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View Full Version : Great Votto post in the Sun Deck



nate
05-26-2009, 06:58 PM
Check (http://www.redszone.com/forums/showthread.php?p=1877245#post1877245) it out:


You know, I'm usually not much for the hyperbole. I don't like to hold guys to unrealistic expectations or label players as Hall of Famers or perennial All Stars without a solid sample size and extensive proven history.

But I'm going to tread a little bit into the uncharted territory to bring up the possibility of stardom with Joey Votto.

First of all, while I don't claim to be a professional scout, Votto simply passes the eyeball test. One of the things the scouts always look for is the 'sound' of the ball leaving the bat. Votto has this. Scouts look for opposite field power. Votto has that. Scouts love a guy that has fantastic discipline at the plate with the ability to foul pitches off (bat control). Check again.

It's amazing. When you watch Votto in an at-bat, he can go to the plate and wait three or four pitches before swinging, because he rarely is overmatched. Monday he swung and missed at a pitch, giving him a rare strikeout, and I think it was simply a matter of expecting a fastball and getting a changeup. Curious as to just how good a season he's been having, I decided to see how the numbers corroborated the eyeball test.

Did they ever.

No. 1 in batting average (.368)

No. 18 in AB / HR (16.7)

No. 3 in AB / RBI (3.8) - behind only Prince Fielder & Brad Hawpe

No. 1 in OBP (.479) - 19 percentage points ahead of Carlos Beltran

No. 3 in SLG (.632) - behind only Albert Pujols & Raul Ibanez

No. 2 in OPS (1.111) - behind Raul Ibanez

No. 1 in RC/27 (11.08) - meaning a team of Vottos would score 11 runs/game

No. 1 in Off. Win Pctg (.836) - meaning a team of Vottos and an average staff would be expected to win 84 percent of their games / this is 22 pctg. points ahead of Pujols

No. 16 in RC (32.4) - aggregate total despite missing several games. Ibanez leads with 44.8

No. 1 in RBI Rate (40.0) - This is a stat I've made that is essentially a ratio of all runners on base that was driven in compared to runners left on base. If a player gets a hit or walks but does not drive in a run, it does not count against the player. The equation is essentially (RBI-HR) / LOB. Second place in the league with at least 100 PA is Brad Hawpe (35.7), then Todd Helton (32.9), Chase Utley (32.8) and Carlos Delgado (31.7). Last year Pujols led the league based on qualified players with a 30.2 ratio.

No. 2 in Gross Production Average / GPA (.374) - this is said to be the highest correlation to run scoring even over runs created, base runs etc. It's essentially like OPS but it's 1.8 times the OBP plus slugging. It's then divided by four to scale it to a batting average-like metric. Manny is No. 1 (.382). Albert Pujols is third (.366), Raul Ibanez (.365) and Carlos Beltran (.350). League average is around .263.

No. 19 in BB% (13.1%). Adam Dunn (17.5%) and Kosuke Fukudome (17.3%) lead the league.

No. 50 in K% (15.%%). Juan Pierre & Miguel Tejada (5.9%)are league leaders with Albert Pujols (6.7%) third.

No. 8 in P/PA (4.30). Jayson Werth (4.55) leads the league.

What's interesting about these two aforementioned categories, however, is that of the top 50 players in the league in pitches seen per plate appearance, only nine (9) of the top 50 have a better strikeout rate (i.e. fewer strikeouts per plate appearance) than does Votto. So in other words, Votto is among the league's best at seeing more pitches while still avoiding strikeouts.

Dovetailing on this BB/K issue, Joey Votto is 10th in the league in BB/K ratio (1.05). Albert Pujols leads at an insane 2.69 with only a total of 12 NL qualified players having a plus ratio of 1.00 or more. Side note: Brandon Phillips is the 12th of these players.

Only Scott Hairston (.500) and Brad Hawpe (.486) have a better BA with RISP than does Joey Votto (.457).

Lastly, Votto is No. 3 in the entire major leagues in WPA (Win Probability Added). This is arguably the most important stat (beyond run creation) because this measures the aggregate percent chances a player contributed to his team winning games. For instance, say a player comes up in the 5th inning, down 2 runs with a runner at first and one out. If he strikes out, WPA will then deduct the chances the team had of winning the game after the player hit minus the chances they had of winning before he hit. This is all based on historical play data. So if there was a 33% chance of the team winning and his out made it 31%, he gets a -2.0. Then if he comes up with runners on second and third, two outs in a tie game in the ninth while hitting a home run, he'll get credit for a + percent (100% chance of winning minus whatever the chances were before he came to the plate). He currently trails only Raul Ibanez and Jason Bay with a 2.55 WPA. Over the course of the season, the leaders usually are around 5-8. Anything over 8 is a fantastic year.


OK so I may have overdone this. But clearly, Votto is having the kind of season that only Albert Pujols and Raul Ibanez can match in the National League. These guys are more proven players, although Ibanez has not typically been THIS good. But though sample size is still an issue, combine the season Votto is having with the old-fashioned eye-test, and we have something potentially special here.

A couple of additional notes:

* Though his batting average seems unsustainable, especially given his .409 BABIP, he continues to hit a very, very consistent 25% line drives. In fact, all three seasons thus far in the majors he's hit at 25-26%. This bodes well for him consistently being a .300 hitter.

* Though his BB/K rate is spectacular, his career ratio is a respectable but a bit more tempered 0.63 including minor league seasons. So this might be in line for an eventual correction.

* His HR/FB ratio (21.9%) continues to climb. This indicates to me he's getting stronger and I think it's indicative of the number of opposite field home runs he's now hitting out of the ballpark instead of becoming "warning track" outs.


Anyhow, to summarize, clearly Votto is putting up some lopsided numbers. Can he sustain it? Hard to say. Is he overperforming? Possibly so. Either way though, the guy has some great potential and is a lot of fun to watch.

Impressive stuff there. I think I'm most impressed by the plate discipline.

As the OP wondered, can he sustain it?

klw
05-26-2009, 07:05 PM
Great season by Votto and great post by Brutus the Pimp. (See The Future forum)

nate
05-26-2009, 07:11 PM
It seems like the best move the Reds never made was trading him for Bedard.

Chip R
05-26-2009, 07:11 PM
Even though he's having a tremendous season, it's going to be difficult for him to make the All Star team. I believe Thom and Jeff were talking about it yesterday. Pujols is more than likely going to win the fan vote and even if he doesn't he'll make the team. Ryan Howard is having another great year. If he's not hurt, Derrick Lee may make the team as a reserve. And how can you leave Adrian Gonzalez off the team. Even if you take out Lee, there's still Pujols, Howard and Gonzalez. One would guess that Cueto will be the Reds representative. Rhodes may have an outside shot. Cordero may have a shot too. Despite his slow start and his recent injury, Phillips may get a spot and Volquez might have a chance too.

Joey's having a killer year but even if he's healthy, he may not have a shot.

_Sir_Charles_
05-26-2009, 07:13 PM
I disagree. Yeah there are guys having great years...but other than Pujols...none of them are as good as Votto's been. He'll make it.

BTW...if you guys haven't yet...get in your 25 votes for Votto. He deserves some recognition...he also deserves for Reds fans to get off their bee-hinds.

nate
05-26-2009, 07:50 PM
I disagree. Yeah there are guys having great years...but other than Pujols...none of them are as good as Votto's been. He'll make it.

Yeah, but it's a popularity contest, not a "who's best" contest.

_Sir_Charles_
05-26-2009, 09:17 PM
Yeah, but it's a popularity contest, not a "who's best" contest.

The starters...sure. But the backups aren't a popularity contest. There's no way he should be about Albert regardless, so backup is the only thing on the table for Joey.

But just because Albert's got it locked up (and rightly so) doesn't mean that Reds fan's shouldn't show Joey the love by taking the time to vote for him. If nothing else, it'll help his national visibility.

Scrap Irony
05-26-2009, 09:25 PM
OPS+ of 184 right now is MVP caliber and likely to get him an All Star nod.

RFS62
05-26-2009, 09:27 PM
That was one heck of a post.

nate
05-26-2009, 09:33 PM
The starters...sure. But the backups aren't a popularity contest. There's no way he should be about Albert regardless, so backup is the only thing on the table for Joey.

But just because Albert's got it locked up (and rightly so) doesn't mean that Reds fan's shouldn't show Joey the love by taking the time to vote for him. If nothing else, it'll help his national visibility.

Hey, you're the guy that's always saying be positive!

:cool:

_Sir_Charles_
05-26-2009, 10:32 PM
Hey, you're the guy that's always saying be positive!

:cool:

He shoots and he SCORES! :O)

westofyou
05-26-2009, 10:53 PM
BTW...if you guys haven't yet...get in your 25 votes for Votto.
<rant>
Ughh I hate the voting system, 25 votes?

Per person????

AS Games are for kids and the press, especially with voting systems that scream 57 Reds.</rant>

TheNext44
05-27-2009, 12:17 AM
Even if he is not picked as a reserve, he stands a decent chance of winning that "last spot" vote if he is still putting up the numbers he is currently putting up. The Reds need to do a publicity blitz soon to make people aware of what he is doing.

Ron Madden
05-27-2009, 03:41 AM
<rant>
Ughh I hate the voting system, 25 votes?

Per person????

AS Games are for kids and the press, especially with voting systems that scream 57 Reds.</rant>



Agreed. The Mid Summer Classic has turned into a sad joke.

I'd rather see the Players, Managers and Coaches vote for the Starting Players and Pitchers from their league. Especially now that WS home field advantage is on the line.

Let the Fans vote count for the rest of the roster.

Eric_the_Red
05-27-2009, 08:02 AM
Agreed. The Mid Summer Classic has turned into a sad joke.

I'd rather see the Players, Managers and Coaches vote for the Starting Players and Pitchers from their league. Especially now that WS home field advantage is on the line.

Let the Fans vote count for the rest of the roster.


That or divide the vote, 1/3 players, 1/3 coaches/managers, 1/3 fans. I know the NFL does (or did) this for the All-Pro game and you rarely have any controversy about which players are in/out. (Of course that could also be because nobody cares about that game.)

nate
05-27-2009, 08:58 AM
One would think some "script kiddie" would've written a macro to auto-vote. An Auto-Votto-Vote...o.

Chip R
05-27-2009, 09:00 AM
One would think some "script kiddie" would've written a macro to auto-vote. An Auto-Votto-Vote...o.


Someone on here did that with Jr. a few years ago.

bucksfan2
05-27-2009, 09:07 AM
Even if he is not picked as a reserve, he stands a decent chance of winning that "last spot" vote if he is still putting up the numbers he is currently putting up. The Reds need to do a publicity blitz soon to make people aware of what he is doing.

No he doesn't. If you ask the casual fan who Joey Votto is I would imagine < 50% even know who he is. The problem is that if you put Votto on the "last spot" vote against Howard, Howard will win that hands down.

Jpup
05-27-2009, 09:16 AM
Joey Votto is everything Reds' fans always wanted Adam Dunn to be. High batting average, some homers, but not too many, and he gets a lot of RBIs.

He's been the best player in baseball this season from all the games that I have watched.

Scrap Irony
05-27-2009, 09:55 AM
I'd say he's second to Pujols, but that's just quibbling. And, yeah, that's a good call, re Dunn. Votto is a mix of the best of Cincinnati baseball over the past twenty years.

He has Dunn's pop, Casey's eye, and Larkin's professionalism. If he can somehow add Rose's hustle and Morgan's baseball IQ, he could run for mayor and win in a landslide.

westofyou
05-27-2009, 10:18 AM
I like Votto, but I'm seeing a lot of hyperbole thrown around here, but that's to be expected, he's smoking right now.

Let's compare his first 2 seasons with other stars/punching bags from Reds past


Casey

1998-1999

YEAR TEAM AGE G AB R H 2B 3B HR HR% RBI BB SO SB CS AVG SLG OBA OPS
1998 Reds 23 96 302 44 82 21 1 7 2.32 52 43 45 1 1 .272 .417 .365 .782
1999 Reds 24 151 594 103 197 42 3 25 4.21 99 61 88 0 2 .332 .539 .399 .938
TOTALS 247 896 147 279 63 4 32 3.57 151 104 133 1 3 .311 .498 .387 .885
LG AVERAGE 846 124 231 45 5 28 3.29 118 91 155 18 8 .273 .437 .347 .784
POS AVERAGE 859 133 243 50 4 37 4.26 147 117 160 10 6 .283 .477 .371 .848


Dunn


2001-2002

YEAR TEAM AGE G AB R H 2B 3B HR HR% RBI BB SO SB CS AVG SLG OBA OPS
2001 Reds 21 66 244 54 64 18 1 19 7.79 43 38 74 4 2 .262 .578 .371 .948
2002 Reds 22 158 535 84 133 28 2 26 4.86 71 128 170 19 9 .249 .454 .400 .854
TOTALS 224 779 138 197 46 3 45 5.78 114 166 244 23 11 .253 .493 .391 .884
LG AVERAGE 780 107 208 41 5 25 3.23 102 81 146 14 7 .267 .428 .340 .768
POS AVERAGE 795 121 221 45 5 35 4.41 127 105 156 15 7 .278 .478 .365 .842


Votto


SPLITS G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS AVG OBP SLG OPS

Season 36 121 22 44 10 0 8 33 23 24 2 1 .364 .473 .645 1.117
Career 211 731 102 227 49 3 36 134 87 141 10 6 .311 .386 .534 .919

Ten years ago Sean Casey was 2 years younger than Votto and had this line in his 1st 3 months of the 1999 season.


Month G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB IBB SO HBP SH SF XI ROE GDP SB CS AVG OBP SLG
April 20 78 13 29 8 1 3 11 6 1 5 1 0 1 0 1 2 0 0 .372 .419 .615
May 25 98 19 38 9 1 7 24 8 1 17 1 0 0 0 3 1 0 1 .388 .439 .714
June 24 99 16 38 6 0 6 17 8 4 14 1 0 1 0 0 2 0 0 .384 .431 .626


That's the sort of stuff that Pujols does year in and year out, while I hope Votto does this I don't expect it either.

RedEye
05-27-2009, 10:19 AM
Since the consensus seems to be that Votto cannot possibly sustain his current pace, I'm wondering how people would project his end-of-year stats. I'll take a shot:

.315/.400/.550, 30 HR, 110 RBI, 100 R, 100 BB

I don't think he quite makes a 1.000 OPS this year, but a .950 in his age-25 season would portend some of that in the future.

CarolinaRedleg
05-27-2009, 10:28 AM
It's going to be tough. St. Albert's probably going to take the fan vote, and with Manuel in as NL manager, it's hard to imagine him not taking Howard as one 1B reserve. Votto's definitely deserving of the AS game nod and I hope it happens.

bucksfan2
05-27-2009, 10:28 AM
WOY for arguements sake 1999 was a career year for Casey. He was never as good as he was in that season. Also for Dunn the first half of 01 may have been the best 3 months of his career.

Votto may not be able sustain his current level of production but I still expect him to produce at a high level.

westofyou
05-27-2009, 10:44 AM
WOY for arguements sake 1999 was a career year for Casey. He was never as good as he was in that season. Also for Dunn the first half of 01 may have been the best 3 months of his career.

Votto may not be able sustain his current level of production but I still expect him to produce at a high level.

That's the point, they all were at bat wise around the same matrix.

And if you were here or at Fastball.com you would have heard the same things said about them that are being said about Votto. Including your last sentence with said players name replacing Votto's

SMcGavin
05-27-2009, 12:00 PM
Nice post woy. That start from Casey in 99 is amazing, doing that at age 24 you'd have thought he'd become a perennial MVP contender.

Votto is a really good player having an amazing start, but I'm not going to get my hopes so high that I'm disappointed if he "only" becomes the .900 OPS type guy we thought he was before the season.

wheels
05-27-2009, 04:36 PM
What's great about young players is that we [I]don't know[I].

I love it. Even if he can't sustain his torrid pace, it's been fun to watch. I try to avoid severe expectations one way or the other when it comes to individual players.

I don't get overly disappointed if they tank because Baseball is super hard.

westofyou
05-27-2009, 05:10 PM
Baseball is super hard.

It's the easiest looking hard thing out there and everyone in America has done it once, even if they didn't want to.