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View Full Version : Justin Inaz on Reds Defense



TheNext44
06-08-2009, 04:33 PM
http://www.basement-dwellers.com/2009/06/2002-2009-reds-defense-graphically.html

Great stuff as usual from Justin.

It's full of charts, so I don't know how to post those up here. If someone does, please do.

Basically it breaks down by position how the Reds have done defensively since 2002. In the charts, Red is very bad, Blue is very good. From 2002-08, there was lots of Red. This year is almost all blue.

He extrapolated 2009 based on the first 53 games of this year. Last year the Reds had a -42 bUZR. This year, they are on pace for a +55bUZR.
That a difference of 97 more plays made this year than last year.

Who knows how accurate bUZR is, but even if it is just 75% accurate, that's still 72 more plays. And if Tango is right and each missed play is worth .8 runs, that means the Reds will save at least 58 runs on defense this year, over last. That's close to 6 wins. If it's 90% accurate, that 70 runs, or 7 wins. That's like adding Hanley Rameriz.

WOW.

VR
06-08-2009, 04:40 PM
Scary.

nate
06-08-2009, 07:07 PM
I think OBM linked to it earlier as well. The little graphics are VERY informative; they say a lot with a simple picture!

Interesting analysis, TN44...I agree. The defense has been leagues better. Fangraphs has a stat where they track the difference between FIP and ERA and, last I checked, the Reds defense was one of the top "helpers" to the pitching in all of baseball. Number one, I believe, was the Brewers.

Mario-Rijo
06-08-2009, 07:44 PM
I think OBM linked to it earlier as well. The little graphics are VERY informative; they say a lot with a simple picture!

Interesting analysis, TN44...I agree. The defense has been leagues better. Fangraphs has a stat where they track the difference between FIP and ERA and, last I checked, the Reds defense was one of the top "helpers" to the pitching in all of baseball. Number one, I believe, was the Brewers.

Yet another reason to wonder if they can hang around. They have worse pitching than us IMO and a bit worse defense. If we could make just a few solid moves we are capable of beating them.

BTW I can't seem to open the page with internet explorer, anyone have any tips?

Highlifeman21
06-08-2009, 08:02 PM
Yet another reason to wonder if they can hang around. They have worse pitching than us IMO and a bit worse defense. If we could make just a few solid moves we are capable of beating them.

BTW I can't seem to open the page with internet explorer, anyone have any tips?

Clear your cache

If that doesn't work, use Mozilla

JinAZ
06-08-2009, 09:31 PM
Thanks for the link. The fielding diagrams aren't my idea, but I love the contrast between what we saw 2003-2008, and what we've seen at least so far this year.

FWIW, based on the ranking stuff I do at BtB, I have the Reds 13th in the league on offense (wOBA*), 9th in the league in pitching (tRA), and 3rd in the league in fielding (combination of bUZR & THT's team fielding stat). I don't think it's an exaggeration to say that the biggest reason for the Reds success so far this year is their fielding.
-j

JinAZ
06-08-2009, 09:39 PM
He extrapolated 2009 based on the first 53 games of this year. Last year the Reds had a -42 bUZR. This year, they are on pace for a +55bUZR.
That a difference of 97 more plays made this year than last year.

Who knows how accurate bUZR is, but even if it is just 75% accurate, that's still 72 more plays. And if Tango is right and each missed play is worth .8 runs, that means the Reds will save at least 58 runs on defense this year, over last. That's close to 6 wins. If it's 90% accurate, that 70 runs, or 7 wins. That's like adding Hanley Rameriz.

WOW.

Minor correction: bUZR is aleady given in units of runs. So if we had zero error (which we do not), we're talking a 10-win improvement due to fielding. Part of that, of course, is negated by lost offense this year, but still...

I do think it's reasonable to regress this year's data by at least 60% or so given the sample size (i.e. +55 = +22 runs). But even so...just being above-average is a huge improvement over what we've seen 2003 onward. And check out 2005!
-j

Ron Madden
06-09-2009, 02:33 AM
But... but... Marty and Thom say Fielding Percentage and Errors tell us all we need to know about defense.

Don't you know it's against the law to disagree with Marty in Reds Country?

;)

TheNext44
06-09-2009, 02:47 AM
Minor correction: bUZR is aleady given in units of runs. So if we had zero error (which we do not), we're talking a 10-win improvement due to fielding. Part of that, of course, is negated by lost offense this year, but still...

I do think it's reasonable to regress this year's data by at least 60% or so given the sample size (i.e. +55 = +22 runs). But even so...just being above-average is a huge improvement over what we've seen 2003 onward. And check out 2005!
-j


Thanks for the correction. I am very new to the defensive metrics. I should have looked it up before saying anything. Glad to see I was wrong on the conservative side.

Keep up the great work and stop being so modest. :thumbup: