 3 run lead. Putting them in a tie game doesn't do much for them even if they win the game and a loss is a negative, of course. Closers get paid for racking up saves not holds or wins. Wins for closers can be negative too. If a closer comes in in a save situation and he blows the game and his team comes back to win of course he gets a win but he also blew the save to get that win.

membengal
05-05-2009, 11:49 AM
What probably enthuses them, woy, I would guess, is what Chip is getting at. No way the Players Association lets the saves stat go by the wayside, Cyclone. It has been a lucrative development for players.

Cyclone792
05-05-2009, 11:54 AM
What probably enthuses them, woy, I would guess, is what Chip is getting at. No way the Players Association lets the saves stat go by the wayside, Cyclone. It has been a lucrative development for players.

It would have to be replaced by something better. What we likely need to happen is to have something like Leverage Index or a similar/better tool get mainstream. If it gets mainsteam enough, you might see a movement toward it.

Still, I fully expect a handful of teams to move ahead of the pack and throw away the backward-thinking. That's usually how these types of pushes grow their initial legs anyhow.

westofyou
05-05-2009, 11:58 AM
What probably enthuses them, woy, I would guess, is what Chip is getting at. No way the Players Association lets the saves stat go by the wayside, Cyclone. It has been a lucrative development for players.

Players actually don't have a say in rules IIRC, the MLB has a rules committee that covers that aspect of the league. Now it probably won't go away, but a paradigm would be if MLB approached the situation as they did prior to the LaRussa years and told the players/agents that they would be using pitchers the way they (the team) deemed the most efficient way. In return the team would tell the player that they wouldn't cite saves/blown saves in contract negotiations.

bucksfan2
05-05-2009, 12:17 PM
The save needs to be scrapped entirely. It is utterly mind-blowing how teams will run to use their closer/best relief pitcher in the 9th inning with a three run lead while not using him in any one or two of five extra innings during a tie ballgame.

We're getting close now where smart teams will start to figure out bullpen leverage and start using it to their advantage. Backward-thinking teams will be left in the dust.

Im curious as to who the smart teams are who are using their closer in the pressure situation instead of the traditional situation? How do you determine that pressure situation during the game instead of after the game? Its easy to sit back here in hindsight and say Dusty should have used Cordero earlier but when would you have used him? The 10th inning? 11th inning? 12th inning? What happens if the Reds score in the 13th inning but Cordero is gone and Herrera gives up 2 runs?

Closing is more psychological than anything. What would the impact of the game be if Cordero was used in a pressure packed situation in the 7th inning but then wasn't available in the 9th? Would the psyche change considering for both teams? Would an opposing team be more successful off a David Weathers in the 9th than a Cordero?

It seems as if claims of having "a closers" being archaic have begun to arise lately. Some claim that there is a better way to use your bullpen than saving your best pitcher for the 9th inning. But every team continues to use that philosophy when it comes to end of game situations. The teams who are able to leverage their bullpens in a different way are able to do so because they have a depth of live arms at their disposal. Closing to me seems to be more of a psychological issues than anything. Until a team is able to prove in a successful manner that a closer is better off being used not in the 9th inning but when deemed "the pressure situation" then I will continue to believe that the traditional way of using the closer is best.

westofyou
05-05-2009, 12:27 PM
Closing is more psychological than anything.

Anything?

Can you quantify that? ;)

I'd say closing is using a pitcher at his peak (first 30 pitches) in a tense situation. Which could be in the 7th or the 9th. It's stopping a chance for the other team to capitalize on an opportunity, it's not exclusive in the definition to only being assigned to the last 3 outs of the 27 you have to get.

RichRed
05-05-2009, 12:29 PM
Jeff Brantley said that closers don't like pitching in non-save situation. I will take his word for it. I would have saved Cordero until a save situation but then again that is just my thinking.


If so, that's a weak defense. For $48 million, Cordero should be prepared to take the ball no matter the situation. If he's really their best reliever, he should have no problem getting that tough out. And the manager should have no problem calling on him to get that tough out.

westofyou
05-05-2009, 12:33 PM
But every team continues to use that philosophy when it comes to end of game situations.

You do realize that the use of a 1 inning closer is only about 25 years old in practice, it's not a died in wool approach, nor is it etched in stone to be around forever. They said the steal was dead more than once too.

Bob Borkowski
05-05-2009, 12:46 PM
You do realize that the use of a 1 inning closer is only about 25 years old in practice,

Yeah, the first time I remember it happening was when Pete Rose started using John Franco by bringing him in in the 9th even though the pitcher who was already in the game was in a groove. That was in the late 80's.

I didn't like it. Don't really like it now.

Chip R
05-05-2009, 12:49 PM
Closing is more psychological than anything. What would the impact of the game be if Cordero was used in a pressure packed situation in the 7th inning but then wasn't available in the 9th? Would the psyche change considering for both teams? Would an opposing team be more successful off a David Weathers in the 9th than a Cordero?



I think a lot of it is psychological. There may be somewhat of a comfort level for players. Cordero is used to pitching in pressure situations in the 9th inning. If you put him in there in the 7th, he may not be as effective because that's not a situation he's used to. I think players are comfortable when they are in defined roles. We've all heard of the regular player who isn't a very good pinch hitter and vice versa. That's not to say they can't thrive in a role that's different than the one they are currently in but it may take some getting used to.

Cyclone792
05-05-2009, 01:16 PM
Im curious as to who the smart teams are who are using their closer in the pressure situation instead of the traditional situation?

For starters, Tampa Bay did a fairly nice job of this last year.


How do you determine that pressure situation during the game instead of after the game? Its easy to sit back here in hindsight and say Dusty should have used Cordero earlier but when would you have used him? The 10th inning? 11th inning? 12th inning? What happens if the Reds score in the 13th inning but Cordero is gone and Herrera gives up 2 runs?

Leverage Index has already figured this out.


It seems as if claims of having "a closers" being archaic have begun to arise lately. Some claim that there is a better way to use your bullpen than saving your best pitcher for the 9th inning. But every team continues to use that philosophy when it comes to end of game situations. The teams who are able to leverage their bullpens in a different way are able to do so because they have a depth of live arms at their disposal. Closing to me seems to be more of a psychological issues than anything. Until a team is able to prove in a successful manner that a closer is better off being used not in the 9th inning but when deemed "the pressure situation" then I will continue to believe that the traditional way of using the closer is best.

Traditional? You mean what's happened in the last 20-25 years only?

bucksfan2
05-05-2009, 01:29 PM
For starters, Tampa Bay did a fairly nice job of this last year.

With the exception that, when healthy, Troy Percival was the closer. When the game was close he, more often than not, was there at the end of the game to close the game. So the Rays may have use the pen more along the lines of the way you wanted them to but they still had a defined closer.

I agree with ChipR on this comfort level that players feel. There is a routine that a closer goes through. They have done it over and over again. When you take a player out of his routine things can get bad, quickly. You can be a great player but if you are taken out of your routine, or put in situations that you aren't used to, you may not have the same success level.

Sure the current version of closer dates 20-30 years but there are other pitching realted things that I doubt you will see again. Will you ever see a 4 man rotation for an entire season? Will you ever see a pitcher get to 300 wins? Will you ever see pitchers pitch as many innings as they did in the 60's and 70's? Will you ever see the time when specialists and middle relievers go by the wayside?

Bullpens have obviously changed since the mid 80's. It may change in the future but personally I don't see closers going anywhere anytime soon.

Falls City Beer
05-05-2009, 01:34 PM
I know Dusty's used Cordero in non-save situations this season. I don't know how many times, but he has.

nate
05-05-2009, 01:39 PM
I know Dusty's used Cordero in non-save situations this season. I don't know how many times, but he has.

It looks like twice: the first game of the year and the last game Cordero pitched (see the "Dec" column):



Rk Gcar Gtm Date Tm Opp Rslt Inngs Dec DR IP H R ER BB SO HR HBP ERA BF Pit Str StL StS GB FB LD Unk GSc IR IS SB CS PO AB 2B 3B GDP WPA aLI Entered Exited
1 543 1 Apr6 CIN NYM L1-2 9-GF 99 1.0 1 0 0 1 1 0 0 0.00 4 20 12 5 1 0 2 1 0 0 0 0 1 1 3 0 0 0 0.04 0.67 9t --- 0 out d1 9t end d 1
2 544 3 Apr9 CIN NYM W8-6 9-GF S(1) 2 1.0 0 0 0 0 3 0 0 0.00 3 13 9 5 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 3 0 0 0 0.08 1.04 9t --- 0 out a2 9t end a 2
3 545 6 Apr13 CIN MIL W7-6 9-GF S(2) 3 1.0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0.00 4 17 9 4 0 1 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 3 0 0 0 0.20 4.10 9b --- 0 out a1 9b end a 1
4 546 9 Apr17 CIN HOU W2-1 9-GF S(3) 3 1.0 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.00 4 21 12 2 2 2 2 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 4 0 0 1 0.20 4.59 9b --- 0 out a1 9b end a 1
5 547 11 Apr19 CIN HOU W4-2 9-GF S(4) 1 1.0 1 1 1 2 1 0 0 1.80 6 32 19 4 3 0 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 3 0 0 0 0.04 2.48 9b --- 0 out a3 9b end a 2
6 548 12 Apr20 CIN HOU W4-3 9-GF S(5) 0 1.0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 1.50 4 16 9 1 1 0 4 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 4 0 0 0 0.20 3.72 9b --- 0 out a1 9b end a 1
7 549 14 Apr22 CIN CHC W3-0 9-GF S(6) 1 1.0 1 0 0 0 1 0 0 1.29 4 12 7 2 0 1 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 4 0 0 0 0.05 0.86 9b --- 0 out a3 9b end a 3
8 550 19 Apr27 CIN HOU L1-4 9-GF L(0-1) 4 1.0 3 3 2 0 2 0 0 3.38 6 23 17 2 5 1 3 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 5 1 0 0 -0.46 1.66 9t --- 0 out tie 9t end d 3
9 551 21 Apr29 CIN HOU W3-0 9-GF S(7) 1 1.0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 3.00 3 10 7 4 1 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 3 0 0 0 0.04 0.48 9t --- 0 out a3 9t end a 3
10 552 22 May1 CIN PIT W4-0 9-GF 1 1.0 1 0 0 0 2 0 0 2.70 4 20 13 8 2 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 4 0 0 0 0.02 0.57 9b --- 0 out a4 9b end a 4

Chip R
05-05-2009, 01:41 PM
I know Dusty's used Cordero in non-save situations this season. I don't know how many times, but he has.


You're right, he has. I remember he used him the other day in PIT with a 4 run lead. I think he used him in the 2nd game against HOU during the last homestand since he hadn't got much work over the previous days. Dusty also used him in a tie game which he gave up the winning run.

Cyclone792
05-05-2009, 01:44 PM
With the exception that, when healthy, Troy Percival was the closer. When the game was close he, more often than not, was there at the end of the game to close the game. So the Rays may have use the pen more along the lines of the way you wanted them to but they still had a defined closer.Sure the current version of closer dates 20-30 years but there are other pitching realted things that I doubt you will see again. Will you ever see a 4 man rotation for an entire season? Will you ever see a pitcher get to 300 wins? Will you ever see pitchers pitch as many innings as they did in the 60's and 70's? Will you ever see the time when specialists and middle relievers go by the wayside?

Tampa Bay did a fairly nice job of it. They didn't do a bang up job, but they did a better job than most every other team. The point is they moved in that direction last year, and it worked out beyond well for them.


Bullpens have obviously changed since the mid 80's. It may change in the future but personally I don't see closers going anywhere anytime soon.

The game flows in a direction that only the game knows. What may be unheard of now may be the norm in 30 years because the game continually evolves.

nate
05-05-2009, 01:53 PM
The game flows in a direction that only the game knows. What may be unheard of now may be the norm in 30 years because the game continually evolves.

I really don't think this can be overemphasized.

westofyou
05-05-2009, 01:55 PM
I really don't think this can be overemphasized.

True, thinking that the game is attuned to only your time on this earth is a major fallacy in understanding the shifting landscape that it resides on.

OnBaseMachine
05-05-2009, 01:59 PM
I'll just post this in here.

I didn't notice just how far Hanley Ramirez was out of the baseline on the last play of the game until I just saw the replay on Sportscenter. Ramirez was out of the baseline by five feet. He wasn't even close to the bag. Was the umpire sleeping or what? Ramirez should have been called out. That would've put a runner on 3rd base with two outs. Horrible umpiring.

RichRed
05-05-2009, 02:02 PM
I'll just post this in here.

I didn't notice just how far Hanley Ramirez was out of the baseline on the last play of the game until I just saw the replay on Sportscenter. Ramirez was out of the baseline by five feet. He wasn't even close to the bag. Was the umpire sleeping or what? Ramirez should have been called out. That would've put a runner on 3rd base with two outs. Horrible umpiring.

Absolutely, Ramirez was nowhere near the bag. They might still be playing now if that was called correctly.

OnBaseMachine
05-05-2009, 02:11 PM
Here's the video of Hanley Ramirez.

http://mlb.mlb.com/media/video.jsp?content_id=4423211

I hope the umpire enjoyed his nap. He should be well rested for tonight's game.

TRF
05-05-2009, 02:38 PM
Here's the video of Hanley Ramirez.

http://mlb.mlb.com/media/video.jsp?content_id=4423211

I hope the umpire enjoyed his nap. He should be well rested for tonight's game.

that was appalling.

bucksfan2
05-05-2009, 03:06 PM
Tampa Bay did a fairly nice job of it. They didn't do a bang up job, but they did a better job than most every other team. The point is they moved in that direction last year, and it worked out beyond well for them.

The game flows in a direction that only the game knows. What may be unheard of now may be the norm in 30 years because the game continually evolves.

I just don't think that the Rays did anything like you wanted. Every game they had a designated closer. When Percival was healthy he was the closer and when he wasn't Wheeler was the closer. It may be a similar situation to the Tigers bullpen of a few years ago. Zumaya and Rodney had the best arms but Todd Jones was the closer on the team. The deeper the pen the more flexibility a manager has. But don't underestimate the value of having a Rivera or KRod in the pen to finish off a game.

I agree with the second part. Who knows where the game will be 10 years from now.

Cyclone792
05-05-2009, 03:24 PM
I just don't think that the Rays did anything like you wanted.

No, they didn't do everything like I wanted, but they moved in a direction toward using their best relievers in high leverage situations. To put another way, they took a few small baby steps.

Baby steps is how the game will change; it won't be just flipping the switch. Forward-thinking teams will look at games such as the Reds last night and realize that a caliber reliever such as Francisco Cordero should have made an appearance in the 9th inning or 10th inning, if nothing else, to push the rest of the Reds relievers back an additional inning.

IslandRed
05-05-2009, 03:31 PM
I didn't notice just how far Hanley Ramirez was out of the baseline on the last play of the game until I just saw the replay on Sportscenter. Ramirez was out of the baseline by five feet. He wasn't even close to the bag. Was the umpire sleeping or what? Ramirez should have been called out. That would've put a runner on 3rd base with two outs. Horrible umpiring.

Guess which Marlin is going to be standing there if a Red decides to take the same advantage of the relaxed definition of "baseline"?

I wouldn't be shocked to see a scrum after a 4-6-3 in the next two days, is all I'm saying.

cincy09
05-05-2009, 04:42 PM
Guess which Marlin is going to be standing there if a Red decides to take the same advantage of the relaxed definition of "baseline"?

I wouldn't be shocked to see a scrum after a 4-6-3 in the next two days, is all I'm saying.

Any chance Edinson takes care of it in the 1st inning?

Mario-Rijo
05-05-2009, 05:00 PM
I agree with your initial post on the matter Cyclone except when it comes to Cordero. Certainly I would have used him before I gave any consideration to using any starter. But why burn him in a high leverage situation early when you don't have to, most likely he will be used in a high leverage situation if and when we ever scored. I would have used him as the last BP arm after Herrera was finished but not until then.

But your other points in that original post was spot on.

TheNext44
05-05-2009, 05:19 PM
No, they didn't do everything like I wanted, but they moved in a direction toward using their best relievers in high leverage situations. To put another way, they took a few small baby steps.

Baby steps is how the game will change; it won't be just flipping the switch. Forward-thinking teams will look at games such as the Reds last night and realize that a caliber reliever such as Francisco Cordero should have made an appearance in the 9th inning or 10th inning, if nothing else, to push the rest of the Reds relievers back an additional inning.

Actually, I believe that that was the way the game was played before the save stat dominated managers decisions.

I grew up watching Whitey Herzog manage the Cardinals, and he would always bring Sutter in first if there was a tie game headed for extras. For exactly the same reason that you stated. When it's do or die, you want your best on the field for as long as possible.

He also would bring Sutter in as early as the 6th, if it was key moment in the game... men on base of close game, heart of the order coming up.

I think that as long as the agents complain about a manager not letting his player get saves, managers will save them for save situations only. Stupid, but it will take managers standing up to agents and the union before they start using their best reliever in the most important situations instead of just save situations.

Cyclone792
05-05-2009, 05:46 PM
I agree with your initial post on the matter Cyclone except when it comes to Cordero. Certainly I would have used him before I gave any consideration to using any starter. But why burn him in a high leverage situation early when you don't have to, most likely he will be used in a high leverage situation if and when we ever scored. I would have used him as the last BP arm after Herrera was finished but not until then.

The key words to your statement are if and when, which as we saw last night, those things never happened.

Once you're in extra innings, especially as the road team, the current inning in which you're tied is an incredibly high leverage situation. For the Reds case last night, getting through each inning unscathed gives their offense three more outs to score runs and win the game. Otherwise if they allow the opponent to score, the game's over and they lose.

It's just not sound logic to hold your best relief pitcher in the bullpen during extra innings waiting for a situation (a lead) that may never occur in the first place.

BuckeyeRedleg
05-05-2009, 05:52 PM
It's just not sound logic to hold your best relief pitcher in the bullpen during extra innings waiting for a situation (a lead) that may never occur in the first place.

Agree. I never could understand this logic.

Mario-Rijo
05-05-2009, 06:07 PM
The key words to your statement are if and when, which as we saw last night, those things never happened.

Once you're in extra innings, especially as the road team, the current inning in which you're tied is an incredibly high leverage situation. For the Reds case last night, getting through each inning unscathed gives their offense three more outs to score runs and win the game. Otherwise if they allow the opponent to score, the game's over and they lose.

It's just not sound logic to hold your best relief pitcher in the bullpen during extra innings waiting for a situation (a lead) that may never occur in the first place.

I understand, it also certainly seems like hindsight that I am stating it now. However I'm a bit of a gambler and yet also try to look at the big picture even during the game. This is one game and if you coach any game (especially this early in the season) like it's the last you are bound to make more brutal mistakes. I figure worst case scenario you bring him in with runners on in a later inning if you think you have a chance to score soon. I personally would have done the exact same thing with the pen as he did except the Masset situation and would have never brought in Owings unless I absolutely had to. I probably would have pitched Arroyo before I went with Owings even.

Dusty keeps screwing things up by using his long man in short relief knowing damn well we are likely going into extra's. He stops doing that and we don't have to sit and argue about who to use in the 14th, his long man should at least go 5 and live with the consequences.

Cyclone792
05-05-2009, 10:12 PM
May 5th: Reds shut out the Marlins with an impressive 7-0 win.

Really, this is one of the best all around games I've seen the Reds play this season. The top of the order got on base and raked - Votto reached base safely all five times - Volquez pitched very well, the baserunners did some damage finally and we saw some very nice defensive plays.

I'm still not sure why Volquez pitched the 8th inning, but fortunately the Marlins did us a major favor by hacking their way through a real quick inning.

I really wanted a 4-1 road trip, but 3-2 will be ok. Now the Reds need to ensure they win at least three games on this upcoming five game homestand.

OnBaseMachine
05-05-2009, 10:19 PM
I was hoping for at least a 3-2 road trip. They accomplished that, so I'm pleased, but it could have been better. Both losses were winnable games, especially last night.

Now hopefully they can win at least three of five on the homestand. I'm attending Saturday and Sunday's games. I'd love nothing more than to see the Reds complete a sweep or series win against the Cards.

Scrap Irony
05-05-2009, 10:22 PM
A winning road trip-- any winning road trip-- is outstanding.

Caveat Emperor
05-05-2009, 10:59 PM
Something of a statement game by the Reds -- they lost a tough game last night and rebounded to win soundly tonight. Great starting pitching gave the bullpen, essentially, a night off after they covered so many innings yesterday.

This is a big homestand -- two against the Brewers and then 3 against the current standard-bearers in the Central. Take 2 of 3 from St. Louis, and you can get an entire city thinking "Maybe..."

IslandRed
05-05-2009, 11:43 PM
Any chance Edinson takes care of it in the 1st inning?

As it turns out, he took care of it in innings one through eight. :beerme:

Kc61
05-06-2009, 12:00 AM
Was able to attend the 23 innings of baseball at Dolphin Stadium. Saw the Reds up close for the first time this year. Some observations -

Ramon Hernandez is a true pro. He executed well both games. Bunted, hit to right, clutch hits, handled throws from the outfield, blocked bad pitches. He didn't have to throw much, but he picked one guy off first. You can see whey the Reds wanted him.

The book on Rosales must be throw high cheese. He seemed to have trouble handling pitches up in the zone.

Hairston continues to be underrated. Except for the K in his last at bat, he had good at bats every time up and made a good play at shortstop on the relay throw. Obviously he's not a plus shortstop, but the offense will be better with him filling in for Gonzo.

Burton looked better but, according to the stadium gun, he topped out around 90 MPH. Volquez regularly hit 94. Actually Lincoln hit 92, higher than the other Reds hurlers in the extra inning game.

Herrera has to stop walking people.

Taveras is a competent defensive player. I don't know why his defensive rating was apparently bad last year.

I'll not discuss Votto, his excellence is so obvious. Ok, I will, the guy can just flat hit and has a big future ahead of him.

Reds seemed focused and intense. Hernandez in particular seemed to be an intense player, potentially a veteran leader on the team. Phillips was also very intense during the series. By the way, Phillips covers some ground out there.

Dusty must have realized the team didn't run enough on Monday night. Much more aggressive approach on the bases on Tuesday. I'd look for Dusty to force the issue more with aggressive running, even if it causes some outs.

For a Reds team, the pitching is unbelievable. They really need to move quickly to get a major hitter to complement Votto and Bruce. You can't waste this kind of pitching on a rebuilding year.

*BaseClogger*
05-06-2009, 12:15 AM
Burton looked better but, according to the stadium gun, he topped out around 90 MPH. Volquez regularly hit 94. Actually Lincoln hit 92, higher than the other Reds hurlers in the extra inning game.

One poster on the GT observed 93 mph:


Burton strikes him out on a 93 MPH fastball


Herrera has to stop walking people.

Agreed. His stuff isn't dominant and part of what has made him so successful is his control. He is going to need to hit his spots if he wants to get it done with trick pitches.


Taveras is a competent defensive player. I don't know why his defensive rating was apparently bad last year.

I think most of the metrics have his true skill level as around average or above average. UZR had him as -2.2 runs but had him as positive in Houston. And in a small sample with the Reds he is positive.


For a Reds team, the pitching is unbelievable. They really need to move quickly to get a major hitter to complement Votto and Bruce. You can't waste this kind of pitching on a rebuilding year.

I'm loving the pitching, but it makes me all the more frustrated about the offense because there is so much potential with this club.

Thanks for sharing you observations! :thumbup:

Kc61
05-06-2009, 12:28 AM
One poster on the GT observed 93 mph:


Thanks for sharing you observations! :thumbup:

You're welcome, I really enjoyed watching these games, even the frustrating loss Monday. Except for Herrera, every pitcher they used was effective. Whatever Burton's highest velocity was, he pitched very good innings. You have to pinch yourself to think that this is really a Reds staff.

Mario-Rijo
05-06-2009, 01:36 AM
On Burton I noticed he seemed to be a little more free and easy last night. I think before he was trying to dial it up a bit and leaving the ball up in the zone as a result. Therefore he was giving up a lot more flyballs than normal. Last night he seemed to take a little off and was down in the zone more.

And I agree I think that is why so many have been frustrated around here lately. We finally have the pitching and now the front office won't pop for a big bat. Some recognized it in the offseason thus why so many were mad at every deal that didn't result in one.

Razor Shines
05-06-2009, 01:40 AM
I couldn't be any more pleased with Joey Votto. In the last five games he has pretty much squashed any fears I had of him becoming swing happy and frustrated when the time comes for opposing pitches not to throw him strikes. He's shown to me in the last five games that he's willing to take his walk if that's what's offered to him.

Let's face it his .438 BABIP is nuts and not at all sustainable. The slump is going to come, but I honestly think that he'll do a nice job of slump proofing himself by still getting on base via the walk.

In the last 5 games his BABIP is .600 :shocked: so the slump ain't here yet. He also walked 8 times in those five games. He's gonna have a huge season. And most of you will probably say that you already knew that, but I didn't. I had been worried about what would happen when the hittable pitches become more scarce.

WVRedsFan
05-06-2009, 02:00 AM
I couldn't be any more pleased with Joey Votto. In the last five games he has pretty much squashed any fears I had of him becoming swing happy and frustrated when the time comes for opposing pitches not to throw him strikes. He's shown to me in the last five games that he's willing to take his walk if that's what's offered to him.

Let's face it his .438 BABIP is nuts and not at all sustainable. The slump is going to come, but I honestly think that he'll do a nice job of slump proofing himself by still getting on base via the walk.

In the last 5 games his BABIP is .600 :shocked: so the slump ain't here yet. He also walked 8 times in those five games. He's gonna have a huge season. And most of you will probably say that you already knew that, but I didn't. I had been worried about what would happen when the hittable pitches become more scarce.
Totally agree. And to think about everyone commenting on RZ was looking for a place to trade him at the end of last season. He has been our offense. Had some of the other guys pitched in we could be 19-7 instead of 14-12, but they didn't.

Joey will be a star.

nate
05-06-2009, 08:45 AM
And to think about everyone commenting on RZ was looking for a place to trade him at the end of last season.

Everyone was?

This is how arguments start.

membengal
05-06-2009, 08:49 AM
In fact, I think "no one" is a more accurate statement. PRIOR to his rookie campaign, two off-seasons ago, there was talk about whether to deal him to Baltimore for Bedard. That had more support, perhaps, but certainly NOT universal.

Chip R
05-06-2009, 09:47 AM
In fact, I think "no one" is a more accurate statement. PRIOR to his rookie campaign, two off-seasons ago, there was talk about whether to deal him to Baltimore for Bedard. That had more support, perhaps, but certainly NOT universal.


Correct. Most of the talk about Votto in the offseason was that he should move to LF so Alonso can play 1B.

Kc61
05-06-2009, 11:20 PM
I'm interested to read the comments by Baker and others after tonight's blowout loss to the Brewers. I hope they don't make a bunch of excuses for Arroyo's performance. These annual meltdowns cannot be accepted.

It might be less egregious on the road. But coming home after a good win last night, against a division rival, this pitching performance should not just be brushed off by the club.

Somehow, I'd like to see a message sent that this kind of game is simply unacceptable.

It only counts as one loss in the standings. But the young Reds need to be showed right now that the team's management will not accept these kinds of lapses.

I remember Leyland blasting his Tigers a few years back for ending a road trip with a half hearted performance. I think the Reds should do something similar tonight.

Any paying fan who shelled out hard earned money for a ticket to this game - paying to see their favorite team return from a road trip - has a right to be angry and the Reds should be on the fans' side tonight.

traderumor
05-06-2009, 11:53 PM
I'm not sure any pitcher can do anything about when he does and doesn't have stuff. When you throw lollipops like Arroyo, you've got to have control. He had no idea where the ball was going, which I think had nothing to do with effort.

As for Jim Leyland, he sneaks to smoke cigs in the dugout too. Maybe Dusty can emulate that as well.

These games happen, just less frequently with good teams. Whether the Reds are good or not is still the question.

mth123
05-07-2009, 03:11 AM
I'm not sure any pitcher can do anything about when he does and doesn't have stuff. When you throw lollipops like Arroyo, you've got to have control. He had no idea where the ball was going, which I think had nothing to do with effort.

As for Jim Leyland, he sneaks to smoke cigs in the dugout too. Maybe Dusty can emulate that as well.

These games happen, just less frequently with good teams. Whether the Reds are good or not is still the question.

Exactly. Its one game where a starter got it handed to him. He didn't have it and should probably not have gone back out there in the 2nd ,but I understand why he was left in. Every team has these. Arroyo's seem to be worse and may harm the ERA and kill your fantasy stats, but as far as the standing go, its the same as if they lost 4-3.

membengal
05-07-2009, 07:59 AM
Altho, again, to a fanbase deciding if it wants to buy in, it is a LOT worse when it is 15-3 and is 9-0 before the fourth out is recorded in your return home.

remdog
05-07-2009, 08:13 AM
Arroyo pitched a terrific game against the Bucs in his prior start. However, he got pounded by the Braves for 9 ER in 5.2 innings and now gets completely beat up by the Brewers. That doesn't exactly give me confidence that it's just one of those games that every team goes through in a long season.

Bronson's next start will be watched closely.

Rem

Kc61
05-07-2009, 08:38 AM
Exactly. Its one game where a starter got it handed to him. He didn't have it and should probably not have gone back out there in the 2nd ,but I understand why he was left in. Every team has these. Arroyo's seem to be worse and may harm the ERA and kill your fantasy stats, but as far as the standing go, its the same as if they lost 4-3.


Every team has these games, but every team doesn't accept them.

It depends on the message an organization wants to send to the players, the fans, and the baseball world in general.

The message of "just one game, no big deal, let's just forget it and go on to tomorrow" is the wrong message in the Reds' situation IMO. It's the beginning of a homestand, the team doesn't win at home, the fans don't buy tickets, and you give up nine runs before somebody can buy two hot dogs and a beer.

And I thought Arroyo threw a lot of junk in those two innings and the Brewers were waiting for it. If his fastball is that terrible, maybe the Reds should get somebody who has one.

redsmetz
05-07-2009, 08:42 AM
I'm interested to read the comments by Baker and others after tonight's blowout loss to the Brewers. I hope they don't make a bunch of excuses for Arroyo's performance. These annual meltdowns cannot be accepted. Does Dusty stand Bronson in the middle of the clubhouse and severely chastise him? Do we cut him since such a performance is unacceptable?

It might be less egregious on the road. But coming home after a good win last night, against a division rival, this pitching performance should not just be brushed off by the club.

Somehow, I'd like to see a message sent that this kind of game is simply unacceptable.

It only counts as one loss in the standings. But the young Reds need to be showed right now that the team's management will not accept these kinds of lapses.

I remember Leyland blasting his Tigers a few years back for ending a road trip with a half hearted performance. I think the Reds should do something similar tonight.

Any paying fan who shelled out hard earned money for a ticket to this game - paying to see their favorite team return from a road trip - has a right to be angry and the Reds should be on the fans' side tonight.

How does this play out in the real world? The offense pretty much played like it has all season and we know that lives no room for meltdowns. But how do you deal with this as a team other than to say, as Traderumor correctly said, games like this happen. Back on the horse and lets get them tomorrow.

No question, it's an unfortunate way to start a home stand when you're hoping to increase fan interest and enthusiasm. A veteran like Arroyo knows that and I'm guessing he was his biggest critic. And if I understand his work correctly, he's always going to walk a tightrope like this. When he has it, he's a good steady pitcher, but when he doesn't have it, Katie bar the door.

What I really worry about is whether Paul Janish will ever get a chance to reduce his ERA down from 45.00. Seriously though, even with last night's disaster, the team ERA is still under 4.00 (at 3.99). No getting around, it's one game and has no bigger difference than the 2-1 loss on Opening Day.

Kc61
05-07-2009, 08:57 AM
No question, it's an unfortunate way to start a home stand when you're hoping to increase fan interest and enthusiasm. A veteran like Arroyo knows that and I'm guessing he was his biggest critic. And if I understand his work correctly, he's always going to walk a tightrope like this. .

Just read Arroyo's comments on the Reds website. Saying that pitching is like walking into a casino and you just never know what will happen. That doesn't sound to me like a guy who's his own biggest critic.

Sounds to me like Reds baseball as usual. Of course, I don't know what was said behind closed doors.

bucksfan2
05-07-2009, 08:59 AM
Every team has these games, but every team doesn't accept them.

It depends on the message an organization wants to send to the players, the fans, and the baseball world in general.

The message of "just one game, no big deal, let's just forget it and go on to tomorrow" is the wrong message in the Reds' situation IMO. It's the beginning of a homestand, the team doesn't win at home, the fans don't buy tickets, and you give up nine runs before somebody can buy two hot dogs and a beer.

And I thought Arroyo threw a lot of junk in those two innings and the Brewers were waiting for it. If his fastball is that terrible, maybe the Reds should get somebody who has one.

Every team does have these. There will be a game this season in which the Reds chase a starter early and can do no wrong at the plate. Starts like tonight are a prime reason why Arroyo is the pitcher he is. He can look absolutely dominant at times, be a good pitcher for the bulk of the season, but you sprinkle in a few starts like last night and he looks your league average pitcher. He did this the first half of last year and he did this the year prior.

Every organization deals with losses like this in a different way. You can come out yelling and screaming in the media but what good will that do. The loss is pinned on Arroyo and he will take the blame for it as well. I agree that it was a bad time for this performance, but they get a chance to redeem themselves tonight.

nate
05-07-2009, 09:18 AM
Just read Arroyo's comments on the Reds website. Saying that pitching is like walking into a casino and you just never know what will happen. That doesn't sound to me like a guy who's his own biggest critic.

Sounds to me like Reds baseball as usual. Of course, I don't know what was said behind closed doors.

Not everyone can be a urinal assassin like Billy Martin. Everyone deals with it differently. I don't think it makes much sense to let an interview quote be a "passion barometer."

RichRed
05-07-2009, 09:27 AM
There goes the ol' Pythag, eh?

Chip R
05-07-2009, 09:33 AM
There goes the ol' Pythag, eh?


Men plan. Raisor laughs.

redsmetz
05-07-2009, 10:40 AM
Just read Arroyo's comments on the Reds website. Saying that pitching is like walking into a casino and you just never know what will happen. That doesn't sound to me like a guy who's his own biggest critic.

Sounds to me like Reds baseball as usual. Of course, I don't know what was said behind closed doors.

I can't really say that's baseball as usual. It's typical of Arroyo's demeanor. He also said that the two games he came out of the bullpen feeling great were last night's game and the Braves game where he got smacked around. I think it's a bit much for Arroyo to suggest that his pitching is a bit like a casino, but the fact seems to be that he's either on or he's not and when he's not, it's not usually pretty. Time for the next game, this one's history.

traderumor
05-07-2009, 10:49 AM
Just read Arroyo's comments on the Reds website. Saying that pitching is like walking into a casino and you just never know what will happen. That doesn't sound to me like a guy who's his own biggest critic.

Sounds to me like Reds baseball as usual. Of course, I don't know what was said behind closed doors.I still don't know what you would say. Nothing that happened in that game was due to mental mistakes or lack of effort. Do you kick some chairs around? Do you attack a water cooler ala Aaron Harang, whose run support has not improved since that little tirade, BTW? Do you send three guys down to the minors ala Leather Pants?

The beauty of baseball is that it is played every day, so tomorrow is another day. The other side of that sword is that there is another game tomorrow that may be more of the same depending on the current streak that the two teams are caught up in.

bucksfan2
05-07-2009, 11:29 AM
I still don't know what you would say. Nothing that happened in that game was due to mental mistakes or lack of effort. Do you kick some chairs around? Do you attack a water cooler ala Aaron Harang, whose run support has not improved since that little tirade, BTW? Do you send three guys down to the minors ala Leather Pants?

The beauty of baseball is that it is played every day, so tomorrow is another day. The other side of that sword is that there is another game tomorrow that may be more of the same depending on the current streak that the two teams are caught up in.

How about one, Darnell McDonald.

Mario-Rijo
05-07-2009, 12:05 PM
That game, not a concern too me. Just another game in which the umpiring played a huge part.

Falls City Beer
05-07-2009, 02:03 PM
Arroyo's not a bad attitude, just a bad pitcher. All the talk of a 4-deep rotation turns out to be just that: talk. Cueto has taken a step forward, Harang looks to have stabilized, Volquez has great talent but is erratic, but Arroyo and Owings are rotation mop-up. So much for avoiding 7 ERAs from the 4 and 5 slots.

SMcGavin
05-07-2009, 02:15 PM
Arroyo's not a bad attitude, just a bad pitcher. All the talk of a 4-deep rotation turns out to be just that: talk. Cueto has taken a step forward, Harang looks to have stabilized, Volquez has great talent but is erratic, but Arroyo and Owings are rotation mop-up. So much for avoiding 7 ERAs from the 4 and 5 slots.

Coming to conclusions after 6 starts is awesome. I can see how you'd expect a 7 ERA from Arroyo based on the nearly 700 innings he has compiled in Cincinnati with a 4.20 ERA.

For the record I'm mostly in agreement on Owings (not because of four starts, my opinion on him is the same as it was preseason). He's not as bad as you're claiming here, but if the over/under on his 2009 ERA is 5.00, I'm taking the over.

Falls City Beer
05-07-2009, 02:26 PM
Coming to conclusions after 6 starts is awesome. I can see how you'd expect a 7 ERA from Arroyo based on the nearly 700 innings he has compiled in Cincinnati with a 4.20 ERA.

For the record I'm mostly in agreement on Owings (not because of four starts, my opinion on him is the same as it was preseason). He's not as bad as you're claiming here, but if the over/under on his 2009 ERA is 5.00, I'm taking the over.


Arroyo's ERA late last June was upper 6s/low 7s.

Punting a half-season only to turn it around when it doesn't matter doesn't impress me.

OUReds
05-07-2009, 02:35 PM
Arroyo's ERA late last June was upper 6s/low 7s.

Punting a half-season only to turn it around when it doesn't matter doesn't impress me.

Sooo....

If the Reds had been in the thick of things last year, Arroyo would have sabotaged it by continuing to post a 7ish ERA? is that your contention?

Falls City Beer
05-07-2009, 02:41 PM
Sooo....

If the Reds had been in the thick of things last year, Arroyo would have sabotaged it by continuing to post a 7ish ERA? is that your contention?

Not at all.

But they weren't in it. Suppositions don't matter; April matters more than August because the latter depends on the former for its existence.

Look, what we do know is that Arroyo is an arm who, if he doesn't have surgical preciseness of location, will get utterly destroyed. Literally: I could pitch and the results would look no different. Very unironically--total truth. What we do know is that his BB/9 has been on an uncomfortably precipitous slide since the end of 2007 and his ERA and FIP have demonstrated a less successful pitcher since that time.

OUReds
05-07-2009, 02:48 PM
Slumps happen to all players, and I don't think they can control when they happen.

I won't label a player as bad just because his slump comes in May instead of August.

by the end of the year Bronson will be what he is, an average pitcher making too much money. There's still plenty of value in that.

Falls City Beer
05-07-2009, 02:50 PM
Slumps happen to all players, and I don't think they can control when they happen.

I won't label a player as bad just because his slump comes in May instead of August.

by the end of the year Bronson will be what he is, an average pitcher making too much money. There's still plenty of value in that.

I will label a player as "bad" when his slumps last three months. It just doesn't help very much.

What number(s) are calling average for Arroyo? What do you predict his numbers will be by the end of the season?

traderumor
05-07-2009, 02:52 PM
Arroyo is a good fit for a back of the rotation starter, which is what he now is in the Reds rotation. I hate these blow ups as much as the next guy, but his inconsistency is a little easier to stomach when we are not relying on him for the well-pitched game of the week. The only problem with that theory is if you plug in his salary, which is top of the rotation $ in the Reds' budget. Because of that, he would be one of my first "names" to deal this year, regardless of the Reds' place in the standings, preferably right after one of his two week 3-4 start good Bronson timeframes. Package him to Milwaukee for JJ Hardy, who is in desparate need of starting pitching (yes, I know they are a division rival, I don't ascribe to that unnecessary limitation).

Falls City Beer
05-07-2009, 02:54 PM
Arroyo is a good fit for a back of the rotation starter, which is what he now is in the Reds rotation. I hate these blow ups as much as the next guy, but his inconsistency is a little easier to stomach when we are not relying on him for the well-pitched game of the week. The only problem with that theory is if you plug in his salary, which is top of the rotation $ in the Reds' budget. Because of that, he would be one of my first "names" to deal this year, regardless of the Reds' place in the standings, preferably right after one of his two week 3-4 start good Bronson timeframes. Package him to Milwaukee for JJ Hardy, who is in desparate need of starting pitching (yes, I know they are a division rival, I don't ascribe to that unnecessary limitation).


Milwaukee's starters are beginning to look a lot better. I'd rank them with the Reds'. I'd put Seth McClung in the rotation before Arroyo.

OUReds
05-07-2009, 02:56 PM
I will label a player as "bad" when his slumps last three months. It just doesn't help very much.

What number(s) are calling average for Arroyo? What do you predict his numbers will be by the end of the season?

I'm not much for predicting. Others (http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=978&position=P) do it better then I could.

We could start with under a 6.00 ERA though.

traderumor
05-07-2009, 02:57 PM
Milwaukee's starters are beginning to look a lot better. I'd rank them with the Reds'. I'd put Seth McClung in the rotation before Arroyo.Sorry, FCB, but any rotation leaning on Jeff Suppan is always on the brink.

RedsManRick
05-07-2009, 03:01 PM
Arroyo is a great case of how ERA can be misleading. Arroyo doesn't go out there and allow 5 runs every time out. He usually goes out and throws 2 quality starts and then gets bombed. Especially with this offense, I don't care if he gave up 5 runs or 9. He didn't pitch well enough to give us a chance to win. The distribution of the runs Arroyo allows tends to be extreme. ERA is simply not a great metric for the evaluation of his contributions; at least not as good as it is for pitchers who are more consistent outing to outing.

Falls City Beer
05-07-2009, 03:02 PM
Sorry, FCB, but any rotation leaning on Jeff Suppan is always on the brink.

It's fashionable to take potshots at other teams' rotations as a form of boosterism of our own, but right now Suppan is pitching circles around Arroyo.

traderumor
05-07-2009, 03:57 PM
It's fashionable to take potshots at other teams' rotations as a form of boosterism of our own, but right now Suppan is pitching circles around Arroyo.And Suppan is relied upon as an anchor of their rotation, whereas Arroyo is not. That was my real point. There is no rah-rah intent, the weakness of the Brewers' rotation, and their entire staff for that matter, was glaring as I evaluated them in the first series of the year. They lost Sheets and Sabathia and replaced them with Looper. Parra has not been good and the other young arm (name eludes me) is probably their true #1. Suppan was their opening day pitcher. So, no potshot, I think it is a fair evaluation, not some kind of repressed homerism.

Falls City Beer
05-07-2009, 04:29 PM
Last night's game will be remembered as the game this season where the Reds were winnowed out of the contention cluster which includes Chicago and St. Louis and temporarily Milwaukee. Tonight's game will be putting the corpse on ice. I'll say Milwaukee 10-4.

jojo
05-07-2009, 04:33 PM
Arroyo is a great case of how ERA can be misleading. Arroyo doesn't go out there and allow 5 runs every time out. He usually goes out and throws 2 quality starts and then gets bombed. Especially with this offense, I don't care if he gave up 5 runs or 9. He didn't pitch well enough to give us a chance to win. The distribution of the runs Arroyo allows tends to be extreme. ERA is simply not a great metric for the evaluation of his contributions; at least not as good as it is for pitchers who are more consistent outing to outing.

His FIP thus far is 6.21. :eek:

Falls City Beer
05-07-2009, 04:36 PM
His FIP thus far is 6.21. :eek:

He's not K'ing anybody and he's walking people at a rate that he can't maintain. This isn't bad luck; he's going to have to change the way he's pitching. Or better yet, go away and let Masset have his slot.

TRF
05-07-2009, 04:37 PM
Last night's game will be remembered as the game this season where the Reds were winnowed out of the contention cluster which includes Chicago and St. Louis and temporarily Milwaukee. Tonight's game will be putting the corpse on ice. I'll say Milwaukee 10-4.

Funny, I see this as the rebound game. Reds 5-3.

oneupper
05-07-2009, 04:39 PM
Arroyo is a great case of how ERA can be misleading. Arroyo doesn't go out there and allow 5 runs every time out. He usually goes out and throws 2 quality starts and then gets bombed. Especially with this offense, I don't care if he gave up 5 runs or 9. He didn't pitch well enough to give us a chance to win. The distribution of the runs Arroyo allows tends to be extreme. ERA is simply not a great metric for the evaluation of his contributions; at least not as good as it is for pitchers who are more consistent outing to outing.

OMG! W-L perhaps? :D

wheels
05-07-2009, 04:42 PM
It looks to me like Homer's gonna be in this rotation one way or the other within the next month.

Falls City Beer
05-07-2009, 04:45 PM
It looks to me like Homer's gonna be in this rotation one way or the other within the next month.

I've long argued that the excitement built up around this rotation is kind of a Rashomon-like seeing it from a pitching-starved perspective. A cracker to a starving man looks like a smorgasbord with candles and dinner mints.

It's an improvement, but it's really not a great rotation by any means.

TRF
05-07-2009, 04:48 PM
I've long argued that the excitement built up around this rotation is kind of a Rashomon-like seeing it from a pitching-starved perspective. A cracker to a starving man looks like a smorgasbord with candles and dinner mints.

It's an improvement, but it's really not a great rotation by any means.

Statistically, it's pretty darn good.

wheels
05-07-2009, 04:49 PM
I've long argued that the excitement built up around this rotation is kind of a Rashomon-like seeing it from a pitching-starved perspective. A cracker to a starving man looks like a smorgasbord with candles and dinner mints.

It's an improvement, but it's really not a great rotation by any means.

I really like that analogy, but I really like the future of this staff, too. Two of them aren't yet done cooking, but they sure smell good.

Falls City Beer
05-07-2009, 04:51 PM
Statistically, it's pretty darn good.

The cracks are starting to show. BBs continue to be a problem. When it heats up you can add HRs to the list of other problems (but to be fair, they've done a pretty good job so far of keeping balls in the park).

It's a bunch of flyball pitchers who are walking too many. That's going to catch up to them.

traderumor
05-07-2009, 05:01 PM
I've long argued that the excitement built up around this rotation is kind of a Rashomon-like seeing it from a pitching-starved perspective. A cracker to a starving man looks like a smorgasbord with candles and dinner mints.

It's an improvement, but it's really not a great rotation by any means.Compared to all MLB 2009 rotations, this is at least a top 10 rotation. Past performance does not guarantee future results, but on paper, I think that is fair, and that is very good and gets even fat, not hungry guys like me excited.

VR
05-07-2009, 05:10 PM
It's fashionable to take potshots at other teams' rotations as a form of boosterism of our own, but right now Suppan is pitching circles around Arroyo.

this year....IP/HR/BB/K

Suppan....31/6/15/18

Arroyo.....34/7/15/18


last year....IP/HR/BB/K

Suppan....177/30/67/90

Arroyo....200/29/68/163

TRF
05-07-2009, 05:10 PM
The cracks are starting to show. BBs continue to be a problem. When it heats up you can add HRs to the list of other problems (but to be fair, they've done a pretty good job so far of keeping balls in the park).

It's a bunch of flyball pitchers who are walking too many. That's going to catch up to them.

In defense of the rotation...

I think Harang is just now getting used to pitching with his new slimmer frame. He pitched a great game monday night. Harang has BB'd 9 in 6 starts, Cueto 9 in 5 starts. Volquez is the biggest offender with 25 :eek: in 6 starts. but he's gone 8 innings his last two starts while walking 5. For him, with his K totals, I can live with that rate.

Arroyo and Owing bring up the rear based on low K totals and high BB rates, though BA's BB total is 11 in 5 games started. Arroyo is the #4 starter. He knows it, we all know it. If the #4 can pitch 200 innings of 4.20 era ball, about 150 K's, then I'm ok with that.

jojo
05-07-2009, 05:14 PM
Harang, Volquez, and Cueto is a pretty good place to start as rotations go. I'd rather have Felix/Bedard as my top two but nobody is feeding Harang/Volquez/Cueto to the dogs because it's an inferior dish.

Falls City Beer
05-07-2009, 05:18 PM
Harang, Volquez, and Cueto is a pretty good place to start as rotations go. I'd rather have Felix/Bedard as my top two but nobody is feeding Harang/Volquez/Cueto to the dogs because it's an inferior dish.

But once again, the dropoff from the top 3 to 4/5 is so steep as to prevent any real win-streak momentum. 40% of your rotation giving you no chance to win is a very serious problem to have, no matter how good that other 60% is. Especially when you consider the struggles of the offense.

jojo
05-07-2009, 05:22 PM
But once again, the dropoff from the top 3 to 4/5 is so steep as to prevent any real win-streak momentum. 40% of your rotation giving you no chance to win is a very serious problem to have, no matter how good that other 60% is. Especially when you consider the struggles of the offense.

At the end of the day Arroyo is probably going to be something akin to league average.

But ya, I agree those viewing the Reds staff as potentially a "top three" staff are too optimistic, if that's your ultimate point.

Falls City Beer
05-07-2009, 05:25 PM
At the end of the day Arroyo is probably going to be something akin to league average.

But ya, I agree those viewing the Reds staff as potentially a "top three" staff are too optimistic, if that's your ultimate point.

I'd say those claiming it will be top half of the NL are being optimistic.

OnBaseMachine
05-07-2009, 05:45 PM
Arroyo's not a bad attitude, just a bad pitcher. All the talk of a 4-deep rotation turns out to be just that: talk. Cueto has taken a step forward, Harang looks to have stabilized, Volquez has great talent but is erratic, but Arroyo and Owings are rotation mop-up. So much for avoiding 7 ERAs from the 4 and 5 slots.

Wrong. Career 110 ERA+ in 685.1 IP with the Reds.

OnBaseMachine
05-07-2009, 05:50 PM
I've long argued that the excitement built up around this rotation is kind of a Rashomon-like seeing it from a pitching-starved perspective. A cracker to a starving man looks like a smorgasbord with candles and dinner mints.

It's an improvement, but it's really not a great rotation by any means.

I think it is.

Gotta love it. The rotation has been dominant through the first 26 games and they have one bad game and now it's a bad rotation. Hilarious.

OnBaseMachine
05-07-2009, 05:52 PM
Harang, Volquez, and Cueto is a pretty good place to start as rotations go. I'd rather have Felix/Bedard as my top two but nobody is feeding Harang/Volquez/Cueto to the dogs because it's an inferior dish.

I'd rather have Harang/Volquez/Cueto.

Mario-Rijo
05-07-2009, 06:42 PM
But once again, the dropoff from the top 3 to 4/5 is so steep as to prevent any real win-streak momentum. 40% of your rotation giving you no chance to win is a very serious problem to have, no matter how good that other 60% is. Especially when you consider the struggles of the offense.

That remark couldn't be further from the truth. You are the king of the overstatement FCB.

jojo
05-07-2009, 08:05 PM
I'd rather have Harang/Volquez/Cueto.

But the point suggested you could only pick 2.

OnBaseMachine
05-07-2009, 08:06 PM
But the point suggested you could only pick 2.

Then I'd rather have Volquez/Cueto.

jojo
05-07-2009, 08:07 PM
Fine, I'd still rather have Volquez/Cueto.

You're biased! :cool:

OnBaseMachine
05-07-2009, 08:09 PM
You're biased! :cool:

You are too. ;)

I just love the upside of both Cueto and Volquez, plus both are much younger than Bedard.

I love King Felix though. He's a ton of fun to watch.

jojo
05-07-2009, 08:18 PM
You are too. ;)

I just love the upside of both Cueto and Volquez, plus both are much younger than Bedard.

I love King Felix though. He's a ton of fun to watch.

I'm a fan true....but a fan of both teams. IMHO, Felix is a better righthander than either Cueto or Volquez (based upon peripherals-i.e. command, make 'em miss, and BIP tendencies). Bedard is one of the best lefties in the game (and he's back).

OUReds
05-07-2009, 08:47 PM
But once again, the dropoff from the top 3 to 4/5 is so steep as to prevent any real win-streak momentum. 40% of your rotation giving you no chance to win is a very serious problem to have, no matter how good that other 60% is. Especially when you consider the struggles of the offense.

Yet Bronson is 4-2.

FCB: 34% of the time, he fails...every time

http://i150.photobucket.com/albums/s116/hwlegend/BrianFontana.jpg

OnBaseMachine
05-23-2009, 12:29 AM
While I'm glad the Reds won tonight, that was still a very, very frustrating game. This offense desperately needs some help. A good offense would've scored seven or eight runs tonight; The Reds scored three. In the first inning, Reyes threw 23 pitches, only six for strikes. The Reds had the bases loaded, nobody out, and a 3-0 count on our cleanup hitter ... and they scored just one run. Then in the sixth inning, they had runners on second and third with only one out and again failed to score. Thankfully all those missed opportunities didn't hurt them tonight, but they can't keep doing that and expect to win games.

Those first two innings were just awful. Reyes was throwing his fastball in the 81-85 mph range with no command at all but Reds hitter kept bailing him out by chasing bad pitches. Again, thank goodness they won, but that was an ugly performance by the offense.

WebScorpion
05-23-2009, 02:26 AM
While I'm glad the Reds won tonight, that was still a very, very frustrating game. This offense desperately needs some help. A good offense would've scored seven or eight runs tonight; The Reds scored three. In the first inning, Reyes threw 23 pitches, only six for strikes. The Reds had the bases loaded, nobody out, and a 3-0 count on our cleanup hitter ... and they scored just one run. Then in the sixth inning, they had runners on second and third with only one out and again failed to score. Thankfully all those missed opportunities didn't hurt them tonight, but they can't keep doing that and expect to win games.

Those first two innings were just awful. Reyes was throwing his fastball in the 81-85 mph range with no command at all but Reds hitter kept bailing him out by chasing bad pitches. Again, thank goodness they won, but that was an ugly performance by the offense.

It's the new look Reds...We win when our pitchers hold the opponent to one run or less. Get used to it. ;)

OnBaseMachine
05-23-2009, 11:07 PM
Another rough loss tonight.

Homer Bailey's inability to throw strikes killed the Reds, as did the offense. The Indians bullpen entered this game with the third worst ERA in baseball but they shutout the Reds for six innings.

If this team plans on contending then they are going to have to learn how to beat bad teams. They need to win tomorrow, especially with Wandy Rodriguez and Roy Oswalt pitching on Monday and Tuesday. They still have a decent chance at a 5-4 homestand.

It sure is nice to have Joey Votto back.

HeatherC1212
05-24-2009, 01:42 AM
I think Joey being back may help the rest of the guys settle down a bit and stop pressing so much. I feel like they've been trying to make up the difference since Joey missed some games this week and that's not going to help the team at all. They just need to calm down, keep working the pitchers, be as patient as they can, and let the game come to them. We got to Cliff Lee last year when he was in Cy Young form and he hasn't been that guy this year so they can definitely do some damage in the game tomorrow. In theory anyway, LOL :laugh:

And for the record, seeing Joey hit two HRs in his first game back tonight was AWESOME. :D I know we lost the game in the end which sucked (and wow, what a LOOOOOONG game it was tonight :eek: ) but I'm still on cloud nine that he's finally back in the lineup and he seemed thrilled too. He was smiling a lot in the dugout during the game. :)

jojo
05-24-2009, 01:46 AM
Lee has actually been pretty good this year.

WebScorpion
05-25-2009, 12:59 AM
Lee has actually been pretty good this year. Cueto's been better. :p:

OnBaseMachine
06-10-2009, 01:44 AM
Nice win tonight. Cueto continues to pitch very well. After the rough series against the Cubs, the Reds really need to bounce back and go at least 4-2 on this road trip into Washington D.C. and Kansas City. 5-1 would be even better but 4-2 is a more reasonable goal.

The offense has got to pick it up. Three runs against the worst pitching staff in baseball just ain't getting it done.

Hopefully Harang can pitch another good game tomorrow night and lock up a series win.

CTA513
06-10-2009, 01:58 AM
Nice win tonight. Cueto continues to pitch very well. After the rough series against the Cubs, the Reds really need to bounce back and go at least 4-2 on this road trip into Washington D.C. and Kansas City. 5-1 would be even better but 4-2 is a more reasonable goal.

The offense has got to pick it up. Three runs against the worst pitching staff in baseball just ain't getting it done.

Hopefully Harang can pitch another good game tomorrow night and lock up a series win.

:thumbup:

VR
06-10-2009, 02:02 AM
Nice win tonight. Cueto continues to pitch very well. After the rough series against the Cubs, the Reds really need to bounce back and go at least 4-2 on this road trip into Washington D.C. and Kansas City. 5-1 would be even better but 4-2 is a more reasonable goal.

The offense has got to pick it up. Three runs against the worst pitching staff in baseball just ain't getting it done.

Hopefully Harang can pitch another good game tomorrow night and lock up a series win.

Votto, EE, and EV all out a significant amount of time...yet the Reds are 30-27 and 2.5 back. Good pitching is kewl.....some hot bats would be very nice for the next couple of weeks. Looks like they'll miss Greinke in KC, there's a good break for them .

OnBaseMachine
06-11-2009, 01:02 AM
Ugly, ugly win tonight.

1) This offense is just brutal. They were held to two runs through nine innings tonight and just five total runs through the first 18 innings of this series...against the worst pitching staff in all of baseball.

2.) Aaron Harang continues to have tough luck. He threw a complete game in his last start and lost. Tonight, he threw 7.2 shutout innings and got a no decision...which brings me to...

3) What in the world was Dusty Baker thinking sending Francisco Cordero back out there in the 9th inning after a two hour and ten minute rain delay? To make things worse, Cordero had pitched in five straight games. There's simply no way you can send him back out there after such a long delay. I was stunned when I saw Cordero back out there. I don't blame him at all for that blown save. Nick Masset should have pitched the 9th, IMO.

Luckily the Reds escaped with a win despite an inept offense and a bad decision by Dusty.

Ron Madden
06-11-2009, 03:45 AM
I agree with OBM.

It was just plain silly to send Cordero back out there after a 2 Hr rain delay. Dusty should have let Masset Finnish it off after the delay.

Boss-Hog
06-11-2009, 06:43 AM
All,

I don't mind keeping this thread open, but it shouldn't be used to discuss/applaud/question moves made in single games that have already been played - that's what the game threads are for.

OnBaseMachine
06-11-2009, 07:58 PM
Very disappointing series by the Reds against one of the worst teams in the history of baseball. Good teams don't score nine runs in three games against a historically bad pitching staff.

How many games has this offense lost? The pitching staff continue to do their job almost every night and the offense continues to waste it. So frustrating. This team should be about 10-12 games above .500 right now. Instead, here we are hovering around .500.

Hopefully the Hairston at 3B experiment ends soon. I didn't watch the game, but it sounds as if he made a boneheaded play in the 6th inning to allow a run to score. And then Rosales failed to scoop a ball out of the dirt which allowed a run to score. Joey Votto and EdE can't get back soon enough.

WVRedsFan
06-11-2009, 08:13 PM
It's going to take more than Votto and Edwin to give this offense a shot in the arm. Hairston, Gonzalez, Traveras, and Rosales are fodder. The Reds are doing their usual thing--base all hopes on players who never were in hopes that they will magically turn into All-Stars. Not going to happen.

BTW, I doubt we'll see Edwin again until at least early August and who knows with Votto? Waiting for those two to lead us out of bondage is simply crazy. We've averaged a little over 4 runs a game this year and that's not going to get it.

OnBaseMachine
06-11-2009, 08:20 PM
I just saw the Hairston gaffe on the MLB.com highlights. Wow. Ramon Hernandez couldn't believe Hairston didn't come home with the throw. I'm not sure what he was thinking. Hairston's defense at third base makes me miss EdE.

I still can't get over the Reds scoring nine runs (two in extra innings) in three games against the Washington Nationals pitching staff.

If you go back to last Friday vs the Cubs, the Reds have lost games by the score of 2-1, 6-3 (14 innings, Reds blew so many easy scoring chances), and 3-2. That's three games the Reds should have won, at the very least you need to win two of those three. That's the difference in 33-26 and 31-28. Or first place and third place.

Ron Madden
06-12-2009, 03:54 AM
Sorry about that Boss. It wont happen again. :redface:

OnBaseMachine
06-12-2009, 10:31 PM
Reds lose 4-1. Another well pitched game goes to waste. Matt Maloney and Mike Lincoln allowed four runs - two of which were gifts from a bad throw by Ramon Hernandez.

I saw something tonight that I've never seen before. The Reds hitters went down 1-2-3 in the first inning on just four pitches. Four pitches. I had never seen that before. And then I saw it again. In the 9th inning, the same hitters (Taveras/Gonzalez/Phillips) went down 1-2-3 again on only four pitches. Crazyness. Luck Hochevar (7.85 ERA) threw a complete game on only 80 pitches. Wow.

I have to agree with what someone said in the game thread. I'm afraid this is the start of a tailspin by the Reds. They've now played horribly in four straight games against two of the worst teams in all of baseball. The pitching staff can only carry this team so long. You can't keep expecting the pitching staff to allow 2-3 runs every single night.

HokieRed
06-12-2009, 10:40 PM
Team needs major overhaul. I look forward to a fire sale, except most of what we have won't find any takers. I'd thought we had the nucleus of a contender in 2010, am starting to doubt that. Need change at a minimum at 3b, SS, LF, CF, C, perhaps RF. First thing to do is to get Heisey and Frazier to AAA ASAP. Either Harang or Arroyo will have to go, unless we decide to make a really high end trade involving Volquez (Cueto's the only one I'd consider untouchable, Volquez is the only one good enough to bring a real answer at SS). Either Bailey or Maloney will probably also have to be dealt to help with one of other holes.

traderumor
06-12-2009, 11:12 PM
Team needs major overhaul. I look forward to a fire sale, except most of what we have won't find any takers. I'd thought we had the nucleus of a contender in 2010, am starting to doubt that. Need change at a minimum at 3b, SS, LF, CF, C, perhaps RF. First thing to do is to get Heisey and Frazier to AAA ASAP. Either Harang or Arroyo will have to go, unless we decide to make a really high end trade involving Volquez (Cueto's the only one I'd consider untouchable, Volquez is the only one good enough to bring a real answer at SS). Either Bailey or Maloney will probably also have to be dealt to help with one of other holes.:eek:

Will M
06-12-2009, 11:26 PM
Team needs major overhaul. I look forward to a fire sale, except most of what we have won't find any takers. I'd thought we had the nucleus of a contender in 2010, am starting to doubt that. Need change at a minimum at 3b, SS, LF, CF, C, perhaps RF. First thing to do is to get Heisey and Frazier to AAA ASAP. Either Harang or Arroyo will have to go, unless we decide to make a really high end trade involving Volquez (Cueto's the only one I'd consider untouchable, Volquez is the only one good enough to bring a real answer at SS). Either Bailey or Maloney will probably also have to be dealt to help with one of other holes.

if the Reds are going to be buyers they need to start ASAP. the current team will only stay close if the Cards, Cubs & Brewers all stink.

if the plan is to be sellers & continue the longer term build from within plan then i am ok with that too.

HokieRed
06-12-2009, 11:29 PM
Hate to say it, but I think we're going to have to be sellers.

HeatherC1212
06-12-2009, 11:31 PM
Reds lose 4-1. Another well pitched game goes to waste. Matt Maloney and Mike Lincoln allowed four runs - two of which were gifts from a bad throw by Ramon Hernandez.

Not that it matters too much but IIRC, Mike Lincoln didn't allow any runs. :confused: All the runs were given up by Maloney during his six innings of work. I know Lincoln hasn't been that great this year but let's give him a little credit when he actually pitches well, LOL :laugh:

I miss Joey. *sigh* :(

KoryMac5
06-13-2009, 12:20 AM
Hate to say it, but I think we're going to have to be sellers.

They could be both, Walt has his work cut out for him.

WVRedsFan
06-13-2009, 01:24 AM
Interesting. Would we be sellers unless we made signing Hairston a priority in the off season? How about deciding to keep Homer as a "special" piece of the future and decide Jermaine Dye just wasn't for the Reds? Or deciding Willy T was the answer at center field? Or that Jay Bruce was ready to face the rigors of a full MLB season?

Many questions. The answers may fall in the decisions to make McDonald your opening day outfielder, the starting of the season without a backup first baseman, or the belief that Gomes had less worth than Mickey D and Nix.

OnBaseMachine
06-13-2009, 01:33 AM
In June, only twice has the Reds pitching staff allowed more than four runs in a game. One was the game where the Cubs scored three in the 14th inning after the Reds offense failed many times. Despite the great pitching, the Reds are only 5-6 in June. With a better offense, the Reds could be 8-3 or 9-2 this month and be in first place.

WVRedsFan
06-13-2009, 01:42 AM
In June, only twice has the Reds pitching staff allowed more than four runs in a game. One was the game where the Cubs scored three in the 14th inning after the Reds offense failed many times. Despite the great pitching, the Reds are only 5-6 in June. With a better offense, the Reds could be 8-3 or 9-2 this month and be in first place.

Your're wating your breath, OBM. You know that and I know that, but the multitudes seem to think that all is fine and only a return of Edwin and Joey will make things right, from the FO to the fanbase. Not going to happen.

corkedbat
06-13-2009, 02:23 AM
This organization has potential, but, IMO, the next 8 or 9 months (between now and 2010 ST) are very critical. I don't think this team should necessarily be "buyers" or "sellers". I think Walt & Co. need to add pieces to improve the squad, but not at the cost of the future. I don't want to add anyone who is not in the plans for at least the next two years and I don't want to spend one decent prospect on 3-month rentals no matter how good they are.

I think Jocketty needs to make some very tough decisions in the very near future. The first is what veterans are going to be here, which are going to be dealt and what kind of value do they have? I think now is the tie that decisions need to be made. I believe Harang, Arroyo, Cordero, Weathers, Phillips and even EdE (once he proves he's sound again) need to be agressively shopped

That doesn't mean that I want them all dealt or I want them dealt in the next ten days or I want to just give them away by any menas (I want solid returns) - I just believe that despite probably more first-half success than was to be expected from this squad, the focus should still be on building for the next three years.

Then, I think we need to decide what prospects are the centerpieces and who will be dealt to fill holes. I feel like here are at least one and maybe two of the top young corner players that can be dealt to help fill holes. I also think there are a couple of minor league relievers and second-tier starters that might draw interest from the right team in a deal with one of the verterans above.

I think Walt has to think outside the box two and use one deal to setup the next. Bruce has always been untouchable in my mind and I have in no way given up on him, but if I thought I could land another young RFer who with a solid bat in a deal for, say, one of the verteran starters and another team offered a young starter I coveted for Bruce, I'd be tempted (especially if I was comtemplating a future wuth Alonzo at 1B and Joey in LF).

I said it in another thread last night, I believe that before next season starts, I expect Walt to pull off a huge, signature trade (or series of deals) that really stamp his mark on the franchise. something tells me that deal will be sooner rather than later (like in thenext month).

One thing I want above all others though is the removal of WillyT from this squad., If someone really wants one of our guys badly enough, maybe Jocketty can force them to take him. I'd be willing to pay half 9or even 2/3s) of his remaining contract to be shed of him. If that's not possible (which I suspect) then DFA him like the sunken cost he was the day he was signed.

I just don't want to see him taking any ABs from guys like Dickerson, Stubbs or even Heisey. I'd rather see guys like Hairston, Nix or even Darnell McDonald used on reserve if need be than Taveras.

traderumor
06-13-2009, 09:10 AM
Hate to say it, but I think we're going to have to be sellers.If it means selling according to what you stated above, no thanks. Why would anyone look forward to a fire sale? Need a RFer, eh? Volquez for a SS. I am certainly glad that the front office does not push the panic button like so many fans do when their team is in the midst of a horrible slump.

traderumor
06-13-2009, 09:13 AM
I don't want to add anyone who is not in the plans for at least the next two years and I don't want to spend one decent prospect on 3-month rentals no matter how good they are.
So, you don't think a package similar to Owings, Buck and Castillo would be worth it for a hitter of Dunn's caliber for "rental" if it meant improving the team to the point of serious contention during the stretch run?

Benihana
06-13-2009, 09:34 AM
So, you don't think a package similar to Owings, Buck and Castillo would be worth it for a hitter of Dunn's caliber for "rental" if it meant improving the team to the point of serious contention during the stretch run?

I would, but you'd have to wait until August to get a (rental) player of that caliber for that kind of return- and that's assuming that a player like that is still available at that time and hasn't been snatched up by another contender at the deadline. I fear the Reds may fall out of contention before then if improvements aren't brought in sooner.

If the Reds are going to go for it, they have to make a deal for a player like Holliday or Rios in the next month, otherwise it will probably be too late. And the package will probably have to be significantly better than the Dunn package for a deal to happen.

traderumor
06-13-2009, 10:20 AM
I would, but you'd have to wait until August to get a (rental) player of that caliber for that kind of return- and that's assuming that a player like that is still available at that time and hasn't been snatched up by another contender at the deadline. I fear the Reds may fall out of contention before then if improvements aren't brought in sooner.

If the Reds are going to go for it, they have to make a deal for a player like Holliday or Rios in the next month, otherwise it will probably be too late. And the package will probably have to be significantly better than the Dunn package for a deal to happen.I would say you might have to wait until August. The market can do funny things. The point I was really making is that I don't think that rentals have to cost top prospects and they make sense when you project having a legitimate shot, but clearly need a significant boost in some area for the final push. I think the Reds have enough depth in the minors to avoid having to give up top prospects to get a significant "rental" player. BTW, teams keep on acquiring rentals because it helps, often creating momentum and buying time for young players that will soon make that rental unnecessary. I think the Reds will be a clear candidate to rent a star this year.

Of course, there is also the factor of looking through the lens of an offensive slump that colors opinions to "we'll be out of it if we don't do something soon."

corkedbat
06-13-2009, 01:19 PM
So, you don't think a package similar to Owings, Buck and Castillo would be worth it for a hitter of Dunn's caliber for "rental" if it meant improving the team to the point of serious contention during the stretch run?


I don't think Oakland's gonna offer up Holiday before the trade deadline for a return like that. I'm not saying don't do anything, but I'd be very leery about giving up talent with value for a rental. I don't think our chances this year warrant a rental. I'm all for improving, I just want returns that also hekp us going forward - not just the last few months of this year.

I'm not expecting like what I posted in my last post. there is too much pressure and the backlash would betoo great to deal verterans with us preceived to be in the "thick of a pennant chase. I think that this club has harmeditself in the past by holding on to vets at least one season too long instead of leveragin them near their peak.

I'm not saying we shouldj ust give away, say, Harang or Arroyo for a couple of middling prospects. I am saying though that pitching is gloing to be at a real premium as July approaches. I'd be shopping them agressively to ee if soneone is willing to overpay in the thick of a playoff race.

Like I said, I don't expect to see it happen. It's easy for me to make a proposal like that> I don't have to face the wrath of the press of thousands of fans saying I punted while in contention.

I just think that there is an opportunity to build something sustainableover then next 3-to-5 years, but there are still needs. I believe that the next few months are crucial to that future though and the decisions made between now and next Spring Training can make the difference between a ture contender for several years or more of what we've seen - a squad that shows some promise and gets our hopes up, but never quite gets "there".

Kc61
06-13-2009, 02:24 PM
It's really all been very clear for awhile now. Arroyo and Harang are in the third year of four year deals. There may be fifth year options too.

Bailey finally seems near ready. Cueto, Volquez when healthy are excellent. Maloney and Owings seem like pretty good back of the rotation guys. And the Reds have Wood, Smith, and Stewart pitching well at AA.

The obvious move is to trade Arroyo, Harang, or both for offensive talent. By trading them Reds shed payroll and leave room to pay offensive guys. And given the economics, I don't see the Reds going for high priced rentals. I see them trading Arroyo or Harang or both for hitters they can control for a few years.

It's just so obvious that I fully expect one of Arroyo or Harang to be gone by 7/31. Wouldn't be shocked if they both are gone by next spring.

Reds are so short offensively that something like this has to happen.

mth123
06-13-2009, 05:05 PM
It's really all been very clear for awhile now. Arroyo and Harang are in the third year of four year deals. There may be fifth year options too.

Bailey finally seems near ready. Cueto, Volquez when healthy are excellent. Maloney and Owings seem like pretty good back of the rotation guys. And the Reds have Wood, Smith, and Stewart pitching well at AA.

The obvious move is to trade Arroyo, Harang, or both for offensive talent. By trading them Reds shed payroll and leave room to pay offensive guys. And given the economics, I don't see the Reds going for high priced rentals. I see them trading Arroyo or Harang or both for hitters they can control for a few years.

It's just so obvious that I fully expect one of Arroyo or Harang to be gone by 7/31. Wouldn't be shocked if they both are gone by next spring.

Reds are so short offensively that something like this has to happen.

Well its possible I guess. I just don't see the Reds dealing Harang or Arroyo if they are trying to win in 2009. Right now they are 2.5 back in the division and 1 back in the wild card. That screams of dealing minor league depth for a bat or two. I agree that dollars may be an issue, but I wonder if the Reds may try to deal guys like Lincoln and Taveras for low level prospects to free up some money. Its possible they may deal EdE for the same reason. I do think that Arroyo will be shopped heavily in the off-season, but I don't think the team deals its pen saving innings guys in a pennant race. I'm guessing that the reds will make several guys avalable at depth areas: one from Roenicke and Manuel, one from Stubbs and Heisey, one of Maloney, Bailey or Owings, one of Sutton, Valaika or Frazier, one of Soto or Francisco and maybe throw ins like one of Watson or Ondrusek or one of Dorn, Henry, Richar or Cumberland. They'll still have depth and prospects at those spots but should be able to fashion a pretty good package w/o touching any of the AA starters or Alonso.

OnBaseMachine
06-13-2009, 10:18 PM
Well, at least the Reds changed it up a little tonight. Instead of great pitching and no offense, they had bad pitching and bad offense. That's now three straight losses against two of the worst teams in all of baseball. It looks like the Reds are heading into a tailspin. Hopefully Cueto can be the stopper tomorrow and right the ship.

HokieRed
06-13-2009, 10:40 PM
What's anybody think the realistic return for Arroyo would be? I think you'd get nothing at all, the salary relief would be considered easily an adequate return.

Benihana
06-13-2009, 11:29 PM
Bronson Arroyo, Chris Heisey and Josh Roenicke for Alex Rios. :thumbup:

OnBaseMachine
06-14-2009, 01:12 AM
Three batters into the game and I could already tell it was going to be a bad night for Bronson Arroyo. The ump wasn't giving Arroyo the fastball on the inside corner or the curveball on the outside corner. I looked at dad in the first inning and told him it was going to be a looong night for Arroyo if the umpire continued to call those pitches balls. A pitcher with better stuff can get away with a very tight strikezone but a guy like Arroyo can't.

fearofpopvol1
06-14-2009, 01:17 AM
What's anybody think the realistic return for Arroyo would be? I think you'd get nothing at all, the salary relief would be considered easily an adequate return.

Well, right now...it would be awful. You gotta let him continue to pitch and pitch more to norms (which I am confident he'll do). He pitched better than the numbers show tonight. As stated, the umps were bad tonight. It happens sometimes.

fearofpopvol1
06-14-2009, 01:19 AM
Well, at least the Reds changed it up a little tonight. Instead of great pitching and no offense, they had bad pitching and bad offense. That's now three straight losses against two of the worst teams in all of baseball. It looks like the Reds are heading into a tailspin. Hopefully Cueto can be the stopper tomorrow and right the ship.

We should all be thanking our lucky stars that the Cubs, Brewers and Cards all have pretty much stunk as of late too. Yes, it sucks that we could be leading the division now or be near the top...but at least we haven't lost much ground.

We need to pray that Votto comes back soon, EdE comes bcak soon and Volquez gets back and pitches well. Those are very important at this point.

redsfandan
06-14-2009, 01:53 AM
It's really all been very clear for awhile now. Arroyo and Harang are in the third year of four year deals. There may be fifth year options too.

Bailey finally seems near ready. Cueto, Volquez when healthy are excellent. Maloney and Owings seem like pretty good back of the rotation guys. And the Reds have Wood, Smith, and Stewart pitching well at AA.

The obvious move is to trade Arroyo, Harang, or both for offensive talent. By trading them Reds shed payroll and leave room to pay offensive guys. And given the economics, I don't see the Reds going for high priced rentals. I see them trading Arroyo or Harang or both for hitters they can control for a few years.

It's just so obvious that I fully expect one of Arroyo or Harang to be gone by 7/31. Wouldn't be shocked if they both are gone by next spring.

Reds are so short offensively that something like this has to happen.
Nice post and good points. Harang has a $12.75m option for 2011, Arroyo has a $12m option for '11, both have $2m buyouts. I'd be surprised if at least one of them wasn't dealt at some point this year or next year for prospects. That's what I'd do. Make room for the prospects (including Bailey), add some prospects, shed payroll to use for Volquez and the others later and all at once.

Boss-Hog
06-14-2009, 09:27 AM
All,

I've decided to close this thread (along with the "Miscellaneous Updates" thread) because a large amount of the posts are generating discussion that should be documented in other threads. That's absolutely a good thing and I'd like it to continue but most of the game-related thoughts should be posted in game thread and if warrants starting a new thread, feel free to do so. However, I don't think having two threads to discuss just about any topic is such a good idea; I'd prefer individual threads be started for the topics.

If you have any questions, please send me a PM.