Todd Frazier struggling?

[fearofpopvol1]

It's still somewhat early in the season for all intents and purposes, but anyone know why Frazier has been struggling? His power looks to be down, he's striking out a lot and he's just not getting on base as much as he typically does.

[Spazzrico]

It could just be that he was always better than the league he was in. Maybe he is finally being really challenged. This might not be a bad thing for him. I imagine he'll adjust and when he does he'll dominate and move up again.

[Mario-Rijo]

He was struggling something awful not sure why but he did the same thing at High A last season. But as of late he seems to be hitting and real recently has started to pick up his power. I'll take a wait and see approach on him for the time being.

[fearofpopvol1]

Frazier has quietly improved a lot. HR total is fairly low, but he's been blasting some doubles. I wonder how long before they put him in Louisville? Maybe July (if he keeps playing well)?

[Degenerate39]

Frazier has quietly improved a lot. HR total is fairly low, but he's been blasting some doubles. I wonder how long before they put him in Louisville? Maybe July (if he keeps playing well)?

Say he gets moved to AAA in July and tears the league up. When does he get the MLB call up?

[GIDP]

Spring of 2010

[fearofpopvol1]

Frazier's batting average is now over .300. He hasn't struck out too many times either. Only 2 errors on the season.

If he continues to do what he is now, I would think he's Louisville bound within the next 6 weeks.

[AmarilloRed]

Doesn't Frazier lead the league in doubles? I imagine the HRs will come in due course.

[DTCromer]

Doesn't Frazier lead the league in doubles? I imagine the HRs will come in due course.

No doubt. They always say that about minor leaguers like him.

Heck, I think they were saying the same thing about Joey before he was called up.

[Kc61]

Frazier has me convinced that he will hit at the major league level. He now has a steady position in LF. it's just a matter of time.

[fearofpopvol1]

Frazier has really turned it up the last couple of weeks.

I still think he's the the 2nd or 3rd best prospect in the organization.

[Degenerate39]

I wish Frazier was still at 3rd base. Now if they keep in in left field they'll either have to trade Votto, Alonso, or Frazier at some point. Alonso is basically stuck at 1st base while Votto can play either 1st or left. Frazier can probably play almost any position outside of catcher, shortstop, or centerfield. (I'm not sure about his speed). If you move Frazier back to 3rd base then when him and Alonso are in the majors you can have Alonso at 1st, Frazier at 3rd, and Votto in left.

[fearofpopvol1]

I wish Frazier was still at 3rd base. Now if they keep in in left field they'll either have to trade Votto, Alonso, or Frazier at some point. Alonso is basically stuck at 1st base while Votto can play either 1st or left. Frazier can probably play almost any position outside of catcher, shortstop, or centerfield. (I'm not sure about his speed). If you move Frazier back to 3rd base then when him and Alonso are in the majors you can have Alonso at 1st, Frazier at 3rd, and Votto in left.

it's definitely not too late to move him back to 3B and it's still a realistic possibility he ends up there.

[Degenerate39]

it's definitely not too late to move him back to 3B and it's still a realistic possibility he ends up there.

Yeah the problem is that Fransisco is blocking him from playing 3rd base right now. Once one of them is promoted then he can move back to 3rd base. Right now 3rd base is a weak spot for the Reds (I think it may continue to be so even when Edwin is back). So moving Frazier back to 3rd base is pretty logical since he has a good bat that can most likely replace Edwin's production and then some. I don't know anything about his defense at 3rd base though.

[The_jbh]

I think Fraizer's move to LF was to give him some versatility... not permanently removing him from 3B. Remember that Votto got time in LF in the minors as well.

I think if we brought him up to AAA today, he's be starting at 3B.


I hope hes our 3bman of the future

[kpresidente]

If it were up to me, he'd be playing SS until the numbers say he can't.

[tripleaaaron]

If it were up to me, he'd be playing SS until the numbers say he can't.

Same here, then a switch to 3b ala Cal Ripken. (Not saying he is him) It is very important to the success of 2010-2012 that Frazier plays in the infield. With Votto destined for Left when Alonso takes over first, Stubbs/Heisey to man Center/4th Of spot, Bruce in Right and Phillips at 2B, that leaves two open slots. EE may be destined for the Outfield as well as a change of scenery and while Rosales adds fire, he is destined for a utility role.

This would mean that we need Frazier to man either 3B or SS, while looking for options at the other position. With Francisco currently at the same level as Frazier, and EE already signed for 2010 and no above average option ready for short (Cozart, mid 2011?), it would make the most sense for Frazier to man short for 2010 up til Cozart is ready.

[Degenerate39]

Same here, then a switch to 3b ala Cal Ripken. (Not saying he is him) It is very important to the success of 2010-2012 that Frazier plays in the infield. With Votto destined for Left when Alonso takes over first, Stubbs/Heisey to man Center/4th Of spot, Bruce in Right and Phillips at 2B, that leaves two open slots. EE may be destined for the Outfield as well as a change of scenery and while Rosales adds fire, he is destined for a utility role.

This would mean that we need Frazier to man either 3B or SS, while looking for options at the other position. With Francisco currently at the same level as Frazier, and EE already signed for 2010 and no above average option ready for short (Cozart, mid 2011?), it would make the most sense for Frazier to man short for 2010 up til Cozart is ready.

Catcher- Hanigan
First- Alonso
Second- Phillips
Third- Fransisco
Short- Frazier
Left- Votto
Center- Stubbs
Right- Bruce

That's pretty studly at least on paper.

[crazyredfan40]

Catcher- Hanigan
First- Alonso
Second- Phillips
Third- Fransisco
Short- Frazier
Left- Heisey
Center- Stubbs
Right- Bruce

That's pretty studly at least on paper.

Votto?

[Degenerate39]

Votto?

Oh yea I meant to put him in Left

[Mario-Rijo]

Oh yea I meant to put him in Left

I could see that, but I'd put Frazier at 3rd and deal Francsico plus for a SS.

[Degenerate39]

I could see that, but I'd put Frazier at 3rd and deal Francsico plus for a SS.

Which would also work. I think Frazier will be a strong presence at the plate so he has to be in the line up. (Assuming he continues to do well)

[tripleaaaron]

Catcher- Hanigan
First- Alonso
Second- Phillips
Third- Fransisco
Short- Frazier
Left- Votto
Center- Stubbs
Right- Bruce

That's pretty studly at least on paper.

I agree, somewhere between studly and VERY STUDLY, depending on development. This lineup COULD be Big Red Machine like.


I could see that, but I'd put Frazier at 3rd and deal Francsico plus for a SS.

I won't argue with the penchant for trading Francisco but I really think that Cozart will be an above average major league shortstop thus I would trade Francisco (or EE) plus for a young arm and keep the other until Cozart pushes Frazier to third. At this point in time I just don't see a top notch young shortstop coming to us in a trade for merely Francisco+, teams don't just give those away. I wouldn't be opposed to trying to obtain a "sure thing" shortstop, but I think the more important thing is young starters.

[Mario-Rijo]

I won't argue with the penchant for trading Francisco but I really think that Cozart will be an above average major league shortstop thus I would trade Francisco (or EE) plus for a young arm and keep the other until Cozart pushes Frazier to third. At this point in time I just don't see a top notch young shortstop coming to us in a trade for merely Francisco+, teams don't just give those away. I wouldn't be opposed to trying to obtain a "sure thing" shortstop, but I think the more important thing is young starters.

I don't think we can assume Cozart will make it, if he does great but we should look to fortify the position regardless. Also I'd still like to get a good look at Valaika before I completely write him off, although I tend to lean away from him being enough defensively. By that I mean enough for my taste, enough that he won't cost these pitchers too many extra pitches. That said a combination of Valaika and Janish next season could possibly get us through, especially if these offensive youngsters can come thru for us. As far as dealing Francisco (and/or EE also for that matter) I wouldn't presume to think we could get an upgrade at SS for a package headed by Francisco, I guess I should have said something + Francisco for a SS. It's unfortunate that 2 pivotal guys EE & Valaika are hurt we really need to get a firm grasp on both of them before the end of the year.

[tripleaaaron]

I don't think we can assume Cozart will make it, if he does great but we should look to fortify the position regardless. Also I'd still like to get a good look at Valaika before I completely write him off, although I tend to lean away from him being enough defensively. By that I mean enough for my taste, enough that he won't cost these pitchers too many extra pitches. That said a combination of Valaika and Janish next season could possibly get us through, especially if these offensive youngsters can come thru for us. As far as dealing Francisco (and/or EE also for that matter) I wouldn't presume to think we could get an upgrade at SS for a package headed by Francisco, I guess I should have said something + Francisco for a SS. It's unfortunate that 2 pivotal guys EE & Valaika are hurt we really need to get a firm grasp on both of them before the end of the year.

I completely agree with shoring up the position, but I think we should try to do that with the draft or by trading a vet like Harang or Arroyo. You hit it on the head when you said we can't assume that Cozart makes it, same as anyone we acquire, same as Francisco and Frazier. My contention is that the return for Francisco (unless + Francisco includes Harang, EE, or Arroyo) would not merit us trading him, I would rather see how he turns out. I don't think that we could manage a trade that would net an elite young shortstop without hindering our chances for future success. I would not be at all against making a minor move for a high risk/ high reward type shortstop however such as we did with Brandon Phillips, but I wouldn't trade anything substantial unless they aren't in the future plans.

[Mario-Rijo]

I completely agree with shoring up the position, but I think we should try to do that with the draft or by trading a vet like Harang or Arroyo. You hit it on the head when you said we can't assume that Cozart makes it, same as anyone we acquire, same as Francisco and Frazier. My contention is that the return for Francisco (unless + Francisco includes Harang, EE, or Arroyo) would not merit us trading him, I would rather see how he turns out. I don't think that we could manage a trade that would net an elite young shortstop without hindering our chances for future success. I would not be at all against making a minor move for a high risk/ high reward type shortstop however such as we did with Brandon Phillips, but I wouldn't trade anything substantial unless they aren't in the future plans.

Well I just don't believe in dealing Harang and/or Arroyo until we have a proven commodity to replace or at least one who projects too at minimum give us close to what we are losing with them. I like what I saw with Maloney but I don't think he's the answer to losing either of them nor is Bailey IMO. I just fail to see the next 200 innning guy in our system right now, although I like Stewarts chances someday. And Harang and Arroyo will be worth more production for dollar than anyone we can sign as a FA. So unless we do trade for that arm (less likely than a good SS) we cannot afford to lose those guys while we can afford them.

I disagree with the thoughts on Francisco I believe the writing has been on the wall for quite some time and the odds of him ever playing a meaningful game in the bigs is extremely unlikely. The guy simply has too far to go to get there IMO. The time to deal him would have been in the past offseason. But we might still be able to convince a team to take him off our hands before his value plummets thru the floor. That time is the soonest we can get it done. A Francisco, Maloney and Watson deal for example could probably net us Garrett Atkins, maybe. Then you can deal him or Edwin off for a SS now and deal the other once you feel Frazier is ready.

[fearofpopvol1]

Small sample size in Louisville...but Frazier has looked quite solid thus far.

[Kc61]

I disagree with the thoughts on Francisco I believe the writing has been on the wall for quite some time and the odds of him ever playing a meaningful game in the bigs is extremely unlikely. The guy simply has too far to go to get there IMO. The time to deal him would have been in the past offseason. But we might still be able to convince a team to take him off our hands before his value plummets thru the floor. That time is the soonest we can get it done. .

The Francisco wall currently has the following writing on it--

.359 BA/.384 OBP/.598 SLG/.982 OPS in 92 AAA at bats at the end of Francisco's age 21-22 regular season.

Overall for the regular season, 529 official at bats, at two new levels, .295/.329/.518/.847 with 27 homers, 93 RBIs, and 61 extra base hits.

Francisco's homer, RBI, runs scored, base hit, and extra base hit totals are each higher for 2009 than any member of the Reds.

I wouldn't dump him quite yet. Looking good that he will play at least one meaningful game in the bigs at some point.

And Frazier ain't too bad himself.

[Brutus]

The Francisco wall currently has the following writing on it--

.359 BA/.384 OBP/.598 SLG/.982 OPS in 92 AAA at bats at the end of Francisco's age 21-22 regular season.

Overall for the regular season, 529 official at bats, at two new levels, .295/.329/.518/.847 with 27 homers, 93 RBIs, and 61 extra base hits.

Francisco's homer, RBI, runs scored, base hit, and extra base hit totals are each higher for 2009 than any member of the Reds.

I wouldn't dump him quite yet. Looking good that he will play at least one meaningful game in the bigs at some point.

And Frazier ain't too bad himself.

Those are definitely impressive numbers, so don't take this the wrong way... but that's some very low Isolated Discipline right there. Less than 30 points in OBP from walks - that has to improve big time. It's good that he's carrying a high average, and if he's still cutting down on the strikeouts that will help him to do that. But I definitely do hope those walks come up.

[GOYA]

I haven't seen him enough to really make a good call but his bat looks good while his defense could stand some improvement.

[Kc61]

Those are definitely impressive numbers, so don't take this the wrong way... but that's some very low Isolated Discipline right there. Less than 30 points in OBP from walks - that has to improve big time. It's good that he's carrying a high average, and if he's still cutting down on the strikeouts that will help him to do that. But I definitely do hope those walks come up.

I continue to think there is too much focus on JF's walk rate and not enough focus on the frequency with which he makes solid contact hitting the ball for power. For a guy with 61 extra base hits, his K rate (21.7 percent of official at bats this year) is relatively low.

Again, the issue isn't whether he makes contact like Ichiro. The question is how often JF makes solid, hard contact resulting often in extra base hits as compared with other long ball hitters.

This is where I think he excels and I continue to think he will be a factor in major league baseball.

As GOYA says, however, I'm not sure what position he can play at the big league level. That's my concern, not his offense.

[Brutus]

I continue to think there is too much focus on JF's walk rate and not enough focus on the frequency with which he makes solid contact hitting the ball for power. For a guy with 61 extra base hits, his K rate (21.7 percent of official at bats this year) is relatively low.

Again, the issue isn't whether he makes contact like Ichiro. The question is how often JF makes solid, hard contact resulting often in extra base hits as compared with other long ball hitters.

This is where I think he excels and I continue to think he will be a factor in major league baseball.

As GOYA says, however, I'm not sure what position he can play at the big league level. That's my concern, not his offense.

I'm not someone that gets wrapped up in walks alone. I think Doubleday put a bat in players' hands for a reason - with the purpose of swinging it. Walks are better than outs, but they're also less than hits. So I certainly don't find much disagreement here.

My take is not whether these rates would be fantastic in the majors - it's whether they will translate to the majors effectively without a better ability to draw a walk. You're absolutely right... if he continues to hit the ball hard in the majors as often as he is right now, the only issue should be his defense. But I'm not sure how well these abilities will carry over without showing he's patient enough to lay off a slider off the corner in lieu of not getting something to hit solidly.

[Kc61]

But I'm not sure how well these abilities will carry over without showing he's patient enough to lay off a slider off the corner in lieu of not getting something to hit solidly.

I think you have isolated the issue and only the future will tell. IMO, the Reds now have three big time offensive prospects in Alonso, Frazier and Francisco, in the high minor leagues. I know the stats being used to measure their likely success, but it will be interesting to see how it plays out.

[Brutus]

I think you have isolated the issue and only the future will tell. IMO, the Reds now have three big time offensive prospects in Alonso, Frazier and Francisco, in the high minor leagues. I know the stats being used to measure their likely success, but it will be interesting to see how it plays out.

Absolutely. And quite honestly, Francisco might have the highest ceiling offensively of all three. He's certainly shown the most 'flash' thus far.

[GOYA]

I haven't seen him enough to really make a good call but his bat looks good while his defense could stand some improvement.
That was about Frazier but the same thing applies to Cisco. In fact, I'd put them about even defensively.

[Cooper]

Anybody have a good comp (stat-wise) for JF. If the guy plays 2 more years in triple A, is that enough time for him to put together a career of substance?

[GOYA]

Anybody have a good comp (stat-wise) for JF. If the guy plays 2 more years in triple A, is that enough time for him to put together a career of substance?

One more year tops. Probably not even that. His defense is a bit weak but I don't know how much more consistent he's going to get. It's definitely not Encarnacion bad from the little I've seen and he has made some very nice plays. He has an accurate rifle arm but has trouble getting the ball in his hand sometimes. Let Sweet work with him a bit and we'll see.

I don't like comps anyway but it's too soon to make one now. I think he's still improving at the plate. I've seen him make an adjustment to fill a hole in his swing already. He's fouling off pitches he used to swing through. But the sample size is tiny so don't put too much weight in that. He looks like he's going to be very good though. It's hard not to say that with his crazy high numbers at Louisville. Of course, Rosales had crazy high numbers too.

[Scrap Irony]

For those of you who haven't seen either Francisco or Frazier, their batting stances are slightly strange. It came to me yesterday, in watching the last game of the year, who they remind me of.

Francisco keeps his hands really tight against his body and high up next to his chin. His bat wags aggressively, then dives toward the pitch. He looks like David Ortiz, complete with the long swing, though his loop after impact is not as pronounced. This makes his swing long, and, as such, he's susceptible to offspeed stuff. (Too, on another note, Francisco's D at the hot corner is luke warm at best. He screwed up a double play and made NO effort on balls hit near him. Three times he watched ground balls find OF grass rather than dive. I'm guessing Sweet said for them to be careful before the game, though, as Frazier also made a point of not diving for a ball.)

Frazier's swing is much weirder. He jelly legs his front knee as the pitcher is throwing the ball. The effect while watching makes it seem as if he's almost afraid of the ball, but it's nothing more than a timing mechanism. The bat is quick and the swing compact with very little loop or loft. Defensively, he's not bad around the bag at 2B, but made an error-- which Francisco deserved--in trying to turn a double play. His range isn't nearly as good as Phillips, but it looks to be major league average and his glove and arm look better than most at second.

Dorn's swing is still better than either touted prospect mechanically. Short, compact, and viscous-- whoever taught him that swing knew what he was doing. I'm wondering if that's a Cal State Fullerton thing.