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Falls City Beer
05-30-2009, 10:30 PM
Failure is in this organization's genetic code. Full display this weekend--it's almost Gothic. Votto goes mad, like some Hawthorne character, Harang's doppelganger returns from the misty regions, broken bones, blown leads, Mike Lincoln.

So we stand at a crossroads--who are these Reds: the first two months of 2009 or 2001-2008 + this weekend? I'm betting on the latter.

Tony Cloninger
05-30-2009, 10:31 PM
Depends on their intestinal fortitude. If they can find it....then they will champion through this.

Hopefully it does not turn into 1993 where they all dropped like flies by game 100 or so.

Falls City Beer
05-30-2009, 10:37 PM
In the best of circumstances this was probably a team capable of winning only a few over .500. But you're right--can this team forge on to be that team despite adversity or will they succumb to genetics?

RFS62
05-30-2009, 10:38 PM
Failure is in this organization's genetic code. Full display this weekend--it's almost Gothic. Votto goes mad, like some Hawthorne character, Harang's doppelganger returns from the misty regions, broken bones, blown leads, Mike Lincoln.

So we stand at a crossroads--who are these Reds: the first two months of 2009 or 2001-2008 + this weekend? I'm betting on the latter.



Amazing. We laugh at the idea of chemistry but consider a curse that makes the Cubs' goat look like a lucky rabbits foot.

It makes for an entertaining post, but that's about it. No curse here. No Double-Helix of Failure, as clever a play on words as it may be.

Sometimes a cigar is just a cigar.

OnBaseMachine
05-30-2009, 10:39 PM
And I thought I was the king of overreacting. :cool:

RFS62
05-30-2009, 10:42 PM
And I thought I was the king of overreacting. :cool:


Well, let's not minimize your body of work.

:cool:

Falls City Beer
05-30-2009, 10:43 PM
Amazing. We laugh at the idea of chemistry but consider a curse that makes the Cubs' goat look like a lucky rabbits foot.

It makes for an entertaining post, but that's about it. No curse here. No Double-Helix of Failure, as clever a play on words as it may be.

Sometimes a cigar is just a cigar.

Maybe it's just a phrase, but I think you know what I mean. You've seen organizations that fail time and time again--for a lot of reasons, of course, and no it's not a curse--there's an inertia in some organizations (not just ballclubs either) that is almost impossible to overcome. Lack of urgency, acceptance of lower standards of performance, cheapness.

But I like this bunch of players. Can they buck disaster? (Which is a different question than, "can they be good or great?")

remdog
05-30-2009, 10:44 PM
Sometimes a cigar is just a cigar.

I've heard that before (I think it was Bill Clinton) but it is so true. :)

Rem

Kc61
05-30-2009, 10:46 PM
Reds are now 13-10 on the road. They were 13-5 and now have lost five in a row on the road. This isn't surprising at all. The Reds are not a good enough team to have a decisively winning road record. So they were due to lose some road game. Probably 13-10, the current record, is still unsustainable, although it's more reasonable than 13-5.

Reds are now 13-12 at home. They have started to win at home and hopefully will pick up some ground there.

BCubb2003
05-30-2009, 10:48 PM
At least they've banished the Roy Oswalt and the Astros spell.

RFS62
05-30-2009, 10:49 PM
Yeah, I do know what you mean. But the idea that a team, other than the Cubs, of course, could be doomed to such a dismal fate is a bit overly dramatic, IMO.

Personally, I love this team's makeup. Throwing in some adversity definitely adds to the drama, no doubt. But these guys don't know or don't care what the prior incarnations of Reds' suckitude did or didn't do. They're their own men, their own team, their own story.

Falls City Beer
05-30-2009, 10:50 PM
At least they've banished the Roy Oswalt and the Astros spell.

True. It's a start. But maybe that mojo redounds as a crippling counterspell that kneecaps them against the Nationals.

jojo
05-30-2009, 10:50 PM
I guess you could blame their DNA because coming out of camp they projected to be a roughly .500 team.

Personally, I think a better analogy is that they are a factory camaro that needs a little something added if they want to win the street race....

In other words, Walt needs to work a little PCR (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Polymerase_chain_reaction). Walt is the "gene jocky" responsible for the DNA.

TheNext44
05-30-2009, 11:01 PM
Maybe it's just a phrase, but I think you know what I mean. You've seen organizations that fail time and time again--for a lot of reasons, of course, and no it's not a curse--there's an inertia in some organizations (not just ballclubs either) that is almost impossible to overcome. Lack of urgency, acceptance of lower standards of performance, cheapness.

But I like this bunch of players. Can they buck disaster? (Which is a different question than, "can they be good or great?")

I agree with you that for the past "lost decade" (your check is in the mail, Cyclone), the Reds were a Double-Helix of Failure. Don't have to do much research to back up that claim.

But I think the Double-Helix was at first an ownership that valued profit over winning, and a GM that held a "win now at all cost, the future be damned" philosophy.

Then it became an owner with a "win now at all cost, the future be damned" philosophy, and a GM with good scouting skills but no discernible organizational plan whatsoever.

This is not either of those two organizations. I only see one small Helix of failure, and that is a manager that likes to manage like it's 1979. But the owner wants to win and is willing to spend what is necessary, and the GM has a long term plan of building a strong organization deep on pitching and defense.

I just don't see a long downward spiral this year. The Reds may not make the playoffs, but they will contend the rest of the year, and be fun to watch. More importantly, I think they will be a solid playoff team for years to come.

Phhhl
05-30-2009, 11:26 PM
Failure is in this organization's genetic code. Full display this weekend--it's almost Gothic. Votto goes mad, like some Hawthorne character, Harang's doppelganger returns from the misty regions, broken bones, blown leads, Mike Lincoln.

So we stand at a crossroads--who are these Reds: the first two months of 2009 or 2001-2008 + this weekend? I'm betting on the latter.

Is this baseball or an episode of "Dark Shadows"? I can almost hear Kate Bush in the background singing "Wuthering Heights" when I read this aliterative gem. Melodrama is best left to the dramatic arts. This ball club has been presented some problems, but they are unique to this club and have absolutely nothing to do with any kind of "genetic code" or "karma". I usually enjoy your posts, even with the pessimistic tone they predictably have. But, let's see how this set of players handle adversity over a larger sample size before turning all Edgar Allen Poe on the situation. After all, two days ago, they were riding a nice four game winning streak.

KoryMac5
05-30-2009, 11:51 PM
I guess we will have to tune in for tomorrow's episode to find out if they have what it takes to bounce back.

LvJ
05-31-2009, 12:16 AM
The 3-2 game was a 3-2 game. They lost a good, tough game.

Tonight, Harang just imploded. That happens.

Let's get em' tomorrow.

Cooper
05-31-2009, 12:32 AM
Luke warm puke and an eye roll...sorry about your persacution complex...woe is FCB.

Falls City Beer
05-31-2009, 08:35 AM
Luke warm puke and an eye roll...sorry about your persacution complex...woe is FCB.

:confused:

Original post was humor.

RFS62
05-31-2009, 08:47 AM
:confused:

Original post was humor.


Dying is easy, comedy is hard.
~ George Bernard Shaw

I thought it was funny stuff, personally.

nate
05-31-2009, 08:50 AM
Does pollyanna have an antonym?

:cool:

Tommyjohn25
05-31-2009, 10:12 AM
I thought the thread topic was referring to Mike Lincoln and Jared Burton.

Big Klu
05-31-2009, 12:02 PM
Does pollyanna have an antonym?

:cool:

eeyore

Cooper
05-31-2009, 01:57 PM
I just don't get humor anymore. I'll read it again and see if it's funny...................no.

I've got a friend who works at the New Yorker. Maybe he'll be able to explain it to...wait...wait a second...double helix of failure...oh man, that is funny. Good stuff.

I can just see Will Ferrell's next movie "Talladega Nights: Double Helix of Failure".

fearofpopvol1
05-31-2009, 01:58 PM
Failure is in this organization's genetic code. Full display this weekend--it's almost Gothic. Votto goes mad, like some Hawthorne character, Harang's doppelganger returns from the misty regions, broken bones, blown leads, Mike Lincoln.

So we stand at a crossroads--who are these Reds: the first two months of 2009 or 2001-2008 + this weekend? I'm betting on the latter.

Well, you've always said how wonderful and amazing you think Walt is...so at this point, it's on him. He has plenty of players (in the minors) to trade for to get rentals or other players at this point.

Walt also signed Lincoln (to a 2 year deal no less).

Really, the Reds scored enough runs last night to win the game (especially with a pretty inadequate offense). Harang blew it last night.

RFS62
05-31-2009, 01:59 PM
I just don't get humor anymore. I'll read it again and see if it's funny...................no.

I've got a friend who works at the New Yorker. Maybe he'll be able to explain it to...wait...wait a second...double helix of failure...oh man, that is funny. Good stuff.

I can just see Will Ferrell's next movie "Talladega Nights: Double Helix of Failure".


Now THAT really is funny.

:laugh::laugh::laugh:

Edskin
05-31-2009, 03:23 PM
I'll chime in here because I think it's an interesting topic--and (I think) I understand (and agree with) the general point FCB is trying to make.

There are two theories at play here:

1. The hex/goat/curse stuff: I think people use those terms mostly in a fun or literary way. I think very few people actually BELIEVE that there are mystical forces at work to keep certain teams from success.

2. The Losing Culture stuff: THIS, I firmly believe in.

When Steve Bartmann interferred with Moises Alou, I don't think it was a curse at work. But once he did that, I DO believe that EVERYONE on the Cubs, everyone on the Marlins, everyone in the stands, and everyone at home felt the tension and started to believe that the Cubs would lose. And if you don't believe that confidence/mental state doesn't play a role in the success or failure of athletes, you are nuts.

If you are attempting to do ANYTHING and lack confidence in doing it, things become much more difficult.

I believe that as an organization struggles year after year, everyone from the FO to the players to the fans become less confident and begin to believe that bad things will happen. Over time, I do believe this can become a self-fulfilling prophecy and factor into the failure of an organization.

Do I think the Reds lost Saturday night (or any individual game) because they have a losing culture? Of course not-- it's not nearly that black and white. But I do believe that a culture can be created (both good and bad) and once it's created, it is difficult to break.

The Reds are a poor organization...and "poor" might be putting it kindly. They make bad moves and then when they make good moves, they don't seem to be able to make them at the right times (finally get good pitching, but can't hit, etc..) and then you factor in some of the weird things like your best player going on the DL with "stress-related" issues and yes, I think a prevailing feeling of doom and failure can infect a clubhouse and ultimately affect results on the field.

I'm not even using the 2009 Reds as my example here...I like what we're doing and I have legit hope for the first time in awhile. I am trying to make my point in a broader, sports-wide sense.

M2
05-31-2009, 04:00 PM
I'll be the first to agree with the notion that the Reds are headed for choppier waters. That said, the Brewers are a good team capable of making an opponent look real bad.

Falls City Beer
05-31-2009, 04:05 PM
I'll be the first to agree with the notion that the Reds are headed for choppier waters. That said, the Brewers are a good team capable of making an opponent look real bad.

The Cards' so-so pitching just came in and made mincemeat of the Brewers' offense before the Reds. The Brewers are good, but I think the Reds are just getting that bad streak going.

Other teams execute; the Reds fail to execute.

Falls City Beer
05-31-2009, 04:11 PM
Well, you've always said how wonderful and amazing you think Walt is...so at this point, it's on him. He has plenty of players (in the minors) to trade for to get rentals or other players at this point.

Walt also signed Lincoln (to a 2 year deal no less).

Really, the Reds scored enough runs last night to win the game (especially with a pretty inadequate offense). Harang blew it last night.

I'll admit, not trading Harang and Bailey in the offseason was probably a mistake on Walt's part. Definitely a "season too late" for trading them now.

M2
05-31-2009, 04:21 PM
The Cards' so-so pitching just came in and made mincemeat of the Brewers' offense before the Reds. The Brewers are good, but I think the Reds are just getting that bad streak going.

Other teams execute; the Reds fail to execute.

The Cards so-so pitching leads the NL in ERA. I stopped underestimating what Dave Duncan can get out of a pitching staff almost a decade ago.

The Reds certainly could be looking at a slide, but I'd say that's because the team has a small margin for error and Votto's on the shelf.

Falls City Beer
05-31-2009, 04:24 PM
The Cards so-so pitching leads the NL in ERA. I stopped underestimating what Dave Duncan can get out of a pitching staff almost a decade ago.

The Reds certainly could be looking at a slide, but I'd say that's because the team has a small margin for error and Votto's on the shelf.

Yeah, the obvious answer is that it's Votto--but the offense has largely been okay in his absence (though certainly won't be long-term).

The answer no one wants to hear is that the pitching just keeps getting worse. They're not falling off a cliff like they've done in past years, but they're sliding, day by day.

M2
05-31-2009, 04:24 PM
I'll admit, not trading Harang and Bailey in the offseason was probably a mistake on Walt's part. Definitely a "season too late" for trading them now.

Harang had a bad game, but he's got as much value as he did during the offseason. I still expect the Mets to come knocking for him in another month or so.

After what he did in 2008, I don't see how Bailey's value has dropped since the offseason either.

Falls City Beer
05-31-2009, 04:29 PM
Harang had a bad game, but he's got as much value as he did during the offseason. I still expect the Mets to come knocking for him in another month or so.

After what he did in 2008, I don't see how Bailey's value has dropped since the offseason either.

Harang could really extend his career in a big park. I've not been to the Mets' new place--are its dimensions similar to Shea?

M2
05-31-2009, 04:29 PM
The answer no one wants to hear is that the pitching just keeps getting worse. They're not falling off a cliff like they've done in past years, but they're sliding, day by day.

It's reasonable to expect the pitching will wear down a bit. Heading into today, the club was on pace to surrender 713 runs this season. I could see it dropping to a 750-run pace. One main reason is there isn't any real help in the upper minors if one of the starters isn't effective or gets injured.

mth123
05-31-2009, 04:29 PM
Walt made mistakes in the off-season allright. But the names are Willy and Mike not Harang.

Falls City Beer
05-31-2009, 04:31 PM
Walt made mistakes in the off-season allright. But the names are Willy and Mike not Harang.

Come on. Neither of those signings--while bad--has done anything to cripple this organization long-term.

Falls City Beer
05-31-2009, 04:33 PM
It's reasonable to expect the pitching will wear down a bit.

Here's the thing: you could easily say the same thing about the rotations of the Cards and the Brewers. Only Carpenter and to a much lesser extent Gallardo are in the ace class for those teams. But you can bet they won't wear down over the course of the season.

M2
05-31-2009, 04:35 PM
Harang could really extend his career in a big park. I've not been to the Mets' new place--are its dimensions similar to Shea?

Deeper to right center, closer in left center. Higher walls. Still a good place to pitch, particularly for a FB pitcher.

mth123
05-31-2009, 04:42 PM
Come on. Neither of those signings--while bad--has done anything to cripple this organization long-term.

They keep better players off the roster. Taveras isn't one of the team's 13 best position players IMO. The Reds had 5 better options for CF on the roster and left other major problems unaddressed. In Lincoln's case, the Reds ignored the greatest area of cheap depth in the system and committed to a 2 year deal.

These deals may not hamstring the franchise long term, but they are certainly a case of "fiddling while Rome is burning."

Ron Madden
05-31-2009, 08:36 PM
They keep better players off the roster. Taveras isn't one of the team's 13 best position players IMO. The Reds had 5 better options for CF on the roster and left other major problems unaddressed. In Lincoln's case, the Reds ignored the greatest area of cheap depth in the system and committed to a 2 year deal.

These deals may not hamstring the franchise long term, but they are certainly a case of "fiddling while Rome is burning."

Well said, very accurate post in my opinion.

:thumbup:

Ltlabner
05-31-2009, 08:50 PM
But you can bet they won't wear down over the course of the season.

I hear they also walk on water, fart silk and have saved entire species of animals from destruction.