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Hondo
05-16-2009, 01:25 PM
Ok, so people are talking about Jake Peavy in the ORG...

I have posted in the off season how the Reds need to pursue this guy...

There are some people who think He takes Volquez, Bruce, etc... Which is a Pipe Dream... Players are not being moved for guys like that anymore...

Look at Danny Haren last year... Javier Vasquez.... Eric Bedard didn't even garner a guy like Bruce or Volquez... Adam Jones... Who was a Great but not elite prospect with very little time in the Majors...

So here is the scenerio...

Stubbs, Bailey, Edwin would be a good start of a Trade Package... Obviously a couple other guys would have to be included... But not a Bruce or Cueto... More like A-AA players... Maybe even an OF'er like Dickerson...

The Padres are looking to Purge the Payroll... Atlanta would not let go of Schaffer and their Blue Chip guys... So why Should the Reds? It will not take Bruce, Cueto to start that Trade Talk so why even say it will? The market will not bear it...

There is also talk of Brandon Webb? I am not so sure he is available but he would be a Great Pitcher to add with his Ground Ball inducing ability in GAB... I just don't think the D Backs even Shop him... But if Peavy was aquired, I would agree with another guy in the ORG that moving Arroyo to a Contender would be a Good idea to find a legit SS or Catching Prospect... Maybe even a LF Prospect with Power...

So anyway, let the Debate begin...

nmculbreth
05-16-2009, 02:38 PM
There are some people who think He takes Volquez, Bruce, etc... Which is a Pipe Dream... Players are not being moved for guys like that anymore...

Look at Danny Haren last year... Javier Vasquez.... Eric Bedard didn't even garner a guy like Bruce or Volquez... Adam Jones... Who was a Great but not elite prospect with very little time in the Majors...


Let's revisit some of the trades you mention...

In exchange for Erik Bedard the Orioles received Adam Jones, George Sherrill, Chris Tillman and two more fringe players. At the time of the trade Adam Jones was a top 30 prospect and he's currently posting a .370 / .426 / 1.095 line in the majors. Sherrill became the Oriole's closer and made the All Star game last season. Tillman is currently in AAA and Baseball America rates him as the 22nd best prospect in all of baseball.

In exchange for Dan Haren the A's recieved Brett Anderson, Carlos Gonzalez, Greg Smith, Dana Eveland and two more fringe prospects. Coming into the season Anderson was rated the 7th best prospect in baseball and as a 21 year-old he's already in the A's starting rotation. Gonzalez was considered a top 30 prospect last year and was the centerpiece of the deal that brought Matt Holliday from Colorado. Eveland and Smith both grade out as back of the rotation arms and Smith was included as a part of the Holliday deal.

A package of Bailey, Stubbs and EE doesn't even come close to approaching those two deals in terms of value. Encarnacion is only under contract through next season, he's becoming expensive and the Padres already have Kouzmanoff and Chase Headley at 3B. Given the Padres situation I'd imagine they'd have absolutely no interest in him.

If you're going to use the Bedard and Haren deals as a model for any Peavy deal, you're looking at a package something like Bailey, Alonso, Soto / Francisco and Roenicke / Fischer.

Dude Rock
05-16-2009, 02:56 PM
Let's revisit some of the trades you mention...

In exchange for Erik Bedard the Orioles received Adam Jones, George Sherrill, Chris Tillman and two more fringe players. At the time of the trade Adam Jones was a top 30 prospect and he's currently posting a .370 / .426 / 1.095 line in the majors. Sherrill became the Oriole's closer and made the All Star game last season. Tillman is currently in AAA and Baseball America rates him as the 22nd best prospect in all of baseball.

In exchange for Dan Haren the A's recieved Brett Anderson, Carlos Gonzalez, Greg Smith, Dana Eveland and two more fringe prospects. Coming into the season Anderson was rated the 7th best prospect in baseball and as a 21 year-old he's already in the A's starting rotation. Gonzalez was considered a top 30 prospect last year and was the centerpiece of the deal that brought Matt Holliday from Colorado. Eveland and Smith both grade out as back of the rotation arms and Smith was included as a part of the Holliday deal.

A package of Bailey, Stubbs and EE doesn't even come close to approaching those two deals in terms of value. Encarnacion is only under contract through next season, he's becoming expensive and the Padres already have Kouzmanoff and Chase Headley at 3B. Given the Padres situation I'd imagine they'd have absolutely no interest in him.

If you're going to use the Bedard and Haren deals as a model for any Peavy deal, you're looking at a package something like Bailey, Alonso, Soto / Francisco and Roenicke / Fischer.

I disagree. Bailey and Stubbs are both former #1 picks who are basically ready for the Big Leagues. You're undervaluing them.

nmculbreth
05-16-2009, 03:39 PM
I don't think where they were drafted is particularly relevant to their value.

Stubbs has progressed nicely in the minors and I think he'll be an above average MLB player, but he just doesn't look like an elite prospect. Every publication I've read rates him as a borderline top 100 prospect and I'd imagine most GMs would give him a value roughly in the same ballpark. He's a nice player to have in the system but he's far from a cornerstone type player that you build your ballclub around.

In regards to Bailey, the time to deal him was two years ago. I'm not discounting his upside but given his struggles at the major league level and for that matter his struggles at AAA for the past two seasons, I don't think you're going to find a club that is willing to value him as a top ten prospect any longer.

I'm not saying that either player are without worth, I just can't imagine them being enough to bring in an elite starter like Jake Peavy.

Hondo
05-16-2009, 03:40 PM
Let's revisit some of the trades you mention...

In exchange for Erik Bedard the Orioles received Adam Jones, George Sherrill, Chris Tillman and two more fringe players. At the time of the trade Adam Jones was a top 30 prospect and he's currently posting a .370 / .426 / 1.095 line in the majors. Sherrill became the Oriole's closer and made the All Star game last season. Tillman is currently in AAA and Baseball America rates him as the 22nd best prospect in all of baseball.

In exchange for Dan Haren the A's recieved Brett Anderson, Carlos Gonzalez, Greg Smith, Dana Eveland and two more fringe prospects. Coming into the season Anderson was rated the 7th best prospect in baseball and as a 21 year-old he's already in the A's starting rotation. Gonzalez was considered a top 30 prospect last year and was the centerpiece of the deal that brought Matt Holliday from Colorado. Eveland and Smith both grade out as back of the rotation arms and Smith was included as a part of the Holliday deal.

A package of Bailey, Stubbs and EE doesn't even come close to approaching those two deals in terms of value. Encarnacion is only under contract through next season, he's becoming expensive and the Padres already have Kouzmanoff and Chase Headley at 3B. Given the Padres situation I'd imagine they'd have absolutely no interest in him.

If you're going to use the Bedard and Haren deals as a model for any Peavy deal, you're looking at a package something like Bailey, Alonso, Soto / Francisco and Roenicke / Fischer.

Well, Adam Jones is tearing it up this year isn't he...

This is his stat line:

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/players/stats?playerId=28513

So as you can see, he was no world beater before the Deal... But was a Good Prospect... The fact that he is hitting .370 this year really doesn't mean anything at this point, other than he is probably going to be a fine ball player... But at the time of the Trade, he was a prospect...

George Sherrill was a good Reliever and a nice piece but the Trade wasn't like the CC Sabethia deal that landed Matt Laporta...

I understand all the Players Danny Haren got traded for, but go look at the Top Prospects the Cardinals didn't include into the deal... Rausmus, etc...

Funny you didn't revisit the Rich Harden trade that was a joke as far as compensation...

Hondo
05-16-2009, 03:59 PM
Also, Kevin Kouzmanoff is having a terrible year and Edwin would be a Great Start to the Trade...

nmculbreth
05-16-2009, 04:03 PM
Well, Adam Jones is tearing it up this year isn't he...

This is his stat line:

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/players/stats?playerId=28513

So as you can see, he was no world beater before the Deal... But was a Good Prospect... The fact that he is hitting .370 this year really doesn't mean anything at this point, other than he is probably going to be a fine ball player... But at the time of the Trade, he was a prospect...

George Sherrill was a good Reliever and a nice piece but the Trade wasn't like the CC Sabethia deal that landed Matt Laporta...

I understand all the Players Danny Haren got traded for, but go look at the Top Prospects the Cardinals didn't include into the deal... Rausmus, etc...

Funny you didn't revisit the Rich Harden trade that was a joke as far as compensation...

A few points:

1. At the time of the trade Adam Jones was a top thirty prospect in all of baseball and Seattle's top prospect. I'm not sure how high a player needs to climb to be considered an elite talent, but I'd consider a top 30 player to be borderline elite at the very worse. YMMV.

2. Sherrill was the third best player involved in the deal.

3. Haren was traded to Arizona from Oakland, as such it's not much of a surprise that St. Louis didn't include their top prospect as part of the deal.

4. Harden's injury history depressed his trade value, I'd hardly consider his deal as the benchmark for acquiring an elite SP.

davereds24
05-16-2009, 04:05 PM
the reds are not going to commit 20% of their payroll to one guy again.

Hondo
05-16-2009, 05:18 PM
A few points:

1. At the time of the trade Adam Jones was a top thirty prospect in all of baseball and Seattle's top prospect. I'm not sure how high a player needs to climb to be considered an elite talent, but I'd consider a top 30 player to be borderline elite at the very worse. YMMV.

2. Sherrill was the third best player involved in the deal.

3. Haren was traded to Arizona from Oakland, as such it's not much of a surprise that St. Louis didn't include their top prospect as part of the deal.

4. Harden's injury history depressed his trade value, I'd hardly consider his deal as the benchmark for acquiring an elite SP.

Yeah I meant the Athletics... I was thinking way ahead when he was traded from the Cardinals to the Athletics... Right Trade, wrong team...

Brutus
05-16-2009, 05:29 PM
Let's revisit some of the trades you mention...

In exchange for Erik Bedard the Orioles received Adam Jones, George Sherrill, Chris Tillman and two more fringe players. At the time of the trade Adam Jones was a top 30 prospect and he's currently posting a .370 / .426 / 1.095 line in the majors. Sherrill became the Oriole's closer and made the All Star game last season. Tillman is currently in AAA and Baseball America rates him as the 22nd best prospect in all of baseball.

In exchange for Dan Haren the A's recieved Brett Anderson, Carlos Gonzalez, Greg Smith, Dana Eveland and two more fringe prospects. Coming into the season Anderson was rated the 7th best prospect in baseball and as a 21 year-old he's already in the A's starting rotation. Gonzalez was considered a top 30 prospect last year and was the centerpiece of the deal that brought Matt Holliday from Colorado. Eveland and Smith both grade out as back of the rotation arms and Smith was included as a part of the Holliday deal.

A package of Bailey, Stubbs and EE doesn't even come close to approaching those two deals in terms of value. Encarnacion is only under contract through next season, he's becoming expensive and the Padres already have Kouzmanoff and Chase Headley at 3B. Given the Padres situation I'd imagine they'd have absolutely no interest in him.

If you're going to use the Bedard and Haren deals as a model for any Peavy deal, you're looking at a package something like Bailey, Alonso, Soto / Francisco and Roenicke / Fischer.

I'm as big a Peavy fan as they come. His FIP and DIPS are almost a full point lower than his actual ERA, and has had a little bit of bad luck thus far considering his HR/FB ratio is a little out-of-whack at the moment.

That said, without needing to justify Peavy's value, I'd much rather the Reds focus their efforts (and their prospects) in hunting for a legitimate, middle-of-the-order hitter. That could be upgrading third (though I have nothing against Encarnacion) or it could be a starting left fielder (like Matt Holliday). I still think a platoon of Nix-Gomes would give the kind of production they need, but Holliday would be a nice fit.

Hondo
05-16-2009, 05:43 PM
I'm as big a Peavy fan as they come. His FIP and DIPS are almost a full point lower than his actual ERA, and has had a little bit of bad luck thus far considering his HR/FB ratio is a little out-of-whack at the moment.

That said, without needing to justify Peavy's value, I'd much rather the Reds focus their efforts (and their prospects) in hunting for a legitimate, middle-of-the-order hitter. That could be upgrading third (though I have nothing against Encarnacion) or it could be a starting left fielder (like Matt Holliday). I still think a platoon of Nix-Gomes would give the kind of production they need, but Holliday would be a nice fit.

As long as we're talking about 3rd, please I hope this team does not try for Adrian Beltre... I have read Posts about aquiring that guy and he although a Great Defensive Player... His offense is not the Kind we need...

I vote for aquiring Grady Sizemore to play Left.

Hondo
05-18-2009, 02:14 PM
Oh yeah, Peavy looked good last night! Wish Walt would have been wheeling and Dealing for him... Oh yeah...

Dude Rock
05-18-2009, 04:10 PM
Oh yeah, Peavy looked good last night! Wish Walt would have been wheeling and Dealing for him... Oh yeah...

Hey Koolaid!!!! Oh yeah!!!!! :D

(me too!)

Ghosts of 1990
05-18-2009, 05:19 PM
Peavy isn't worth Volquez or Bruce or any other young player..... anyone talking about that should realize he's going to be 28 soon and in a few years he'll be like Pedro Martinez. Pitchers are golden when they're studs and they're 23 or 24 or 25. By the time they're late 20's or early 30s their best days are behind them.

Peavy isn't coming to Cincinnati. No matter what. It's not worth talking about. He is likely to end up a Cardinal I believe.

PhillipsHead
05-18-2009, 05:50 PM
Peavy isn't worth Volquez or Bruce or any other young player..... anyone talking about that should realize he's going to be 28 soon and in a few years he'll be like Pedro Martinez. Pitchers are golden when they're studs and they're 23 or 24 or 25. By the time they're late 20's or early 30s their best days are behind them.

Peavy isn't coming to Cincinnati. No matter what. It's not worth talking about. He is likely to end up a Cardinal I believe.

That'd be DISASTROUS! He'd be the new divisional Oswalt to us...

Dude Rock
05-18-2009, 08:40 PM
Peavy isn't worth Volquez or Bruce or any other young player..... anyone talking about that should realize he's going to be 28 soon and in a few years he'll be like Pedro Martinez. Pitchers are golden when they're studs and they're 23 or 24 or 25. By the time they're late 20's or early 30s their best days are behind them.

Peavy isn't coming to Cincinnati. No matter what. It's not worth talking about. He is likely to end up a Cardinal I believe.

So Peavy is 27 and soon will be Pedro Martinez clone? Looks like Pedro's best years weren't when he was 23, 24 or 25. Looks like he was 28+.

Pedro Martinez:
Age 28 - 23-4......2.07 e.r.a.
Age 29 - 18-6......1.74 e.r.a.
Age 30 - 7-3........2.39 e.r.a.
Age 31 - 20-4.......2.26 e.r.a.
Age 32 - 14-4.......2.22
Age 33 - 16-9.......3.90
Age 34 - 15-8.......2.82

3,117 career K's.

Looks like Peavy has 7 good years ahead him. Let's make that deal. :D

Hondo
05-19-2009, 04:38 PM
So Peavy is 27 and soon will be Pedro Martinez clone? Looks like Pedro's best years weren't when he was 23, 24 or 25. Looks like he was 28+.

Pedro Martinez:
Age 28 - 23-4......2.07 e.r.a.
Age 29 - 18-6......1.74 e.r.a.
Age 30 - 7-3........2.39 e.r.a.
Age 31 - 20-4.......2.26 e.r.a.
Age 32 - 14-4.......2.22
Age 33 - 16-9.......3.90
Age 34 - 15-8.......2.82

3,117 career K's.

Looks like Peavy has 7 good years ahead him. Let's make that deal. :D


That's all I want... To feel like we have a Dominant Team.