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View Full Version : What to think about Bronson?



buckeyenut
05-27-2009, 09:53 PM
OK, I need help. How are folks thinking about Bronson at this point?

Guy is 7-3 with an ERA now 5.12 after today's game. He has been absolutely brutal in two of his outings, but in the rest, he really has done a pretty nice job overall. Is this guy just a winner and we shouldn't really worry about his ERA and peripherals? Or is his 7-3 record dumb luck and he is bound to be a .500 pitcher, little more?

What say ye?

redsmetz
05-27-2009, 10:07 PM
I'm not tremendously worried about his ERA because a good bit of it is tied to the two terrible outings, isn't it? Without those two games letting up nine runs each (dropping 18 ER's and 6.2 innings), his ERA is avery respectable 2.93 (if I'm calculating correctly) - and that's with two other games where he gave up five earned runs.

Joseph
05-27-2009, 10:08 PM
He is not a stud pitcher, but every staff needs an Arroyo type pitcher who is durable, and aside from the occasional clunker is going to keep the team in the game.

Salary aside, I'd rather have him than not have him.

TheNext44
05-27-2009, 10:10 PM
Since his brutal beating against Toronto last year, here are his numbers:

18-9
4.04 ERA
1.23 WHIP
2.1 K/BB
6.6 IP/G

Those are the numbers of a solid #2 pitcher.

ERA this early can be deceiving, and being a contact pitcher, his peripherals (or FIP) will never be that great. But he keeps the team in the game at a much better rate than his ERA suggests, and he gives you lots of innings.

I'm happy with him so far.

corkedbat
05-27-2009, 10:12 PM
I think Bronson is a very solid pitcher when he finds his groove. I'm always wondering is this the start he loses it and if so, when does he find it again. He's pretty much stayed in it for a full year now and I won't say he can't keep it up.

As I said in the game thread (as ludicrous as it sounds), I'd actually shop him right now. I know it would be foolish to deal a pitcher with is record while the club is in a pennant race (especially with questions about EV), btu I'd still listen to offers.

I'm not saying give him away, by any means, I'm not trying to run him out of town and I doubt seriously I'd get an offer to make it worthwhile, but I'd listen. If i was offered a stud young bat, a solid young SS or a young starter that I thought could help solidfy my nucleus for the next several years, I'd do it.

It would probably be a stupid thing to do and shows while I'm not a big league GM, but I'd still do it for the right deal.

traderumor
05-27-2009, 10:13 PM
His stuff lends itself to getting bombed occasionally. What is funny is that every time he does, his doom is nye, no one will take him in a trade, and he is overpaid with a bad contract. Then, he goes out and does his job over the next several starts. I think the Reds are getting their money's worth out of him.

RedFanAlways1966
05-27-2009, 10:14 PM
Help by the offense and bullpen in his 10 starts. He also has been solid at times... his ERA has been ballooned by two starts in which he allowed 9 ER in each game (6.2 IP total in those 2 games). Get rid of those two starts and he has a 2.93 ERA. Six QS in 10 games. He deserves credit.

Help...
* 5.0 runs per game in support. Above avg. of 4.63 per game.
* Bullpen has a 2.63 ERA in his starts (avg 3.65 ERA).
>> Take away one game (5ER in 8IP) and the BP has a 1.13 ERA (16IP, 2ER).

kaldaniels
05-27-2009, 10:21 PM
The most underappreciated Red due to his contract. Heck, one not-to-be-named poster called him a borderline mop-up reliever within the last few days. Unbelievable. He is an innings eater who does his job and for me is a joy to watch pitch. Not filthy stuff, but he pitches smart. Despite his carefree image, I think his baseball IQ may be unmatched on the Reds.

red-in-la
05-27-2009, 10:29 PM
Arroyo has been a streaky pitcher for his entire career. He goes 10 sometimes 15 starts and is virtually unhittable. He then goes 5 or so starts and struggles. To me, it looks like he just gets lazy and drops his arm, flattening out his curveball and dropping the velocity on his fastball into the 80's.

jojo
05-27-2009, 10:45 PM
Arroyo is a slightly below average starter. He is what he is-rotation glue. Unless he's injured, the Reds should just hand him the ball, not go manic over a poor string of starts and let life run its course until he's run out of the rotation by a better arm (which at this point isn't available).

dsmith421
05-27-2009, 10:51 PM
Even if Bronson is merely a league-average pitcher at this point (and his ERA+ since coming over from Boston is a robust 110) he is way, way above the curve in terms of durability. Outside of Halladay and Sabathia I don't know if there's another pitcher in MLB that has been as consistently ready to take the ball as BA.* 113 starts (missing at most a half dozen during those three-plus seasons), 716 IP. His rubber arm adds several million to his value, as far as I'm concerned, especially given this team's reliance on young pitching.

* I checked this on B-R, and am confident no one in baseball has started as many games as Arroyo since he came over before the 2006 season. Arroyo led the Majors in starts in '06 and '08 and was one off the NL lead in '07.

RedsManRick
05-27-2009, 10:56 PM
Arroyo has always been this way -- hit or miss. When he's on, he's tough to hit. When he's off, he's really off. He's a great example of why looking at a performance average isn't the best way to evaluate a player who performs in chunks of innings at a time.

traderumor
05-27-2009, 11:10 PM
Arroyo has always been this way -- hit or miss. When he's on, he's tough to hit. When he's off, he's really off. He's a great example of why looking at a performance average isn't the best way to evaluate a player who performs in chunks of innings at a time.Some of his innings make me blow chunks.

HokieRed
05-27-2009, 11:11 PM
I think he's generally undervalued. At the beginning of the season, when you're figuring out how to get the innings covered for the year, he's still the guy on this staff you can most confidently write down 200 for. That's very important.

PuffyPig
05-27-2009, 11:12 PM
Arroyo is a slightly below average starter. He is what he is-rotation glue.

There are 150 starters in the majors (30x5).

A slightly below average starter would be one that ranked about 80th in the majors.

That would be a guy who went 8-10, with a 5.25 ERA.

That's not Arroyo, who averaged about 14-11, 4.25 in 3.3 seasons with the Reds.

durl
05-27-2009, 11:29 PM
He's 7-3. I have no problem with that record.

kaldaniels
05-27-2009, 11:30 PM
There are 150 starters in the majors (30x5).

A slightly below average starter would be one that ranked about 80th in the majors.

That would be a guy who went 8-10, with a 5.25 ERA.

That's not Arroyo, who averaged about 14-11, 4.25 in 3.3 seasons with the Reds.

Oh right on Puffy :beerme:

Please, someone, give me a list of 75 better starting pitchers than Bronson and I will quit sticking up for him.

TheNext44
05-27-2009, 11:37 PM
Arroyo has always been this way -- hit or miss. When he's on, he's tough to hit. When he's off, he's really off. He's a great example of why looking at a performance average isn't the best way to evaluate a player who performs in chunks of innings at a time.

That's a great point.

We use performance averages for hitters and relief pitchers, since they don't have a strong effect in the outcome of the game as individuals. Bruce can go 3-5 with a homer in many loses and 0-5 in many wins. By using averages of all his games, we can see how much he produces (and helps the team win) compared to others.

But a starting pitcher's performance strongly dictates the outcome of the game. Not all the time, but I think enough that you can judge a starting pitcher based on how he performs in each game better then by his overall stats.

I think when evaluating starting pitchers, the best way is to see how often they keep your team in the game, or at least pitch so that your team should be in the game.

I came up with a stat that is like a quality start, but is not so rigid. Basically, you figure out roughly what your league average in runs allowed per game is, and if your starting pitcher equals or bests that ERA in that game, he gets a quality start. I don't worry about how many innings, since 99% of the time that a pitcher is taken out early, it's because he is getting shelled. Managers rarely pinch hit for pitchers in a tie game in the 4th.

Anyway, the NL is scoring 4.63 runs a game this season. So every starting pitcher who has an ERA of 4.63 or less in the game that he starts, gets a quality start. (or whatever you want to call it.) That means that a pitcher who gives up 3 runs, must go at least 6 innings, 4 runs, at least 8 innings. Other years are different, as is the American League.

The league average the last three years for starters who qualify for the ERA title is just above 19 quality starts a season.

Here is how Bronson has done in his career:

04: 18
05: 20
06: 22
07: 21
08: 19
09: 6 (on pace for 20)

Read into it whatever you may.

fisch11
05-27-2009, 11:43 PM
You have to kind of throw his ERA out of the talk when evaluating his season (or any season). Simply put, when he's good he's good, and when he's bad he's REALLY bad. Like jojo, Joseph, and others have noted though, he is the type of innings eater that every rotation needs. You have to thank Wayne Krivsky after every one of these outings for making one of the best trades of this decade. Wily Mo who?

TheNext44
05-27-2009, 11:46 PM
There are 150 starters in the majors (30x5).

A slightly below average starter would be one that ranked about 80th in the majors.

That would be a guy who went 8-10, with a 5.25 ERA.

That's not Arroyo, who averaged about 14-11, 4.25 in 3.3 seasons with the Reds.

When using ERA, you should only use the NL, as AL ERA's are usually around .15 - .25 points higher due to the DH.

Also, JoJo might have been referring only to pitchers who qualify for the ERA title. I have no idea where Arroyo is among those pitchers, but he is probably near the middle or right below it, since there really aren't that many. Closer to 50 a year in each league and they are mostly very good or they wouldn't keep getting starts.

Still, I think when you add in his durability, and the fact that he is very good at keeping the team in the game, Arroyo is better than average.

M2
05-27-2009, 11:56 PM
If Arroyo's an innings eater, he's an elite innings eater. Personally, I hate the term "innings eater." Like pitching lots of innings is something to be sneered at. It's not. An effective pitcher who can reliably deliver 200+ IP spares you from all kinds of middle relief malfeasance.

cincinnati chili
05-28-2009, 12:09 AM
If Arroyo's an innings eater, he's an elite innings eater. Personally, I hate the term "innings eater." Like pitching lots of innings is something to be sneered at. It's not. An effective pitcher who can reliably deliver 200+ IP spares you from all kinds of middle relief malfeasance.

I agree with this point in principle, put don't like Arroyo version 2008-2009 as the poster boy for the principle. Without looking it up, I believe that the Reds middle relief corps have committed less "malfeasance" than Arroyo during this period, as measured by ERA.

VR
05-28-2009, 12:22 AM
As a #2 starter....I was never comfortable.

As a #3 or #4 starter.....I love him.


Above average pitcher, especially with GABP as his home field.

Decent hitting pitcher.

Great energy, hustle, defense....he's a gamer.

Reds1
05-28-2009, 12:26 AM
Since his blow up last year I think they said he had 17 wins - 18 after tonight and only Roy Oswalt had more wins. That's versus everyone and keep in mind the Reds were under .500 last year. He eats up innings and has been getting the Ws. If he's your Ace you probably aren't pleased, but he's #4 here and I bet you could put an argument that he's the best number 4 over the past 2 seasons. You just have to live with an outing every now and then were the curve is hanging.

VR
05-28-2009, 12:44 AM
Since his blow up last year I think they said he had 17 wins - 18 after tonight and only Roy Oswalt had more wins. That's versus everyone and keep in mind the Reds were under .500 last year. He eats up innings and has been getting the Ws. If he's your Ace you probably aren't pleased, but he's #4 here and I bet you could put an argument that he's the best number 4 over the past 2 seasons. You just have to live with an outing every now and then were the curve is hanging.

His 19th win in the last calendar year....and 18th since June 29th of last year. That is just remarkable for a team that was below .500 during that time.

WVRedsFan
05-28-2009, 01:24 AM
I never (well almost never) take salary into account when judging a player. I figure that's the FO's job. All I am concerned with is performance and only get riled when guys like Freel and Lincoln get ridiculous contracts. If they performed, I have no gripes. Having said that, Arroyo is no different from Kyle Lohse. Lohse was Jeckyl and Hyde. Once start he looked like Cy Young and the next like Josh Fogg. That's an extreme, but Arroyo is no different. When he's good, he's very good and when he's bad, he's very bad. I echo redsmetz when he said that two bad preformances has hie ERA out of sync. Take those away and he's our ace. Hands down.

I haven't done the research and probably will not, but it seems to me that Bronson is doing a great job, but you never know what will happen in five days. Tonight, I made the proclamation that Bronson was having a bad night in the first inning. Lo and behold, he pitches a gem. Such is the case with Arroyo. You just never know and in the end, he's does OK. I like his attitude.

WebScorpion
05-28-2009, 04:02 AM
He's the best #4 pitcher in all of baseball. I really like this rotation...they seem to feed off each other and they're just different enough that opponents can't seem to get locked in. If one of Cueto or Volquez were a lefty, it would be a perfect group. If (or should I say when?) Cueto and Volquez (and eventually Bailey) can learn what Harang and Arroyo know about pitching, they might be scary good.:eek:

mth123
05-28-2009, 04:11 AM
Over the course of a sesaon Arroyo puts up a lot of games that gives his team a solid chance to win. A few stinkers may make the stats look poor for a while, but this isn't fantasy baseball where one ERA ruining start can impact the entire season for the team. It really impacts only one game (maybe a couple others if the bullpen gets burnt up). Over the course of the year a guy like Arroyo, who pitches a lot of innings while keeping the team in position to win a lot more often than not, is exactly what every team covets for the middle of its rotation. If the expectations are for a him to be a no doubt stopper who you want to have the ball to stop a losing streak or dominate the opponent to the point of demoralizing them, well, he's not that. Of course there or only 4 or 5 of those in all of baseball.

I agree with JoJo's point that Arroyo should just be given the ball and let him do his thing until the team has 5 better guys to push him out of the rotation. I don't think that will happen any time soon and its not just the fact that the Reds have no one else. I don't see a team in baseball with 5 better guys.

Eric_the_Red
05-28-2009, 05:11 AM
If his salary were a few million less, I think you would hear less complaints about him as a pitcher. But I'm not going to hold what he makes against him. Judging him strictly as a pitcher, I think you have to be pleased with his production, especially as a #3-4 starter as many on this thread have pointed out.

His salary is better used to judge the FO, IMO.

lollipopcurve
05-28-2009, 07:40 AM
Underrated. And his underrated stats -- innings pitched, starts, quality starts, wins. Elite durability. The willingness to start on 3 days on occasion. As noted, pretty good with the bat. This stuff adds up.

And, probably the most creative Reds pitcher, stuff-wise, I can remember.

jojo
05-28-2009, 08:13 AM
Arroyo is basically aging rotation glue who gets to pitch to pitchers:



Arroyo
IP/G K/9 BB/9 FIP
2006 6.9 6.9 2.4 4.12
2007 6.2 6.7 2.7 4.45
2008 5.9 7.3 3.1 4.54
2009 6.2 4.7 3.4 5.75




ML ave
IP/G K/9 BB/9 FIP
2006 5.8 6.2 3.1 4.67
2007 5.8 6.3 3.1 4.54
2008 5.8 6.5 3.1 4.44
2009 5.8 6.6 3.4 4.54


There is nothing really underrated about him. The Reds had him on the cheap for his first three years and now they are probably going to overpay him a bit the next 2-3 years.

The Reds don't have anyone who should push Arroyo out of the rotation.

Give him the ball and grin when guys are getting out and bear it when guys are getting hits.

Reds1
05-28-2009, 08:19 AM
HE's a guy you can almost know in the 1st inning, but you really can't take him out because he's a gamer and sometimes has a rough 1st inning and gets more innings with limited damage.

SMcGavin
05-28-2009, 08:21 AM
If Arroyo's an innings eater, he's an elite innings eater. Personally, I hate the term "innings eater." Like pitching lots of innings is something to be sneered at. It's not. An effective pitcher who can reliably deliver 200+ IP spares you from all kinds of middle relief malfeasance.

Absolutely. Arroyo's skill level is that of an average pitcher, the thing that adds value for him is the durability. Not only does he save middle relief innings, he saves you from having to dig into AAA for spot starts from guys who aren't very good.

Scrap Irony
05-28-2009, 09:07 AM
Innings trump virtually every other pitching stat. They're so important, they should be doubled when providing a picture of a pitcher's effectiveness. And Arroyo provides innings.

He's an above average pitcher overall who can be relied on to provide five or so truly horrid starts in a season, ten so-so starts, and 20 or so quality starts.

That means the team that owns Arroyo has a legitimate shot at winning around 20 of his starts. A team with five Arroyo starters has around a 60% winning percentage, all things being equal. (This also assumes three years of porous D and lack of range from his Cincinnati teammates.)

That'd be a top #3 or a below average #2 starter.

bucksfan2
05-28-2009, 09:07 AM
Underrated. And his underrated stats -- innings pitched, starts, quality starts, wins. Elite durability. The willingness to start on 3 days on occasion. As noted, pretty good with the bat. This stuff adds up.

And, probably the most creative Reds pitcher, stuff-wise, I can remember.

Absolutely. IMO if Arroyo didn't have his run as a Red Sox he would be largely unheard of throughout baseball. He will throw up a stinker once in a while but I will gladly take 3 awful starts in a year along with 20 above average starts.

Thom (I believe) kept throwing out that since Arroyo's blow up in Toronto only one pitcher in all of baseball has more wins than Arroyo, baseball's best Halliday. While wins may not be the best method to judge a starting pitcher, they still have a lot of value. He left the game after the 5th inning with his team winning. He was nails the second half of last season, and if you take his two poor starts away he has an era of <3 this season.

I thought it was funny when it was being suggested that the Reds acquirer Davis to start and throw Arroyo into the pen. IMO Arroyo may be the most valuable pitcher on the Reds staff. He doesn't miss a start, he request to take the ball on short rest, and most of the time he pitches 6+ innings. He doesn't have the stuff that Harang, Cueto, or Volquez have, but he is pretty reliable.

jojo
05-28-2009, 09:10 AM
Alright, this "he's a warrior" thing is getting a little hyperbolic.... :cool:

Scrap Irony
05-28-2009, 09:13 AM
Who said anything about being a warrior?

TRF
05-28-2009, 09:25 AM
If Arroyo's an innings eater, he's an elite innings eater. Personally, I hate the term "innings eater." Like pitching lots of innings is something to be sneered at. It's not. An effective pitcher who can reliably deliver 200+ IP spares you from all kinds of middle relief malfeasance.

Regardless of what you think of Arroyo, yesterday's CG will go down as one of several key games for the Reds this season. The Reds used 5 relievers Tuesday, 3 on Monday and four on Sunday. Heading into an off day the bullpen got the day off. Considering the stretch against NL Central opponents, that is absolutely huge. It won't be THE defining moment of the season, but it will be one of them.

lollipopcurve
05-28-2009, 09:37 AM
Arroyo is a slightly below average starter.

You'd rather have more than 50% of the starters in the major leagues over Arroyo, jojo?

jojo
05-28-2009, 11:14 AM
You'd rather have more than 50% of the starters in the major leagues over Arroyo, jojo?

I'm saying Arroyo is what he is- a mid rotation guy who is moving to the end of the line rather than toward the front...

It's not a slam on Arroyo. I've argued with people who have maintained that he is/has been overpaid.

As a Red, he's been something like an average starting pitcher who has been able to be average over a lot of innings.

It's just that logging lots of innings doesn't trump peripherals. For instance, an Arroyo with a K/9 less than 6 isn't a big plus over 200 innings.

traderumor
05-28-2009, 11:16 AM
I'm saying Arroyo is what he is- a mid rotation guy who is moving to the end of the line rather than toward the front...

It's not a slam on Arroyo. I've argued with people who have maintained that he is/has been overpaid.

As a Red, he's been something like an average starting pitcher who has been able to be average over a lot of innings.

It's just that logging lots of innings doesn't trump peripherals. For instance, an Arroyo with a K/9 less than 6 isn't a big plus over 200 innings.One thing about innings, though, is that they are accumulated by consistency and health. Guys getting rocked or missing 5-6 turns a year do not rack up innings. It isn't like he is being left out there as a sacrificial lamb. He has to be keeping his team in the game most of the time if he is accumulating 200+ innings a year.

fisch11
05-28-2009, 11:18 AM
Since his blow up last year I think they said he had 17 wins - 18 after tonight and only Roy Oswalt had more wins. That's versus everyone and keep in mind the Reds were under .500 last year. He eats up innings and has been getting the Ws. If he's your Ace you probably aren't pleased, but he's #4 here and I bet you could put an argument that he's the best number 4 over the past 2 seasons. You just have to live with an outing every now and then were the curve is hanging.

Roy Halladay instead of Roy Oswalt. That is a remarkable state though, even knowing that W's are an overrated stat when discussing pitchers.

M2
05-28-2009, 11:30 AM
I agree with this point in principle, put don't like Arroyo version 2008-2009 as the poster boy for the principle. Without looking it up, I believe that the Reds middle relief corps have committed less "malfeasance" than Arroyo during this period, as measured by ERA.

I expect his ERA+ to climb back over 100 as this season progresses, though he only clawed back to 95 last season.

Yet better performance by your middle relief corps goes hand-in-hand with Arroyo's innings. He takes away innings from the Randy Keislers and Ricky Stones of the world. Technically, if a starting pitcher is carrying a good innings load, the relief corps should look better in comparison. I can tell you this, it works in Strat. Generally speaking, the less your relievers pitch, the better they do.

jojo, what's the ML averages your posting there? Is it for all pitchers or just starting pitchers? My suspicion is if you take take the median performance of starting pitchers, and feel free to make that NL only, Arroyo's value becomes a little easier to spot. Better pitchers throw more innings and that drags up the mean, masking the value of solid, though unspectacular pitchers like Arroyo when they get compared to the average.

RANDY IN INDY
05-28-2009, 11:46 AM
For the Reds pitching staff, I think Arroyo is "golden." He takes the ball every 5th day and gives you a boatload of innings and a chance to win, nearly every time he goes to the mound. He will have those days when he is awful, but I've seen enough guys that give you that and can't get out of the 4th or 5th inning the majority of the time. Arroyo has a good track record and you know exactly what you are going to get. He battles when he doesn't have his best stuff. On this staff, I'll take Arroyo every 5th day and be happy with all those innings that he devours.

bucksfan2
05-28-2009, 11:47 AM
I'm saying Arroyo is what he is- a mid rotation guy who is moving to the end of the line rather than toward the front...

It's not a slam on Arroyo. I've argued with people who have maintained that he is/has been overpaid.

As a Red, he's been something like an average starting pitcher who has been able to be average over a lot of innings.

It's just that logging lots of innings doesn't trump peripherals. For instance, an Arroyo with a K/9 less than 6 isn't a big plus over 200 innings.

I think terms like below average or mid rotation guys get thrown out there a little too much. Arroyo is no world beater but JoJo can you name 60 pitchers, right now in the majors, that are better than Arroyo?

knuckler
05-28-2009, 12:31 PM
I couldn't even begin to come up with data one way or the other, but I always wonder if Arroyo is more dependent on the home plate umpire than the rest of the staff. Since he doesn't have the stuff to challenge hitters directly, it seems that an umpire who won't call that back-door breaking ball on the outside corner, forcing Arroyo to come more over the plate, would have a disproportionate effect. Maybe there is an umpire or two that would be reasonable to shuffle around for him to avoid!

jojo
05-28-2009, 01:08 PM
I think terms like below average or mid rotation guys get thrown out there a little too much. Arroyo is no world beater but JoJo can you name 60 pitchers, right now in the majors, that are better than Arroyo?

Yes.

Scrap Irony
05-28-2009, 01:12 PM
I find that hard to believe, jojo. Perephials are not the end-all of the effectiveness of a pitcher. That's why they're called perephials.

TheNext44
05-28-2009, 01:16 PM
I'm saying Arroyo is what he is- a mid rotation guy who is moving to the end of the line rather than toward the front...

It's not a slam on Arroyo. I've argued with people who have maintained that he is/has been overpaid.

As a Red, he's been something like an average starting pitcher who has been able to be average over a lot of innings.

It's just that logging lots of innings doesn't trump peripherals. For instance, an Arroyo with a K/9 less than 6 isn't a big plus over 200 innings.

Peripherals are a great judge of talent, they tell us what a pitchers talent and skill level is. That usually translates into being a good judge of performance. Guys with such and such peripherals usually have such and such performance stats. But what about guys like Arroyo who out perform their peripherals, over a six year period?

In his last 6 years as a starter, when he became a regular in his team's rotation, Arroyo has been 69-59 with a 4.17 ERA. I have no idea how to translate his peripherals into W/L and ERA, but I would bet a Greg Maddox rookie card that his actual #'s are better than his projected one.

If you are saying that in terms of talent and skill, Arroyo is an average, or slightly below average pitcher, I would agree with you. However, his actual performance, which is what should really count, is above average.

TheNext44
05-28-2009, 01:19 PM
Yes.

Okay, JoJo....

Name those pitchers!

(Sorry, used to love Name That Tune as a kid)

Not saying you can't but would love to see the list.

jojo
05-28-2009, 01:22 PM
I think terms like below average or mid rotation guys get thrown out there a little too much. Arroyo is no world beater but JoJo can you name 60 pitchers, right now in the majors, that are better than Arroyo?


Peripherals are a great judge of talent, they tell us what a pitchers talent and skill level is. That usually translates into being a good judge of performance. Guys with such and such peripherals usually have such and such performance stats. But what about guys like Arroyo who out perform their peripherals, over a six year period?

In his last 6 years as a starter, when he became a regular in his team's rotation, Arroyo has been 69-59 with a 4.17 ERA. I have no idea how to translate his peripherals into W/L and ERA, but I would bet a Greg Maddox rookie card that his actual #'s are better than his projected one.

If you are saying that in terms of talent and skill, Arroyo is an average, or slightly below average pitcher, I would agree with you. However, his actual performance, which is what should really count, is above average.

Arroyo hasn't consistently posted an ERA that outperformed his peripherals. Essentially 2006 drives his ERA as a Red.



ERA FIP
2004 4.03 3.92
2005 4.51 4.57
2006 3.29 4.12
2007 4.23 4.45
2008 4.77 4.54
2009 5.79 6.08

Caveat Emperor
05-28-2009, 01:34 PM
Yet better performance by your middle relief corps goes hand-in-hand with Arroyo's innings. He takes away innings from the Randy Keislers and Ricky Stones of the world. Technically, if a starting pitcher is carrying a good innings load, the relief corps should look better in comparison. I can tell you this, it works in Strat. Generally speaking, the less your relievers pitch, the better they do.

Going along with that -- the 2009 Reds are relying on two 39 year olds(Weathers & Rhodes) as their primary setup men. Every night you can get 7IP out of a starter is a night you can give one of those two guys off. 8IP gives them both a night off.

For this team to be successful down the stretch, if indeed they have the talent to continue competing for a playoff spot, they can't afford to be piling the innings on their bullpen early in the season.

jojo
05-28-2009, 01:41 PM
I find that hard to believe, jojo. Perephials are not the end-all of the effectiveness of a pitcher. That's why they're called perephials.

They're called peripherals because they isolate what a pitcher can control from the noise of environment and teammates etc...

Rojo
05-28-2009, 01:50 PM
Bill James made the point that you'd rather have a durable "B" than a brittle "A" because the brittle "A" will get a back up "C" into too many games.

Arroyo pushes 50 innings of dreck back to Louisville.

Having said all that I'd keep a sharp eye on his K/9.

traderumor
05-28-2009, 01:53 PM
Bill James made the point that you'd rather have a durable "B" than a brittle "A" because the brittle "A" will get a back up "C" into too many games.

Arroyo pushes 50 innings of dreck back to Louisville.

Having said all that I'd keep a sharp eye on his K/9.Ah, Ben Sheets vs. Bronson Arroyo. Great point.

bucksfan2
05-28-2009, 01:59 PM
Yes.

Where is the list? I will start it off with two off the Reds staff. Harang and Cueto.

Rojo
05-28-2009, 02:05 PM
Ah, Ben Sheets vs. Bronson Arroyo. Great point.

Great comp. Knuckleballers often have this kind of value.

OnBaseMachine
05-28-2009, 02:06 PM
Where is the list? I will start it off with two off the Reds staff. Harang and Cueto.

Add Volquez to that list. I'm a big fan of Arroyo, but he's our fourth best starter, IMO.

traderumor
05-28-2009, 02:06 PM
Great comp. Knuckleballers often have this kind of value.Bronson pitches like a knuckleballer, except he actually has some velocity. You know that curve is coming, but when it is dancing, you can't seem to pull the trigger or center it when you do.

jojo
05-28-2009, 02:09 PM
Where is the list? I will start it off with two off the Reds staff. Harang and Cueto.

Arroyo would have to fight just to make the top ten starters in Cincy over the last homestand.

bucksfan2
05-28-2009, 02:24 PM
Add Volquez to that list. I'm a big fan of Arroyo, but he's our fourth best starter, IMO.

I was hoping someone would say that. IMO it is a toss up. Volquez has the better stuff but has the tendency to throw more pitch limiting how deep he can go into a game. I think right now I am trying to figure out what Volquez will settle down into. Is he the 2008 first half or second half Volquez? Will he learn how to pitch more efficiently? Will he be able to cut down on his walks? Cut down on his 3-2 counts?

I really think Arroyo tends to be under rated. His era may always be skewed because he throws in a clunker every once in a while. Last season he had 3 games in which he gave up 7,8, and 10 earned runs but he also had 18 quality starts and for the 4th straight season went over 200 innings pitched. IMO a legit arguement could be made that Arroyo, right now, is more valuable to the Reds than Volquez.

CaiGuy
05-28-2009, 02:26 PM
Arroyo's ERA is not really "skewed." Given his performance, it is right where you would expect it to be.

And that isn't necessarily a bad thing (prior to the start of this year).

OnBaseMachine
05-28-2009, 02:30 PM
I was hoping someone would say that. IMO it is a toss up. Volquez has the better stuff but has the tendency to throw more pitch limiting how deep he can go into a game. I think right now I am trying to figure out what Volquez will settle down into. Is he the 2008 first half or second half Volquez? Will he learn how to pitch more efficiently? Will he be able to cut down on his walks? Cut down on his 3-2 counts?

I really think Arroyo tends to be under rated. His era may always be skewed because he throws in a clunker every once in a while. Last season he had 3 games in which he gave up 7,8, and 10 earned runs but he also had 18 quality starts and for the 4th straight season went over 200 innings pitched. IMO a legit arguement could be made that Arroyo, right now, is more valuable to the Reds than Volquez.

Even with Volquez's struggles this season, his ERA is still a very solid 4.25 with an ERA+ of 108. I'd take Volquez over Arroyo, and it's not even close IMO. Even with his efficiency problems, Volquez still finished with 196 innings pitched last season and would have cracked 200 IP if not for the Reds skipping his last start of the season.

I do agree with ya that Arroyo is underrated. He's a near lock to giva ya 200 innings at around league average ERA every season.

VR
05-28-2009, 02:45 PM
Having said all that I'd keep a sharp eye on his K/9.

This has been the dramatic change in Arroyo this year. The biggest concern when BA was acquired was his K rate (after a dismal '05 showing), and yet he had very good numbers in 06-07....and then a career best 7.33/ 9 last year.
Suddenly he's back to that '05 level for k's....but on a night like last night had the hitter's off balance all night and chucked only 92 pitches.

Is it his arm, or more of a 'pitch to contact' strategy with Hernandez pitch calling?

Eric_the_Red
05-28-2009, 03:17 PM
Bill James made the point that you'd rather have a durable "B" than a brittle "A" because the brittle "A" will get a back up "C" into too many games.

Arroyo pushes 50 innings of dreck back to Louisville.

Having said all that I'd keep a sharp eye on his K/9.

Yep. Many are quick to want to dump Arroyo, large contract or not, but fail to consider who would replace him. Do those that want Arroyo gone or sent to the pen honestly believe that this team would be better served with Bailey or Maloney pitching in his place? Based on what?

As for K/9, some players that have a lower K/9 for their careers than Arroyo does: Tim Wakefield, Greg Maddux, Bret Saberhagen, Orel Hershiser, Gaylord Perry. Having a 200 inning starter has a value that cannot easily be weighed, IMO.

Strikes Out Looking
05-28-2009, 03:25 PM
You do not dump Arroyo until you have someone that can take his place. Getting rid of his salary would be great, but replacing him will not be easy unitl Homer/Maloney/et al. show they they are ready to be big league starters.

RANDY IN INDY
05-28-2009, 03:42 PM
This has been the dramatic change in Arroyo this year. The biggest concern when BA was acquired was his K rate (after a dismal '05 showing), and yet he had very good numbers in 06-07....and then a career best 7.33/ 9 last year.
Suddenly he's back to that '05 level for k's....but on a night like last night had the hitter's off balance all night and chucked only 92 pitches.

Is it his arm, or more of a 'pitch to contact' strategy with Hernandez pitch calling?

Hanigan is Arroyo's "pitch caller." They seem to work well together.

Rojo
05-28-2009, 04:16 PM
As for K/9, some players that have a lower K/9 for their careers than Arroyo does: Tim Wakefield, Greg Maddux, Bret Saberhagen, Orel Hershiser, Gaylord Perry.

You don't have to be Nolan Ryan, I get that, but all those guys had career K/9's at 6 or above.

It's early but under 5K/9 for the season would be a little troubling.

Rojo
05-28-2009, 04:18 PM
You do not dump Arroyo until you have someone that can take his place. Getting rid of his salary would be great, but replacing him will not be easy unitl Homer/Maloney/et al. show they they are ready to be big league starters.

But everyone -- fans, writers and front offices -- thinks its easy. Kind of like great glove/no hit shorstops, they grow on trees until you actually need one.

VR
05-28-2009, 05:00 PM
Hanigan is Arroyo's "pitch caller." They seem to work well together.

Ahh, good point.

Any info on his velocity this year? I haven't been paying that close of attention. Outside of an issue w/ that....his lower #'s almost have to be more strategic in nature.

Eric_the_Red
05-28-2009, 09:53 PM
You don't have to be Nolan Ryan, I get that, but all those guys had career K/9's at 6 or above.

It's early but under 5K/9 for the season would be a little troubling.

Career K/9
Arroyo: 6.2
Wakefield: 6.1
Maddux: 6.1
Saberhagen: 6.0
Hershiser: 5.8
Perry: 5.9

Question: Would you rather have the league leader in wins or K/9? How about quality starts or K/9? Innings pitched? Yep, me too.

jojo
05-28-2009, 10:02 PM
Career K/9
Arroyo: 6.2
Wakefield: 6.1
Maddux: 6.1
Saberhagen: 6.0
Hershiser: 5.8
Perry: 5.9

Question: Would you rather have the league leader in wins or K/9? How about quality starts or K/9? Innings pitched? Yep, me too.

Walk rate is the flip-side of the equation that also needs to be considered.

That said, I could give a rip about a pitcher's past win total and ERA-driven stats when considering his future. Personally, I'd take a starter with a high K/9, low BB/9 over a 20 game winner who led the league in quality starts.

Rojo
05-28-2009, 10:05 PM
Career K/9
Arroyo: 6.2
Wakefield: 6.1
Maddux: 6.1
Saberhagen: 6.0
Hershiser: 5.8
Perry: 5.9

Question: Would you rather have the league leader in wins or K/9? How about quality starts or K/9? Innings pitched? Yep, me too.

Not the point. Its fallen under 5 this year. You keep a close eye going forward -- K/9 is a good predictor of future performance.

Eric_the_Red
05-28-2009, 10:09 PM
Who is talking about his future? I'm addressing the OP:


OK, I need help. How are folks thinking about Bronson at this point?


I don't see how anyone could rationally argue that the best move for the team would be to move Arroyo to the pen and insert Bailey/Maloney/whoever into his spot.

TheNext44
05-28-2009, 10:42 PM
Walk rate is the flip-side of the equation that also needs to be considered.

That said, I could give a rip about a pitcher's past win total and ERA-driven stats when considering his future. Personally, I'd take a starter with a high K/9, low BB/9 over a 20 game winner who led the league in quality starts.

Me too. Easily. But that is judging a guy based on one or two years of performance. Peripherals are much better at predicting the future than counting or performance stats when the data is limited.

But we are not limited to just looking at what Bronson has done over a year or two. He has a very extensive, very consistent record. No need to go to peripherals to predict his future. As long as he is healthy, he will win 10-15 games, have an ERA around 4.15 and have around 20 quality starts.

I am not so sure that I would take a Scherzer or Volstad over an Arroyo right now, salaries excluded, since they probably will be better than him over the next three years, but they also could be total busts. If I had the choice of 5 Scherzer and Volstads over 5 Arroyo's, I'd take 5 young guns, since odds are a few of them will become Aces. But if I had to pick one young gun over Arroyo, it would be close.

jojo
05-28-2009, 10:56 PM
Me too. Easily. But that is judging a guy based on one or two years of performance. Peripherals are much better at predicting the future than counting or performance stats when the data is limited.

But we are not limited to just looking at what Bronson has done over a year or two. He has a very extensive, very consistent record. No need to go to peripherals to predict his future. As long as he is healthy, he will win 10-15 games, have an ERA around 4.15 and have around 20 quality starts.

I am not so sure that I would take a Scherzer or Volstad over an Arroyo right now, salaries excluded, since they probably will be better than him over the next three years, but they also could be total busts. If I had the choice of 5 Scherzer and Volstads over 5 Arroyo's, I'd take 5 young guns, since odds are a few of them will become Aces. But if I had to pick one young gun over Arroyo, it would be close.

Ignoring salaries, I'd trade Arroyo for Scherzer without much hesitation.

TheNext44
05-28-2009, 11:02 PM
Ignoring salaries, I'd trade Arroyo for Scherzer without much hesitation.

I probably would too, but I would hesitate. :cool:

Hoosier Red
05-28-2009, 11:04 PM
Ignoring salaries, I'd trade Arroyo for Scherzer without much hesitation.

Well that's 5. I'd still like to see 70 more guys you'd rather have than Arroyo currently pitching in the majors. Or 43 more that you'd like to see of the NL starters.

jojo
05-28-2009, 11:12 PM
Well that's 5. I'd still like to see 70 more guys you'd rather have than Arroyo currently pitching in the majors. Or 43 more that you'd like to see of the NL starters.

He's already been in a life or death struggle just to be considered in the top ten on the last home stand IMHO...

I don't get why baselines seem to be so offensive BTW.

TheNext44
05-28-2009, 11:43 PM
Here is my list of pitchers who I would rather have than Arroyo or would consider a toss up. I am sure there are a few that people will argue over, but I think it is around 95% accurate.

There are 28 in the AL and 36 in the NL for a total of 64.

If this list is accurate, it puts him somewhere in the middle.

Jon Lester
Josh Beckett
Daisuke Matsuzaka
C.C. Sabathia*
A.J. Burnett
Chien-Ming Wang
Joba Chamberlain
Roy Halladay
James Shields
Matt Garza
Scott Kazmir*
Jeremy Guthrie
Justin Verlander
Rick Porcello
Jeremy Bonderman
Francisco Liriano*
Kevin Slowey
Zack Greinke
Mark Buehrle
Cliff Lee*
Kevin Millwood
Jered Weaver
Joe Saunders*
John Lackey
Felix Hernandez
Jarrod Washburn
Erik Bedard*
Justin Duchscherer

Johan Santana
John Maine
Cole Hamels*
Brett Myers
Javier Vazquez
Derek Lowe
Jair Jurrjens
Josh Johnson
Chris Volstad
Adam Wainwright
Joel Pineiro
Kyle Lohse
Chris Carpenter
Yovani Gallardo
Aaron Harang
Johnny Cueto
Edinson Volquez
Ted Lilly*
Carlos Zambrano
Rich Harden
Sean Marshall
Zach Duke
Wandy Rodriguez
Roy Oswalt
Chad Billingsley
Randy Wolf
Clayton Kershaw
Jake Peavy
Chris Young
Tim Lincecum
Matt Cain
Brandon Webb
Danny Haren
Max Scherzer
Ubaldo Jimenez
Aaron Cook

kaldaniels
05-28-2009, 11:52 PM
Here is my list of pitchers who I would rather have than Arroyo or would consider a toss up. I am sure there are a few that people will argue over, but I think it is around 95% accurate.

There are 28 in the AL and 36 in the NL for a total of 64.

If this list is accurate, it puts him somewhere in the middle.

Jon Lester
Josh Beckett
Daisuke Matsuzaka
C.C. Sabathia*
A.J. Burnett
Chien-Ming Wang
Joba Chamberlain
Roy Halladay
James Shields
Matt Garza
Scott Kazmir*
Jeremy Guthrie
Justin Verlander
Rick Porcello
Jeremy Bonderman
Francisco Liriano*
Kevin Slowey
Zack Greinke
Mark Buehrle
Cliff Lee*
Kevin Millwood
Jered Weaver
Joe Saunders*
John Lackey
Felix Hernandez
Jarrod Washburn
Erik Bedard*
Justin Duchscherer

Johan Santana
John Maine
Cole Hamels*
Brett Myers
Javier Vazquez
Derek Lowe
Jair Jurrjens
Josh Johnson
Chris Volstad
Adam Wainwright
Joel Pineiro
Kyle Lohse
Chris Carpenter
Yovani Gallardo
Aaron Harang
Johnny Cueto
Edinson Volquez
Ted Lilly*
Carlos Zambrano
Rich Harden
Sean Marshall
Zach Duke
Wandy Rodriguez
Roy Oswalt
Chad Billingsley
Randy Wolf
Clayton Kershaw
Jake Peavy
Chris Young
Tim Lincecum
Matt Cain
Brandon Webb
Danny Haren
Max Scherzer
Ubaldo Jimenez
Aaron Cook

A fair list no doubt. Just remember some names on there are relatively fresh. Not arguing, but look at Sean Marshall...the guy has never pitched over 125 innings in a year. Bronson eats 125 innings for breakfast.

But again, a fairly accurate list, which puts Bronson at about a #3 starter (out of a 5 man rotation) leaguewide in your eyes (I assume it does). But isn't it great that a guy who is a #3, is our #4?

As with stocks, past performance is no guarantee of future results so it appears we are judging the present/future value of Bronson in this thread.

But if we were to judge past performance, how many starters have been more valuable to their team over the past 3 years than Bronson. I suspect much less than your ~65 players listed. All that said, nice list.

VR
05-29-2009, 12:16 AM
A fair list no doubt. Just remember some names on there are relatively fresh. Not arguing, but look at Sean Marshall...the guy has never pitched over 125 innings in a year. Bronson eats 125 innings for breakfast.

But again, a fairly accurate list, which puts Bronson at about a #3 starter (out of a 5 man rotation) leaguewide in your eyes (I assume it does). But isn't it great that a guy who is a #3, is our #4?

As with stocks, past performance is no guarantee of future results so it appears we are judging the present/future value of Bronson in this thread.

But if we were to judge past performance, how many starters have been more valuable to their team over the past 3 years than Bronson. I suspect much less than your ~65 players listed. All that said, nice list.

Certainly a best case, subjective list.

You throw ERA, wins, peripherals, quality starts, innings pitched and park adjustments over this year, the last year, last several years or whatever.....I'd bet Arroyo would come in at about the middle of the list presented.

kaldaniels
05-29-2009, 12:24 AM
Certainly a best case, subjective list.

You throw ERA, wins, peripherals, quality starts, innings pitched and park adjustments over this year, the last year, last several years or whatever.....I'd bet Arroyo would come in at about the middle of the list presented.

I'm one of Arroyo's biggest supporters, no argument here. Debates could be made about many names on that list, but as I said, it is a fair list. Presented to an impartial observer you could add Arroyo to that list and he would not look out of place at all.

Topcat
05-29-2009, 02:46 AM
OH MY God ! I saw some guy just post that he would want Kyle Loshe, Aaron Cook , Joel Piniero and some other garbage over Bronson! Salary should not equate into this honestly. I state that because, I have witnessed over past few years exactly how they have spent extra cash and in most cases it has not been well. I like Bronson and hope he continues as a Red till someone comes with an vg offer.

TheNext44
05-29-2009, 03:46 AM
OH MY God ! I saw some guy just post that he would want Kyle Loshe, Aaron Cook , Joel Piniero and some other garbage over Bronson! Salary should not equate into this honestly. I state that because, I have witnessed over past few years exactly how they have spent extra cash and in most cases it has not been well. I like Bronson and hope he continues as a Red till someone comes with an vg offer.

Just to clarify, that was a list of "pitchers who I would rather have than Arroyo or would consider a toss up."

One can argue against even that criteria with the guys you mentioned, like I said, it's a debatable list. But I just want to make clear that this was not a list of guys I would want over Bronson. Just guys who I don't think are worse than he is.

And thanks for pointing out that I forgot to mention salaries. That list is based on every pitching having the same contract.

GAC
05-29-2009, 07:39 AM
Some very good insights overall on here about Bronson.

Jerry says it all for me.... ;)

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9RKIQuiXVrQ

bucksfan2
05-29-2009, 09:00 AM
Jon Lester
Josh Beckett
Daisuke Matsuzaka
C.C. Sabathia*
A.J. Burnett
Chien-Ming Wang
Joba Chamberlain
Roy Halladay
James Shields
Matt Garza
Scott Kazmir*
Jeremy Guthrie
Justin Verlander
Rick Porcello
Jeremy Bonderman
Francisco Liriano*
Kevin Slowey
Zack Greinke
Mark Buehrle
Cliff Lee*
Kevin Millwood
Jered Weaver
Joe Saunders*
John Lackey
Felix Hernandez
Jarrod Washburn
Erik Bedard*
Justin Duchscherer

Johan Santana
John Maine
Cole Hamels*
Brett Myers
Javier Vazquez
Derek Lowe
Jair Jurrjens
Josh Johnson
Chris Volstad
Adam Wainwright
Joel Pineiro
Kyle Lohse
Chris Carpenter
Yovani Gallardo
Aaron Harang
Johnny Cueto
Edinson Volquez
Ted Lilly*
Carlos Zambrano
Rich Harden
Sean Marshall
Zach Duke
Wandy Rodriguez
Roy Oswalt
Chad Billingsley
Randy Wolf
Clayton Kershaw
Jake Peavy
Chris Young
Tim Lincecum
Matt Cain
Brandon Webb
Danny Haren
Max Scherzer
Ubaldo Jimenez
Aaron Cook

The bolded ones are the ones I wouldn't take over Arroyo. Others I haven't seen enough to know whether to take them over Arroyo or not. I also looked as of right now and didn't take into consideration long term potential. I think a pitcher like Arroyo has more value to the Reds than he does to a larger market team. Here are some pitchers that caught my eye.

Josh Beckett - One of the best pitchers in the game and maybe the best current big game pitcher. Problem is he can be inconsistent and injured from time to time. His stuff and ability are much greater than his overall production. I would take him over Arroyo

Chris Carpenter - Guy just cant stay healthy. Made 5 starts over the past two years and has already spent time on the DL this season. Has much better stuff than Arroyo but with him on the Reds it would mean Ramon Ramirez would get quite a few starts. Give me Arroyo.

Porcello - All the potential in the world and would trade his contract and potential for Arroyo in a heart beat, but as of right now I am not convinced he is a better pitcher, yet.

Rich Harden - Great stuff, can't stay healthy. See Carpenter.

200+ innings, 32+ starts, slightly above average stuff is something that is hard to pass up. A guy like Carpenter and Harden would be great to have for one game or in the post season, but the problem is you don't know if they will be healthy for that one game. Nor do you know how many games they will pitch during the season.

lollipopcurve
05-29-2009, 09:30 AM
I'd throw out Wang, Bonderman, Duchscherer, Harden, Carpenter, Myers because of questionable health, right off the top.

After that, you can debate various names like Duke, Pineiro, Wolf, Marshall, Scherzer.

I'd say it's safe to say Arroyo's in the top 60 starting pitchers in the game -- a solid #3 in what would be a league-average rotation.

Still can't see jojo's classification as below average.

jojo
05-29-2009, 09:34 AM
Still can't see jojo's classification as below average.


Arroyo is basically aging rotation glue who gets to pitch to pitchers:



Arroyo
IP/G K/9 BB/9 FIP
2006 6.9 6.9 2.4 4.12
2007 6.2 6.7 2.7 4.45
2008 5.9 7.3 3.1 4.54
2009 6.2 4.7 3.4 5.75




ML ave
IP/G K/9 BB/9 FIP
2006 5.8 6.2 3.1 4.67
2007 5.8 6.3 3.1 4.54
2008 5.8 6.5 3.1 4.44
2009 5.8 6.6 3.4 4.54


There is nothing really underrated about him. The Reds had him on the cheap for his first three years and now they are probably going to overpay him a bit the next 2-3 years.

The Reds don't have anyone who should push Arroyo out of the rotation.

Give him the ball and grin when guys are getting out and bear it when guys are getting hits.

lollipopcurve
05-29-2009, 09:39 AM
Jojo, as many have pointed out, these stats do not take into account middle relief innings and 6th starter innings Arroyo saves the club by making all his starts and going longer in games than most starters.

Do you acknowledge that to be a weakness in your analysis?

jojo
05-29-2009, 10:55 AM
Jojo, as many have pointed out, these stats do not take into account middle relief innings and 6th starter innings Arroyo saves the club by making all his starts and going longer in games than most starters.

Do you acknowledge that to be a weakness in your analysis?

"League average" for starters quoted above is the average production from pitchers in games they started in the major leagues. It's an appropriate baseline that includes those "6th starter" innings.

Suggesting that based upon his peripherals, Arroyo is aging into a slightly below average starter using such a baseline is pretty informative.

If one doesn't like average, then use replacement level. Concerning his value, it will get one to the same place though.

lollipopcurve
05-29-2009, 11:04 AM
It's an appropriate baseline that includes those "6th starter" innings.

Perhaps I don't understand the metric well enough.

Let me ask this -- does it take into account the middle-relief innings saved? Seems to me Arroyo's ability to pitch late into games saves about 2/3s of an inning of middle relief per game. Over the course of a season, that's about 65 outs, about 2 and one third games.... Pretty significant, I'd say.

M2
05-29-2009, 12:55 PM
Perhaps I don't understand the metric well enough.

Let me ask this -- does it take into account the middle-relief innings saved? Seems to me Arroyo's ability to pitch late into games saves about 2/3s of an inning of middle relief per game. Over the course of a season, that's about 65 outs, about 2 and one third games.... Pretty significant, I'd say.

Undoubtedly, and it's likely quite a bit better than that if you compare Arroyo to the median starting pitcher.

The position average usually winds up at around the 65th-70th percentile because the best players get more playing time. The best starting pitchers accumulate more innings. They drag the mean well north of the median in most cases. That's why we're having a discussion about how Arroyo is average, but he's also roughly a top 60 starter. There actually isn't the conflict we think there is.

If you're an average starting pitcher, that's actually a pretty good thing to be. And it gets even better if that pitcher throws the kind of innings Arroyo does. He might be worth an extra a start compared to the median starting pitcher. On top of that, his ability to take the ball every fifth day without fail means he gets a few extra starts on top of the extra innings. Those are starts not going to your #5 guy, and we know what that can look like. I believe Reds #5 starters in recent years have had a component ERA of Holy Schnikes!

jojo
05-29-2009, 01:11 PM
Undoubtedly, and it's likely quite a bit better than that if you compare Arroyo to the median starting pitcher.

The position average usually winds up at around the 65th-70th percentile because the best players get more playing time. The best starting pitchers accumulate more innings. They drag the mean well north of the median in most cases. That's why we're having a discussion about how Arroyo is average, but he's also roughly a top 60 starter. There actually isn't the conflict we think there is.

If you're an average starting pitcher, that's actually a pretty good thing to be. And it gets even better if that pitcher throws the kind of innings Arroyo does. He might be worth an extra a start compared to the median starting pitcher. On top of that, his ability to take the ball every fifth day without fail means he gets a few extra starts on top of the extra innings. Those are starts not going to your #5 guy, and we know what that can look like. I believe Reds #5 starters in recent years have had a component ERA of Holy Schnikes!

It's absolutely true that "average" isn't a pejorative. Major average has significant value.

lollipopcurve
05-29-2009, 01:13 PM
It's absolutely true that "average" isn't a pejorative.

Are you holding to your claim that Arroyo is below average?

TheNext44
05-29-2009, 01:45 PM
I really don't see a lot of disagreement here.

JoJo is saying that Arroyo, stat wise, is a slightly below average pitcher who can give you more innings than an average pitcher.

I could be wrong, but it seems like the opposing view is that Arroyo might have slightly below average stats, depending on whether you are using median or mean, but that he has more value because he gives the team more innings and has been durable.

Those views seem to be the same, if I understand them and have summarized them correctly.

Please correct me if I am wrong.

nate
05-29-2009, 02:36 PM
I really don't see a lot of disagreement here.

JoJo is saying that Arroyo, stat wise, is a slightly below average pitcher who can give you more innings than an average pitcher.

I could be wrong, but it seems like the opposing view is that Arroyo might have slightly below average stats, depending on whether you are using median or mean, but that he has more value because he gives the team more innings and has been durable.

Those views seem to be the same, if I understand them and have summarized them correctly.

Please correct me if I am wrong.

I don't get it either.

lollipopcurve
05-29-2009, 04:00 PM
I really don't see a lot of disagreement here.

JoJo is saying that Arroyo, stat wise, is a slightly below average pitcher who can give you more innings than an average pitcher.

I could be wrong, but it seems like the opposing view is that Arroyo might have slightly below average stats, depending on whether you are using median or mean, but that he has more value because he gives the team more innings and has been durable.

Those views seem to be the same, if I understand them and have summarized them correctly.

Please correct me if I am wrong.

My disagreement with jojo lies in my belief that the stats he has cited to support his claim that Arroyo is below average are a) thin (many of the stats he cites show Arroyo to be above average) and b) flawed. The stat that does support Arroyo being below average -- recent fielding-independent ERA -- does not account for the ERA benefit he provides the team by logging innings and taking lots of starts, thereby relieving the team of the burden of having middle relievers and 5th/6th starters pitch the equivalent of a handful of games.

jojo
05-29-2009, 05:28 PM
My disagreement with jojo lies in my belief that the stats he has cited to support his claim that Arroyo is below average are a) thin (many of the stats he cites show Arroyo to be above average) and b) flawed. The stat that does support Arroyo being below average -- recent fielding-independent ERA -- does not account for the ERA benefit he provides the team by logging innings and taking lots of starts, thereby relieving the team of the burden of having middle relievers and 5th/6th starters pitch the equivalent of a handful of games.

Bronson hasn't had an above average FIP since '07 and his numbers are suggesting a trend toward back end. Unless he turns something around dramatically, Arroyo's not very likely to be average this season given the scary contact rate hitters have achieved against him during the first third of a season. Really such a trend isn't that out of whack for an arm his age.

Logging innings is great and it's one of the reasons why there were "only" roughly 70 starters in mlb that had a higher WAR (wins above replacement-i.e. runs better than "6th starter") in 2008 that Arroyo. I don't think Bronson is as bad as his current '09 looks but his last 44 starts have collectively been below average and that has to color expectations going forward.

Burning innings with a FIP around 4.50 is fine. In fact, it's exactly what he's being paid to do ($10M/yr and 2 WAR= roughly $10M in value). Burning innings with a FIP approaching 5.00 however is Ryan Franklin.

medford
06-02-2009, 05:19 PM
Thought I'd bump this up for tonight's game. Granted no singular game (or string of games) can tell you the true worth of a player, either good or bad, as we all know (or at least most of us), but tonight's game is a perfect chance for Bronson to "prove" his worth to the Reds or as a major league starting pitching. W/ Voltron only going an inning last night, the Reds desperatly need 7 innings of 4-5 run baseball from their starter (or better), which is kind of Bronson's calling card: Don't get killed, go deep in a game, and give your team a chance to win while giving the Bullpen a night off. He's gone 8 & 9 innings his last 2 games while giving up only 1 run in each game. Another performance like that could go a long way towards winning this 4 game series.

Mario-Rijo
06-02-2009, 05:49 PM
Thought I'd bump this up for tonight's game. Granted no singular game (or string of games) can tell you the true worth of a player, either good or bad, as we all know (or at least most of us), but tonight's game is a perfect chance for Bronson to "prove" his worth to the Reds or as a major league starting pitching. W/ Voltron only going an inning last night, the Reds desperatly need 7 innings of 4-5 run baseball from their starter (or better), which is kind of Bronson's calling card: Don't get killed, go deep in a game, and give your team a chance to win while giving the Bullpen a night off. He's gone 8 & 9 innings his last 2 games while giving up only 1 run in each game. Another performance like that could go a long way towards winning this 4 game series.

Tough lineup for him to navigate, all those LH's and Pujols. He'll need to bring his A game tonight.

Eric_the_Red
06-02-2009, 06:05 PM
This is on Lance's blog today...thought it was appropriate for this thread:

Compare and contrast career numbers
Pitcher A: 74-71, 4.25 ERA, 1.318 WHIP, .270 BA, .321 OBP, .446 SLG, .762 OPS (Harang)
Pitcher B: 78-73, 4.35 ERA, 1.347 WHIP, .268 BA, .329 OBP, .437 SLG, .762 OPS (Arroyo)

OnBaseMachine
06-02-2009, 10:14 PM
Bronson pitched another good game tonight, unfortunately, the boxscore doesn't show it because of Willy Taveras.

VR
06-03-2009, 12:13 AM
Bronson pitched another good game tonight, unfortunately, the boxscore doesn't show it because of Willy Taveras.

Yes...a shame indeed. He should have been out of the 6th w/ only 3 runs. His stuff was good tonight, and the 5 k's were good sign too.

RANDY IN INDY
06-03-2009, 10:45 AM
He pitched very well last night, once he got through the 1st.