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Will M
06-07-2009, 10:21 PM
Walt Jocketty needs to make some move(s) to shore up the offense or kiss the 2009 season good bye. The Reds are pitching very well & losing way too many low scoring games. They are painfull to watch at times.
The team ERA+ is 113 (!) but the team OPS+ is 89.

Hernandez & Hanigan make a fine catching duo but Ramon at 1B has to be one of the weakest 1B bats in baseball.

Gonzo is hitting .211 at SS.

We don't know when EE & Votto will return.

Walt doesn't have to pull some mega deal but IMO he needs to do something to boost the team's offense. Buy low on Garret Atkins? DeRosa?? Call up Alonso from AA???

I really really hate the idea of trying to 'hang in there' until EE & Votto return.
The Reds season could be long over by the time they do.

Edskin
06-07-2009, 10:28 PM
I really really hate the idea of trying to 'hang in there' until EE & Votto return.
The Reds season could be long over by the time they do.

We might just need to accept that reality. Not much (realistically) Walt can do right now. A DeRosa or Atkins is not going to make a huge difference at this point.

Bottom line: We were a limited offensive team when healthy, and right now, our best hitter is not playing and another guy who adds pop to the line-up is out as well. The team was not built to be able to afford those losses to the roster--you can blame Walt for that, but I see a plan unfolding here and we just so happen to be at an "in between" stage.

The pitching has been better than advertised and as a fan, it is frustrating as heck to see us lose so many games we seemingly "deserve" to win, especially after begging for this type of production from the pitching staff for years.

But there is no room or need for Walt to panic right now and make a move for the sake of making a move. The ONLY way this team is going to be in contention come September is if Votto and EE return and play effectively. All of the Garrett Atkins in the world can't save us otherwise.

Now, IF those guys return then maybe we can round out the line-up with a DeRosa type-- but if our big boppers aren't there, it's a moot point.

reds44
06-07-2009, 10:28 PM
Alonso is hitting .200 at AA right now. Not going to happen.

Will M
06-07-2009, 10:32 PM
Alonso is hitting .200 at AA right now. Not going to happen.

i am not specifically asking for Alonso.

i want the Reds management to do something to help the 2009 team because the way the team is currently arranged it is not going to be successfull.

Will M
06-07-2009, 10:33 PM
We might just need to accept that reality. Not much (realistically) Walt can do right now. A DeRosa or Atkins is not going to make a huge difference at this point.

Bottom line: We were a limited offensive team when healthy, and right now, our best hitter is not playing and another guy who adds pop to the line-up is out as well. The team was not built to be able to afford those losses to the roster--you can blame Walt for that, but I see a plan unfolding here and we just so happen to be at an "in between" stage.

The pitching has been better than advertised and as a fan, it is frustrating as heck to see us lose so many games we seemingly "deserve" to win, especially after begging for this type of production from the pitching staff for years.

But there is no room or need for Walt to panic right now and make a move for the sake of making a move. The ONLY way this team is going to be in contention come September is if Votto and EE return and play effectively. All of the Garrett Atkins in the world can't save us otherwise.

Now, IF those guys return then maybe we can round out the line-up with a DeRosa type-- but if our big boppers aren't there, it's a moot point.

one of my points is that if Walt doesn't do something now then it won't matter as the Reds will be way too far back to catch up later when Votto/EE are healthy.

kaldaniels
06-07-2009, 10:34 PM
Walt Jocketty needs to make some move(s) to shore up the offense or kiss the 2009 season good bye. The Reds are pitching very well & losing way too many low scoring games. They are painfull to watch at times.
The team ERA+ is 113 (!) but the team OPS+ is 89.

Hernandez & Hanigan make a fine catching duo but Ramon at 1B has to be one of the weakest 1B bats in baseball.

Gonzo is hitting .211 at SS.

We don't know when EE & Votto will return.

Walt doesn't have to pull some mega deal but IMO he needs to do something to boost the team's offense. Buy low on Garret Atkins? DeRosa?? Call up Alonso from AA???

I really really hate the idea of trying to 'hang in there' until EE & Votto return.
The Reds season could be long over by the time they do.

Our MVP caliber 1st baseman is on the 15 day DL...are you suggesting the Reds make a move for an above average 1st baseball bat? We'd all agree Ramon is below average in terms of a 1st baseman bat, but isn't this a temporary situation that the team has to get through.

If a good move is to be made, make it, but the Reds can't be desperate at this point. If you want to single out a position, I'd have to start in the outfield myself.

Will M
06-07-2009, 10:40 PM
Our MVP caliber 1st baseman is on the 15 day DL...are you suggesting the Reds make a move for an above average 1st baseball bat? We'd all agree Ramon is below average in terms of a 1st baseman bat, but isn't this a temporary situation that the team has to get through.

If a good move is to be made, make it, but the Reds can't be desperate at this point. If you want to single out a position, I'd have to start in the outfield myself.

1. no one knows when Votto will return. assuming that he can get his stress/anxiety issue fixed in 15 days is a poor assumption.

2. find a guy who can play 1B and somewhere else (when Votto comes back).
Atkins? DeRosa?? someone else???
Or get a third baseman (Beltre?) & play Hairston at SS.
Be creative. But do something.

3. if you want to fix the outfield DL Taveras (or just get rid of him!) and see if Stubbs or Heissey can play CF now. Or at least see if they can play CF vs LHP and platoon with Dickerson.

kaldaniels
06-07-2009, 10:43 PM
1. no one knows when Votto will return. assuming that he can get his stress/anxiety issue fixed in 15 days is a poor assumption.

2. find a guy who can play 1B and somewhere else (when Votto comes back).
Atkins? DeRosa?? someone else???
Or get a third baseman (Beltre?) & play Hairston at SS.
Be creative. But do something.

3. if you want to fix the outfield DL Taveras (or just get rid of him!) and see if Stubbs or Heissey can play CF now. Or at least see if they can play CF vs LHP and platoon with Dickerson.

There are only so many moves Walt will be able to make. What position would you like to be the primary one that would be upgraded? I know the variables about trades are infinite, but what one position would you like Walt to key in on.

Will M
06-07-2009, 10:47 PM
There are only so many moves Walt will be able to make. What position would you like to be the primary one that would be upgraded? I know the variables about trades are infinite, but what one position would you like Walt to key in on.

Shortstop is the obvious one but improving this would be very hard mid season.

if Walt were to make one deal to try & help the team survive i would focus on getting a third baseman.

camisadelgolf
06-07-2009, 11:09 PM
Alonso is hitting .200 at AA right now. Not going to happen.
. . . after six games. SSS

I'm not condoning calling up Alonso, but if the Reds were in win-now mode with a full 40-man roster and wanted to stay in-house, Yonder Alonso and Drew Sutton are the only legitimate chances for an upgrade in the offense imo.

Highlifeman21
06-07-2009, 11:27 PM
2009 was DOA.

Our pitching will come back to Earth, our offense can't possibly continue to be this bad, but with worse pitching and slightly better offense, we're still going to be a team that resembles the 2006 squad b/c we'll seem like we're in the division race until possibly mid August, and then we'll show our true colors and roll over and die.

kaldaniels
06-07-2009, 11:53 PM
2009 was DOA.

Our pitching will come back to Earth, our offense can't possibly continue to be this bad, but with worse pitching and slightly better offense, we're still going to be a team that resembles the 2006 squad b/c we'll seem like we're in the division race until possibly mid August, and then we'll show our true colors and roll over and die.

Any specifics on what pitching will come back to earth. I could actually see the staff getting better.

redsmetz
06-08-2009, 05:19 AM
Any specifics on what pitching will come back to earth. I could actually see the staff getting better.

Thank you for asking this, because it seems to always be the belief around here that we are completely and rigidly locked into numbers and that we're incapable of improvement that will last.

This is going to be a tough season, particularly if Votto and Encarnacion are going to be out for an extended length of time. I think if we'd have had the full compliment of our offense, it's a more than adequate offense; not great, but it may well have been sufficient.

That said, we're going nowhere if we don't get some of the other guys hitting. Today's game was heartbreaking. So many opportunities to win it and we didn't. This team can ill afford to give away games like this. We know that much.

traderumor
06-08-2009, 06:56 AM
I sense that folks are uncomfortable with ballgames that hang around the 4-5 run mark instead of the 6-7 mark (or higher). So do something, Walt.

Highlifeman21
06-08-2009, 08:01 AM
Any specifics on what pitching will come back to earth. I could actually see the staff getting better.

We've already seen Cueto start to come back to Earth.

Arroyo won't continue to rack up Ws with his numbers. Would anyone have guessed he'd have 7 Ws right now with those kinda numbers?

We'll continue to see 5th Starter by Committee, and while I don't expect someone to go Josh Fogg on us, I think we'll see the 5th SP crew post an ERA North of 5, and possibly even as high as 5.50. Owings will contribute to that, as I don't see him keeping his ERA under 5.

Now, to the bullpen.

Cordero (currently 6th on the team in IP, does that seem WAY too high to anyone else?), Herrera, Masset, Weathers, Rhodes and Fisher will all watch their ERAs increase. Does anyone think that Rhodes and Masset will keep their ERAs under 1? Does anyone think that Cordero and Herrera will keep their ERAs under 2? Does anyone think that Weathers and Fisher will keep their ERAs under 3?

So while it's remotely possible that the rotation might improve (I mean if they get any worse, yuck. I don't wanna think about how quickly we'll go South in the standings...), it's completely unreasonable to think that the pen will keep doing what they're doing. They can't maintain this status quo. They have nowhere to go but up.

RedlegJake
06-08-2009, 08:47 AM
Meh. The Reds have lost Volquie from the staff, Votto and EE from the lineup. On a team with little offense to begin with that's huge. That they are still 3.5 out and haven't completely collapsed already is amazing.

They can't keep this up without getting some help from somewhere - either their own back or some kind of deal - but I dont see ANY comp to the 2006 team, which was a poor squad with little pitching and a hit-and-miss offense that scored 9 one night and 1 the next and played fundamentally horrible baseball. That squad seemed to quit in early August after they hit a losing skid and played listless ball thereafter.

These guys are undermanned, the offense is overmatched by 4/5ths of the pitchers in the league yet they don't give up. The Cubs game was frustrating as all get out. I wanted to scream. But it's not time to jump to conclusions about how this team is going to go south, things are going to get worse, etc. I think we're seeing this year's "worse" right now.

Unfortunately, unless Walt comes up with a surprise deal to help the O, or Votto and EE get back sooner than expected, this team's heart and grit is simply going to be trumped by lack of hitting talent on many nights, just like last night.

nate
06-08-2009, 08:53 AM
I sense that folks are uncomfortable with ballgames that hang around the 4-5 run mark instead of the 6-7 mark (or higher). So do something, Walt.

I sense that folks are uncomfortable with ballgames where the Reds score fewer runs than their opponents.

Jpup
06-08-2009, 08:57 AM
I sense that folks are uncomfortable with ballgames where the Reds score fewer runs than their opponents.

:beerme:

traderumor
06-08-2009, 09:20 AM
I sense that folks are uncomfortable with ballgames where the Reds score fewer runs than their opponents.Then why are folks singling out the offense in post after post after post and thread after thread after thread? Why not tell Walt to go get more pitching and more defense, try to hold the other team to two runs instead of 3 for a win? :beerme:

Ltlabner
06-08-2009, 09:22 AM
http://smg.photobucket.com/albums/v319/tankexmortis/Smileys/th_93c18967.gif

traderumor
06-08-2009, 09:26 AM
http://smg.photobucket.com/albums/v319/tankexmortis/Smileys/th_93c18967.gifBTW, before Ltlabner head explodes, I was being facetious for the benefit of the Captain Obvious' responding to me.

nate
06-08-2009, 10:00 AM
Then why are folks singling out the offense in post after post after post and thread after thread after thread?

Because the offense is poor.


Why not tell Walt to go get more pitching and more defense, try to hold the other team to two runs instead of 3 for a win? :beerme:
Because getting the kind of defense and pitching needed to do that is prohibitively expensive in terms of money and organizational treasure.

nate
06-08-2009, 10:01 AM
BTW, before Ltlabner head explodes, I was being facetious for the benefit of the Captain Obvious' responding to me.

I'm glad I didn't post what I originally wrote then!

:cool:

Patrick Bateman
06-08-2009, 10:18 AM
We've already seen Cueto start to come back to Earth.

Arroyo won't continue to rack up Ws with his numbers. Would anyone have guessed he'd have 7 Ws right now with those kinda numbers?

We'll continue to see 5th Starter by Committee, and while I don't expect someone to go Josh Fogg on us, I think we'll see the 5th SP crew post an ERA North of 5, and possibly even as high as 5.50. Owings will contribute to that, as I don't see him keeping his ERA under 5.

Now, to the bullpen.

Cordero (currently 6th on the team in IP, does that seem WAY too high to anyone else?), Herrera, Masset, Weathers, Rhodes and Fisher will all watch their ERAs increase. Does anyone think that Rhodes and Masset will keep their ERAs under 1? Does anyone think that Cordero and Herrera will keep their ERAs under 2? Does anyone think that Weathers and Fisher will keep their ERAs under 3?

So while it's remotely possible that the rotation might improve (I mean if they get any worse, yuck. I don't wanna think about how quickly we'll go South in the standings...), it's completely unreasonable to think that the pen will keep doing what they're doing. They can't maintain this status quo. They have nowhere to go but up.

Everyone is not going to get worse. It's no more realistic than the posts where every young guy on the team is going to make immediate improvements.

The Reds' great bullpen results are partially a result of strong defensive play, and much of those players have strong periperhals. Those things aren't likely to go away, and help lead to great ERA's, even if they aren't closely in line with their norms. There's a reason that we're a third of the way through the season, and that most pitchers in the pen are sporting such great numbers, unlike years past where we couldn't get one guy with huge numbers.

Collectively, it's hard to imagine the bullpen not taking a bit of step back, but projecting a complete and utter collapse, player for player in the bullpen, is more than just a little pessimistic.

OnBaseMachine
06-08-2009, 10:44 AM
We've already seen Cueto start to come back to Earth.


We have?

He's fourth in the NL in ERA.

Mario-Rijo
06-08-2009, 10:44 AM
Meh. The Reds have lost Volquie from the staff, Votto and EE from the lineup. On a team with little offense to begin with that's huge. That they are still 3.5 out and haven't completely collapsed already is amazing.

They can't keep this up without getting some help from somewhere - either their own back or some kind of deal - but I dont see ANY comp to the 2006 team, which was a poor squad with little pitching and a hit-and-miss offense that scored 9 one night and 1 the next and played fundamentally horrible baseball. That squad seemed to quit in early August after they hit a losing skid and played listless ball thereafter.

These guys are undermanned, the offense is overmatched by 4/5ths of the pitchers in the league yet they don't give up. The Cubs game was frustrating as all get out. I wanted to scream. But it's not time to jump to conclusions about how this team is going to go south, things are going to get worse, etc. I think we're seeing this year's "worse" right now.

Unfortunately, unless Walt comes up with a surprise deal to help the O, or Votto and EE get back sooner than expected, this team's heart and grit is simply going to be trumped by lack of hitting talent on many nights, just like last night.

I don't know about us being our worse right now we'll see when August rolls around. But I agree with you on all the other counts.

tripleaaaron
06-08-2009, 10:50 AM
All of the Garrett Atkins in the world can't save us otherwise.



Thats because he's the only one of them that plays ball. ;) I completely agree, the only trades that need to be made are ones that further extend or strengthen our window of 2010-2012. Why trade a valuable piece that can be used at that time just to fall short of making the playoffs anyway.

Highlifeman21
06-08-2009, 10:57 AM
We have?

He's fourth in the NL in ERA.

He sported a sub 2 ERA for awhile.

That's no longer the case.

OnBaseMachine
06-08-2009, 11:00 AM
He sported a sub 2 ERA for awhile.

That's no longer the case.

His ERA was under 2.00 for three starts. Did you really expect him to post Pedro Martinez-in-his-prime numbers this season? His ERA is 2.43. I would be thrilled if he finished the season with a 3.50 ERA. That would be tremendous for a 23-year old. Heck, even a 4.00 ERA would show huge improvement.

mbgrayson
06-08-2009, 11:06 AM
The problem is obviously the offense. In the three game series against the Cubbies, we scored 7 runs. SEVEN. Three games.

Zambrano was on his 'A' game Friday, so we could let that go. But in 25 innings on Saturday and Sunday, we scored 6 runs....That won't work if we want to finish above .500, let alone go to the playoffs.

OnBaseMachine
06-08-2009, 11:11 AM
The problem is obviously the offense. In the three game series against the Cubbies, we scored 7 runs. SEVEN. Three games.

Zambrano was on his 'A' game Friday, so we could let that go. But in 25 innings on Saturday and Sunday, we scored 6 runs....That won't work if we want to finish above .500, let alone go to the playoffs.

And all four of those runs on Saturday were gifts from Mike Fontenot. If not for his errors, the Reds would've never scored.

Highlifeman21
06-08-2009, 11:15 AM
Everyone is not going to get worse. It's no more realistic than the posts where every young guy on the team is going to make immediate improvements.

The Reds' great bullpen results are partially a result of strong defensive play, and much of those players have strong periperhals. Those things aren't likely to go away, and help lead to great ERA's, even if they aren't closely in line with their norms. There's a reason that we're a third of the way through the season, and that most pitchers in the pen are sporting such great numbers, unlike years past where we couldn't get one guy with huge numbers.

Collectively, it's hard to imagine the bullpen not taking a bit of step back, but projecting a complete and utter collapse, player for player in the bullpen, is more than just a little pessimistic.

Or it's par for the course for the Reds over the Lost Decade

Highlifeman21
06-08-2009, 11:23 AM
His ERA was under 2.00 for three starts. Did you really expect him to post Pedro Martinez-in-his-prime numbers this season? His ERA is 2.43. I would be thrilled if he finished the season with a 3.50 ERA. That would be tremendous for a 23-year old. Heck, even a 4.00 ERA would show huge improvement.

I would also be thrilled if he posted a 3.50 ERA for the season, as it would be an improvement from last year.

However, the premise of my posts is that given our current numbers/stats, we're not going to see improvement across the board (although we might see some individual improvement... Bailey can't get worse, can he? Burton can't get worse, can he?), the best we can really hope for is status quo across the board, but realistically we'll see wholesale worse numbers from our entire staff, especially the bullpen.

Mario-Rijo
06-08-2009, 11:39 AM
I would also be thrilled if he posted a 3.50 ERA for the season, as it would be an improvement from last year.

However, the premise of my posts is that given our current numbers/stats, we're not going to see improvement across the board (although we might see some individual improvement... Bailey can't get worse, can he? Burton can't get worse, can he?), the best we can really hope for is status quo across the board, but realistically we'll see wholesale worse numbers from our entire staff, especially the bullpen.

Burton can't get worse? I'd argue yes he can. He just had 1.1 IP and 2.0 IP back to back and despite not necc. looking that good he didn't give up an earned run in either. As a matter of fact that 2 IP against St. Louis was a good outing 1 BB, 1 Hit and 3 K's. Yeah he's struggling but he could be worse.

traderumor
06-08-2009, 11:48 AM
Because the offense is poor.


Because getting the kind of defense and pitching needed to do that is prohibitively expensive in terms of money and organizational treasure.Yes, the offense is potentially average, but now pitching and defense is above average (despite certain broadcasters' propensity to judge D by number of errors committed :rolleyes:). However, it is likely that moves to improve the offense will hurt the D or cost to much money for too little return (pursing Holliday). So, that is Walt's conundrum. I'm not sure that "doing something" is going to solve it.

traderumor
06-08-2009, 11:59 AM
So, while I'm here, what are realistic hopes for incremental improvement in season? By incremental improvement, find offense that exceeds the increment of their D asset/burden?

Holliday (too expensive)?
Dickerson/Stubbs platoon (free Willy?)

What is Walt supposed to do (seen lots of complaining and unrealistic suggestions, looking for some substantive ideas)?

Patrick Bateman
06-08-2009, 12:05 PM
Or it's par for the course for the Reds over the Lost Decade

Right, every year, after 50+ games the Reds have an elite bullpen, only to have a complete collapse by basically every single pitcher, and that's how they end up at the bottom of the pile.

Par for the course.

Brutus
06-08-2009, 12:56 PM
Couple of points I'll add to this...

* We don't know when Joey Votto will be back; this does not mean Walt Jocketty and the organization don't have an idea.

* Edwin Encarnacion is due to start rehab sometime this week. In fact, it could be any day now. He's gone through batting practice the last few days and is said to be ready to begin a rehab assignment. Barring setback, he should be back by next week. Though I'm in the camp that would like to see a trade for someone like Adrian Beltre, Edwin Encarnacion is a huge upgrade to the offense compared to where it's at now. Baby steps.

* To the folks that said the pitching will not keep this up: I would argue the pitching has been exactly where it should be. I think the Reds' staff is only meeting expectations. Case in point: everyone rags on Micah Owings saying they don't think he can keep his ERA at or below 5.00. All the best prognostications and projections of stats based on true outcomes say his ERA is right where it should be. His FIP is 4.95, his xERA is 4.99, his ERC is 5.12 and his DIPS is 4.98. His ERA right now is 4.90. I would say that's pretty darn close. Compare that to someone like, say, Jeff Suppan (4.66) who's same numbers are 5.90, 5.90, 6.12 and 6.20 respectively. Or, how about Braden Looper (4.65) - 5.50, 5.10, 4.91 and 5.58. Those are examples of being unable to sustain.

Despite nagging injuries, notably to their 80 RC third baseman and their star .450-plus OBP first baseman missing a third of the season, this team has battled inconsistency and still is 3.5 games out of the second-best division in baseball with an above-.500 record. I absolutely think there are weaknesses here. But I don't think it's the doomsday scenario we are talking about, provided they can get these guys healthy and acquire a bat or two.

Mario-Rijo
06-08-2009, 01:10 PM
Couple of points I'll add to this...

* We don't know when Joey Votto will be back; this does not mean Walt Jocketty and the organization don't have an idea.

* Edwin Encarnacion is due to start rehab sometime this week. In fact, it could be any day now. He's gone through batting practice the last few days and is said to be ready to begin a rehab assignment. Barring setback, he should be back by next week. Though I'm in the camp that would like to see a trade for someone like Adrian Beltre, Edwin Encarnacion is a huge upgrade to the offense compared to where it's at now. Baby steps.

* To the folks that said the pitching will not keep this up: I would argue the pitching has been exactly where it should be. I think the Reds' staff is only meeting expectations. Case in point: everyone rags on Micah Owings saying they don't think he can keep his ERA at or below 5.00. All the best prognostications and projections of stats based on true outcomes say his ERA is right where it should be. His FIP is 4.95, his xERA is 4.99, his ERC is 5.12 and his DIPS is 4.98. His ERA right now is 4.90. I would say that's pretty darn close. Compare that to someone like, say, Jeff Suppan (4.66) who's same numbers are 5.90, 5.90, 6.12 and 6.20 respectively. Or, how about Braden Looper (4.65) - 5.50, 5.10, 4.91 and 5.58. Those are examples of being unable to sustain.

Despite nagging injuries, notably to their 80 RC third baseman and their star .450-plus OBP first baseman missing a third of the season, this team has battled inconsistency and still is 3.5 games out of the second-best division in baseball with an above-.500 record. I absolutely think there are weaknesses here. But I don't think it's the doomsday scenario we are talking about, provided they can get these guys healthy and acquire a bat or two.

I agree with all of this. Except to say that EE very well may have had a set back with that wrist already, to what extent is the question.

Brutus
06-08-2009, 01:15 PM
I agree with all of this. Except to say that EE very well may have had a set back with that wrist already, to what extent is the question.

Yeah, sure enough, I just noticed that he's now going to get an MRI done on his wrist, which has been sore the last few days. That's typically not good news.

edabbs44
06-08-2009, 01:21 PM
The #1 thing Walt shouldn't do is sell the future in order to chase the 2009 dream. Many seem to want to go from 0-60 in one season. Doesn't have to happen that way. The core is young and are under control for a while....no need to rush and try and win it all this season at the expense of the future. Unless, of course, a great deal is there for the taking.

To be honest, if someone wanted to overpay with some young talent for one of the Reds expensive veterans (i.e. Arroyo), I'd be all ears.

I'd also be targeting (where possible) close to the majors guys in the draft in order to supplement the existing roster in 2-3 years.

Will M
06-08-2009, 01:23 PM
But I don't think it's the doomsday scenario we are talking about, provided they can get these guys healthy and acquire a bat or two.

agree.

most posters seem content to say 'we are only 3.5 games out of first. lets wait for EE & Votto to come back' . i say 'lets get a player or 2 to help now then when we get to full health we will really have something'. the Reds are close now but a slide by us & a sprint by the Cards or Brewers could have us 10 games out by the halfway point. then it won't matter if EE/Votto come back because we will have lost too much ground to make up

Kc61
06-08-2009, 01:33 PM
The Reds have obvious needs. Three positions, LF, SS, and perhaps 3B are unsettled. The team lacks power and OBP skills. The current scenario for the team gets worse if Votto or Volquez have longer term issues, hopefully not.

To be a winning team, at some point, Walt will have to get a major hitter to fill one of these positions. He also has to improve the OBP of the top of the order. These are necessary if the Reds are going to win.

IMO this will only be accomplished with a big trade or two, or possibly a major free agent signing. It won't be accomplished just waiting for all the minor leaguers to develop. Just my view, others may disagree.

So the question is timing. When do the Reds go for it by spending some money or trading good minor league talent, or both.

My guess is not now.

The scenario I see is that the Reds trade either Arroyo or Harang at the deadline this year and save some money that way. Open a spot for Bailey in the rotation. Then, using that cost savings, the Reds go for a hitter in the off-season. All the other improvements come from the system or inexpensive acquisitions.

KoryMac5
06-08-2009, 01:37 PM
I think Walt has probably been working the phone a bit trying to figure out where some teams stand. Unfortunately for him it looks like the only club who is waving the white flag so far is Washington and to some extent Cleveland. I would imagine by the end of June more teams will have decided whether they are in it for the long haul or rebuilding. I would also imagine the Reds will also know by June if they are still buyers or are moving into sell mode.

edabbs44
06-08-2009, 01:40 PM
IMO this will only be accomplished with a big trade or two, or possibly a major free agent signing. It won't be accomplished just waiting for all the minor leaguers to develop. Just my view, others may disagree.

So the question is timing. When do the Reds go for it by spending some money or trading good minor league talent, or both.

My guess is not now.

The scenario I see is that the Reds trade either Arroyo or Harang at the deadline this year and save some money that way. Open a spot for Bailey in the rotation. Then, using that cost savings, the Reds go for a hitter in the off-season. All the other improvements come from the system or inexpensive acquisitions.

Very good post.

hippie07
06-08-2009, 02:59 PM
Would you do Alonso & fringe for Holliday.... I would!

I'd bring Frazier up for 3rd and if that doesn't work out then go the trade route for 3rd base as well... the Reds really have to contend now before it's too late...

I think Nix & Gomes can hold down 1st base until Votto gets it together....

RedlegJake
06-08-2009, 03:05 PM
Would you do Alonso & fringe for Holliday.... I would!

I'd bring Frazier up for 3rd and if that doesn't work out then go the trade route for 3rd base as well... the Reds really have to contend now before it's too late...

I think Nix & Gomes can hold down 1st base until Votto gets it together....

Seriously, no disrespect intended but I'm glad you're not the GM. Holliday is a rental. He will not sign long term with the Reds if they acquire him because the Reds won't up for the kind of money and the years he will want. To have an outside, dubious shot at making it this year, you'll trade the best hitter, maybe the only true impact bat the Reds have in the minors, for half a season of Holliday?

hippie07
06-08-2009, 03:56 PM
Seriously, no disrespect intended but I'm glad you're not the GM. Holliday is a rental. He will not sign long term with the Reds if they acquire him because the Reds won't up for the kind of money and the years he will want. To have an outside, dubious shot at making it this year, you'll trade the best hitter, maybe the only true impact bat the Reds have in the minors, for half a season of Holliday?

Yes

TheNext44
06-08-2009, 04:40 PM
Would you do Alonso & fringe for Holliday.... I would!

I'd bring Frazier up for 3rd and if that doesn't work out then go the trade route for 3rd base as well... the Reds really have to contend now before it's too late...

I think Nix & Gomes can hold down 1st base until Votto gets it together....

I would make that trade too, but I don't think the Reds have to.

With Holiday being a rental and having an off year, his price most likely will be three or four #15-30 prospects. I doubt the A's will get a top ten prospect for him, let alone a #1.

Reds/Flyers Fan
06-08-2009, 05:15 PM
Why can't the Reds sign Holliday to a long-term deal? He could be an anchor in this lineup for years. You have to pay for that kind of production or keep wheeling out rif-raf like Nix and Gomes.

reds44
06-08-2009, 05:20 PM
agree.

most posters seem content to say 'we are only 3.5 games out of first. lets wait for EE & Votto to come back' . i say 'lets get a player or 2 to help now then when we get to full health we will really have something'. the Reds are close now but a slide by us & a sprint by the Cards or Brewers could have us 10 games out by the halfway point. then it won't matter if EE/Votto come back because we will have lost too much ground to make up
I fully understand the "if we're still in it when Votto and EE get back" thoughts and I agree with it to a certain extent. Obviously that will give the offense a huge boost, but even with Edwin and Votto this team still needs upgrades at LF and SS (as it has since the end of last season). Walt can put a giant band aid on the offense by going out and getting a Dye or Holiday, and then the team will get even more of a boost when Votto and Edwin return.

I'm not saying sell the farm either, but it'd be more than willing to trade Bailey and another prospect if it got us an actual LFer in return.

hippie07
06-08-2009, 05:44 PM
I would make that trade too, but I don't think the Reds have to.

With Holiday being a rental and having an off year, his price most likely will be three or four #15-30 prospects. I doubt the A's will get a top ten prospect for him, let alone a #1.

Yeah, I'm hoping the deal gets done for less. When I first heard Alonso's name thrown out for a rental ... I was like ... no way... but my perspective has changed w/ all these anemic offense games ...

I almost think these losses hurt worse, because we are so close to being in the picture, but not quite there....

Holliday could be the piece that gets us over the top... maybe not, but in my mind it's worth the chance .... Alonso could be the next Pujols, and that would really, really sting... but he's a while from the majors and anything could happen in that time...

TheNext44
06-08-2009, 06:17 PM
Why can't the Reds sign Holliday to a long-term deal? He could be an anchor in this lineup for years. You have to pay for that kind of production or keep wheeling out rif-raf like Nix and Gomes.

One word: Boras.

Beelzebub, I mean Boras, is his agent. Boras always test the Free Agent waters and always signs for the most money possible. Boras clients almost never sign with mid market teams.

I am sure that Jocketty and Cast share your desire for a middle of the order hitter, and are willing to pay fair value for him. But Holliday will not sign for fair value, not with Boras as an agent.

RedlegJake
06-08-2009, 06:51 PM
One word: Boras.

Beelzebub, I mean Boras, is his agent. Boras always test the Free Agent waters and always signs for the most money possible. Boras clients almost never sign with mid market teams.

I am sure that Jocketty and Cast share your desire for a middle of the order hitter, and are willing to pay fair value for him. But Holliday will not sign for fair value, not with Boras as an agent.

Exactly why I wouldn't deal Alonso if that's what was demanded. I'm not sure I'd even step back to Frazier. With both Stubbs and Heisey I might deal from surplus and start the deal with one of those two, then add Francisco or an arm not named Stewart or Bailey. And that's it.

TheNext44
06-09-2009, 02:57 AM
Exactly why I wouldn't deal Alonso if that's what was demanded. I'm not sure I'd even step back to Frazier. With both Stubbs and Heisey I might deal from surplus and start the deal with one of those two, then add Francisco or an arm not named Stewart or Bailey. And that's it.

It really comes down to what you think the Reds chances are this year. If you think that Holiday puts the Reds in serious contention or hopefully the playoffs, the deal makes sense.

The Brewers gave up LaPorta + for a few months of CC, and I don't think that they regret it. Pennants fly forever, and teams break up too quickly due to free agency and arbitration to hold onto prospects. And remember that the if the Reds get Holliday and he walks, they get two draft picks, who really won't be that far off from Alonso.

Ron Madden
06-09-2009, 03:29 AM
The reason for having prospects is to make your club better, even if that means trading a few of'em every now and then.

redsmetz
06-09-2009, 07:57 AM
It really comes down to what you think the Reds chances are this year. If you think that Holiday puts the Reds in serious contention or hopefully the playoffs, the deal makes sense.

The Brewers gave up LaPorta + for a few months of CC, and I don't think that they regret it. Pennants fly forever, and teams break up too quickly due to free agency and arbitration to hold onto prospects. And remember that the if the Reds get Holliday and he walks, they get two draft picks, who really won't be that far off from Alonso.

I'm not convinced that draft picks translate as readily as they do in other sports. That said, I don't disagree with you. What I object to is posts that start the game at our top hitting and pitching prospects. Far too often, RZ'ers are all too willing to let the club we're trading with back the truck in and load it up. I'll only agree to that if ORH's is driving the truck, because I can trust him to bring them back to us. :)

Seriously though, I think we're at the point this year where we can use some of our surplus to improve the ML club, even for this year. But I agree with Krivsky's approach (and what may be his enduring legacy) in that our very top prospects are off the table at present.

RedlegJake
06-09-2009, 08:16 AM
It really comes down to what you think the Reds chances are this year. If you think that Holiday puts the Reds in serious contention or hopefully the playoffs, the deal makes sense.

The Brewers gave up LaPorta + for a few months of CC, and I don't think that they regret it. Pennants fly forever, and teams break up too quickly due to free agency and arbitration to hold onto prospects. And remember that the if the Reds get Holliday and he walks, they get two draft picks, who really won't be that far off from Alonso.

You and I are not far off then. I completely agree. IF you think Holliday is enough to put us over the top then go for it. I think that still depends very much on Volquez and Votto getting back healthy reasonably soon - if Joey is out for any extended period then I don't see Holliday as enough of an upgrade to put the Reds in serious contention.

I still see this year as getting to 84-85 wins with the ultimate goal to reach the playoffs in 2010 and staying there beyond that. Stubbs/Maloney/Frazier/Valaika/Alonso/Heisey/Roenicke/Fisher/Sutton/Cozart/Stewart - all these guys are close but still a year or two away. By next year this infusion should begin in earnest and the Reds can deal from strength and surpluses to upgrade positions.

Patience is hard when you've been losing but the year to pull that trigger on prospects isn't this year - it's next year when all those guys are truly on the cusp and are really in high demand. Then Walt can pick and choose.

REDREAD
06-09-2009, 08:56 AM
This is a team in transition. For better or worse, Walt is deciding what players he inherited are keepers and which need to be upgraded. Expecting this team to contend this year was not realistic. I'd be thrilled if they finished at .500 I hope they at least incrementally improve from last year.

If Walt can make a trade which will plug a hole longterm, I'm all for it, regardless of who is given up, as long as the trade improves us for the longterm.

This team only won 74 games (IIRC) last year. It lost Dunn and Jr. It's going to take awhile to fix this team.

RedLegSuperStar
06-09-2009, 09:21 AM
The Reds can sign Matt Holliday.. Hollidays numbers are down & he has shown in the past that he is a Coors Field product. That being said he past on the best deal he probably will be offered by the Rockies. The market is decreasing on players.. Many players are taking pay cuts or what seemed to be cuts just to play. I think Buster Olney stated that Holliday would probably get 10-12 million per year on the open market. I'd be willing to bet the Reds could do better.

Bailey, Fisher, T. Wood, & Stubbs

Sea Ray
06-09-2009, 09:46 AM
I wish RZs would get in the real world. Stuff like "Reds can sign Holliday" and "sure, trade 10 yrs of production (Alonzo) for a 3 mo rental."

The Reds will not offer Holliday anything in free agency nor will they trade Alonzo for a rental. That's how you do things if you're the Mets or the Yankees. That's not a winning formula in Cincinnati.

This thread brings back memories of the hundreds and hundreds of Bedard posts that were made a year ago, many of which advised the Reds to trade the likes of Votto and Ceuto for him. That would have been insane and Bedard wasn't even a 3 mo rental. What do you think Seattle fans think of that trade now? Think their stomach churns everytime they see Adam Jones in the league's offensive leaders?

Crosley68
06-09-2009, 10:06 AM
In the past I have been unwilling to have patience for the future because I had my doubts that the people in charge had a clue how to plan for it. I think I have more faith in the decision makers now so I think I would not give in to the allure of now in exchange for later.

I get frustrated with this years team, but I actually have some excitement for the next few years.......and that hasnt happened since 1999.

RANDY IN INDY
06-09-2009, 10:29 AM
I wish RZs would get in the real world. Stuff like "Reds can sign Holliday" and "sure, trade 10 yrs of production (Alonzo) for a 3 mo rental."

The Reds will not offer Holliday anything in free agency nor will they trade Alonzo for a rental. That's how you do things if you're the Mets or the Yankees. That's not a winning formula in Cincinnati.

This thread brings back memories of the hundreds and hundreds of Bedard posts that were made a year ago, many of which advised the Reds to trade the likes of Votto and Ceuto for him. That would have been insane and Bedard wasn't even a 3 mo rental. What do you think Seattle fans think of that trade now? Think their stomach churns everytime they see Adam Jones in the league's offensive leaders?

:beerme:

Will M
06-09-2009, 10:31 AM
1. Janish has an OPS of .701 vs .554 for Gonzo. Plus he has a better glove. lets see more of Janish at SS. he may not be a world beater but Gonzo is terrible


2. 'platoon' Dickerson & Rosales. Rosales has an OPS of .743 vs LHP (.610 vs RHP). Dickerson has an OPS of .767 vs RHP (.377 vs LHP)

Vs RHP play Dickerson in CF & Hairston at 3B

Vs LHP play Hairston in CF & Rosales at 3B


3. find some other bat somewhere to add to the roster until Votto/EE get back. ideally someone who can play 1B & at least one other position. it doesn't have to be a big stud. it could just be some generic ops 750 bat. just someone to help the team stay afloat

the position players for now would be:
C - Hernandez & Hanigan
1B - new guy & Hernandez
2B - Phillips
SS - Janish
3B - Hairston vs rhp & Rosales vs lhp
LF - Nix vs rhp & Gomes vs lhp
CF - Dickerson vs rhp & Hairston vs lhp
RF - Bruce
Bench - Gonzo
Pitch charter, bench warmer & Rosie Red emergency fill in - Taveras

_Sir_Charles_
06-09-2009, 10:35 AM
This is a team in transition. For better or worse, Walt is deciding what players he inherited are keepers and which need to be upgraded. Expecting this team to contend this year was not realistic. I'd be thrilled if they finished at .500 I hope they at least incrementally improve from last year.

If Walt can make a trade which will plug a hole longterm, I'm all for it, regardless of who is given up, as long as the trade improves us for the longterm.

This team only won 74 games (IIRC) last year. It lost Dunn and Jr. It's going to take awhile to fix this team.

I feel exactly the same way. All I'm looking for this season is improvement. We may not score as many runs as last year or in seasons past, but for individual players...I want to see some improvement. We've got several pieces in the minors that are pretty darned close to being able to help the big club. This year will give us a pretty good idea of where we stand for the future.

If a trade comes along that helps us for the future, go for it. But don't mortgage the future for the slim possibility of the playoffs this year.

Reds/Flyers Fan
06-09-2009, 11:16 AM
That's how you do things if you're the Mets or the Yankees. That's not a winning formula in Cincinnati.



What is a winning formula in Cincinnati then? Because I'm not sure I can envision it if players like Janish, Rosales, Nix, Gomes, etc are being counted on to win games and sell tickets.

Signing Matt Holliday wouldn't be cheap or easy. But is the ultimate goal of this franchise to win a World Series or just compete for the division every now and then and hopefully win it once a decade?

Ltlabner
06-09-2009, 11:44 AM
Building a team/frachise is a process that happens via wise drafting, smart player development, crafty trades, and "strategic" free agent signings. There is no magic bullet short of spending $10,000,000,000,000,000,000,000 every year.

Walt has to unenviable task of cobbling together a team from the ashes of The Lost Decade.

I would like to see the Reds think outside the box and try some new approaches besides calling up the next I71 Savior or trading for yet another super-scrappy Pete Rose wannabe. If that new approach includes a risky trade, or blockbuster deal, so be it.

TRF
06-09-2009, 12:20 PM
sigh.

Any deal for Holliday would require a 3 day negotiating period for extending him.Without that there would be no deal.

I may not agree with some of Walt's moves, but he's not an idiot.

HokieRed
06-09-2009, 01:25 PM
What is a winning formula in Cincinnati then? Because I'm not sure I can envision it if players like Janish, Rosales, Nix, Gomes, etc are being counted on to win games and sell tickets.

Signing Matt Holliday wouldn't be cheap or easy. But is the ultimate goal of this franchise to win a World Series or just compete for the division every now and then and hopefully win it once a decade?


Here's a winning formula, in the form of what I project as the 2010 roster.

SP: Harang, Arroyo, Cueto, Volquez, Bailey
BP: Cordero, Rhodes, Masset, Burton, Owings, Fisher, Herrera
Waiting in the wings: Maloney, Roenicke, Viola

IF: Alonso, 1b, Phillips 2b, SS, either Janish or to be acquired; 3b, Frazier
Backups: Two of Sutton, Rosales, Richar, Valaika

OF: Bruce, Stubbs, Votto
Backups: two of Dickerson, Heisey, or Nix

C: Hanigan and a backup to be acquired.

traderumor
06-09-2009, 01:28 PM
Here's a winning formula, in the form of what I project as the 2010 roster.

SP: Harang, Arroyo, Cueto, Volquez, Bailey
BP: Cordero, Rhodes, Masset, Burton, Owings, Fisher, Herrera
Waiting in the wings: Maloney, Roenicke, Viola

IF: Alonso, 1b, Phillips 2b, SS, either Janish or to be acquired; 3b, Frazier
Backups: Two of Sutton, Rosales, Richar, Valaika

OF: Bruce, Stubbs, Votto
Backups: two of Dickerson, Heisey, or Nix

C: Hanigan and a backup to be acquired.That is basically the same .500 club we have now. Alonso is prob. not a contributor until 2011.

KoryMac5
06-09-2009, 01:46 PM
Here's a winning formula, in the form of what I project as the 2010 roster.

SP: Harang, Arroyo, Cueto, Volquez, Bailey
BP: Cordero, Rhodes, Masset, Burton, Owings, Fisher, Herrera
Waiting in the wings: Maloney, Roenicke, Viola

IF: Alonso, 1b, Phillips 2b, SS, either Janish or to be acquired; 3b, Frazier
Backups: Two of Sutton, Rosales, Richar, Valaika

OF: Bruce, Stubbs, Votto
Backups: two of Dickerson, Heisey, or Nix

C: Hanigan and a backup to be acquired.

I would also add that either Harang or Arroyo will not be here in 2010. If I dare be a little bold I would say both won't be here as they will be dealt this year. I think the Reds are looking to shed payroll this season and both Harang and Arroyo are attractive options to teams looking to add pitching.

Sea Ray
06-09-2009, 02:24 PM
What is a winning formula in Cincinnati then? Because I'm not sure I can envision it if players like Janish, Rosales, Nix, Gomes, etc are being counted on to win games and sell tickets.

Signing Matt Holliday wouldn't be cheap or easy. But is the ultimate goal of this franchise to win a World Series or just compete for the division every now and then and hopefully win it once a decade?

First of all winning in Cincinnati is much more difficult than winning in NY. You're going to need some luck. In our case it'll probably involve trading vets for younger players, not the other way around. If you do trade a young player like Alonzo you better get another young player in return, not a rental.

I think their formula was right on track this year until Votto, EE and Volquez went down.

Guys like Nix and Gomes are chances we're taking to find a Ludwick, Josh Hamilton or an Abreu...guys who once were set free by their existing teams for whatever reasons. So far I'd say both are contributing. Markets like ours has to take chances on these kinds of players because we can't just buy a Dunn or a Beltran.

As for Rosales and Janish, they're utility players and good teams have them as well. The Dodgers have Juan Castro and Brad Ausmus.

jojo
06-09-2009, 02:27 PM
Trading Alonzo for Holliday would be a poor idea.

Sea Ray
06-09-2009, 02:49 PM
Trading Alonzo for Holliday would be a poor idea.

Spoken like a true Mariner fan...

OnBaseMachine
06-09-2009, 03:29 PM
Trading Alonzo for Holliday would be a poor idea.

I agree 100%.

I have no interest in selling off the farm for a three month rental.

wheels
06-09-2009, 03:49 PM
I can still envision a Jermaine Dye deal. Especially if they're close at the deadline.

I'll also posit that it will take less to acquire him than we're wont to believe.

If they aren't close at the deadline, I can see Arroyo dealt.

It's pretty much all that can be done this season, realistically.

TheNext44
06-09-2009, 04:03 PM
Trading Alonzo for Holliday would be a poor idea.


A) Alonso has not proven he can hit lefties yet, plays the least valuable (easiest to replace) defensive position, and is at least a year away. He may turn into a solid everyday 1B middle of the order hitter. Also, based on his negotiations last year, and his connection with A-Rod, I doubt he will last long as a Red, leaving as soon as he he is a free agent.

B) Holliday would provide a solid RH power bat for the middle of the order, solid defense in LF, and could possibly lead this current Reds team to the playoffs. Then, he will be a free agent, the Reds will offer him arbitration, which he will decline, and the Reds will get a first round draft pick somewhere between 15-30 and a supplemental pick between 30-45.

I think B at least equals A.

Anyway, kinda irrelevant, since no way the A's would be able to demand Alonso for Holiday.

BRM
06-09-2009, 04:09 PM
I agree 100%.

I have no interest in selling off the farm for a three month rental.

I don't think anyone else would either. I'm pretty sure those who would make that trade are only doing so assuming Holliday signs an extension. At least that's how I've read it.

As TRF put it earlier in the thread...


Any deal for Holliday would require a 3 day negotiating period for extending him.Without that there would be no deal.

I may not agree with some of Walt's moves, but he's not an idiot.

jojo
06-09-2009, 04:17 PM
Spoken like a true Mariner fan...

Both loves were served....

KoryMac5
06-09-2009, 04:25 PM
Heyman has stated that Hawpe has now been made available by the Rockies. He would be the guy I would target if I was in the FO. I would imagine four players would do it and the right combination may get them to throw in Atkins. Have to imagine they would ask for Alonso to start with.

BRM
06-09-2009, 04:31 PM
Heyman has stated that Hawpe has now been made available by the Rockies. He would be the guy I would target if I was in the FO. I would imagine four players would do it and the right combination may get them to throw in Atkins. Have to imagine they would ask for Alonso to start with.

I like Hawpe's bat but his defense leaves a lot to be desired. Hawpe's home/road splits aren't bad either suggesting he's not a "Coors mirage". I'd rather not have Atkins.

camisadelgolf
06-09-2009, 04:32 PM
Hawpe has slightly-inflated stats from Coors, has trouble against left-handed pitching, and plays horrible defense. It just doesn't make a lot of sense to go after him.

KoryMac5
06-09-2009, 04:52 PM
Hawpe has slightly-inflated stats from Coors, has trouble against left-handed pitching, and plays horrible defense. It just doesn't make a lot of sense to go after him.

Hawpe is hitting lefties pretty well this year (.319) and lifetime he hits them ok (.251). His home and away numbers are pretty close he has 48 home runs on the road and 48 home runs away for his career. Most folks were prepared to live with Dunn's defense I am sure having Stubbs or Dickerson in CF could help us live with Hawpe.

Highlifeman21
06-09-2009, 04:58 PM
Building a team/frachise is a process that happens via wise drafting, smart player development, crafty trades, and "strategic" free agent signings. There is no magic bullet short of spending $10,000,000,000,000,000,000,000 every year.

Walt has to unenviable task of cobbling together a team from the ashes of The Lost Decade.

I would like to see the Reds think outside the box and try some new approaches besides calling up the next I71 Savior or trading for yet another super-scrappy Pete Rose wannabe. If that new approach includes a risky trade, or blockbuster deal, so be it.

The problem is that lately we haven't drafted wisely, our player development is suspect at best, we've made no crafty trades (unless you wanna close your eyes and put the Hernandez for Freel trade in that category), and our "strategic" free agent signings were burning a pile of money on Willy Taveras, and wasting other resources on retreads and guys that are overpaid. Awesome.

Since 2000, our 1st Round Draft Picks have been Espinosa, Sowers, Gruler, Wagner, Bailey, Bruce, Stubbs, Mesoraco and Alonso. How has that group fared?

The answers are out of baseball, didn't sign with us, out of baseball, out of baseball, huge question mark, learning on the job, huge question mark, punted draft pick and can't miss prospect; respectively.

So, when you're wasting 1st Round Draft picks, and hoping you can develop later round talent within a system which has shown no great ability to develop talent, I think you've set yourself up for the epic fail of epic fails.

But yeah, I'm with you Ltlabner, we need to do SOMETHING. I'm sick of the Lost Decade.

GAC
06-09-2009, 05:15 PM
Then why are folks singling out the offense in post after post after post and thread after thread after thread? Why not tell Walt to go get more pitching and more defense, try to hold the other team to two runs instead of 3 for a win? :beerme:

Because the fans wouldn't notice it when they have been lulled to sleep trying to watch! :mooner:

Sea Ray
06-09-2009, 05:55 PM
The problem is that lately we haven't drafted wisely, our player development is suspect at best, we've made no crafty trades (unless you wanna close your eyes and put the Hernandez for Freel trade in that category), and our "strategic" free agent signings were burning a pile of money on Willy Taveras, and wasting other resources on retreads and guys that are overpaid. Awesome.

Since 2000, our 1st Round Draft Picks have been Espinosa, Sowers, Gruler, Wagner, Bailey, Bruce, Stubbs, Mesoraco and Alonso. How has that group fared?

The answers are out of baseball, didn't sign with us, out of baseball, out of baseball, huge question mark, learning on the job, huge question mark, punted draft pick and can't miss prospect; respectively.

So, when you're wasting 1st Round Draft picks, and hoping you can develop later round talent within a system which has shown no great ability to develop talent, I think you've set yourself up for the epic fail of epic fails.

But yeah, I'm with you Ltlabner, we need to do SOMETHING. I'm sick of the Lost Decade.


The Jim Bowden years were horrible in drafting talent. I "think" that has turned around. I'd say all of the post Bowden draft picks are locks to play in the major leagues except for Mesoraco and we knew he was a project. Seeing as one third of 1st rd picks never see the majors, we're doing OK.

Hopefully guys like Frazier, Wood, Heisy and others are headed to Cincinnati as well. It is absolutely critical that this franchise draft well

HokieRed
06-09-2009, 06:26 PM
That is basically the same .500 club we have now. Alonso is prob. not a contributor until 2011.

The roster I suggested is not at all the same club we have now. First of all, I disagree with you about when Alonso will be a contributor; I think he'll contribute in 2010. That means Votto goes to left, a major upgrade. Stubbs or a more mature Dickerson will be a major upgrade in CF and Bruce will be much better with another year's experience. Frazier will be better, I believe, than what we've had from 3b this year and certainly better than what we've had from EE, which has been next to nothing (probably through no fault of his own). Bailey can be an improvement at 5th starter, Volquez will be better with a year's experience, and the bullpen will be at least as solid. We need an acquisition at SS probably but unless you're willing to trade one of the starters (and I don't think Harang or Arroyo will do it), you're unlikely to get a significant upgrade. If you think we absolutely must have a top-line SS, you'd better think about keeping Harang and Arroyo and since I think trading Cueto is unthinkable, I'd focus on Volquez. But I don't really think the team gets better that way.

Ron Madden
06-10-2009, 02:42 AM
I agree 100%.

I have no interest in selling off the farm for a three month rental.

I've never been in agreement with trading the top prospects from the farm for a rental player.

I do believe those top prospects can sometimes be trading chips for players that are proven productive Major League Players.

traderumor
06-10-2009, 11:38 AM
The roster I suggested is not at all the same club we have now. First of all, I disagree with you about when Alonso will be a contributor; I think he'll contribute in 2010. That means Votto goes to left, a major upgrade. Stubbs or a more mature Dickerson will be a major upgrade in CF and Bruce will be much better with another year's experience. Frazier will be better, I believe, than what we've had from 3b this year and certainly better than what we've had from EE, which has been next to nothing (probably through no fault of his own). Bailey can be an improvement at 5th starter, Volquez will be better with a year's experience, and the bullpen will be at least as solid. We need an acquisition at SS probably but unless you're willing to trade one of the starters (and I don't think Harang or Arroyo will do it), you're unlikely to get a significant upgrade. If you think we absolutely must have a top-line SS, you'd better think about keeping Harang and Arroyo and since I think trading Cueto is unthinkable, I'd focus on Volquez. But I don't really think the team gets better that way.That's an awful lot of faith that the players we have in the system are the best options. I tend to think that at least one or two major contributors from outside this organization need to emerge each year for this team to arrive at another level.

RedlegJake
06-10-2009, 11:42 AM
That's an awful lot of faith that the players we have in the system are the best options. I tend to think that at least one or two major contributors from outside this organization need to emerge each year for this team to arrive at another level.

But thats what they did. Taveras, Gomes and Nix!!:p:

traderumor
06-10-2009, 12:33 PM
But thats what they did. Taveras, Gomes and Nix!!:p:I was responding to a look to next year. But, that does illustrate my point. They were brought in because we did not have viable solutions in house (save the Taveras/Dickerson debate for another time, if you don't mind). The suggestion I saw on how we would be improved next year were all in-house solutions, which is just too glossy a view of our org., or any MLB franchise for that matter.

TRF
06-10-2009, 12:34 PM
I don't think anyone else would either. I'm pretty sure those who would make that trade are only doing so assuming Holliday signs an extension. At least that's how I've read it.

As TRF put it earlier in the thread...


Thanks was tired of the "three month rental" talk two weeks ago.

LoganBuck
06-13-2009, 03:03 PM
This morning as I awoke from a tequila fueled haze, I checked out the highlights and game recaps, and got upset. To put it bluntly, Mr. Potato Head put on his angry eyes. The problem is the personnel on the field. End of story. I am sick of hearing about how the Reds need to add a big bat, while that would definitely help, it won't solve the epic failures that have been going on in this lineup.

Willy Taveras has been debated on here, it is clear that he is a speed driven player with a questionable bat, that doesn't have his speed right now. He needs to be on the bench, or the DL, or DFA. He needs to be out of the lineup. Whatever it takes, any of Dickerson, Stubbs, Hairston, or Heisey, would be superior offensively and defensively. Taveras is subtracting runs from this team just being on the field. His VORP is -5.7

Alex Gonzalez is another guy that isn't cutting it. Another VORP of -5.0, his defense on balls he gets to is just fine, but his range hasn't struck me as all that great this year. His current "hot" (as Dusty puts it) streak aside he hasn't done squat all year.

Adam Rosales an example of a guy who has been over exposed, and is obviously uncomfortable. I don't blame him that much because he is just filling a spot, but there are still people out there that think he is a young star. His VORP is -5.3. Walt failed to do something to upgrade the margins here.

For all the praise that is heaped upon Ramon Hernandez for standing over at first, and fielding that position. He is being paid $8 million. His VORP is -2.2 and his OPS is .670. Sorry folks that isn't cutting it.

I know this isn't how it works, but when you have 4 players in your lineup that combined total -18.2 VORP you know it is going to be ugly. This team needs to prune and promote, rather than pay and persist.

My suggestions.

1. Do something with Taveras, (bench, dl, dfa) use some sort of Hairston/Dickerson platoon
2. Acquire SS to replace Gonzalez. The Angels are trying to move an infielder, all of them are upgrades for the Reds. This an example of acquiring a player for now and in the future. Gonzalez is gone in October, why not fix this team now?
3. Option Adam Rosales to Louisville, Call up Drew Sutton from AAA or Todd Frazier from AA. They will man the fort until EdE returns, this team needs to try something different. I don't think either will be intimidated. If you need a 40 man roster spot for Frazier, Mike Lincoln has to go.
4. Play Hanigan as the #1 catcher once Votto returns. He is a superior defensive player, and I am not too sure given enough ABs that he isn't the better offensive player.

Maybe I am grasping at straws here but somethings needs to be done. Sunk costs be darned there are other options.

traderumor
06-13-2009, 03:53 PM
A country song needs to be written about the Reds titled "Somebody Needs to Do Something"

mth123
06-13-2009, 06:55 PM
A country song needs to be written about the Reds titled "Somebody Needs to Do Something"

To the tune of the Ballad of Billy Joe"

Willy T was signed the day my momma got of county jail.
Ltlabner promptly proclaimed the move an "epic fail."
SteelSD probably gave up maybe so did M2
and as the OPS sinks into the 5's we're asking "what can Walt Jocketty do?"

Flyer says he saw it coming and JoJo said he could see it too.
FCB's defending Walt while the rest have a "case of the goo"
OBM, SirCharles and Membengal try to save the game thread.
but with the offense so darn boring I'm afraid its already dead.

There's Dickerson, Stubbs and Heisey who all could probably man centerfield
But Dusty Baker's just refusing and on the subject he just won't yield.
Now the pitching's been doing well and the fans are hungry for a ring
and Redszone is crying out "somebody needs to do something."

Sorry. Had to do it.;)

GAC
06-13-2009, 07:28 PM
This FO is not gonna bench, DL, or DFA Taveras or Ramon for two simple reasons... it would mean this FO would have to admit they made a mistake (in the case of WT), and the contracts/money they are paying them. You're not going to bench a catcher you're paying 8M/yr.

As for SS..... it's very easy to say we need to make a trade for one. But where? Easier said then done.

And most teams are going to wait to make any trade, this close to the deadline, to maximize trade value. So not much Walt can do NOW.

Ltlabner
06-13-2009, 08:00 PM
To the tune of the Ballad of Billy Joe"

Willy T was signed the day my momma got of county jail.
Ltlabner promptly proclaimed the move an "epic fail."
SteelSD probably gave up maybe so did M2
and as the OPS sinks into the 5's we're asking "what can Walt Jocketty do?"

Flyer says he saw it coming and JoJo said he could see it too.
FCB's defending Walt while the rest have a "case of the goo"
OBM, SirCharles and Membengal try to save the game thread.
but with the offense so darn boring I'm afraid its already dead.

There's Dickerson, Stubbs and Heisey who all could probably man centerfield
But Dusty Baker's just refusing and on the subject he just won't yield.
Now the pitching's been doing well and the fans are hungry for a ring
and Redszone is crying out "somebody needs to do something."

Sorry. Had to do it.;)

Simply awesome. Well done.

Scrap Irony
06-13-2009, 08:52 PM
So Jockety says, basically, he's not going to do anything until Votto and perhaps EdE come back. Nobody coming up from the minors, noone available they're particularly enamored with from another team, noone on the team due to play more innings in lieu of others.

Question is, why?

Is Jocketty pointing toward 2010 and not willing to give up prospects for a quick-fix? Is he banking on the bounce-back effect of multiple slumping players coming back to reality at once? Is he hamstrung by the economy and not able to add any payroll? Is he looking to sell at the deadline rather than buy and need a reason to do so?

Cedric
06-13-2009, 09:00 PM
There is a reason Walt was ran out of St. Louis after just winning a title. They seem to have understood that the 83 game championship was just pure luck. I don't consider someone to be bullet proof based on that. His track record with the Cardinals was pretty scary at the end. I'm starting to get really worried about the next couple of years.

Falls City Beer
06-13-2009, 09:02 PM
There is a reason Walt was ran out of St. Louis after just winning a title. They seem to have understood that the 83 game championship was just pure luck. I don't consider someone to be bullet proof based on that. His track record with the Cardinals was pretty scary at the end. I'm starting to get really worried about the next couple of years.

Are you being serious?

mth123
06-13-2009, 09:11 PM
There is a reason Walt was ran out of St. Louis after just winning a title. They seem to have understood that the 83 game championship was just pure luck. I don't consider someone to be bullet proof based on that. His track record with the Cardinals was pretty scary at the end. I'm starting to get really worried about the next couple of years.

I thought I was the only one.

OnBaseMachine
06-13-2009, 10:23 PM
There is a reason Walt was ran out of St. Louis after just winning a title. They seem to have understood that the 83 game championship was just pure luck. I don't consider someone to be bullet proof based on that. His track record with the Cardinals was pretty scary at the end. I'm starting to get really worried about the next couple of years.

I agree. Walt is overrated, IMO. He may have been a good GM in the past but I have been far from impressed with him. Our last GM was far from great but I'd take him over Jocketty.

Scrap Irony
06-13-2009, 10:36 PM
And yet, Jocketty has this team within 2.5 games of first place. Or is this not his team?

Amazing what fans expect.

redsfandan
06-13-2009, 10:42 PM
Walt wouldn't be my first (or second choice) for gm but the guys that would be probably wouldn't be available. Walt is ok, not great, not terrible, just ok. My understanding was that the main reason he left St Louis was because of a difference of philosophy.

Raisor
06-13-2009, 10:44 PM
And yet, Jocketty has this team within 2.5 games of first place. Or is this not his team?

Amazing what fans expect.

or Walt has cost the Reds a 6 or 7 game lead in the division?

Sometimes the year chooses you. Yes, they are in it. It has more to do with how bad the other teams are then how good the Reds are.

Scrap Irony
06-13-2009, 10:49 PM
So not only has Jocketty not helped the team win, he's cost them the pennant?

Because, you know, they've been so good up until this year, what with that decade long string of winning records. And all of us thought they'd contend this year, too.

And if this is the year calling Cincinnati, considering the injuries to EdE, Phillips, Votto, and Volquez (twice), hang up on him and let him call someone else.

HokieRed
06-13-2009, 10:52 PM
How much can you expect a GM to do? This team needs new players at 3b, SS, LF, CF, C, and possibly RF. The 2b has to bat way out of where he should against right-handers and the 1b hasn't played in a month. The team's bad, it's dull, and the only thing we can hope is that no short-term moves will be made that will hurt our chance to be better in 2010. Most of the players mentioned as trade-bait for possible fix-it moves are, IMHO, tremendously overvalued by RZers, especially given the often ridiculous contracts they carry with them. No one is going to give us anything for Arroyo, for instance, because they're going to tell Walt they're doing him quite enough of a favor just taking the contract off his hands. Ditto for Ed. E.

redsfandan
06-13-2009, 10:52 PM
or Walt has cost the Reds a 6 or 7 game lead in the division?
It's easier (for me at least) that Dusty has cost us a couple games than Walt. It's easy to say that we need this or that but there has to be a team that can help us fill those needs at a fair price.

Cedric
06-13-2009, 11:04 PM
Dusty isn't the one who kept Darnell Mcdonald on the roster for 40 games. Dusty isn't the one who signed Willy Freakin Taveres. That signing alone is an exact sign of the short sightedness of this General Manager. Does the fact that Walt felt that Taveres was actually a good leadoff threat not scare you? Does the fact that he truly believed Willy was a good defensive CF not scare you?

The best thing about this team has absolutely nothing to do with Walt Jocketty.

redsfandan
06-13-2009, 11:17 PM
I'm just saying that Dusty is the one that gave those players so many at bats when he shouldn't have.

Raisor
06-13-2009, 11:20 PM
I'm just saying that Dusty is the one that gave those players so many at bats when he shouldn't have.

..and Walt provides those players. If Dusty can't bring himself to bench WT, then Walt needs to do it for him.

He's the boss.

Scrap Irony
06-13-2009, 11:21 PM
So they're winning despite Jocketty, then? And Darnell McDonald, the 25th man on the team for all of a quarter of the season is one of two reasons why Jocketty has lost touch? No, wait, he was lucky for, like, a decade in St. Louis. Is that right?

And Jocketty had plenty to do with the best thing on this team, if you mean the starting rotation. He's practicing Hippocratic GMing by doing no harm.

I think you and others, Cedric, have lost sight of what Jocketty is doing. He's trying to keep the young guys right, give them a chance to sink or swim, and wait until next season. He's looking for a winning record this season. If he wins the Wild Card or the pennant, great. But, he's unwilling to mortgage the future for the small chance that is this year.

If this team wins more than it loses, he deserves some serious consideration for GM of the Year.

TheNext44
06-13-2009, 11:24 PM
Dusty isn't the one who kept Darnell Mcdonald on the roster for 40 games. Dusty isn't the one who signed Willy Freakin Taveres. That signing alone is an exact sign of the short sightedness of this General Manager. Does the fact that Walt felt that Taveres was actually a good leadoff threat not scare you? Does the fact that he truly believed Willy was a good defensive CF not scare you?

The best thing about this team has absolutely nothing to do with Walt Jocketty.

I would bet that Dusty had more to do with those players being on the team than Walt. I would bet that if Dusty were not the manager, and Walt still the GM, neither player ever puts on a Reds uniform.

And Willy is a good defensive CF. His UZR is +.4 right now, which is saying that he is a league average CF on defense. That is playing good defense, to be league average at the third most difficult position on the diamond.

LoganBuck
06-13-2009, 11:24 PM
It's easier (for me at least) that Dusty has cost us a couple games than Walt. It's easy to say that we need this or that but there has to be a team that can help us fill those needs at a fair price.

Walt should be calling the shots within the players that Cincinnati controls, I refuse to believe that Dusty is taking the field with the best 25 man roster. A year ago Bob C said he was sick of the losing. This team needs a serious shake up. I would love to see a Jim Bowden style shakeup, similar to the infamous roster purge from 2003 after the ill fated trip to Puerto Rico.


The Cincinnati Reds made seven roster moves Saturday after the Montreal Expos swept a doubleheader.

Right-hander Josias Manzanillo and left-hander Jimmy Anderson were designated for assignment, meaning Cincinnati has 10 days to trade them, release them or send them outright to the minor leagues.

Infielder Brandon Larson was optioned to Triple-A Louisville, and right-handers Chris Reitsma and Jeff Austin were recalled. The Reds purchased the contracts of right-hander Brian Reith and infielder Ryan Freel from Louisville.

It didn't solve anything then, but this group of zombies need a cure for T Virus.

Cedric
06-13-2009, 11:25 PM
I would bet that Dusty had more to do with those players being on the team than Walt. I would bet that if Dusty were not the manager, and Walt still the GM, neither player ever puts on a Reds uniform.

And Willy is a good defensive CF. His UZR is +.4 right now, which is saying that he is a league average CF on defense. That is playing good defense, to be league average at the third most difficult position on the diamond.

Defensive metrics are worthless. And I'm being kind about that. Willy Taveres is a terrible defensive CF in my opinion. And yes sometimes you gotta be subjective when it comes to baseball.

traderumor
06-13-2009, 11:34 PM
Walt should be calling the shots within the players that Cincinnati controls, I refuse to believe that Dusty is taking the field with the best 25 man roster. A year ago Bob C said he was sick of the losing. This team needs a serious shake up. I would love to see a Jim Bowden style shakeup, similar to the infamous roster purge from 2003 after the ill fated trip to Puerto Rico.



It didn't solve anything then, but this group of zombies need a cure for T Virus.Gee, let's do it again then.

redsfandan
06-13-2009, 11:38 PM
..and Walt provides those players. If Dusty can't bring himself to bench WT, then Walt needs to do it for him.

He's the boss.
Not sure I see it the same way. Bob C is the boss. Walt overruling Dusty on who to play all the time well it would make things interesting but I just don't think it's completely realistic.

But, he's unwilling to mortgage the future for the small chance that is this year.
And I'd take the same stance. I want the Reds to become a contender on an annual basis. NOT just for one season.

... I would love to see a Jim Bowden style shakeup, similar to the infamous roster purge from 2003 after the ill fated trip to Puerto Rico. ...
It didn't solve anything then, but this group of zombies need a cure for T Virus.
Are people actually wishing we had Bowden instead? Seriously.

Cedric
06-13-2009, 11:39 PM
Why sign players like Willy Taveres and Arthur Rhodes if you aren't worried about winning this year. It's naive to believe that Walt was trying to get lucky this year and somehow just wait for 2010. What was supposed to change by then? It's not like we have a ton of depth in our minor league system now. I don't see any vision from Walt Jocketty.

TheNext44
06-13-2009, 11:40 PM
What do you want him to do? This is June. Teams rarely make trades in June. Last year this was the biggest trade made in June in the majors:

Detroit Tigers
Acquired RHP Kyle Pearson from the Pittsburgh Pirates in exchange for RHP Denny Bautista.

There were only three other trades, all involving cash or a PTBNL.

Walt has been very upfront and honest about his plans. He said that there is nothing available now, teams are still trying to figure out what they want to do. I believe him.

So if there are no trades, then the only option is to call someone up from the minors. The only guy in AAA who might help is Stubbs. Clearly the Reds don't think he's ready. In AA their are Helsey and Fraizer and maybe Alonso. Again, they don't appear to be ready.

I really don't want the Reds to stunt the growth and development of their top prospects just so they can see if they can be a stopgap in the majors. I want a GM who only calls up prospects when they are ready, not when the might help the big league team on a temporary basis. I believe the latter was done to Homer, and is probably why is not ready now.

Between hoping this team of misfits can hold on until Votto and EE are back, or until teams are ready start dealing, and putting the teams top prospects im the majors before they are ready, I choose, the former, no matter how frustrating it may be.

Cedric
06-13-2009, 11:41 PM
Not sure I see it the same way. Bob C is the boss. Walt overruling Dusty on who to play all the time well it would make things interesting but I just don't think it's completely realistic.

And I'd take the same stance. I want the Reds to become a contender on an annual basis. NOT just for one season.

Are people actually wishing we had Bowden instead? Seriously.

Dusty shouldn't have been allowed to play Darnell Mcdonald or Willy Taveres. You really think that Willy Taveres playing isn't coming for Walt Jocketty? You can't expect Dusty to sit someone making the cash Taveres does. If he bails on Taveres now it will only look worse for Walt Jocketty. That's all on the GM.

Cedric
06-13-2009, 11:43 PM
What do you want him to do? This is June. Teams rarely make trades in June. Last year this was the biggest trade made in June in the majors:

Detroit Tigers
Acquired RHP Kyle Pearson from the Pittsburgh Pirates in exchange for RHP Denny Bautista.

There were only three other trades, all involving cash or a PTBNL.

Walt has been very upfront and honest about his plans. He said that there is nothing available now, teams are still trying to figure out what they want to do. I believe him.

So if there are no trades, then the only option is to call someone up from the minors. The only guy in AAA who might help is Stubbs. Clearly the Reds don't think he's ready. In AA their are Helsey and Fraizer and maybe Alonso. Again, they don't appear to be ready.

I really don't want the Reds to stunt the growth and development of their top prospects just so they can see if they can be a stopgap in the majors. I want a GM who only calls up prospects when they are ready, not when the might help the big league team on a temporary basis. I believe the latter was done to Homer, and is probably why is not ready now.

Between hoping this team of misfits can hold on until Votto and EE are back, or until teams are ready start dealing, and putting the teams top prospects im the majors before they are ready, I choose, the former, no matter how frustrating it may be.

And yet they brought up Homer for one start this year. That's unfair pressure and not very smart, IMO. This team of "misfits" is solely the fault of Walt Jocketty. The two biggest "misfits" to grace this roster this season were players directly signed by Walt Jocketty. What exactly is his vision for next season? Wait for our HUGE crop of minor leaguers to save the day? We have very little depth in our system.

TheNext44
06-13-2009, 11:44 PM
Defensive metrics are worthless. And I'm being kind about that. Willy Taveres is a terrible defensive CF in my opinion. And yes sometimes you gotta be subjective when it comes to baseball.

Okay then, subjectively, I think you are dead wrong, and from what I have seen with my eyes, he is a solid defensive CF. He gets bad jumps on the ball sometimes, but mostly can use his speed to make up for it.

He gets to most balls, makes most plays, hustles, and has a solid arm. I can remember more plays where I was amazed that he made it, than plays that he has botched.

I believe you when you say that in your eyes, he looks like a terrible CF. I just don't seem him that way, subjectively.

Cedric
06-13-2009, 11:47 PM
Okay then, subjectively, I think you are dead wrong, and from what I have seen with my eyes, he is a solid defensive CF. He gets bad jumps on the ball sometimes, but mostly can use his speed to make up for it.

He gets to most balls, makes most plays, hustles, and has a solid arm. I can remember more plays where I was amazed that he made it, than plays that he has botched.

I believe you when you say that in your eyes, he looks like a terrible CF. I just don't seem him that way, subjectively.

That's fine. I think if you ask front office people from Houston and Colorado they would agree with me. He was pathetic in Colorado defensively. And that ballpark will seperate the best from the rest.

LoganBuck
06-13-2009, 11:48 PM
Gee, let's do it again then.

They seem to have mastered doing things over and over, that have no reason, so why not?:thumbup:

I just can't take this. They are wasting so much pitching talent. I don't want to look back four years from now, and see the young pitching wasted, like Mario Soto. It is fleeting. Teams like the Reds won't be able to hold on to what they have. The window is open now. To pretend otherwise is crazy.

RedLegSuperStar
06-13-2009, 11:48 PM
I think there is players out their the Reds have looked into.. just the opposing team isn't willing to deal yet. It isn't even mid-June yet. I don't think anyone is dealing until the end of June or early July.

I would like to see these internal moves first:
- Adam Rosales demoted; DFA Mike Lincoln; recall Todd Frazier
- DL Willy Taveras; outright Ramon Ramirez; recall Drew Stubbs

Stubbs and Dickerson would share time in CF and Frazier can play all over. Mostly 1st and 3rd while both Votto and Edwin are injured.

Cedric
06-13-2009, 11:52 PM
Stubbs and Frazier are both going to have to come up soon. Hitters don't get called up to early. If you have good plate discipline you can make it at almost anytime.

TheNext44
06-13-2009, 11:54 PM
And yet they brought up Homer for one start this year. That's unfair pressure and not very smart, IMO. This team of "misfits" is solely the fault of Walt Jocketty. The two biggest "misfits" to grace this roster this season were players directly signed by Walt Jocketty. What exactly is his vision for next season? Wait for our HUGE crop of minor leaguers to save the day? We have very little depth in our system.

Yep, it's Walt's fault that Votto is on the DL, forcing the Reds to play a catcher at first and start a backup. It's Walt's fault that EE is hurt, forcing the Reds to play Hairston and Rosales, two fine backup players, in starting roles. It is Walt's fault that Bruce is slumping. It definitely is all Walt's fault.

And the last line is completely false. The Reds have great depth in their minor league system. They lack top of the line prospects, but have great depth. Next year, they will have Frazier, Alonso, Stubbs, Valaika, Heisley, Francisco, Cozart, Dorn, Sutton, and maybe Soto ready to play in the majors. Not everyone will perform, but I like the odds of at least one, and hopefully two of them being solid producers at for the major league team by this time next year. And in two years, three or four of them.

redsfandan
06-13-2009, 11:54 PM
Defensive metrics are worthless. And I'm being kind about that. Willy Taveres is a terrible defensive CF in my opinion. And yes sometimes you gotta be subjective when it comes to baseball.
Worthless? Really? I think errors are overrated if that's all you look at but the other metrics are meant to be improved ways to measure defensive ability. But worthless huh. If you say so.

Why sign players like Willy Taveres and Arthur Rhodes if you aren't worried about winning this year. It's naive to believe that Walt was trying to get lucky this year and somehow just wait for 2010. What was supposed to change by then? It's not like we have a ton of depth in our minor league system now. I don't see any vision from Walt Jocketty.
Ok so now the Tavares signing was because we wanted to contend this year? I always thought he was, more or less, someone that could help man center until Stubbs was up.

Dusty shouldn't have been allowed to play Darnell Mcdonald or Willy Taveres. You really think that Willy Taveres playing isn't coming for Walt Jocketty? You can't expect Dusty to sit someone making the cash Taveres does. If he bails on Taveres now it will only look worse for Walt Jocketty. That's all on the GM.Well I'm not one that's saying that we should just cut bait on WilyT. But it just doesn't make sense to me to start him when he's not healthy.

And yet they brought up Homer for one start this year. That's unfair pressure and not very smart, IMO. This team of "misfits" is solely the fault of Walt Jocketty. The two biggest "misfits" to grace this roster this season were players directly signed by Walt Jocketty. What exactly is his vision for next season? Wait for our HUGE crop of minor leaguers to save the day? We have very little depth in our system.
Sounds like Walts #1 fan to me.
Very little depth in our system?? Cmon.

LoganBuck
06-13-2009, 11:55 PM
Are people actually wishing we had Bowden instead? Seriously.

Not at all, but you can bet he wouldn't be asleep at the switch. Every now and then, teams need a shakeup. It can be as simple as ditching one player, or as complicated as a series of moves. I am worried they are on the precipice.

reds44
06-13-2009, 11:55 PM
I think there is players out their the Reds have looked into.. just the opposing team isn't willing to deal yet. It isn't even mid-June yet. I don't think anyone is dealing until the end of June or early July.

I would like to see these internal moves first:
- Adam Rosales demoted; DFA Mike Lincoln; recall Todd Frazier
- DL Willy Taveras; outright Ramon Ramirez; recall Drew Stubbs

Stubbs and Dickerson would share time in CF and Frazier can play all over. Mostly 1st and 3rd while both Votto and Edwin are injured.
Yeah, Stubbs and Frazier seem like the most likely callups at this point if they were to go that way. Frazier can play 1B and 3B until both Votto and Edwin return, and if he hits well enough to stick could take over full time in LF when they both return.

Dickerson/Stubbs CF
Hanigan C
Phillips 2B
Bruce RF
Nix/Gomes LF
Frazier 3B
Hernandez 1B
Gonzalez SS

would be my lineup, or something close to that.

Scrap Irony
06-13-2009, 11:56 PM
In 2010, Stubbs is ready to take over in CF, with Heisey in the wings. Dorn is a solid LH PH option with an outside shot at improving enough to play meaningful innings as a LF.
Frazier is likely ready as either a 3b or LF.
Alonso is close to ready at 1b.
Cozart is ready at SS.
Bailey and Maloney are ready to be fifth starters, with Wood, Stewart, and Leake in the wings if a starter or two (or three or four) falter.
Roenicke, Herrera, Burton, Fisher, and Viola all have more innings under their belt and are better prepared for the rigors of major league life.
Bruce also probably gets a bit better as well, or at least more consistent.

None of this mentions the likely improvement of both Volquez and Cueto as they mature into top of the rotation horses able to pitch rather than throw.

Both Weathers and Rhodes should still be effective, or at least as effective as they've shown over the past few years. And, if not, it's not like there aren't options.

In other words, that depth you don't think exists will be ready to provide the help you desperately want this year.

And, as to the shot about the signing of Rhodes, you do know that's a two-year deal, right? And 2010 is the second year. And it's not like he's been horrible this year. In fact, you could argue that all but two of Jocketty's FA signings have had a positive effect on the won/loss record in 2009.

Cedric
06-14-2009, 12:00 AM
Jocketty is at fault for the lack of depth on this team. It's his fault for not pushing Taveres to the DL. Willy Taveres isn't good with two healthy legs. Why is he playing with a bum leg?

All you need to know about this organization is the Darnell Mcdonald and Willy Taveres situation. Sorry if that sounds like a broken record, but it's true. Even the casual Reds fan realized that Gomes for Mcdonald should have happened about 40 games before Walt did. And the casual Reds fan would never have even picked up the phone for Willy Taveres.

It's fairly obvious to me that our favorite team is being run by outdated men. Is it too much to ask for a General Manager with some vision? It's been the same sad philosophy for too long around here.

redsfandan
06-14-2009, 12:03 AM
Not at all, but you can bet he wouldn't be asleep at the switch. Every now and then, teams need a shakeup. It can be as simple as ditching one player, or as complicated as a series of moves. I am worried they are on the precipice.
Almost sounds like some people would like WK to come back to make another big desperation trade. And no I don't think Krivsky stunk as a gm overall but rushing to make a deal in the hope that we'll be able to contend THIS year would be a mistake Imo.

LoganBuck
06-14-2009, 12:04 AM
Yep, it's Walt's fault that Votto is on the DL, forcing the Reds to play a catcher at first and start a backup. It's Walt's fault that EE is hurt, forcing the Reds to play Hairston and Rosales, two fine backup players, in starting roles. It is Walt's fault that Bruce is slumping. It definitely is all Walt's fault.


It is Walt's fault that they don't have a backup third baseman or a backup first baseman. It is Walt's fault that they signed Lincoln and Taveras, to two year contracts, and are trying to force that to work. Wayne Krivsky was criticized, and some say fired because he had to ask BobC to eat too many contracts. None of those contracts add up to what it WILL cost to get rid of Lincoln and Taveras.

Ron Madden
06-14-2009, 12:05 AM
Walt should have done something during the offseason.

;)

Cedric
06-14-2009, 12:07 AM
I'm quite sick of waiting for next year and the next crop of "stud" minor leaguers.

This organization isn't void of true talent on the farm. But it's not brimming with amazing talent like people on Redszone think. That's just what fans tell themselves so they can dream about next year. Almost every publication that reviews organizations for a living agrees that the Reds are lacking in depth of talent on the farm. That's reasonable enough though considering the young players the Reds have brought up the last two years.

The only thing I like about this new staff is how they are willing to spend money later in drafts to try and build up the farm. Right now though the Reds are still weak at the farm.

LoganBuck
06-14-2009, 12:10 AM
Almost sounds like some people would like WK to come back to make another big desperation trade. And no I don't think Krivsky stunk as a gm overall but rushing to make a deal in the hope that we'll be able to contend THIS year would be a mistake Imo.

It isn't desperation to provide water to a man dying of thirst. It is common sense. I am not talking about cobbling together some over priced trade for a Mark Derosa. Find a match with a team that has similar goals, that matches up. The best trades work for both teams. The Angels are desperate for any and all young pitching, they have a surplus of SS options. Make a trade.

redsfandan
06-14-2009, 12:13 AM
... Almost every publication that reviews organizations for a living agrees that the Reds are lacking in depth of talent on the farm. ...
Which publications are you talking about? I ask cuz I've had the opinion that depth is one thing our farm system has.

Cedric
06-14-2009, 12:16 AM
It isn't desperation to provide water to a man dying of thirst. It is common sense. I am not talking about cobbling together some over priced trade for a Mark Derosa. Find a match with a team that has similar goals, that matches up. The best trades work for both teams. The Angels are desperate for any and all young pitching, they have a surplus of SS options. Make a trade.

People will say that's unrealistic. That's the sickness that pervades fans of this organization. Vision is signing "fast, scrappy players" and waiting for the next overrated crop of minor league hitters. There are very few high ceiling players in Louisville that will man the most important positions on our roster.

True vision would be doing what you said. It's not going to happen, IMO.

Patrick Bateman
06-14-2009, 12:16 AM
I think Cedric has hit the nail on the head int his thread. The Reds clearly had/have an opportunity to do something this year. Jocketty inherited most of the pieces that make that possible. The bulk of his acquisitions have meant little in the grand scheme of things. He's hit on the bullpen pieces, but at the same time, there are some major flaws in the line-up mainly due to a poor job of acquiring depth and getting players that fill particular roles. LF for an example was not a hard spot to fill in the offseason, yet we go into the year with Darnell McDonald, Jerry Hairston, and Chris Dickerson logging at-bats in left. Now, Dickerson is a decent player, but what value he has is completely wasted by being used in left. Instead Jocketty went out of his way to replace him in the lineup with an inferior player, which continues to be a problem 50 games into the season.

There's simply no excuse for having such dreck getting at-bats, let alone being a fixture in the line-up. Having even useable players, not even average, would go a long way to helping this team. It's not an especially difficult task, and from where I sit, I don't think a very good effort has gone into fixing some really glaring holes on the roster, that could be improved very easily.

LoganBuck
06-14-2009, 12:47 AM
There's simply no excuse for having such dreck getting at-bats, let alone being a fixture in the line-up. Having even useable players, not even average, would go a long way to helping this team. It's not an especially difficult task, and from where I sit, I don't think a very good effort has gone into fixing some really glaring holes on the roster, that could be improved very easily.

Bingo. I posted the VORPs of some of the main offenders, going into tonight's game. Replacement level would be a dramatic improvement at SS, CF, and wherever Adam Rosales is playing. Even worse is stacking them in the lineup. It makes the rest of the lineup that much worse.

Scrap Irony
06-14-2009, 01:04 AM
You complain about the depth, yet don't realize that that depth is now starting due to injuries. Rosales, Gomes, Nix, Hanigan, and Hairston are all subs that have (or have had) to start now due to injury.

It's not like you can have All Stars at every position. Some are meant to be placeholders until better options arrive.

And yes, some of those options are from the farm. And every publication I've seen has extolled the virtues of Cincinnati farm depth. I don't know if you're being purposefully confrontational or are truly ignorant of the minor league system, but most prognosticators believe the Reds have great depth, but no true top-notch All Star talent.

And "true vision" isn't making a deal for a deal's sake. If that were the case, Jim Bowden would be a HOF GM.

The "fast, scrappy" player myth is an argument for another thread as well. Certainly no one on this thread mentioned that particular brand of player until you. No one is saying anything about needing more of that particular type of player. Some are, however, preaching patience.

Look, Votto's questionable for the rest of the season. So is EdE. Volquez's dueling twinges aren't good predictors of future success this season. That's three of your six or seven best players on the shelf for a month. No team can compete with that.
The Yankees couldn't. The Cardinals couldn't. The Red Sox couldn't.

No team has that amount of depth.

But hey, it's easy to complain and give nebulous answers about supposed deals that are easy to improve the team and blame all the GM, the manager, the "casual" fans, and whatever else you can think of for this team's struggles.

It happens. Just ask Forrest Gump.

Patrick Bateman
06-14-2009, 01:46 AM
You complain about the depth, yet don't realize that that depth is now starting due to injuries. Rosales, Gomes, Nix, Hanigan, and Hairston are all subs that have (or have had) to start now due to injury.


We have 4 guys in the line-up currently posting negative VORPS. That's not depth, that's just bad baseball players.

Depth is having guys who can fill in and not make a complete fool of themseleves. The Reds don't have that, and in a few positions, didn't even have that in the starting line-up to begin with.

I don't think it's at all unreasonable to expect better than replacement level.

fearofpopvol1
06-14-2009, 01:52 AM
We have 4 guys in the line-up currently posting negative VORPS. That's not depth, that's just bad baseball players.

Depth is having guys who can fill in and not make a complete fool of themseleves. The Reds don't have that, and in a few positions, didn't even have that in the starting line-up to begin with.

I don't think it's at all unreasonable to expect better than replacement level.

In all fairness...the key really is "currently." I know some of them stink and shouldn't be here to begin with, but some of those guys are definitely better than their numbers currently show.

Patrick Bateman
06-14-2009, 01:57 AM
In all fairness...the key really is "currently." I know some of them stink and shouldn't be here to begin with, but some of those guys are definitely better than their numbers currently show.

I don't know, maybe marginally better because they are at rock bottom. But Gonzalez, Rosales, Taveras? I'm not holding my breath on these guys doing much of anything. And Hernandez getting at-bats at first is a tad silly.

fearofpopvol1
06-14-2009, 02:03 AM
I don't know, maybe marginally better because they are at rock bottom. But Gonzalez, Rosales, Taveras? I'm not holding my breath on these guys doing much of anything. And Hernandez getting at-bats at first is a tad silly.

Taveras' numbers will get better. Career numbers indicate he's better than what he's been as of late. Gonzo...at least his defense is sound. He's been quite good with the glove this year...but Dusty batting him 2nd is an absolute joke. He should be batting 7th or 8th. I'd like to see Janish get so more opportunities though or for Dusty to put Hairston at SS more often. Hernandez is only getting those bats at 1B because Votto is out. It won't continue much longer. Rosales...can't argue too much about him. He's not starter material.

mth123
06-14-2009, 02:48 AM
I think Cedric has hit the nail on the head int his thread. The Reds clearly had/have an opportunity to do something this year. Jocketty inherited most of the pieces that make that possible. The bulk of his acquisitions have meant little in the grand scheme of things. He's hit on the bullpen pieces, but at the same time, there are some major flaws in the line-up mainly due to a poor job of acquiring depth and getting players that fill particular roles. LF for an example was not a hard spot to fill in the offseason, yet we go into the year with Darnell McDonald, Jerry Hairston, and Chris Dickerson logging at-bats in left. Now, Dickerson is a decent player, but what value he has is completely wasted by being used in left. Instead Jocketty went out of his way to replace him in the lineup with an inferior player, which continues to be a problem 50 games into the season.

There's simply no excuse for having such dreck getting at-bats, let alone being a fixture in the line-up. Having even useable players, not even average, would go a long way to helping this team. It's not an especially difficult task, and from where I sit, I don't think a very good effort has gone into fixing some really glaring holes on the roster, that could be improved very easily.

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