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44Magnum
06-01-2009, 09:50 AM
You can't keep running him out in the #5 spot and be serious about winning. His FB is 89 and his offspeed stuff is 83. He does not have an out pitch. I fail to see how anyone can think he can be a decent MLB pitcher.

Ghosts of 1990
06-01-2009, 11:31 AM
I agree with you. The guy is either mediocre to the tune of 3 or 4 ER over 5 or 6 innings or he's allowed 5 by 2 IP. He got hit so hard last year down the stretch in a pitcher's park in Arizona and the Dbacks gave up on him as an organization adn they were laughing when they lured Adam Dunn with Owings as the key of the trade coming back. Jocketty doesn't wanna look stupid; so he is gonna run Owings out there as many times as he can........ We'll never get to where we all wanna get with Owings in the rotation. He is absolutely horrible.

nineworldseries
06-01-2009, 11:39 AM
It's definitely time to give up on this experiment and pull a Rick Ankiel on him. He's proven to be much more effective as a pinch-hitter than a pitcher. The only thing is, I don't see any other option at this point until Volquez returns (and even after Volquez returns). Would Homer Bailey really be any better in the 5th spot? I don't think so.

Ghosts of 1990
06-01-2009, 12:04 PM
Homer has better stuff then Micah. Homer didn't pitch all that bad. His control was the problem. I think Homer should get the 10+ starts this year Micah is gonna get before we draw a conclusion.

NeilHamburger
06-01-2009, 12:16 PM
cough Nick Masset cough

Brutus
06-01-2009, 12:29 PM
I agree with you. The guy is either mediocre to the tune of 3 or 4 ER over 5 or 6 innings or he's allowed 5 by 2 IP. He got hit so hard last year down the stretch in a pitcher's park in Arizona and the Dbacks gave up on him as an organization adn they were laughing when they lured Adam Dunn with Owings as the key of the trade coming back. Jocketty doesn't wanna look stupid; so he is gonna run Owings out there as many times as he can........ We'll never get to where we all wanna get with Owings in the rotation. He is absolutely horrible.

I continue to be amazed at this.

Micah Owings is not a great pitcher. We've established this. It takes one glance at his career averages to see he's slightly below average. But has anyone actually looked at the bottom of the teams' rotations?

The National League average in runs scored is right around 4.60 runs per game typically. This means that to counteract all the Johan Santanas, Jake Peavys, Chris Carpenters and Chad Billingsleys, etc. out there, there are a lot of pitchers getting trounced on a nightly basis.

That means most teams' fifth, and sometimes fourth starters are giving up nearly 5-7 runs per nine innings. Owings is slightly below 5 ERA which means he's actually far better than most options other teams have.

Here are the aggregate 5th starter ERA's for the NL teams this season (Micah Owings 5.10 ERA):

4.72
4.73
4.80
4.83
4.99
(Owings 5.10)
5.17
5.23
5.36
5.53
5.85
6.43
6.57
6.75
7.69
9.66

This means that prior to yesterday's game, only two teams had a better ERA out of their aggregate fifth starters than did Owings (4.75). Right now, only five do.

The collective ERA out of all these aforementioned fifth starters: 5.81 (433 earned runs allowed in 670 innings).

This means Owings is three quarters an earned run better than the average league fifth starter. He's only just a little over a quarter of a run from being the best 5th starter in the National League (and was just about that until yesterday's game).

I would say based on this, that Reds fans should probably focus their worries elsewhere, rather than a pretty productive (relative to the league) fifth starter. When you consider Owings' run production as a pitcher, he becomes the most valuable fifth starter around.

Griffey012
06-01-2009, 12:32 PM
People quickly forget how much better Owings has been then the trash we ran out there last year.

Chris Sabowned
06-01-2009, 12:36 PM
I continue to be amazed at this.

Micah Owings is not a great pitcher. We've established this. It takes one glance at his career averages to see he's slightly below average. But has anyone actually looked at the bottom of the teams' rotations?

The National League average in runs scored is right around 4.60 runs per game typically. This means that to counteract all the Johan Santanas, Jake Peavys, Chris Carpenters and Chad Billingsleys, etc. out there, there are a lot of pitchers getting trounced on a nightly basis.

That means most teams' fifth, and sometimes fourth starters are giving up nearly 5-7 runs per nine innings. Owings is slightly below 5 ERA which means he's actually far better than most options other teams have.

Here are the aggregate 5th starter ERA's for the NL teams this season (Micah Owings 5.10 ERA):

4.72
4.73
4.80
4.83
4.99
(Owings 5.10)
5.17
5.23
5.36
5.53
5.85
6.43
6.57
6.75
7.69
9.66

This means that prior to yesterday's game, only two teams had a better ERA out of their aggregate fifth starters than did Owings (4.75). Right now, only six do.

The collective ERA out of all these aforementioned fifth starters: 5.81 (433 earned runs allowed in 670 innings).

This means Owings is three quarters an earned run better than the average league fifth starter. He's only just a little over a quarter of a run from being the best 5th starter in the National League (and was just about that until yesterday's game).

I would say based on this, that Reds fans should probably focus their worries elsewhere, rather than a pretty productive (relative to the league) fifth starter. When you consider Owings' run production as a pitcher, he becomes the most valuable fifth starter around.


I nominate this for the most rational response to an argument award. Not only is he doing just fine for a 5th starter, but its not like we have someone waiting in the wings to replace him. Massett is doing great in the bullpen, leave him there. Homer showed last week he's still not MLB material. Thompson, Ramirez, Maloney? No one can honestly tell me that they think any of those guys could do a better job than Owings is doing.

Moosie52
06-01-2009, 12:42 PM
Does Harang also have to go? Based on his last performance, he isn't good enough to be a #5.

schmidty622
06-01-2009, 12:44 PM
I continue to be amazed at this.

Micah Owings is not a great pitcher. We've established this. It takes one glance at his career averages to see he's slightly below average. But has anyone actually looked at the bottom of the teams' rotations?

The National League average in runs scored is right around 4.60 runs per game typically. This means that to counteract all the Johan Santanas, Jake Peavys, Chris Carpenters and Chad Billingsleys, etc. out there, there are a lot of pitchers getting trounced on a nightly basis.

That means most teams' fifth, and sometimes fourth starters are giving up nearly 5-7 runs per nine innings. Owings is slightly below 5 ERA which means he's actually far better than most options other teams have.

Here are the aggregate 5th starter ERA's for the NL teams this season (Micah Owings 5.10 ERA):

4.72
4.73
4.80
4.83
4.99
(Owings 5.10)
5.17
5.23
5.36
5.53
5.85
6.43
6.57
6.75
7.69
9.66

This means that prior to yesterday's game, only two teams had a better ERA out of their aggregate fifth starters than did Owings (4.75). Right now, only six do.

The collective ERA out of all these aforementioned fifth starters: 5.81 (433 earned runs allowed in 670 innings).

This means Owings is three quarters an earned run better than the average league fifth starter. He's only just a little over a quarter of a run from being the best 5th starter in the National League (and was just about that until yesterday's game).

I would say based on this, that Reds fans should probably focus their worries elsewhere, rather than a pretty productive (relative to the league) fifth starter. When you consider Owings' run production as a pitcher, he becomes the most valuable fifth starter around.

Bingo. It doesn't help that Owings has had to face the other teams #1 or #2 starters the last few times out. He is the best option we have as the number five starter right now, maybe with the exception of Maloney, who I would really like to see get a shot at some point.

Rockermann
06-01-2009, 12:49 PM
I continue to be amazed at this....

The collective ERA out of all these aforementioned fifth starters: 5.81 (433 earned runs allowed in 670 innings).

This means Owings is three quarters an earned run better than the average league fifth starter. He's only just a little over a quarter of a run from being the best 5th starter in the National League (and was just about that until yesterday's game).

I would say based on this, that Reds fans should probably focus their worries elsewhere, rather than a pretty productive (relative to the league) fifth starter. When you consider Owings' run production as a pitcher, he becomes the most valuable fifth starter around.

I knew some one would come along and state this much better than I could. There is no doubt, to this point that Owings is a SOLID improvement for us in the 5th slot. Not something to fret over at this point at all.

Dude Rock
06-01-2009, 12:57 PM
Here's a post I made in another thread about quality starts by our starters:

Quality Starts by Reds pitchers:

Harang
11 starts
6+ innings - 7 times
3 or less runs in those 6+ innings (quality start) - 5 times
3 or less runs in less than 6 innings - 2 times

Cueto
10 starts
6+ innings - 9 times (impressive)
3 or less runs in those 6+ innings (quality start) - 7 times
3 or less runs in less than 6 innings - 1 time
(gave up 4 runs in his 2 other games - very impressive)

Arroyo
10 starts
6+ innings - 8 times
The only 2 times he didn't go 6+ innings we know he got lit up for 9 ER in each of two games.
3 or less runs in 6+ innings (quality start) - 6 times

Volquez
8 starts
6+ innings - 4 times
3 or less runs in 6+ innings (quality start) - 3 times
3 or less runs in less than 6 innings - 2 times
In his other 3 starts he gave up 4, 6, and 7 ER's.

Owings
9 starts
6+ innings - 3 times
3 or less earned runs in 6+ innings (quality start) - 2 times
3 or less earned runs in less than 6 innings - 3 times

Recap - quality starts by Reds pitchers:
Cueto - 7
Arroyo - 6
Harang - 5
Volquez - 3
Owings - 2

Recap - 4 or less earned runs given up by Reds starters in any amount of innings:
Cueto - all of his starts - 10 times (10 starts)
Owings - 7 times (9 starts)
Harang - 7 times (11 starts)
Arroyo - 6 times (10 starts)
Volquez - 5 times (8 starts)

bounty37h
06-01-2009, 12:57 PM
Homer has better stuff then Micah. Homer didn't pitch all that bad. His control was the problem. I think Homer should get the 10+ starts this year Micah is gonna get before we draw a conclusion.

Inst control a big part of pitching??? He can have all the "stuff" in the world, if he cant control it, it doesnt matter. Why not give Micah the 10 starts then as well before we drawa a conclusion, we at least know what we are getting with him, until Homer proves he is the real deal and deserves a shot? No doubt we are going to need better production out of the #5 spot, whoever it is, I just dont see the clear option yet.

Griffey012
06-01-2009, 01:11 PM
I wouldn't mind Masset getting a shot if he continues tp pitch like he has, but in all reality I don't see anyone in AAA putting up better numbers than Owings has. I wouldn't mind seeing Maloney get a shot, but I wouldnt bet he would do any better.

Dude Rock
06-01-2009, 01:18 PM
I wouldn't mind Masset getting a shot if he continues tp pitch like he has, but in all reality I don't see anyone in AAA putting up better numbers than Owings has. I wouldn't mind seeing Maloney get a shot, but I wouldnt bet he would do any better.

I wanted to see Maloney for two reasons:
1. He deserves a shot with his sub-3.00 e.r.a.
2. He's a lefty.

Dude Rock
06-01-2009, 01:22 PM
Well.......almost like clockwork I went to check the minor league scores and Maloney is pitching today. Through 5 innings, he's allowed 2 hits, 0 runs, 0 walks, and 7 K's and his e.r.a. is down to 2.13.

Also, on the minor league game thread, someone said that Maloney is pitching against one of the best offense in the league, Scranton Wilkes-Barre.

How can anyone think this kid doesn't deserve a shot over Bailey?

Link to boxscore: http://web.minorleaguebaseball.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?t=g_box&gid=2009_06_01_louaaa_swbaaa_1&did=t416&sid=t416

Edit: Yonder Alonso was promoted to double A today.

Brutus
06-01-2009, 01:35 PM
Well.......almost like clockwork I went to check the minor league scores and Maloney is pitching today. Through 5 innings, he's allowed 2 hits, 0 runs, 0 walks, and 7 K's and his e.r.a. is down to 2.13.

How can anyone think this kid doesn't deserve a shot over Bailey?

Link to boxscore: http://web.minorleaguebaseball.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?t=g_box&gid=2009_06_01_louaaa_swbaaa_1&did=t416&sid=t416

I've been on the Maloney bandwagon a while now. I like the kid. Personally, though, while I do not 'want' to trade him, I wonder if he would not be a great sell high candidate in a trade this summer. I think Maloney could come up and be a great fourth or fifth starter in the major leagues. He might be good enough to sustain a solid career. However, because his ceiling may be limited due to lacking any 'out' pitches at the big league level. For that reason, perhaps the Reds could take advantage of his performance and move him in the right deal.

Either way, I am very high on his production. If he's not traded, perhaps if the Reds jettison Harang or Arroyo (or both) in the next 12 months, they'll find a spot for him.

Dude Rock
06-01-2009, 01:40 PM
Maloney:
6 IP
2 hits
0 ER
0 Walks
9 K's
2.10 e.r.a

44Magnum
06-01-2009, 01:59 PM
So, I guess what some are saying is that while Owings is pretty bad, at least he's not horrible? Come on. I don't care what other team's #5 starters do or don't do. Owings is terrible with no chance of improvement. He is what he is.

There is no doubt that Homer would do much better over the strech of an entire season.

BTW, I don't care who they try out at #5 as long as it's not Owings. He tried and failed miserabley.

Brutus
06-01-2009, 02:04 PM
So, I guess what some are saying is that while Owings is pretty bad, at least he's not horrible? Come on. I don't care what other team's #5 starters do or don't do. Owings is terrible with no chance of improvement. He is what he is.

There is no doubt that Homer would do much better over the strech of an entire season.

BTW, I don't care who they try out at #5 as long as it's not Owings. He tried and failed miserabley.

It does matter. Owings was just barely below an average major league pitcher and he's the Reds' fifth starter. The Reds are competing against the other teams in the league. If they are getting better production than 75 percent of the other teams (100 percent if you take into account hitting given the close proximity Owings has been to the top 5th starters in baseball), then it shows the Reds are doing just fine.

Dude Rock posted that Owings has given up four or fewer runs in 7 of his 9 outings this season. That's huge. That means if the bullpen does its' job, in over 75 percent of his starts, a league average offensive output would win the game with Owings on the mound. That is incredible for a fifth starter.

Caveman Techie
06-01-2009, 02:26 PM
So, I guess what some are saying is that while Owings is pretty bad, at least he's not horrible? Come on. I don't care what other team's #5 starters do or don't do. Owings is terrible with no chance of improvement. He is what he is.

There is no doubt that Homer would do much better over the strech of an entire season.

BTW, I don't care who they try out at #5 as long as it's not Owings. He tried and failed miserabley.

Homer's 7.01 career ERA say's your wrong. And I would say your definition of miserably is a little stringent. Owings has been for the most part average. When you can say that about your NUMBER 5 starter I'd say your doing alright.

Dude Rock
06-01-2009, 02:48 PM
The only way I replace Owings is if I can do better, such as bring Maloney up for a start and he pitches a gem, or we trade for another starter without giving up anyone currently in the rotation. Then I consider using Owings out of the bullpen.

Bailey has proven he isn't ready with his +7.00 e.r.a. in the majors and his 4.50 e.r.a. in triple A this year.

I am not opposed to trading and upgrading our rotation, purely because our offense stinks, Votto is out for awhile, and we need to win on our pitching.

Dude Rock
06-01-2009, 02:50 PM
Maloney
9 IP
2 hits
0 walks
10 K's
2.04 e.r.a.

Pretty impressive. Scranton Wilkes-Barre's team had 4 hitters batting over .300 and is considered on of the best in the league.

I'm not pronouncing him the saviour. I'm just saying he deserves a shot. If he fails miserably, I'll give him the same raking as I do Homer.

Dude Rock
06-01-2009, 03:05 PM
In other developments........a good discussion on the ORG turned up this post:


"In the game last night either Welsh or Brantley talked about Owings tiring after ~75 pitches. They had stats to back it up (they were ugly) and showed what his arm angle/motion was doing in the 4th & 5th innings that it wasn't doing in the first 3 innings.

My question for those who know more than me: is this due to his shoulder injury and he needs time to rebuild arm strength or is this a sign that he needs to be in the bullpen? - Will M

Maybe Owings hasn't quite recovered from his shoulder injury last year and maybe he should be more of a long reliever?

Link to thread: http://www.redszone.com/forums/showthread.php?t=76054

BluegrassRedleg
06-01-2009, 03:41 PM
I couldn't have put it any better than Brutus did. He's a 5th starter. He is what he is.

The Reds have about a half dozen other problems before 5th starter IMO.

Fon Duc Tow
06-01-2009, 04:16 PM
The #5 pitching spot for the Reds last year won them 2 games.

2 games.

I could see making the point to pull him after 75 pitches, but as a #5 he is just fine.

berryluther
06-01-2009, 05:13 PM
I am starting to think he needs sent down to Louisville to learn how to play left field.

lidspinner
06-01-2009, 05:42 PM
In my opinion, a great hitting pitcher needs is more effective as a long reliever any day of the week. Wouldnt it be nice to have a guy be able to guy that extra inning and not get pulled just becasue he was due up to hit? Not to mention we might get some more AB's out of him this way. Its just a thought.

Wallyposter
06-01-2009, 08:04 PM
I vote for Nick Masset and Owings switching spots. Masset has pitched well and deserves a shot. Keeping Owings around for long relief and pinch hitting could also be beneficial. I think it is worth a try. If that fails, then I'm all for giving Maloney the #5 spot.