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View Full Version : So... Homer Bailey. Trade Arroyo?



REDblooded
05-08-2009, 02:26 PM
So, if Homer has another dominant start tonight, do you start looking for a trading partner for Arroyo? The Reds could use a RH bat, and pitching will always command a premium. Do you feel comfortable with a rotation of Harang, Cueto, Volquez, Owings, and Homer from here on out if Homer truly appears to have turned the corner?

GIDP
05-08-2009, 02:27 PM
I think we dont do anything until after the all star break with either of them.

WILD THING
05-08-2009, 02:31 PM
I'm not so sure yet. I'm riding the fence on this decision. While I like the idea of getting a solid RH bat out of Arroyo, I'm afraid Arroyo won't be enough to get a solid RH bat. If we have to throw in too many prospects or just one or two of our big prospects, I'd probably wait it out and see who's available mid-summer when teams fall out of contention. We've proven we can win with this offense, but a solid RH bat will put us in contention. If we can stay within striking distance until the trades start happening, then I'd pull the trigger. But if we start to slip before then, I'm not confident that Walt and Co. will start trying to make moves since it always seems we're building up for "next season".

WILD THING
05-08-2009, 02:34 PM
Not to mention, Arroyo might be tough to move because of his ridiculous contract situation. He's due $11 mil next season. Not sure teams will be willing to take on that much of a salary for a streaky, 32 yr old pitcher with carpal tunnel issues.

krm1580
05-08-2009, 03:06 PM
If Homer is fixed and truly a major league pitcher now, trading Arroyo, in theory, makes sense but realistically it won't happen. His value, and by value I mean age/upside+production+contract is not super and I don't see him netting us the type of RH bat we need to fix this offense.

I think his value to us as an innings eating starter is greater than what we could get in a trade for him.

SirFelixCat
05-08-2009, 03:25 PM
Not to mention, Arroyo might be tough to move because of his ridiculous contract situation. He's due $11 mil next season. Not sure teams will be willing to take on that much of a salary for a streaky, 32 yr old pitcher with carpal tunnel issues.

Who has never missed a start and is all but guaranteed to give you 200+ innings a year? Yeah, I think there would be plenty of teams interested in that. $11M is not much for SP's these days

WILD THING
05-08-2009, 03:42 PM
Who has never missed a start and is all but guaranteed to give you 200+ innings a year? Yeah, I think there would be plenty of teams interested in that. $11M is not much for SP's these days

Good point, but I feel like to get anything valuable for Arroyo we may have to package him with some players we're not necessarily in the position to lose.

membengal
05-08-2009, 04:24 PM
The Mets would take Arroyo. In about a millisecond.

DTCromer
05-08-2009, 04:30 PM
Arroyo definitely has some value. Anyone who doesn't think so is crazy even after his last start. He started terrible last year and he ended up great. Arroyo is better than Joe freaking Blanton and the Phillies gave up a lot for his value.

Homer Bailey
05-08-2009, 04:31 PM
The Mets would take Arroyo. In about a millisecond.

What kind of prospects do they have? That are realistic at least...

I came into this season expecting Bronson to be a Met by year-end.

membengal
05-08-2009, 04:35 PM
No idea. But you could probably replenish the lower system with some arms if done right.

Scrap Irony
05-08-2009, 04:36 PM
Agreed. We seem to have (quickly) forgotten how important decent starting pitching can be. Arroyo's an ideal target for some teams-- he throws a ton of innings, he's never hurt, and he keeps you in almost all your games. He's tied for seventh in the majors in quality starts over the past five years. That in itself is worth a lot of offense.

Add a prospect or a reliever to Arroyo and you're looking at a pretty substantial deal.

And I'd be looking right now at deals involving both Bailey and Arroyo. (Not in the same deal, of course.) Whichever gets me the best bat is probably gone.

REDblooded
05-08-2009, 04:38 PM
Agreed. We seem to have (quickly) forgotten how important decent starting pitching can be. Arroyo's an ideal target for some teams-- he throws a ton of innings, he's never hurt, and he keeps you in almost all your games. He's tied for seventh in the majors in quality starts over the past five years. That in itself is worth a lot of offense.

Add a prospect or a reliever to Arroyo and you're looking at a pretty substantial deal.

And I'd be looking right now at deals involving both Bailey and Arroyo. (Not in the same deal, of course.) Whichever gets me the best bat is probably gone.

It's a no-brainer... You keep the younger, cheaper, could possibly develop into a top of the rotation type

REDblooded
05-08-2009, 04:39 PM
What kind of prospects do they have? That are realistic at least...

I came into this season expecting Bronson to be a Met by year-end.

Reds would have to tie a prospect to the deal (francisco?), but Fernando Martinez would have me licking my chops.

nemesis
05-08-2009, 04:46 PM
The Mets would and my guess so would the Yankees. But the Mets really dont have the type of impact bat the Reds need and while the Yankees do I doubt they would part with anything above Melky Caberera. Which isnt what we need. I still say Texas, Oakland, Colorado or Cleveland is our best dance partners. All would want young talent but we seem to have some at the mid to upper levels to share. Have a pick-em package of say Dickerson, Roenicke, Fisher, Bray, Maloney, Lecure, Cozart, Valakia, Stubbs, Tatum, Dorn and maybe an Owings. 2 pitchers and a postion player type deal and go get a Holiday, Hawpe, Andrew Jones or a DeRosa.

Each player could make this team anywhere from 8 to 15 wins better over our current situaton. None of the kids in the minors will give us that many wins this year or probaly next.

Oh BTW... I know some of you were huge Nelson Cruz fans like me and clamored for him in the offseason I felt he was the perfect cheap young bat for LF...

He is batting .295 with an OBP of .348 slugging .543 for an OPS of .891...

With 7 HR and 20 RBI's to boot... How nice would he have looked snuggled in between Votto and Bruce?

krm1580
05-08-2009, 05:37 PM
If Homer is indeed ready, I guess it really boils down to whether we are a buyer or seller at the trade deadline.

If we are a seller then I see no problem dumping him for prospects. A team like the Mets that is under a lot of pressure to make the playoffs after their past 2 collapses might offer a nice package.

If on the other hand we are a buyer I don't see how it will be possible to move him for anything of value simply because of his contract situation. Think about it. If you were a bad team that had no shot of making the playoffs in 2009 what does one year of Bronson Arroyo at 11million get you in 2010. He has almost no value and any package you offered would be more attractive without Arroyo in it. If he had multiple years left on the contract at a decent salary it would be very doable, but 1@11 Million I see no way

Benihana
05-08-2009, 08:00 PM
Reds would have to tie a prospect to the deal (francisco?), but Fernando Martinez would have me licking my chops.

They wouldn't trade him for Santana, I doubt they're moving him for Arroyo in May.

Personally, I would hang onto Arroyo for the time being. I think he could have more value in a few months time. Plus, I think Owings has yet to prove he can hold down a rotation spot for an entire season. I would be wary of a rotation that featured both Owings and Bailey at this point in time, especially if this team has any real playoff aspirations.

However, if Owings and Bailey both continue to improve, I would consider moving Arroyo in July. I would want a promising young SS and/or C in return. Hello Texas and Anaheim...

Roush's socks
05-09-2009, 02:11 AM
They wouldn't trade him for Santana, I doubt they're moving him for Arroyo in May.

Personally, I would hang onto Arroyo for the time being. I think he could have more value in a few months time. Plus, I think Owings has yet to prove he can hold down a rotation spot for an entire season. I would be wary of a rotation that featured both Owings and Bailey at this point in time, especially if this team has any real playoff aspirations.

However, if Owings and Bailey both continue to improve, I would consider moving Arroyo in July. I would want a promising young SS and/or C in return. Hello Texas and Anaheim...

Agree with this post. Owings and Bailey at the same time would be like rolling the dice.

Homer Bailey
05-09-2009, 02:20 AM
The Mets would and my guess so would the Yankees. But the Mets really dont have the type of impact bat the Reds need and while the Yankees do I doubt they would part with anything above Melky Caberera. Which isnt what we need. I still say Texas, Oakland, Colorado or Cleveland is our best dance partners. All would want young talent but we seem to have some at the mid to upper levels to share. Have a pick-em package of say Dickerson, Roenicke, Fisher, Bray, Maloney, Lecure, Cozart, Valakia, Stubbs, Tatum, Dorn and maybe an Owings. 2 pitchers and a postion player type deal and go get a Holiday, Hawpe, Andrew Jones or a DeRosa.

Each player could make this team anywhere from 8 to 15 wins better over our current situaton. None of the kids in the minors will give us that many wins this year or probaly next.

Oh BTW... I know some of you were huge Nelson Cruz fans like me and clamored for him in the offseason I felt he was the perfect cheap young bat for LF...

He is batting .295 with an OBP of .348 slugging .543 for an OPS of .891...

With 7 HR and 20 RBI's to boot... How nice would he have looked snuggled in between Votto and Bruce?

Price is probably going to be pretty high for him. Texas has a hard time dealing talent (non pitching talent that is). They still have 3 of the best pitching prospects in the game and refuse to part with them.

RedlegJake
05-09-2009, 11:51 AM
I agree about Cruz but you have to wonder if the Rangers really had him available short of a king's ransom? He's been touted for a long time and he sure looked like he'd turned the corner last season at the end. Unlike Dickerson for instance, his minor league numbers have been pretty great too, so the Rangers may not have been interested in trading him at all.

mth123
05-09-2009, 01:40 PM
I agree about Cruz but you have to wonder if the Rangers really had him available short of a king's ransom? He's been touted for a long time and he sure looked like he'd turned the corner last season at the end. Unlike Dickerson for instance, his minor league numbers have been pretty great too, so the Rangers may not have been interested in trading him at all.

The Reds comp for Cruz is Wes Bankston. Once touted highly, then kind of faded away but still young enough to come back and be a force. He seems to have gone cold while playing 3B. I wonder if its affecting him or if its just coincidence.

Benihana
05-09-2009, 04:17 PM
The Reds comp for Cruz is Wes Bankston. Once touted highly, then kind of faded away but still young enough to come back and be a force. He seems to have gone cold while playing 3B. I wonder if its affecting him or if its just coincidence.

Wes Bankston was highly touted?

cincyinco
05-09-2009, 06:51 PM
Wes Bankston was highly touted?

He wasn't an elite prospect in the tier of an upton or Bruce for example, but he was a top devil rays prospect for quite some time, when their system was well regarded.

He's not a bum that we should just cut, as some have posed around here.

GIDP
05-09-2009, 10:31 PM
Wes Bankston was highly touted?

Bankston was a guy that most people thought would have had some good years as a starter and a handful of ones at an extra guy.

Jpup
05-10-2009, 02:34 AM
They could just call up Gomes and keep Arroyo.

ChatterRed
05-10-2009, 03:51 AM
If Homer is fixed and truly a major league pitcher now, trading Arroyo, in theory, makes sense but realistically it won't happen. His value, and by value I mean age/upside+production+contract is not super and I don't see him netting us the type of RH bat we need to fix this offense.

I think his value to us as an innings eating starter is greater than what we could get in a trade for him.

Well, Homer gave up 7 runs, 3 or 4 earned, and a HR in 6 innings. His statline was unimpressive to say the least.

I say leave him in triple AAA all year, hope his numbers excel, and trade him at his highest value.

fearofpopvol1
05-10-2009, 04:22 AM
WAY too early to jump to this assumption/conclusion.