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VR
06-02-2009, 11:20 PM
On a good note.....great outing by Burton!

If Burton and Lincoln can show us what they did the last two nights....and Carlos Fisher can control his stuff....this becomes a very very very good bullpen. (very)

Brutus
06-02-2009, 11:21 PM
it is not about absolutes but team buidling has to be about projecting likely outcomes. The Reds have seemed to subscribe to the Robert Falcon Scott(just read Last Place on Earth) school of forecasting.

If we're talking about team-building, then sure, I absolutely agree with you. However, I believe this discussion began because of a few comments regarding Taveras now being around his career OPS, therefore indicating this is the the Taveras we will see going forward.

For what it's worth, I absolutely do believe this is the real Willy. But I also think no matter the statistical probabilities that things might occur, the outliers can and do happen. At this point, it's easy to say the Reds should not have signed Taveras because the projections dictated this was the likely result. However, the Reds did sign him so it's now a moot point. What Taveras might do going forward is the only relevant issue.

flyer85
06-02-2009, 11:24 PM
What Taveras might do going forward is the only relevant issue.and by far the likeliest outcome is the story told by the back of baseball card. But I think the Reds theory has always been to hope for the best and ignore the worst.

jojo
06-02-2009, 11:31 PM
Though I tend to agree Taveras is what he is, I do occasionally remind myself that projections are just that - projections. When push comes to shove, players still have to play the games. And while I do believe everyone has their own general skill level that they're likely to perform within, it would not be prudent to rule out the possibility that they can exceed those projections and expectations. Players do both incline and decline.

Now, again, I tend to think Taveras and other players will in fact regress to their normal performances. I just hate to deal in a world of absolutes.

I know viewing a player through an estimate of this true skill level isn't romantic and can even seem cruel but it might help to remember that Lucy got a bag full of candy while Linus was left holding an empty bag and in the end he didn't even get the girl.

Brutus
06-02-2009, 11:48 PM
I know viewing a player through an estimate of this true skill level isn't romantic and can even seem cruel but it might help to remember that Lucy got a bag full of candy and in the end Linus didn't even get the girl.

There's a large element of truth to this. Fantasy is almost always better than real life, both for optimists and pessimists. Sometimes it's more worldly to wonder 'what if' than ponder 'what is.' There's a certain romance to always viewing something as a work-in-progress, rather than a predisposed finality.

I can recognize Taveras and the skill level for what he's done and is likely to continue to do. I think there's an Einstein quote, though, that always keeps that 'what if' in my turning.

"Knowledge of what is does not open the door directly to what should be."

Mario-Rijo
06-03-2009, 12:50 AM
There's a large element of truth to this. Fantasy is almost always better than real life, both for optimists and pessimists. Sometimes it's more worldly to wonder 'what if' than ponder 'what is.' There's a certain romance to always viewing something as a work-in-progress, rather than a predisposed finality.

I can recognize Taveras and the skill level for what he's done and is likely to continue to do. I think there's an Einstein quote, though, that always keeps that 'what if' in my turning.

"Knowledge of what is does not open the door directly to what should be."

Very true good stuff. I agree with everyone on Taveras being well not all that good, have from the start. Here's the thing though all he has to do to get real improvement in his game is both extremely simple and although not easy to just do not hard either. Recognize what his job is and get it through his head that his best bet to get on base is to walk there, but at least stop swinging at pitches out of the zone. Absolutes reside mostly in the mind of the players.

Example your pitching to a lineup with the young Barry Bonds hitting 4th and the old Barry Bonds hitting 3rd, with the bases loaded in a win or lose situation. How do you go after them respectively? 2 different players, in large part because Barry wanted to be better and strived to be the best he could be at the plate (all ped jokes aside). Barry became thee most disciplined/selective player I have ever seen without much of if any a hole in his swing. The young Barry was a far cry from that old slugger. Players can change, they can improve but alas they rarely do.

WVRedsFan
06-03-2009, 01:17 AM
Wow, what a deep discussion. Funny things happen after a loss. Willy T is in a slump. Earlier he was pulling his weight. Go figure. Jay Bruce is batting .220, but the "potential" shelters him from criticism. Why? Hernandez has been such an improvement over what we've had at catcher or first base backup. Why is he ignored? The ace pitching staff we had seems to have missed a beat. Harang is hit and miss, Arroyo is, well, Arroyo, Cueto has matured but not enough, Volquez is injured, and Owings is not all that. Lots of room for improvement on a much improved team and yet we quibble over whipping boys. Someday we will win frequently, but for now .500 seems to be our destiny. It's improvement.

Brutus
06-03-2009, 01:20 AM
Wow, what a deep discussion. Funny things happen after a loss. Willy T is in a slump. Earlier he was pulling his weight. Go figure. Jay Bruce is batting .220, but the "potential" shelters him from criticism. Why? Hernandez has been such an improvement over what we've had at catcher or first base backup. Why is he ignored? The ace pitching staff we had seems to have missed a beat. Harang is hit and miss, Arroyo is, well, Arroyo, Cueto has matured but not enough, Volquez is injured, and Owings is not all that. Lots of room for improvement on a much improved team and yet we quibble over whipping boys. Someday we will win frequently, but for now .500 seems to be our destiny. It's improvement.

Hey, I can tell you with a straight face I personally am an equal opportunity critic :thumbup:

WVPacman
06-03-2009, 01:40 AM
Wow, what a deep discussion. Funny things happen after a loss. Willy T is in a slump. Earlier he was pulling his weight. Go figure. Jay Bruce is batting .220, but the "potential" shelters him from criticism. Why? Hernandez has been such an improvement over what we've had at catcher or first base backup. Why is he ignored? The ace pitching staff we had seems to have missed a beat. Harang is hit and miss, Arroyo is, well, Arroyo, Cueto has matured but not enough, Volquez is injured, and Owings is not all that. Lots of room for improvement on a much improved team and yet we quibble over whipping boys. Someday we will win frequently, but for now .500 seems to be our destiny. It's improvement.

Great post WV,I think the players that are playing well need to be praised and the players that are not playing well need to be criticised.I think alot of players that are playing well are not getting praised enough and the same goes for the players that are not pulling their weight out there on the field.They are not getting criticised enough.

Ron Madden
06-03-2009, 04:45 AM
I didn't think he had a legit shot. If I was wrong, fine.


How in the hell can you tell? Your listening to the game on radio.

Ron Madden
06-03-2009, 04:57 AM
And you know he won't for a fact? Sounds like it.

He's in a slump. Plain and simple. Will he revert to the great form he had earlier? Maybe, maybe not. But I don't see him continuing to struggle like this for the remainder of the season. Despite what many here think...he's not a talentless lump of garbage. The kid does have some skills.

Yep, he can run pretty fast.

Ron Madden
06-03-2009, 04:59 AM
How about the league? The world?

Taveras isn't a superstar but mostly he's been in a slump. It's a long season. He'll produce again like he did earlier in the season.


Wanna bet? ;)

Ltlabner
06-03-2009, 06:13 AM
But I still stand by the fact that people have been waiting for the chance to pile on Taveras since day 1.

No, but people pointing out that Willy is who he is, and isn't going to sustain his early season play, shouldn't be considered piling on.


And when that player does well, it's just dumb luck and he'll crash and burn soon enough.

I used to think this way also.

But the reality is players have a certain skill level. Their individual performances from year to year will spike up, and spike down, but you still can draw a specific trend line across a number of years. It's not written in stone, but the past is usually a good indicator of the future baring (1) major skill/talent change (2) environmental change (i.e. move to Colorado) (3) chemical change


So, in other words, every player puts up his career average numbers every season. Nobody ever gets better.

See above.

Players can, and do, improve. But they can only do so within the limitations of their physical skills.

After 1,000,000 swings, I could probably hit a major league fastball further than 9 inches. Doesn't mean I'll hit the next one any sooner, or that I'm a major league player. I can only "improve" within the limits of my physical skills. And while my nun-chuck and hacking skills are pretty good, my baseball physical skills are a bit lacking.

nate
06-03-2009, 08:59 AM
Well, it was one of those nights I DVR'ed the game. Purposely avoided Redszone so as not to get "Seinfelded" and find out the score beforehand. Turned it on and as I was jumping through the commercials after the 1st inning I hit that "magic" button combo that somehow takes you instantly to the end of recording. What's the first thing I see? 5-2, Cards, bottom of the 9th, 2 outs.

Joy.

nate
06-03-2009, 09:02 AM
Wow, what a deep discussion. Funny things happen after a loss. Willy T is in a slump. Earlier he was pulling his weight. Go figure. Jay Bruce is batting .220, but the "potential" shelters him from criticism. Why?

Because Jay Bruce is 22 and developing.

Willy T is 27 and developed.


Hernandez has been such an improvement over what we've had at catcher or first base backup. Why is he ignored?

He isn't.


The ace pitching staff we had seems to have missed a beat. Harang is hit and miss, Arroyo is, well, Arroyo, Cueto has matured but not enough, Volquez is injured, and Owings is not all that. Lots of room for improvement on a much improved team and yet we quibble over whipping boys. Someday we will win frequently, but for now .500 seems to be our destiny. It's improvement.

It is.

Frankly, the complaining about the complaining is more odious than the actual complaining.

traderumor
06-03-2009, 09:21 AM
I don't know if it explains why the sky is blue or where a zebra's stripes come from but it certainly explains why a player cant sustain production that is dramatically different than his true skill level barring injury.Averages are averages. They are made up of career good years and career bad years. There is variation that makes up the mean. But anytime anyone hits a slump, "regression to the mean is a cruel taskmaster." :rolleyes:

jojo
06-03-2009, 09:57 AM
Averages are averages. They are made up of career good years and career bad years. There is variation that makes up the mean. But anytime anyone hits a slump, "regression to the mean is a cruel taskmaster." :rolleyes:

It works both ways when a player hits a slump.... regression to the mean was evoked for Hernandez, Phillips and EE in April when they were performing ridiculously worse than expected at the plate.....

Sure there is a range of expected performance such that a level of production within that range wouldn't be considered out of whack. Taveras OPSing .780 though probably doesn't fall within that range for him.

_Sir_Charles_
06-03-2009, 10:31 AM
How in the hell can you tell? Your listening to the game on radio.

I'm also watching the game via P2P on a delayed feed most often.

Ron Madden
06-04-2009, 04:21 AM
Sorry, but the reason I ask is.. most of the time it really seems like you' re a parrot repeating every observation Marty or Brantley make during the game.

I apologize. :)

_Sir_Charles_
06-04-2009, 08:54 AM
Sorry, but the reason I ask is.. most of the time it really seems like you' re a parrot repeating every observation Marty or Brantley make during the game.

I apologize. :)

Well, I tend to try to repeat the play by play for people who can't listen or watch. I thought that's what we were supposed to try to do for others.

Going by the video I've got a good 2-5 minute delay sometimes.

westofyou
06-04-2009, 11:28 AM
Sorry, but the reason I ask is.. most of the time it really seems like you' re a parrot repeating every observation Marty or Brantley make during the game.


Jeff Brantley is worth forgetting, not repeating.

_Sir_Charles_
06-04-2009, 11:55 AM
Jeff Brantley is worth forgetting, not repeating.

Agreed. I'd personally like to see Jim Kelch get more time on the air. Of all the secondary guys, I think he does the best job. Although Merker was pretty good last night I thought. You can tell he's not quite comfortable yet, but his insights are usually pretty interesting.

Speaking of players' insights, anybody else catch Harold Reynolds on the MLB network weds night? He told a story about facing Nolan Ryan that just cracked me up. Reynolds broke up a no-hitter of Ryans (ended up a 1 hitter) and the next day before the game started, Ryan tells Harold "You better not bunt" before the first pitch. Harold was shocked and asking the catcher "was he talking to me?!?". Harold says he stepped in the box and crowded the plate a bit and Ryan immediately flipped him on his backside. Reynolds said he was scared out of his mind. He ended up drawing a walk and eventually scoring. The next day during warmups...Ryan jogged by Reynolds and said "way to be a competetor kid". I love MLB network because of stuff like that.

nate
06-04-2009, 12:28 PM
Agreed. I'd personally like to see Jim Kelch get more time on the air. Of all the secondary guys, I think he does the best job. Although Merker was pretty good last night I thought. You can tell he's not quite comfortable yet, but his insights are usually pretty interesting.

Speaking of players' insights, anybody else catch Harold Reynolds on the MLB network weds night? He told a story about facing Nolan Ryan that just cracked me up. Reynolds broke up a no-hitter of Ryans (ended up a 1 hitter) and the next day before the game started, Ryan tells Harold "You better not bunt" before the first pitch. Harold was shocked and asking the catcher "was he talking to me?!?". Harold says he stepped in the box and crowded the plate a bit and Ryan immediately flipped him on his backside. Reynolds said he was scared out of his mind. He ended up drawing a walk and eventually scoring. The next day during warmups...Ryan jogged by Reynolds and said "way to be a competetor kid". I love MLB network because of stuff like that.

Nice story!

kaldaniels
06-04-2009, 02:06 PM
Agreed. I'd personally like to see Jim Kelch get more time on the air. Of all the secondary guys, I think he does the best job. Although Merker was pretty good last night I thought. You can tell he's not quite comfortable yet, but his insights are usually pretty interesting.

Speaking of players' insights, anybody else catch Harold Reynolds on the MLB network weds night? He told a story about facing Nolan Ryan that just cracked me up. Reynolds broke up a no-hitter of Ryans (ended up a 1 hitter) and the next day before the game started, Ryan tells Harold "You better not bunt" before the first pitch. Harold was shocked and asking the catcher "was he talking to me?!?". Harold says he stepped in the box and crowded the plate a bit and Ryan immediately flipped him on his backside. Reynolds said he was scared out of his mind. He ended up drawing a walk and eventually scoring. The next day during warmups...Ryan jogged by Reynolds and said "way to be a competetor kid". I love MLB network because of stuff like that.

I think I get the story but am confused. Reynolds broke up a no-hitter of Ryans and the next day Ryan was pitching again? Did he break up the no-hitter with a bunt? Sorry I'm a bit slow.

_Sir_Charles_
06-04-2009, 02:44 PM
Oh, sorry. I think it was the next time they faced each other. My bad. The next day thing was when he approached him and said "way to be a competetor".