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View Full Version : Would you trade for Jake Peavy?



RedsManRick
05-15-2009, 05:12 PM
The Reds are in the unusual position of having a lot of solid prospects in the pipeline, but not many who look like big impact type guys (at least not in the upper minors). Meanwhile, the Padres farm system is mediocre, ownership is a mess, and the major league team is horrible.

The Reds don't really need more starting pitching, outside of the fact that you always need more starting pitching. And Jake Peavy has a full no trade contact and has expressed very limited interest in going anywhere besides LA and Chicago. But let's assume for a moment that the Reds are still fighting for first place and Peavy decides to expand his options. Towers calls and asks you to make an offer. Castellini has given you the green light to add his salary. What do you do?

I'd bite and I'd offer:
SP Bailey
SP Maloney
RP Manuel
CF Stubbs
UT Richar

This would give us arguably the best rotation in baseball, a solid defense, and offense which might just be able to scrap together 700 runs if Taveras can keep finding his way to first base. I'd really love to strike while Bruce and Votto are cheap. If you have to make some room salary wise, you trade Cordero to the Yankees for whatever return is necessary such that they take all of his salary.

We have enough pitching depth signed for the next few years that Bailey is worth more to somebody else than to us. Stubbs is seemingly turning a corner, but Heisey is hot on his tail and Taveras is signed for 2 years. If the Padres ditch Kouzmanoff, who isn't hitting, and move Headley back to 3B, Stubbs would slot in quite nicely for them in CF, pushing Gerut to LF while Kyle Blanks learns how to play the OF in AAA. Bailey and/or Maloney could join the Padres rotation immediately.

Too much? Too little? Too crazy? Would we need to add another top prospect like Fransisco or higher ceiling 2nd starter (Ramirez? Thompson?)?

I realize this is moot given Peavy's no-trade, but hey, why not dream?

Benihana
05-15-2009, 05:28 PM
Way too little in my opinion. The Pads would ask for one of Bruce, Votto, Cueto or Volquez. After they were rejected, they would most likely demand Bailey, Alonso and another B level prospect (ie Stubbs, Valaika, etc.)

While it would be great to have Peavy, I don't think the Reds can afford to bankrupt the system of all their hitting prospects, given the current makeup of the roster. Unless Laynce Nix proves to be the real solution in LF, they simply can't afford to mortgage the entire farm system for Peavy when he's not one of their most pressing needs.

On another note, I would be closely monitoring the Brandon Webb situation in Arizona. The DBags yanked his extension offer with the injury, are looking to unload salary (http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2009/05/diamondbacks-trade-candidates.html), and it might be a gamble worth taking. It's all the more interesting because he's a FA after this year, has local ties, and may be inclined to give a hometown discount. I would feel a lot better if the Reds had a better medical team, however.

Along those lines, once Arroyo starts pitching better, how about the following three-way deal:

Reds trade: Homer Bailey, David Weathers, Bronson Arroyo, Drew Sutton
Mets trade: Fernando Martinez
DBacks trade: Brandon Webb and Tony Clark

Reds get: Brandon Webb (giving them the best rotation in baseball with the option to lock Webb up long-term)
Mets get: Bronson Arroyo, David Weathers and Tony Clark (they need SP and RP help, plus Clark fills in at 1B until Delgado comes back)
Dbacks get: Homer Bailey, Drew Sutton, and Fernando Martinez (younger and cheaper)


The Reds have no need for Bailey if they acquire Webb, who also replaces Arroyo in the rotation. Drew Sutton is redundant with Valaika and Rosales. The Reds could sell high on Weathers to a team reeling after Putz's last few meltdowns. The Mets trade one prospect to get the reliable starter they need as well as a reliable arm to stabilize the bullpen. They also get their replacement 1B with Delgado on the DL. The DBacks get younger and cheaper with two premier prospects and a useful one, just by shedding a FA-to-be and a replaceable bench player.

Webb-Harang-Cueto-Volquez-Owings: The best rotation in the game through 2012.

_Sir_Charles_
05-15-2009, 05:29 PM
To me, that seems like too much. I'd also be wondering if there might be something wrong with him too. His ERA this year is standing out like a sore thumb compared to what he usually does. His k/bb is still dominating and he still limits hits quite well. Don't get me wrong, I'd love to have him on our staff...but he may be on the down turn right now and I'd hate to get burned by another Starting Pitcher.

jojo
05-15-2009, 05:32 PM
Peavey is kicking butt and taking no prisoners through his first 8 starts. If there is something wrong with him, then the thought of him being right scares me.

osuceltic
05-15-2009, 05:34 PM
Too little. I agree that Alonso would have to be included.

dougdirt
05-15-2009, 05:36 PM
The most I would offer would be Bailey, Any one of the starters in the system not named Sulbaran, Stubbs, Heisey, Frazier and one of the relievers in AAA between Roenicke, Fisher and Viola.

That would be a tough pill to swallow, but if we get Jake Peavy on this team and he stays healthy, we will be going to the playoffs until his contract is up. With that said, he has a full no trade clause this year and can block half the teams in baseball next year.

Homer Bailey
05-15-2009, 05:41 PM
Alonso would have to be included. Also, Peavy has a full no trade clause, and probably wouldn't waive it to come to Cincy. Plus he is pretty expensive. I understand he is very good, but very expensive. This would be a LOT of money tied up in Arroyo, Harang, and Peavy.

10:$15M,
11:$16M,
12:$17M,
13:$22M club option ($4M buyout)

_Sir_Charles_
05-15-2009, 05:50 PM
Peavey is kicking butt and taking no prisoners through his first 8 starts. If there is something wrong with him, then the thought of him being right scares me.

Okay, I'm only looking at his stats and that 4.30 era stands out to me. 5.74 era for the first month. Unless he's continually getting screwed by his bullpen (certainly possible), that number doesn't scream "kicking butt" in my book. But like I said, the numbers lie quite often so I could very easily be wrong there. His other numbers look great.

nate
05-15-2009, 05:53 PM
I think Rick's scenario is more realistic than mine of EE, Arroyo and Dickerson. However, the problem for the Reds is they take an a huge salary for Peavy. I think he makes something like $52mm/3 years. That's a pretty big commitment.

Mario-Rijo
05-15-2009, 06:02 PM
Alonso would have to be included. Also, Peavy has a full no trade clause, and probably wouldn't waive it to come to Cincy. Plus he is pretty expensive. I understand he is very good, but very expensive. This would be a LOT of money tied up in Arroyo, Harang, and Peavy.

10:$15M,
11:$16M,
12:$17M,
13:$22M club option ($4M buyout)

Hypothetically the Reds would then turn down the options in '11 for Harang and Arroyo which would save them just under 20 million (19.75) to go against Peavy's deal. Which means in theory only his 15M '09 & 17M in '12 puts us over any expected budgets because his '13 can be bought out for 4 million and probably would. Unless they do compete and draw well for the next 2 months I don't see it happening, if they do draw well it's within the realm of possibility. But I think the sticking point would be next year, we don't have a lot coming off the books next season and I doubt we get anywhere near a 90 million dollar payroll. Especially when it comes to adding to an already perceived strength.

FWIW I think Ricks offer would be more than enough to actually get it done.

Benihana
05-15-2009, 06:10 PM
If you acquire Peavy, you have to trade Arroyo- no doubt about it.

I think Webb is a more likely target, as he may actually have a desire to play in Cincy.

flyer85
05-15-2009, 06:50 PM
I'd pass and find a bat.

BrooklynRedz
05-15-2009, 06:52 PM
If you acquire Peavy, you have to trade Arroyo- no doubt about it.

I think Webb is a more likely target, as he may actually have a desire to play in Cincy.

Webb has zero interest playing full-time in Cincy. If/when he parts ways with Arizona, he'll look to land on the north side of Chicago.

jojo
05-15-2009, 07:08 PM
Okay, I'm only looking at his stats and that 4.30 era stands out to me. 5.74 era for the first month. Unless he's continually getting screwed by his bullpen (certainly possible), that number doesn't scream "kicking butt" in my book. But like I said, the numbers lie quite often so I could very easily be wrong there. His other numbers look great.

ERA is an extremely rough estimate of a pitcher's performance because it includes the effects of a bunch out things that are out of a pitcher's control.

The best way to evaluate a pitcher is to examine his peripherals (i.e. the things he can control-i.e. "make 'em miss" metrics, command, ball in play tendencies).

In Peavey's first 8 starts he's posted this: K/9= 10.49 ; BB/9= 3.27; K/BB= 3.21; GB%= 43%; FB%=37% (NL ave for starters: K/9=6.8, BB/9=3.75 K/BB=1.81). His luck metrics aren't nutty (BABIP=.311; HR/FB%= 12.4; LOB%= 68%) but they are just off of league normal rates enough to help inflate his ERA. In other words, he's pitched much better than his ERA and in part, some randomness is concealing it.

He's shown significantly better than average make' em miss ability while showing above average command with GB ball in play tendencies.... it's ideal profile for a starting pitcher. He's done it both on the road and at home too.

Benihana
05-15-2009, 07:44 PM
Webb has zero interest playing full-time in Cincy. If/when he parts ways with Arizona, he'll look to land on the north side of Chicago.

What makes you think this?

jojo
05-15-2009, 07:56 PM
What makes you think this?

Because northern KY is Cubbie country?

thatcoolguy_22
05-15-2009, 08:39 PM
What if included in the deal was the under performing Brian Giles? Giles has a no trade status but he would be jumping into a pennant race (he might rescind for 2 more months of meaningful baseball) and San Diego would be dropping the prorated portion of his 9 million.

SD
Jake Peavy
Brian Giles

Cin
Homer Bailey
Drew Stubbs (his glove would be phenomenal in that ball park)
Neftali Soto
plus athrow in a random low level 25-30 reds range prospect

We cut ties with Giles at the end of the year.


offering SD more salary relief while giving them Homer, a big time prospect in Soto and, a rangy CF with doubles power. We get to hold onto Alonso and Micah moves to the pen or Arroyo is shipped to provide us salary relief.

Chip R
05-15-2009, 09:32 PM
What if included in the deal was the under performing Brian Giles? Giles has a no trade status but he would be jumping into a pennant race (he might rescind for 2 more months of meaningful baseball) and San Diego would be dropping the prorated portion of his 9 million.


Didn't he turn down a trade to the Red Sox last year to stay in S.D.?

KoryMac5
05-15-2009, 10:13 PM
I would imagine the Padres would be major players at the deadline, though I would target Kouzmanoff before Giles and Peavy.

thatcoolguy_22
05-15-2009, 10:33 PM
Didn't he turn down a trade to the Red Sox last year to stay in S.D.?

Very possible. However last year he still had a club option and a chance at another year in San Diego. This time around its literally going to be for 2-3 months. Slightly different but he very well could just say no. He's only apart of the trade to provide salary relief to the Padres...

fearofpopvol1
05-16-2009, 01:09 AM
Way too little in my opinion. The Pads would ask for one of Bruce, Votto, Cueto or Volquez. After they were rejected, they would most likely demand Bailey, Alonso and another B level prospect (ie Stubbs, Valaika, etc.)

While it would be great to have Peavy, I don't think the Reds can afford to bankrupt the system of all their hitting prospects, given the current makeup of the roster. Unless Laynce Nix proves to be the real solution in LF, they simply can't afford to mortgage the entire farm system for Peavy when he's not one of their most pressing needs.

On another note, I would be closely monitoring the Brandon Webb situation in Arizona. The DBags yanked his extension offer with the injury, are looking to unload salary (http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2009/05/diamondbacks-trade-candidates.html), and it might be a gamble worth taking. It's all the more interesting because he's a FA after this year, has local ties, and may be inclined to give a hometown discount. I would feel a lot better if the Reds had a better medical team, however.

Along those lines, once Arroyo starts pitching better, how about the following three-way deal:

Reds trade: Homer Bailey, David Weathers, Bronson Arroyo, Drew Sutton
Mets trade: Fernando Martinez
DBacks trade: Brandon Webb and Tony Clark

Reds get: Brandon Webb (giving them the best rotation in baseball with the option to lock Webb up long-term)
Mets get: Bronson Arroyo, David Weathers and Tony Clark (they need SP and RP help, plus Clark fills in at 1B until Delgado comes back)
Dbacks get: Homer Bailey, Drew Sutton, and Fernando Martinez (younger and cheaper)


The Reds have no need for Bailey if they acquire Webb, who also replaces Arroyo in the rotation. Drew Sutton is redundant with Valaika and Rosales. The Reds could sell high on Weathers to a team reeling after Putz's last few meltdowns. The Mets trade one prospect to get the reliable starter they need as well as a reliable arm to stabilize the bullpen. They also get their replacement 1B with Delgado on the DL. The DBacks get younger and cheaper with two premier prospects and a useful one, just by shedding a FA-to-be and a replaceable bench player.

Webb-Harang-Cueto-Volquez-Owings: The best rotation in the game through 2012.

I don't think it would take that much. The Cubs almost got Peavy for a lot less than what RMR threw out there.

For the record, I'd do RMR's proposal. The biggest questions is would the Reds be able to afford it (or want to)?

tripleaaaron
05-16-2009, 02:52 AM
I would try to make a 3-way deal with us giving up Arroyo to the other participating team, with that team in turn kicking a B type prospect or two, along with a lesser prospect to the DBags. We would also send Homer, Stubbs, Thompson and Sutton.

Topcat
05-16-2009, 04:49 AM
The Reds are in the unusual position of having a lot of solid prospects in the pipeline, but not many who look like big impact type guys (at least not in the upper minors). Meanwhile, the Padres farm system is mediocre, ownership is a mess, and the major league team is horrible.

The Reds don't really need more starting pitching, outside of the fact that you always need more starting pitching. And Jake Peavy has a full no trade contact and has expressed very limited interest in going anywhere besides LA and Chicago. But let's assume for a moment that the Reds are still fighting for first place and Peavy decides to expand his options. Towers calls and asks you to make an offer. Castellini has given you the green light to add his salary. What do you do?

I'd bite and I'd offer:
SP Bailey
SP Maloney
RP Manuel
CF Stubbs
UT Richar

This would give us arguably the best rotation in baseball, a solid defense, and offense which might just be able to scrap together 700 runs if Taveras can keep finding his way to first base. I'd really love to strike while Bruce and Votto are cheap. If you have to make some room salary wise, you trade Cordero to the Yankees for whatever return is necessary such that they take all of his salary.

We have enough pitching depth signed for the next few years that Bailey is worth more to somebody else than to us. Stubbs is seemingly turning a corner, but Heisey is hot on his tail and Taveras is signed for 2 years. If the Padres ditch Kouzmanoff, who isn't hitting, and move Headley back to 3B, Stubbs would slot in quite nicely for them in CF, pushing Gerut to LF while Kyle Blanks learns how to play the OF in AAA. Bailey and/or Maloney could join the Padres rotation immediately.

Too much? Too little? Too crazy? Would we need to add another top prospect like Fransisco or higher ceiling 2nd starter (Ramirez? Thompson?)?

I realize this is moot given Peavy's no-trade, but hey, why not dream?



For that package yes I go all in , that being said would that be something the Padres would accept ? I also spin Bronson for a package deal that gives Reds a possible prospect at SS and Catcher and 1 bat that can start on MLB roster