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Ghosts of 1990
06-02-2009, 11:02 AM
http://insider.espn.go.com/fantasy/baseball/flb/story?page=clipboard090601

However, there are good reasons to think that average is going to be on the way up in the future. Bruce is simply too talented to hit in that range for long, especially in light of the improvements in his approach at the plate. The other reason is purely statistical. Bruce has an extremely unlucky .221 batting average on balls in play (as opposed to a .298 mark his rookie season, which was right around the norm).

How unlucky is that number? It is the third-worst BABIP mark in baseball, behind only Brian Giles and Garrett Atkins, and that's likely to even out over the balance of the season.

Jefferson24
06-02-2009, 11:15 AM
I think he'll have a good second half this year. I look forward to the day that Bruce is hitting well, EE is healthy and hitting well, and Votto is healthy. When that day comes and the pitching continues to do well the Reds will be one tough team to beat.

Ghosts of 1990
06-02-2009, 09:17 PM
2nd straight game he's hit a rocket at someone and caught. This is getting ridiculous

Edit: his third game in a row. I forgot Braun robbed him in Milwaukee on sunday of extra bases

ochoa30
06-02-2009, 09:21 PM
2nd straight game he's hit a rocket at someone and caught. This is getting ridiculous

he needs to get a gun and start shooting at the fielder nearest the ball. try catching it then.

Ghosts of 1990
06-02-2009, 09:24 PM
People are starting to take notice:

http://twinkillingsite.blogspot.com/2009/06/why-all-panic-surrounding-jay-bruce.html

BluegrassRedleg
06-04-2009, 02:18 AM
Interesting take on the situation, but I'm not sure I completely buy it. His poor approach has led to a lot of wasted ABs this year more than hitting into "bad luck" IMHO.

Ghosts of 1990
06-04-2009, 04:07 AM
The stat BABIP being low has nothing to do with poor approach and more to do with hitting it right at people.

DTCromer
06-04-2009, 08:36 AM
How much longer until we stop excusing Jay for being so bad? My favorite stat, BA w/ RISP. . . he's terrible at and always has been.

Yes, Jay is 22 but he's having the same problems at the plate that he's been having in the minors. The worst AB I've ever seen came from Jay. I went to a Louisville game last year less than a month prior to his call up. The pitcher starts the game with 8 straight balls. Jay comes up and what does he do? He swings at the first pitch (up and out of the strike zone, mind you) and pops it up. Next guy GIDP. . . inning over.

Worst. AB. Ever. That was my first inclination that this guy A) still has a lot of learning to do or B) Really is that dumb at the plate. I'm beginning to think it's B.

So I think the question is, when we do stop excusing Jay from a lot of his wasted AB's? I feel like this is Adam Dunn: Part Deux.

schmidty622
06-04-2009, 09:24 AM
The stat BABIP being low has nothing to do with poor approach and more to do with hitting it right at people.

His line drive rate is one of the worst in the league which plays a significant factor in BABIP.

I would direct you here for a good write up of Bruces struggles -

http://www.redreporter.com/2009/6/3/897511/jay-bruce-is-young-and-talented

BluegrassRedleg
06-04-2009, 03:53 PM
The stat BABIP being low has nothing to do with poor approach and more to do with hitting it right at people.

I wasn't referring to his BABIP. I said his bigger issue has been his poor approach at the plate, which has seen him waste a lot of ABs. If you take those out of the equation, his "bad luck" would not be magnified like it is now.

PhillipsHead
06-04-2009, 04:51 PM
How much longer until we stop excusing Jay for being so bad? My favorite stat, BA w/ RISP. . . he's terrible at and always has been.

Yes, Jay is 22 but he's having the same problems at the plate that he's been having in the minors. The worst AB I've ever seen came from Jay. I went to a Louisville game last year less than a month prior to his call up. The pitcher starts the game with 8 straight balls. Jay comes up and what does he do? He swings at the first pitch (up and out of the strike zone, mind you) and pops it up. Next guy GIDP. . . inning over.

Worst. AB. Ever. That was my first inclination that this guy A) still has a lot of learning to do or B) Really is that dumb at the plate. I'm beginning to think it's B.

So I think the question is, when we do stop excusing Jay from a lot of his wasted AB's? I feel like this is Adam Dunn: Part Deux.

This is a tremendously flawed line of thinking. A pitcher starts the game with 8 straight balls...so that's an automatic take right? Wrong... While it is technically smart baseball to take a strike, it is not smart on the flip side to take the best possible pitch that you might see if it's a get-over fastball. If the pitcher decides 'I need to get one in there' and grooves a pitch right down the middle, is it a good take in any scenario? You ALWAYS go up to the plate ready to swing regardless of circumstances, and if the first pitch is a meatball after 8 straight balls, I have no problem with that. If you know for a fact that that was a horrible pitch he swung at, then I will condemn that. But if he hits a 3-run homer on that pitch, he's your hero. Get off his nuts...it happens to the best of them...

BLEEDS
06-04-2009, 05:26 PM
You know, I'm starting to be really worried about this whole " Bruce is "UNLUCKY" because of his BAPIP" crap.
Even though his LD% is very low, some people are still clinging to this.

I just hope it's not the "same" "Unlucky" that had everyong clinging to Matt Belisle for so long. His BAPIPA - BAPIP against - was so "unlucky", and everyone was convinced he would turn it around because his FIP and DIP ERA, etc, etc, was so good.
Now, he's practically out of baseball.

My take on Belisle was - MAYBE he's so "UNLUCKY" with his BAPIPA because, oh I don't know - HIS STUFF SUCKS?!?!? Maybe being "UNLUCKY" really means he's tossing up softball practice. If your stuff isn't good, then more likely people are hitting your BIP "harder" than normal, which will more often result in fast grounders that are more likely to get through holes, more solid LD's that are harder to get to because they are rockets, etc, etc...

I haven't seen enough of Bruce to proclaim that maybe his BAPIP is so bad because his approach is to terrible that he's ending up with more slow dribblers that are easy outs, etc, etc...
I have followed enough game threads and read enough to know he has had more than his fair share of solid hits right at people, but who knows.

That read that Schmidty623 linked seem to point to some of my fears.
His lack of line drives is what is the problem.
He's not hitting the ball solid.
That isn't luck, that is not getting good solid powerful swings on the ball.

I'm going to have to go read more, but I don't think we can keep claiming "unlucky" blindly without seeing if it's really something else.

PEACE

-BLEEDS

DTCromer
06-04-2009, 06:20 PM
This is a tremendously flawed line of thinking. A pitcher starts the game with 8 straight balls...so that's an automatic take right? Wrong... While it is technically smart baseball to take a strike, it is not smart on the flip side to take the best possible pitch that you might see if it's a get-over fastball. If the pitcher decides 'I need to get one in there' and grooves a pitch right down the middle, is it a good take in any scenario? You ALWAYS go up to the plate ready to swing regardless of circumstances, and if the first pitch is a meatball after 8 straight balls, I have no problem with that. If you know for a fact that that was a horrible pitch he swung at, then I will condemn that. But if he hits a 3-run homer on that pitch, he's your hero. Get off his nuts...it happens to the best of them...

Actually, I'm off his nuts and the pitch was up and out of the zone. Make the pitcher pitch. After 8 straight balls, you'd better be taking that pitch unless you're a damned good hitter and Jay has already proved he's not that great.

BluegrassRedleg
06-04-2009, 08:57 PM
Actually, I'm off his nuts and the pitch was up and out of the zone. Make the pitcher pitch. After 8 straight balls, you'd better be taking that pitch unless you're a damned good hitter and Jay has already proved he's not that great.

Exactly. Al Pujols can mash in that situation. Not Jay Bruce. Not yet.

wvu-red-fan
06-04-2009, 09:05 PM
Actually, I'm off his nuts and the pitch was up and out of the zone. Make the pitcher pitch. After 8 straight balls, you'd better be taking that pitch unless you're a damned good hitter and Jay has already proved he's not that great.

A couple things about this.

Many good coaches have sent a player up to the plate after two straight walks and told them to smack the ball. You do not know he did not step into the box with orders to knock the cover off the ball. I am guessing he was batting 3rd, which makes this possible.

Another thing, Jay Bruce has already proved he is not that great? He is 22 years old. He has not proved a thing besides the fact that he might be a very good major league player when he reaches his prime.

He does certainly need to work on his outlook at the plate, but your tone seems a little undeserved at this time.

BLEEDS
06-04-2009, 10:20 PM
A couple things about this.

Many good coaches have sent a player up to the plate after two straight walks and told them to smack the ball. You do not know he did not step into the box with orders to knock the cover off the ball. I am guessing he was batting 3rd, which makes this possible.

Another thing, Jay Bruce has already proved he is not that great? He is 22 years old. He has not proved a thing besides the fact that he might be a very good major league player when he reaches his prime.

He does certainly need to work on his outlook at the plate, but your tone seems a little undeserved at this time.

DT, I would listen to this guy.

He's only posted 7 times in 3 years and 3 months, so when he has a point to make, it obviously must be very important! ;)

I agree 100% with what he says by the way.

PEACE

-BLEEDS

The Voice of IH
06-04-2009, 10:38 PM
Jay Bruce on the Road Trip.........1 for 26

Time to snap out of it BRUCCCCCE

Ghosts of 1990
06-04-2009, 10:47 PM
1951 a young CF named Willie Mays (in his rookie season) was in a terrible slump. His manager Leo Durocher talked to the kid, who was really under a lot of pressure:

"I donīt care if you donīt have a hit for the rest of the season, youīre my starting CF for the remainder of the season".

Thatīs a way of building confidence back.

Bruce is going to be great. I think he misses his buddy Votto.

I think he maybe close to ending the slump, yesterday he was trying to hit the ball to left. In the second flied to deep LF, in the fifth grounded out to SS, in the 8th popped out to SS and again in the 9th. I remember Junior doing this (hitting to LF) before getting in a groove. Maybe tonight Bruce can get a hit or two against a great pitcher.

Ghosts of 1990
06-16-2009, 08:36 PM
once again, Bruce's first at bat of the game is an absolute rocket hit 400 feet and caught at the wall. snake-bitten.

Shawn_RedsFan
06-16-2009, 08:37 PM
once again, Bruce's first at bat of the game is an absolute rocket hit 400 feet and caught at the wall. snake-bitten.

beat me to it

Touche

Ghosts of 1990
06-16-2009, 08:39 PM
He has hit a ball almost every game for the past 12-15 that has been robbed of a hit or a rocket right at someone.

WILD THING
06-17-2009, 03:27 PM
You can see the frustration in his face, especially last night when he hit that ball that almost left the park. If he didn't have bad luck, he wouldn't have any luck at all.

BLEEDS
06-17-2009, 05:11 PM
You can see the frustration in his face, especially last night when he hit that ball that almost left the park. If he didn't have bad luck, he wouldn't have any luck at all.

Woo, despair, and agony on he...

PEACE

-BLEEDS

TC81190
06-17-2009, 05:34 PM
You know, I'm starting to be really worried about this whole " Bruce is "UNLUCKY" because of his BAPIP" crap.
Even though his LD% is very low, some people are still clinging to this.

I just hope it's not the "same" "Unlucky" that had everyong clinging to Matt Belisle for so long. His BAPIPA - BAPIP against - was so "unlucky", and everyone was convinced he would turn it around because his FIP and DIP ERA, etc, etc, was so good.
Now, he's practically out of baseball.

My take on Belisle was - MAYBE he's so "UNLUCKY" with his BAPIPA because, oh I don't know - HIS STUFF SUCKS?!?!? Maybe being "UNLUCKY" really means he's tossing up softball practice. If your stuff isn't good, then more likely people are hitting your BIP "harder" than normal, which will more often result in fast grounders that are more likely to get through holes, more solid LD's that are harder to get to because they are rockets, etc, etc...

I haven't seen enough of Bruce to proclaim that maybe his BAPIP is so bad because his approach is to terrible that he's ending up with more slow dribblers that are easy outs, etc, etc...
I have followed enough game threads and read enough to know he has had more than his fair share of solid hits right at people, but who knows.

That read that Schmidty623 linked seem to point to some of my fears.
His lack of line drives is what is the problem.
He's not hitting the ball solid.
That isn't luck, that is not getting good solid powerful swings on the ball.

I'm going to have to go read more, but I don't think we can keep claiming "unlucky" blindly without seeing if it's really something else.

PEACE

-BLEEDS
Yep. Although with Bruce, I don't know if it's as much slow dribblers and infield pop ups as it is that he just hits a ton of fly balls (the low LD%.) Fly balls fall into play less often than other types of batted balls, in fact, I believe the normal BABIP for a high percentage fly ball hitter comes out to something like .260 (don't hold me to that, I believe I have read that on here before though.) So while he may be a little unlucky, he's also got the type of approach the leads to a lot of his batted balls finding gloves.

Ghosts of 1990
06-17-2009, 05:42 PM
at this point he needs to go on some kind of tear the rest of the way to hit .280 or .270. My goal for him (silly as that is to have) is to see him around .260 with power.

Ghosts of 1990
06-17-2009, 10:09 PM
Just hit a rocket right at the right fielder of course... 1 for 3. That wasnt a bad swing.

Ghosts of 1990
06-18-2009, 04:28 PM
Bruce just ripped another one to the warning track in deep center that Mclouth took away. Third at bat of the thursday afternoon game. This is unreal. The baseball Gods know absolutely no justice with this kid. Every.Single.Day.

Ghosts of 1990
06-21-2009, 03:21 PM
Bruce rips a ball should have been a hit past the second baseman, diving stop and throw to take away a hit. It is never ending.

Ghosts of 1990
06-25-2009, 05:54 PM
Good article from an objective site about Bruce's bad luck

http://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/2009/6/25/922615/jay-bruce-and-balls-in-play

DTCromer
06-25-2009, 06:12 PM
How much longer are we going to justify a .213 BA?

How can any Reds, or baseball fan in general, keep rationalizing about a guy who's been in the majors for more than 1 year and has a career .239 BA?

Can we just admit that Jay Bruce is an "OK" player and call it that? Nothing has shown me anything more than being an "above average" player and there's nothing wrong with that.

freestyle55
06-25-2009, 06:20 PM
Maybe it's just me, but I don't think a lot of people think he's "above average" right now. I think myself, and probably a lot of others, think that he has a very reachable potential of "above average", but at this point, I wouldn't say he's at that level.

Captain Hook
06-25-2009, 06:27 PM
Maybe it's just me, but I don't think a lot of people think he's "above average" right now. I think myself, and probably a lot of others, think that he has a very reachable potential of "above average", but at this point, I wouldn't say he's at that level.

I'll agree with this and add that he already shows above average power and defense.His power numbers might go down eventually if he stops swinging for the fences witch he'll have to do to become a more complete player.He still should be over 30 HR every year.

Ghosts of 1990
06-25-2009, 06:30 PM
His realistic average should be at .260 if things fall for him like they have every other player in baseball virtually; and that is the point of threads like this. If he was around .260 right now, threads like this wouldn't need to exist.

I just want the kid to start a hitting streak over the next month and stay hot.... he's so much more capable and better then his numbers are showing right now.

JayBruce
06-25-2009, 08:02 PM
His realistic average should be at .260 if things fall for him like they have every other player in baseball virtually; and that is the point of threads like this. If he was around .260 right now, threads like this wouldn't need to exist.

I just want the kid to start a hitting streak over the next month and stay hot.... he's so much more capable and better then his numbers are showing right now.

"Realistic average"??? HAHAHAHA. I've never seen that on the back of a baseball card.

Stop making excuses for him. He isn't hitting .200 by accident. He's hitting .200 because, right now, he's not very good.

Plus Plus
06-25-2009, 11:59 PM
Jay Bruce's OPS would be much higher if he would stop swinging every time the count was 3-1 or 2-0. I grow tired of seeing Bruce work the count to 3-1 only to see him swing at a slider 3" off of his hands or a fastball low and in. These weak grounders are what brings his BABIP down more than his bad luck.

Also, just a question. Why does Bruce get a pass on a low BA because of his BABIP but our good friend Willy T doesn't? I know there is a big difference in skill, but I would like to see some rationale.

And JayBruce, his peripherals look just about IDENTICAL to Ryan Braun's. The difference is that Braun is OPSing like .950 and Bruce is OPSing like .775 (with a .215 BA). Their walk% and K% etc are all about identical. Saying that he is not very good is overlooking a lot.

GIDP
06-26-2009, 01:17 AM
Its not that Bruce gets a pass. Its that Bruce isnt getting hits to drop in. We arent saying hes a .300 hitter. We are saying that hes more like a .250-.260 right now if he was getting balls that should drop in to actually drop in.

For as much as willy sucks his BABIP is still 60 points higher than Bruces.

A BABIP is controllable some, LD% and things like that effect it but it only changes what the BABIP average should be suspected. Even with his bad ABs, and yes anyone can notice them, the BABIP is still extremely low.

Ghosts of 1990
06-26-2009, 11:34 AM
Last night: Had a hit up the middle taken away from him by Aaron Hill of Toronto and was called out on strikes on a full count on a horrible call on an outside pitch by an inconsistent zone umpire after a great at bat against a tough lefty. Every single night....

BLEEDS
06-26-2009, 04:55 PM
Good article from an objective site about Bruce's bad luck

http://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/2009/6/25/922615/jay-bruce-and-balls-in-play

So basically there isn't any "bad luck" associated with a high propensity to hit pop-ups/fly balls and to dribble slow grounders in the infield because you are bailing out and/or otherwise trying to pull balls on the outside of the plate?

Check.

If he was CONSISTENTLY hitting sharp liners/grounders that were right at people, then I might buy it, but he's not.

We don't need a thread dedicated to posting everytime he hits a sharp one right at someone. It happens to everybody all the time, just nobody else is batting .213 and having their fans pay so much attention to every at bat.


PEACE

-BLEEDS

GIDP
06-26-2009, 05:21 PM
This thread is so frustrating because people refuse to believe that there is a luck factor in baseball.

PhillipsHead
06-26-2009, 08:29 PM
This thread is so frustrating because refuse to believe that there is a luck factor in baseball.

Have you heard of line outs?

That's what someone on this thread needs to look up.

I'd like to know where Bruce ranks in the league in terms of line-outs. If he's up in the top 5 -- that attributes to bad luck. Because if a hitter is getting numerous hits taken away on line drives right at infielders, or getting hits taken away in the outfield, then I will be more convinced that Bruce is being victimized...