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View Full Version : Testing the "Reds Play Poorly in Front of Large Crowds" Theory..



Edskin
05-19-2009, 07:46 AM
I've decided to try and take common RZ perceptions and subject them to statistical analysis. My theory about the Reds struggling to win "marathon" games was proven false-- by a wide margin, they've actually done quite well.

My latest project was to test the theory that the Reds play especially poorly in front of large crowds at the GAB. You hear this refrain several times a year from a wide range of folks here at RZ.

Here are the paramaters and what I found.

I took 2005-2008: I chose to start in 05 because I figured by then, the "newness" of the park had completely worn off and people were no longer going just to see the new digs.

I defined a "large crowd" as 30,000 or more.

Here are my findings:

2005

Overall home record: 42-39 (51.8%)
Record with large crowds: 8-5 (61.5%)

2006

Overall home record: 42-39 (51.8%)
Record with large crowds: 10-12 (45.4%)

2007

Overall home record: 39-42 (48.1%)
Record with large crowds: 12-12 (50%)

2008

Overall home record: 43-38 (53%)
Record with large crowds: 12-11 (52.1%)

Overall

Overall Record 2005-2008: 166-158 (51.2%)
Overall Record from 2005-2006 with Large Crowds: 42-40 (52.5%)

Theory.....BUSTED! :)

oneupper
05-19-2009, 08:55 AM
Nice Job, Ed.
How do the redskins play in front of big crowds? :)

Homer Bailey
05-19-2009, 09:13 AM
I think the reason why RZ'ers say we play poorly in front of large crowds is because the large crowds are typically when we are coming off a big win streak, and are expecting to win the next one with the big crowd. That causes us to only remember the losses, and not necessarily the wins.

Edskin
05-19-2009, 10:07 AM
Nice Job, Ed.
How do the redskins play in front of big crowds? :)

In the NFL, crowds are always big---maybe we should try and NOT let anyone in the stadium and see if that works :)

And just to clarify....as our record indicates, we aren't necessarily "good" in front of large crowds, it's just that there doesn't seem to be any real difference if we play in front of big crowds or sparse crowds. I guess I could go back and see how we do in front of "bad" crowds-- say, 16,000 or less? I'll try that next.

redsmetz
05-19-2009, 11:18 AM
I think the reason why RZ'ers say we play poorly in front of large crowds is because the large crowds are typically when we are coming off a big win streak, and are expecting to win the next one with the big crowd. That causes us to only remember the losses, and not necessarily the wins.

Actually this season, we're 0-2 coming off of road trips. Last season, we were actually 7-4. I didn't check crowd sizes and one of those wins was followed by an absolutely horrible home stand in August when we proceeded to lose the next six games at home against Milwaukee & Houston (the longest of the season).

Mario-Rijo
05-19-2009, 05:05 PM
Despite the fact that we are 42-40 it still doesn't tell us if we play poorly or not. I guess what I'm saying is even when we did win we often didn't play well to get there, we were just often fortunate to be playing a team that played worse.

BTW we are 1-3 this season in those games.

Edskin
05-24-2009, 03:54 PM
Here are our results in front of "small" crowds-- 17,000 or less, added to the list:

2005

Overall home record: 42-39 (51.8%)
Record with large crowds: 8-5 (61.5%)
Record with small corwds: 6-8 (42.8%)

2006

Overall home record: 42-39 (51.8%)
Record with large crowds: 10-12 (45.4%)
Record with small crowds: 8-1 (88.8%)

2007

Overall home record: 39-42 (48.1%)
Record with large crowds: 12-12 (50%)
Record with small crowds: 6-9 (40%)

2008

Overall home record: 43-38 (53%)
Record with large crowds: 12-11 (52.1%)
Record with small crowds: 9-4 (69.2%)

Overall

Overall Record 2005-2008: 166-158 (51.2%)
Overall Record from 2005-2006 with Large Crowds: 42-40 (52.5%)
Overall Record from 2005-2008 with Small Crowds: 29-22 (56.8%)

Nothing really earth-shattering here. The games with smaller crowds generally came against poor teams, while the the games with larger crowds came against better teams or on holidays, Saturday nights, etc.

Bottom line, the Reds performance does not appear to be affected in any way by the number of people in the stands.