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jojo
05-11-2009, 02:46 PM
The Reds find themselves at 17-14 through 31 games, a record that probably exceeds most ORG member’s preseason expectations. This is on the heels of a 4-3 week in which the Reds shaved a game off of St Louis’ lead for the division. It was an exciting week that was made even more fun to watch given the Reds were short-handed due to missing a couple key players with the flu bug (Votto, Phillips). It might have been tempting to write the Reds off before the Cardinals series. However, instead we were treated to a gift as the Reds are playing well enough right now for ORG members to start talking about the Reds as being buyers. Fun stuff!!!!! However, should the Reds be buyers? In the spirit of playing GM and trying to look through Jocketty's eyes, here are a few questions that he must be thinking:

1) Do the Reds have a legit chance at the playoffs? In other words, should the FO be actively looking to add talent even if it hurts? Well, based upon projection systems, coming into the season (http://www.redszone.com/forums/showthread.php?t=74607&highlight=projection), the Cubbies were considered the front runners with St Louis and Milwaukee being long shots. The Reds were predicted to be a below .500 team (winning percentages based upon projections: Cubs=.568; Cards=.519, Brewers= .500; Reds=.481). That said, the Reds are charging out of the gates and the Cubs have stumbled. Has this lowered the bar for the Reds, making a playoff run more feasible? Well, given the true talent levels, here’s what the remaining 130 games would look like assuming preseason projections were accurate (many of us thought the Reds were roughly a .500 team so below is a little more optimistic than the projections for them):




Team Wins
Cubs 74
Cards 67
Brewers 65
Reds 65



So based upon what has happened to this point in the season, here's what the final standings would look like:




Team Wins
Cubs 91
Cards 87
Brewers 83
Reds 82



In other words, the Reds are still 9 wins worse than the Cubbies making winning the division a long shot. That said both the Cubs and Cards are suffering some key injuries. Adjusting things in the Reds favor given injuries to the front runners, maybe the Cubs finish with 89 wins. Even then, the Reds would still be facing a 7 win deficit in true talent. That means they’d need to improve their RS/RA by 70 runs. That’s a huge gap to make up in season. At this point, I’d say it’s unlikely the Reds are real players though what happens on the field during the next four weeks could change this, perhaps, dramatically. So let’s enjoy their good play for as long as it lasts while holding off on putting those playoff tickets on the credit card. That said, don’t give up hope either….and….feel free to let yourself dare to dream. Perhaps the wildcard is a somewhat more realistic avenue but they are still chasing teams that are likely better than them in the East and within their division. The gap might not really be any easier as a WC team.

Obviously the projections aren't destiny so one could adjust the above according to their expectations. I think the above is a pretty good starting place though.

2) The Reds just had a successful home stand. Why? The answer may speak to their true talent level and perhaps, suggest that it’s been underestimated. We’ve heard about the pitching. Really, though, the starting pitching wasn’t “shut-down” on the recent home stand. We’ve also heard about the new reliance on speed and defense this season. So how did the defense fair this past week? Based upon UZR, the Reds defense was exceptional accounting for +7.3 runs on the team level with only Tampa’s defense playing better (+ 12.4) during the week. Overall, the Reds team defense is ranked third in the majors by UZR ending May 10th.

So where is this defense coming from? During last week, here are the big contributors with the leather (i.e. these are defensive runs accrued only during last week):



player runs
Bruce 3.5
Taveras 2.3
Nix 1.7
Votto .9
EE .6
Phillips .6


Who hurt them? Probably no surprises here (Hernandez was out of position at 1b):



player runs
Rosales -.9
Ramon H -.8
Gonzo -.7


So what does this mean? Given their offensive contribution during the past week too, a compelling argument can be made that it was the overall play of the outfield tandem of Bruce/Taveras/Nix that propelled the Reds to their successful home stand. Bruce is a monster and fortunately he’s likely still a baby so Tokyo had better watch out. However, Taveras and Nix probably aren’t good bets to repeat their past week consistently. The outfield defense is much improved, but the overall outfield offense is likely to be a problem going forward sans Bruce. Hopefully intelligent platooning and some favorable randomness can mitigate this.

In summary, early evidence suggests the Reds outfield defense is dramatically improved over last season (through remember, we’re still dealing with small sample sizes for a metric like UZR). While the Reds probably aren’t actually the third best defensive team in baseball, they are significantly better than ’08. This is reflected in their current DER of .696 (good for 12th in the majors) compared to their 2008 DER of .673 (2nd to last in majors).

Does this translate into a contender? I still have doubts because the Reds still face some significant talent deficiencies. That said, there is no reason give up hope. Certainly, we should do our best to enjoy the ride.

Baseball Prospectus suggested the Reds had a 15% chance of making the playoffs before the season began. Right now Nate Silver's system pegs the Reds as having a 19% chance.

Jocketty's job just might have gotten a little harder!

M2
05-11-2009, 02:51 PM
If you put some scoring together with decent pitching, then you're a contender.

Tommyjohn25
05-11-2009, 03:01 PM
Cool thread Jojo! I think that, on paper, April and September are the Reds toughest months schedule wise. June looks to me to be the easiest. So far they have kept their head above water and look to be finding their identity as a team. I think by the end of June this team will absolutely be in the hunt, and Walt will have no choice but to be a buyer. Exciting stuff for sure, and I know one thing, I am enjoying this team more than any since 1999. Maybe 1990.

jojo
05-11-2009, 03:09 PM
Cool thread Jojo! I think that, on paper, April and September are the Reds toughest months schedule wise. June looks to me to be the easiest. So far they have kept their head above water and look to be finding their identity as a team. I think by the end of June this team will absolutely be in the hunt, and Walt will have no choice but to be a buyer. Exciting stuff for sure, and I know one thing, I am enjoying this team more than any since 1999. Maybe 1990.

Jocketty must be sweating a little (it's a good thing) because if the Reds really do have a shot, then they probably shouldn't wait until June to be buyers. They should add as much talent as possible as soon as possible.

It would be a bold move in May...

osuceltic
05-11-2009, 03:17 PM
If you put some scoring together with decent pitching, then you're a contender.

They're heating up. Averaging 5.4 runs per game over their last 10. They had so many guys giving them nothing early on, I'm not sure we've seen what this offense really will be. Phillips and Encarnacion weren't/aren't going to hit under .200 all season. They will get more from LF going forward -- it's impossible to get less. Hernandez and Bruce both struggled early but are coming on strong.

I think this roster will evolve into a league average offense as the season goes along. If that's enough to keep them in the race until the deadline, I do believe Walt and Castellini will go get a bat for the middle of the order. Put a right-handed thumper in the cleanup spot and this team is dangerous.

Of course, I can already hear the wailing when Alonso is shipped off in that deal. The response will make The Trade seem like a minor league transaction by comparison.

flyer85
05-11-2009, 03:24 PM
They're heating up. Averaging 5.4 runs per game over their last 10. They had so many guys giving them nothing early on, I'm not sure we've seen what this offense really will be. Phillips and Encarnacion weren't/aren't going to hit under .200 all season. neither is Votto going to hit .380 and OPS 1070

This team needs offense at LF to have a good chance at a run to the playoffs ... and it does not project to be that.

Problem is that it is not easy to trade now. Willingham would sure look nice in LF and could likely be had.

M2
05-11-2009, 03:26 PM
Of course, I can already hear the wailing when Alonso is shipped off in that deal. The response will make The Trade seem like a minor league transaction by comparison.

With Votto around not too many tears would be shed over Alonso. Plus, the usual reaction to any trade is to devalue the guy who's leaving and overestimate the return. The problem with The Trade was that no matter how much you devalued Kearns, Lopez and Wagner, it still couldn't make the return look good.

flyer85
05-11-2009, 03:29 PM
With Votto around not too many tears would be shed over Alonso. Alonso can't be traded until August.

Maybe the Reds could get Willingham for a relief arm or two ... the Nats bullpen is killing them. :D

traderumor
05-11-2009, 03:32 PM
What this team needs the most is not in the organization at any level either this year or next and is going to have to come from the outside, and that is the middle of the order left fielder. Maybe the Nats will talk :p:

If the team is going to be a contender this year, they must deal for that without creating a weakness in the process. Fortunately, I think we have the prospects to get such a deal done. Unfortunately, the only person that I know of that realistically fits that bill is a rental, unless Jocketty pulls off a Rolen type deal. But that sure would be nutty considering they had a cheaper, more productive version possibly still signable in the offseason, if they had just eaten a little crow.

flyer85
05-11-2009, 03:35 PM
What this team needs the most is not in the organization at any level either this year or next and is going to have to come from the outside, and that is the middle of the order left fielder. Maybe the Nats will talk :p:
Willingham, Willingham

Go get him Walt ... time to get off your :mooner:

OnBaseMachine
05-11-2009, 03:37 PM
The Reds need a big for left field and another reliever. The reliever can be solved in house. Ship out Mike Lincoln and callup Carlos Fisher.

For left field, I'd look at either Austin Kearns or Josh Willingham. It shouldn't take a ton to land either one.

HokieRed
05-11-2009, 03:37 PM
Rather than ship Alonso, just bring him.

Caveat Emperor
05-11-2009, 03:37 PM
Jim Edmonds has murdered RHP for his career, can still play average defense in LF, and is still looking for work (ie wouldn't cost more than a plane-ticket to find out about). Gomes is hitting the ball hard in AAA and hits LHP well for his career (and again, wouldn't cost more than a bus ticket to find out about).

Just sayin'...

flyer85
05-11-2009, 03:39 PM
Jim Edmonds has murdered RHP for his career, can still play average defense in LF, and is still looking for work (ie wouldn't cost more than a plane-ticket to find out about).

Just sayin'...maybe the PED Man isn't making deliveries anymore.

traderumor
05-11-2009, 03:39 PM
Willingham, Willingham

Go get him Walt ... time to get off your :mooner:I was referring to Dunn. Eating my own crow there, too bad the one's writing the checks couldn't do the same. They should have flown him in on Lindner's private jet, or Bob's flying tomato, whichever, signed him, thanked the D-Back's very much for Owings and Buck, and enjoy. Instead, we are still talking about Johnny Gomes :(

Caveat Emperor
05-11-2009, 03:41 PM
maybe the PED Man isn't making deliveries anymore.

He did a fine job avoiding a positive test last season, then, when he posted a +.900 OPS in mostly platoon-play for the Cubs.

And I've never once heard even a rumor that Edmonds was juicing. It's certainly possible, and I'm not saying he was clean, but it's not like we're talking about bringing Bonds in and his accompanying storm clouds.

flyer85
05-11-2009, 03:42 PM
I was referring to Dunn.
we all know what won't be happening. Honestly Willingham could be had for a lot less and would be a good fit.

The Dunn train has left town and isn't coming back. It is a bit ironic that he finally is having a Pujols like start to the season now that he is not in Cincinnati.

flyer85
05-11-2009, 03:47 PM
And I've never once heard even a rumor that Edmonds was juicing. It's certainly possiblethere a likely a lot of guys that were juicing whose names have never been mentioned.

Seems like the anecdotal evidence is there, gets to SL and all of sudden in his 30s he is posting OPS numbers way beyond anything in his early career.

With the Angels he was only over 900 once and then he gets to SL and over the next 5 years his lowest 974 and highest was 1061. IMO it looks very suspect.

REDREAD
05-11-2009, 03:48 PM
I don't think the division is attainable this season. As the projections show, we are likely to finish 3rd or 4th.

On the other hand, Washington is probably willing to just give away Kearns for nothing. He's a FA at the end of the year and they would probably like to shed his salary. If Cast is willing to pay it, why not? However, I doubt Cast is willing to spend anything at this point.

Acquiring longer term help (LF, C, and/or SS) would be a higher priority for me than getting a rental bat which might propel us to 2nd place.

Another point is that I don't see why Jojo feels that Bruce can maintain his 3.5 defensive runs, while Taveras and Nix can't maintain their more modest pace.
IMO, the defense is not perfect, but the upgrade from last season has really paid dividends.. It is one of the reasons our pitching is so much better this year.

kaldaniels
05-11-2009, 03:50 PM
The original post states based on projections the Reds will be 9 games behind the Cubs at the end of the year. Does it factor the injury to Aramis?

Sea Ray
05-11-2009, 03:52 PM
It's early but injuries to guys like Aramis Ramirez and Derek Lee for the Cubs and Carpenter for the Cards do seem to open up this division a little more than it looked going in. The Cubs bullpen is driving Lou crazy too

I don't think teams look at themselves as buyers or sellers. They just look at potential deals and decide if it's a good one for their team. This buyer/seller concept is a media driven thing.

flyer85
05-11-2009, 03:54 PM
The original post states based on projections the Reds will be 9 games behind the Cubs at the end of the year. Does it factor the injury to Aramis?and Lee is having problems with a disc is his neck, a very bad thing. How many ABs is Mr. Congeniality likely to get for the Cubbies?

traderumor
05-11-2009, 03:54 PM
I don't think teams look at themselves as buyers or sellers. They just look at potential deals and decide if it's a good one for their team. This buyer/seller concept is a media driven thing.Agreed. I had that in my post at one point but ended up leaving it out.

flyer85
05-11-2009, 03:55 PM
It's early but injuries to guys like Aramis Ramirez and Derek Lee for the Cubs and Carpenter for the Cards do seem to open up this division a little more than it looked going in.
Seems like a good chance is being served. If the Reds are to win the margin is likely to be razor thin, which means everyday they sit and do nothing the desired outcome gets less likely.

MikeS21
05-11-2009, 03:58 PM
Right now, the entire FO needs to be focused on the draft. Have a good draft, get them signed, and then re-evaluate where the minor league system is and then trade redundant parts. Don't trade ANY of your top 40 minor leaguers at this point

At this point, I would ONLY consider trading a hand full of current major leaguers not named Bruce, Volquez, Cueto, or Votto. Actually, I doubt if you trade anyone else currently on the major league club that it would be a big loss.

flyer85
05-11-2009, 04:00 PM
If you want to win now, and isn't that what Castellini has been selling since day 1, then you have to do what is necessary.

kaldaniels
05-11-2009, 04:00 PM
It's early but injuries to guys like Aramis Ramirez and Derek Lee for the Cubs and Carpenter for the Cards do seem to open up this division a little more than it looked going in. The Cubs bullpen is driving Lou crazy too

I don't think teams look at themselves as buyers or sellers. They just look at potential deals and decide if it's a good one for their team. This buyer/seller concept is a media driven thing.

The Reds will have to make a decision though, even if most teams don't in your opinion.

Do they give up prospects for a player like Kearns? Or swhould they trade an Arroyo for some decent farmhands? Questions like those, amount to asking if the Reds are buyers/sellers. Of course all moves made will be determined to be "good" for the Reds in the front office opinions. But someday this season, the front office will have to decide if they are going for it this year (at which point you give up long term potential for short term gain), then make moves accordingly.

flyer85
05-11-2009, 04:01 PM
But someday this season, the front office will have to decide if they are going for it this year (at which point you give up long term potential for short term gain), then make moves accordingly.or they can just watch and do nothing.

BRM
05-11-2009, 04:04 PM
or they can just watch and do nothing.

I suspect this will be the plan until July. We'll see some guys get brought up from Louisville between now and then but I don't think Walt will make any trades before mid-July.

kaldaniels
05-11-2009, 04:04 PM
or they can just watch and do nothing.

Sure they could. However, Walt was pretty frank in the booth with George and Chris this weekend. Welsh asked if they would try to add that missing piece if the Reds were contending, and Walt said, "of course, and at this point we would add a hitter". I'm sure opportunitys are being explored, not ignored at this point.

RedsMan3203
05-11-2009, 04:07 PM
I like it... Gonzo doesn't even play (hardly) this week and still cost us runs! :D

jojo
05-11-2009, 04:11 PM
Another point is that I don't see why Jojo feels that Bruce can maintain his 3.5 defensive runs, while Taveras and Nix can't maintain their more modest pace.

To clarify, I don't think Bruce is that good defensively (i.e. 3.5 defensive runs/week). I think Bruce can consistently be Kearns-like with the leather -i.e. a plus defender (not elite though) who is one of the better corner defenders in the majors. That coupled with the mongo promise in his bat makes him a monster in the making.

I think Nix is basically a neutral defending corner outfielder while Taveras is something akin a neutral defending CFer (0 to +5). Taveras needs to play shallow to hide his weakness (balls in front of him) while hoping the ones he can't speed down over his head won't hurt him because they'll be souvenirs.

The issue wasn't about maintaining their defensive value from last week which represented an exceptional string of games (I don't think any of the trio can duplicate the magnitude of last week's defense consistently). The point was that the defense is better and an exceptional defensive week coupled with an exceptional offensive week from the outfielders drove the homestand. What my original post was really questioning was whether Taveras and Nix can maintain the level of offensive production they put up last week. I don't think they can.

Scrap Irony
05-11-2009, 04:13 PM
Weren't the Reds projected to win one more than they lost? I could have sworn they were-- perhaps not.

I think we can all agree a big LF bat is needed. That much is painfully obvious. The question(s) for Jocketty, Castellini, and the Reds is/are:

-- how much of a bat do we need?
-- how much are we willing to give up, prospect-wise?
-- how much are willing to pay?
-- how long can we last without what we need?

And the answers, so far, are:
1. A big one.
2. Not much at all.
3. Not much at all.
4. July, at the outset.

Not a good recipe for contending this year. .500 is a more likely and attainable goal.

jojo
05-11-2009, 04:13 PM
The original post states based on projections the Reds will be 9 games behind the Cubs at the end of the year. Does it factor the injury to Aramis?

No it wasn't. You can "fudge factor adjust" the impact of him being out 6 to 8 weeks however you see fit. I suggested a "thumb in the air" estimate of a 2 win impact (which is actually pretty sizable).

jojo
05-11-2009, 04:18 PM
It's early but injuries to guys like Aramis Ramirez and Derek Lee for the Cubs and Carpenter for the Cards do seem to open up this division a little more than it looked going in. The Cubs bullpen is driving Lou crazy too

I don't think teams look at themselves as buyers or sellers. They just look at potential deals and decide if it's a good one for their team. This buyer/seller concept is a media driven thing.

The original post was basically motivated by the idea that while it's not like the red sea parting, one might be able to see an opportunity for an opening for the Reds to do something that previously didn't seem like an option. In other words, is there a real opportunity or not? If there is, then should the Reds be trying to add as much talent as possible to take advantage? If they should be adding to leverage the opportunity, I'd argue that they shouldn't wait until June/July......

The buy/sell language was really just a nod to the common vernacular.

traderumor
05-11-2009, 04:23 PM
Just a week ago, the talk was that the Reds would be doing little more than salary dumping Harang and Arroyo. Amazing what a 4-3 week will do for confidence levels. Sort of like following the stock market ;)

flyer85
05-11-2009, 04:23 PM
I'm sure opportunitys are being explored, not ignored at this point.talk is cheap. We have heard a lot of talk from the FO, not very much action.

Scrap Irony
05-11-2009, 04:27 PM
The action that did result from the front office has worked, hasn't it? I don't get the constant harping on Jocketty at all. He's "built" a decent team here, despite fan frustration at his supposed inaction.

Does he have more to do?

I think so.

But it's not like he's stood still. In his one year on the job, he's replaced five starting players, added five bench players, and a starter, not to mention two relievers.

That's 13 players out of 25. There's even more movement on the 40-man roster.

Argue with his effectiveness, okay. But don't tell me he's stood still.

REDREAD
05-11-2009, 04:30 PM
the trio can duplicate the magnitude of last week's defense consistently). The point was that the defense is better and an exceptional defensive week coupled with an exceptional offensive week from the outfielders drove the homestand. What my original post was really questioning was whether Taveras and Nix can maintain the level of offensive production they put up last week. I don't think they can.

Ok, thanks, I misunderstood. thanks for clarifying.

flyer85
05-11-2009, 04:35 PM
The action that did result from the front office has worked, hasn't it? I don't get the constant harping on Jocketty at all. He's "built" a decent team here, despite fan frustration at his supposed inaction.


He has a decent team because he fell into very good pitching.

Sea Ray
05-11-2009, 04:58 PM
The Reds will have to make a decision though, even if most teams don't in your opinion.

Do they give up prospects for a player like Kearns? Or swhould they trade an Arroyo for some decent farmhands? Questions like those, amount to asking if the Reds are buyers/sellers. Of course all moves made will be determined to be "good" for the Reds in the front office opinions. But someday this season, the front office will have to decide if they are going for it this year (at which point you give up long term potential for short term gain), then make moves accordingly.

I'd definitely listen to offers for Arroyo. It all depends on the return. If the return amounts to prospects like Drew Sutton and Wilkin Castillo, no thanks. It all gets back to the same thing...it's not whether we're buyers or sellers, it's what the return is.

Maybe it's just me but I don't think Austin Kearns is the difference between us making the playoffs or staying home so he doesn't interest me right now. I'd rather target Jermaine Dye

kaldaniels
05-11-2009, 05:02 PM
I'd definitely listen to offers for Arroyo. It all depends on the return. If the return amounts to prospects like Drew Sutton and Wilkin Castillo, no thanks. It all gets back to the same thing...it's not whether we're buyers or sellers, it's what the return is.

Maybe it's just me but I don't think Austin Kearns is the difference between us making the playoffs or staying home so he doesn't interest me right now. I'd rather target Jermaine Dye

Names listed by me were purely hypothetical. Do you want your return to pay off this year or in 2 years? The answer to that will guide you towards whether you think the Reds are buyers or sellers, regardless of how worthless you find those terms.

Scrap Irony
05-11-2009, 05:02 PM
He has a decent team because he fell into very good pitching.


that he decided not to deal and, in part, at least, he's been responsible for.

Sea Ray
05-11-2009, 05:06 PM
Names listed by me were purely hypothetical. Do you want your return to pay off this year or in 2 years? The answer to that will guide you towards whether you think the Reds are buyers or sellers, regardless of how worthless you find those terms.

It's all hypothetical at this point. Hypothetically speaking I'd trade Arroyo tomorrow for a AA or AAA prospect that projects to be a starter in the major leagues.

fearofpopvol1
05-11-2009, 05:20 PM
Jocketty said last week (while in the booth with Chris and George) he is looking to add a bat (I presume in LF). He didn't name names, but it is on his radar.

The 2006 Reds overachieved and if they had been smarter with their deadline trade(s), they may have made it in the playoffs. Granted, the Cubs underperformed and the Central was much weaker then, but that's what's great about baseball. You just don't know what will happen.

kaldaniels
05-11-2009, 05:22 PM
It's all hypothetical at this point. Hypothetically speaking I'd trade Arroyo tomorrow for a AA or AAA prospect that projects to be a starter in the major leagues.

Would you do so on July 30 with the Reds 2 games out of first?

Sea Ray
05-11-2009, 05:43 PM
Would you do so on July 30 with the Reds 2 games out of first?

That's a good one. That would depend on what we were getting in return and what Homer was doing in AAA. But to answer your question, I very well might.

TRF
05-11-2009, 05:49 PM
If the Reds feel they are buyers, then they should actually BUY. That doesn't mean give away the farm.

Pedro Martinez is available. He'd be a helluva 5th starter. Owings COULD move to LF.

Edmonds, Kearns, Willingham, and a few others would cost only cash or a few low level minor leaguers. That shores up LF.

The Reds need an impact defender/bat at SS.

And I am of the opinion that CF needs an upgrade as well.

Now is not the time to spend stupid. In fact it's the absolute best buyers market I've ever seen. There is a lot of talent LOOKING for work right now. But I don't think I make a move until June 1. By then we have two months of data and we can start to toss "small sample" aside.

flyer85
05-11-2009, 07:32 PM
that he decided not to deal and, in part, at least, he's been responsible for.Not dealing the three very good ones(Harang, Cueto and volquez) is a no-brainer.

You don't get points for not doing something stupid.

Scrap Irony
05-11-2009, 08:54 PM
You don't get points for not doing something stupid.

Sure you do. Redszone desperately wanted him to do something-- anything. The common refrain was to "blow it up". Jocketty could have dealt Harang easily. After all, he's due $11 million this season and had a very poor 2008. Many on this board insisted he be dealt. (Many might insist he be dealt this season as well, if the Reds go south.)

Jocketty chose instead the Hippocratic Style of GMing. First, he's done no harm. Then, he's looking to 2010, IMO. He's got a young club with legitimate talent at 1B, 2B, and two OF spots, along with five starting pitchers, all 32 or younger next season. None of this mentions the prospects he refused to deal away this off-season as well.

TheNext44
05-12-2009, 01:22 AM
The Reds will acquire a RH bat to platoon with Nix in LF, or just start in LF before the trading deadline, probably much before. The only way I don't see that happening is if Gomes gets called up and tears up the league.

Jocketty makes sure his team always has a big RH power bat for the middle of the order. From Brian Jordan, to Ron Gant, to Mark McGwire, to Albert Pujols. You can tell by the way he talks about it, he really wants one, and is working on getting one.

I could see him getting Holliday as a cheap three month rental if the A's stay out of it.

One huge factor, is that with this rotation and bullpen, it the Reds can make the Playoffs, they could go deep into it. They are built for a short series. If I were Jocketty, I would go for it, almost no matter how far the Reds are out of it by trading deadline.

Mario-Rijo
05-12-2009, 02:26 AM
Depends on the definition of "hurts". If that means dealing a major prospect (Alonso, Frazier, Soto etc..) I don't think I would right now. And I wouldn't go there at all for less than a very good return. A rental bat shouldn't cost us anything close to that in terms of prospects, teams will be looking to dump salary more now than ever.

But if I could find a solid piece that helps us stick around a little better that wouldn't cost a whole lot either in cash or prospects I'm all over it and would overpay slightly for that player. Obviously a lot of people have mentioned Josh Willingham which is ok, but I'd take a chance on Scott Hairston. I just think we couldn't find a better choice that fits so well right now. And if he isn't the full answer we can then use him more in a bench role and find that proper piece to the puzzle come deadline time. Hairston and Nix in LF for the next 2 months both offensively and defensively would be huge IMO. Of course it would probably effect Jerry's PT (besides Dickerson and obviously McDonald would have to go) the most but being it's his brother how can he complain? And Hairston fits what Dusty wants out there in a guy who can play all 3 positions, has pop, makes decent contact, plays solid defense.

Maloney is ready to pitch in the bigs now and him in S.D. is the perfect marriage for a team who will be starving for pitching for quite some time. We might have to throw them a Cumberland or Richar to boot but hey no biggie take 'em both. Especially after we smash 'em this week (hopefully) and push them further out of the race.

dougdirt
05-12-2009, 03:00 AM
I would buy as long as it didn't mean trading Bruce, Votto, Harang, Cueto, Volquez or Alonso. Anyone else is fair game. We have to remember, winning the division isn't the only way to find the playoffs. Obviously I am only buying if its July and the Reds are contending in a legit way for the WC/Division.

LoganBuck
05-12-2009, 06:55 AM
Sooooooooo, is anyone interested in Miguel Tejada? Three years ago, he could have been the answer. This year he is putting up a .313/.341./.435 line playing on that bad Houston team. Does he do anything for you? I believe that he is a free agent after the season, and Houston will be in sell mode. He makes a ton of money.

The Ped man no longer delivers there either.

jojo
05-12-2009, 07:33 AM
Sooooooooo, is anyone interested in Miguel Tejada? Three years ago, he could have been the answer. This year he is putting up a .313/.341./.435 line playing on that bad Houston team. Does he do anything for you? I believe that he is a free agent after the season, and Houston will be in sell mode. He makes a ton of money.

The Ped man no longer delivers there either.

I don't think the guy is a shortstop anymore. He really isn't an offensive upgrade over EE at third assuming EE shakes off his current issues.

thatcoolguy_22
05-12-2009, 08:22 AM
Great thread starter JoJo!

I think everyone is pigeon holing us in to believing we only need a RH LF to improve this team. If we can afford to take a little more risk and move someone like Homer or Alonso (as a PTBNL) we could get a legitimate bat for either LF or 3B. I am still a fan of EE and I like the way Nix is playing the position but a real and drastic improvement can occur for the right parts. Instead of a Willingham and a 830ish OPS what if we set our sights higher? Think about a Youkillis .958 OPS in 08, Holliday .947 in 08 or, a combo of youth and power in Jones, Kemp, Markakis and Ethier. If I was the GM I would be looking for a way to pry Grady Sizemore away from the Cleveland Indians. (Think Homer, Alonso, Roenicke and, Taveras and you have 26 year old CF that spends most nights doubling as a world beater)

We have the trading chips to get any of these guys and still keep our real core together (Cueto, Bruce, Volquez and Votto). Homer's trade value right now is incredibly high and could fetch a king's ransom in itself. Not to mention we could move Harang if necessary. Holliday will more than likely be put on the trading block this year. To get some of the younger guys away it will take a legitimate blockbuster type move to grab. However any of these types of upgrades and we will be looking at a monsterous lineup that combined with the pitching could see us looking at an 88+ win season.


Please do not misunderstand me, I would only make these huge trades for guys 30 and younger that we will have in our control (with LTC signed upon arrival if necessary) for the next 4 years. Its just a thought. My favorite part about Redszone is reading about ways to improve this team and the possible trades out there. I'm getting tired of the Willingham and Kearns discussions going on :) Lets talk real improvement for a change.

Just my .02 and trust me I know the benefits of adding a willingham to platoon with Nix it could be murderous but, I want to dream for a minute :)

schroomytunes
05-12-2009, 08:33 AM
As of right now, my answer is no! The season is still early and yes we are playing decent ball, but it's only May. We simply cannot give up youngsters this early in the season, I would go these routes:

1)Substitute from the AAA roster, there are guys there that are tearing it up promote them.

a)Drew Stubbs for Chris Dickerson
b)Johnny Gomes for Darnell McDonald
c)Carlos Fisher for Mike Lincoln
--we have options in house for substitutions w/o selling the farm

2)Wait for the June draft to see who we land before we trade the youngsters

3)Look for guys that we can buy low

a)Josh Willingham
b)Lastings Milledge
c)Jarrod Saltalmacchia
--these teams need pitching and that is our surplus!!

lollipopcurve
05-12-2009, 08:34 AM
Sooooooooo, is anyone interested in Miguel Tejada?

Yes. I brought his name up over the winter, and there was very little response on the board then. He's been feasting on lefties.

But there's a logjam with Gonzalez. I think Jocketty would have to make the Astros take Gonzo in the deal, which would probably mean including significant prospect talent (Francisco?).

He'll make the routine play -- not worried about his defense. And he'll make a difference in the lineup, no question. Plays with passion, too -- I think he'd thrive in a pennant race. Great target.

thatcoolguy_22
05-12-2009, 09:07 AM
As of right now, my answer is no! The season is still early and yes we are playing decent ball, but it's only May. We simply cannot give up youngsters this early in the season, I would go these routes:

1)Substitute from the AAA roster, there are guys there that are tearing it up promote them.

a)Drew Stubbs for Chris Dickerson
b)Johnny Gomes for Darnell McDonald
c)Carlos Fisher for Mike Lincoln
--we have options in house for substitutions w/o selling the farm

2)Wait for the June draft to see who we land before we trade the youngsters

3)Look for guys that we can buy low

a)Josh Willingham
b)Lastings Milledge
c)Jarrod Saltalmacchia
--these teams need pitching and that is our surplus!!


Why not make the move as soon as possible for big talent allowing the Reds longer with it? I agree with promoting either Fisher or Roenicke and sending Lincoln down. Mcdonald should have been sent down weeks ago for Gomes. Stubbs is ripping the cover off the ball in Louisiville but where would he play? RH platoon partner with Nix? Split time with Wily? His glove will already play in the majors as a plus defender but how do the Reds get him AB?


Not trading away the younger guys until we see what we draft seems kind of silly to me. We will not know the quality of the draft picks in a pro situation until winter ball this year or this time next year. We have depth in the minors right now. Lets use it.


Guys we can buy Low

Willingham could definitely be bought low but he does nothing impressive. Slightly below average LF with a career -4.9 UZR/150. OPS of .834 and he's not exactly a kid any longer at the age of 30. I would rather let Gomes be the RH platoon for nothing at this time.

Milledge can't play CF and projects to be league average in left. He is young and could develop. He never had gaudy minor league numbers and in his first full season last year OPS .731. Color me not impressed. Either could be had for pennies on the dollar.

Saltalamacchia (http://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/index.php/salty-stud-or-suspect) I would be interested in but only as a trading chip. His glove is questionable and his bat is suspect for a 1B. I'm really liking Hanigan as the future right now. The link on Salty is a Stud or Suspect article from FanGraphs (worthy of a read)



I would ecstatic to see some real improvement come from somewhere. Whether AAA with Gomes, Stubbs, Roenicke, fisher or, from outside the organization (as long as it is legit improvement).

nate
05-12-2009, 09:22 AM
Sooooooooo, is anyone interested in Miguel Tejada? Three years ago, he could have been the answer. This year he is putting up a .313/.341./.435 line playing on that bad Houston team. Does he do anything for you? I believe that he is a free agent after the season, and Houston will be in sell mode. He makes a ton of money.

The Ped man no longer delivers there either.

Not me. I'd rather get a bat for LF and leave Janish at SS for his D and to see what his bat will do over an extended period of time.

TheNext44
05-12-2009, 09:50 AM
Great thread starter JoJo!

I think everyone is pigeon holing us in to believing we only need a RH LF to improve this team. If we can afford to take a little more risk and move someone like Homer or Alonso (as a PTBNL) we could get a legitimate bat for either LF or 3B. I am still a fan of EE and I like the way Nix is playing the position but a real and drastic improvement can occur for the right parts. Instead of a Willingham and a 830ish OPS what if we set our sights higher? Think about a Youkillis .958 OPS in 08, Holliday .947 in 08 or, a combo of youth and power in Jones, Kemp, Markakis and Ethier. If I was the GM I would be looking for a way to pry Grady Sizemore away from the Cleveland Indians. (Think Homer, Alonso, Roenicke and, Taveras and you have 26 year old CF that spends most nights doubling as a world beater)
:)

If Grady Sizemore can be had for that package, I'd do it everyday and twice on Sundays.

The guy is only 26!!!! And has a career wOBA of .371! And he's a plus CF'er with above average speed. He has power and speed and gets on base a ton. He and Granderson might be the two most valuable position players in the majors right now. Love to have him as a Red, if it can be done.

He, Votto and Bruce, can hit 1-3-5 and make it irrelevant who hits cleanup.

I like your thinking, build a powerhouse team that contend for years, while the market is low. :thumbup:

nate
05-12-2009, 09:59 AM
If Grady Sizemore can be had for that package, I'd do it everyday and twice on Sundays.

The guy is only 26!!!! And has a career wOBA of .371! And he's a plus CF'er with above average speed. He has power and speed and gets on base a ton. He and Granderson might be the two most valuable position players in the majors right now. Love to have him as a Red, if it can be done.

He, Votto and Bruce, can hit 1-3-5 and make it irrelevant who hits cleanup.

I like your thinking, build a powerhouse team that contend for years, while the market is low. :thumbup:

Yes. That would be an excellent lineup.

fearofpopvol1
05-12-2009, 10:38 AM
If Grady Sizemore can be had for that package, I'd do it everyday and twice on Sundays.

The guy is only 26!!!! And has a career wOBA of .371! And he's a plus CF'er with above average speed. He has power and speed and gets on base a ton. He and Granderson might be the two most valuable position players in the majors right now. Love to have him as a Red, if it can be done.

He, Votto and Bruce, can hit 1-3-5 and make it irrelevant who hits cleanup.

I like your thinking, build a powerhouse team that contend for years, while the market is low. :thumbup:

I think that may be a little much to give up. I'd love to have Sizemore, but you're giving up the 2 best prospects in the system plus Roenicke. I'd definitely give them their pick of Homer or Alosno and then some additional lesser products...but not both.

fearofpopvol1
05-12-2009, 10:38 AM
I would buy as long as it didn't mean trading Bruce, Votto, Harang, Cueto, Volquez or Alonso. Anyone else is fair game. We have to remember, winning the division isn't the only way to find the playoffs. Obviously I am only buying if its July and the Reds are contending in a legit way for the WC/Division.

Alonso can't be traded until after the deadline.

M2
05-12-2009, 10:44 AM
Alonso can't be traded until after the deadline.

But he can be PTBNL.

Homer Bailey
05-12-2009, 10:47 AM
Sizemore is not makin that much money.

09: $4.6M
10: $5.6M
11: $7.5M
12: $8.5M club option

I doubt the Tribe would be looking to dump his salary.

thatcoolguy_22
05-12-2009, 11:56 AM
I think that may be a little much to give up. I'd love to have Sizemore, but you're giving up the 2 best prospects in the system plus Roenicke. I'd definitely give them their pick of Homer or Alosno and then some additional lesser products...but not both.

No way the Indians bite off on that IMO.


Sizemore is not makin that much money.

09: $4.6M
10: $5.6M
11: $7.5M
12: $8.5M club option

I doubt the Tribe would be looking to dump his salary.

Its not about them dumping salary its more just offering a package they can't refuse.

Homer Bailey
05-12-2009, 12:02 PM
Its not about them dumping salary its more just offering a package they can't refuse.

If the Reds are to trade for a player, it should be someone that the other team does not have a problem parting with. The Indians are in no way looking to dump Sizemore. So in order to get him, the Reds would have to EXTREMELY overpay for him.

I have no problem with dealing prospects for a veteran bat that will help us, but the situation has to be right. No matter what, the Indians are going to win that trade. They have a pretty good track record of getting good prospects for their vets (even though Sizemore isn't really a "vet" per se).

dougdirt
05-12-2009, 12:04 PM
Alonso can't be traded until after the deadline.

Sure, but like M2 said, he can be a player to be named later, and it wouldn't take much time to name him.

thatcoolguy_22
05-12-2009, 12:15 PM
If the Reds are to trade for a player, it should be someone that the other team does not have a problem parting with. The Indians are in no way looking to dump Sizemore. So in order to get him, the Reds would have to EXTREMELY overpay for him.

I have no problem with dealing prospects for a veteran bat that will help us, but the situation has to be right. No matter what, the Indians are going to win that trade. They have a pretty good track record of getting good prospects for their vets (even though Sizemore isn't really a "vet" per se).

How do you overpay for something that there are only 2 or 3 of in the world? Sizemore has the best overall game from CF in the majors right now.

CF is the 3rd toughest defensive position to play. Career UZR/150 of 6.5

OPS
06 .907
07 .852
08 .876

SB
06 22
07 33
08 38

HR
06 28
07 24
08 33

WAR
06 7.5
07 5.8
08 6.3

He's not exactly KGJ in his prime and I know the Indians would have to be bowled over with an offer to move him but, I would try and see what could be done. The goal would be to keep the core in place and provide a drastic increase to production. the next 4+ years Votto, Cueto, Sizemore, Volquez and Bruce. Very high quality squad and with the increase in revenues (from actually winng for a change) B Cast could afford to sign all 5 to LTC. We could be chasing the playoffs year in and out for quite some time.

HokieRed
05-12-2009, 12:17 PM
IMHO, any trade of Alonso will come to be looked on as a mistake in perhaps as little as two years time.

thatcoolguy_22
05-12-2009, 12:22 PM
IMHO, any trade of Alonso will come to be looked on as a mistake in perhaps as little as two years time.

How when Votto is already manning 1st and is beloved by Reds fans everywhere? When Volquez started pitching in 2008 people quickly hushed about Hamilton's disappearance. Alonso could be great, I agree 100% but I would take a look at every possible trading chip and using it to my utmost advantage.

Homer Bailey
05-12-2009, 12:24 PM
How do you overpay for something that there are only 2 or 3 of in the world? Sizemore has the best overall game from CF in the majors right now.

CF is the 3rd toughest defensive position to play. Career UZR/150 of 6.5

OPS
06 .907
07 .852
08 .876

SB
06 22
07 33
08 38

HR
06 28
07 24
08 33

WAR
06 7.5
07 5.8
08 6.3

He's not exactly KGJ in his prime and I know the Indians would have to be bowled over with an offer to move him but, I would try and see what could be done. The goal would be to keep the core in place and provide a drastic increase to production. the next 4+ years Votto, Cueto, Sizemore, Volquez and Bruce. Very high quality squad and with the increase in revenues (from actually winng for a change) B Cast could afford to sign all 5 to LTC. We could be chasing the playoffs year in and out for quite some time.


The point is, the Indians are going to ask for the moon for Sizemore, and nothing less. Just because he is a very good player, it doesn't mean that Reds won't have to overpay to get him. How do you overpay for something that there are only 2 or 3 of in the world? What if they want Bruce & Votto? I think that'd certainly be overpayment.

In the long run, the combination of Homer and Alonso might also be considered overpayment. And I don't even think Homer and Alonso would get it done.

Trust me, it would cost waaay too much to get Sizemore.

dfs
05-12-2009, 12:25 PM
I don't think Walt will let a young guy with a history of problems (Milledge) anywhere near this team.

You aren't going to get somebody like Sizemore during the season.

You might get an older name player on a team looking to dump salary, but you won't get that player till July.

Willingham for Maloney makes a ton of sense for both teams. Obviously Walt doesn't think so or it would have happened by now.

Roy Tucker
05-12-2009, 12:42 PM
My gut feel is that this team is still a year off. But then I see how the pitching is and that Bruce is putting up some good numbers and Nix is emerging and I wonder.

I'd wait till closer to the trading deadline. See if this team can play well into June. Maybe platoon EE with Nix in LF. Survey the market and see what's out there. I wouldn't give away the farm though.

NJReds
05-12-2009, 12:50 PM
I do like the fact that the Reds are building up their minor league system. It will allow them to be players at the deadline and in the offseason, and it shouldn't hurt too much.

Remember, the Mets got Johan Santana for Carlos Gomez and Philip Humber ... two guys who probably aren't better than Stubbs and Maloney.

jojo
05-12-2009, 12:54 PM
Remember, the Mets got Johan Santana for Carlos Gomez and Philip Humber ... two guys who probably aren't better than Stubbs and Maloney.

It required a little 6 years/$137.5M promise ring too...

jojo
05-12-2009, 12:58 PM
I know everyone is looking for offense but here's an off the wall fun possibility since Santana was brought up.... a lefty rental for the rotation (Washburn or Bedard). Washburn might be gettable for depth which is what the Reds have in abundance. They could legitimately not feel bad about parting with some depth for a rental.

NJReds
05-12-2009, 01:07 PM
It required a little 6 years/$137.5M promise ring too...

For the best pitcher in baseball. Point is, they gave up nothing to get him.

The Reds can't afford a big $$$ extension. But they can get a good, even great player, without giving up the top prospects on the farm.

fearofpopvol1
05-12-2009, 01:09 PM
For the best pitcher in baseball. Point is, they gave up nothing to get him.

The Reds can't afford a big $$$ extension. But they can get a good, even great player, without giving up the top prospects on the farm.

But you can't ignore the financials. It cost a lot of money that will affect the way the franchise spends for years to come.

jojo
05-12-2009, 01:14 PM
For the best pitcher in baseball. Point is, they gave up nothing to get him.

The Reds can't afford a big $$$ extension. But they can get a good, even great player, without giving up the top prospects on the farm.

The Mets basically "gave up nothing" because they were one of just a couple teams that could afford to get him to waive his no trade rights. The Yanks and BoSox ultimately balked at selling the farm given the required commitment which dropped the asking price.

I agree that the Reds are in a position where they might be able to add a quality player through trade but any conversation about an established good to great player (i.e. above average to elite?) will likely begin with Alonzo.

thatcoolguy_22
05-12-2009, 02:16 PM
The Mets basically "gave up nothing" because they were one of just a couple teams that could afford to get him to waive his no trade rights. The Yanks and BoSox ultimately balked at selling the farm given the required commitment which dropped the asking price.

I agree that the Reds are in a position where they might be able to add a quality player through trade but any conversation about an established good to great player (i.e. above average to elite?) will likely begin with Alonzo.

100% agree

If we are truly looking to upgrade the team to playoff status we should be looking for good to elite caliber players. Alonso is a perfect trading chip to use. He is blocked by Votto, who will be around at least for the next 4 years. Alonso could be great but right now he is a 22 year old 1B in A+ ball. If he could be apart of a package with some lesser prospects for a good to elite player then I have no qualms with losing his service to the Reds.

Look what Matt LaPorta brought the Brewers (http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/evaluating-the-cc-sabathia-trade/)... LaPorta and a bunch of lesser products gave them CC Sabathia. I'm not for using our prime prospects for rentals but, give WJ a 72 hour window for contract negotiations before the trade is finalized. (The article is worth a read btw)

Willingham for Maloney works but not to the level that Alonso + for insert elite player "here" would.

Homer Bailey
05-12-2009, 02:40 PM
100% agree

If we are truly looking to upgrade the team to playoff status we should be looking for good to elite caliber players. Alonso is a perfect trading chip to use. He is blocked by Votto, who will be around at least for the next 4 years. Alonso could be great but right now he is a 22 year old 1B in A+ ball. If he could be apart of a package with some lesser prospects for a good to elite player then I have no qualms with losing his service to the Reds.

Look what Matt LaPorta brought the Brewers (http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/evaluating-the-cc-sabathia-trade/)... LaPorta and a bunch of lesser products gave them CC Sabathia. I'm not for using our prime prospects for rentals but, give WJ a 72 hour window for contract negotiations before the trade is finalized. (The article is worth a read btw)

Willingham for Maloney works but not to the level that Alonso + for insert elite player "here" would.

Look at what LaPorta got. A RENTAL from the tribe. We don't have a player like LaPorta in our system (you could argue Alonso, but LaPorta is much further along than Alonso). What makes you think we could get a player like Sizemore who is under contract for 4 years? What player in recent history that is as young as Sizemore, and under contract for such a reasonable rate, has been traded for prospects in recent years? I'm honestly struggling to think of a single one.

thatcoolguy_22
05-12-2009, 02:53 PM
Look at what LaPorta got. A RENTAL from the tribe. We don't have a player like LaPorta in our system (you could argue Alonso, but LaPorta is much further along than Alonso). What makes you think we could get a player like Sizemore who is under contract for 4 years?

Alonso and Homer is a far greater package than LaPorta and rags.

I would float the idea and package players with Alonso. Sizemore is the caliber of player we should be looking for if there are any discussion involving trading away our top prospects.

Also Rolen and Santana were both rentals. The difference is that their clubs signed them to LTCs. With a winner on the field Bobby Cast could come up with more payroll.

Why trade prospects away to get similar production to what we already have in house? Willingham/Nix is only marginally better than Gomes/Nix (Probably less than .050 OPS wise) Kearns is in the same boat as Willingham.

Who do you want the Reds to chase to improve the team? Matt Holiday would be nice and since he will fall as a type A,the Reds will get 2 more prospects and get to wait 3+ years for them to develop. Who is out there besides aging post PED sluggers that will just take ABs away from Nix or EE? Want to chase after a top tier SS? More than likely you are looking at Maicer Izturis as one of the only ss going to be leaving his team and he has a .700ish ops and average glove. We can get that from Janish/Gonzo. Where should the Reds go?

Its either trade marginal prospects for a marginal return or sell quality prospects and chase quality young talent for a return.

Sizemore might not be available but then you move to Matt Kemp and so on down the line. If you want to wait until the trading deadline that is fine but it will be an actual 2 month rent-a-player for 1 playoff push. Make the trade early and set your sights higher. Keep the real core together and add another proven young star to the nucleus.

Homer Bailey
05-12-2009, 03:27 PM
Alonso and Homer is a far greater package than LaPorta and rags.

I would float the idea and package players with Alonso. Sizemore is the caliber of player we should be looking for if there are any discussion involving trading away our top prospects.

Also Rolen and Santana were both rentals. The difference is that their clubs signed them to LTCs. With a winner on the field Bobby Cast could come up with more payroll.

Why trade prospects away to get similar production to what we already have in house? Willingham/Nix is only marginally better than Gomes/Nix (Probably less than .050 OPS wise) Kearns is in the same boat as Willingham.

Who do you want the Reds to chase to improve the team? Matt Holiday would be nice and since he will fall as a type A,the Reds will get 2 more prospects and get to wait 3+ years for them to develop. Who is out there besides aging post PED sluggers that will just take ABs away from Nix or EE? Want to chase after a top tier SS? More than likely you are looking at Maicer Izturis as one of the only ss going to be leaving his team and he has a .700ish ops and average glove. We can get that from Janish/Gonzo. Where should the Reds go?

Its either trade marginal prospects for a marginal return or sell quality prospects and chase quality young talent for a return.

Sizemore might not be available but then you move to Matt Kemp and so on down the line. If you want to wait until the trading deadline that is fine but it will be an actual 2 month rent-a-player for 1 playoff push. Make the trade early and set your sights higher. Keep the real core together and add another proven young star to the nucleus.


Who else is out there? No one really. That doesn't mean that we could get Sizemore. Players like Sizemore are not players you trade away, regardless of whether or not you are rebuilding. I'm almost positive that Alonso and Homer would not get that trade done. Not even close.

A bat I would go after is Jason Werth. He's 30, and his price goes up big time next year (from $2M in '09 to $7M in '10). He OPS'd 1.020 against LHP last year, and posted a line of .273/.363/.498/.861 in 418 AB's. I'm not sure about his availability, and wouldn't give up Homer or Alonso for it, but he'd a good option for LF.

REDREAD
05-12-2009, 04:54 PM
What player in recent history that is as young as Sizemore, and under contract for such a reasonable rate, has been traded for prospects in recent years? I'm honestly struggling to think of a single one.

The only one I can think of is Josh Hamilton for Volquez (I considered Volquez as a prospect at the time, since he was not a lock for the roster at the time of the trade).

Your point is a good one. Young, franchise-type players signed to reasonable contracts just aren't traded.

M2
05-14-2009, 02:34 AM
Sooooooooo, is anyone interested in Miguel Tejada? Three years ago, he could have been the answer. This year he is putting up a .313/.341./.435 line playing on that bad Houston team. Does he do anything for you? I believe that he is a free agent after the season, and Houston will be in sell mode. He makes a ton of money.

The Ped man no longer delivers there either.

Tejada at 3B might be just the tonic the team needs. He's a steady RH bat in the middle of the lineup and he's not goofy in the field.

Homer Bailey
05-14-2009, 12:00 PM
Tejada at 3B might be just the tonic the team needs. He's a steady RH bat in the middle of the lineup and he's not goofy in the field.

Posted a .283/.315/.415/.729 line last year in over 630 AB's. 24 walks in 158 games. Wrong side of 30. Would mean we're giving prospects to a team within our division. Makign $13M. I think I'll pass.

I'm just hoping the Phillies somehow drop out of the race and Jason Werth becomes available. He'd look great in LF.

bucksfan2
05-14-2009, 12:19 PM
Who else is out there? No one really. That doesn't mean that we could get Sizemore. Players like Sizemore are not players you trade away, regardless of whether or not you are rebuilding. I'm almost positive that Alonso and Homer would not get that trade done. Not even close.

A bat I would go after is Jason Werth. He's 30, and his price goes up big time next year (from $2M in '09 to $7M in '10). He OPS'd 1.020 against LHP last year, and posted a line of .273/.363/.498/.861 in 418 AB's. I'm not sure about his availability, and wouldn't give up Homer or Alonso for it, but he'd a good option for LF.

There are more players than you think who are out there. Right now here are the teams I would list as non contenders: Cleveland, Seattle, Oakland, Washington, San Diego, Colorado, and Arizona. You also have the White Sox with Kenny Williams as their GM so anything can happen. If the Reds are really looking at contending, and adding salary isn't a problem, there there are a bunch of options out there. I think you will see all those teams mentioned above try and dump salary asap if they continue to play poor baseball. If they Reds are buyers in this market, they will be buying at a discount because of team trying to dump salary.

A guy who I would like the Reds to consider is Felipe Lopez. Can he play 3rd? IMO he is a better utility player than Hariston, will come cheaply, has had success in Cincy, and would be an asset to have come off the bench of a sub.

cincrazy
05-14-2009, 12:28 PM
Knowing Walt Jocketty's past, I can see the Reds making a run at Holliday. I don't think they'll give up the farm for him, but I can see them being in the running and trying (key word: TRYING) to resign him in the offseason.

bucksfan2
05-14-2009, 12:58 PM
Knowing Walt Jocketty's past, I can see the Reds making a run at Holliday. I don't think they'll give up the farm for him, but I can see them being in the running and trying (key word: TRYING) to resign him in the offseason.

Could you imagine the buzz surrounding the Reds if Holliday were traded for? Its exciting to even think about it.

cincrazy
05-14-2009, 01:17 PM
Could you imagine the buzz surrounding the Reds if Holliday were traded for? Its exciting to even think about it.

Well, if the Reds want to do it, I think they certainly have the prospects to make it happen. If this team is in the hunt I'm POSITIVE that this ownership and management won't sit on it and not do a thing.

M2
05-14-2009, 03:56 PM
Posted a .283/.315/.415/.729 line last year in over 630 AB's. 24 walks in 158 games. Wrong side of 30. Would mean we're giving prospects to a team within our division. Makign $13M. I think I'll pass.

Not all guys over 30 should be treated like radioactive substances.

I haven't seen Tejada this year, so I'd want to know more about his bat speed and how he looks in the field before I said he was definitely a player the Reds should target. Yet a bat-on-ball RH hitter who historically hits RHPs just about as well as he does LHPs sure wouldn't hurt.

It's easy to insist that the team should take no risks, but, IMO, this team isn't winning anything unless it does.

You can probably get him for next to no prospect cost if you're willing to pay his salary. Teams that are willing to pay cash often get to hold onto their prospects. Two nominal C+ prospects might get the job done.

Big Klu
05-14-2009, 06:37 PM
Knowing Walt Jocketty's past, I can see the Reds making a run at Holliday. I don't think they'll give up the farm for him, but I can see them being in the running and trying (key word: TRYING) to resign him in the offseason.


Could you imagine the buzz surrounding the Reds if Holliday were traded for? Its exciting to even think about it.


I fervantly hope that this never happens. I loathe Holliday with every fiber of my being.

cincrazy
05-14-2009, 06:56 PM
I fervantly hope that this never happens. I loathe Holliday with every fiber of my being.

I wouldn't give up too much for him, I do think he's over-hyped, but I think GABP couldn't do anything but help his offensive stats. I think he'd flourish hitting in between Votto and Bruce.

M2
05-14-2009, 06:59 PM
I loathe Holliday with every fiber of my being.

Really? Why?

Big Klu
05-14-2009, 07:23 PM
Really? Why?

I watched him play in the 2006 WBC, and I believe that he tanked a play in LF. (I can't prove it, but I am convinced of it.) Now I know that the argument is that it's "just" the WBC, and it doesn't "count", but I can't tolerate anyone who tanks a play.

FYI, the play in question was against Canada. The batter hit a ball to LF that got by Holliday. Instead of pursuing the ball, he started limping around in LF--apparently injured--and then just stopped as the ball rolled into the corner. Ken Griffey Jr. had to run all the way over from CF (on his reconstructed hamstrings) to get the ball, and the batter got an inside-the-park HR. As soon as the play was over, Holliday trotted back to his position like nothing was wrong--suffering no adverse effects. It really looked like he didn't want to chase the ball, so he feigned an injury. That was enough to sway me against him.

I know it's probably irrational--but it's the way I feel. If he were ever to become a Red, he would immediately become my all-time most disliked Red--ahead of Danny Graves, Tim Leary, Brad Gulden, Jim Kern, and Woodie Fryman. I probably wouldn't follow the team as closely as I do now, and I would hope for the day that he became a "former Red".

Gainesville Red
05-14-2009, 07:27 PM
If the Marlins fall out, how about getting Cantu back? I don't know where he'd play. Third I guess? I don't know if he can play left. Any takers?

Homer Bailey
05-14-2009, 07:29 PM
If the Marlins fall out, how about getting Cantu back? I don't know where he'd play. Third I guess? I don't know if he can play left. Any takers?

You just summed it up right there. Would be a great bat, but he's got no where to play. He is a terrible, terrible defender.

Big Klu
05-14-2009, 07:29 PM
If the Marlins fall out, how about getting Cantu back? I don't know where he'd play. Third I guess? I don't know if he can play left. Any takers?

Cantu's glove at 3B is significantly worse than Edwin's.