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redsfan4445
06-04-2009, 02:41 PM
per mlb traderumors and Olneys ESPN Insider (i dont have access)

"The Reds are looking for a third baseman. "

Whom start nameing names.. who is availble? Cantu?

CTA513
06-04-2009, 02:41 PM
per mlb trade roumurs and Olneys ESPN Insider (i dont have access)

"The Reds are looking for a third baseman. "

Whom start nameing names.. who is availble? Cantu?

I hope not

Rojo
06-04-2009, 02:46 PM
per mlb traderumors and Olneys ESPN Insider (i dont have access)

"The Reds are looking for a third baseman. "

Whom start nameing names.. who is availble? Cantu?

If defense is the problem, then Cantu isn't the answer.

_Sir_Charles_
06-04-2009, 02:47 PM
Is Brooks Robinson still available? What about that Schmidt guy? No? Okay, let's stick with what we've got for now then. We've got PLENTY of 3rd base prospects IMO.

lollipopcurve
06-04-2009, 02:47 PM
Derosa? Tejada? Either one is fine by me.

wheels
06-04-2009, 02:48 PM
If its Cantu they're thinking about......... Well that nonsense needs to cease and desist.

Who is actually available?

Is Buster just being a lazy gotham - centric moron yet again?

Brutus
06-04-2009, 02:51 PM
I hope not

I'm not sure the defense aspect meshes with what this club wants. And at first glance, I like the looks of his numbers... they aren't bad at all:

.280
9 HR
41 RBI
.338/.476/.814
Created about 29 runs, with a .271 GPA and acquiring .505 bases per PA.

But I thought about it, and the Reds can get this same production out of Encarnacion, who's probably the same caliber defender.

So after thinking about it, he's probably not what the team needs right now. Problem is, I'm not sure there are really any quality third basemen available. Garrett Atkins is a major risk right now. Mark DeRosa is not much different than what's on the team.

RedEye
06-04-2009, 03:05 PM
What about Adrian Beltre?

Mario-Rijo
06-04-2009, 03:05 PM
What about Adrian Beltre?

Yes, Please.

RedEye
06-04-2009, 03:07 PM
I would take this to mean one of four things:

1) They are starting to get sick of Encarnacion's defense and want to simply replace him.
2) They are starting to get sick of Encarnacion's defense and are considering moving him to the OF.
3) Votto's situation is much more serious than anyone is saying, and they are planning to move Encarnacion temporarily to 1B while they await Alonso's arrival.
4) Buster Olney doesn't know what he's talking about.

I'm thinking it is probably some mixture of 1, 2 and 4. I'm really hoping it isn't 3.

Brutus
06-04-2009, 03:11 PM
What about Adrian Beltre?

He's having an awful season, although his road numbers are respectable (.303/.333/.422/.755). In total he has just four homers, though despite a .244 batting average he's driven in 25.

Last year was a little better: .266 BA 26 HR & 77 RBI. .327/.457/.784
Away from Seattle, though, his line went: .292/.349/.512/.861.

Overall, offensively he's not much better than an average hitter the past two seasons. However, with the idea that a change of scenery would do him good, and the fact he can glove it pretty well, I would not be vehemently opposed to that idea.

Mario-Rijo
06-04-2009, 03:14 PM
per mlb traderumors and Olneys ESPN Insider (i dont have access)

"The Reds are looking for a third baseman. "

Whom start nameing names.. who is availble? Cantu?

This is all it says.


The Reds have been looking for a third baseman.

Although under the rumors section it does have the rockies considering moving Atkins to AAA due to his struggles. They did like him at one point allegedly, now would be a good time to buy low if they were actually interested.

Atkins piece (http://www.denverpost.com/sports/ci_12516017)

Topcat
06-04-2009, 03:19 PM
Atkins in a buy low situation is best option.

Eric_the_Red
06-04-2009, 03:27 PM
Atkins in a buy low situation is best option.

Is Atkins that much different from EE?

Mario-Rijo
06-04-2009, 03:28 PM
I would hate to see the Cards or Cubs get him, I'd trade for him just to see them suffer.


DeRosa eyed by Cardinals
Mark DeRosa | Indians | Interested: Cardinals?

Cardinals general manager John Mozeliak is looking for a third baseman and gave every indication on Monday that he would welcome Mark DeRosa.

The Cardinals need a third baseman because Troy Glaus has shoulder ligament damage and is not expected to return until mid-July or early August.

Anthony Castrovince of MLB.com reported that Mozeliak is looking for a right-handed bat who can play third base until Glaus returns, at which point he would move somewhere elsewhere in the field.

The Indians have had DeRosa basically on the block for a couple weeks now, because his value to them isn't anywhere near what it was before Jhonny Peralta moved to third base.

In return for DeRosa, MLB.com says the Indians would want Major League-ready pitching. The Cardinals could potentially make right-handed starter Mitchell Boggs available in a trade, but what the Cards really have to offer is right-handed relievers, such as P.J. Walters or Chris Perez.


Indians may be closer to sell-off
The Indians may be closer to a mid-season sell off.

According to John Paul Morosi of FoxSports.com, the latest sign came Sunday, when they placed center fielder Grady Sizemore on the disabled list with inflammation in his left elbow.

Morosi writes that unless the Indians demonstrate quickly that they can win without Sizemore, it will be harder for general manager Mark Shapiro to justify keeping the team together.

If Shapiro determines that his team isn't going to make a run, then the Indians' prospective free agents will be available on the trade market: the much-talked-about Mark DeRosa, veteran utility infielder Jamey Carroll, and recently-effective starter Carl Pavano.

princeton
06-04-2009, 03:34 PM
then let's shift some of the minor league third basemen to left field.

flyer85
06-04-2009, 03:42 PM
ought to be looking for a SS

Falls City Beer
06-04-2009, 04:02 PM
ought to be looking for a SS

And another young starter, preferably with a history of exceptional control.

Mario-Rijo
06-04-2009, 04:04 PM
Is Atkins that much different from EE?

Neither is a gold glover if that's what you mean both are probably better suited to be 1st baggers or LF's perhaps down the road. Both have good sticks though and currently Atkins is only more unlucky in all of MLB than Jay Bruce.

Bruce has a .206 BABIP and Atkins a .201 BABIP. I think both of them are pressing trying to make up for Votto and Holliday respectively. Put 'em both together behind BP, Nix and Hernandez for a week or 2 and see what happens.

flyer85
06-04-2009, 04:05 PM
And another young starter, preferably with a history of exceptional control.
ought to be looking to deal harang/Arroyo to fill their needs. However, I highly doubt those kind of deals are even a consideration

A few years back the Phils made a series of July deals unloading vets and they got better, smart trading to do that for the Reds

jojo
06-04-2009, 04:06 PM
Beltre would be a good addition.

Jpup
06-04-2009, 04:17 PM
I'm all for improving the club, but Edwin could be just what the Reds need when he gets back. I would love for the Reds to go out and get another starter. Put Dickerson in centerfield on most days, Votto comes back along with Edwin, the Reds get a bonafide starter and I could see them winning the division. That is a lot to wish for, but I think that's the only way they can make the playoffs. I'm satisfied with Nix in left for the time being.

remdog
06-04-2009, 04:24 PM
Beltre would be a good addition.

Adrian Beltre is a 30 year old, somewhat competent 3rd baseman that parlayed one exceptional year with the Dodgers into a big contract. It's basically taken him two years to reproduce the one good year that he had in '04 with the Dodgers. He's 30 years old and he's making $13.4M this year. His defense has declined and his current numbers are .244/.275/.355/.630.

Still think he would be a good addition?

Rem

osuceltic
06-04-2009, 04:34 PM
DeRosa is the obvious guy. He'd be a great addtion. Solid defender, professional hitter, hits lefties well, doesn't get embarrassed by righties, wouldn't cost much to acquire (Josh Roenicke?).

Then you see what the market is for some selection/combination of Encarnacion, Homer, Maloney, Alonso, etc., to fill other needs (LF/SS/SP).

Falls City Beer
06-04-2009, 04:36 PM
Adrian Beltre is a 30 year old, somewhat competent 3rd baseman that parlayed one exceptional year with the Dodgers into a big contract. It's basically taken him two years to reproduce the one good year that he had in '04 with the Dodgers. He's 30 years old and he's making $13.4M this year. His defense has declined and his current numbers are .244/.275/.355/.630.

Still think he would be a good addition?

Rem

I agree. He's on the wrong side of thirty and still expensive. I'd take him as a rental for this year, but he isn't the long-term answer.

Falls City Beer
06-04-2009, 04:38 PM
ought to be looking to deal harang/Arroyo to fill their needs. However, I highly doubt those kind of deals are even a consideration

A few years back the Phils made a series of July deals unloading vets and they got better, smart trading to do that for the Reds


I agree. I think Walt would love to hand off Arroyo's albatross contract, but I think there'd be some real ground to be made up with a trade of Harang to a contender. Maybe to Cleveland, even.

jojo
06-04-2009, 04:44 PM
Adrian Beltre is a 30 year old, somewhat competent 3rd baseman that parlayed one exceptional year with the Dodgers into a big contract. It's basically taken him two years to reproduce the one good year that he had in '04 with the Dodgers. He's 30 years old and he's making $13.4M this year. His defense has declined and his current numbers are .244/.275/.355/.630.

Still think he would be a good addition?

Rem

He'd be an excellent addition.

Not only isn't his defense in decline, he's having another exceptional year with the leather and he remains one of the best defensive third baseman in the majors (based upon the eyes and defensive metrics-it's a perfect marriage concerning Beltre).

Concerning his numbers this season, I'm more interested in his true skill level. Unless there is a reason to think his true skill level has dramatically nose-dived (which there is not) making his early season an accurate depiction, big deal-he's started slow. It's his true skill level that informs his usefulness going forward and his offensive production has been suppressed by the Puget Sound:


Beltre is at least a 20 run upgrade over EE defensively. In GABP without the righty-suppressing presence of Safeco, I could see Beltre easily being 3 wins better than EE at third.

Beltre's Road splits:
'06 road: .283/.343/.462 OPS: .805 (.027 >than home)
'07 road: .288/.320/.538 OPS: .858 (.113 >than home)
'08 road: .292/.349/.512 OPS: .862 (.159 > than home)

On the other hand, EE, has been .081 worth of OPS better in GABP than on the road. Basically he's been something akin a middling offensive third baseman outside of GABP. Beltre should also be expected to benefit by hitting in GABP-and he can hit on the road too.

Beltre has been far from a bust for the Ms. He's played gold glove defense while playing in probably the worst possible environment for a hitter like him.

He's never going to be an on base monster. However, he is a much better offensive player than many give him credit for being.... He's a legit above average player.


Here are a few posts that have answered the question directly:

http://www.redszone.com/forums/showpost.php?p=1740403&postcount=32

http://www.redszone.com/forums/showpost.php?p=1752520&postcount=45

Here's a summary of Beltre's Home/Road splits over the last three years:


BA OBP SLG OPS BAbip ISO k% BB% XBH% wOBA
Home 0.252 0.311 0.432 0.743 0.269 0.180 16.6 7.5 36.4 0.314
Away 0.287 0.338 0.503 0.840 0.310 0.216 15.7 6.5 43.3 0.348
Beltre isn't grossly overpaid nor is his contract a bad one.

TheNext44
06-04-2009, 04:54 PM
Seattle Times reported on May 10th:


Hitting coach Alan Cockrell noticed a flaw in Beltre's swing and suggested a change. Beltre agreed with the logic and said it worked for him. Apparently so; he had three hits Saturday, including an RBI double and his first home run of the season.

Since then he has posted a .770 OPS. Not great, but most of those games were in Seattle.

If he can OPS .750 and provide the defense he has so far, he would be a solid improvement over EE. I have a feeling in GAPB, he would OPS over .800.

One caveat, his OBP is really low this year, he simply is not taking walks. Not sure why.

If he can be had cheap, a couple of top 20 prospects, which is likely, he's be a great addition.

I still like DeRosa better, but he would cost more in terms of prospects. Everyone seems to want him these days.

SMcGavin
06-04-2009, 06:32 PM
And another young starter, preferably with a history of exceptional control.

You have said quite frequently that you want pitchers with great control and don't care about strikeouts that much. Well, the guy supposedly coming up to pitch on Saturday has a 1.2 BB/9 this season. That pretty much defines exceptional control. So why would the Reds go outside of the organization for that? Unless you are talking about someone with really good stuff and exceptional control... but I don't think Zach Greinke is available.

This report surprises me, I'll believe the Reds are looking for a 3B when I see it. Edwin just got a two year deal in the offseason, I would be pretty suprised if he gets replaced.

remdog
06-04-2009, 06:32 PM
He'd be an excellent addition.

Not only isn't his defense in decline, he's having another exceptional year with the leather and he remains one of the best defensive third baseman in the majors (based upon the eyes and defensive metrics-it's a perfect marriage concerning Beltre).

I see a lot of the West Coast teams, what with the Angels being in that time-zone and that division. I suggest that you check your health care plan and see if optometry is covered by it.

And while you're at it check where the decimal point is in the salary: it's $13.4M not $1.34M. At his price he's not a good addition by any stretch of the imagination.

Rem

Falls City Beer
06-04-2009, 07:04 PM
You have said quite frequently that you want pitchers with great control and don't care about strikeouts that much. Well, the guy supposedly coming up to pitch on Saturday has a 1.2 BB/9 this season. That pretty much defines exceptional control. So why would the Reds go outside of the organization for that? Unless you are talking about someone with really good stuff and exceptional control... but I don't think Zach Greinke is available.

Maloney will get his shot, apparently. Let's hope his stuff is somewhere between Greinke's and someone's who is really awful.

Razor Shines
06-04-2009, 07:08 PM
I see a lot of the West Coast teams, what with the Angels being in that time-zone and that division. I suggest that you check your health care plan and see if optometry is covered by it.

And while you're at it check where the decimal point is in the salary: it's $13.4M not $1.34M. At his price he's not a good addition by any stretch of the imagination.

Rem

I completely agree, but I get the feeling that jojo has had this argument a couple times before, probably on another board.

wheels
06-04-2009, 07:10 PM
You have said quite frequently that you want pitchers with great control and don't care about strikeouts that much. Well, the guy supposedly coming up to pitch on Saturday has a 1.2 BB/9 this season. That pretty much defines exceptional control. So why would the Reds go outside of the organization for that? Unless you are talking about someone with really good stuff and exceptional control... but I don't think Zach Greinke is available.

This report surprises me, I'll believe the Reds are looking for a 3B when I see it. Edwin just got a two year deal in the offseason, I would be pretty suprised if he gets replaced.

Yup.

Maloney trusts his stuff. That's huge for a rookie starter.

Who knows if he'll get tagged because of it, but he's not going to get himself into trouble with walks.

He's actually just the type of guy FCB would love.

Thing is, it's his first and maybe only crack until september call ups so he could press.

His personality doesn't seem to indicate that, though. Something tells me he will be as cool as the other side of the pillow out there, but maybe that's just a personal bias. I've trained right next to him at my gym, and let me tell you folks, he's really someone to pull for.

As far as 3B is concerned, good ones are a tough get. I'd rather they lump it with EE and find a bat for the OF (really not sold on Nix/Gomes as the ultimate answer).

RedsManRick
06-04-2009, 07:13 PM
Beltre would be a great addition. Heck, offer EE for him straight up and see if Seattle bites.

Beltre's defense is substantially better than EE's, literally wins worth, even if it has slipped a little. As for the offensive comparison -- with full understanding that EE has not reached his peak and Beltre has... here's the last three years for them both, home and away. It's pretty interesting if you ask me. EE walks a lot more in GABP than he does on the road. Beltre is basically the same hitter in both places except for the fact that doubles die for him in Safeco. The away numbers are much more "fair", less influenced by park factor, than the home figures. EE comes out ahead slightly in the aggregate, but if you focus on the away figures, it's not even close.



[/B]Player Split G PA AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI SB CS BB SO BA OBP SLG OPS[/B]
Beltre Home 224 943 862 117 217 40 2 37 112 20 3 71 157 .252 .311 .432 .742
EE Home 205 812 700 114 196 44 1 32 120 5 4 86 129 .280 .373 .483 .856

Beltre Away 224 989 909 132 261 69 5 39 153 13 6 64 155 .287 .338 .502 .840
EE Away 197 789 714 87 188 43 2 25 96 10 0 55 137 .263 .329 .434 .763

wheels
06-04-2009, 07:14 PM
Beltre would be a great addition. Heck, offer EE for him straight up and see if Seattle bites.

If that were the case, I'd be inclined to bite. What about next year would be my main concern, though.

BuckeyeRedleg
06-04-2009, 07:17 PM
If the Reds are looking for a thirdbaseman, then why the heck did they sign EE for two years?

nate
06-04-2009, 07:25 PM
Maloney will get his shot, apparently. Let's hope his stuff is somewhere between Greinke's and someone's who is really awful.

Dude, let's not set such expectations!

:cool:

wheels
06-04-2009, 07:26 PM
If the Reds are looking for a thirdbaseman, then why the heck did they sign EE for two years?

I think they've soured on him.

I'm not so sure about that just yet. I'd like to see what he can do the rest of the way.

GAC
06-04-2009, 07:45 PM
If the Reds are looking for a thirdbaseman, then why the heck did they sign EE for two years?

Very reasonably priced and tradable contract.

remdog
06-04-2009, 07:48 PM
For the numbers that Beltre puts up it would be insane for anyone to pay him $13.4M.

For that kind of money you should be getting a #1 starter or a premier SS.

Funny how many people watch numbers but ignore the number that is the price tag for that little trinket of pyrite.

Rem

RedsManRick
06-04-2009, 07:58 PM
For the numbers that Beltre puts up it would be insane for anyone to pay him $13.4M.

For that kind of money you should be getting a #1 starter or a premier SS.

Funny how many people watch numbers but ignore the number that is the price tag for that little trinket of pyrite.

Rem

Based on his combined offensive and defensive production and the price of that production on the free agent market, Fangraphs shows him worth $48.1M over the last 3 years -- that doesn't include his crazy walk year in LA. You can certainly make the argument that the Reds can't afford market prices if you want to, but Beltre is not overpaid.

I'll be the first to admit defensive stats have a ways to go, but we've seen over the last few years the value of defense -- just ask Philly, Tampa Bay, and the 2009 Reds.

jojo
06-04-2009, 08:04 PM
I completely agree, but I get the feeling that jojo has had this argument a couple times before, probably on another board.

Beltre's production as an M has been worth $60.3M to date based upon WAR. He's been paid, about $50M to this point (prorating his '09 thus far).

I reject the notion that paying a player less than his production is worth on the open market qualifies as a bad contract when that player has had above average value (he's averaged 3.5 WAR a season as a Mariner).

Falls City Beer
06-04-2009, 08:06 PM
I don't disagree that Beltre's been a good value, but unless the Reds can get him for a lot less than what he's currently making, I don't believe acquiring a 30 year old player for multiple seasons is a good plan of attack for this franchise.

As I said, I wouldn't be opposed to getting him for this season, but I sincerely doubt the Reds are going to be contending much longer, making the expenditure generally a big waste, both in money and prospects.

jojo
06-04-2009, 08:09 PM
For the numbers that Beltre puts up it would be insane for anyone to pay him $13.4M.

For that kind of money you should be getting a #1 starter or a premier SS.

Funny how many people watch numbers but ignore the number that is the price tag for that little trinket of pyrite.

Rem

Your argument would make perfect sense if it were not predicated on the flawed view of Beltre's production as an M. As it is, your argument has to ignore both defensive metrics and the eyes of coaches and scouts regarding his defensive ability and it ignores randomness and environment relative to his offensive ability.

I'm sorry, but I disagree with your position completely and it's because of the numbers and the price tag associated with them.

Rojo
06-04-2009, 08:19 PM
Very reasonably priced and tradable contract.


I honestly don't know how tradable he is. I'm guessing a lot of GMs are not going to look at him as a third-base solution.

remdog
06-04-2009, 08:25 PM
Except for one year in LA (2004 where the numbers were off the board and suggest that Adrian was doing something other than just lifting weights), Beltre has managed to OPS in the .800's just twice. Hmmm, same as EE has but in less than half the time. AB's career OPS: .780. EE's career OPS: .789.

As far as defense goes, I appreciate that you acknowledge that defensive numbers are, ummm, let's say unrefined as yet. But defense at 3rd base is different from most positions. 'D' at third is not about range; 'D' at third is about reflexes, hands and feet. Very seldom does a 3rd baseman make a critical play to his left that includes range. If the ball gets through to the 3rd baseman's left it's going to be a single and, unless it drives in a run, it's 'managable'. The significant play for a 3rd baseman is to his right and that's usually a reflex and timing type of thing. If that ball gets by then the pitcher is looking at someone in scoring position usually.

It's my opinion that EE has the reflexes and hands to play third. It's where his feet come into play that is his problem and, if you'll notice, it's usually on plays where he has plenty of time.

The difference between the two is not worth paying $13.4M to one player when you can get almost identical production out of the other for $2.425M.

JMO, of course. :)

Rem

schroomytunes
06-04-2009, 08:27 PM
We are not wanting to give up alot to obtain a guy when we have EE signed to a 2 year contract with virtually nothing ready in the minors. IMHO we are looking at these 3 guys at 3rd base if we are looking at all:

1)Mark DeRosa- RH bat plays 3rd/1st/OF would be a solid bat and super sub but would probably cost Roenicke and Ramirez.

2)Garrett Atkins-RH bat having terrible year in COL, is close to being demoted to AAA, had decent seasons before 2009, he would cost Roenicke and Maloney.

3)Melvin Mora-RH bat is 36yrs old with an 8million contract, still has solid offensive #'s but not much pop, could be a nice insurance guy to have for this year at 3rd, but I would only trade if we send Ramirez and Lincoln to them, Lincoln's departure helps offset the money a little.

this is my order of attack...leaving guys like Bailey, Stubbs,Frazier alone for bigger fish say Matt Holiday or Roy Oswalt!!!!

remdog
06-04-2009, 08:36 PM
I'm sorry, but I disagree with your position completely and it's because of the numbers and the price tag associated with them.

So, are you saying that you'd like to pay $13.4M for a third baseman? Especially since you can get identical or even better production from the guy you've got for $2.425M? And you don't have to get older, you don't have to trade some bodies to get the high priced spread and you still keep that trading chip in case you need it later? That seems to be your stance.

If that's the way you see it well, just to be honest here, I'm not sorry to say that you're, well, as they say, full of hot air. Basically, your compass is out of calibration.

Rem

jojo
06-04-2009, 08:36 PM
Except for one year in LA (2004 where the numbers were off the board and suggest that Adrian was doing something other than just lifting weights), Beltre has managed to OPS in the .800's just twice. Hmmm, same as EE has but in less than half the time. AB's career OPS: .780. EE's career OPS: .789.

As far as defense goes, I appreciate that you acknowledge that defensive numbers are, ummm, let's say unrefined as yet. But defense at 3rd base is different from most positions. 'D' at third is not about range; 'D' at third is about reflexes, hands and feet. Very seldom does a 3rd baseman make a critical play to his left that includes range. If the ball gets through to the 3rd baseman's left it's going to be a single and, unless it drives in a run, it's 'managable'. The significant play for a 3rd baseman is to his right and that's usually a reflex and timing type of thing. If that ball gets by then the pitcher is looking at someone in scoring position usually.

It's my opinion that EE has the reflexes and hands to play third. It's where his feet come into play that is his problem and, if you'll notice, it's usually on plays where he has plenty of time.

The difference between the two is not worth paying $13.4M to one player when you can get almost identical production out of the other for $2.425M.

JMO, of course. :)

Rem

The argument is that Beltre in GABP is a superior player to EE in GABP.


Beltre is at least a 20 run upgrade over EE defensively. In GABP without the righty-suppressing presence of Safeco, I could see Beltre easily being 3 wins better than EE at third.

Beltre's Road splits:
'06 road: .283/.343/.462 OPS: .805 (.027 >than home)
'07 road: .288/.320/.538 OPS: .858 (.113 >than home)
'08 road: .292/.349/.512 OPS: .862 (.159 > than home)

On the other hand, EE, has been .081 worth of OPS better in GABP than on the road. Basically he's been something akin a middling offensive third baseman outside of GABP. Beltre should also be expected to benefit by hitting in GABP-and he can hit on the road too.

Beltre has been far from a bust for the Ms. He's played gold glove defense while playing in probably the worst possible environment for a hitter like him.

He's never going to be an on base monster. However, he is a much better offensive player than many give him credit for being.... He's a legit above average player.

If EE started as an M, he'd likely have been severely emasculated given the vast majority of his homers are pulled.

jojo
06-04-2009, 08:39 PM
So, are you saying that you'd like to pay $13.4M for a third baseman? Especially since you can get identical or even better production from the guy you've got for $2.425M? And you don't have to get older, you don't have to trade some bodies to get the high priced spread and you still keep that trading chip in case you need it later? That seems to be your stance.

If that's the way you see it well, just to be honest here, I'm not sorry to say that you're, well, as they say, full of hot air. Basically, your compass is out of calibration.

Rem

I'd be fine with paying a third baseman $13.4 million for 3.5 WAR a year.

remdog
06-04-2009, 08:39 PM
If Frazier has a solid second half this year I see him as getting a chance to either make EE expendable or, at least, make the team as a backup and moving to 3rd if EE falters or is traded.

JMO, of course.

Rem

remdog
06-04-2009, 08:40 PM
I'd be fine with paying a third baseman $13.4 million for 3.5 WAR a year.


Take your GPS into the dealer. It's broken.

Rem

jojo
06-04-2009, 08:43 PM
Take your GPS into the dealer. It's broken.

Rem

I've articulated the case for why it's calibrated the way it is and I'll just say I'm very happy with it's accuracy and perhaps it's best if we go our separate directions on this issue at this point.

remdog
06-04-2009, 08:49 PM
I've articulated the case for why it's calibrated the way it is and I'll just say I'm very happy with it's accuracy and perhaps it's best if we go our separate directions on this issue at this point.

And, I'll be very happy to accknowledge that I'm sure that my case is well laid out and accurate as well.

However, I'd be very happy to buy you a beer and discuss it again if we are ever in the same city at the same time. A tip of the cap and a good night to you Sir.

Rem

fearofpopvol1
06-04-2009, 11:03 PM
So if the Indians want major league pitching...what about DeRosa for Maloney?

*BaseClogger*
06-04-2009, 11:34 PM
So if the Indians want major league pitching...what about DeRosa for Maloney?

We could sell them on the fact he went to Huron High School! :thumbup:

HokieRed
06-05-2009, 12:30 AM
The enthusiasm for DeRosa baffles me. His current OPS is .765, Hairston's is .780. No way I'd trade Matt Maloney for DeRosa. If he can somehow take over a spot in the rotation, he may free the FO up to trade one other of the pitchers later, bringing more and freeing up considerable salary. IMO, that's very important to keep in mind when thinking about moving Maloney.

SMcGavin
06-05-2009, 02:23 AM
Maloney will get his shot, apparently. Let's hope his stuff is somewhere between Greinke's and someone's who is really awful.

I don't think there's much doubt about that. It's possible Maloney will suck, but he's exactly the type of guy you have been asking for.

Ron Madden
06-05-2009, 03:44 AM
Except for one year in LA (2004 where the numbers were off the board and suggest that Adrian was doing something other than just lifting weights), Beltre has managed to OPS in the .800's just twice. Hmmm, same as EE has but in less than half the time. AB's career OPS: .780. EE's career OPS: .789.

As far as defense goes, I appreciate that you acknowledge that defensive numbers are, ummm, let's say unrefined as yet. But defense at 3rd base is different from most positions. 'D' at third is not about range; 'D' at third is about reflexes, hands and feet. Very seldom does a 3rd baseman make a critical play to his left that includes range. If the ball gets through to the 3rd baseman's left it's going to be a single and, unless it drives in a run, it's 'managable'. The significant play for a 3rd baseman is to his right and that's usually a reflex and timing type of thing. If that ball gets by then the pitcher is looking at someone in scoring position usually.

It's my opinion that EE has the reflexes and hands to play third. It's where his feet come into play that is his problem and, if you'll notice, it's usually on plays where he has plenty of time.

The difference between the two is not worth paying $13.4M to one player when you can get almost identical production out of the other for $2.425M.

JMO, of course. :)

Rem

:clap::clap::clap:

Very well said and IMHO the Gods Honest Truth.

:thumbup:

Mario-Rijo
06-05-2009, 04:30 AM
Except for one year in LA (2004 where the numbers were off the board and suggest that Adrian was doing something other than just lifting weights), Beltre has managed to OPS in the .800's just twice. Hmmm, same as EE has but in less than half the time. AB's career OPS: .780. EE's career OPS: .789.

As far as defense goes, I appreciate that you acknowledge that defensive numbers are, ummm, let's say unrefined as yet. But defense at 3rd base is different from most positions. 'D' at third is not about range; 'D' at third is about reflexes, hands and feet. Very seldom does a 3rd baseman make a critical play to his left that includes range. If the ball gets through to the 3rd baseman's left it's going to be a single and, unless it drives in a run, it's 'managable'. The significant play for a 3rd baseman is to his right and that's usually a reflex and timing type of thing. If that ball gets by then the pitcher is looking at someone in scoring position usually.

It's my opinion that EE has the reflexes and hands to play third. It's where his feet come into play that is his problem and, if you'll notice, it's usually on plays where he has plenty of time.

The difference between the two is not worth paying $13.4M to one player when you can get almost identical production out of the other for $2.425M.

JMO, of course. :)

Rem

You make a great point at the end, fair enough the money is a big deal. But IMO only to Castellini, I could care less how much he spends for the rest of this season unless it prohibits us elsewhere. That is where Bob has to make the decision to up the ante.

However where I disagree with you is in the production part of it. Beltre is a far better (far better) player away from his home parks of LA and Seattle. Almost 40 points better in Avg., 30 Pts. Better in OBP% and nearly 80 points better in slugging % and over a 100 points better in overall OPS. He's an .831 OPS bat away from those 2 parks alone, if we sat down and took away the other mammoth parks he's played alot in like Oakland, and the NL west we'd probably see an even better offensive player. Now take that info and stick him in one of the smaller parks and divisions in baseball and I think we might be talking about a guy who can get back close to those LA #'s he had. I think he's probably close to a .900 OPS bat as a Red. Now you might have me on the defensive portion of the production but he can't be any worse overall than EE and Edwin isn't close to that kind of bat. He may get there eventually but that's a big if IMO. And right now Beltre profiles to be the better bat both inside and outside of GABP than Edwin.

IMO Edwin isn't a future piece to the puzzle anymore, I've seen enough of him. Beltre is a guy who can help us now and a guy that we can actually offer arbitration to and feel pretty safe that he won't accept, 3rd baggers with his skills get contracts. And if he doesn't we can feel good giving Frazier another season of seasoning in '10 and then not re-offer abrtiration again in '11 if we see fit. I really don't see any downside to offering Edwin for Adrian Beltre, none. In fact I'd look for a way to send EE to Seattle for him and get Seattle to pay some of Beltre's salary but fall short of sending any critical prospects to boot.

GAC
06-05-2009, 05:59 AM
Based on his combined offensive and defensive production and the price of that production on the free agent market, Fangraphs shows him worth $48.1M over the last 3 years

What formula does Fangraph utilize to determine a player's monetary worth? That's interesting. And just how reliable is it?


You can certainly make the argument that the Reds can't afford market prices if you want to, but Beltre is not overpaid.

Agree. It's not an issue of worth, but of affordability.

We spend 33M, out of a 74M payroll, on three pitchers (Cordero, Harang, Arroyo). Are they worth it? Look at how much improved out pitching overall is this year. They are primarily the reason we are in the hunt this year. Now is the amount of money we're paying them "hindering" us in other areas? Good question. I'd say logically yes. You only have so much to spend. And this organization, as well as numerous others, are forced into a "rob Peter to pay Paul" mentality. We use to look for the "Harnischs" in pitching, while generously paying for position players.

I don't know if it was an intentional approach by this FO, but it appears they have sacrificed offense (a lot IMO) for pitching/defense. Look at out situation in LF right now. IMO, we obviously traded away Dunn for financial reasons and regardless of what one thinks of Dickerson/Nix/Gomes, IMO, we went on the cheap in a "crap shoot" approach. I have no problem with the cheap approach if a young player is at the ready (i.e. Bruce, Votto), or even has acquired an alternative solution in the market. But that is not what the Reds seem to do in various cases.

That is why we have the "holes" that we do on this team. Or else have a guy like JHJ who can be moved around the horn all the time. ;)

Hooligan
06-05-2009, 07:08 AM
How about getting Marte (AAA) from the Tribe. Once a hot prospect that is now rebuilding his way back into being a starting major league third baseman. Wouldn't cost much from a trade standpoint, young, inexpensive, would be here for years.

fearofpopvol1
06-05-2009, 10:43 AM
The enthusiasm for DeRosa baffles me. His current OPS is .765, Hairston's is .780.

Current, being key.

Career:

DeRosa - .769
Hairston - .704

65 points is notable.

RedLegSuperStar
06-05-2009, 11:31 AM
Texas is dangling Hank Blahlock in exchange for a reliever.

- MLBTradeRumors.com

Eric_the_Red
06-05-2009, 12:23 PM
Texas is dangling Hank Blahlock in exchange for a reliever.

- MLBTradeRumors.com


"Mr. Lincoln, welcome to Texas."

Bumstead
06-05-2009, 12:27 PM
lol...my guess is: not that reliever! :D

Brutus
06-05-2009, 01:44 PM
I went through some of the possible 3B options that have been mentioned as potentially available, and compared their 3-year averages (2006-2008) with one another. I used only road splits to get a more adjusted comparison.

Here is what I came up with:



AVG OBP SLG OPS BB% K% HR% GPA wOBA PA/RC
Edwin Encarnacion 0.263 0.328 0.434 0.762 7.15% 17.82% 3.25% 0.256 0.335 7.7
Adrian Beltre 0.287 0.338 0.503 0.841 6.58% 15.93% 4.01% 0.278 0.362 6.5
Kevin Kouzmanoff 0.282 0.330 0.488 0.818 5.11% 17.80% 4.33% 0.271 0.353 7.0
Mark DeRosa 0.278 0.350 0.446 0.796 9.57% 17.38% 2.72% 0.269 0.351 7.0
Miguel Tejada 0.283 0.338 0.408 0.746 6.46% 12.17% 1.90% 0.254 0.332 8.0
Hank Blalock 0.254 0.305 0.414 0.719 7.02% 16.27% 2.91% 0.241 0.315 8.2
Jorge Cantu 0.231 0.282 0.379 0.661 6.17% 17.25% 3.01% 0.222 0.293 9.6



Again, this is based on AWAY splits for a 3-year period dating 2006-2008.

After seeing this, throwing in defense, it looks like Beltre is the best option by far. Kouzmanoff is actually an intriguing option if he is available. However, Beltre is my choice.

Will M
06-05-2009, 01:52 PM
I went through some of the possible 3B options that have been mentioned as potentially available, and compared their 3-year averages (2006-2008) with one another. I used only road splits to get a more adjusted comparison.

Here is what I came up with:


Player ...............Ave/OBP/SLG/OPS... GPA...wOBA...PA/RC...BB%...K%
Edwin Encarnacion .263/.328/.434/.762 .256 .335 ... 7.7 ... 7.15% ... 17.82%
Adrian Beltre .........287/.338/.503/.841 .278 .362 ... 6.5 ... 6.56% ... 15.93%
Kevin Kouzmanoff....282/.330/.488/.818 .271 .353 ... 7.0 ... 5.11% ... 17.80%
Mark DeRosa..........278/.350/.446/.796 .269 .351 ... 7.0 ... 9.57% ... 17.38%
Miguel Tejada.........283/.338/.408/.746 .254 .332 ... 8.0 ... 6.46% ... 12.17%
Hank Blalock...........254/.305/.414/.719 .241 .315 ... 8.2 ... 7.02% ... 16.27%
Jorge Cantu............231/.282/.379/.661 .222 .293 .. 9.6 ... 6.17% ... 17.25%


And, though I did not include it, Beltre & Kouzmanoff had the highest HR% of these options in that time period as well. Again, this is based on AWAY splits for a 3-year period dating 2006-2008.

After seeing this, throwing in defense, it looks like Beltre is the best option by far. Kouzmanoff is actually an intriguing option if he is available. However, Beltre is my choice.

Brutus: back during the offseason lots of ORG members thought Beltre was a good target for the Reds. Unfortunately Walt doesn't listen to us.

Ron Madden
06-06-2009, 02:43 AM
Good Bye Redszone ORG. We have morphed into Reds.com.

:(

Mario-Rijo
06-06-2009, 02:52 AM
Good Bye Redszone ORG. We have morphed into Reds.com.

:(

Huh? What did I miss? :confused:

Holy crap I just realized I am at 4,999 posts, sorry but I didn't want to waste my 5,000th post on mentioning this.

Ron Madden
06-06-2009, 04:20 AM
Huh? What did I miss? :confused:

Holy crap I just realized I am at 4,999 posts, sorry but I didn't want to waste my 5,000th post on mentioning this.


I'm sorry you wasted your 5,000th post with bullcrap. (That's my point.)

I used to come here for information about the Reds and to learn more about the game I love because RedsZone used to be the most informative Reds site on the Internet.

There was a time when we could acually learn something from the discussions here.

I'm afraid that's just not the case anymore. :(

LoganBuck
06-06-2009, 07:12 AM
I'm sorry you wasted your 5,000th post with bullcrap. (That's my point.)

I used to come here for information about the Reds and to learn more about the game I love because RedsZone used to be the most informative Reds site on the Internet.

There was a time when we could acually learn something from the discussions here.

I'm afraid that's just not the case anymore. :(

I think what you are seeing is the descent into frustration again. Every year about this time, people throw out whatever ideas they can about how to fix the situation. Take a look around at other Reds forums, they have a negative tone as well.

We can all see it, the Reds just aren't good enough right now, especially without Votto, Volquez, and EdE. Take two impact players, and a solid everyday player away from any team, for months at a time, and things get pretty scary. They have to tread water, at least until next Sunday, when they hopefully, maybe, get all of them back. No amount of in depth statistical analysis, trade speculation, or whimsical prose will change that. Walt can't be a buyer, or seller, until he knows what they have.

jojo
06-06-2009, 08:52 AM
I'm sorry you wasted your 5,000th post with bullcrap. (That's my point.)

I used to come here for information about the Reds and to learn more about the game I love because RedsZone used to be the most informative Reds site on the Internet.

There was a time when we could acually learn something from the discussions here.

I'm afraid that's just not the case anymore. :(

I still don't get the reds.com reference.

Tony Cloninger
06-06-2009, 09:18 AM
I am more partial to Fastball.com....I had my Vada Pinson moniker then.

What we need is a shot of Chris Stynes/Jon Nunally type production from someone....anyone.