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ChatterRed
05-31-2009, 08:54 PM
Look, I'm not in full panic mode just yet.

We lost the first game by 1 run (3-2) with Cueto being just a little off.
We lost the second game, as Harang self-destructed for one of the few times this year. It happens.
We lost the third game because we had our 5th starter in, and they generally give up about 5 runs, which he did, and our offense was nowhere to be found.

So.........

With Joey Votto out for an extended amount of time, does this team have what it takes to contend? I'm beginning to believe this is nothing more than a .500 club at best with Joey gone, and mainly due to the starting pitching.

Analyzing who the NL contenders are says more than anything. Do we have enough to overtake the Brewers, Cards, and possibly a healthy Cubs team? I'm thinking no at this point. The Dodgers are running away with the NL West without Manny. And the Phils and mega-payroll Mets will most likely duke it out for the NL East and the Wild Card.

Having acknowledged that the NL playoff teams look like it will come down to the Dodgers, Phils, Mets, Cards, Brewers, and possibly the Cubs if they get healthy.............is it time to tinker with the Reds roster, either through trades or call-ups?

If Joey is out the whole month of June, I don't see things getting any better. And the fragile confidence of a young team like the Reds probably won't hold up if they start to fall apart. Not sure I want to wait another month to see what happens.

Dude Rock
05-31-2009, 09:27 PM
What's strange is that after today's game, the Reds are still tied or ahead of the Cards and Brewers in team batting average.

NL
8. Reds .256
8. Cards .256
12. Brewers .250

In team pitching.....
NL
1. Cards 3.60
5. Brewers 3.98
6. Reds 4.10

Ghosts of 1990
05-31-2009, 09:48 PM
I mean, what can we do though. Our AAA hitters are decrepid if you look at the Louisville roster. At the Major League Level, we're depending on a 22 year old, Brandon Phillips, and Johnny Gomes as well as Ramon Hernandez to be significant run producers. It just can't be done. I feel like at home we'll have a better chance and things are going to start to slide when we are away; while at home a lot of these guys can hit at home

Dude Rock
05-31-2009, 09:54 PM
Quality Starts by Reds pitchers:

Harang
11 starts
6+ innings - 7 times
3 or less runs in those 6+ innings (quality start) - 5 times
3 or less runs in less than 6 innings - 2 times

Cueto
10 starts
6+ innings - 9 times (impressive)
3 or less runs in those 6+ innings (quality start) - 7 times
3 or less runs in less than 6 innings - 1 time
(gave up 4 runs in his 2 other games - very impressive)

Arroyo
10 starts
6+ innings - 8 times
The only 2 times he didn't go 6+ innings we know he got lit up for 9 ER in each of two games.
3 or less runs in 6+ innings (quality start) - 6 times

Volquez
8 starts
6+ innings - 4 times
3 or less runs in 6+ innings (quality start) - 3 times
3 or less runs in less than 6 innings - 2 times
In his other 3 starts he gave up 4, 6, and 7 ER's.

Owings
9 starts
6+ innings - 3 times
3 or less earned runs in 6+ innings (quality start) - 2 times
3 or less earned runs in less than 6 innings - 3 times

Recap - quality starts by Reds pitchers:
Cueto - 7
Arroyo - 6
Harang - 5
Volquez - 3
Owings - 2

Recap - 4 or less earned runs given up by Reds starters in any amount of innings:
Cueto - all of his starts - 10 times (10 starts)
Owings - 7 times (9 starts)
Harang - 7 times (11 starts)
Arroyo - 6 times (10 starts)
Volquez - 5 times (8 starts)

It turns out that Cueto has established himself as the ace of the pitching staff at this point, and Arroyo might be second best.

ChatterRed
05-31-2009, 10:23 PM
Well, Burton definitely needs to be sent down and I'd acknowledge signing Lincoln was a mistake, release him, and eat his contract.........then bring up two new relievers and give them a try.

Of our 13 losses this month, 9 have been by 2 or less runs. Amazing what could have been.

Another problem is........our double AA team is loaded with our best prospects and our triple AAA team is depleted and left with junk - Dorn, McDonald, Hopper (excluding Stubbs of course). The double AA Mudcats are on fire. Frazier is batting like .328, Heisey .378, Sean Henry is hovering around .300, and Zack Cozart is starting to hit (up to around .275).......and the pitching is better at double AA too. Travis Wood might be the best pitcher in the organization, but they're content leaving him at Double A. In fact, they have 4 starters in double A with e.r.a.'s under 2.78. Curtis Partch just got moved up and gave up 1 run in 5 innings the other day.......so he might get included in that group eventually. Meanwhile, Danny Dorn can't hit anymore and management seems content to stockpile former borderline major leaguers like Hopper and McDonald at triple A. I don't get it.

DTCromer
05-31-2009, 11:26 PM
My guess is, there will be more threads next week at this time on which one of our prospects will be traded to get a RH bat.

Dude Rock
05-31-2009, 11:36 PM
17 road games and 10 home games in June. We will know alot about this team come July 1.

Looks like this team is a year or two away still. I'm hoping the minors provide us with some more solid future major leaguers. AGon will most likely be gone next year. Might be a good time to move BP to SS. Trade EE away, use Rosales until Frazier is ready to take over 3B. And then hopefully Stubbs in CF and Heisey in LF to go with Bruce in RF. Then the only question mark is who will play 2B........maybe trade for Brian Roberts of Baltimore?

lidspinner
06-01-2009, 09:01 AM
Well, Burton definitely needs to be sent down and I'd acknowledge signing Lincoln was a mistake, release him, and eat his contract.........then bring up two new relievers and give them a try.

Of our 13 losses this month, 9 have been by 2 or less runs. Amazing what could have been.

Another problem is........our double AA team is loaded with our best prospects and our triple AAA team is depleted and left with junk - Dorn, McDonald, Hopper (excluding Stubbs of course). The double AA Mudcats are on fire. Frazier is batting like .328, Heisey .378, Sean Henry is hovering around .300, and Zack Cozart is starting to hit (up to around .275).......and the pitching is better at double AA too. Travis Wood might be the best pitcher in the organization, but they're content leaving him at Double A. In fact, they have 4 starters in double A with e.r.a.'s under 2.78. Curtis Partch just got moved up and gave up 1 run in 5 innings the other day.......so he might get included in that group eventually. Meanwhile, Danny Dorn can't hit anymore and management seems content to stockpile former borderline major leaguers like Hopper and McDonald at triple A. I don't get it.


I have been saying this for the last few months to my friends...the FO has got to stand strong and let these AA kids move up, we have to see what they have in AAA. Who knows, we might have a few late bloomers in there that are just starting to see the light go on and could be potential all stars. But we will never know if they dont get up to AAA....the thing we do know is the guys in AAA will never be all stars so why not push those guys down? I wish I had more data on what oter teams have done in these situations, I just think its as clear as can be, this is a no brainer on what to do. If the FO is so worried about payroll then seeing what we have in AA might be our biggest way to avoid paying for a big LF bat.
This is the 1st time in years that I get excited about reading about our minor leagueres, I see a very bright future. I also see a road block at AAA. What to do, what to do?

BLEEDS
06-01-2009, 09:13 AM
With Joey Votto out for an extended amount of time, does this team have what it takes to contend? I'm beginning to believe this is nothing more than a .500 club at best with Joey gone, and mainly due to the starting pitching.


I got news for ya, this team was a .500 club at best with Joey IN the lineup.

Without him, we are probably the worst team in the NL not named the Nationals.

PEACE

-BLEEDS

DaytonFlyer
06-01-2009, 09:40 AM
Without Votto, we have no chance to contend. Simple as that.

Dude Rock
06-01-2009, 12:55 PM
I got news for ya, this team was a .500 club at best with Joey IN the lineup.

Without him, we are probably the worst team in the NL not named the Nationals.

PEACE

-BLEEDS

I disagree with near worst. But I see the Dodgers, Phillies, Mets, Cards, and Brewers definitely ahead of us. So if we're not going to contend, it's a moot point anyway.........and the next step is to tweek the roster to either contend this year or in the future. Either see what we got in the farm system that can help or make a trade to better the team.

Griffey012
06-01-2009, 01:13 PM
I got news for ya, this team was a .500 club at best with Joey IN the lineup.

Without him, we are probably the worst team in the NL not named the Nationals.

PEACE

-BLEEDS

Because that instantly makes our pitching staff atrocious to go along with the shaky lineup? Without Joey we are a below average to average team, not a bad team.

Dude Rock
06-01-2009, 01:17 PM
Because that instantly makes our pitching staff atrocious to go along with the shaky lineup? Without Joey we are a below average to average team, not a bad team.

Yeah......our pitching is going to win some games for us. Our hitting will be streaky.

bgwilly31
06-02-2009, 12:53 PM
I dont think we are sellers yet. Considering were still 4 games above .500/

RedLakerFan24
06-02-2009, 03:31 PM
Chirs Heisey, Matt Moloney and Juan Francisco for Matt Holliday, then trade Homer Bailey + Encarnacion for Fausto Carmona ( I read an article and said the Indians had given up on this kid, i just think he needs a change like Edison Volquez) , then DFA Mike Lincoln, then Move Micah Owings to the Bullpen


1. Willie Taveras CF
2. Jerry Harriston Jr. 3B
3. Joey Votto 1B
4. Matt Holliday LF
5. Brandon Phillips 2B
6. Jay Bruce RF
7. Ramon Hernandez C
8. Alex Gonzalez SS


1. Aaron Harang
2. Edison Volquez
3. Johny Cueto
4. Fausto Carmona
5. Bronson Arroyo

Hondo
06-02-2009, 03:58 PM
Chirs Heisey, Matt Moloney and Juan Francisco for Matt Holliday, then trade Homer Bailey + Encarnacion for Fausto Carmona ( I read an article and said the Indians had given up on this kid, i just think he needs a change like Edison Volquez) , then DFA Mike Lincoln, then Move Micah Owings to the Bullpen


1. Willie Taveras CF
2. Jerry Harriston Jr. 3B
3. Joey Votto 1B
4. Matt Holliday LF
5. Brandon Phillips 2B
6. Jay Bruce RF
7. Ramon Hernandez C
8. Alex Gonzalez SS


1. Aaron Harang
2. Edison Volquez
3. Johny Cueto
4. Fausto Carmona
5. Bronson Arroyo

No Thanks to Holliday.

Griffey012
06-03-2009, 01:55 AM
Chirs Heisey, Matt Moloney and Juan Francisco for Matt Holliday, then trade Homer Bailey + Encarnacion for Fausto Carmona ( I read an article and said the Indians had given up on this kid, i just think he needs a change like Edison Volquez) , then DFA Mike Lincoln, then Move Micah Owings to the Bullpen


1. Willie Taveras CF
2. Jerry Harriston Jr. 3B
3. Joey Votto 1B
4. Matt Holliday LF
5. Brandon Phillips 2B
6. Jay Bruce RF
7. Ramon Hernandez C
8. Alex Gonzalez SS


1. Aaron Harang
2. Edison Volquez
3. Johny Cueto
4. Fausto Carmona
5. Bronson Arroyo

If they have given up on him then we should trade them the 2nd coming of Jeff Stevens.

nemesis
06-03-2009, 02:25 AM
Chirs Heisey, Matt Moloney and Juan Francisco for Matt Holliday, then trade Homer Bailey + Encarnacion for Fausto Carmona ( I read an article and said the Indians had given up on this kid, i just think he needs a change like Edison Volquez) , then DFA Mike Lincoln, then Move Micah Owings to the Bullpen


1. Willie Taveras CF
2. Jerry Harriston Jr. 3B
3. Joey Votto 1B
4. Matt Holliday LF
5. Brandon Phillips 2B
6. Jay Bruce RF
7. Ramon Hernandez C
8. Alex Gonzalez SS


1. Aaron Harang
2. Edison Volquez
3. Johny Cueto
4. Fausto Carmona
5. Bronson Arroyo


So you want to give up on one of our young pitchers and a .800 OPSing 3B for another young pitcher who someone else is giving up on and walks the earth?

I say Roenicke, Stubbs, Dorn and Viola for Holiday and a B pitching prospect. If Holiday walks (and he will) away from the team we get 2 High Picks in compensation so in reality you only go minus one player in the deal. Since Viola wasnt a drafted player its a wash really.

BlastFurnace
06-03-2009, 10:36 AM
I got news for ya, this team was a .500 club at best with Joey IN the lineup.

Without him, we are probably the worst team in the NL not named the Nationals.

PEACE

-BLEEDS

I agree with you Bleeds. Before the season began, I figured this bunch would be lucky to get to .500. That, in my mind...for this orgainization...would be a successful season.