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TRF
07-13-2009, 02:20 PM
If you were the Reds manager, knowing who you have on your roster now, knowing your club's offense, who would you ask to have sent up?

Nix/Gomes in LF, Dickerson in CF, Heisey in RF.

The Reds need offense, and Stubbs won't provide it.

Doc. Scott
07-13-2009, 02:33 PM
I remember Heisey was always compared to Chris Denorfia (http://www.thebaseballcube.com/players/D/Chris-Denorfia.shtml) in his first few years. There's a reason for that- both are pretty average-sized guys, both came from northeastern Division III college programs, and both were lower-round draft picks (Denorfia 19th round, Heisey 17th).

Now Heisey has had a breakout season in 2009 that's very comparable to the one Denorfia had in 2005 (the former has better actual digits, the latter did most of his work at the higher level). Both players were in their age-24 season, although Heisey is about six months younger now than Denorfia was in 2005. Denorfia had a cup of coffee with the Reds that year, then spent the majority of 2006 raking at AAA some more. Injuries caused him to miss all of 2007 and he was traded early in the year to Oakland for a couple of fringe-prospect pitchers (Ben Jukich and Marcus McBeth). While he's logged major-league time in both 2008 and 2009, his numbers are down at all levels and he's clearly considered by the A's to be a Quad-A-type player.

I hope the Heisey saga turns out better than the Denorfia one did. Heisey has the advantage of a less-crowded Reds outfield picture, although I don't remember Denorfia competing directly for time with other prospects at his age and level the way Heisey must be compared to Drew Stubbs (a player with lesser results in the minors but considerably better scouting evaluations and the cachet of a first-round draft pick).

I have to admit that Heisey's selection to the Futures Game surprised me- that game's rosters are largely chosen by Baseball America and they tend to strongly favor high draft picks and big-ticket international signings (i.e. people rated really highly on their Top 100 list). I don't remember Denorfia ever getting serious consideration for that game in 2005.

Could that selection be something of a clue that we're dealing with a player who has a better perception (and thus a higher value in trade and a greater likelihood of getting an extended look in the bigs) across baseball? I wonder.

bucksfan2
07-13-2009, 02:33 PM
Nix/Gomes in LF, Dickerson in CF, Heisey in RF.

The Reds need offense, and Stubbs won't provide it.

The guy has a career .368 MiLB OBP. I would say that would provide some pretty good offense out of the lead off spot. Combine that with a guy who this season has about an 85% successful SB rate. The guy gets on base and is a threat to steal. TRF I know you don't like Stubbs but the guy gets on base. That is something this team sorely needs, someone who can get on base.

I have a feeling that when Stubbs gets his chance with the Reds he will be a better hitter than his minor league line. With better and more consistent pitching, I have a feeling Stubbs will do just fine at the plate.

Heisey may be a better hitter than Stubbs but I am fine with leaving him in AAA ball until Sept. No need to rush him. I would be ok with either player getting the call, if it were me I would call up Stubbs.

GOYA
07-13-2009, 02:33 PM
I made this June 23rd, so its not completely up to date... but here is Heisey's career by game in graph format

Really, the only thing that has gone up much is his power which spiked upon his AA tear this year.

Graph his BA.

He was a .290-.300 hitter but since he moved to AA in 2008, he's hit .343 over 402 ABs.

fearofpopvol1
07-13-2009, 02:44 PM
I made this June 23rd, so its not completely up to date... but here is Heisey's career by game in graph format
http://redsminorleagues.com/wp-content/uploads/2009/06/heiseycareerchart.gif

Really, the only thing that has gone up much is his power which spiked upon his AA tear this year.

but in all fairness...stubbs has NEVER seen a power surge like the one Heisey has had. if anything, stubbs' power has taken a decrease, which i think is why a lot of folks are skeptical.

Benihana
07-13-2009, 02:47 PM
Bad comparison. Stillwell 'hit' in rookie ball and sucked in the minors everywhere else. Stubbs has hit at an acceptable rate everywhere he has been and even good in some places. Heisey never hit like Larkin did at an age that Larkin did it. Larkin beat up AA at age 22. Heisey did it at age 24.

Sorry, I meant it for someone that was actually old enough to remember those players playing around the same time.

Stillwell's career minor league OPS = .733
Stubbs career minor league OPS = .776

Is that the difference between "sucking" and being "acceptable and even good"- especially when you consider Stillwell was four years younger than Stubbs at every level, and was in the majors at the same age that Stubbs was getting drafted?


Somehow I can't see 27 points in OPS being the difference between 'hitting' and NOT hitting.

Oh, I guess you answered me already. Thanks.

TRF
07-13-2009, 02:50 PM
Career numbers

Drew Stubbs


Year Team AB H 2B 3B HR W IW HP K AVG OBP SLG OPS BABIP GB% LD% FB% IF/F
2006 Billings 207 53 7 3 6 31 0 7 63 0.256 0.370 0.406 0.776 0.341 55.1% 15.6% 28.6% 10.8%
2007 Dayton 512 137 29 5 12 68 1 6 147 0.268 0.359 0.414 0.773 0.354 45.4% 12.0% 42.4% 14.0%
2008 Sarasota 303 79 21 4 5 50 1 2 82 0.261 0.366 0.406 0.772 0.343 41.1% 25.4% 33.5% 9.8%
2008 Chattanooga 92 29 8 0 0 11 0 2 21 0.315 0.400 0.402 0.802 0.408 45.8% 23.6% 30.6% 12.8%
2008 Louisville 75 22 4 2 2 6 0 1 20 0.293 0.354 0.480 0.834 0.377 43.9% 19.3% 36.8% 9.4%
2008 Total 470 130 33 6 7 67 1 5 123 0.277 0.371 0.417 0.788 0.362 42.5% 24.1% 33.4% 10.3%
2009 Louisville 288 79 20 0 2 40 0 4 73 0.274 0.368 0.365 0.733 0.362 47.5% 19.2% 33.3% 11.3%


Chris Heisey


Year Team AB H 2B 3B HR W IW HP K AVG OBP SLG OPS BABIP GB% LD% FB% IF/F
2006 Billings 244 72 10 0 6 28 0 2 33 0.295 0.371 0.410 0.781 0.322 50.7% 16.0% 32.0% 20.0%
2007 Dayton 375 106 24 2 9 25 0 10 57 0.283 0.344 0.429 0.773 0.314 42.7% 9.6% 47.4% 29.9%
2007 Sarasota 43 15 1 0 1 4 0 0 6 0.349 0.396 0.442 0.838 0.389 41.0% 12.8% 46.2% 26.1%
2007 Total 418 121 25 2 10 29 0 10 63 0.289 0.349 0.431 0.780 0.322 42.5% 9.9% 47.2% 29.5%
2008 Sarasota 437 126 31 7 7 57 2 11 69 0.288 0.382 0.439 0.821 0.330 39.9% 20.1% 39.7% 22.1%
2008 Chattanooga 79 25 6 1 2 3 0 0 15 0.316 0.341 0.494 0.835 0.371 32.8% 14.1% 53.1% 9.3%
2008 Total 516 151 37 8 9 60 2 11 84 0.293 0.376 0.448 0.824 0.336 38.9% 19.2% 41.6% 20.1%
2009 Carolina 273 96 18 2 13 34 1 5 34 0.352 0.430 0.575 1.005 0.367 31.1% 19.5% 48.5% 23.8%
2009 Louisville 53 20 6 0 3 3 0 0 8 0.377 0.397 0.660 1.057 0.405 34.0% 17.0% 46.8% 13.3%
2009 Total 326 116 24 2 16 37 1 5 42 0.356 0.425 0.589 1.014 0.373 31.6% 19.1% 48.3% 22.2%


It looks to me that Heisey has added power, his BB rate seems to be climbing and his K Rate is starting to level out, though it may go up a bit since he changed leagues.

TRF
07-13-2009, 02:53 PM
The guy has a career .368 MiLB OBP. I would say that would provide some pretty good offense out of the lead off spot. Combine that with a guy who this season has about an 85% successful SB rate. The guy gets on base and is a threat to steal. TRF I know you don't like Stubbs but the guy gets on base. That is something this team sorely needs, someone who can get on base.

I have a feeling that when Stubbs gets his chance with the Reds he will be a better hitter than his minor league line. With better and more consistent pitching, I have a feeling Stubbs will do just fine at the plate.

Heisey may be a better hitter than Stubbs but I am fine with leaving him in AAA ball until Sept. No need to rush him. I would be ok with either player getting the call, if it were me I would call up Stubbs.

Willy Taveras career minor league numbers.

.288 .370 .361 .731

Just Sayin'

Benihana
07-13-2009, 02:57 PM
Willy Taveras career minor league numbers.

.288 .370 .361 .731

Just Sayin'


Stubbs is Taveras with a better glove and better plate discipline.

bucksfan2
07-13-2009, 03:10 PM
Willy Taveras career minor league numbers.

.288 .370 .361 .731

Just Sayin'

So Stubbs can't keep up his OBP because Taveras didn't? Doesn't seem logical to me, but oh well.

Its kind of funny the disdain a lot of Reds fans had for Stubbs. I went back and read some of the 2006 Draft threads and Stubbs was supposed to fail. He was a toolsy pick when there were other needs out there. The fact of the matter is that Stubbs has move through every level of the minors and actually has a pretty good line. His detractors have said "small sample size" or "he struggles to make adjustments". But he continues to move through the minors.

Stubbs now has positioned himself to be the CF of the future. From the looks of his minor league lines he has improved himself at the plate. He may lack power, but his .370 OBP sure would look nice at the top of the Reds lineup today. The guy has made all star games everywhere he has been. Maybe others in the game see something that his line doesn't tell us.

TRF
07-13-2009, 03:14 PM
So Stubbs can't keep up his OBP Taveras didn't? Doesn't seem logical to me, but oh well.

Its kind of funny the disdain a lot of Reds fans had for Stubbs. I went back and read some of the 2006 Draft threads and Stubbs was supposed to fail. He was a toolsy pick when there were other needs out there. The fact of the matter is that Stubbs has move through every level of the minors and actually has a pretty good line. His detractors have said "small sample size" or "he struggles to make adjustments". But he continues to move through the minors.

Stubbs now has positioned himself to be the CF of the future. From the looks of his minor league lines he has improved himself at the plate. He may lack power, but his .370 OBP sure would look nice at the top of the Reds lineup today. The guy has made all star games everywhere he has been. Maybe others in the game see something that his line doesn't tell us.

Adam Dunn moved through the minors, obliterating every level.

Drew Stubbs has been moved through the minors.

There is a difference in moving and being moved. Simply put, at no point in their respective careers has Stubbs ever been a better hitter at any level than Heisey. Defensively? Sure, but his defense cannot make up the HUGE gap in their bats.

GOYA
07-13-2009, 03:18 PM
I'm not bashing Stubbs. I like Stubbs. But this is a question of choosing Heisey or Stubbs. Put into the context of what the Reds need, Stubbs loses. Not that he sucks but Heisey is better.

Benihana
07-13-2009, 03:20 PM
So Stubbs can't keep up his OBP Taveras didn't? Doesn't seem logical to me, but oh well.


The idea behind it (which has been repeated many times here) is that once big league pitchers realize you are not a threat to go yard, they'll attack you in the zone. If your biggest offensive asset is your eye and you don't have the power to complement it, you can be in for a rude awakening when you hit the bigs.

Other patient hitters like Adam Dunn, Barry Bonds, and Kevin Youkilis have the power to punish a pitcher if they attack them in the zone. Willy Taveras and Drew Stubbs (so far) do not. Stubbs without the walks = Willy Taveras with a better glove.

bucksfan2
07-13-2009, 03:39 PM
The idea behind it (which has been repeated many times here) is that once big league pitchers realize you are not a threat to go yard, they'll attack you in the zone. If your biggest offensive asset is your eye and you don't have the power to complement it, you can be in for a rude awakening when you hit the bigs.

Other patient hitters like Adam Dunn, Barry Bonds, and Kevin Youkilis have the power to punish a pitcher if they attack them in the zone. Willy Taveras and Drew Stubbs (so far) do not. Stubbs without the walks = Willy Taveras with a better glove.

You groove a pitch to any major league hitter and they will punish it. Stubbs may not hit as many HR's as a guy like Dunn or Bonds but those two are elite HR hitter, pretty poor comparison to Stubbs if you ask me. If you show the ability to spray line drives all over the place pitchers won't attack the zone as much.

Stubbs with the walks = successful lead off hitter.

Benihana
07-13-2009, 03:44 PM
You groove a pitch to any major league hitter and they will punish it. Stubbs may not hit as many HR's as a guy like Dunn or Bonds but those two are elite HR hitter, pretty poor comparison to Stubbs if you ask me. If you show the ability to spray line drives all over the place pitchers won't attack the zone as much.

Stubbs with the walks = successful lead off hitter.

It's not a question of "grooving" pitches, but more of working inside the zone. Nobody was comparing Drew Stubbs to Dunn or Bonds. I'm merely pointing out that unless you have the ability to punish an opposing pitcher for their mistakes in the zone like a Kevin Youkilis or a JD Drew (if you didn't like the earlier examples) then a major league pitcher is not going to tiptoe around the plate. They are going to go after you.

It's exactly why Taveras could not maintain his OBP in the majors, and makes for an interesting comparison to Stubbs.

TRF
07-13-2009, 03:45 PM
You groove a pitch to any major league hitter and they will punish it. Stubbs may not hit as many HR's as a guy like Dunn or Bonds but those two are elite HR hitter, pretty poor comparison to Stubbs if you ask me. If you show the ability to spray line drives all over the place pitchers won't attack the zone as much.

Stubbs with the walks = successful lead off hitter.

Wake me the next/first time Willy Taveras punishes a pitch.

There is a reason Taveras' new nickname is 3-1. Is Stubbs a different hitter? I don't know, but he sure seems similar going by the numbers.

Benihana
07-13-2009, 03:54 PM
The guy has made all star games everywhere he has been. Maybe others in the game see something that his line doesn't tell us.

I missed this gem.

Willy Taveras was elected NL Rookie of the Year by his fellow players, not to mention acquired by a "smart" organization in exchange for another ROY pitcher and then offered $6MM by Walt Jocketty. Maybe others in the game see something that his line doesn't tell us?

TRF
07-13-2009, 03:58 PM
I missed this gem.

Willy Taveras was elected NL Rookie of the Year by his fellow players, not to mention acquired by a "smart" organization in exchange for another ROY pitcher and then offered $6MM by Walt Jocketty. Maybe others in the game see something that his line doesn't tell us?


I give you imaginary rep.

dougdirt
07-13-2009, 04:15 PM
Graph his BA.

He was a .290-.300 hitter but since he moved to AA in 2008, he's hit .343 over 402 ABs.

Batting average isn't a skillset. Its built upon a players power and contact ability (and luck of course, its why BA isn't always the same from year to year for players), both of which are in the graph. Heisey is a higher average player now because he has increaed his contact rate and his power, not because he figured out how to beat BABIP.

dougdirt
07-13-2009, 04:17 PM
It looks to me that Heisey has added power, his BB rate seems to be climbing and his K Rate is starting to level out, though it may go up a bit since he changed leagues.

He has added power, this year, but for the most part until this season, his walk rate, K rate and IsoP have been on a straight path since being drafted. This year is the difference.

bubbachunk
07-13-2009, 04:25 PM
I'm not bashing Stubbs. I like Stubbs. But this is a question of choosing Heisey or Stubbs. Put into the context of what the Reds need, Stubbs loses. Not that he sucks but Heisey is better.

I can think of a handful of plays in the past two weeks where Willy T has botched a fly ball in center that Stubbs would have caught. Those missed balls almost always lead to runs or a big inning making it near impossible to come back. I believe you are undervaluing the improvement his defense would make.

TRF
07-13-2009, 04:25 PM
He has added power, this year, but for the most part until this season, his walk rate, K rate and IsoP have been on a straight path since being drafted. This year is the difference.

2007 29 BB's in 418 AB's (I don't have the PA numbers)
2008 60 BB's in 516 AB's
2009 37 BB's in 326 AB's

It sure seems like he's walking more.

TRF
07-13-2009, 04:27 PM
I can think of a handful of plays in the past two weeks where Willy T has botched a fly ball in center that Stubbs would have caught. Those missed balls almost always lead to runs or a big inning making it near impossible to come back. I believe you are undervaluing the improvement his defense would make.

Dickerson is easily the best CF the Reds have, and from all accounts as good as Stubbs at the position.

bubbachunk
07-13-2009, 04:29 PM
Dickerson is easily the best CF the Reds have, and from all accounts as good as Stubbs at the position.

Not disagreeing with you, my point it that we are discussing if you plugged either Stubbs or Heisey into CF instead of the dreck we have been seeing who would benefit the team more. Defense would play a large factor in my eyes based on the number of misplayed balls by the most common starter there.

dougdirt
07-13-2009, 04:32 PM
2007 29 BB's in 418 AB's (I don't have the PA numbers)
2008 60 BB's in 516 AB's
2009 37 BB's in 326 AB's

It sure seems like he's walking more.

Looks can be deceiving. His walk rate per level.



Rookie 9.8%
A 6.0%
A+ 10.8%
AA 9.3%

Its been a roller coaster in the walk rate, but he is in the 9-10% range and has been since Billings.

dougdirt
07-13-2009, 04:33 PM
Dickerson is easily the best CF the Reds have, and from all accounts as good as Stubbs at the position.

Where do all of these accounts come from that Dickerson is as good in CF as Stubbs?

TRF
07-13-2009, 04:34 PM
Not disagreeing with you, my point it that we are discussing if you plugged either Stubbs or Heisey into CF instead of the dreck we have been seeing who would benefit the team more. Defense would play a large factor in my eyes based on the number of misplayed balls by the most common starter there.

Well I disagree with the premise. Except for the dreck part. Slide CD over to center and call up Heisey.

The defense doesn't take much of a hit in RF, and the offense instantly improves.

kpresidente
07-13-2009, 04:34 PM
seriously, he's Nyjer Morgan.

Stubbs is 6-4/205. Morgan's 160 soaking wet. You have to think at some point Stubbs is going to hit the ball harder than Morgan. Even if he doesn't, Morgan-esque means you get 80 runs with his bat and 30 more with his glove. I'll take that.

TRF
07-13-2009, 04:35 PM
Stubbs is 6-4/205. Morgan's 160 soaking wet. You have to think at some point Stubbs is going to hit the ball harder than Morgan. Even if he doesn't, Morgan-esque means you get 80 runs with his bat and 30 more with his glove. I'll take that.

30 runs with his glove? really?

not buying that.

kpresidente
07-13-2009, 04:37 PM
30 runs with his glove? really?

not buying that.

That's what his UZR/150 says.

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/uzr-on-fangraphs

bubbachunk
07-13-2009, 04:37 PM
Well I disagree with the premise. Except for the dreck part. Slide CD over to center and call up Heisey.

The defense doesn't take much of a hit in RF, and the offense instantly improves.

Other than the fact Heisey has to play something different from his natural position. (While he may have played some games there the ball comes off the bat differently and he would have to get used to reading it as such.) Also Jay Bruce has an absolute cannon that he cannot compare to, so overall the defense between the former and what you are suggesting may be a wash.

GOYA
07-13-2009, 04:51 PM
Other than the fact Heisey has to play something different from his natural position. (While he may have played some games there the ball comes off the bat differently and he would have to get used to reading it as such.)

According to Heisey, he has played about the same amount in every outfield postion but probably a little bit less in center. This is throughout the minors. Heisey said this in an interview with Kelch a few days ago.

BRM
07-13-2009, 05:01 PM
According to Heisey, he has played about the same amount in every outfield postion but probably a little bit less in center. This is throughout the minors. Heisey said this in an interview with Kelch a few days ago.

Unless my math is off, here is what I have for his total games played at each position:

LF - 129
CF - 161
RF - 111

Here is what Baseball Reference shows though:

LF - 110
CF - 140
RF - 78
OF - 179

TRF
07-13-2009, 05:03 PM
I like the "Challenge thy hitters" mantra princeton is fond of putting out there. I agree with it in regards to hitters that actually hit. I'd call Heisey up on Thursday and start him in RF, with Dickerson in CF.

BRM
07-13-2009, 05:05 PM
I like the "Challenge thy hitters" mantra princeton is fond of putting out there. I agree with it in regards to hitters that actually hit. I'd call Heisey up on Thursday and start him in RF, with Dickerson in CF.

Your not Dusty. Dickerson in RF, Taveras in CF and Gomes/Nix in LF will be your OF unless a trade happens. I don't want to see Heisey called up unless Dusty is committed to starting him every single day. I just don't see that happening right now.

TRF
07-13-2009, 05:15 PM
I think it should be a discussion Walt and Dusty have. It could go something like this:

Walt: Hey Dusty, I've called up Chris Heisey

Dusty: the kid in AA?

Walt: AAA. He's tearing the cover off the ball. I'd like him in RF everyday for the next two weeks. I want to see what we have.

Dusty: OK, but that's going to really cut into Dickerson's playing time. Kid was just finding his groove too.

Walt: No, I want him in CF.

Dusty: Huh?

Walt: CF.

Dusty: But I got a CF. Taveras has the wheels we need at the top of the order.

Walt: He's the 5th OF now. Dickerson is #1 on our depth chart.

Dusty: "Our"?

Walt: Yes. Myself, all your coaches, most every NL coach not affiliated with the Reds, and the tiny country of Belgium.

Dusty: So, platoon them?

Walt: I think you are missing my point. We made a mistake. I'm only keeping him as a favor to you, but I'd rather you play your grandson than Taveras.

Dusty: I see.

Dusty: ....

Dusty: So, every 4th day I start Taveras?

Walt: We'll talk daily.

GOYA
07-13-2009, 05:23 PM
Unless my math is off, here is what I have for his total games played at each position:

LF - 129
CF - 161
RF - 111

Here is what Baseball Reference shows though:

LF - 110
CF - 140
RF - 78
OF - 179

OK, Heisey has memory problems.

TRF
07-13-2009, 05:26 PM
179 games at the mysterious OF position.

membengal
07-13-2009, 05:27 PM
"and the tiny country of belgium"

Hee.

membengal
07-13-2009, 05:27 PM
179 games at the mysterious OF position.

Short center. Softball style.

bubbachunk
07-13-2009, 05:37 PM
TRF I think we both understand that your hypothetical convo is no more than a pipe dream but if that were the case I would take that just neither should be called up unless they are getting to play full time.

TRF
07-13-2009, 05:39 PM
TRF I think we both understand that your hypothetical convo is no more than a pipe dream but if that were the case I would take that just neither should be called up unless they are getting to play full time.

agreed. I want no more of Rosales starting at any position. I certainly don't want to see Heisey or Stubbs riding the pine while WT makes out after out at the top of the lineup.

BRM
07-13-2009, 06:10 PM
I think it should be a discussion Walt and Dusty have. It could go something like this:

Walt: Hey Dusty, I've called up Chris Heisey

Dusty: the kid in AA?

Walt: AAA. He's tearing the cover off the ball. I'd like him in RF everyday for the next two weeks. I want to see what we have.

Dusty: OK, but that's going to really cut into Dickerson's playing time. Kid was just finding his groove too.

Walt: No, I want him in CF.

Dusty: Huh?

Walt: CF.

Dusty: But I got a CF. Taveras has the wheels we need at the top of the order.

Walt: He's the 5th OF now. Dickerson is #1 on our depth chart.

Dusty: "Our"?

Walt: Yes. Myself, all your coaches, most every NL coach not affiliated with the Reds, and the tiny country of Belgium.

Dusty: So, platoon them?

Walt: I think you are missing my point. We made a mistake. I'm only keeping him as a favor to you, but I'd rather you play your grandson than Taveras.

Dusty: I see.

Dusty: ....

Dusty: So, every 4th day I start Taveras?

Walt: We'll talk daily.

Great stuff TRF.

:beerme:

BRM
07-13-2009, 06:11 PM
OK, Heisey has memory problems.

I'd say he's pretty close though. He has played more games in the corners than he has in CF.

mth123
07-13-2009, 09:04 PM
It is still hard to say how he will be perform but without power there is very little upside. However, if he comes to the majors and craters he will have no trade value.

Find some organization enamored with speed and steals and trade him to them ( oops he's already with one )

My thoughts as well.

GOYA
07-13-2009, 09:20 PM
I can think of a handful of plays in the past two weeks where Willy T has botched a fly ball in center that Stubbs would have caught. Those missed balls almost always lead to runs or a big inning making it near impossible to come back. I believe you are undervaluing the improvement his defense would make.

We're not comparing Stubbs and Tavares. Unless you think Heisey would have misplayed those balls too.

LoganBuck
07-14-2009, 12:07 AM
We're not comparing Stubbs and Tavares. Unless you think Heisey would have misplayed those balls too.

I think that this is the real issue that we are all dancing around. It is my belief that Stubbs is the CF prospect that fills the speed and defense mantra that the Reds have been touting. The question with him AND Heisey (talk to me after AAA pitchers have seen him for awhile) is whether they will hit enough to justify their roles at the big league level. Comparing Heisey and Stubbs isn't really the point. I know that is the question this thread is about. I don't think the two are mutually exclusive. One is a top of the order table setter, the other is #2, or #5-7 hitter.

As far as defense goes
Stubbs>Dickerson>Heisey

mth123
07-14-2009, 12:56 AM
As far as defense goes
Stubbs>Dickerson>Heisey

And any of them is more than enough for CF. I think the last 10 years of Griffey and Dunn have resulted in a knee jerk over-reaction on this board. The team needs a capable CF who isn't a negative that puts a cumulative strain on the pitching staff. Once that level of competence is reached, its much more important to get offensive production than incremental defensive ability IMO. I don't want any of these guys in a corner. A team gets an advantage by having guys with strong offense playing up the middle spots. I think Heisey is the only guy of the trio that has a chance to be that. Stubbs and Dickerson can be league average types with good defense and that makes them both assets as long as they don't cost too much, but only Heisey has the potential to give the team an edge on the competition. Heisey has the bat that could make a difference, Dickerson being the only lefty of the three gets a bit of an advantage should they all end-up as platoon players. That leaves Stubbs with defense as his only advantage. IMO upgrading from good to great on defense is less important than adding offense in the OF. I'd be looking to deal Stubbs and moving forward with the bigger bat and the lefty and I'd be looking to deal him before exposing him at the major league level. If better pitching causes Stubbs walks to dry-up and his OBP to tumble, he becomes a less powerful version of Corey Patterson and that won't provide any value.

I'd keep Heisey at AAA and let him make his run for minor league player of the year. I'd keep Stubbs down and hope some power materializes in the second half and let Dickerson and maybe Hairston deal with Centerfield (we know Willy will be in the mix). Meanwhile, I'd explore trade possibilities involving moving Stubbs for something at a position that isn't so deep.

Kc61
07-14-2009, 01:08 AM
Dickerson is easily the best CF the Reds have, and from all accounts as good as Stubbs at the position.

Easily? Really.

WT's range factor is 3.00. This is one of the highest in MLB among outfielders and, among NL starting outfielders, appears to be the league's best.

Dickerson's RF is 2.38 including all outfield positions he has played.

WT has a .985 fielding percentage. Dickerson's is .974.

I know trashing WT is real easy. But he covers a ton of ground in the outfield and, despite some awkward routes, makes plays that other CFs don't get to.

Maybe Dickerson is better. But not easily.

And it remains to be seen if Stubbs can cover CF as well as Taveras or Dickerson. As for Heisey, my guess is this Reds FO will not play him in CF. They want big time coverage out in CF.

Plus Plus
07-14-2009, 01:16 AM
WT has a .985 fielding percentage. Dickerson's is .974.

Dickerson's fielding percentage in CF is 1.000. He had three bad errors early in the season in LF that many posters of the board attributed to him not being used to how the ball comes off of the bat in a corner spot. He is easily a better defender in CF than Taveras.

CTA513
07-14-2009, 01:19 AM
Easily? Really.

WT's range factor is 3.00. This is one of the highest in MLB among outfielders and, among NL starting outfielders, appears to be the league's best.

Dickerson's RF is 2.38 including all outfield positions he has played.

WT has a .985 fielding percentage. Dickerson's is .974.

I know trashing WT is real easy. But he covers a ton of ground in the outfield and, despite some awkward routes, makes plays that other CFs don't get to.

Maybe Dickerson is better. But not easily.

And it remains to be seen if Stubbs can cover CF as well as Taveras or Dickerson. As for Heisey, my guess is this Reds FO will not play him in CF. They want big time coverage out in CF.


In CF his range factor is 3.25 this season with 0 errors.

http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/d/dickech01.shtml

Kc61
07-14-2009, 01:23 AM
Dickerson's fielding percentage in CF is 1.000. He had three bad errors early in the season in LF that many posters of the board attributed to him not being used to how the ball comes off of the bat in a corner spot. He is easily a better defender in CF than Taveras.

Then perhaps you can explain why Taveras' range factor leads starting NL outfielders this year. I don't see Dickerson leading in anything.

And the "board" can attribute anything it wants to anything. But overall, Taveras fielding percentage is higher. And Taveras has played a lot more balls out there this year, yet his FPCT is higher.

The problem with measuring defense is that fans go by how it looks. If a guy looks good out there, they say he is better.

All I know is that Taveras covers a ton of ground. I saw him this weekend cover a huge expanse of Citifield outfield to make a great catch.

I'm not saying Dickerson is a poor outfielder. Not at all. But the analysis showing that he is "easily" a better outfielder is no analysis at all. Just words.

Kc61
07-14-2009, 01:25 AM
In CF his range factor is 3.25 this season with 0 errors.

http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/d/dickech01.shtml

What's the sample size? How many fielding chances? And how many for WT?

Mario-Rijo
07-14-2009, 01:26 AM
Then perhaps you can explain why Taveras' range factor leads starting NL outfielders this year. I don't see Dickerson leading in anything.

And the "board" can attribute anything it wants to anything. But overall, Taveras fielding percentage is higher. And Taveras has played a lot more balls out there this year, yet his FPCT is higher.

The problem with measuring defense is that fans go by how it looks. If a guy looks good out there, they say he is better.

All I know is that Taveras covers a ton of ground. I saw him this weekend cover a huge expanse of Citifield outfield to make a great catch.

I'm not saying Dickerson is a poor outfielder. Not at all. But the analysis showing that he is "easily" a better outfielder is no analysis at all. Just words.

Not at the position they both play.

Kc61
07-14-2009, 01:29 AM
Not at the position they both play.


Again, how many chances for Dickerson in CF this year? How many for WT? Because that impacts the analysis. It's less meaningful to go errorless in a small fraction of the games.

GIDP
07-14-2009, 01:36 AM
Are we really debating that Taveras is better than Dickerson in the outfield?

Mario-Rijo
07-14-2009, 01:36 AM
Again, how many chances for Dickerson in CF this year? How many for WT? Because that impacts the analysis. It's less meaningful to go errorless in a small fraction of the games.

I don't think it matters frankly, sure Taveras has the talent to out produce him but he isn't doing it. Taveras has better range but why is the guy still misreading fly balls off the bat as long as he has been playing the position in the pros? Range is great and I want my CF to have it but reading the ball is also important so whatever range Taveras has over Dickerson, Chris makes up for with better fundamentals.

GIDP
07-14-2009, 01:37 AM
Willy Taveras miss plays balls so badly he never gets a chance to really have an error anyways.

OnBaseMachine
07-14-2009, 02:22 AM
Chris Dickerson is a much, much better defensive center fielder than Taveras. I don't even need to see the stats to determine that, though the stats agree Dickerson is better. Taveras is one of the worst center fielders I have seen in the majors. It's amazing to me that a major leaguer CFer can take such horrible routes. I hate to pile on the guy because he seems like a nice fella but he's just not a very good player.

Kc61
07-14-2009, 08:52 AM
Chris Dickerson is a much, much better defensive center fielder than Taveras. I don't even need to see the stats to determine that, though the stats agree Dickerson is better. Taveras is one of the worst center fielders I have seen in the majors. It's amazing to me that a major leaguer CFer can take such horrible routes. I hate to pile on the guy because he seems like a nice fella but he's just not a very good player.


There is not one stat I've seen to indicate that Taveras is a poor centerfielder. Every stat I've seen shows him to be above average. As long as we're not piling on Willy, I'm sure nobody around here would do that.

bucksfan2
07-14-2009, 09:23 AM
And any of them is more than enough for CF. I think the last 10 years of Griffey and Dunn have resulted in a knee jerk over-reaction on this board. The team needs a capable CF who isn't a negative that puts a cumulative strain on the pitching staff. Once that level of competence is reached, its much more important to get offensive production than incremental defensive ability IMO.

I get what you are saying. The Reds have been stricken by CF's who were either old, played like a bat out of hell, or good defensively but couldn't hit a lick. But I think you underestimate a little bit of how much a great defensive CF can help your team. Andruw Jones in his prime controlled CF. He was able to play a shallow CF and take many hits away from batters that other CF's couldn't get. He was a game changer defensively in CF.

I used to go down to the Reds games when they played the Braves to watch Jones patrol CF. It was amazing to see how shallow he played but also what kind of breaks he got on the ball. He would go get a ball that you thought for sure was a hit. Im not saying that Stubbs has an offensive game similar to Jones, but if his defense is comparable he sure will be fun to watch.

lollipopcurve
07-14-2009, 09:36 AM
There were whispers this spring that Stubbs was a little wall-shy going back on balls hit deep. I see the same tendency in Taveras -- he can get tentative/a little jittery once he reaches the warning track, if he's running at a decent clip. I hope this is not really an issue with Stubbs, because I those are extra base hits back there.

GOYA
07-14-2009, 11:00 AM
Who's whispering?

lollipopcurve
07-14-2009, 11:16 AM
Who's whispering?

I can't remember where I read it, but it was relatively mainstream for fans like us. I say "whisper" because I believe I only saw mention of the notion once. I can't remember if it was in the same piece as the one that talked about the team wanting Stubbs to be more aggressive in general -- hitting, baserunning, fielding. May have been Louisville paper.

GOYA
07-14-2009, 12:40 PM
It doesn't sound like the Courier-Journal in Louisville. I've never seen them do anything that requires any thought regarding the Bats.

I've seen Stubbs make catches on the track and I haven't noticed anything tentative about it. But I can't say I ever saw him go hard into the wall either. There's one thing for sure, Stubbs is a hell of a centerfielder.

fearofpopvol1
07-14-2009, 12:48 PM
Chris Dickerson is a much, much better defensive center fielder than Taveras. I don't even need to see the stats to determine that, though the stats agree Dickerson is better. Taveras is one of the worst center fielders I have seen in the majors. It's amazing to me that a major leaguer CFer can take such horrible routes. I hate to pile on the guy because he seems like a nice fella but he's just not a very good player.

Worse than Griffey in '06?

OnBaseMachine
07-14-2009, 12:54 PM
Worse than Griffey in '06?

Nah, not that bad. I'm referring more to route running. At least Griffey took good routes, he just lacked the speed to cover ground. Taveras has plus speed but his awful routes make him an average at best defensive center fielder.

bucksfan2
07-14-2009, 01:00 PM
Nah, not that bad. I'm referring more to route running. At least Griffey took good routes, he just lacked the speed to cover ground. Taveras has plus speed but his awful routes make him an average at best defensive center fielder.

OBM this is a personal bias based upon nothing but feelings. According to you WT may take poor routes, but according to defensive rankings he is a quality defensive CF. I have a feeling if he were getting on base at a .370 clip then he would be a very good defensive CF in your eyes.

Plus Plus
07-14-2009, 01:06 PM
There is not one stat I've seen to indicate that Taveras is a poor centerfielder. Every stat I've seen shows him to be above average. As long as we're not piling on Willy, I'm sure nobody around here would do that.

I am sure that Usain Bolt would have a great range factor in CF as well.

The knock on Willy is that he takes horrible routes to the ball, and is able to make up for it with his speed. Dickerson is a marginal downgrade in speed in CF and a huge upgrade in instincts and route running. This is something that is reflected more in observation and stats, imho. This is why Taveras is a slightly above average CF and not a great CF.

In Dickerson's limited playing time in CF he has been better across the board. I really don't think that this can be argued. I understand that he has had less chances- he is still better.

fearofpopvol1
07-14-2009, 01:07 PM
Nah, not that bad. I'm referring more to route running. At least Griffey took good routes, he just lacked the speed to cover ground. Taveras has plus speed but his awful routes make him an average at best defensive center fielder.

I agree with you on both counts.

GIDP
07-14-2009, 01:22 PM
I feel as if there is no way for us to prove that Willy T is worse than Dickerson when we are using the argument Dickerson doesn't have the attempts Willy has had. We simply cant prove it I guess with numbers, because they will be dismissed.

Homer Bailey
07-14-2009, 01:28 PM
OBM this is a personal bias based upon nothing but feelings. According to you WT may take poor routes, but according to defensive rankings he is a quality defensive CF. I have a feeling if he were getting on base at a .370 clip then he would be a very good defensive CF in your eyes.

Many defensive metrics don't take into account misplays off the wall, balls that get past him for extra bases, and having a noodle arm. Any one who has watched the Reds can attest that Taveras is not a good defensive centerfielder.

Scrap Irony
07-14-2009, 01:45 PM
Hasn't Taveras been discussed ad nauseum in other threads? Isn't this the minor league forum?

BuckeyeRedleg
07-14-2009, 01:51 PM
It is a discussion on CF and the future of it and unfortunately Willy does pertain to that discussion.

OnBaseMachine
07-14-2009, 02:27 PM
OBM this is a personal bias based upon nothing but feelings. According to you WT may take poor routes, but according to defensive rankings he is a quality defensive CF. I have a feeling if he were getting on base at a .370 clip then he would be a very good defensive CF in your eyes.

Then your feeling would be wrong. Come on now, you watch plenty of Reds games. Sure you've seen the misplays by Taveras. Look no further than the recent roadtrip and you'll see what I mean. He lacks instincts out there. He takes some of the worst routes I have ever seen.

Scrap Irony
07-14-2009, 02:32 PM
It is a discussion on CF and the future of it and unfortunately Willy does pertain to that discussion.

Who is the better prospect, Heisey or Stubbs has nothing to do with Taveras. Nothing. I get so tired of seemingly every discussion on Redszone talking about Taveras. It's the minor league forum. Is Taveras in the minor leagues? (Waiting for smart aleck response about how he should be, et al.) Has he perhaps changed his name from Heisey or Stubbs?

GIDP
07-14-2009, 02:40 PM
Taveras should be in the minors!

TRF
07-14-2009, 02:41 PM
getting back to the OP...

I keep pouring over the numbers. I've never seen either play, except gor a couple of inning of the futures game. The numbers say offensively it isn't close. It isn't that Heisey is a tick better than Stubbs with the bat. He's miles better.

And that makes him the better prospect.

BuckeyeRedleg
07-14-2009, 02:51 PM
Who is the better prospect, Heisey or Stubbs has nothing to do with Taveras. Nothing. I get so tired of seemingly every discussion on Redszone talking about Taveras. It's the minor league forum. Is Taveras in the minor leagues? (Waiting for smart aleck response about how he should be, et al.) Has he perhaps changed his name from Heisey or Stubbs?

I find this level of snark to be totally unnecessary and unwarranted.

WT is the CF and Heisey and Stubbs future in CF is dependent on what happens with WT. If you can't see what one has to do with the other than I don't know what more there is to say.

bucksfan2
07-14-2009, 02:58 PM
getting back to the OP...

I keep pouring over the numbers. I've never seen either play, except gor a couple of inning of the futures game. The numbers say offensively it isn't close. It isn't that Heisey is a tick better than Stubbs with the bat. He's miles better.

And that makes him the better prospect.

Ditto. The numbers do say Heisey is a much better offensive player. But the question is how well those minor league numbers will translate. IMO where an organization earns their keep is determining how well each player projects to the next level.

OBM as for Taveras I have watch my fair share of games. He gets to a lot of balls, more than any CF in recent memory. I can't really speak for the route running or poor jumps because it takes quite a bit of time of just watching WT in the outfield, live, instead of on TV.

I did not get to watch any games this weekend. I think it is unfair to make a judgment upon someone's defensive capabilities when they are playing their first games in a brand new park. Every stadium has its nooks and crannies and it takes playing experience to judge a new park.

IslandRed
07-14-2009, 03:48 PM
Dickerson is easily the best CF the Reds have, and from all accounts as good as Stubbs at the position.

From all accounts? Other than a few assertions I've read on this board, I'm not aware of ANY accounts. Mind you, I think he's perfectly okay in center, but the things people in the business say and have said about Stubbs -- the best defensive outfielder in the minor leagues, one of MLB's best center fielders the day he sets foot on a major-league field, etc. -- I never once heard said or even implied about CD.

I think folks want to minimize defensive differences, saying Stubbs isn't that great or such-and-so is just as good, because it makes it easier to argue for the better bat. But it's still a winnable argument even if it's fully granted that Stubbs is better afield.


WT is the CF and Heisey and Stubbs future in CF is dependent on what happens with WT. If you can't see what one has to do with the other than I don't know what more there is to say.

Then let's note their future in CF is dependent upon a vacancy and move on. It may be relevant to mention the dead horse's existence but that doesn't mean we have to drag it over here. :p:

TRF
07-14-2009, 04:50 PM
From all accounts? Other than a few assertions I've read on this board, I'm not aware of ANY accounts. Mind you, I think he's perfectly okay in center, but the things people in the business say and have said about Stubbs -- the best defensive outfielder in the minor leagues, one of MLB's best center fielders the day he sets foot on a major-league field, etc. -- I never once heard said or even implied about CD.

I think folks want to minimize defensive differences, saying Stubbs isn't that great or such-and-so is just as good, because it makes it easier to argue for the better bat. But it's still a winnable argument even if it's fully granted that Stubbs is better afield.

I heard GREAT things about Rey Olmedo's defense at SS. Great range, soft hands. I've heard Craig Tatum's D was major league ready 2 years ago. Juan Francisco was voted best defensive 3B in the FSL.

Nothing in the world like being the best defensive whatever in the minor leagues. I'd put Dickerson with the best defensive CF's in the majors right now. That isn't being a homer, he really is very good.

dougdirt
07-14-2009, 05:30 PM
I ran some numbers. I use Chris Dickerson in CF from 2008 and 2009 to give him a reasonable amount of innings. I then took the top 50 players by innings played in CF this year in baseball and ran some numbers.

BIZ= Balls in Zone
Plays= Plays made on those balls.
RZR = Revised Zone Rating (Plays/BIZ)
OOZ= Out of Zone Plays made
EIZP = Expected in zone plays made (Took the top 50's total RZR and applied to each players BIZ to get what the average should have gotten to based on the amount of balls that landed in their zone).
EOOZP= Expected out of zone plays (took the total OOZ plays and divided by the total Innings to get the average OOZ play made per inning then multiplied that by the players innings).
Total Val= Total Value (Subtracted EIZP from Plays Made and added that number to the Expected out of zone plays made subtracted from the actual OOZ plays made).

Last First Inn BIZ Plays RZR OOZ EIZP EOOZP Total Val
Gutierrez Fra 721 163 159 .975 66 152.2 53.5 19.3
Bourn Mich 741 135 128 .948 69 126.1 55.0 15.9
Jones Adam L 677 192 179 .932 65 179.3 50.2 14.5
Gomez Car 499 124 121 .976 46 115.8 37.0 14.2
Sweeney Ryan J 428 98 94 .959 43 91.5 31.8 13.7
Wise DeWayne 144 31 31 1.000 18 28.9 10.7 9.4
Schafer Jordan 432 94 88 .936 39 87.8 32.1 7.2
Young Chris B 597 122 118 .967 47 113.9 44.3 6.8
Maybin Cameron K 198 35 33 .943 20 32.7 14.7 5.6
Granderson Curtis 755 144 134 .931 62 134.5 56.0 5.5
Gerut Jody 191 39 37 .949 19 36.4 14.2 5.4
Ankiel Rick 290 69 65 .942 26 64.4 21.5 5.0
Rowand Aaron 667 135 124 .919 56 126.1 49.5 4.4
Dukes Elijah 272 59 53 .898 26 55.1 20.2 3.7
Taveras Willy 604 160 147 .919 50 149.4 44.8 2.8
Dickerson Chris 194 47 47 1.000 14 43.9 14.4 2.7
Crowe Trev 104 32 32 1.000 8 29.9 7.7 2.4
Fowler Dext 629 122 115 .943 48 113.9 46.7 2.4
Hamilton Josh H 301 73 70 .959 22 68.2 22.3 1.5
McCutchen Andrew 316 62 56 .903 26 57.9 23.5 0.6
Spilborghs Ryan A 106 20 16 .800 11 18.7 7.9 0.5
Gwynn Tony K 281 80 75 .938 21 74.7 20.9 0.4
McLouth Nate 380 95 90 .947 27 88.7 28.2 0.1
Crisp Coco 412 96 90 .938 30 89.7 30.6 -0.2
Span Den 277 65 63 .969 18 60.7 20.6 -0.3
Fukudome Kosuke 482 98 95 .969 32 91.5 35.8 -0.3
Davis Rajai 293 81 73 .901 24 75.6 21.7 -0.4
Hairston Sco 290 53 48 .906 22 49.5 21.5 -1.0
Byrd Marlon 459 105 99 .943 32 98.1 34.1 -1.1
McLouth Nate 271 60 54 .900 21 56.0 20.1 -1.1
Upton B.J. 693 184 173 .940 49 171.8 51.4 -1.3
Kemp Matt R 770 173 162 .936 55 161.6 57.1 -1.7
Gardner Brett 470 108 98 .907 36 100.9 34.9 -1.7
Johnson Reed 245 48 46 .958 15 44.8 18.2 -2.0
Maier Mit 286 78 72 .923 19 72.8 21.2 -3.1
Parra Ger 173 36 33 .917 10 33.6 12.8 -3.5
Harris Willie 266 78 73 .936 16 72.8 19.7 -3.6
Rasmus Colby 501 125 122 .976 28 116.7 37.2 -3.9
Matthews Jr. Gary 146 42 38 .905 7 39.2 10.8 -5.1
Sizemore Grady 456 113 104 .920 30 105.5 33.8 -5.4
Ross Cody 487 117 108 .923 32 109.3 36.1 -5.4
Hunter Torii 612 178 158 .888 48 166.2 45.4 -5.6
Beltran Carlos 522 135 124 .919 35 126.1 38.7 -5.8
Cameron Mike 703 191 182 .953 42 178.4 52.2 -6.5
Francisco Ben B 225 57 53 .930 9 53.2 16.7 -7.9
Cabrera Melky 317 78 72 .923 15 72.8 23.5 -9.4
Anderson Brian 437 91 85 .934 23 85.0 32.4 -9.4
Ellsbury Jacoby 712 153 136 .889 46 142.9 52.8 -13.7
Victorino Shane 753 151 143 .947 38 141.0 55.9 -15.9
Wells Vernon 775 180 158 .878 39 168.1 57.5 -28.6
Totals 21560 5005 4674 .934 1600


Basically, in terms of turning fly balls into outs, Taveras has been slightly above average this year. Dickerson has saved as many plays in 1/3rd the playing time in CF as Taveras.

dougdirt
07-14-2009, 05:33 PM
I heard GREAT things about Rey Olmedo's defense at SS. Great range, soft hands. I've heard Craig Tatum's D was major league ready 2 years ago. Juan Francisco was voted best defensive 3B in the FSL.

Nothing in the world like being the best defensive whatever in the minor leagues. I'd put Dickerson with the best defensive CF's in the majors right now. That isn't being a homer, he really is very good.

So because you heard something about Olmedo it means the things said about anyone elses defense in the minor leagues is wrong? Who is to say that Tatum's defense isn't major league ready? As for Francisco, he was voted that based on his tools, not his current ability. Scouting reports will back that up. They have him as having an incredible arm and the ability to make a great play from time to time, but also doesn't seem to be focuses on the defensive side of things all that often and may get to big to stick there.

LoganBuck
07-14-2009, 05:46 PM
Chocolate Milk>Gatorade>Water

Especially boiling hot water. Because sometimes water boils, and can burn your tongue, water stinks to drink. Chocolate Milk is the sports drink of the future.

BuckeyeRedleg
07-14-2009, 06:11 PM
Then let's note their future in CF is dependent upon a vacancy and move on. It may be relevant to mention the dead horse's existence but that doesn't mean we have to drag it over here. :p:

To be fair, the original poster's question has generated 23 pages and 330+ posts of everything from Heisey and Stubbs, to Stillwell and Larkin, to speculating on the Reds future OF. As for the latter, Stubbs and Heisey's future is dependent on where the Reds organization values them in relation to current OF's on the 25-man roster and, with that, stats and such will be used to compare and contrast.

It's sad it's come to this, but that certain player (that shall forever remain nameless by me....after this day....in the ML forum) IS the elephant in the room. Just like Griffey roaming around for the last couple years in CF. Just like Eric Milton. Just like Juan Castro. Just like Mike Stanton. It's is highly unrealistic to expect message board posts to not steer sometimes off the original subject and veer off into the land of misfit toys, especially when it directly effects the topic in the first place.

As mentioned, it's not like all 330+ replies in this thread have been "Heisey" or "Stubbs" as the OP asked.

Further, the constant whining regarding what constitutes a valid post and what doesn't has gotten more burdensome than a few posts veering somewhat off-tangent. That's the last I'll say on it and I'll make sure to keep a certain player's name out of the rest of this very enjoyable thread.

Just my two cents.

lollipopcurve
07-14-2009, 06:27 PM
Make it a poll.

I vote Heisey. The numbers favor him, and both guys are nearing the end of their minor league development. I thought Stubbs' bat/power would take a step forward by now. In the meantime, Heisey's power has blossomed. Stubbs' defense and baserunning would have to be far superior to Heisey's in order to overcome the offensive advantage indicated by Heisey's numbers, and I don't think they are.

I think there's a shot Stubbs blossoms in the majors, given the more reliable conditions and the possibility that he's been putting too much pressure on himself to get there. Still, that's entirely speculative, and it's just as possible that he'll find the jump very difficult.

TRF
07-14-2009, 06:35 PM
So because you heard something about Olmedo it means the things said about anyone elses defense in the minor leagues is wrong? Who is to say that Tatum's defense isn't major league ready? As for Francisco, he was voted that based on his tools, not his current ability. Scouting reports will back that up. They have him as having an incredible arm and the ability to make a great play from time to time, but also doesn't seem to be focuses on the defensive side of things all that often and may get to big to stick there.

What I am saying is players get labeled the best or great all the time. Sometimes it translates, sometimes it doesn't. I'm not saying Stubbs is bad. I have no reason to say that, but I haven't seen him in the context of a major league game. I have seen Dickerson, and in CF he makes every play look easy.

BuckeyeRedleg
07-14-2009, 06:38 PM
Make it a poll.

I vote Heisey.

I vote Heisey as well.

RedEye
07-14-2009, 07:47 PM
Maybe we should just settle this with the age-old adage we learned in grade school:

"x is not better than y; it's just different."

pedro
07-14-2009, 08:07 PM
Chocolate Milk>Gatorade>Water

Especially boiling hot water. Because sometimes water boils, and can burn your tongue, water stinks to drink. Chocolate Milk is the sports drink of the future.


You know, I would view this completely opposite.

Water>Gatorade>Chocolate Milk

I mean really, cow juice is better than water? Oh the humanity! ;)

RedsManRick
07-15-2009, 04:10 PM
Scott (DC): Has Chris Heisey surpassed Drew Stubbs in centerfield for the Reds? Or will/should they move Heisey to left?

Kevin Goldstein: They should move Heisey over as Stubbs is the best defensive outfielder in the minors.

BRM
07-15-2009, 04:26 PM
Scott (DC): Has Chris Heisey surpassed Drew Stubbs in centerfield for the Reds? Or will/should they move Heisey to left?

Kevin Goldstein: They should move Heisey over as Stubbs is the best defensive outfielder in the minors.

The obvious question then is how does Heisey's bat project in LF or RF? League average? Worse?

Benihana
07-15-2009, 04:45 PM
The obvious question then is how does Heisey's bat project in LF or RF? League average? Worse?

Personally, I love Heisey as a CF. As a corner OF, I'm still a little skeptical...

BRM
07-15-2009, 04:47 PM
Personally, I love Heisey as a CF. As a corner OF, I'm still a little skeptical...

That's what I was thinking. If he stays in CF, I love his offense. In a corner? Seems like you can get more there.

dougdirt
07-15-2009, 04:50 PM
That's what I was thinking. If he stays in CF, I love his offense. In a corner? Seems like you can get more there.

Why does it matter if you are getting equal production overall because of the defense that Heisey could give you out there compared to a better hitter who plays defense like Adam Dunn?

OnBaseMachine
07-15-2009, 04:53 PM
I'm becoming more and more convinced that Heisey can provide enough offense to handle LF. But I like him more in CF.

From an ESPN chat:

Enrico (Columbus, Ohio)

Reds outfield line-up in 3 years with stubbs, heisey, bruce, and maybe votto ( with alonzo pushing votto to OF). What is Heisey's upside?

Jim Callis (2:14 PM)

I think Heisey can be a solid regular. But I think the Reds' outfield of the future, from left to right, will be Votto, Stubbs, Bruce.

http://espn.go.com/sportsnation/chat/_/id/27426/mlb-with-jim-callis

BRM
07-15-2009, 04:53 PM
Why does it matter if you are getting equal production overall because of the defense that Heisey could give you out there compared to a better hitter who plays defense like Adam Dunn?

So a better hitter in LF is gauranteed to be a butcher? Seems like there would be a middle ground somewhere. Point is, you need some big hitters somewhere on the diamond. Corner OF and 1B are usually the easiest places to find them.

BRM
07-15-2009, 04:55 PM
I'm becoming more and more convinced that Heisey can provide enough offense to handle LF. But I like him more in CF.


He can "handle" LF but he'd be above average to very good in CF offensively? Is that about how it sizes up?

Benihana
07-15-2009, 04:56 PM
Why does it matter if you are getting equal production overall because of the defense that Heisey could give you out there compared to a better hitter who plays defense like Adam Dunn?

There's no in between?

I think Heisey projects to a guy that could put up an .800 OPS in the majors. Maybe .850 in a best-case scenario.

While he would play great defense as a COF, I'd still like to see more offensive production out of the corner OF spots, especially if you are going to have light-hitting defensive whizzes at both CF and SS (as the Reds seemed destined to have, at least as of now). You're going to have to get your offense from somewhere...

BRM
07-15-2009, 04:57 PM
There's no in between?

I think Heisey projects to a guy that could put up an .800 OPS in the majors. Maybe an .850 OPS in a best-case scenario.

While he would play great defense as a COF, I'd still like to see more offensive production out of the corner OF spots, especially if you are going to have light-hitting defensive whizzes at both CF and SS (as the Reds seemed destined to have, at least as of now). You're going to have to get your offense from somewhere...

That was summed up much better than what I did.

dougdirt
07-15-2009, 05:06 PM
So a better hitter in LF is gauranteed to be a butcher? Seems like there would be a middle ground somewhere. Point is, you need some big hitters somewhere on the diamond. Corner OF and 1B are usually the easiest places to find them.

Not completely no, but the amount of good hitters that are also good fielders in left can probably be counted on one hand. And no, you don't need big hitters somewhere on the field. Not if you can put out a lineup with 8 good hitting regulars.

Benihana
07-15-2009, 05:11 PM
Not completely no, but the amount of good hitters that are also good fielders in left can probably be counted on one hand. And no, you don't need big hitters somewhere on the field. Not if you can put out a lineup with 8 good hitting regulars.

Would Drew Stubbs qualify as a "good hitting regular"?
Willy Taveras?
Chris Dickerson?
Paul Janish?
Alex Gonzalez?
Zack Cozart?

These are the top candidates for SS and CF currently in the organization.

dougdirt
07-15-2009, 05:14 PM
Would Drew Stubbs qualify as a "good hitting regular"?
Willy Taveras?
Chris Dickerson?
Paul Janish?
Alex Gonzalez?
Zack Cozart?

These are the top candidates for SS and CF currently in the organization.

Dickerson, Cozart and Stubbs do. They all have shown a good ability to get on base. Cozart is in AA, so its still a little stretch to suggest that I guess, but he has shown nothing in AA to suggest he is going to be on the same level at the plate as a guy like Janish, Taveras or Gonzalez who really struggle to find 1B and have shown the lack of a skillset to generally find first base for a long time.

BRM
07-15-2009, 05:15 PM
Not completely no, but the amount of good hitters that are also good fielders in left can probably be counted on one hand. And no, you don't need big hitters somewhere on the field. Not if you can put out a lineup with 8 good hitting regulars.

I can buy that. The Reds need to get on the ball finding good hitters to play CF and SS then. And possibly a catcher too.

bucksfan2
07-15-2009, 05:15 PM
There's no in between?

I think Heisey projects to a guy that could put up an .800 OPS in the majors. Maybe .850 in a best-case scenario.

While he would play great defense as a COF, I'd still like to see more offensive production out of the corner OF spots, especially if you are going to have light-hitting defensive whizzes at both CF and SS (as the Reds seemed destined to have, at least as of now). You're going to have to get your offense from somewhere...

It got me to thinking if there were any good offensive and defensive LF's? It seems like if a player has the 5 tools to play the outfield the either find themselves in CF or RF. The LF is where teams tend to hide players defensively hoping that their bat carries them.

bubbachunk
07-15-2009, 05:16 PM
I can buy that. The Reds need to get on the ball finding good hitters to play CF and SS then. And possibly a catcher too.

Backup catcher

dougdirt
07-15-2009, 05:17 PM
I can buy that. The Reds need to get on the ball finding good hitters to play CF and SS then. And possibly a catcher too.

They have a guy ready for CF last year who they still aren't playing out there much. Same can be said for catcher. They need a shortstop, but I really think Cozart is that answer albeit it may be another few months before he is ready for that one. The last thing we need though is a 3 year contract for a SS this offseason unless we make a big splash on an impact player and not a middle of the road type of guy like we made 3 years ago.

BRM
07-15-2009, 05:18 PM
Backup catcher

We won't know that for sure until the Reds start running Hanigan out there on a regular basis. Right now he's looked pretty good in limited playing time. I hope he can be the everyday guy but it still remains to be seen.

BRM
07-15-2009, 05:22 PM
They have a guy ready for CF last year who they still aren't playing out there much. Same can be said for catcher. They need a shortstop, but I really think Cozart is that answer albeit it may be another few months before he is ready for that one. The last thing we need though is a 3 year contract for a SS this offseason unless we make a big splash on an impact player and not a middle of the road type of guy like we made 3 years ago.

Agree that Dickerson should be that guy in CF right now. If Cozart can be the regular SS to begin 2010 then I'm with you. Still, you really can't expect him to be a "good hitting regular" right out of the gate. I'm sure it will take some time. Sounds like you are essentially shooting for 2011 or 2012 for the Reds to be truly competitive. I say that because Cozart, Stubbs and Heisey probably won't all go gangbusters as soon as they are annointed starters.

Benihana
07-15-2009, 05:22 PM
Dickerson, Cozart and Stubbs do. They all have shown a good ability to get on base. Cozart is in AA, so its still a little stretch to suggest that I guess, but he has shown nothing in AA to suggest he is going to be on the same level at the plate as a guy like Janish, Taveras or Gonzalez who really struggle to find 1B and have shown the lack of a skillset to generally find first base for a long time.

Stubbs = good hitting regular? No f'n way. He's great defensively. His bat is passable in a best-case scenario. He is far from a "good hitting" regular.

Dickerson = good hitting regular? Perhaps, but only in CF- and that seems irrelevant in a world where both Stubbs and Heisey are already regulars.

Cozart = good hitting regular? I like Cozart more than most, but he falls into the same category as Stubbs: his glove will carry him to the bigs, but I hope that his bat isn't so (Janish-esque) anemic that it prevents him from being a starter. He is 23 and for the first time in his professional career putting up an OPS over .800, and just barely at that. In other words, I'm not sure that he'll ever be a "good hitting" regular.

bucksfan2
07-15-2009, 05:26 PM
Stubbs = good hitting regular? No f'n way. He's great defensively, and his bat is passable in a best-case scenario. He is far from a "good hitting" regular.

Dickerson = good hitting regular? Perhaps, but only in CF- and that seems irrelevant in a world where both Stubbs and Heisey are already regulars.

Cozart = good hitting regular? I like Cozart more than most, but he falls into the same category as Stubbs: his glove will carry him to the bigs, but I hope that his bat isn't so (Janish-esque) anemic that it prevents him from being a starter. In other words, I'm not sure that he'll ever be a "good hitting" regular.

Guy has shown the ability to get on base wherever he has gone. You can't deny that.

Benihana
07-15-2009, 05:36 PM
Guy has shown the ability to get on base wherever he has gone. You can't deny that.

He has a career .270 BA and a .405 SLG% in 1465 minor league ABs. He is currently SLG .365 in AAA a couple months before his 25th birthday.

Please show me a "good hitting" major league regular that has put up minor league numbers like that.

nemesis
07-15-2009, 05:57 PM
Cozart = good hitting regular? I like Cozart more than most, but he falls into the same category as Stubbs: his glove will carry him to the bigs, but I hope that his bat isn't so (Janish-esque) anemic that it prevents him from being a starter. He is 23 and for the first time in his professional career putting up an OPS over .800, and just barely at that. In other words, I'm not sure that he'll ever be a "good hitting" regular.

I'd take a 24 yr old defensive wiz at short with a .725ish OBP as a rookie / .340 OBP with a .385 SLG. I think Cozart is more than capible of peaks around .800 and that is better than anything we've had since Larkin.

Especially since our "starting SS" has a lifetime OPS of .689 and that was worth all these millons. Hell his best full year in the Majors was an OPS of .756 and he followed that up with a .689. He had a .696 the year before WK thought he was worth all this cash.

So yes Id take my chances on a cheap, young, improving Cozart to be league average at SS next year.

BRM
07-15-2009, 06:02 PM
If Stubbs is the Reds choice to play CF in the future, wouldn't that basically boil it down to Alonso or Heisey?

Alonso 1B
Votto LF

or

Votto 1B
Heisey LF

The first duo is likely the better option if the plan is to keep Stubbs. If so, you might as well trade Heisey for something else of need while his value is high.

Benihana
07-15-2009, 06:08 PM
I'd take a 24 yr old defensive wiz at short with a .725ish OBP as a rookie / .340 OBP with a .385 SLG. I think Cozart is more than capible of peaks around .800 and that is better than anything we've had since Larkin.

Especially since our "starting SS" has a lifetime OPS of .689 and that was worth all these millons. Hell his best full year in the Majors was an OPS of .756 and he followed that up with a .689. He had a .696 the year before WK thought he was worth all this cash.

So yes Id take my chances on a cheap, young, improving Cozart to be league average at SS next year.

That's not the point of the argument.

I am pointing out that the Reds will not have 8 good hitting regulars, so the whole argument behind sticking Heisey in LF is moot.

I like Cozart, as I said, more than most. He is the best SS prospect the Reds have had since Larkin. That said, I don't expect him to put up an OPS > .800 in the majors anytime soon.

Gookie Dawkins, probably the next best SS prospect the Reds have had since Larkin, put up an .892 OPS in AA as a 20 year old. We know how his stick turned out.

dougdirt
07-15-2009, 06:10 PM
Stubbs = good hitting regular? No f'n way. He's great defensively. His bat is passable in a best-case scenario. He is far from a "good hitting" regular.
The average CF in baseball is OBPing .338 and slugging .422 this season. If Stubbs can replicate that (I think he will be higher in the OBP than that and around that SLG for the most part) he will be a solid hitting regular. OBP is worth more than slugging.



Cozart = good hitting regular? I like Cozart more than most, but he falls into the same category as Stubbs: his glove will carry him to the bigs, but I hope that his bat isn't so (Janish-esque) anemic that it prevents him from being a starter. He is 23 and for the first time in his professional career putting up an OPS over .800, and just barely at that. In other words, I'm not sure that he'll ever be a "good hitting" regular.

Shortstops in baseball this year are sporting a .324 OBP and a .384 SLG. Thats with a guy like Hanley Ramirez mixed in. Cozart is 23 and in AA with .281/.372/.444 line with strong peripherals. so yeah, I think he is certainly on track to be a good hitting regular.

Benihana
07-15-2009, 06:12 PM
If Stubbs is the Reds choice to play CF in the future, wouldn't that basically boil it down to Alonso or Heisey?

Alonso 1B
Votto LF

or

Votto 1B
Heisey LF

The first duo is likely the better option if the plan is to keep Stubbs. If so, you might as well trade Heisey for something else of need while his value is high.

Exactly. One of Stubbs/Heisey/Alonso must go if the Reds are going to reap any kind of value in a trade. The only argument to keep all three of them for the time being would be if you plan on playing Stubbs at CF and Heisey at LF until Alonso is ready for the bigs. For the reasons that I said, I don't think that combination bodes well for the 2010 Reds. Therefore someone must go, and my vote currently goes to Stubbs.

dougdirt
07-15-2009, 06:13 PM
Gookie Dawkins, probably the next best SS prospect the Reds have had since Larkin, put up an .892 OPS in AA as a 20 year old. We know how his stick turned out.
Dawkins also did that in 129 at bats. He wasn't close to that good anywhere else.

Benihana
07-15-2009, 06:15 PM
The average CF in baseball is OBPing .338 and slugging .422 this season. If Stubbs can replicate that (I think he will be higher in the OBP than that and around that SLG for the most part) he will be a solid hitting regular. OBP is worth more than slugging.


Wow, a minute ago you said he needs to be a "good hitting regular." Now he just needs to be average (or solid). At this rate, he can be poor by dinner.

Benihana
07-15-2009, 06:18 PM
Shortstops in baseball this year are sporting a .324 OBP and a .384 SLG. Thats with a guy like Hanley Ramirez mixed in. Cozart is 23 and in AA with .281/.372/.444 line with strong peripherals. so yeah, I think he is certainly on track to be a good hitting regular.

Career minor league OPS of .764 and he hasn't seen AAA yet. I hope you're right, I'm just not sure if anyone could confidently project him to be a "good hitting regular" at this point- especially not for the next year or three.

BRM
07-15-2009, 06:19 PM
Average offense at SS and CF (Cozart and Stubbs) with below average to average offense in LF (Heisey). Sounds like a pretty weak offensive team in 2010. I think I like Heisey in CF, Cozart at SS with Votto or Big Bat in LF better. And I do expect Cozart to struggle quite a bit if he's installed as the regular in April 2010.

Benihana
07-15-2009, 06:21 PM
Average offense at SS and CF (Cozart and Stubbs) with below average to average offense in LF (Heisey). Sounds like a pretty weak offensive team in 2010. I think I like Heisey in CF, Cozart at SS with Votto or Big Bat in LF better. And I do expect Cozart to struggle quite a bit if he's installed as the regular in April 2010.

x2 :thumbup:

(Don't forget, that "average offense" was in a best-case hoping/wishing kind of scenario.)

TRF
07-15-2009, 06:31 PM
The average CF in baseball is OBPing .338 and slugging .422 this season. If Stubbs can replicate that (I think he will be higher in the OBP than that and around that SLG for the most part) he will be a solid hitting regular. OBP is worth more than slugging.

Even if you are sold that his OBP will be high at the big league level, and I certainly am not, why would you for a second believe he'll SLG .420+ when he's NEVER done that, except for Low A and 75 AB's at AAA last year. He's never OBP'd above .370 at any level except 92 AB's at AA. Like him or not at least be honest in your criticism/praise.

I don't believe he can keep up the OBP without adding power to make him a threat. I hope I'm wrong, but it isn't a common occurrence. The OBP thing, not me being wrong. That happens a lot. That's my critique of Stubbs. The lack of resulting power. He's a big guy that doesn't generate power. Now add in that his biggest weapon is speed and that he's listed at 6' 5". That makes one tend to think how he'll age. He's a skinny guy, listed at 190, but 190 can turn into 240 real quick when you are that tall. I'm not saying it will, but it could. Physically he's a bit of an anomaly. To bring Lincecum back into the discussion, Stubbs is nearly a foot taller but only about 35 pounds heavier.

It's clear the power he had at UT was largely the result of metal bats. It's also possible his swing has been tinkered so much he has no idea how to hit for power anymore. Something changed between Dayton and Louisville, and it shows in his SLG. He's been a bad offensive player since the end of the IL season last year. Terrible in the AFL, and terrible this year outside one really good month.

Bill James once said if a power hitter can't hit for power, who gives a crap?

Stubbs isn't a power hitter, and may not even be a slap/contact hitter. His stock is falling... he really needs a monster second half.

nemesis
07-15-2009, 06:36 PM
If Stubbs is the Reds choice to play CF in the future, wouldn't that basically boil it down to Alonso or Heisey?

Alonso 1B
Votto LF

or

Votto 1B
Heisey LF

The first duo is likely the better option if the plan is to keep Stubbs. If so, you might as well trade Heisey for something else of need while his value is high.

Alonso wont help the team until late next year at the earliest. He also has to learn to hit LHP which he is yet to do. Heisley can help as soon as a September call-up. I saw in comparison in another post someone I think Heisley compares favoribly to. Jason Bay. I'd be sick if we traded away that type of production. I am all for trading Stubbs. We've seen how much having a great glove does to help us win games. I'll take a dozen or so balls that fall in if I get 30 or more hits out of the postion. Especially if 10 more go over the fence.

BRM
07-15-2009, 06:38 PM
Alonso wont help the team until late next year at the earliest. He also has to learn to hit LHP which he is yet to do. Heisley can help as soon as a September call-up. I saw in comparison in another post someone I think Heisley compares favoribly to. Jason Bay. I'd be sick if we traded away that type of production. I am all for trading Stubbs. We've seen how much having a great glove does to help us win games. I'll take a dozen or so balls that fall in if a dozen or more if I get 30 more hits out of the postion. Especially if 10 more go over the fence.

I don't think Alonso or Cozart either one will be ready until late next year. I hope I'm wrong but that timeline seems more reasonable.

I'm with you on Heisey. I hope the Reds keep him and give him a shot to play CF next season.

Benihana
07-15-2009, 06:40 PM
I don't think Alonso or Cozart either one will be ready until late next year. I hope I'm wrong but that timeline seems more reasonable.

I'm with you on Heisey. I hope the Reds keep him and give him a shot to play CF next season.

Agreed.

I doubt we see either before June or July at the earliest.

nemesis
07-15-2009, 06:42 PM
Career minor league OPS of .764 and he hasn't seen AAA yet. I hope you're right, I'm just not sure if anyone could confidently project him to be a "good hitting regular" at this point- especially not for the next year or three.

Not keeping in mind his first year straight out of college he was sent to Dayton out of need. He has also improved is OPS all 3 years in the system from the prior year despite skipping a level. Something that Frazier, Valakia, Stubbs, Bruce, Heisley, Francisco or Soto didn't even do. That to me is the defintion of a prospect. Someone who has a Plus tool and makes himself better each year in areas tat are considerd weaknesses. Thats what Votto did.

dougdirt
07-15-2009, 06:47 PM
Career minor league OPS of .764 and he hasn't seen AAA yet. I hope you're right, I'm just not sure if anyone could confidently project him to be a "good hitting regular" at this point- especially not for the next year or three.

I could care less about what he did in Dayton at this point. Cozart didn't really figure out how to hit with a wood bat until half way through last year (his words, not mine). He has good plate discipline and has some pop in his bat. Given how crappy major league shortstops are hitting these days a .750 OPS would be above average right now.

dougdirt
07-15-2009, 06:52 PM
Even if you are sold that his OBP will be high at the big league level, and I certainly am not, why would you for a second believe he'll SLG .420+ when he's NEVER done that, except for Low A and 75 AB's at AAA last year. He's never OBP'd above .370 at any level except 92 AB's at AA. Like him or not at least be honest in your criticism/praise.
GABP for starters. He hits a lot of doubles, those will turn into some HR's thanks to GABP and well likely just due to some maturity. As for his OBP, I never said he would OBP .370, just better than .338.



Stubbs isn't a power hitter, and may not even be a slap/contact hitter. His stock is falling... he really needs a monster second half.
Stubbs has always been defensive first, hitting second. Nothing has changed that and it wasn't expected to. He hasn't become the hitter he was projected to be when he was drafted, but he surely isn't the craptastic guy a lot of people proclaimed he would be either. He is just a very different type of hitter than either side really thought he would become. He doesn't need a monster second half, he just needs to keep doing what he has been doing and improve his game a little more. Would it surprise you if he went out and had 15 doubles and 6 HR in the second half of the year (not even a half from this point forward)? Well, it might surprise you because you think he is Willy Taveras at the plate.... but I don't think it would surprise most people.

dougdirt
07-15-2009, 06:53 PM
Alonso wont help the team until late next year at the earliest. He also has to learn to hit LHP which he is yet to do. Heisley can help as soon as a September call-up. I saw in comparison in another post someone I think Heisley compares favoribly to. Jason Bay. I'd be sick if we traded away that type of production. I am all for trading Stubbs. We've seen how much having a great glove does to help us win games. I'll take a dozen or so balls that fall in if I get 30 or more hits out of the postion. Especially if 10 more go over the fence.

Chris Heisey isn't Jason Bay. The 'comparison' was simply that like Heisey he was a 'late bloomer'.

TRF
07-15-2009, 06:55 PM
GABP for starters. He hits a lot of doubles, those will turn into some HR's thanks to GABP and well likely just due to some maturity. As for his OBP, I never said he would OBP .370, just better than .338.


I love the doubles turn into HR's argument. His SLG disagrees with you on that. He gets his doubles with his speed, not his power. And GABP suppresses doubles.

dougdirt
07-15-2009, 06:56 PM
I love the doubles turn into HR's argument. His SLG disagrees with you on that. He gets his doubles with his speed, not his power. And GABP suppresses doubles.

And how many Bats games have you watched this year to confirm your 'his doubles are from his speed' argument?

TRF
07-15-2009, 06:58 PM
And how many Bats games have you watched this year to confirm your 'his doubles are from his speed' argument?

None. I see it in his SLG% which is anemic. I feel fairly certain that ouside an outstanding month of May, many of his doubles were of the "down the line" variety.

doug, he's got no power.

BRM
07-15-2009, 07:00 PM
Someone please pass the popcorn. Doug and TRF are arguing about Drew Stubbs again. :)

TRF
07-15-2009, 07:03 PM
Someone please pass the popcorn. Doug and TRF are arguing about Drew Stubbs again. :)

yeah, but I'm winning. :D

BRM
07-15-2009, 07:04 PM
yeah, but I'm winning. :D

That's all that matters, isn't it?

dougdirt
07-15-2009, 07:43 PM
None. I see it in his SLG% which is anemic. I feel fairly certain that ouside an outstanding month of May, many of his doubles were of the "down the line" variety.

doug, he's got no power.

Well thankfully they chart the AA and AAA games. With the help of photoshop I went through and found all of Stubbs doubles and put them up in LSF.

http://www.redsminorleagues.com/images/stubbsdoubles.gif

dougdirt
07-15-2009, 07:43 PM
yeah, but I'm winning. :D

Nah, you just think you are :thumbup:

GOYA
07-15-2009, 08:13 PM
Aren't those dots where the defender fields the ball as opposed to where it landed?

Kingspoint
07-15-2009, 08:32 PM
I ran some numbers. I use Chris Dickerson in CF from 2008 and 2009 to give him a reasonable amount of innings. I then took the top 50 players by innings played in CF this year in baseball and ran some numbers.

BIZ= Balls in Zone
Plays= Plays made on those balls.
RZR = Revised Zone Rating (Plays/BIZ)
OOZ= Out of Zone Plays made
EIZP = Expected in zone plays made (Took the top 50's total RZR and applied to each players BIZ to get what the average should have gotten to based on the amount of balls that landed in their zone).
EOOZP= Expected out of zone plays (took the total OOZ plays and divided by the total Innings to get the average OOZ play made per inning then multiplied that by the players innings).
Total Val= Total Value (Subtracted EIZP from Plays Made and added that number to the Expected out of zone plays made subtracted from the actual OOZ plays made).

Last First Inn BIZ Plays RZR OOZ EIZP EOOZP Total Val
Gutierrez Fra 721 163 159 .975 66 152.2 53.5 19.3
Bourn Mich 741 135 128 .948 69 126.1 55.0 15.9
Jones Adam L 677 192 179 .932 65 179.3 50.2 14.5
Gomez Car 499 124 121 .976 46 115.8 37.0 14.2
Sweeney Ryan J 428 98 94 .959 43 91.5 31.8 13.7
Wise DeWayne 144 31 31 1.000 18 28.9 10.7 9.4
Schafer Jordan 432 94 88 .936 39 87.8 32.1 7.2
Young Chris B 597 122 118 .967 47 113.9 44.3 6.8
Maybin Cameron K 198 35 33 .943 20 32.7 14.7 5.6
Granderson Curtis 755 144 134 .931 62 134.5 56.0 5.5
Gerut Jody 191 39 37 .949 19 36.4 14.2 5.4
Ankiel Rick 290 69 65 .942 26 64.4 21.5 5.0
Rowand Aaron 667 135 124 .919 56 126.1 49.5 4.4
Dukes Elijah 272 59 53 .898 26 55.1 20.2 3.7
Taveras Willy 604 160 147 .919 50 149.4 44.8 2.8
Dickerson Chris 194 47 47 1.000 14 43.9 14.4 2.7
Crowe Trev 104 32 32 1.000 8 29.9 7.7 2.4
Fowler Dext 629 122 115 .943 48 113.9 46.7 2.4
Hamilton Josh H 301 73 70 .959 22 68.2 22.3 1.5
McCutchen Andrew 316 62 56 .903 26 57.9 23.5 0.6
Spilborghs Ryan A 106 20 16 .800 11 18.7 7.9 0.5
Gwynn Tony K 281 80 75 .938 21 74.7 20.9 0.4
McLouth Nate 380 95 90 .947 27 88.7 28.2 0.1
Crisp Coco 412 96 90 .938 30 89.7 30.6 -0.2
Span Den 277 65 63 .969 18 60.7 20.6 -0.3
Fukudome Kosuke 482 98 95 .969 32 91.5 35.8 -0.3
Davis Rajai 293 81 73 .901 24 75.6 21.7 -0.4
Hairston Sco 290 53 48 .906 22 49.5 21.5 -1.0
Byrd Marlon 459 105 99 .943 32 98.1 34.1 -1.1
McLouth Nate 271 60 54 .900 21 56.0 20.1 -1.1
Upton B.J. 693 184 173 .940 49 171.8 51.4 -1.3
Kemp Matt R 770 173 162 .936 55 161.6 57.1 -1.7
Gardner Brett 470 108 98 .907 36 100.9 34.9 -1.7
Johnson Reed 245 48 46 .958 15 44.8 18.2 -2.0
Maier Mit 286 78 72 .923 19 72.8 21.2 -3.1
Parra Ger 173 36 33 .917 10 33.6 12.8 -3.5
Harris Willie 266 78 73 .936 16 72.8 19.7 -3.6
Rasmus Colby 501 125 122 .976 28 116.7 37.2 -3.9
Matthews Jr. Gary 146 42 38 .905 7 39.2 10.8 -5.1
Sizemore Grady 456 113 104 .920 30 105.5 33.8 -5.4
Ross Cody 487 117 108 .923 32 109.3 36.1 -5.4
Hunter Torii 612 178 158 .888 48 166.2 45.4 -5.6
Beltran Carlos 522 135 124 .919 35 126.1 38.7 -5.8
Cameron Mike 703 191 182 .953 42 178.4 52.2 -6.5
Francisco Ben B 225 57 53 .930 9 53.2 16.7 -7.9
Cabrera Melky 317 78 72 .923 15 72.8 23.5 -9.4
Anderson Brian 437 91 85 .934 23 85.0 32.4 -9.4
Ellsbury Jacoby 712 153 136 .889 46 142.9 52.8 -13.7
Victorino Shane 753 151 143 .947 38 141.0 55.9 -15.9
Wells Vernon 775 180 158 .878 39 168.1 57.5 -28.6
Totals 21560 5005 4674 .934 1600


Basically, in terms of turning fly balls into outs, Taveras has been slightly above average this year. Dickerson has saved as many plays in 1/3rd the playing time in CF as Taveras.

...and it still befuddles me why he doesn't start every game in CF for the REDS. I guess Dusty just likes average and stolen bases. He still thinks 1950 bubblegum cards has all the information needed for a player.

dougdirt
07-15-2009, 09:14 PM
Aren't those dots where the defender fields the ball as opposed to where it landed?

That they are.... but its still not filled with 'bloops' that were turned into doubles because of speed like was suggested.

GOYA
07-15-2009, 09:26 PM
That they are.... but its still not filled with 'bloops' that were turned into doubles because of speed like was suggested.

I know of two and maybe three of his doubles that were exactly that. The majority were hit in spots that would have been doubles for most hitters. Regardless, for all intents and purposes, Stubbs displays no power. He lacks bat speed. Accept it.

dougdirt
07-15-2009, 09:33 PM
I know of two and maybe three of his doubles that were exactly that. The majority were hit in spots that would have been doubles for most hitters. Regardless, for all intents and purposes, Stubbs displays no power. He lacks bat speed. Accept it.

Scouting reports disagree with the lack of bat speed you suggest.

GOYA
07-15-2009, 10:08 PM
Stop reading reports and just watch him, Doug. I don't doubt that he can swing harder than what he does in games but that doesn't count for anything where the rubber meets the road.

He tags a ball and drives it to the track. That is because of lack of bat speed. What else could it be? A defective bat?

kpresidente
07-15-2009, 10:21 PM
Who cares if he hits home runs? He's going to bat behind the pitcher and the bottom of the order. I see a .370 OBP (people here said his OBP would fall as he progressed if he didn't develop some power, obviously that hasn't happened) on pace for 60 SBs. That's pretty good, IMO.

camisadelgolf
07-15-2009, 10:58 PM
I've seen Stubbs play, and he does not lack bat speed. If anything, he lacks bat control. That will lead to plenty of strikeouts, but what difference does it make if he's striking out instead of popping out to third base?

Also, Stubbs wasn't drafted only for his bat. He may never be an above-average hitter, but as long as he's an above-average defender with an average bat, he will be an above-average player. If you have an above-average player at all positions, then you probably have a team more dominant than the Big Red Machine.

As for Heisey vs. Stubbs, my question for all of you is this: Which would you rather have?

A.) .740 OPS, elite defense, and 60 SB
B.) .800 OPS, solid defense, and 25 SB

I'm not making predictions, but personally, I'd rather have whichever player has the higher upside since as it is now, it looks like they'd have almost identical value at the Major League level.

dougdirt
07-15-2009, 11:21 PM
Stop reading reports and just watch him, Doug. I don't doubt that he can swing harder than what he does in games but that doesn't count for anything where the rubber meets the road.

He tags a ball and drives it to the track. That is because of lack of bat speed. What else could it be? A defective bat?

I have watched plenty of games. He doesn't lack bat speed. I am pretty sure I just saw him on pace with some mid 90's fastballs thrown by Bud Norris in the AAA All Star game.

GOYA
07-15-2009, 11:26 PM
As for Heisey vs. Stubbs, my question for all of you is this: Which would you rather have?

A.) .740 OPS, elite defense, and 60 SB
B.) .800 OPS, solid defense, and 25 SB

I'm not making predictions, but personally, I'd rather have whichever player has the higher upside since as it is now, it looks like they'd have almost identical value at the Major League level.

Heisey 2009 - 1.005 OPS
Stubbs 2009 - .733 OPS

Apparently, Stubbs will improve in the majors and Heisey will drop? I think you are making predictions.

GOYA
07-15-2009, 11:29 PM
I have watched plenty of games. He doesn't lack bat speed. I am pretty sure I just saw him on pace with some mid 90's fastballs thrown by Bud Norris in the AAA All Star game.

Not bat speed in putting the bat into the strikezone. Bat speed in how quick the bat moves through the strikezone. He doesn't generate the bat speed that puts balls over the fence.

dougdirt
07-15-2009, 11:32 PM
Not bat speed in putting the bat into the strikezone. Bat speed in how quick the bat moves through the strikezone. He doesn't generate the bat speed that puts balls over the fence.

I am confused.... are you suggesting he slows down his bat speed once he gets into the zone?

dougdirt
07-15-2009, 11:40 PM
What the heck was that?!

11larkin11
07-15-2009, 11:40 PM
...Stubbs has bat speed

GOYA
07-15-2009, 11:41 PM
LOL, nevermind

Plus Plus
07-15-2009, 11:41 PM
Lack of power for Stubbs- case in point.

11larkin11
07-15-2009, 11:42 PM
That was a SHOT. Hit the top of that huge brick wall in left. He does have Tower Power

LoganBuck
07-15-2009, 11:43 PM
Another example of Stubbs' Power Ragu. Its in there.

GOYA
07-15-2009, 11:48 PM
Now why in the hell doesn't he do that more? I've seen that power twice now since he came to the Bats.

dougdirt
07-15-2009, 11:49 PM
Now why in the hell doesn't he do that more? I've seen that power twice now since he came to the Bats.

I contend that he is still getting used to using his 'newer' swing. He has the potential in there to be a guy with solid power, it just isn't all there yet.

GOYA
07-15-2009, 11:53 PM
Anybody hear a distance on that shot? It was well hit but it's a short porch in left.

http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v226/GOYA_551st/StubbsHR.jpg

LoganBuck
07-15-2009, 11:58 PM
I want to say 405 but I can't guarantee that. Too many homeruns hit in short succession.

GOYA
07-16-2009, 12:04 AM
I am confused.... are you suggesting he slows down his bat speed once he gets into the zone?

Let's discuss this later. :D

OnBaseMachine
07-16-2009, 12:05 AM
If Stubbs can ever develop 15 HR power he'll be an All-Star. The rest of his game is impressive. Hopefully the power comes. He doesn't hit many homers, but when he hits them they are usually bombs.

dougdirt
07-16-2009, 12:15 AM
Does that pop up mean Drew sucks again? ;)

redhawk61
07-16-2009, 12:19 AM
Does that pop up mean Drew sucks again? ;)
It means he is the powerless Willy T

GOYA
07-16-2009, 12:20 AM
Does that pop up mean Drew sucks again? ;)

Does one well hit HR in a PCL park mean he's a slugger? ;)

camisadelgolf
07-16-2009, 12:24 AM
Heisey 2009 - 1.005 OPS
Stubbs 2009 - .733 OPS

Apparently, Stubbs will improve in the majors and Heisey will drop? I think you are making predictions.
I came up with the OPS numbers by using about 95% of their career minor league numbers. I would call that more objective than the small sample size you're referencing.

dougdirt
07-16-2009, 12:47 AM
Does one well hit HR in a PCL park mean he's a slugger? ;)

Of course not. There have been some bombs hit in this game. The PCL isn't a hitters paradise for nothing. Still, all of the HR's hit in this game would be out of any stadium.

bucksfan2
07-16-2009, 09:39 AM
If Stubbs can ever develop 15 HR power he'll be an All-Star. The rest of his game is impressive. Hopefully the power comes. He doesn't hit many homers, but when he hits them they are usually bombs.

Its funny how much crap Stubbs takes from his lack of HR's. I had always thought and still believe that power will develop and come as a player matures through the minors and gets more atbats at higher levels. I found it odd with all the hoopla that Joe Mauer has gotten that in the first half he has already exceeded his career high in HR's. In 4+ years of being a perenial MVP candidate, Mauer had a combined total of 44 HRs. In 2009 he now has 15 HR's and would probably have more had he not missed time early in the season.

Stubbs likely will never hit like Mauer does. Mauer may have on of the best bats in the entire game, but he finally developed power, now 4 years into the league. We don't know what Stubbs is working on, what the FO wants him to concentrate upon, or how he really projects into the big leagues. The guy has hit some balls that prove he has power, it is just harnessing that power. He has two things in his favor as he develops in the major leagues, his ability to take a walk and get on base and his ability to go get the ball in the outfield.

As for pitchers being able to attack the zone because Stubbs is a light hitter, he may just hit the ball another 450 feet if they aren't careful.

krm1580
07-16-2009, 11:51 AM
Its funny how much crap Stubbs takes from his lack of HR's. I had always thought and still believe that power will develop and come as a player matures through the minors and gets more atbats at higher levels. I found it odd with all the hoopla that Joe Mauer has gotten that in the first half he has already exceeded his career high in HR's. In 4+ years of being a perenial MVP candidate, Mauer had a combined total of 44 HRs. In 2009 he now has 15 HR's and would probably have more had he not missed time early in the season.

Stubbs likely will never hit like Mauer does. Mauer may have on of the best bats in the entire game, but he finally developed power, now 4 years into the league. We don't know what Stubbs is working on, what the FO wants him to concentrate upon, or how he really projects into the big leagues. The guy has hit some balls that prove he has power, it is just harnessing that power. He has two things in his favor as he develops in the major leagues, his ability to take a walk and get on base and his ability to go get the ball in the outfield.

As for pitchers being able to attack the zone because Stubbs is a light hitter, he may just hit the ball another 450 feet if they aren't careful.

For me Stubbs lack of power is not that big of an issue. What is an issue for me is his lack of power combined with his high K rates. Guys like an Adam Dunn or a Ryan Howard you always hear "We are willing to live with the high K rates for the power they provide". Stubbs does not provide that type of power.

If Stubbs put up the same BB/K rates that Joe Mauer did I would be completely happy with his power numbers.

Orenda
07-16-2009, 12:04 PM
For me Stubbs lack of power is not that big of an issue. What is an issue for me is his lack of power combined with his high K rates. Guys like an Adam Dunn or a Ryan Howard you always hear "We are willing to live with the high K rates for the power they provide". Stubbs does not provide that type of power.

If Stubbs put up the same BB/K rates that Joe Mauer did I would be completely happy with his power numbers.

Chris Dickerson has produced at the top of the order despite his high K numbers and while he's not a guy that hits a lot of homeruns he certainly has the power when he turns on one.

camisadelgolf
07-16-2009, 12:59 PM
Drew Stubbs strikes out less than Dickerson, plays better defense, has much more speed, and showed more power at the same levels/ages. Meanwhile, many of us here would be happy with Dickerson getting most of the playing time in center field (regardless of Willy Taveras being on the roster). I just don't understand why some people are so convinced that Drew Stubbs won't have a very good career in MLB.

TRF
07-16-2009, 01:15 PM
Its funny how much crap Stubbs takes from his lack of HR's. I had always thought and still believe that power will develop and come as a player matures through the minors and gets more atbats at higher levels. I found it odd with all the hoopla that Joe Mauer has gotten that in the first half he has already exceeded his career high in HR's. In 4+ years of being a perenial MVP candidate, Mauer had a combined total of 44 HRs. In 2009 he now has 15 HR's and would probably have more had he not missed time early in the season.

Stubbs likely will never hit like Mauer does. Mauer may have on of the best bats in the entire game, but he finally developed power, now 4 years into the league. We don't know what Stubbs is working on, what the FO wants him to concentrate upon, or how he really projects into the big leagues. The guy has hit some balls that prove he has power, it is just harnessing that power. He has two things in his favor as he develops in the major leagues, his ability to take a walk and get on base and his ability to go get the ball in the outfield.

As for pitchers being able to attack the zone because Stubbs is a light hitter, he may just hit the ball another 450 feet if they aren't careful.

I think doug has actually provided us with the answer on Stubbs power to a degree. His swing has been re-worked twice now according to him.

Stubbs is a very Bowdenesque player. Had Bowden been the Reds GM at the time, I can totally see him making the same pick. Toolsy, raw, but with potential.

I wonder if the Reds development team hasn't screwed him up a bit too much. By the end of 2007, it looked like he had some promise. Had he stayed in the FSL, I think he might have hit 10-12 triples, and 35-40 doubles. A lot of that would have been due to the league he was in, but it might have been a great way to groom him as a leadoff hitter.

What I want from Stubbs is the threat of power. That's going to require him hitting at least 10-12 per year. I'm already sick of the 1-3 in the boxscore 3 time a night with WT. Stubbs HAS to have a SLG% that at least makes a pitcher think about not making a mistake.

krm1580
07-16-2009, 01:40 PM
Drew Stubbs strikes out less than Dickerson, plays better defense, has much more speed, and showed more power at the same levels/ages. Meanwhile, many of us here would be happy with Dickerson getting most of the playing time in center field (regardless of Willy Taveras being on the roster). I just don't understand why some people are so convinced that Drew Stubbs won't have a very good career in MLB.

I think a lot of it has to do with perspective. What is the old saying "to whom much has been given, much is expected."

Stubbs, was a high first round pick which unfortunately carries with it great expectation. Pile on the expectation that high pick college guys are supposed to make it majors fast, then throw on the fact that through no fault of his own, some people will always see him as the guy we took instead of Tim Lincecum and you get a guy that right or wrong, will be seen as a disappointment.

Dickerson was a 16th round pick, had no expectations and is seen as a bonus that he is providing anything at the major league level. I can assure you if he was a 1st round pick taken ahead of a star, he would be getting torched on a regular basis for what he is not.

If Stubbs makes the bigs and can be an elite CF with an OPS in the .800-.850 range, I would be very happy.

Scrap Irony
07-16-2009, 01:45 PM
If Stubbs makes the bigs and can be an elite CF with an OPS in the .800-.850 range, I would be very happy.

I don't think anyone here will complain about those numbers from Stubbs. The question is whether that's likely.

TRF
07-16-2009, 02:14 PM
If Stubbs makes the bigs and can be an elite CF with an OPS in the .800-.850 range, I would be very happy.

Well sure since he's never done anything like that in his professional career, I'd be thrilled with it.

mace
07-16-2009, 02:33 PM
Drew Stubbs strikes out less than Dickerson, plays better defense, has much more speed, and showed more power at the same levels/ages. Meanwhile, many of us here would be happy with Dickerson getting most of the playing time in center field (regardless of Willy Taveras being on the roster). I just don't understand why some people are so convinced that Drew Stubbs won't have a very good career in MLB.

I understand that Stubbs is exceptionally fast, and maybe he is that much faster than Dickerson. But just to the eye, Dickerson seems to me to be tremendously fast. It looks as though he gets to first base in no time, and he certainly seems to cover more ground in the outfield than Taveras. Maybe it's just because he runs harder, gets a better jump, whatever. But if Stubbs "has much more speed" than Dickerson, that, to me, would be off the charts.

The other aspect of the argument above . . . Dickerson improved suddenly and without notice. That's not something that can be anticipated in another player.

OnBaseMachine
07-16-2009, 05:11 PM
Scouting (or not) the Triple-A All-Stars

July 16, 2009 4:55 AM

The Triple-A All-Star Game is what it is, with a few outstanding prospects sprinkled among the middle-aged veterans and the guys who are there because every team is guaranteed one representative. (Sound familiar?) The best prospects in the game included outfielders Austin Jackson (Yankees) and Drew Stubbs (Reds), and especially shortstop Alcides Escobar, who is generally regarded as J.J. Hardy's heir apparent in Milwaukee.

How did those guys look? You got me. I'm no scout, and about all I noticed from my seat in the stands is that Stubbs is really, really fast (but you already know that, if you pay attention to such things).

http://myespn.go.com/blogs/sweetspot?tag=drew%20stubbs

LoganBuck
07-16-2009, 05:18 PM
Scouting (or not) the Triple-A All-Stars

July 16, 2009 4:55 AM

The Triple-A All-Star Game is what it is, with a few outstanding prospects sprinkled among the middle-aged veterans and the guys who are there because every team is guaranteed one representative. (Sound familiar?) The best prospects in the game included outfielders Austin Jackson (Yankees) and Drew Stubbs (Reds), and especially shortstop Alcides Escobar, who is generally regarded as J.J. Hardy's heir apparent in Milwaukee.

How did those guys look? You got me. I'm no scout, and about all I noticed from my seat in the stands is that Stubbs is really, really fast (but you already know that, if you pay attention to such things).

http://myespn.go.com/blogs/sweetspot?tag=drew%20stubbs

"You may not know it to look at me, but I can run like the wind blows!"

bucksfan2
07-16-2009, 05:34 PM
I was looking at Rickey Henderson's stats and saw something that he never really developed much power until his 6th season in the big leagues. He went on to become a pretty prolific HR hitter when you consider the rest of his game. For most of his early career his biggest asset was his ability to get on base.

I think its a little too early to say that Stubbs won't develop power. I also think its a little too early to compare him to WT. I also think it is pretty inaccurate to say that opposing pitchers will be able to pound the zone because he can't punish a ball.

From all the reports I see it seems that everywhere Stubbs goes he catches scouts and fans eyes. He may always strike out a little more than people want him to do and we he won't steal 60+ bases a season but I foresee him becoming a game changer roaming CF in GABP for the next decade.

OnBaseMachine
07-16-2009, 05:39 PM
--JOCKETTY ON STUBBS: Walt Jocketty agrees with the Baker on rushing Drew Stubbs.

“I saw him play three games last week. I saw that All-Star Game last night. He’s getting closer. You don’t want to rush a guy. Wait till our people think he’s ready. He’s only played Triple-A three months. That’s not rushing a guy.”

“Worst thing you can do is bring a guy here when there are certain things he is working on. I’m not going to say what they are, that’s his business. But if you bring a guy up when he’s not ready, they’ll exploit his weaknesses. It’s a lot tougher here than Triple-A. That’s the worst thing you can do for a guy’ss confidence.”

http://news.cincinnati.com/apps/pbcs.dll/section?category=blog07&plckController=Blog&plckScript=blogScript&plckElementId=blogDest&plckBlogPage=BlogViewPost&plckPostId=Blog%3ae57bcc87-152a-4f72-96fb-cc08b1f396efPost%3ad951c9f8-726e-41d0-a056-b86131ef868e&sid=sitelife.cincinnati.com

TRF
07-16-2009, 06:22 PM
I was looking at Rickey Henderson's stats and saw something that he never really developed much power until his 6th season in the big leagues. He went on to become a pretty prolific HR hitter when you consider the rest of his game. For most of his early career his biggest asset was his ability to get on base.

I think its a little too early to say that Stubbs won't develop power. I also think its a little too early to compare him to WT. I also think it is pretty inaccurate to say that opposing pitchers will be able to pound the zone because he can't punish a ball.

From all the reports I see it seems that everywhere Stubbs goes he catches scouts and fans eyes. He may always strike out a little more than people want him to do and we he won't steal 60+ bases a season but I foresee him becoming a game changer roaming CF in GABP for the next decade.

Rickey wasn't 6' 5". It's going to be hard for him to keep that speed. Not impossible, but hard.

pitcher7
07-16-2009, 07:41 PM
If anyone saw Stubb's home run in the all-star game, he has pretty good raw power. Honestly, developing power would just be a bonus for a guy who steals bases at a high rate, plays gold glove defense in center, and draws enough walks (at least more than Willy)

Kingspoint
07-16-2009, 07:57 PM
Anybody hear a distance on that shot? It was well hit but it's a short porch in left.

http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v226/GOYA_551st/StubbsHR.jpg

That red dot should have been touching the M in Miller, as that's where it hit.

Kingspoint
07-16-2009, 08:00 PM
--JOCKETTY ON STUBBS: Walt Jocketty agrees with the Baker on rushing Drew Stubbs.

“I saw him play three games last week. I saw that All-Star Game last night. He’s getting closer. You don’t want to rush a guy. Wait till our people think he’s ready. He’s only played Triple-A three months. That’s not rushing a guy.”

“Worst thing you can do is bring a guy here when there are certain things he is working on. I’m not going to say what they are, that’s his business. But if you bring a guy up when he’s not ready, they’ll exploit his weaknesses. It’s a lot tougher here than Triple-A. That’s the worst thing you can do for a guy’ss confidence.”

http://news.cincinnati.com/apps/pbcs.dll/section?category=blog07&plckController=Blog&plckScript=blogScript&plckElementId=blogDest&plckBlogPage=BlogViewPost&plckPostId=Blog%3ae57bcc87-152a-4f72-96fb-cc08b1f396efPost%3ad951c9f8-726e-41d0-a056-b86131ef868e&sid=sitelife.cincinnati.com

Other than Daryl Thompson, Jockety's been just as good as Krivsky at this. It's a huge positive that Jockety hasn't been a negative after Krivsky. Our minor league system is in good hands.

I do wish he could acquire a few more minor league players through trades, though, and continue to try to improve the overall talent of the system.

dougdirt
07-17-2009, 01:44 AM
That red dot should have been touching the M in Miller, as that's where it hit.

And that red dot is probably where it would have landed if there were a 30 foot tall wall beyond the normal wall.

Kingspoint
07-17-2009, 07:38 PM
And that red dot is probably where it would have landed if there were a 30 foot tall wall beyond the normal wall.

That's drawing is a very distorted view of the actual ballpark anyway. If home to 3rd base is 90 feet, then extending that line would make the outfield wall where it says "317" feet, "415" feet. The dimensions of that little drawing are very distorted.

dougdirt
07-18-2009, 03:07 AM
That's drawing is a very distorted view of the actual ballpark anyway. If home to 3rd base is 90 feet, then extending that line would make the outfield wall where it says "317" feet, "415" feet. The dimensions of that little drawing are very distorted.
The drawing is distorted slightly, but not as much as you seem to be suggesting.