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View Full Version : Do we really want to move Votto?



dunner13
05-06-2009, 09:36 AM
So far, and i know its early, votto is hitting .378/.470/.571 Pretty awesome numbers. He is playing a solid 1B and is this teams leader and quickest rising star. The thought has always been move votto to LF and put Alonso at 1B, but with Votto breaking out im starting to think that would be a bad move. To me I keep votto at first knowing that I have an All Star Caliber player comfortable at his position for along time. Then I hope Alonso tears up the minors and trade him this july for a left fielder. I know the other argument is votto goes to LF keeps hitting well, Alonso comes up and hits well and we have two good young hitters. But Alonso has done nothing in the majors yet, Im not sure I want to move our best player for a guy who may or may not make it. Just some thoughts what do you guys think?

lidspinner
05-06-2009, 09:46 AM
ig JV continues down this path he will not move. Votto is going down a path very few Reds players have went down. He is not just on a hot streak, he is hitting the snot out of the ball, even his outs are hit hard. I remember thinkning the same think about Hal Morris one year so I am not ready to annoint JV the savior but he is close. When you do what he is doing, you dont move him from 1st base and not even Dusty Baker could mess that up.
Now is JV goes up and asks for a move to LF then MAYBE I could see it happening. Guys, we are watching a budding superstar that gives 10000% EVERY play. When is the last time we had a superstar that gave that kind of hustle? answer would be Pete Rose. The guy might be on his way to locking down 1st base for a long time.

Bumstead
05-06-2009, 10:58 AM
Honestly, Alonso is in A-ball and this subject is premature. I think Alonso is going to be really good and he can only play 1B. However, who knows what's going to happen. As far as trading him in July, I believe that draft picks from last year cannot be traded this year. Of course, down the road if both players are going to make the Reds better, it would be pretty selfish of Votto not to move to LF to help improve the team. I really like Votto and hope he can continue to hit like he did at the end of last and has so far this year.

Let's wait and see how it turns out; it should be fun watching both of them continue to improve.

Bum

Griffey012
05-06-2009, 11:04 AM
No, if push comes to shove and Alonso tears it up in the minors, trade Alonso for another big talent with a team who has say a stud LF in the minors but has a hole at 1st base.

schmidty622
05-06-2009, 11:07 AM
If Votto keeps hitting and playing defense the way he has, then I don't see how you can justify a move of position. It's Votto's spot to lose and I don't see that happening.

Bumstead
05-06-2009, 11:26 AM
Even though this question is premature, I will ask anyway: So based on these responses, even if the Reds would be a better baseball team and have a better chance of winning, Votto should not be asked to move to LF? That is what you are saying, right?

Bum

Ghosts of 1990
05-06-2009, 11:33 AM
It will get interesting if things continue on. I can't pretend to begin to guess what will happen, but its a very interesting discussion.

This is if Votto continues to hit like a legit MLB stud and Alonso continues to progress as a power hitting youngster.

I guess I could see us trading Alonso for MLB help at another spot like LF

Bumstead
05-06-2009, 11:39 AM
I don't understand why you would trade Alonso if they both fit on the team and make the team better. It will be interesting. Is this how everyone felt when the Reds needed Dunn to play 1B?

Still too early to tell, but I can't believe that people think Votto can't be moved to LF if it makes the team better.

Ghosts of 1990
05-06-2009, 11:47 AM
I don't understand why you would trade Alonso if they both fit on the team and make the team better. It will be interesting. Is this how everyone felt when the Reds needed Dunn to play 1B?

Still too early to tell, but I can't believe that people think Votto can't be moved to LF if it makes the team better.

I like the way Votto is playing but I don't think he should be untouchable at 1B. He should be able to be moved to LF if needed if Alonso can't play anything else. I was just stating what I think will happen.

RedLakerFan24
05-06-2009, 12:39 PM
why are our best hitters Left Handed? we need some pop from the right side

ian_madden
05-06-2009, 01:32 PM
I believe that 1st is Votto's till he cools down. I don't think that Alonso is MLB ready for a few years. I say when that comes, we do what is best for the team. What if we win the central a couple of times without Alonso? Do we shake up the chemistry of a good team for a young guy that is unproven? What if Votto becomes the starting 1st baseman on the all star team over that guy from St. Louis, (we don't speak of his name in my circle of friends)? These are variables we have to factor.

Griffey012
05-06-2009, 01:36 PM
Even though this question is premature, I will ask anyway: So based on these responses, even if the Reds would be a better baseball team and have a better chance of winning, Votto should not be asked to move to LF? That is what you are saying, right?

Bum

If that move doesn't hamper our overall defense too much then that is fine, as long as it makes the team better. But Votto has been playing great defense at first and seems to only get better, that's why swapping out Alonso for a stud LF prospect in the same power type mold who plays solid D would be fine with me. It would be rare that a team had a LF'er like that and needed a first baseman but it is a possibility.

NeilHamburger
05-06-2009, 02:12 PM
Chipper Jones moved, Pujols has moved, Alex Rodriguez moved. I don't see what the big deal about at least asking him to move would be. Votto probably wouldn't like it at first, but I feel he would do it. I think he would be a decent left fielder for whatever that's worth. He has decent speed, would work hard at it, and seems to have good baseball instincts.

lidspinner
05-06-2009, 02:20 PM
Why are we not talking about Alonso moving? The guy is young, 2 years away...thats 2 full years to work on his OF skills....Are we even sure Joey V can play a good LF? He might wear down a little more if he were to run the OF every night. I am just saying that if the guy is going to play the way he has both offense and defense then you do not ask him to move. Seriously, is Yonder that bad of a defender that he is 100% limited to 1st base only? and if he is why did we drop all that money and a 1st pick on him? If JV is for it and it dont affect his pay then I dont see an issue with it, I just would hate to see us "assume" JV is the automatic move when Yonder is the young guy with time to learn.

Bumstead
05-06-2009, 02:42 PM
OK, let's say Alonso is ready to come up and it is agreed that having both him and Votto in the lineup makes the Reds better. How could moving Votto to LF affect his pay?? And, if he's not for it, why do we care? Isn't that part of the problem people had with Dunn? If my employer decides that for the good of the company I need to move to a different location or position are they really going to care if I don't want to? Anyway, this is an issue for next spring at the earliest and maybe not at all, but eventually I believe Alonso will be ready to help the Reds and Votto will move to LF. That's my opinion. We dropped 'all that money' on him because he is a great hitter and was in the Reds opinion the best player available.

Alonso is too slow to play OF or anywhere else. Votto played OF affectively when he first came up with the Reds.

Bum

Ghosts of 1990
05-06-2009, 02:48 PM
Chipper Jones moved, Pujols has moved, Alex Rodriguez moved. I don't see what the big deal about at least asking him to move would be. Votto probably wouldn't like it at first, but I feel he would do it. I think he would be a decent left fielder for whatever that's worth. He has decent speed, would work hard at it, and seems to have good baseball instincts.

EXCELLENT points. Not an easy call

dunner13
05-06-2009, 02:54 PM
Heres the thing if a year from now Votto is to the reds what pujols is to the cardinals, not saying his stats are the same but hes by far our best player and leader. Do you really want to make him move positions for a prospect? I mean I dont think the cards are asking pujols to head out to LF for one of their prospects anytime soon.

Bumstead
05-06-2009, 04:10 PM
Heres the thing if a year from now Votto is to the reds what pujols is to the cardinals, not saying his stats are the same but hes by far our best player and leader. Do you really want to make him move positions for a prospect? I mean I dont think the cards are asking pujols to head out to LF for one of their prospects anytime soon.

I think there is only one way to answer such a question...Votto isn't Pujols and never will be Pujols (one of the top 2-3 players in all of baseball). To further that: Pujols has already played various positions and changed positions for the betterment of his team; will he move again? Not likely, but he never complained about it before. Pujols has a been a model team player his whole career and I hope Votto is as well; and as of right now, I have no reason to think that he won't be.

Bum

BurgervilleBuck
05-06-2009, 04:28 PM
I'd give my opinion if I could only get this dern cart in front of my pony.

Kingspoint
05-06-2009, 04:59 PM
Do we really want to move Votto?


Absolutely.

It's not a question of if, it's a question of when.

I don't care if Votto gets the MVP this season. He still needs to go to Left Field because Alonso is every bit as good as Votto as a hitter, and Alonso can only play 1st Base, and he's way too good of a player to trade away. You trade for guys like Alonso, not trade them away.

This isn't even debatable.

Joey Votto must play Left Field if he is to remain a Cincinnati Red.

Eric_the_Red
05-06-2009, 05:07 PM
It's not a question of if, it's a question of when.


Can we set the "when" to once Alonzo shows he can hit single A pitching with an average over .280, or when he shows he can hit AAA pitching? Perhaps let's get crazy and make him face ML pitchers in a few regular season games?

2 words: Steve Chilcott.

Kingspoint
05-06-2009, 05:10 PM
Do you really want to make him move positions for a prospect?

Alonso's not a prospect.

He's the best 1st Baseman the REDS will have since (not counting Votto) Tony Perez, and he's a heck of a lot better hitter than Perez, but only a shadow of the defense that Perez displayed.

Alonso will be the REDS best hitter that plays 1st Base over the last 50 years.

He's not a "prospect". This isn't some 18-year old kid, that you don't know what you have. He's an All-American RBI-machine, that has a sweet swing, a great eye for the baseball, the patience of Job, and the leadership abilities of Lincoln.

Kingspoint
05-06-2009, 05:12 PM
Can we set the "when" to once Alonzo shows he can hit single A pitching with an average over .280, or when he shows he can hit AAA pitching? Perhaps let's get crazy and make him face ML pitchers in a few regular season games?

2 words: Steve Chilcott.

Please read the two current minor league posts about Alonso, so you won't bring up something as ridiculous as batting average again when it comes to Alonso and what he's doing right now. Better yet, watch him play a game before announcing that he's failing at Single A baseball.

NeilHamburger
05-06-2009, 06:31 PM
Heres the thing if a year from now Votto is to the reds what pujols is to the cardinals, not saying his stats are the same but hes by far our best player and leader. Do you really want to make him move positions for a prospect? I mean I dont think the cards are asking pujols to head out to LF for one of their prospects anytime soon.

The Braves asked Chipper to move to left from third for Vinny Castilla.

gedred69
05-06-2009, 08:59 PM
The Hit King played wherever he was asked, it was all about winning. I think Votto has the same mentality. Question is, would he be any good in LF?

PS. Alonso isn't exactly tearing it up in what is essentially his 1st year in pro ball, at High A no less. (Should he be at Dayton)? Power stats, yeah, but Reds don't need another Dunn. 5th best BA on a lousy hitting team? He is probably at least 2 years off, ------unless the light comes on soon.

Kingspoint
05-06-2009, 09:16 PM
The Hit King played wherever he was asked, it was all about winning. I think Votto has the same mentality. Question is, would he be any good in LF?

PS. Alonso isn't exactly tearing it up in what is essentially his 1st year in pro ball, at High A no less. (Should he be at Dayton)? Power stats, yeah, but Reds don't need another Dunn. 5th best BA on a lousy hitting team? He is probably at least 2 years off, ------unless the light comes on soon.

The light is on. He's doing great. Watch one of his games, please.

Eric_the_Red
05-06-2009, 10:14 PM
Please read the two current minor league posts about Alonso, so you won't bring up something as ridiculous as batting average again when it comes to Alonso and what he's doing right now. Better yet, watch him play a game before announcing that he's failing at Single A baseball.

I never said he's failing. And my bringing up BA is about as ridiculous as you comparing a single A player to Tony Perez.

Plenty of prospects have raked in the minors only to flame out in the show. I'm just saying I want Alonzo to prove it before I move the teams best hitter to another position. That isn't ridiculous, that is logic.

gedred69
05-06-2009, 10:21 PM
The light is on. He's doing great. Watch one of his games, please.

You can remind me when he's hitting .300 at AAA. We are talking about a guy taking the place of Votto at his accustomed position, (.370), multi multiple hit games, great with runners in SP, and the guy is in A? I hope and expect him to be great, just not yet.

TC81190
05-07-2009, 12:52 AM
Alonso has a .257 BABIP right now I believe I read and is hitting laser beams right at defenders and rockets to the warning track. He's hitting the ball with authority, he's just getting unlucky for the moment. He probably doesn't even need to change his approach to get the average to rise.

Slyder
05-07-2009, 02:26 AM
Alonso's not a prospect.

He's the best 1st Baseman the REDS will have since (not counting Votto) Tony Perez, and he's a heck of a lot better hitter than Perez, but only a shadow of the defense that Perez displayed.

Alonso will be the REDS best hitter that plays 1st Base over the last 50 years.

He's not a "prospect". This isn't some 18-year old kid, that you don't know what you have. He's an All-American RBI-machine, that has a sweet swing, a great eye for the baseball, the patience of Job, and the leadership abilities of Lincoln.


Brandon Larson ;).

Captain Hook
05-07-2009, 02:50 AM
All I know is that I have never even once seen Alonso swing a bat and I have never seen Joey Votto play anywhere other than 1st(has he ever?).

Its a fair argument that other stars around the league have been asked or told to move and have done so.Most if not all of the before mentioned stars moved because other proven star players were acquired that play the same position.These moves have for the most part been made during the off season.Its hard for me to say that Votto should be moved anytime this season for a guy that was playing college ball last year at this time and is now playing low level minor league baseball right now.

If Alonso tears it up for a season in the minors and proves he is big league ready.Then I have no problem with the team telling Joey to get ready to play the outfield next season.

lidspinner
05-07-2009, 09:02 AM
OK, let's say Alonso is ready to come up and it is agreed that having both him and Votto in the lineup makes the Reds better. How could moving Votto to LF affect his pay?? And, if he's not for it, why do we care? Isn't that part of the problem people had with Dunn? If my employer decides that for the good of the company I need to move to a different location or position are they really going to care if I don't want to? Anyway, this is an issue for next spring at the earliest and maybe not at all, but eventually I believe Alonso will be ready to help the Reds and Votto will move to LF. That's my opinion. We dropped 'all that money' on him because he is a great hitter and was in the Reds opinion the best player available.

Alonso is too slow to play OF or anywhere else. Votto played OF affectively when he first came up with the Reds.

Bum



hmmmm, not sure there...:)....I think I meant to type "play"....not affect his "play". my bad.

lidspinner
05-07-2009, 09:13 AM
let me also add to this....it is common practice to "compare" minor leagueres to major leaguers...everyoen wants to say.."oh, he reminds me of Tony perez"..or "he can hit like Joey Vott"....the thing we all fail to realize is that the odds are so far NOT on our side its not funny...The chance of Alonso actually making this club and out-hitting Joey Votto are very slim. I understand he is a great hitter and he is hitting laser beams for outs, but I also could write a small series of novels about all the prospects that tore up the minors, only to fizzle out in the bigs. Yonder is a great prospect, but he still a prospect, and in my opinion, not our best prospect at this time. His ceiling might be the highest, but I still remember my ceiling was high when I was a freshman in high school playing SS on the varsity team......then I quit growing, starting drinking, having attitude problems, realized naked women were more addictive than drugs....point is a ceiling means nothing to me.....Hell, Joey Votto might be a .350 lifetime hitter and comming to the end of his contract by the time Yonder gets here and we wont be able to afford Joey. But thats another argument.

Bumstead
05-07-2009, 10:49 AM
Well, I'm not quite as sure as Kingspoint about how good Alonso 'will' be. I certainly think he has the potential to be that good and I believe he will be the Reds starting first baseman by the start of next season or 2011 at the very latest. Eric The Red is right that the cart is before the horse; my only defense is: I didn't ask the question, I just shared my opinion. I believe that I am correct and Votto will move to LF, but there are a lot of factors that could change that outcome.

Enjoy the ride! :beerme:

Bum

Kingspoint
05-07-2009, 07:05 PM
I never said he's failing. And my bringing up BA is about as ridiculous as you comparing a single A player to Tony Perez.




R U kidding me? I can spot a special player a mile away before he ever steps foot on a major league field. I'm sorry that you can't.

Many people can. Many people can't. It's just a matter of which side of the coin you are on. But, if you can't, don't say to those of us who can that it's not possible, as we've been right about certain players like Alonso for ions. I said the same thing about Gordon Bekham when I saw him for a 3-game series last year. I wanted us to draft Bekham, but I correctly predicted that we'd draft Alonso because he's the type of player (the most power that is available) that Walt Jockety likes to take with a pick that high.

Eric_the_Red
05-07-2009, 07:40 PM
R U kidding me? I can spot a special player a mile away before he ever steps foot on a major league field. I'm sorry that you can't.


And you're humble too. So, what ML team are you a scout for?

Kingspoint
05-07-2009, 08:21 PM
And you're humble too. So, what ML team are you a scout for?


You don't have to be a scout to be able to identify a "unique" baseball player's ability when he's 22 years of age. And you don't have to be a wallflower to give your opinion about something. It's OK to be confident about you knowledge on something that's as easy as 2 + 2 = 4.

Eric_the_Red
05-07-2009, 08:29 PM
You don't have to be a scout to be able to identify a "unique" baseball player's ability when he's 22 years of age. And you don't have to be a wallflower to give your opinion about something. It's OK to be confident about you knowledge on something that's as easy as 2 + 2 = 4.

So how would you have rated Brandon Larson? Chris Gruler? Brien Taylor? Plenty of people that get paid to scout have been wrong on "sure things". Can you deny that?

So until he shows long-term success (more than 1 full season) in the minors, I'm not even entertaining the discussion of moving Votto.

What's next- we talk about who we are going to trade Alonso for in 2019 for that great junior high prospect?

Horse, cart. Not cart, horse.

mlh1981
05-07-2009, 08:43 PM
What if Chris Dickerson steps it up? Then what? What do you do when the kid is ready to come up? Got a logjam, then.

Kingspoint
05-07-2009, 09:11 PM
So how would you have rated Brandon Larson? Chris Gruler? Brien Taylor? Plenty of people that get paid to scout have been wrong on "sure things". Can you deny that?

So until he shows long-term success (more than 1 full season) in the minors, I'm not even entertaining the discussion of moving Votto.

What's next- we talk about who we are going to trade Alonso for in 2019 for that great junior high prospect?

Horse, cart. Not cart, horse.

I wouldn't have rated any of those becaue I haven't seen any of those guys play live. I have no opinion about them.

Where Alonso played was the minors. Sarasota doesn't have better players than the University of Miami. And the competition that he played against at Miami is every bit as good as what he's seeing at Sarasota. He's already been at this level. It's a repeat of what he's done the last two seasons. What's different is the coaching. He now is working with better coaches and he has a team that's made a significant investment in him to where he's going to get the one-on-one defensive coaching that he needs, plus improved coaching on his hitting and base-running. Not that there's anything wrong with Miami's coaches. It's just different coaching.


Here's the REDS' problem. When Walt Jockety decided to draft him, he already knew that Votto was going to be a RED for a while. Votto, as they had seen him for a long time, showed signs that he would be a very good Major Leaguer. But, I'm guessing here, that their projection for him was maybe a one-time or two-time All-Star....this was back at the end of May when they had their draft analysis completed before the draft was to happen the first week of June.

They also had the 23-year old Logan Parker, another Left-handed hitting 1st Baseman. Parker had just gone through two very respectable seasons at Billings (.949 OPS) and Dayton (.751 OPS). Votto had a .900 OPS through May of last year after about 300 PA's in the Majors. But, Votto is 3 years older than Alonso, so they figured they'd just fill the pipeline.

But, this Winter they ended up with a new problem. Daniel Dorn, same age as Parker, came on like a house-on-fire last year with a .906 OPS at Chattanooga. Parker improved last year with splits at Dayton (.839 OPS) and Sarasota (.857 OPS). Dorn had to be given the AAA job, and they had to decide what to do with Alonso. Does he go right to AA leaving Parker to repeat himself at Sarasota? If they did that and Alonso tore up AA, how could they justify moving him to AAA in 2009 with Dorn deserving of those at-bats. They could do it if they moved Dorn to an Outfield spot as he's done some of in the past.

But, it seems like the best decision for the organization is to let Dorn try to blossom at AAA for the whole season, let Parker see what he can do at AA, and let Alonso work with the Coaches at High-A Sarasota, where he can get comfortable with hitting there, work on his defense, his base-running, and see if there's any possibility whatsoever if he can play another position other than 1st Base, though I already know as well as they do that it's not likely, unless you don't mind having someone much worse than Canseco playing Outfield for you.

The REDS have bought some time from their decision to have to make a trade of one of their prospects. These things always have a way of working themselves out. An injury here or there seems to always change things.

Now, Alonso has to force a move by having some ungodly-like OPS of 1.200+ or something like that. Parker's struggling a bit at Carolina right now with and OPS of .776. Dorn is really struggling at Louisville with an OPS of .582.

For now, nothing has to be done. You don't want to move guys up and down like yo-yo's. It destroys their careers. You don't want to move a guy down. You'd rather trade him. Parker and Dorn aren't putting up numbers worthy of a good trade at this time. Parker and Dorn are the type of players that can stay at a AA or AAA for 2 or 3 years. Alonso's not. He's on a fast-track, both because he has exceptional talent, but because his numbers are going to dictate it, and the coaches are going to tell the Director of Player Personnel and Walt Jockety that he needs to move up to another level.

I like how Jockety deals with the Minor Leagues. I liked better how Krivsky dealt with them, but I'm talking about one guy who's an A+ at it, and another who's a B+ or an A- at it. Jockety will do the right thing at the right time.

Patience is the key. While I've said from Day 1 after the draft last year, that Alonso would be playing 1st Base for the REDS for the next 8 years beginning September of 2009, I'll have to back off of that prediction just a little bit because of what Votto has done. It's Chris Dickerson, and now Lance Nix that may decide how soon this happens. I thought that Dickerson would buy 1-1/2 years, from the Adam Dunn trade until the end of 2009, as far as keeping Votto out of LF. Where I didn't think Votto would take over LF until Sep of 2009 or Apr of 2010, it's now possible that Votto could get some reps there this Summer in preparation for next April when Alonso would be ready to take over 1st Base.

And, that leaves Danny Dorn. The year he's having so far is making that decision an easy one. 2010 at Louisville again until he proves he can hit AAA pitching, too. Logan Parker can try then to see if he can supplant Danny Dorn, and it will be a battle between those two to see who might get to become a backup in the Majors, with Dorn having the edge by his ability to play LF and RF. Logan Parker is basically trade bait over the next 3 seasons, where the REDS will wait until he gets hot over a two-month period and try to make a deal at that time.

These are the problems one always dreams of having. No one ever would have thought that the REDS would have these problems 5 years ago.

Kingspoint
05-07-2009, 09:31 PM
Let me add, that Alonso is the type of player that could net you a Dan Haren from the Diamondbacks. Chad Tracy is probably the worst 1st Baseman in the NL. Haren has $44.75M in payments due over 2009-2012. He's 28 years old. Haren immediately becomes the ACE of the staff. It would probably take a pitcher, too, like Bailey, but to get Haren, it'd be worth it. Harang has $12.5 due next year, with a club option after that. Arroyo has $11M due next year with a club option after that. If we could get them to take either Harang or Arroyo instead of Bailey, that'd be great. If we got Haren, we could then trade Harang or Arroyo, or both.

Roush's socks
05-07-2009, 11:26 PM
The Reds have options right now, and that's good. If they can stay over .500 with the current lineup, maybe they'll have a chance to add a big bat before the trade deadline by moving Alonso with a pitcher.

Eric_the_Red
05-08-2009, 04:57 PM
Patience is the key. While I've said from Day 1 after the draft last year, that Alonso would be playing 1st Base for the REDS for the next 8 years beginning September of 2009, I'll have to back off of that prediction just a little bit because of what Votto has done. It's Chris Dickerson, and now Lance Nix that may decide how soon this happens. I thought that Dickerson would buy 1-1/2 years, from the Adam Dunn trade until the end of 2009, as far as keeping Votto out of LF. Where I didn't think Votto would take over LF until Sep of 2009 or Apr of 2010, it's now possible that Votto could get some reps there this Summer in preparation for next April when Alonso would be ready to take over 1st Base.



Let's hope your assessment of Alonso is more accurate than of Dickerson:


Because I saw it in him the day the "light turned on" with Dickerson.

He's a legitimate .750-.830 OPS guy with speed and defense for the REDS for the next two-three seasons. A legitimate 5-tool player for the next 2-3 years after he's already had 2/3rd's of a year of it.

;) But, I agree, Alonso is definitely more likely to succeed in the majors than Dickerson. Hopefully his production will match his potential.

WILD THING
05-08-2009, 06:35 PM
Votto is going to be a star for a long time, so I feel like he shouldn't have to worry about switching positions. I know that a player should do what's best for the team, but I'm not so sure its in the Reds' best interest to move him.

Kingspoint
05-08-2009, 06:53 PM
Let's hope your assessment of Alonso is more accurate than of Dickerson:



;) But, I agree, Alonso is definitely more likely to succeed in the majors than Dickerson. Hopefully his production will match his potential.

You'll have to find something else. I was right about Dickerson. At the end of this season, his OPS will be in that .750-.800 range.

lidspinner
05-08-2009, 08:36 PM
R U kidding me? I can spot a special player a mile away before he ever steps foot on a major league field. I'm sorry that you can't.

Many people can. Many people can't. It's just a matter of which side of the coin you are on. But, if you can't, don't say to those of us who can that it's not possible, as we've been right about certain players like Alonso for ions. I said the same thing about Gordon Bekham when I saw him for a 3-game series last year. I wanted us to draft Bekham, but I correctly predicted that we'd draft Alonso because he's the type of player (the most power that is available) that Walt Jockety likes to take with a pick that high.


I love your confidnece...but at the same time I have watched these things for 30+ years and NOONE is a shoe-in to get to the majors. I have seen sure things go south over women, I talk to alot of scouts and you would not believe some of the stories about why some of these minor leaguers end up failing. All I can say is WOW. I know there is 1 scout from a national league team that posts on here. He is the one who turned me on here, maybe I can get him to chime in on some stories.

Point is, a guy can hit 1.000 over the course of the year and his odds are still pretty bad at making the club.

Eric_the_Red
05-08-2009, 10:56 PM
You'll have to find something else. I was right about Dickerson. At the end of this season, his OPS will be in that .750-.800 range.

So Dickerson will be a "legitimate 5-tool player for the next 2-3 years"? Since when are riding the bench, doing wind sprints, shagging flies, being a late inning defensive replacement and being a decent spot start the five tools that teams want?

Roush's socks
05-09-2009, 02:02 AM
Keeping LF kind of open could turn out to be good if they can find the long sought after RH bat.

Kingspoint
05-09-2009, 04:48 PM
So Dickerson will be a "legitimate 5-tool player for the next 2-3 years"? Since when are riding the bench, doing wind sprints, shagging flies, being a late inning defensive replacement and being a decent spot start the five tools that teams want?

I first said this about Dickerson about two days before he was called up to the Majors last year. So, I already had all of last season that proved I was right. The "rest" of this season will just confirm it one more time.

Under your assessment, you may as well give Danny Dorn his walking papers and tell him to go get a job at McDonald's because he sucks as a baseball player because he's OPS'ing around .550 right now for the season.

And, yes. Dickerson was last year, and will again be this year, and will again be the year after that, a 5-tool player that will OPS .750-800 over that time period. I don't make these assessments very often, but when I do, I'm right a heck of a lot more times than any scout is right about a player. I pick and choose the players I say things like this about. Dickerson is one that I know about.

The thing about Dickerson, is I was one out of 5000 on this board, in other words, the only one.....an exceptional minority, that during the 1st Week of June said that a light had turned on for him and that he was no longer the player that his minor league statistics had shown that he was. I said that he found some power and to his swing, and that he was now a solid OPS player. I was spot on. He produced better at the Major League level that I said he would last year, and now he's producing less than I said he would, but as with all players, they go through UPS and DOWNS. Dickerson will adjust and swing back upwards and at the end of 2011, he will have OPS'd somewhere between 750-800 in the Majors. Those are high expectations for someone who, "on paper" hadn't shown he could do that.

Kingspoint
05-09-2009, 04:59 PM
I love your confidnece...but at the same time I have watched these things for 30+ years and NOONE is a shoe-in to get to the majors. I have seen sure things go south over women, I talk to alot of scouts and you would not believe some of the stories about why some of these minor leaguers end up failing. All I can say is WOW. I know there is 1 scout from a national league team that posts on here. He is the one who turned me on here, maybe I can get him to chime in on some stories.

Point is, a guy can hit 1.000 over the course of the year and his odds are still pretty bad at making the club.

I've known a dozen or more scouts during my lifetime, too. I find that they don't know anything more about baseball than I do. It's not rocket science. You know baseball or you don't. What I find common among them, is that none of them were outstanding baseball players beyond maybe the minor leagues.
And, I'm not talking about identifying someone who "might" make the major league club. I'm talking about All-Stars, in the case of Alonso. If you can't look at Alonso and see that his swing, etc. will correlate to that of an All-Star, then you should just stick to watching the game and clapping when runs are scored. He's as easy a talent to identify as Mark McGwire was coming out of College. There are no bumps on this road. Alonso will be playing for the REDS next season.