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View Full Version : Who will have the better career...Votto or Bruce?



fearofpopvol1
05-27-2009, 11:43 AM
And why?

You can define better any way you like. Some may define that by home runs, OPS, batting average, RBIs, defense...whatever.

Degenerate39
05-27-2009, 11:56 AM
I really don't know but I voted Votto. He just seems like the more complete player but I still love Bruce

OnBaseMachine
05-27-2009, 11:57 AM
First of all, I think both of them are going to be great players for a long time and I'm excited to have them both on the Reds. With that said, to answer your question, I like Jay Bruce a little better in the long term. Jay is a little raw right now but once he smoothes things out, he's going to be a superstar, IMO. I know some people may be down on him right now because he's struggling, but we need to remember that he's only 22 years old. Joey Votto was in Double-A when he was 22.

lollipopcurve
05-27-2009, 12:13 PM
Votto.

Better understanding of what it takes to excel.

Razor Shines
05-27-2009, 12:24 PM
Votto.

Better understanding of what it takes to excel.

How's that? Jay's been better at every level and got to the Bigs 2 years younger. What is it, from your knowledge of these two, that Joey understands that Jay doesn't?

Dan
05-27-2009, 12:47 PM
To my mind, the best predictor of long-term success is BB/K ratio. (Note that # of Ks doesn't matter) Votto throughout his career has a much better BB/K ratio than Bruce. This means in general he gets better at bats than Bruce does. I think Bruce hits for more power, but he'll wind up with a career arc similar to a Geoff Jenkins or Jeromy Burnitz while Votto will be along the lines of a J.T. Snow or (dating myself) Wally Joyner or even Will Clark.

lollipopcurve
05-27-2009, 01:02 PM
What is it, from your knowledge of these two, that Joey understands that Jay doesn't?

Votto has an exceptional work ethic and he has always been a student of hitting. He has talked about maintaining focus better this year on an at-bat by at-bat basis. He clearly wants to excel (and prove people wrong -- he felt he was kept in the minors too long) and demands improvements from himself. Not a knock on Bruce, but he impresses more as a guy who plays by instinct. He has been slow to make adjustments -- the swing is still pretty long at times, and he has talked more than once, even this year, about "doing what got me here." It's important to have confidence, as he does, but it's also important to keep learning.

Bruce may have more natural talent (Votto has plenty), but eventually that fades, and the guy who is the exceptional worker and student will have more staying power. Just my opinion.

RedEye
05-27-2009, 01:12 PM
To my mind, the best predictor of long-term success is BB/K ratio. (Note that # of Ks doesn't matter) Votto throughout his career has a much better BB/K ratio than Bruce. This means in general he gets better at bats than Bruce does. I think Bruce hits for more power, but he'll wind up with a career arc similar to a Geoff Jenkins or Jeromy Burnitz while Votto will be along the lines of a J.T. Snow or (dating myself) Wally Joyner or even Will Clark.

Jeez... with the possible exception of Will Clark, I really hope Joey and Jay have better careers than that list of guys!

RedEye
05-27-2009, 01:15 PM
Votto has an exceptional work ethic and he has always been a student of hitting. He has talked about maintaining focus better this year on an at-bat by at-bat basis. He clearly wants to excel (and prove people wrong -- he felt he was kept in the minors too long) and demands improvements from himself. Not a knock on Bruce, but he impresses more as a guy who plays by instinct. He has been slow to make adjustments -- the swing is still pretty long at times, and he has talked more than once, even this year, about "doing what got me here." It's important to have confidence, as he does, but it's also important to keep learning.

Bruce may have more natural talent (Votto has plenty), but eventually that fades, and the guy who is the exceptional worker and student will have more staying power. Just my opinion.

Wasn't Votto's age 22 season the year he "figured it out" at AA and really exceled? If so, I would imagine that Bruce could have something like that in his future, too. Unlike most players, he just didn't hit his wall until the major leagues. Sometimes it takes finding out that you still have something to learn before you become a true student of the game.

bucksfan2
05-27-2009, 01:15 PM
Votto will be a better average hitter with a higher OBP. I think Bruce will put up better power numbers but lack a little in the average and OBP. Votto at this point in his career looks to be in complete control at the plate. Bruce, while younger, looks lost. I think the main difference between Votto and Bruce right now is that Bruce gives up too many swings. He makes outs on hitters pitches and he constantly is behind in the count. If Bruce needs to change this before he takes that next step.

IMO if both stay at their current positions they will become the GG caliber there. If Votto moves to LF then Bruce will have a huge advantage defensively. Votto has the ability to become Pujols or Lee like at 1b which is a very very good thing.

Dan
05-27-2009, 01:26 PM
Jeez... with the possible exception of Will Clark, I really hope Joey and Jay have better careers than that list of guys!

Looking at Clark's #'s, they aren't much better than Joyner's, but I believe definitely comparable to what Votto will contribute throughout his career.

OnBaseMachine
05-27-2009, 01:31 PM
To my mind, the best predictor of long-term success is BB/K ratio. (Note that # of Ks doesn't matter) Votto throughout his career has a much better BB/K ratio than Bruce. This means in general he gets better at bats than Bruce does. I think Bruce hits for more power, but he'll wind up with a career arc similar to a Geoff Jenkins or Jeromy Burnitz while Votto will be along the lines of a J.T. Snow or (dating myself) Wally Joyner or even Will Clark.

Geoff Jenkins or Jeromy Burnitz? Really?

I think Bruce is waaaay closer to Larry Walker than Geoff Jenkins.

Razor Shines
05-27-2009, 02:00 PM
Votto has an exceptional work ethic and he has always been a student of hitting. He has talked about maintaining focus better this year on an at-bat by at-bat basis. He clearly wants to excel (and prove people wrong -- he felt he was kept in the minors too long) and demands improvements from himself. Not a knock on Bruce, but he impresses more as a guy who plays by instinct. He has been slow to make adjustments -- the swing is still pretty long at times, and he has talked more than once, even this year, about "doing what got me here." It's important to have confidence, as he does, but it's also important to keep learning.

Bruce may have more natural talent (Votto has plenty), but eventually that fades, and the guy who is the exceptional worker and student will have more staying power. Just my opinion.

I don't know, maybe you're right, but I don't think you really have an idea of who works harder. How do we know that Jay isn't the harder worker? How do we know that Jay isn't a student of hitting? Because Joey gives better answers in interviews? What would Joey have looked like at age 22 in the big leagues? Would he have been slow to make adjustments? Yes, talent fades, Jay's got about ten years before it starts fading though. I don't like the idea that Jay's already getting the label of "not an exceptional worker" when none of us really know how hard any of these guys work.

lollipopcurve
05-27-2009, 02:13 PM
I don't know, maybe you're right, but I don't think you really have an idea of who works harder. How do we know that Jay isn't the harder worker? How do we know that Jay isn't a student of hitting? Because Joey gives better answers in interviews? What would Joey have looked like at age 22 in the big leagues? Would he have been slow to make adjustments? Yes, talent fades, Jay's got about ten years before it starts fading though. I don't like the idea that Jay's already getting the label of "not an exceptional worker" when none of us really know how hard any of these guys work.

Relying on anecdotal evidence here, and there's plenty to suggest Votto's work ethic is exceptional, while there is little, if any, that indicates the same about Bruce. Bruce had never really experienced adversity until he hit a rough patch in the bigs last year, so its understandable that he might think the game comes easy.

Perhaps a more palatable argument for you would be to point out, as others have noted, the plate approach and swing mechanics of Votto -- partly a result, I would say, of his study -- are superior to Bruce's. Unless Bruce makes adjustments -- and he has not shown much of a knack for it yet -- he'll never see the level of major league performance Votto's putting up right now, in my opinion.

OnBaseMachine
05-27-2009, 02:16 PM
Go check out some of the scouting reports on Jay Bruce from Baseball America. They praise his work ethic.

westofyou
05-27-2009, 02:20 PM
Jay Bruce is gonna have a fine career and by the time he's 25 like Votto he'll have 3 times as many AB's under his belt in MLB that Votto has at age 25. Then we'll know how they measure up.

Otherwise I remember a LOT of Kearns will be soooo much better than Dunn talk reverberating around here at one time.

WMR
05-27-2009, 02:33 PM
Relying on anecdotal evidence here, and there's plenty to suggest Votto's work ethic is exceptional, while there is little, if any, that indicates the same about Bruce. Bruce had never really experienced adversity until he hit a rough patch in the bigs last year, so its understandable that he might think the game comes easy.

Perhaps a more palatable argument for you would be to point out, as others have noted, the plate approach and swing mechanics of Votto -- partly a result, I would say, of his study -- are superior to Bruce's. Unless Bruce makes adjustments -- and he has not shown much of a knack for it yet -- he'll never see the level of major league performance Votto's putting up right now, in my opinion.

I wonder what Joey Votto would have looked like versus MLB pitching during his age 22 season?

I think Bruce will have the greater career in that his career/talent peak will surpass Joey's. Bruce has got superstar written all over him.

TheNext44
05-27-2009, 03:58 PM
The biggest difference is that Votto has learned to hit lefties. The ability to hit lefties only comes from experience, and I am confident that by the time Bruce is 24 or 25 he will be able to hit them well enough to put up great overall numbers. That is about the age in which nearly all great LH hitter learned to hit lefties.

When that happens, he will pass Votto, I believe.

bucksfan2
05-27-2009, 04:15 PM
The biggest difference is that Votto has learned to hit lefties. The ability to hit lefties only comes from experience, and I am confident that by the time Bruce is 24 or 25 he will be able to hit them well enough to put up great overall numbers. That is about the age in which nearly all great LH hitter learned to hit lefties.

When that happens, he will pass Votto, I believe.

I disagree. The ability to hit lefties helps when you have faced more lefties but it isn't the reason why. It really is an approach and a hitting style more than anything. The left handed hitters who hit lefties well are the ones who are able to stay within the ball and drive the ball to the left field gap. IMO there are very few players like Votto who hit lefties as well as they hit righties. Case and point was Votto's HR last night. As a pitcher it wasn't that bad of a pitch, the ball was down in the zone but Votto stayed with the pitch, but the barrel of the bat on the ball, and drove it over the LF fence.

What really impressed me about Votto last season was his power to the left center gap. If you have the power and ability to hit it out to all fields, which Votto does, you become a very scary hitter.

SMcGavin
05-27-2009, 04:38 PM
Interestingly Votto was downright awful against LHP in the minors: .239/.331/.357 in 400+ ABs. So whatever Joey is doing vs lefties now, it's not what he was doing when he was Bruce's age.

westofyou
05-27-2009, 04:43 PM
Interestingly Votto was downright awful against LHP in the minors: .239/.331/.357 in 400+ ABs. So whatever Joey is doing vs lefties now, it's not what he was doing when he was Bruce's age.

Yep that's why when he came up last year the scuttlebutt was get a Cantu to platoon with him, so either he's gotten a lot smarter or worked himself to this point or the sample size is still too small.

I choose the later.

kaldaniels
05-27-2009, 04:46 PM
So for those who voted Bruce, are you thinking Votto's start to this season is a statistical outlier...or do you think Bruce will be even better?

Bruce has all the tools, no doubt. But after watching Votto step up this year, if I had a gun to my head...it would have to be awful hard to pick Bruce on this one I think. And that is not a knock on Bruce or the game he brings to the table...Votto has just been that good.

I've read the scouting reports of course and Bruce projects to be a great one and I think he will be. But man, I'd say the projections on Votto were way off...not many saw this coming when he was 22. So based on what I see on the field, I go with Votto (but no one is for sure at this point), and I don't let the age difference affect my vote too much at all.

dougdirt
05-27-2009, 05:08 PM
I voted Bruce. Votto to this point in his career has a .344 BABIP. Thats not likely to continue. Votto is a guy who looks like a .285/.365/.500 type of hitter for his career. Jay to me looks like a .280/.350/.550 type of hitter. Obviously each guy is going to have peak seasons better than that, Votto obviously is having one right now. Jay Bruce goes on stretches as a 21 and 22 year old where he is locked in that make him a downright silly good player. When those stretches get more consistent, he will be one of the best players in baseball.

Another thing to note.... Votto is playing 1B. Bruce in RF. Positional value is different too.

That said, I am glad we have both of them. Very glad.

TheNext44
05-27-2009, 09:17 PM
I disagree. The ability to hit lefties helps when you have faced more lefties but it isn't the reason why. It really is an approach and a hitting style more than anything. The left handed hitters who hit lefties well are the ones who are able to stay within the ball and drive the ball to the left field gap. IMO there are very few players like Votto who hit lefties as well as they hit righties. Case and point was Votto's HR last night. As a pitcher it wasn't that bad of a pitch, the ball was down in the zone but Votto stayed with the pitch, but the barrel of the bat on the ball, and drove it over the LF fence.

What really impressed me about Votto last season was his power to the left center gap. If you have the power and ability to hit it out to all fields, which Votto does, you become a very scary hitter.

I agree with you completely. I just meant that you need exprience hitting against lefties in order to get better. You need the right approach too, but you're not going to get better if you don't get the experience too. Badly worded, my bad.

RedsManRick
05-28-2009, 12:04 AM
I think Bruce will have the more impressive peak, but Votto will have the more impressive career. I think of Bruce like a slightly better, hopefully healthier Jermaine Dye. Votto is more like a 1B version of Scott Rolen.

mth123
05-28-2009, 04:49 AM
I love Joey Votto. He's going to be a great hitter for many years and seems like a real class act as well. Baseball needs more guys like him.

I voted for Bruce though. Could be some bright days in Cincy with these two hitting in the middle of the order.

thatcoolguy_22
05-28-2009, 05:25 AM
I choose C) O. Prime :D

Both will be beasts. Be grateful they are wearing Reds' colors. I was one of the people willing to trade Votto plus for Bedard last year. Baaa! I feel sheepish. If Bruce does turn into Larry Walker and Votto Scott Rolen we will be incredibly lucky as fans to watch their career.

icehole3
05-28-2009, 06:24 AM
I think Votto has a better chance of staying healthier than Bruce, both should be locked up long term because they both have great work ethic and they eat, sleep baseball.