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View Full Version : Luck or lack there of



NeilHamburger
05-11-2009, 01:04 AM
So far this season the Reds have played 11 different series. I just looked up the upcoming road trip and looked at the upcoming pitching matchups and noticed something.

Out of the 13 series, the Reds will have faced the other teams number #1 healthy starter in 11 out of the 13. And one of the series in which they didn't face the other teams number 1 was only a two gamer. So of course on this trip the reds will get both Haren and Peavy.

In short god hates the reds.

In long, if you believe this sort of thing evens out they're do for a run where they miss the other teams number 1 and 2.

Dude Rock
05-11-2009, 01:06 AM
What stinks is we just used up our 3 best starters against St. Louis.

Hopefully Arroyo can bounce back, and Owings can continue to improve. But what we need even more is for this offense to continue. If it does, as long as those guys can hold opponents to 4 or 5 runs, we should be able to outscore them.

ian_madden
05-11-2009, 01:20 AM
I see Owings having a great outing just because the traded him to us.

I like the rule of average against other teams with the pitchers other than the aces. I can see us making a run against some teams. If we are seeing the best of teams now, maybe we will see some of the others later.

Slyder
05-11-2009, 10:18 AM
So far this season the Reds have played 11 different series. I just looked up the upcoming road trip and looked at the upcoming pitching matchups and noticed something.

Out of the 13 series, the Reds will have faced the other teams number #1 healthy starter in 11 out of the 13. And one of the series in which they didn't face the other teams number 1 was only a two gamer. So of course on this trip the reds will get both Haren and Peavy.

In short god hates the reds.

In long, if you believe this sort of thing evens out they're do for a run where they miss the other teams number 1 and 2.

Odds are pretty good in an average 3 game series that one of those games will be someones 1 or 2. 4 game series and you're guarenteed to face at least 1 of those two, if not both. Same could be said for every team. Until they start going to 7-8 man rotations it will always be that way. The Reds have had no more or less luck when it comes to facing #1s as any other team (within 1 or 2 series either way).

NeilHamburger
05-11-2009, 11:54 AM
Actually, the odds just by the math come out to 40% of the time you will miss the other teams number 1 guy, that is assuming a 3 game series occurs.

PhillipsHead
05-11-2009, 04:08 PM
Right, and we're not hitting that 40% very well right now...