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membengal
05-06-2009, 01:19 PM
From Monday:

http://www.sportingnews.com/blog/MLB_Draft/entry/view/23807/sporting_news.coms_2009_mock_mlb_draft_first_round


1. Washington Nationals
Stephen Strasburg, San Diego State, RHP
Nationals already stated they will select uber-prospect No. 1 overall.

2. Seattle Mariners
Aaron Crow, Ft. Worth (Ind.) Cats, RHP
People forget he was one of the top 3 power arms in 2008 draft.

3. San Diego Padres
Grant Green, USC, SS
Athletic Green becomes the best hitting prospect in Padres system.

4. Pittsburgh Pirates
Alex White, North Carolina, RHP
Nasty slider and velocity that's suited to 'pen, White is safe, something
Pirates need.

5. Baltimore Orioles
Kyle Gibson, Missouri, RHP
Projectable frame, staff leader, Andy MacPhail believes in pitching,
pitching, pitching.

6. San Francisco Giants
Dustin Ackley, North Carolina, 1B/OF
Best college hitter, gap/line drive style suited well for AT&T Park
someday.

7. Atlanta Braves
Donavan Tate, Cartersville (Ga.) HS, OF
Hometown boy seems like a fit; NFL father Lars played at Georgia.

8. Cincinnati Reds
Matt Purke, Klein (Texas) HS, LHP
Could he be Homer Bailey all over again? Throws just as hard, signable.

9. Detroit Tigers
Jacob Turner, Westmininster Christ. (Mo.), RHP
Tigers have solid history of drafting Midwest players and paying
above slot.

10. Washington Nationals (for A. Crow)
Tyler Matzek, Capistrano Valley (Calif.) HS, LHP
GM Rizzo will continue to stockpile pitching in a draft lacking in bona
fide hitters.

Your milage may vary, but I thought you all might enjoy seeing someone else's early guess at the first round. The link has the complete first round mock.

Is it a pitching top-heavy year? 7 of the mock top 10 and 11 of the mock top 15 are pitchers...

OnBaseMachine
05-06-2009, 01:22 PM
Thanks for the link.

Matzek is better than Purke. If the Reds take one of the HS lefties, it should be Matzek. I'm hoping they draft one of the college pitchers - preferably Gibson.

GIDP
05-06-2009, 01:24 PM
Only thing I'm really interested in this year is seeing what Crow signs for honestly.

RedlegJake
05-06-2009, 01:33 PM
If Purke added a y to his last name I'd like him just for old times sake.

Mario-Rijo
05-06-2009, 01:35 PM
Thanks for the link.

Matzek is better than Purke. If the Reds take one of the HS lefties, it should be Matzek. I'm hoping they draft one of the college pitchers - preferably Gibson.

Yeah I prefer Matzek as well I do believe. Assuming it does fall that way.

Az. Reds Fan
05-06-2009, 01:42 PM
A nice write-up on Purke, although might be a bit biased, I assume he's commited to USC

http://usctrojans31.wordpress.com/2008/08/09/looking-ahead-matt-purke/



Looking Ahead - Matt Purke
Jump to Comments


Height: 6′ 3″ Weight: 170 lbs.
Position: Left-hand Pitcher
Bats: L Throws: L
Team: West
School: Klein High School

When building a perfect pitcher, two of the things you want most are pure stuff and confidence; Matt Purke lacks neither of these and it shows. Purke combines a fantastic fastball with an absolutely filthy set of breaking balls. He attacks hitters and doesn’t pitch to a pattern. Purke has really dominated the showcase circuit and performed adequately in the World Games, though his numbers are affected by one pretty mediocre outing. His fastball moves all over the plate and is around 93-97 from an effortless three quarter delivery. He profiles as a legit number one starter and should be a very early draft pick. He has moved from mid first round to top 5.

The fastball

A very quick fastball that sits around 94 and occasionally hits 97. It snaps in to left handed hitters and bares in on righties very quickly. His arm slot is consistent with the velocity and projects to add a few mph as his frame fills in. He should be able to sit at 96 and possibly hit triple digits under the right conditions. He throws both a two and four seam fastball, generating power from each pitch.

The breaking ball:

His slurve is utterly filthy, think Brad Lidge but lefty. It comes in around anywhere from 77-87 and drops over 2 planes. This is a legit putaway pitch and will become nearly unhittable for left handed hitters. This pitches projects to a 65-70. It has an 11-5 break.

The changeup:

As with most high schoolers, this pitch needs some work; however, unlike many high schoolers, Purke already has an advanced feel for the pitch. It comes in around 81 mph and is a circle change. It drops down and in to left handed hitters and fades away to righties. He doesn’t have multiple grips on it like a Cole Hamels or Johan Santana, but shows the ability to flash it.

By the numbers:

Purke allowed only four earned runs in 76.2 innings.

12-1 record

0.37 ERA

147 K

Complete stats unavailable.

Overall:

Purke offers extreme projectability and absolute potential. He is likely to be critically undervalued headed into the draft, much like Clayton Kershaw in 2006. Purke has pitched well on the showcase circuit, World Games and at the highest level thus far. Playing in Texas, he has faced Division 1 and MLB talent from a considerably young age. His stuff only figures to get better as he grows into his body. His delivery is effortless and very efficient and solid. Unless he goes second overall, he is going to be a steal. As it stands right now, he is second only to Stephen Strasburg, who just happens to be the best pitching prospect since Mark Prior.

MLB Comparison: Clayton Kershaw

Mario-Rijo
05-06-2009, 01:50 PM
Wow, heck of a write up. If all that's true I wouldn't be upset we chose him.

BuckeyeRedleg
05-06-2009, 01:51 PM
I'd rather take the college pitcher (Gibson, Crowe, White).

A HS pitcher is not worth the risk for a return 4-5 years down the road.

camisadelgolf
05-06-2009, 01:52 PM
I'd rather take the college pitcher (Gibson, Crowe, White).

A HS pitcher is not worth the risk for a return 4-5 years down the road.
Do you care to define how a HS pitcher is riskier than a college pitcher?

GIDP
05-06-2009, 01:56 PM
Sounds too good to be true

RED VAN HOT
05-06-2009, 02:40 PM
I could not complain about this pick. It does not sound as if he needs as much development as most high school pitchers. The only negative is that Baseball America noted that his delivery is almost completely generated from his upper body.

Buster
05-06-2009, 02:47 PM
Does anyone know of other sites that have mock drafts?

Az. Reds Fan
05-06-2009, 03:42 PM
The site that has the article about Matt Purke has there own mock...

http://usctrojans31.wordpress.com/2009/04/26/2009-mlb-mock-draft/

2009 MLB Mock Draft
Jump to Comments

<!--[if gte mso 9]> Normal 0 false false false EN-US X-NONE X-NONE MicrosoftInternetExplorer4 <![endif]--><!--[if gte mso 9]> <![endif]-->The NFL Draft is presently going on, which means we are less than 2 months away from the baseball draft. This year has a lot of intriguing names, and some definite future stars. However, it also appears to be one of the weakest drafts in recent memory, with clear tiered delineation. It should definitely be a fantastic year for players to receive a fair amount of money, as the 2010 draft is shaping up to be one of the worst this decade, possibly challenging 2003 for that dubious distinction.




The big story entering the draft season is how much money will it take to sign Stephen Strasburg. The answer, we will find out, is a lot.




1. Washington Nationals - Stephen Strasburg, RHP San Diego State

The only way this move doesn’t happen is if the bonus demands by Scott Boras are exorbitant. Strasburg is easily the best pitching prospect since Mark Prior, combining a 97-101 mph fastball with an absolutely devastating slider. I compare him quite often to Brad Lidge with a better changeup and makeup. He has the stuff and polish to make fewer than 20 minor league starts before reaching the show.





2. Seattle Mariners – Dustin Ackley, OF/INF UNC

Ackley, simply put, is the best hitter in the country. He has an incredibly short, compact stroke that shows power to all fields, and translates well to any park. I’ve often compared Ackley to a young Chase Utley, and feel he could handle the move over to second base to make him an even more valuable player. Fully recovered from Tommy John surgery, he will be an asset no matter where he plays on the diamond.




3. San Diego Padres – Tyler Matzek, LHP Capistrano Valley HS


In many scouts’ eyes, Matzek is the better pitcher between he, Purke and Miller. I disagree with that statement, but the Padres are no strangers to kowtowing to the general consensus, and cost will most assuredly be an issue. Matzek is a fairly local kid, who should move more quickly than many other prepsters because of his overall polish. A hitter here is possible as well, but given the void of youth in their system, I expect them to go heavy prep.







4. Pittsburgh Pirates – Grant Green, SS USC

The Pirates have shown a penchant for going best player available, specifically college ranked, in 2 out of the last 3 years, with Daniel Moskos the lone exception. Green will remind scouts a lot of Troy Tulowitzki combining size, power and fielding ability. He rebounded from a pretty terrible start to the year, and has shown the skill that made scouts drool at the Cape. He has a long swing, something the Pirates coaching staff will have to keep in check to avoid prolonged slumps.




5. Baltimore Orioles – Matt Purke, LHP Klein HS
With Purke in the system, the Orioles likely take the reign as top pitching depth in baseball. Purke shows flashes of absolute dominance with an upper 90’s fastball and a slurve that ranges anywhere from 79-82 mph. Some scouts worry about his mechanics as he throws across his body, but his leg position and shoulder position offset any of that. He should move extremely quickly. His only weakness has been inconsistency, something I expect to change.





6. San Francisco Giants- Shelby Miller, RHP Brownwood HS

This pick would certainly be the first surprise of the draft, but the way Miller has thrown in recent weeks definitely make this a legitimate pick. The Giants have never shied away from somewhat raw prepsters, and almost always reap the rewards of their risk. Few prognosticators, myself excluded, were incredibly high on Madison Bumgarner in 2007, but the Giants saw the potential and have arguably the 2nd best pitching prospect in baseball right now. Miller is hitting 98 mph with developing secondary stuff, and is reminiscent of 2002 Giants pick, Matt Cain.
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7. Atlanta Braves – Donovan Tate, OF Cartersville HS

This would be the ideal scenario for the Braves, as they covet toolsly players from Georgia. Tate shows true 5 tool potential, but is incredibly raw from a baseball standpoint. Tate will be a tough sign as he is a 2 sport athlete who is committed to UNC, which tends to keep its recruits. I expect Tate to move slowly through the system as he relies almost exclusively on athletic ability versus baseball ability, but the Braves have good luck with players fitting this mold.




8. Cincinnati Reds – Alex White, RHP UNC

White entered the season as the 2nd or 3rd best prospect, but has shown an awful lot of inconsistency, coupled with extremely high bonus demands. White is a sinkerball pitcher with mid 90’s velocity, something that fits in very well in Great American Ballpark. He has one of the lowest floors of any of the players in the draft, but also a fairly low ceiling. He projects as a number 2 starter on a great team, or a number 1 starter on a marginal team.




9. Detroit Tigers – Aaron Crow, RHP Ft. Worth Cats

Another year, another high bonus for Detroit, as Crow’s demands will likely be in line with his 2008 ones. Crow has a lot of supporters and a lot of doubters, so this pick is likely boom or bust. He combines a mid 90’s fastball with an above average breaking ball. There are some major hitches in his mechanics which Tigers brass will likely have to correct, as it is a sign of some major elbow issues ahead.
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10. Washington Nationals – Luke Bailey, C Troup County HS

I expect the Nats to go for the best, signable player here after spending millions on signing Strasburg. Bailey is one of the rare prep catchers who has a chance to stay behind the plate. He shows a lot of contact skills with developing power.

They have the complete first round mock...click the link, if interested

BuckeyeRedleg
05-06-2009, 05:00 PM
Do you care to define how a HS pitcher is riskier than a college pitcher?

Unproven. Plus, college pitchers that have made it three years without injury are less likely to go Ty Howington or Chris Gruler on you.

kaldaniels
05-06-2009, 05:13 PM
8. Cincinnati Reds Alex White, RHP UNC

White entered the season as the 2nd or 3rd best prospect, but has shown an awful lot of inconsistency, coupled with extremely high bonus demands. White is a sinkerball pitcher with mid 90s velocity, something that fits in very well in Great American Ballpark. He has one of the lowest floors of any of the players in the draft, but also a fairly low ceiling. He projects as a number 2 starter on a great team, or a number 1 starter on a marginal team.


Never seen this guy throw a pitch, but seeing the front office making a move on a player like this, would show me that they get it. This team could be a home powerhouse if the front office was progressive in the construction of the roster.

11larkin11
05-06-2009, 05:16 PM
" He has one of the lowest floors of any of the players in the draft, but also a fairly low ceiling. "

I'll pass. Much rather have Gibson. I like him alot.

Mario-Rijo
05-06-2009, 05:20 PM
Never seen this guy throw a pitch, but seeing the front office making a move on a player like this, would show me that they get it. This team could be a home powerhouse if the front office was progressive in the construction of the roster.

I think the important question is what else does he throw and can he throw it for strikes. Because when the sinker ain't sinking he needs to be able to get us thru 6 at least. I always thought he was pretty good but I reserve judgement until I hear more on him.

kaldaniels
05-06-2009, 06:02 PM
I think the important question is what else does he throw and can he throw it for strikes. Because when the sinker ain't sinking he needs to be able to get us thru 6 at least. I always thought he was pretty good but I reserve judgement until I hear more on him.

Absolutely...but I'd love to see the front office delibrately build a team to suit GABP.

Kingspoint
05-06-2009, 06:52 PM
If there's a RH Power Hitter available, unless he can only play 1B, I have a feeling that Walt Jockety is going that route.

UKFlounder
05-06-2009, 09:40 PM
Am I totally misunderstanding it, or did they mean to say he has one of the "highest" floors? Isn't a "low" floor a really bad thing, or is my brain just missing something?

edabbs44
05-06-2009, 09:44 PM
Please draft someone who is close to ML ready. No projects.

Homer Bailey
05-06-2009, 10:06 PM
Am I totally misunderstanding it, or did they mean to say he has one of the "highest" floors? Isn't a "low" floor a really bad thing, or is my brain just missing something?

They mean that is not likely to be a total bust, but not likely to be a superstar. A high floor means the very worst he will do is still pretty good. Examples: to say he has a high floor we'll say his floor is to say his floor is Javier Vasquez. A low floor would be a comparison to Chris Gruler.

Homer Bailey
05-06-2009, 10:07 PM
Am I the only one that doesn't like this draft class very much? Or at least the spot we are at? It seems like a lot of risky picks at our spot, and no Yonder Alonso types are going to fall to us. Please someone give me some more confidence!

BuckeyeRedleg
05-07-2009, 01:24 AM
I think the Reds at #8 is a great spot to be at. Mock drafts have shown eight players that stick out above the rest. I'd rather be #8 than #4, where they can simply react and take the best player available (hopefully a college bat or arm). Worst case they get the top prep bat.

Again, I hope they stay away from a prep pitcher with the #8 pick.

TheNext44
05-07-2009, 02:27 AM
I'd rather take the college pitcher (Gibson, Crowe, White).

A HS pitcher is not worth the risk for a return 4-5 years down the road.

This has been one of the hottest debates when it comes to the draft. Logic would dictate that a college pitcher would be less risk than a HS pitcher, and that is what I believed until I did a study a few years ago.

I looked at all the pitchers drafted in the first round from 1993 to 2003, sorted them by College or HS, then selected the ones that become legitimate major league pitchers. The criteria I used was they needed to be in the starting rotation for a major league team for at least one season or be a back end reliever for at least one season. Within those groups, I also highlighted the ones that either were top of the rotation starters, or were the closer for a team for at least one season.

Here are the results that I found.

College (28/94 .297) (19/94 .202)

Darren Driefort
Brian Anderson
Alan Benes
Jay Powell
Paul Wilson
Dustin Hermannson
C. J. Nitckoski
Matt Morris
Mark Redman
Kris Benson
Brandon Looper
Billy Koch
Mark Mulder
Kip Wells
Brad Lidge
Barry Zito
Ben Sheets
Jason Jennings
Mike MacDougal
Mark Prior
Aaron Heilman
Noah Lowery
Jeremy Guthrie
Jeff Francis
Joe Blanton
Paul Maholm
Chad Cordero
Joe Saunders

High School (21/72 .291) (17/72 .236)

Chris Carpenter
Jamie Wright
Roy Holladay
Kerry Wood
John Patterson
Adam Eaton
Jake Westbrook
Gil Meche
CC Sabathia
Josh Beckett
Brett Myers
Boof Bosner
Adam Wainwright
Gavin Floyd
Jeremy Bonderman
Zach Grienke
Scott Kasmir
Cole Hammels
Matt Cain
John Danks
Chad Billingsley

So for that 11 year period, .297% of college pitcher drafted became legitimate major pitchers. .291% of HS pitchers drafted became legitimate major pitchers.
.202% of college pitchers drafted became top of the rotation starters or closers. .236% of HS pitchers drafted became top of the rotation starters or closers.

So for that 11 year period, drafting a HS pitcher had almost the exact same risk as drafting a college pitcher in terms of him becoming a legitimate major league pitcher, and a slightly better chance of becoming a became top of the rotation starters or closers.

That is just for that period, and I am sure you could find different periods would have slightly different results. But based on those results, I would say that the risk involved in drafting a HS pitcher in the first round is about the same as drafting a college pitcher.

Outshined_One
05-07-2009, 03:13 AM
Am I the only one that doesn't like this draft class very much? Or at least the spot we are at? It seems like a lot of risky picks at our spot, and no Yonder Alonso types are going to fall to us. Please someone give me some more confidence!

It's a weird year. Strasburg is the undeniable #1 overall talent. After him, there's a huge talent gap with Ackley and White as the next best players. Following those two, there's a gap with a bunch of guys fluctuating back and forth fairly wildly in Tate, Gibson, Crow, Wheeler, Matzek, Green, and Scheppers. I think Ackley and White will hold the fort down as the second and third best players in the draft, but after them it's likely to be a mess.

It depends on what team budgets look like, though. This may be one of those years where some big names fall dramatically because teams are unwilling to meet those players' demands.

cincyinco
05-07-2009, 03:25 AM
Does anyone think strasburg is going to fall ala lincecum?

If I was Washington, I'm not sure if I'd just as rather spend 12 to 15 million between the 1st and 10th picks and save myself the hassle of dealing with team boras-strasburg...

2 good players for less than they're reportedly demanding.

If strasburg were to fall, how would the rest of the round shape out?

Could get interesting.

redsmetz
05-07-2009, 07:40 AM
Unproven. Plus, college pitchers that have made it three years without injury are less likely to go Ty Howington or Chris Gruler on you.

My brother in law is an athletic trainer with his first job out of college working for the Texas Rangers. He said studies have shown that high school pitchers have a higher tendency to suffer an injury. I don't know where the data necessarily comes from.

BuckeyeRedleg
05-07-2009, 10:29 AM
So for that 11 year period, .297% of college pitcher drafted became legitimate major pitchers. .291% of HS pitchers drafted became legitimate major pitchers.
.202% of college pitchers drafted became top of the rotation starters or closers. .236% of HS pitchers drafted became top of the rotation starters or closers.

Interesting stuff. However, based on the time it will take to advance through the system and the fact that the Reds have not shown the ability to ever develop HS pitchers, I'd still take the college pitcher first.

Again, less of a learning curve. Less room for injury as he has already proven his durability through 3-4 years of college. All that and a quicker timeline to make an impact at the major league level.

lollipopcurve
05-07-2009, 10:34 AM
Am I the only one that doesn't like this draft class very much? Or at least the spot we are at? It seems like a lot of risky picks at our spot, and no Yonder Alonso types are going to fall to us. Please someone give me some more confidence!

I think it's an uncomfortable 1st round pick for Buckley (the scouting director) because the top of the board is dominated by pitching. His record shows he will take a hitter more often than not.

Right now I like Mike Leake, the smallish RH from Arizona State who's got excellent command of 4 pitches, has been very successful against top college competition, and is a great baseball athlete (plays the field when he doesn't pitch). I don't think Gibson will fall (Strasburg has no chance of falling), though I'd like him to.

Don't be surprised if they take a high ceiling lefty (Purke, Matzek, Brothers). It's a valuable commodity, and I've heard Buckley say that.

M2
05-07-2009, 10:35 AM
So for that 11 year period, .297% of college pitcher drafted became legitimate major pitchers. .291% of HS pitchers drafted became legitimate major pitchers.

Except that more than half the HS pitchers you've got listed in bold did it with teams other than the ones that drafted them.

I also recommend breaking the first round into halves, or even thirds. There's a difference between the very top picks and the next tier down. If you want to make the case for drafting a HS pitcher with the #22 pick, I'm all ears. If you want to make the case for a HS pitcher with the #8 pick, he'd better be Rick Porcello or Scott Kazmir. If you can't tell me he's as good as those two, I'm not interested (at least in the top 10).

Which brings me to Purke. He's got mechanical issues and, had they not just canceled the Texas HS season, I don't think he'd have made it to the draft even rated as the best prep arm in his home state (that title was swinging rapidly toward Shelby Miller). Zach Wheeler and Jacob Turner also have a chance to surge past Purke, who was good but not phenomenal this season, on the prep pitcher charts.

Purke is not that Porcello/Kazmir arm. Doesn't look to me like there is one in this draft.

Meanwhile, BA is speculating that Grant Green might be slipping a bit. The Reds should do a jig if he drops to them.

Homer Bailey
05-07-2009, 11:40 AM
Does anyone think strasburg is going to fall ala lincecum?

If I was Washington, I'm not sure if I'd just as rather spend 12 to 15 million between the 1st and 10th picks and save myself the hassle of dealing with team boras-strasburg...

2 good players for less than they're reportedly demanding.

If strasburg were to fall, how would the rest of the round shape out?

Could get interesting.

I believe I read somewhere where the Nats have already said they are going to take him.

Hoosier Red
05-07-2009, 11:44 AM
Interesting stuff. However, based on the time it will take to advance through the system and the fact that the Reds have not shown the ability to ever develop HS pitchers, I'd still take the college pitcher first.

Again, less of a learning curve. Less room for injury as he has already proven his durability through 3-4 years of college. All that and a quicker timeline to make an impact at the major league level.

They also have an additional 3 years of wear on their arms. Depending on the coach, the elite college starters get USED like a pack mule.

UKFlounder
05-07-2009, 11:56 AM
Thanks. That's what I thought they meant. It seems to me that a 'low floor' player would not be a candidate for a top 10 pick and saying a payer has such a floor is really a criticism, not very complementary. I don't follow the baseball draft much, but I hope they don't take a player who truly has such a low floor so early on, but what do I know?


They mean that is not likely to be a total bust, but not likely to be a superstar. A high floor means the very worst he will do is still pretty good. Examples: to say he has a high floor we'll say his floor is to say his floor is Javier Vasquez. A low floor would be a comparison to Chris Gruler.

TheNext44
05-07-2009, 12:54 PM
Interesting stuff. However, based on the time it will take to advance through the system and the fact that the Reds have not shown the ability to ever develop HS pitchers, I'd still take the college pitcher first.

Again, less of a learning curve. Less room for injury as he has already proven his durability through 3-4 years of college. All that and a quicker timeline to make an impact at the major league level.

That is a great point and a very legitimate concern. Bailey is a prime example. The Reds did not do him any favors the way they handled him.

I was just listing numbers and talking about odds from one group of draftees. Lots of opinions can be drawn from them, and like I said, it is quite possible to get different numbers from a different set of draftees.

Benihana
05-07-2009, 03:33 PM
I would love to get Grant Green. He would be my top choice for the Reds (after Strasburg, of course.)