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Kc61
05-22-2009, 11:10 AM
Reds won 4 of last 10, now 21-19, breakdown of 8-11 at home, 13-8 on the road. Scored 180 runs, allowed 178. Lost last 5 of 6. Votto out for most of last stretch, Massett who was very effective now on DL. EE remains out.

Offense - Team OPS improved from .719 to current .738, but relative to other teams still tied for 10th-11th in league. Improvement due to SLG which improved from .390 to .409, 9th in league, near league average of .411.

OBP, however, did not improve, now .328 compared with .329 last time, now 11th in league. BA is .255 up slightly.
Reds are 12th in NL in walking, with 140 BBs, NL average is 153.

Two starting hitters, Bruce and Hairston, with wide SLG/OBP gaps. Bruce slugging .527 with OBP of .321. Has .266 OBP this month against righties. Hairston with .467 SLG and .313 OBP for season.

Phillips with 26 RBI in May, leads the major leagues for the month. Has 1.064 OPS for May.
Gonzalez now with 98 total plate appearances BA below Mendoza line and .505 OPS.

Pitching - Team ERA was below 4, but slipped to 4.08 after pounding by Phils yesterday, now 5th best in the NL and better than league average of 4.40. Starting ERA of 4.17 in middle of NL pack at 8th best. Team WHIP of 1.31 better than NL average 1.38. ERAs - Cueto at 2.35, Harang 3.19, Volquez 4.25, Owings, 4.70, Arroyo 6.56. Arroyo leads with 5 wins.

Bullpen spotty had a hand in 4 of the 6 losses. Cordero perfect in saves but 0-2 in WL record. Turning point outing by Weathers against SD when he walked three on very close pitches and team lost in 16.
Lincoln ERA is 9.60, Burton 5.89.

Defense - good stretch for the leather. Reds made 5 errors in last 10 games, improved to .980 FPCT. Error total now tied for 4th-5th worst in NL, but better than last time. Team DER now 3rd best in league, up from 6th best last time. According to RF and UZR ratings as reported both Taveras and Bruce playing fine outfield defense.

Falls City Beer
05-22-2009, 11:12 AM
Pitching - Team ERA was below 4, but slipped to .408 after pounding by Phils yesterday, now 5th best in the NL and better than league average of .440. Starting ERA of .417 in middle of NL pack at 8th best. Team WHIP of 1.31 beter than NL average 1.38. ERAs - Cueto at 2.35, Harang 3.19, Volquez 4.25, Owings, 4.70, Arroyo 6.56. All have won-lost records of .500 or better

Telling stat. This was supposed to be the team's true strong suit.

Kc61
05-22-2009, 11:18 AM
Telling stat. This was supposed to be the team's true strong suit.

Sorry, re-checking that stat. Doesn't seem right. Nope, looks right. 4.17. 8th place in league for starters.

I think this is a key stat. Not so much for the past but for the future. I think this stat can get better because Arroyo's number is artificially high due to the one horrendous outing. And Owings was hurt by a bad matchup against the Phils in GABP.

Key now is for Bailey to hold the fort and V to get healthy. I think we can see Reds back around 4.00 next time. Agree, though, it is a key statistic for this team because the offense is unlikely to be a plus area.

hebroncougar
05-22-2009, 11:18 AM
Telling stat. This was supposed to be the team's true strong suit.

I'm not so sure why people think the sky is falling yet. Multiply the record by 4, and you get 84-76. That's more wins that I thought they'd have. And we haven't even started to really hit yet.

Falls City Beer
05-22-2009, 11:25 AM
I'm not so sure why people think the sky is falling yet. Multiply the record by 4, and you get 84-76. That's more wins that I thought they'd have. And we haven't even started to really hit yet.

I don't think the sky is falling: I've felt all along that the press was too quick to call the rotation one of the better in the NL. It isn't. The back end is--once more--a huge problem.

RedsManRick
05-22-2009, 11:31 AM
Telling stat. This was supposed to be the team's true strong suit.

Adjust those ERA figures for park factors and I imagine we move up the list.

Considering the Reds starter's ERA for the last 5 years...

2008: 4.97
2007: 4.86
2006: 4.58
2005: 5.38
2004: 5.23

I'm pretty happy with a 4.12 ERA. Sure, we could be better. But allowing 721 runs (our current pace) would be a significant improvement from year's past and there's some legitimate hitting talent in the pipeline.

Kc61
05-22-2009, 11:38 AM
Adjust those ERA figures for park factors and I imagine we move up the list.

Considering the Reds starter's ERA for the last 5 years...

2008: 4.97
2007: 4.86
2006: 4.58
2005: 5.38
2004: 5.23

I'm pretty happy with a 4.12 ERA. Sure, we could be better. But allowing 721 runs (our current pace) would be a significant improvement from year's past and there's some legitimate hitting talent in the pipeline.

The four guys whose ERAs are hurting the team average are Arroyo, Owings, Burton, and Lincoln.

Arroyo is not a 6 plus pitcher, his ERA should improve dramatically.

Owings is a fifth starter, 4.70 is ok. And yesterday hurt him. As a fifth starter, he's a big improvement and his ERA can get better if the matchups turn out favorably.

Lincoln and Burton will require focus by the team. Burton is not the same pitcher as in the last two seasons. The Lincoln contract just may have been a mistake.

Falls City Beer
05-22-2009, 12:35 PM
The four guys whose ERAs are hurting the team average are Arroyo, Owings, Burton, and Lincoln.

Arroyo is not a 6 plus pitcher, his ERA should improve dramatically.

Owings is a fifth starter, 4.70 is ok. And yesterday hurt him. As a fifth starter, he's a big improvement and his ERA can get better if the matchups turn out favorably.

Lincoln and Burton will require focus by the team. Burton is not the same pitcher as in the last two seasons. The Lincoln contract just may have been a mistake.

Arroyo's FIP says he's deserved every run that's crossed the plate against him. He's been abysmal. Owings' FIP is over 6 too. The more innings these two log, the further down the chute this team's and starters' ERA will go; not to mention the pronounced strain they'll exert on the bullpen. Fix it now--they're headed in the wrong direction.

OnBaseMachine
05-22-2009, 12:35 PM
Telling stat. This was supposed to be the team's true strong suit.

The Reds are tied for fifth in the majors with an ERA+ of 113. The pitching has been fine.

Falls City Beer
05-22-2009, 12:38 PM
The Reds are tied for fifth in the majors with an ERA+ of 113. The pitching has been fine.

The pitching's fine till it isn't. Ignore the storm clouds if you like. Me, I'd love to see some bigger thinking on this issue than "letting Arroyo and Owings settle in."

OnBaseMachine
05-22-2009, 01:24 PM
The pitching's fine till it isn't. Ignore the storm clouds if you like. Me, I'd love to see some bigger thinking on this issue than "letting Arroyo and Owings settle in."

I've been saying for weeks now that Lincoln needs to be replaced, and it's becoming quite evident that Jared Burton needs to spend some time in Louisville to work his problems out. I think Arroyo will figure things out like he always does. Owings, well, he's our fifth starter. Hopefully Homer Bailey comes up and pitches well and forces Owings to the bullpen.

RedsMan3203
05-22-2009, 03:12 PM
I've been saying for weeks now that Lincoln needs to be replaced, and it's becoming quite evident that Jared Burton needs to spend some time in Louisville to work his problems out. I think Arroyo will figure things out like he always does. Owings, well, he's our fifth starter. Hopefully Homer Bailey comes up and pitches well and forces Owings to the bullpen.

Putting Owings in the Pen wouldn't be half bad would it? He becaomes out long man and primary pinch hitter. :D

mth123
05-22-2009, 07:06 PM
Telling stat. This was supposed to be the team's true strong suit.

Middle of the pack is this team's strong suit as compared to the offense, defense or even the pen. The pen may look a little better, but the starters going deeper into games is why.

Falls City Beer
05-22-2009, 07:15 PM
Middle of the pack is this team's strong suit as compared to the offense, defense or even the pen. The pen may look a little better, but the starters going deeper into games is why.

Offense is pretty close to middle of the pack too. Defense is respectable as well.

I see attrition going on in the starting and the bullpen, but I don't in the other areas.

The point is, the starting hasn't been as good as advertised, and it's probably going to get worse when you consider that Owings ERA is better than his FIP and Arroyo's already-putrid ERA matches his FIP. These two guys don't represent an appreciable improvement over Milton or Fogg. As we've seen time and again, that just wrecks a team's chances to gain any momentum.

OnBaseMachine
05-22-2009, 07:22 PM
Offense is pretty close to middle of the pack too. Defense is respectable as well.

I see attrition going on in the starting and the bullpen, but I don't in the other areas.

The point is, the starting hasn't been as good as advertised, and it's probably going to get worse when you consider that Owings ERA is better than his FIP and Arroyo's already-putrid ERA matches his FIP. These two guys don't represent an appreciable improvement over Milton or Fogg. As we've seen time and again, that just wrecks a team's chances to gain any momentum.

The pitching is tied for fifth in ERA+ out of 30 teams. That is well above middle of the pack. The offense is 23rd in OPS+.

nate
05-22-2009, 07:22 PM
Offense is pretty close to middle of the pack too. Defense is respectable as well.

I see attrition going on in the starting and the bullpen, but I don't in the other areas.

The point is, the starting hasn't been as good as advertised, and it's probably going to get worse when you consider that Owings ERA is better than his FIP and Arroyo's already-putrid ERA matches his FIP. These two guys don't represent an appreciable improvement over Milton or Fogg. As we've seen time and again, that just wrecks a team's chances to gain any momentum.

The entire team's ERA is better than their FIP. They have one of the highest differences between ERA and FIP in the league.

flyer85
05-22-2009, 07:24 PM
Adjust those ERA figures for park factors and I imagine we move up the list.

Considering the Reds starter's ERA for the last 5 years...

2008: 4.97
2007: 4.86
2006: 4.58
2005: 5.38
2004: 5.23

I'm pretty happy with a 4.12 ERA. Sure, we could be better. But allowing 721 runs (our current pace) would be a significant improvement from year's past and there's some legitimate hitting talent in the pipeline.also considering the fact that the teams in front in ERA play in pitchers parks.

I think the biggest issue is that it is hard to see how the speed and manucfacture offensive model will ever work playing 81 games in GABP. The offense is miscast for playing 81 games at GABP

mth123
05-22-2009, 07:34 PM
Offense is pretty close to middle of the pack too. Defense is respectable as well.

I see attrition going on in the starting and the bullpen, but I don't in the other areas.

The point is, the starting hasn't been as good as advertised, and it's probably going to get worse when you consider that Owings ERA is better than his FIP and Arroyo's already-putrid ERA matches his FIP. These two guys don't represent an appreciable improvement over Milton or Fogg. As we've seen time and again, that just wrecks a team's chances to gain any momentum.


I guess middle of the pack is all I ever expected. That's good enough to win if the other areas of the team are built properly. In past season's the starting staff meant the team had no chance no matter what. This year, the Reds had the opportunity by merely addressing the SS problem and adding a bat (left or right handed doesn't matter). Instead they cast their lot with Norris Hopper Jr as the primary acqusition.

fearofpopvol1
05-22-2009, 10:34 PM
Arroyo's FIP says he's deserved every run that's crossed the plate against him. He's been abysmal. Owings' FIP is over 6 too. The more innings these two log, the further down the chute this team's and starters' ERA will go; not to mention the pronounced strain they'll exert on the bullpen. Fix it now--they're headed in the wrong direction.

Arroyo was awful tonight. Let's get him to the pen ASAP.

VR
05-23-2009, 12:43 AM
Arroyo was awful tonight. Let's get him to the pen ASAP.

Guess who leads the NL in wins. Come on, guess.

Handofdeath
05-23-2009, 01:08 AM
Guess who leads the NL in wins. Come on, guess.

He may lead in Wins, but in 9 starts he's given up 9 runs twice and 5 runs twice. Not good...

Eric_the_Red
05-23-2009, 01:08 AM
Offense is pretty close to middle of the pack too. Defense is respectable as well.

I see attrition going on in the starting and the bullpen, but I don't in the other areas.

The point is, the starting hasn't been as good as advertised, and it's probably going to get worse when you consider that Owings ERA is better than his FIP and Arroyo's already-putrid ERA matches his FIP. These two guys don't represent an appreciable improvement over Milton or Fogg. As we've seen time and again, that just wrecks a team's chances to gain any momentum.

Wha?! :confused: Arroyo & Owings may not be all-stars but to compare either to Milton.....yeesh.

VR
05-23-2009, 01:15 AM
He may lead in Wins, but in 9 starts he's given up 9 runs twice and 5 runs twice. Not good...

3,3,1,1,0

Those are the other 5. As a number 4 starter.....that's not too common.

He's flammable, no doubt. But as our 4th best starter....he's very valuable.

Stormy
05-23-2009, 01:27 AM
The pitching is tied for fifth in ERA+ out of 30 teams. That is well above middle of the pack. The offense is 23rd in OPS+.

:owned:

Ltlabner
05-23-2009, 09:36 AM
YEAR NAME IP WHIP H9 BB9 SO9 HR9
2009 Eric Milton Driving a bus in Compton
2009 Josh Fogg Mowing yards for a living
2009 Bronson Arroyo 56.0 1.48 9.96 3.38 4.66 1.93
2009 Micah Owings 44.0 1.48 9.20 4.09 5.52 1.23

YEAR NAME IP WHIP H9 BB9 SO9 HR9
2008 Eric Milton Playing golf with Kent Merker at Muirfield
2008 Josh Fogg 78.3 1.58 11.14 3.10 5.17 1.95
2008 Bronson Arroyo 200.0 1.44 9.86 3.06 7.34 1.31
2008 Micah Owings 104.7 1.39 8.94 3.53 7.48 1.20

YEAR NAME IP WHIP H9 BB9 SO9 HR9
2007 Eric Milton 31.3 1.53 11.20 2.59 5.17 1.15
2007 Josh Fogg 165.7 1.53 10.54 3.21 5.11 1.25
2007 Bronson Arroyo 210.7 1.40 9.91 2.69 6.66 1.20
2007 Micah Owings 152.7 1.28 8.61 2.95 6.25 1.18

YEAR NAME IP WHIP H9 BB9 SO9 HR9
2006 Eric Milton 152.7 1.34 9.61 2.48 5.31 1.71
2006 Josh Fogg 172.0 1.55 10.78 3.14 4.87 1.26
2006 Bronson Arroyo 240.7 1.19 8.30 2.39 6.88 1.16

YEAR NAME IP WHIP H9 BB9 SO9 HR9
2005 Eric Milton 186.3 1.55 11.45 2.51 5.94 1.93
2005 Josh Fogg 169.3 1.47 10.42 2.82 4.52 1.44
2005 Bronson Arroyo 205.3 1.30 9.34 2.37 4.38 0.96

RedsBaron
05-23-2009, 09:58 AM
The Reds starting rotation will not make anyone forget the 1971 Orioles or the Braves for most of the 1990s, but it is probably the least of their problems right now. It is hard to win if you don't score runs, and it is hard to score runs if you do not get on base.

Falls City Beer
05-23-2009, 10:00 AM
The Reds starting rotation will not make anyone forget the 1971 Orioles or the Braves for most of the 1990s, but it is probably the least of their problems right now. It is hard to win if you don't score runs, and it is hard to score runs if you do not get on base.

It's particularly hard when your offensive driver hasn't seen regular action in over a week.