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View Full Version : Matt Maloney has pitched better than Homer has in Louisville this year



fearofpopvol1
05-16-2009, 08:18 PM
Stats don't lie.

http://louisville.bats.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?n=Homer%20Bailey&pos=P&sid=t416&t=p_pbp&pid=456701

&

http://louisville.bats.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?n=Matt%20Maloney&pos=P&sid=t416&t=p_pbp&pid=476011

It is pretty close overall...but the most notable stats are that Maloney has given up fewer jacks (3 compared to Homer's 9) and has gone longer in his stats than Homer has. He's also given up 5 walks on the year compared to Homer's 15. We're also talking a 1.15 WHIP for Maloney compared to Homer's 1.40.

If you want to say Bailey has the higher upside or best TOR potential, sure. But, Maloney has pitched better this year than Homer has as the stats show.

Superdude
05-16-2009, 09:19 PM
Is anyone arguing that? Other than that 15K gem, I think everyone expected a little more out of Homer so far this year

REDblooded
05-17-2009, 08:57 AM
Good. Bring him up. Reds need a long reliever.

Brutus
05-17-2009, 04:27 PM
Stats don't lie.

http://louisville.bats.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?n=Homer%20Bailey&pos=P&sid=t416&t=p_pbp&pid=456701

&

http://louisville.bats.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?n=Matt%20Maloney&pos=P&sid=t416&t=p_pbp&pid=476011

It is pretty close overall...but the most notable stats are that Maloney has given up fewer jacks (3 compared to Homer's 9) and has gone longer in his stats than Homer has. He's also given up 5 walks on the year compared to Homer's 15. We're also talking a 1.15 WHIP for Maloney compared to Homer's 1.40.

If you want to say Bailey has the higher upside or best TOR potential, sure. But, Maloney has pitched better this year than Homer has as the stats show.

I've been very impressed with the K/BB ratio shown by Maloney this year, and equally perplexed as to why his production has not garnered a bit more attention. His FIP (2.77) is even more impressive, and indicative IMHO of just how well he's pitched.

dougdirt
05-17-2009, 04:29 PM
I've been very impressed with the K/BB ratio shown by Maloney this year, and equally perplexed as to why his production has not garnered a bit more attention. His FIP (2.77) is even more impressive, and indicative IMHO of just how well he's pitched.

Likely because his stuff just doesn't seem like it will translate to the majors well. So despite good numbers, no one is overly excited about him getting to Cincinnati where the expectations for him are likely a #4/5 type of pitcher.

fearofpopvol1
05-17-2009, 04:32 PM
Is anyone arguing that? Other than that 15K gem, I think everyone expected a little more out of Homer so far this year

I think it's relevant to bring up since many posters here live and die by each one of Homer's starts. It's still early in the season, but I think there have been enough starts to at least throw it out there. Particularly since many people feel like Homer is a savior of sorts and Maloney is seen as a AAAA pitcher.

Brutus
05-17-2009, 04:50 PM
Likely because his stuff just doesn't seem like it will translate to the majors well. So despite good numbers, no one is overly excited about him getting to Cincinnati where the expectations for him are likely a #4/5 type of pitcher.

I know he's not supposed to have overpowering stuff, or more specifically, really any 'out' pitches.

But the old saying is that AAA production is usually relatively indicative of Major League prospects, especially for strikeouts and walks. I don't think anyone would see Maloney as a top-of-the-rotation type of pitcher, but that kind of production at the major league level would be a heck of a 4/5 starter.

dougdirt
05-17-2009, 05:02 PM
I know he's not supposed to have overpowering stuff, or more specifically, really any 'out' pitches.

But the old saying is that AAA production is usually relatively indicative of Major League prospects, especially for strikeouts and walks. I don't think anyone would see Maloney as a top-of-the-rotation type of pitcher, but that kind of production at the major league level would be a heck of a 4/5 starter.

Sure, but he won't have that kind of production in the Majors... Maloney is a guy if he keeps his ERA in the majors under 5.00, I would take it. At least if he pitched half of his games in GABP. He doesn't have the stuff to miss bats in the majors on a consistent basis.

cincyinco
05-17-2009, 05:20 PM
Sure, but he won't have that kind of production in the Majors... Maloney is a guy if he keeps his ERA in the majors under 5.00, I would tskr it. At least if he pitched half of his games in GABP. He doesn't have the stuff to miss bats in the majors on a consistent basis.

I'm pretty sure they said the same about Jamie moyer too.

I think malony can be good, but he would need time and patience to adjust. About a year at MLB to see any type of quality results. I think he would struggle initially, just like he did in AAA.

dougdirt
05-17-2009, 05:25 PM
I'm pretty sure they said the same about Jamie moyer too.

I think malony can be good, but he would need time and patience to adjust. About a year at MLB to see any type of quality results. I think he would struggle initially, just like he did in AAA.

Maybe so, but for every Moyer there are 500 soft tossers who couldn't get it done. I think if Maloney struggles initially at the MLB level he won't get another chance. He is already 25 years old and if he doesn't get to the majors this year, he will be 26 at the start of next year. The odds just aren't with guys who debut at that age and struggle initially.

fearofpopvol1
05-17-2009, 05:56 PM
I think at the very least...the Reds should be trying to move Maloney while he has value. His value is probably at an all time high right now. There are definitely teams that could and would insert him into their rotation right now.

dougdirt
05-17-2009, 05:58 PM
I think at the very least...the Reds should be trying to move Maloney while he has value. His value is probably at an all time high right now. There are definitely teams that could and would insert him into their rotation right now.

A team like San Diego or Seattle would benefit from adding him to their team. He could have a good run in a larger ballpark where his flyball tendencies and non strikeouts won't hurt him as much.

SMcGavin
05-17-2009, 06:07 PM
I'm excited about Maloney. Been banging that drum a long time.

But at this point there isn't a lot left to discuss about him. There is only one more question left about him and he can't answer it in AAA. Eventually he'll get his shot, whether here or somewhere else, and we'll see what happens. I tend to think he's not going to forget how to strike people out once he gets to the bigs - but I've been wrong before. We shall see.

For what it's worth, his brother in arms in the "great minor league numbers but supposedly not MLB-caliber stuff" club is Danny Herrera, and he's been excellent in the majors.

dougdirt
05-17-2009, 06:11 PM
I'm excited about Maloney. Been banging that drum a long time.

But at this point there isn't a lot left to discuss about him. There is only one more question left about him and he can't answer it in AAA. Eventually he'll get his shot, whether here or somewhere else, and we'll see what happens. I tend to think he's not going to forget how to strike people out once he gets to the bigs - but I've been wrong before. We shall see.

For what it's worth, his brother in arms in the "great minor league numbers but supposedly not MLB-caliber stuff" club is Danny Herrera, and he's been excellent in the majors.

Herrera can have the manager pick the spots where he faces favorable match ups. Starters don't get that luxury. Still, Herrera is rocking a career 1.61 WHIP as a reliever. I am not sure thats excellent. The strikeout numbers have been good though.

Really though, its not whether he will or won't forget how to strike batters out, its whether or not hitters can put his stuff in play more often.

SMcGavin
05-17-2009, 06:24 PM
Herrera can have the manager pick the spots where he faces favorable match ups. Starters don't get that luxury. Still, Herrera is rocking a career 1.61 WHIP as a reliever. I am not sure thats excellent. The strikeout numbers have been good though.

Really though, its not whether he will or won't forget how to strike batters out, its whether or not hitters can put his stuff in play more often.

Herrera 2008 xFIP: 3.08
Herrera 2009 xFIP: 3.77

You think Dusty's picking spots for Herrera? He's one of the lower relievers in Dusty's mind, he just sends him out there when he needs a low-leverage inning taken care of. I doubt his three inning stint last week when Arroyo got rocked was specially chosen as a spot where Herrera could succeed. I'm not concerned about his WHIP when he has faced 63 hitters this season and only two of them managed an extra base hit. You watch the games, how often does a guy hit the ball hard off of Herrera? Most hits against him are bloop singles. Hitters have a .676 OPS against him. He's been great.

dougdirt
05-17-2009, 06:26 PM
Herrera 2008 xFIP: 3.08
Herrera 2009 xFIP: 3.77

You think Dusty's picking spots for Herrera? He's one of the lower relievers in Dusty's mind, he just sends him out there when he needs a low-leverage inning taken care of. I doubt his three inning stint last week when Arroyo got rocked was specially chosen as a spot where Herrera could succeed. I'm not concerned about his WHIP when he has faced 63 hitters this season and only two of them managed an extra base hit. You watch the games, how often does a guy hit the ball hard off of Herrera? Most hits against him are bloop singles. Hitters have a .676 OPS against him. He's been great.

If we don't have a sample large enough for his WHIP then why do we have a large enough sample for xFIP or OPS? And yeah, I do think in his short career, for the most part, his spots have been picked for him.

SMcGavin
05-17-2009, 07:18 PM
If we don't have a sample large enough for his WHIP then why do we have a large enough sample for xFIP or OPS? And yeah, I do think in his short career, for the most part, his spots have been picked for him.

Small sample is a legit claim, I was disagreeing with your assertion that he hasn't been that good during that small sample. What I'm saying is that even when you take into account his high WHIP, he's still been very good.

The "spots being picked for him" argument is a disappointing one because you can use it to downplay any success the guy has. His first MLB appearance was with the bases loaded against the eventual champs. He pitched three innings in a game last week. He's used as a back of the bullpen disposable arm, not some commodity to be protected. He's in the same role a thousand unproven bullpen arms have been before him - go out there and pitch when we don't want to use our top guys.

Back to my original point, Maloney isn't Herrera and DRH's success doesn't guarantee anything for Maloney. But if Herrera keeps it up, I wonder if the continued success of another "low stuff" guy will cause some to think twice on Maloney.

TC81190
05-18-2009, 01:23 AM
Arroyo couldn't break glass with his fastball and he does alright.

I think that's probably what Maloney is. A left handed Bronson Arroyo.

ian_madden
05-18-2009, 01:53 AM
I think at the very least...the Reds should be trying to move Maloney while he has value. His value is probably at an all time high right now. There are definitely teams that could and would insert him into their rotation right now.

I love this idea, he does have high value, and I think that he could be a major leaguer for another team. Not us, not now. He will be apart of a mid season trade to get us another piece. remember, we are not a finished product yet. When we don't make a move in the rotation, don't be upset. If we move up Homer again, it devalues Maloney, if we move Maloney up, it devalues him. Lets keep that aspect of this team the same. There is no need to worry about the starting rotation.

Just pray hard that the "Harang curse" from last year against San Diego doesn't happen again.

smitty
05-18-2009, 01:59 AM
Maloney has a bigger variety of pitches he can throw and thats what is making him into a better pitcher... his sinker has good late movement to get batters to strike out... I like Maloney better than Bailey but that just my opinion

ian_madden
05-18-2009, 02:06 AM
I think that DRH has done great for us this year. I would like to see him more in pressure situations. His stuff is like nothing that many major leaguers have seen in years. But I also think that he needs to be used when his stuff is moving. If he is warming up, and its not moving, how hard is it for him to "rewarm up". He throws in the lower 80s.

Also, You can't compare DRH to Maloney, Maloney is a starter. He will see the lineup several times before he is done for the day. If DRH can get people out with 2 of his pitches for a week, then use 1 of his other crazy pitches to get some others out for the next week, WOW!

GIDP
05-18-2009, 02:14 AM
DRH does so good because its so hard to put a swing on a ball going so slow and breaking. Hes a case where slow actually is a very good thing.

Jpup
05-18-2009, 09:35 AM
Maloney should be on the Reds and should have been since, at least, last season. He deserves a shot. Homer needs to stay in Louisville until September.

flash
05-18-2009, 09:52 AM
Saw where Dusty mentioned needing a left hander to face the Phillies. Maloney could be called up to replace Masset against them.

SMcGavin
05-18-2009, 10:52 AM
Arroyo couldn't break glass with his fastball and he does alright.

I think that's probably what Maloney is. A left handed Bronson Arroyo.

I've made that comp before and I think it really fits. Arroyo from 06-08 had 7.0 K/9, 2.7 BB/9, with some flyball tendencies. That's about where I'd expect Maloney to be once he gets his footing in the bigs. Another possible similarity is that Arroyo didn't find his way full-time into an MLB rotation until he was 27 (though he had some on and off work earlier in his career).

GIDP
05-18-2009, 11:34 AM
Maloney is on the 40 man, Id bring him up

Local guy making his MLB debut in cincy. Could set up for a disaster or a very fun night to watch.

Dude Rock
05-18-2009, 12:51 PM
DRH does so good because its so hard to put a swing on a ball going so slow and breaking. Hes a case where slow actually is a very good thing.

I'm with you. I love this guy. So many people are in love with the 95mph fastball. I like watching guys like Herrera actually pitch with offspeed and junk pitches. Plus the dude is only 5'6"......Fred Normanesque! Gotta love it.

I've been on the Maloney bandwagon for awhile too. Maybe because I just get annoyed at all the Bailey bandwagoners wanting to promote Homer even though his numbers are mediocre/average or worse in triple A. I will never understand that. Plus, Homer has like a plus 6.00 e.r.a. in 16 starts or more in the majors. Maloney is another guy that doesn't throw hard, but knows how to pitch. It worked for Greg Maddux and a whole host of other pitchers.

GIDP
05-18-2009, 01:14 PM
Maloney pitches like a power pitcher though.

M2
05-18-2009, 01:29 PM
Maloney's doing what he needs to do to merit a shot at the next level. He's a FB pitcher, so he needs to limit the BBs in order to avoid the dread three-run HR. From what I gather, he's also mixing his pitches well.

Bailey's got the same problem he's had for years. He's hard to hit when he's wild, but he loses movement when he tries to place the ball the strikezone. He hasn't figured out how to retain movement and hit the zone. That might be lack of physical maturity or 10-cent head syndrome or both. Right now he's an unremarkable pitcher in AAA. Normally a 23-year-old kid in those circumstances wouldn't be an issue. The problem with the Reds and Bailey is the club can't give him until he's 25 to work it out in the minors (as perhaps Maloney is doing) and then promote him.

GOYA
05-18-2009, 02:18 PM
Bailey's got the same problem he's had for years. He's hard to hit when he's wild, but he loses movement when he tries to place the ball the strikezone. He hasn't figured out how to retain movement and hit the zone.

IMO, that is a poor description of how Homer is pitching. Here are his last 4 starts, pitches thrown - strikes:

Apr 26 - 118-79 67%
May 2 - 106-78 74%
May 8 - 114-75 66%
May 13 - 86-58 67%

To me, Homer appears to have two problems.
1. He starts games with no idea which of his pitches are working for him and it takes a while to figure it out.
2. Lefthanded batters are killing him

This season:
LHB - .369
RHB - .167

There have been times where he dominated LHB and I don't know why. It could be that he needs a certain pitch working to get LHB out and if he doesn't have it, he gets creamed.

M2
05-18-2009, 03:49 PM
IMO, that is a poor description of how Homer is pitching. Here are his last 4 starts, pitches thrown - strikes:

Apr 26 - 118-79 67%
May 2 - 106-78 74%
May 8 - 114-75 66%
May 13 - 86-58 67%

To me, Homer appears to have two problems.
1. He starts games with no idea which of his pitches are working for him and it takes a while to figure it out.
2. Lefthanded batters are killing him

This season:
LHB - .369
RHB - .167

There have been times where he dominated LHB and I don't know why. It could be that he needs a certain pitch working to get LHB out and if he doesn't have it, he gets creamed.

I don't think game-to-game strike percentages tell you much in this case. My guess is Homer's 15 K game was the result of being effectively wild, a rare night where he was able to start the ball in the zone and then have it take a late dart out of the zone.

His larger problem is that more often he's ineffectively wild, which gets him behind in the count against more experienced hitters and then they pound him when he tries to place the ball in the zone for a strike. The two don't work exclusive of each other. Rather they work hand-in-hand. What it leads to is, in AAA and the majors, is too many baserunners and too much power surrendered.

FWIW, I completely agree that he seems to walk into every game not knowing what he's going to get from himself. That even seems to be the case inning-to-inning and batter-to-batter. It also might indicate he's got to prepare better for his opponents.

IIRC, he hasn't had notable LHB problems in the past. So this might be an anomaly or it might be something new. Hard to say at this juncture.

fearofpopvol1
05-18-2009, 04:34 PM
Maloney's doing what he needs to do to merit a shot at the next level. He's a FB pitcher, so he needs to limit the BBs in order to avoid the dread three-run HR. From what I gather, he's also mixing his pitches well.

Bailey's got the same problem he's had for years. He's hard to hit when he's wild, but he loses movement when he tries to place the ball the strikezone. He hasn't figured out how to retain movement and hit the zone. That might be lack of physical maturity or 10-cent head syndrome or both. Right now he's an unremarkable pitcher in AAA. Normally a 23-year-old kid in those circumstances wouldn't be an issue. The problem with the Reds and Bailey is the club can't give him until he's 25 to work it out in the minors (as perhaps Maloney is doing) and then promote him.

Yep...and Maloney has hardly walked any batters at all this year. He's averaging less than 1 walk per game. Not too shabby.

Bumstead
05-18-2009, 05:55 PM
I would rather have Maloney in the "long relief" role than Masset. He may not be a better pitcher initially, but I think he has a chance to be a decent middle relief man for the Reds. Plus, if he pitches well, the Reds might be able to add him to a trade for a SS or LF at the deadline or for next season. We couldn't trade Masset for a can of pringles...

Obviously, I am not a believer that Maloney's numbers at AAA will translate to anything even league average in the majors. Comparing him to a 249 game winner is pretty far out there. Jamie Moyer was already established in the majors long before Maloney's age and Moyer is clearly the exception to the rule on these types of pitchers. Maloney's age and the fact that he has spent parts of the last 3 seasons at AAA would not suggest that he is anything more than a LOOGY waiting to happen IMHO.

Please bring him up and prove me wrong; or right...either way, we can quit hearing about how great he is. Who is right if he turns out to be as "good" as Danny Herrera??? Do we need a poll for that?? :rolleyes:

Bum

M2
05-18-2009, 06:20 PM
Hard to complain about what Masset's done in a Reds uniform to date.

As for long relief, the job doesn't exist. I believe it's been ages since a reliever average anywhere near 2 IP an appearance. The reason why is because relievers have to pitch frequently in a world where starters don't throw complete games, meaning that being able to pitch often is more important than being able to throw multiple innings.

Bumstead
05-18-2009, 06:31 PM
Well, long relief, middle relief, LOOGY...all the same...just means you come in early in the game to take one for the team or for 1-2 lefties and you go out of the game. That's what Masset does, right?

M2
05-18-2009, 06:37 PM
Well, long relief, middle relief, LOOGY...all the same...just means you come in early in the game to take one for the team or for 1-2 lefties and you go out of the game. That's what Masset does, right?

They aren't supposed to be the same, but through the filter of not-primary-setup-nor-the-closer I suppose they're all the same. Masset's a RHP who tends to throw about 1.1 IP per appearance (which I guess makes him a modern long reliever) . He's got a 1.69 ERA in 32 IP for the Reds during the past two seasons so I don't imagine he's in much danger of losing his job if he's healthy.

Kingspoint
05-18-2009, 08:19 PM
Homer and Matt can keep pitching, as a pitcher that's thrown worse than either of them this year, Ramon Ramirez, gets the callup to take the place of Masset. I'm not against this move, as I'm not close enough to the situation,....heck, I'm a light-year's distance from the situation, to know what the best scenario is for making this move. Since this version of the REDS' front office makes the right move the majority of the times, I have to go with it. You're never always right, but you hope to be right often enough to make winners out of the organization, and I think that's what's been happening.

Good luck, Ramon, and keep working hard, Homer and Matt. Your time will come. Be ready for it.

kfm
05-18-2009, 10:01 PM
I would rather have Maloney in the "long relief" role than Masset. He may not be a better pitcher initially, but I think he has a chance to be a decent middle relief man for the Reds. Plus, if he pitches well, the Reds might be able to add him to a trade for a SS or LF at the deadline or for next season. We couldn't trade Masset for a can of pringles...

Obviously, I am not a believer that Maloney's numbers at AAA will translate to anything even league average in the majors. Comparing him to a 249 game winner is pretty far out there. Jamie Moyer was already established in the majors long before Maloney's age and Moyer is clearly the exception to the rule on these types of pitchers. Maloney's age and the fact that he has spent parts of the last 3 seasons at AAA would not suggest that he is anything more than a LOOGY waiting to happen IMHO.

Please bring him up and prove me wrong; or right...either way, we can quit hearing about how great he is. Who is right if he turns out to be as "good" as Danny Herrera??? Do we need a poll for that?? :rolleyes:

Bum

Interesting post. Just curious why you believe Masset has no value. With the state of relief pitching in the majors, based upon what he has done with the Reds I would think he would have some value greater than Pringles. He seems to be growing into more of a late inning guy and Dusty has used him in critical situations a few times and he has excelled.

Bumstead
05-19-2009, 01:57 AM
maybe fritos? :p: Masset's hurt; that's why they should bring up Maloney, maybe he will pitch well and they can trade him...He's a starter which I would think would be more valuable than a middle inning relief pitcher who has had a good run so far this year.

You really think we can land something valuable with Masset?

Bum

camisadelgolf
05-19-2009, 01:15 PM
Maloney, like Herrera, gets players out because of his ability to throw various types of pitches for strikes, which is the type of thing that dominates lesser hitters. At the Major League level, though, the hitters are so much better that it wouldn't take long at all for Maloney to get knocked around a bit. This is because Maloney's 'out' pitches aren't nearly as good as Herrera's. However, if Maloney is having a particularly-good day with his command, he can survive in the Major Leagues, but the same could be said for a lot of players who are toiling in AAA. I'm excited about Maloney, but I still think it's unrealistic to expect him to be more than a #4 starter.

Kingspoint
05-19-2009, 07:25 PM
I've got to disagree there, camis. I think Herrera is right now and will continue to be a fine major league pitcher. Both pitchers are going to be very productive for us from the Hamilton trade.

camisadelgolf
05-19-2009, 08:00 PM
I've got to disagree there, camis. I think Herrera is right now and will continue to be a fine major league pitcher. Both pitchers are going to be very productive for us from the Hamilton trade.
I'm not sure where the disagreement is. I was trying to imply that Herrera will have a better career than Maloney because Herrera actually has the stuff to get hitters out, but even if Herrera were to have lesser stuff, he could still dominate hitters in the lower leagues.

kfm
05-19-2009, 09:57 PM
maybe fritos? :p: Masset's hurt; that's why they should bring up Maloney, maybe he will pitch well and they can trade him...He's a starter which I would think would be more valuable than a middle inning relief pitcher who has had a good run so far this year.

You really think we can land something valuable with Masset?

Bum

I think his value is growing. I am far more interested in keeping Masset than trading him away. I don't think you can get a kings ransom for him, but if he continues to pitch the way he has his value will continue to rise. Come the trade deadline, he could be a piece of a deal that another team who needs bullpen help could use.

RED VAN HOT
05-19-2009, 10:27 PM
Maloney appears to be a player who figures out each new level. His excellent control bodes well for doing this at the ML level as well. IMO he will be a good ML pitcher, but he will need a season or two to adjust. I can't see the Reds allowing such a learning curve. It does seem to me that his ground ball tendencies have improved this year. If he is given a shot this year, he is not likely to get more than five starts or so to excel unless there are major injuries in the rotation.

San Diego and Oakland would be excellent places for him. They are pitcher's parks and the teams are rebuilding.

fearofpopvol1
05-27-2009, 06:13 PM
Not to beat a dead horse, but this continues to be relevant IMO.

Matt had another really solid outing today.

traderumor
05-27-2009, 06:19 PM
San Diego and Oakland would be excellent places for him. They are pitcher's parks and the teams are rebuilding.So, are they just going to let him pitch at home?

dougdirt
05-27-2009, 06:52 PM
So, are they just going to let him pitch at home?

No, but say Oakland gets him.... he also gets to pitch in Seattle and Anaheim a lot. Of course he has to go to Texas, but I think that still gives an advantage.

nate
05-27-2009, 07:05 PM
I don't even know how to ask the question I want to ask but I'll give it a shot. Does Maloney have the capability to become a good ML pitcher for the Reds?

I don't even know if that was the question. Maybe it's more, what would it take for him to get over the hump and pitch in the bigs?

GOYA
05-27-2009, 07:22 PM
I think he does. He would have growing pains but he could be successful. There are plenty of MLB pitchers that don't have overpowering fastballs. Most of those guys don't have the control with the curve that Maloney has. He just needs a catcher that would call a good game for him.

Dude Rock
05-27-2009, 11:11 PM
I think he does. He would have growing pains but he could be successful. There are plenty of MLB pitchers that don't have overpowering fastballs. Most of those guys don't have the control with the curve that Maloney has. He just needs a catcher that would call a good game for him.

Bronson Arroyo. :p:

OnBaseMachine
05-28-2009, 02:23 PM
Matt Maloney: Like Roemer, Matt Maloney is having success in 2009 despite non-sexy numbers. The 25-year-old southpaw has now spent parts of three seasons in triple-A but has yet to receive a call-up to the Majors because of the Redsí pitching depth. This season, Maloney has walked just seven batters in more than 50 innings of work and heís struck out 41 (7.19 K/9) so he deserves a look in the near future. With a repertoire that includes a fastball that works in the high 80s (and tops out around 91-92), as well as a plus changeup and two average breaking balls, Maloney has more than enough to survive as a solid No. 4 starter in the National League.

http://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/index.php/minor-impacts-may-28

GIDP
05-28-2009, 02:25 PM
I saw that changeup the other day in his start and it did look good for sure. I think he really does have a good shot at being a solid pitcher in the majors. 4.50 ERA and not kill you with short outings.

traderumor
05-28-2009, 03:26 PM
No, but say Oakland gets him.... he also gets to pitch in Seattle and Anaheim a lot. Of course he has to go to Texas, but I think that still gives an advantage.What I was getting at is that recommending that a pitcher might fit in a "pitcher's park" applies to anyone. Why would a team with a pitcher's park look to Matt Maloney as a fit because he needs a pitcher's park to be effective when they would have 5 Matt Maloney's already in their system? It is the same flawed logic behind all the recommendations to trade Eric Milton to any team with a pitcher's park. I hope GMs do not think like that.

dougdirt
05-28-2009, 03:48 PM
What I was getting at is that recommending that a pitcher might fit in a "pitcher's park" applies to anyone. Why would a team with a pitcher's park look to Matt Maloney as a fit because he needs a pitcher's park to be effective when they would have 5 Matt Maloney's already in their system? It is the same flawed logic behind all the recommendations to trade Eric Milton to any team with a pitcher's park. I hope GMs do not think like that.

Well they should. Eric Milton would do significantly better in a division like the AL West where 3 out of the 4 parks surpress HR's, than in a division or even a home park that allows them at a much higher rate. Eric Milton allowing 40 HR in the NL Central may only be Eric Milton allowing 30-35 HR in the AL West. Thats a significant difference (probably to the tune of 8-12 ER). That difference is the same as a 4.50 ERA to a 4.10 or 3.90 ERA over 180 innings pitched.

traderumor
05-28-2009, 04:20 PM
Well they should. Eric Milton would do significantly better in a division like the AL West where 3 out of the 4 parks surpress HR's, than in a division or even a home park that allows them at a much higher rate. Eric Milton allowing 40 HR in the NL Central may only be Eric Milton allowing 30-35 HR in the AL West. Thats a significant difference (probably to the tune of 8-12 ER). That difference is the same as a 4.50 ERA to a 4.10 or 3.90 ERA over 180 innings pitched.
The point is that a pitcher's park makes everyone's numbers better, so why promote sending below average pitchers to pitcher's parks, since their park adjusted numbers will still be worse because they are not a good pitcher? In other words, if Milton's numbers were better in a pitcher's park, so would be a better pitcher's. In other words, the park doesn't make anyone a better pitcher, it merely makes their numbers deceptive for analysis.

dougdirt
05-28-2009, 04:44 PM
The point is that a pitcher's park makes everyone's numbers better, so why promote sending below average pitchers to pitcher's parks, since their park adjusted numbers will still be worse because they are not a good pitcher? In other words, if Milton's numbers were better in a pitcher's park, so would be a better pitcher's. In other words, the park doesn't make anyone a better pitcher, it merely makes their numbers deceptive for analysis.

Well the point is more so that certain parks allow flyball pitchers to perform better. Maloney isn't nearly as bad as Milton is, but he is a flyball guy whose stuff doesn't project to be swing and miss type stuff. That means lots of fly balls. That type of pitcher is going to play better in certain parks than others. Pitchers parks are one thing, but some parks favor flyball pitchers more than others.

Parks can make guys better or worse, but guys who get more grounders are likely to be more successful than guys who get more flyballs given same rates in walks and strikeouts.

RED VAN HOT
05-28-2009, 05:18 PM
I grant that every team prefers ground ball pitchers and power arms. Every team would like to have hitters with sufficient power to clear the bases in any park. The number of such players are limited, however, especially to small market teams. Most ML players have a wart or two. Lets try it this way.

Team A plays in a hitter's park and has a pitcher that gives up a relatively high number of fly ball HR's.

Team B plays in a large park and has a hitter who records a relatively high number of long outs.

Would it not be in the best interests of both teams to exchange players? Wouldn't each player have more value playing half of his games in the other team's park?

traderumor
05-28-2009, 07:13 PM
Well the point is more so that certain parks allow flyball pitchers to perform better. Maloney isn't nearly as bad as Milton is, but he is a flyball guy whose stuff doesn't project to be swing and miss type stuff. That means lots of fly balls. That type of pitcher is going to play better in certain parks than others. Pitchers parks are one thing, but some parks favor flyball pitchers more than others.

Parks can make guys better or worse, but guys who get more grounders are likely to be more successful than guys who get more flyballs given same rates in walks and strikeouts.That sounds like something Dan O'Brien would try to sell for an acquisition.

Mario-Rijo
05-28-2009, 07:29 PM
The point is that a pitcher's park makes everyone's numbers better, so why promote sending below average pitchers to pitcher's parks, since their park adjusted numbers will still be worse because they are not a good pitcher? In other words, if Milton's numbers were better in a pitcher's park, so would be a better pitcher's. In other words, the park doesn't make anyone a better pitcher, it merely makes their numbers deceptive for analysis.

Because not everyone can go out and acquire said good pitcher's? That would be my 1st thought. If you can get similiar production out of a lesser arm then ultimately it makes sense to give up less to get said similiar production.

It's the same reason it would make sense for the Reds to pay less for lesser power because you don't need say Dunns raw power to hit 40 HR's (or in the neighborhood) in GABP or the NL Central Parks IMO.

traderumor
05-28-2009, 07:47 PM
Because not everyone can go out and acquire said good pitcher's? That would be my 1st thought. If you can get similiar production out of a lesser arm then ultimately it makes sense to give up less to get said similiar production.

It's the same reason it would make sense for the Reds to pay less for lesser power because you don't need say Dunns raw power to hit 40 HR's (or in the neighborhood) in GABP or the NL Central Parks IMO.Which is why it makes even less sense to go outside the organization for the Matt Maloney's of the world when you probably have half a dozen similar pitchers in your own organization. I really don't see a dominant ballpark style throughout the major leagues (like the astroturf era) that warrants constructing teams/rosters with these kind of minor factors in mind. I think it is mostly just trying to find any justification for the value of a marginal player.

GOYA
05-28-2009, 07:51 PM
Maloney has given up 3 HR in 58.1 innings.

Slugger field Outfield Dimensions:
Left 325 feet
Center 405 feet
Right 340 feet

GABP
Left: 328 feet
Center: 404 feet
Right: 325 feet

Maloney is a lefty and all 3 of his HRs allowed have been by RHB.

Granted he would not be as successful in the bigs but he should still be successful

Mario-Rijo
05-28-2009, 09:53 PM
Which is why it makes even less sense to go outside the organization for the Matt Maloney's of the world when you probably have half a dozen similar pitchers in your own organization. I really don't see a dominant ballpark style throughout the major leagues (like the astroturf era) that warrants constructing teams/rosters with these kind of minor factors in mind. I think it is mostly just trying to find any justification for the value of a marginal player.

I see your point of view but disagree with your view of the player. Go find those half a dozen guys as good as Maloney in every other organization. As far as I know the guy has one flaw that may or may not not make him as productive as one would like in a top 3 HR park in baseball. That does not make him marginal that makes him a poor mans Chris Young, IMO. A usable back end starter who can be a 3 in an ideal environment.

Kc61
06-01-2009, 01:06 PM
Maloney with 6 Ks in three shutout innings so far today. At this point, the Reds are making a mistake keeping him at AAA. Any AAA starting pitching prospect this hot should be in the major leagues -- even if the success is just a hot streak, the major league team can benefit now.

Bring him up or trade him promptly, IMO.

Dude Rock
06-01-2009, 01:24 PM
Maloney with 6 Ks in three shutout innings so far today. At this point, the Reds are making a mistake keeping him at AAA. Any AAA starting pitching prospect this hot should be in the major leagues -- even if the success is just a hot streak, the major league team can benefit now.

Bring him up or trade him promptly, IMO.

5 shut out innings now, 0 walks, 7 K's and his e.r.a. is down to 2.13.

What would be the harm in giving him a major league start? Geez, he's a lefty and we have no lefty starters.

Edit: Stubbs hit his 2nd HR of the season to put them up 1-0.

SMcGavin
06-01-2009, 01:27 PM
5 shut out innings now, 0 walks, 7 K's and his e.r.a. is down to 2.13.

What would be the harm in giving him a major league start? Geez, he's a lefty and we have no lefty starters.

And Owings is chugging along with a 5.10 ERA, 5.29 xFIP. Maloney is doing what he needs to do though, he is putting up numbers so good that they can't be ignored.

OnBaseMachine
06-01-2009, 01:31 PM
Honestly, I don't see why he can't be a left handed version of Bronson Arroyo. I'd like to see the Reds move Owings to the bullpen and give Maloney a chance.

remdog
06-01-2009, 02:12 PM
Somehow this thread reminds me of the hue and cry at Redszone to bring up Phil Dumatrait in 2007. That wasn't pretty, at all.

Rem

TRF
06-01-2009, 02:29 PM
Somehow this thread reminds me of the hue and cry at Redszone to bring up Phil Dumatrait in 2007. That wasn't pretty, at all.

Rem

Dumatrait never once posted numbers like Maloney has over the last three seasons.

fearofpopvol1
06-01-2009, 02:31 PM
An absolute gem today pitched by Maloney...

8 IP, 3 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 9 K, 100 pitches...season ERA at AAA is at 2.04! 2.04!!!

This guy deserves a shot to pitch at the bigs...whether it be in Cincinnati or elsewhere. Seriously, his value will likely never be higher than it is now. Not to mention...Owings has sucked. Push Owings to the pen and give Maloney a shot and either send Burton down or DFA Lincoln.

GOYA
06-01-2009, 02:39 PM
The only real reason to temper your enthusiasm about Maloney is that there are a lot more guys in the bigs that can crush a curveball than at AAA. But Maloney has absolutely earned a chance to find out how he can do against them.

SMcGavin
06-01-2009, 02:55 PM
Somehow this thread reminds me of the hue and cry at Redszone to bring up Phil Dumatrait in 2007. That wasn't pretty, at all.

Rem

Phil Dumatrait, AAA 2007: 5.5 K/9, 3.5 BB/9
Matt Maloney, AAA 2009: 7.8 K/9, 1.2 BB/9

Yeah they are basically the exact same!

Kc61
06-01-2009, 03:12 PM
How about this?

Reds trade either Arroyo or Harang -- whomever they like the least right now -- for Jermaine Dye and a solid minor league prospect.

Reds bring up Maloney as the fourth starter.

Big upgrade on offense. Risky for Reds pitching, but two key assets (Cueto and Volquez) retained. Should be pretty neutral in terms of dollars.

Chisox looking for starting pitching based on press reports of Peavy and Oswalt efforts.

Throw in Bailey if Chisox put a top minor leaguer in the deal.

Fire away.

GOYA
06-01-2009, 03:22 PM
How bout pull Maloney up for a couple of Owings' starts to get an idea of how he'll do before we do something that can't be undone?

schmidty622
06-01-2009, 03:28 PM
How bout pull Maloney up for a couple of Owings' starts to get an idea of how he'll do before we do something that can't be undone?

Because if he gets rocked his trade value takes a big hit. That is in no way the way a major league baseball team should conduct itself but I can see argument.

I'd be all for bringing him up and seeing what he's got against major league hitters.

RedLegsToday
06-01-2009, 03:36 PM
Ok, call up Maloney, move Micah Owings to first base full-time! :-)

traderumor
06-01-2009, 04:05 PM
Owings is a good hitting pitcher. I'm not sure that he is a good hitter. Throw him breaking balls low and away, and he's done.

Brutus
06-01-2009, 04:44 PM
Owings is a good hitting pitcher. I'm not sure that he is a good hitter. Throw him breaking balls low and away, and he's done.

He has a career OPS of .899. Yes, he's still toiling in the realm of 'sample size' issues. But he's got about 150 at-bats now and has carried these numbers consistently having spread the plate appearances over three seasons.

I'm not sure what he has to do to be considered better than just 'a hitting pitcher.' Rick Ankiel, after his loss in control, was believed to probably not cut it as an everyday player before his conversion. He's done pretty well for himself, and I would have to think Owings has more upside than did Ankiel.

Give him everyday at-bats and I bet he could hold an OPS over .900. If that were the case, he'd be highly successful, obviously.

He might struggle with the breaking ball, but he also is not getting a chance to hit it every day. I think over time he would figure that out.

dougdirt
06-01-2009, 04:47 PM
He has a career OPS of .899. Yes, he's still toiling in the realm of 'sample size' issues. But he's got about 150 at-bats now and has carried these numbers consistently having spread the plate appearances over three seasons.

I'm not sure what he has to do to be considered better than just 'a hitting pitcher.' Rick Ankiel, after his loss in control, was believed to probably not cut it as an everyday player before his conversion. He's done pretty well for himself, and I would have to think Owings has more upside than did Ankiel.

Give him everyday at-bats and I bet he could hold an OPS over .900. If that were the case, he'd be highly successful, obviously.

He might struggle with the breaking ball, but he also is not getting a chance to hit it every day. I think over time he would figure that out.

I doubt he could hold an OPS over .900 because he just simply doesn't have the patience to OBP .375-.400 needed to do so. While he has some pop, he isn't a .550 SLG guy as an every day player.

TRF
06-01-2009, 04:59 PM
I doubt he could hold an OPS over .900 because he just simply doesn't have the patience to OBP .375-.400 needed to do so. While he has some pop, he isn't a .550 SLG guy as an every day player.

I watched him crush a pitch against the Astros that a CF with a slightly slower foot speed, say Ankiel, would have played into a double at least.

He's got fantastic power, and I think he's giving hitting lessons to Harang, he of the .182 BA this year.

I'd love to see him start 1 game in LF.

traderumor
06-01-2009, 05:07 PM
He has a career OPS of .899. Yes, he's still toiling in the realm of 'sample size' issues. But he's got about 150 at-bats now and has carried these numbers consistently having spread the plate appearances over three seasons.

I'm not sure what he has to do to be considered better than just 'a hitting pitcher.' Rick Ankiel, after his loss in control, was believed to probably not cut it as an everyday player before his conversion. He's done pretty well for himself, and I would have to think Owings has more upside than did Ankiel.

Give him everyday at-bats and I bet he could hold an OPS over .900. If that were the case, he'd be highly successful, obviously.

He might struggle with the breaking ball, but he also is not getting a chance to hit it every day. I think over time he would figure that out.As the Brewers revealed yesterday, he is helpless against off speed pitches as long as his hitting style involves stepping in the bucket and letting 'er rip. It doesn't take long for major league pitching to expose such a bush league approach to hitting.

Mario-Rijo
06-01-2009, 05:10 PM
As the Brewers revealed yesterday, he is helpless against off speed pitches as long as his hitting style involves stepping in the bucket and letting 'er rip. It doesn't take long for major league pitching to expose such a bush league approach to hitting.

This is true he does step in the bucket awful bad. That said that PH HR he hit off of Franklin was a low and away slider that he was able to wait on & pull out of the park. He needs some work on it but he could be a really solid bat, but as DD pointed out he'd need to brush up on his patience, or should I say get some at all.

traderumor
06-01-2009, 05:17 PM
This is true he does step in the bucket awful bad. That said that PH HR he hit off of Franklin was a low and away slider that he was able to wait on & pull out of the park. He needs some work on it but he could be a really solid bat, but as DD pointed out he'd need to brush up on his patience, or should I say get some at all.I would say that Owings would have to do like Ankiel and start over his career as a hitter and spend some times in the minors learning how to take the natural ability he has, which is what we see in his pitcher's hitting, and become a hitter and become passable in fielding a position. Right now he is just a hacker. Hacker's sometimes have good results. Heck WMP used to hit balls 500 feet with his hacking.

But, the suggestions I have seen, and some seem serious, think he could just pick up a glove and play LF or 1B. While it may be something that Jimmy Bowden would try, I do not think it would be a good outcome.

membengal
06-01-2009, 05:18 PM
Ankiel spent two years in the minors working on his hitting.

If I had to guess, if Owings spent a similar time in the minors focusing exclusively on hitting, he would work on his approach to breaking stuff down and away, work on plate discipline, and come out the other side a very very useful major league hitter.

Mario-Rijo
06-01-2009, 05:24 PM
Agree with both of you. And with his arm he should/could make for an outstanding LF.

Brutus
06-01-2009, 06:01 PM
I doubt he could hold an OPS over .900 because he just simply doesn't have the patience to OBP .375-.400 needed to do so. While he has some pop, he isn't a .550 SLG guy as an every day player.

Well, .900 is probably a little lofty, but more than the number itself I more or less meant he could put up some gaudy numbers as an everyday hitter. Would it be that high? Maybe not. But .820 to .850 is not at all unrealistic, and that would most certainly be good for any hitter let alone a converted pitcher.

He too is not even in the 'prime' of his career. Given another 1,000 at-bats to work on patience, discipline and the ability to hit a bona fide breaking ball, I would have to think he has the potential to be something special with the bat.