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View Full Version : Willy Taveras or Chris Dickerson in CF?



fearofpopvol1
06-10-2009, 08:39 PM
Who to start?

I can understand why Dusty won't start Dickerson against lefties. He's never really been awesome against lefties. But against righties?? I don't get it.

Dickerson's defense is SIGNIFICANTLY better, his plate discipline is much better, his power is a lot better. And I'm talking CF...where Dickerson's defense is above average.

It must be the contract Willy has that gives him precedence.

Raisor
06-10-2009, 09:05 PM
Who to start?

I can understand why Dusty won't start Dickerson against lefties. He's never really been awesome against lefties. But against righties?? I don't get it.

.

In 41 career PA's vs LHP, Dickerson has an OBP of .375.

Small sample size sure, but way better then WT's .317 vs LHP.

Dickerson should be starting in CF every game.

OnBaseMachine
06-10-2009, 09:07 PM
Taveras might be the worst starting position player in baseball. I honestly can't think of a worse player off the top of my head.

Dickerson should start in CF. I'd try my best to trade Taveras, though I doubt anyone wants him. If that's the case, he becomes the fifth outfielder.

corkedbat
06-10-2009, 09:12 PM
Dickerson against RH's, Stubbs against lefties and send Willie somewhere he can hit against our staff as many times as possible.

fearofpopvol1
06-10-2009, 09:42 PM
In 41 career PA's vs LHP, Dickerson has an OBP of .375.

Small sample size sure, but way better then WT's .317 vs LHP.

Dickerson should be starting in CF every game.

His minor league stats don't favor that OBP against lefties. I think he's 1 for 11 or 12 or something like that too? I can understand using Willy against lefties.

Sea Ray
06-10-2009, 09:49 PM
For now Dickerson should get the nod because Willy is lost. I was fine with starting Willy early, especially when he was hot but now it's lunacy for Dusty to keep playing him. This is a test of Dusty's managerial skills. Will he let his "loyalty" hurt this team?

RedsManRick
06-10-2009, 10:42 PM
This really isn't a debate. Taveras has proven over 1000's of at bats that's he not a very productive offensive player. Dickerson, in his limited opportunity, has played well. Defensively, they're comparable.

OnBaseMachine
06-10-2009, 10:46 PM
This really isn't a debate. Taveras has proven over 1000's of at bats that's he not a very productive offensive player. Dickerson, in his limited opportunity, has played well. Defensively, they're comparable.

I disagree. I think Dickerson is a much, much better defender. Unlike Taveras, he gets great jumps and takes nice routes. UZR (and my eyes) absolutely love Dickerson in CF.

Kc61
06-10-2009, 10:55 PM
More criticism of Taveras? He can't hit, his bad routes, it's hard to believe how fans can just repeat these criticisms of this player time and again.

Taveras can be effective when his legs are working at full strength. He was effective in April, ineffective in May. His issues are obvious.

The Reds made a decision in the off season that he could enhance the team by virtue of his particular skills. In May, Taveras went into a deep slump and he hasn't come out of it. And, to make matters worse, he got hurt.

Having signed him, and desirous of making his abilities work for them, the Reds are now trying him again. They figure if he's healthy he might come out of the slump soon and they want to give him that opportunity.

The Reds didn't stick with Corey Patterson forever, they didn't play him due to loyalty, they sent him down and he only played for them again when the team was shorthanded due to trades and injuries. If Taveras continues his slump, he'll be benched as well.

Meanwhile, again tonight, the team isn't hitting, it has three hits in nine innings against Nationals pitching. Taveras is one guy. Nobody else is hitting very much either.

flyer85
06-10-2009, 11:27 PM
I assume this is a rhetorical question

wheels
06-10-2009, 11:29 PM
More criticism of Taveras? He can't hit, his bad routes, it's hard to believe how fans can just repeat these criticisms of this player time and again.

Taveras can be effective when his legs are working at full strength. He was effective in April, ineffective in May. His issues are obvious.

The Reds made a decision in the off season that he could enhance the team by virtue of his particular skills. In May, Taveras went into a deep slump and he hasn't come out of it. And, to make matters worse, he got hurt.

Having signed him, and desirous of making his abilities work for them, the Reds are now trying him again. They figure if he's healthy he might come out of the slump soon and they want to give him that opportunity.

The Reds didn't stick with Corey Patterson forever, they didn't play him due to loyalty, they sent him down and he only played for them again when the team was shorthanded due to trades and injuries. If Taveras continues his slump, he'll be benched as well.

Meanwhile, again tonight, the team isn't hitting, it has three hits in nine innings against Nationals pitching. Taveras is one guy. Nobody else is hitting very much either.

For the most part, you've been spot on about everything this season.

This analysis, however, I cannot agree with.

In fact, I don't know if I've ever disagreed with you more about anything. I mean that with the upmost respect.

I'm actually a little shocked.

Seriously. Your best argument FOR Willy Taveras is that others haven't hit?

Holy cow.

You can do WAYYYY better than that.

That might say all that needs to be said about one Corey Taveras.

KronoRed
06-11-2009, 01:32 AM
The answer today is the same as it was before Taveras was sign..Dickerson.

mbgrayson
06-11-2009, 02:06 AM
2009 stats:

Taveras: 209 PAs, .250/.307/.315 for an OPS of .622. 1 HR, 12 of 15 in SBs. UZR is .4

Dickerson: 145 PAs, .246/.375/.364 for an OPS of .739. 2 HR, 2 of 4 in SBs. UZR is 4.3 (for CF).

FWIW, one 2008 stat to compare with:
Corey Patterson: 392 PAs, .205/.238/.344 for an OPS of .582. 10 HRs, 14 of 23 in SBs. UZR was .4

I can't help but wonder how Dickerson would do playing more often again. He had that terrible slump to start the year, but he is hitting .302 the last month, bringing his average up from .197 to .246. UZR shows that he is a very strong ceneter fielder too. Trade Willy T.....

acredsfan
06-11-2009, 02:17 AM
I'm all for giving more playing time to Dickerson, but let's not be too quick to trade Willy Taveras. Yeah, he may not be an outstanding player, but I'm not willing to place all of my trust in the rookie just yet. People can argue all they want about how Willy isn't as good of a hitter, but Dickerson hasn't proven crap yet. He's had one decent month at the plate this year, but his average is still under .250. He went through a spell where he swung at everything, but his OBP is a decent .375. Still, way too soon to declare him the answer in CF for the season. Knee jerk reactions are a terrible way to run a franchise. Let's remember that many people were calling for Dickerson to sit when Nix was showing promise in LF.

I'm in no way implying that Willy will be the answer in CF, but at the very least he's got the experience to take the job back over if Dickerson would faulter. CF is one of the areas that Walt should look to upgrade, but honestly it's rare to find a CFer who can play offense and defense.

reds44
06-11-2009, 02:19 AM
If you are going to judge Chris Dickerson off his batting average you will never be happy with him as a player.

Ron Madden
06-11-2009, 02:34 AM
I'm all for giving more playing time to Dickerson, but let's not be too quick to trade Willy Taveras. Yeah, he may not be an outstanding player, but I'm not willing to place all of my trust in the rookie just yet. People can argue all they want about how Willy isn't as good of a hitter, but Dickerson hasn't proven crap yet. He's had one decent month at the plate this year, but his average is still under .250. He went through a spell where he swung at everything, but his OBP is a decent .375. Still, way too soon to declare him the answer in CF for the season. Knee jerk reactions are a terrible way to run a franchise. Let's remember that many people were calling for Dickerson to sit when Nix was showing promise in LF.

I'm in no way implying that Willy will be the answer in CF, but at the very least he's got the experience to take the job back over if Dickerson would faulter. CF is one of the areas that Walt should look to upgrade, but honestly it's rare to find a CFer who can play offense and defense.


So you would rather stick with a player like Taveras, who has proven to be unproductive rather than take a chance on Dickerson... because you think that he might suck too?

:confused:

TheNext44
06-11-2009, 02:45 AM
First, I was upset when the Reds signed Taveras. Never understood the signing, with Dickerson already on the team.

I hope that Dusty will start Dickerson in CF for the rest of the season.

But I will make this absurd prediction. If Taveras does start the rest of the season (or at least platoons ) he will finish the season with an OBP of around .350.
He just needs to bunt more and hit the ball on the ground more, and he will get on base. He is well below his career averages for GB/FB, BUH, and IFH.

I have faith that Jocketty, Jacoby and Baker will make sure he does that correct those, or make sure that he does not start.

Ron Madden
06-11-2009, 02:51 AM
But I will make this absurd prediction. If Taveras does start the rest of the season (or at least platoons ) he will finish the season with an OBP of around .350.

I hope you are right but I don't think so. (I'd acually bet against it)

Willie Taveras is Willie Taveras.

TheNext44
06-11-2009, 03:02 AM
I hope you are right but I don't think so. (I'd acually bet against it)

Willie Taveras is Willie Taveras.


Well, it you think that, then you should think that he will finish with an OBP of .329, which means that he will OBP around .360 the rest of the way. Which is basically my point.

Right now, due to an 0-19 slump (Pujols just had an 0-16 slump) he is off of his career numbers. I think if he gets enough playing time, they will come back to his norm.

However, even if he did do that, I would still want Dickerson over him.

Ron Madden
06-11-2009, 03:10 AM
Well, it you think that, then you should think that he will finish with an OBP of .329, which means that he will OBP around .360 the rest of the way. Which is basically my point.

Right now, due to an 0-19 slump (Pujols just had an 0-16 slump) he is off of his career numbers. I think if he gets enough playing time, they will come back to his norm.

However, even if he did do that, I would still want Dickerson over him.


Like I said, I hope you are right.

No offense (pardon the pun) but I'd bet Taveras ends up with an OBP of less than .350 for the 2009 season.

;)

Kc61
06-11-2009, 08:32 AM
For the most part, you've been spot on about everything this season.

This analysis, however, I cannot agree with.

In fact, I don't know if I've ever disagreed with you more about anything. I mean that with the upmost respect.

I'm actually a little shocked.

Seriously. Your best argument FOR Willy Taveras is that others haven't hit?

Holy cow.

You can do WAYYYY better than that.

That might say all that needs to be said about one Corey Taveras.

I'm not arguing for WT. I'm just saying that the knocks on him are obvious and are just repeated on here, time and again in thread after thread. I'm also saying that if his offensive woes continue, I'm confident the Reds will bench him.

At least he's played good defense -- and that point I will argue if others disagree. Every defensive measure I've seen shows that he has been good defensively this year.

I'm also saying that the team's offensive woes go way beyond Willy Taveras.

How about some threads criticizing the others with low OBPs or miniscule slugging percentages. Just to break things up a little.

cumberlandreds
06-11-2009, 08:39 AM
This is easy. Its Dickerson. Taveras is just not a smart player. Just look at his AB on Tuesday night after Ceuto walks on 4 pitches. Instead of actually making a pitcher throw a strike he immediatley swings at two pitches that are clearly out of the strike zone. To me that shows a very low baseball IQ. Dickerson is no great player either but is clearly a better choice at the moment.

lollipopcurve
06-11-2009, 09:23 AM
Gotta be Dickerson at this point -- he's shown he can defend in CF, and his plate approach is much better than WT's. It remains to be seen whether Baker can actually bring himself to bench Taveras.

Tony Cloninger
06-11-2009, 09:28 AM
I would rather have Gary Redus and Eddie Mllner ...right now over WT and JHJ.

Janish over AG.

I would sit Bruce against more LH....not all but just some, at least.

OnBaseMachine
06-11-2009, 10:46 AM
From Lance's blog:

Forget leadoff, I would ask you if Taveras should even be the CF? I know Dusty gets irriated by talk of playing the "hot hand". I can only point out the facts. This team struggles to get runnners on base.
If you can't get on, you can't get over and you can't get in.
Willy Taveras: BA .243, OBP .300, OPS .606
Chris Dickerson: BA .244, OBP .373, OPS .734
Taveras is hitless in his last 20 ab's and 1 for his last 25
Dickerson is hitting .308 in his last 12 starts
And consider this from emailer Jeff:
Wily Taveras had 14 game hitting streak between 4/29-5/13.
Taveras during 14 games streak: 24-59 .407 avg Reds go 10-4
Taveras in other 44 games: 22-130 .169 avg Reds are 21-23
Maybe it's simply the hamstring still bothering Taveras...fine.
Play Dickerson til he shows you he should sit. He showed the glove over the weekend. He's a much better CF than LF. Wayne Krivsky always said that. If he has the glove and he's getting on-base. And your "team" is about pitching, speed and defense, what's the downside to playing Dickerson for now?

http://www.1530homer.com/pages/lancesBlog.html

fearofpopvol1
06-11-2009, 11:26 AM
From Lance's blog:

Forget leadoff, I would ask you if Taveras should even be the CF? I know Dusty gets irriated by talk of playing the "hot hand". I can only point out the facts. This team struggles to get runnners on base.
If you can't get on, you can't get over and you can't get in.
Willy Taveras: BA .243, OBP .300, OPS .606
Chris Dickerson: BA .244, OBP .373, OPS .734
Taveras is hitless in his last 20 ab's and 1 for his last 25
Dickerson is hitting .308 in his last 12 starts
And consider this from emailer Jeff:
Wily Taveras had 14 game hitting streak between 4/29-5/13.
Taveras during 14 games streak: 24-59 .407 avg Reds go 10-4
Taveras in other 44 games: 22-130 .169 avg Reds are 21-23
Maybe it's simply the hamstring still bothering Taveras...fine.
Play Dickerson til he shows you he should sit. He showed the glove over the weekend. He's a much better CF than LF. Wayne Krivsky always said that. If he has the glove and he's getting on-base. And your "team" is about pitching, speed and defense, what's the downside to playing Dickerson for now?

http://www.1530homer.com/pages/lancesBlog.html

Hard to disagree with this. That dive play Taveras made last night that turned into a triple made me wince.

bucksfan2
06-11-2009, 11:29 AM
Hard to disagree with this. That dive play Taveras made last night that turned into a triple made me wince.

IMO it was a double that Taveras played into a triple. I don't think the cuts the ball off before the wall regardless.

fearofpopvol1
06-11-2009, 11:37 AM
IMO it was a double that Taveras played into a triple. I don't think the cuts the ball off before the wall regardless.

He got a poor jump on the ball to begin with. It could've been a double, but either way...you can't allow that to happen in a close game, especially with 1 out. Willy is very lucky Harang was able to get out of that unscathed. You never want to see a guy at 3rd base (and with less than 2 outs no less).

BuckeyeRedleg
06-11-2009, 11:47 AM
Dickerson is far better (and younger and cheaper), with a much higher ceiling than Taveras in everything (but stealing bases).

Heisey and Stubbs, down on the farm, are BOTH arguably better than Taveras.

Stubbs and Dickerson should platoon NOW. Stubbs is ready and Heisey needs challenged in Louisville.

There simply is no reason that Willy Taveras should occupy a roster spot with this team.

Sad thing is, that this is just common sense type stuff that many of us have been saying for months, even when they were just flirting with the idea of signing Willy.

You know, common sense type stuff like Gomes over McDonald. Wow. Rocket science.

wolfboy
06-11-2009, 11:57 AM
I'm in no way implying that Willy will be the answer in CF, but at the very least he's got the experience to take the job back over if Dickerson would faulter.

This argument just boils down to time but has nothing to do with talent. A smart management team should make decision based on talent instead of time.

Everyone understands that Taveras has more time in the majors than Dickerson. Yet, the only thing Taveras has done with that time is demonstrate that he's not very good. Dickerson hasn't had as much time in the majors, but so far he's demonstrated that he's a better player than Taveras. That said, he's also shown the same when you compare their minor league numbers.

OldXOhio
06-11-2009, 12:04 PM
Sad thing is, that this is just common sense type stuff that many of us have been saying for months, even when they were just flirting with the idea of signing Willy.

You know, common sense type stuff like Gomes over McDonald. Wow. Rocket science.

Months??? We've had these arguments over a variety of different players for years now.

BuckeyeRedleg
06-11-2009, 12:08 PM
Months??? We've had these arguments over a variety of different players for years now.

Yeah? And we've been discussing/arguing/whatever about Willy Taveras for months.

OldXOhio
06-11-2009, 12:11 PM
Yeah? And we've been discussing/arguing/whatever about Willy Taveras for months.

This year's Willy is last year's Corey which was the year before's Juan....

Troubling thing is they've all been no brainers.

BuckeyeRedleg
06-11-2009, 12:13 PM
This year's Willy is last year's Corey which was the year before's Juan....

Troubling thing is they've all been no brainers.

Amen.

Homer Bailey
06-11-2009, 12:17 PM
Dickerson is far better (and younger and cheaper), with a much higher ceiling than Taveras in everything (but stealing bases).

Heisey and Stubbs, down on the farm, are BOTH arguably better than Taveras.

Stubbs and Dickerson should platoon NOW. Stubbs is ready and Heisey needs challenged in Louisville.

There simply is no reason that Willy Taveras should occupy a roster spot with this team.

Sad thing is, that this is just common sense type stuff that many of us have been saying for months, even when they were just flirting with the idea of signing Willy.

You know, common sense type stuff like Gomes over McDonald. Wow. Rocket science.

This is what is so uber-frustrating to me. Moves that seem so simple that this front office repeatedly screws up. There is no way that Taveras should have ever been signed. There is no way that Darnell McDonald should have ever made the major league roster. And definitley no way he should stay on the roster for 40 games. And despite all of this, somehow the Reds are 1.5 games back!

I(heart)Freel
06-11-2009, 01:17 PM
Willy's legs are his game. His entire game. If he can't leg out the occasional infield single and steal a bag or two a series, he is not helping this team.

My prediction: Dusty gives him this weekend or so to show he can do those things. If he can't, he goes on the DL (sore hammy) to make room for Votto's triumphant return.

mbgrayson
06-11-2009, 02:37 PM
Taveras clearly is experiencing leg or hammy related problems. Just looked (http://cincinnati.reds.mlb.com/stats/individual_player_gamebygamelog.jsp?c_id=cin&playerID=430838&statType=1)and he doesn't have a steal since May 22nd, in his last 10 games played. He also missed a number of games in that time span, and has one caught stealing.

Without speed and stolen bases, Willy T. has no area of superiority over Dickerson at all.

RichRed
06-11-2009, 02:46 PM
Taveras clearly is experiencing leg or hammy related problems. Just looked (http://cincinnati.reds.mlb.com/stats/individual_player_gamebygamelog.jsp?c_id=cin&playerID=430838&statType=1)and he doesn't have a steal since May 22nd, in his last 10 games played. He also missed a number of games in that time span, and has one caught stealing.

Without speed and stolen bases, Willy T. has no area of superiority over Dickerson at all.

Hard to steal when you can't even get on base, but your point is taken. (He's been on base all of 6 times in his past 10 games played - ugh.)

Redlegs
06-11-2009, 07:13 PM
At this point, I really can't see what Taveras brings to this club.

Chip R
06-11-2009, 08:39 PM
At this point, I really can't see what Taveras brings to this club.


Why do you hate Speed and Defense?

KronoRed
06-11-2009, 08:56 PM
At this point, I really can't see what Taveras brings to this club.

Lots of easy outs:thumbup:

jojo
06-11-2009, 10:30 PM
Right now Willy would have tough time winning a poll asking "Willy or Roseanne Barr in CF?" and that's with the caveat that Roseanne would also be singing the national anthem.

Chip R
06-11-2009, 10:46 PM
Right now Willy would have tough time winning a poll asking "Willy or Roseanne Barr in CF?" and that's with the caveat that Roseanne would also be singing the national anthem.


I think Roseanne would take better routes to the ball.

dougdirt
06-12-2009, 12:56 AM
I think Roseanne would take better routes to the ball.

Only if we told her it had cream filling :eek:

TheNext44
06-12-2009, 01:08 AM
I have a conspiracy theory about the Taveras signing.

Just a hunch, but I think that Dusty went to Walt and said I want Taveras. He's a leadoff hitter in CF. A speedy guy who plays solid defense. My dream guy.

Walt said okay, knowing that the Reds probably were not going to contend, and this way he can say to Dusty at the end of the year, we tried it your way, it didn't work, now let's try it the right way.
He knew that either Dickerson or Stubbs would be ready by the end of this year or next year, so Taveras would just be a $6M stopgap until then. And a fifth outfielder for $6M for two years is not that outrageous, and something the Reds could afford.
And maybe, just maybe, Taveras has a year more like 2007 than 2008.

And now that Taveras is more like 08 than 07, and the Reds are contending, I think that Walt will give Dusty to the All-Star break with Taveras. If he doesn't turn it around, at the very least, Dickerson will platoon with him in CF.

Just a hunch. Maybe wishful thinking?

TheNext44
06-12-2009, 01:11 AM
Only if we told her it had cream filling :eek:

Reminds me of the great Pete Rose quote to Eric Gregg. Gregg missed a call at second. Rose told Gregg that if he admited that he missed it, he would turn around and go straight back to the dugout. Gregg admitted he missed it, Rose turned around, but not before adding:

"If it were a cheeseburger, you wouldn't have missed it!"

Patrick Bateman
06-12-2009, 01:16 AM
Well, it you think that, then you should think that he will finish with an OBP of .329, which means that he will OBP around .360 the rest of the way. Which is basically my point.

Right now, due to an 0-19 slump (Pujols just had an 0-16 slump) he is off of his career numbers. I think if he gets enough playing time, they will come back to his norm.

However, even if he did do that, I would still want Dickerson over him.

Technically base don that theory, you'd expect Taveras to OBP .400 the rest of the way if he were doing even worse right now. That doesn't really make any sense. Doing below norms in the past does not mean that it should be expected that players will do equally better in the future to counteract the past events.

Taveras' career numbers should still be the expected guideline at this point, from here on in (as in somewhere around .328 the rest of the way). A correction would be an unexpected bonus.

TheNext44
06-12-2009, 01:26 AM
Technically base don that theory, you'd expect Taveras to OBP .400 the rest of the way if he were doing even worse right now. That doesn't really make any sense. Doing below norms in the past does not mean that it should be expected that players will do equally better in the future to counteract the past events.

Taveras' career numbers should still be the expected guideline at this point, from here on in (as in somewhere around .328 the rest of the way). A correction would be an unexpected bonus.

I did say it was an absurd prediction.... :p:

acredsfan
06-12-2009, 01:52 AM
So you would rather stick with a player like Taveras, who has proven to be unproductive rather than take a chance on Dickerson... because you think that he might suck too?

:confused:If you read my post again I said I'm all for giving Dickerson more playing time, BUT I'm not for trading Taveras away in case Dickerson fails miserably.

Ron Madden
06-12-2009, 03:20 AM
I'm all for giving more playing time to Dickerson, but let's not be too quick to trade Willy Taveras. Yeah, he may not be an outstanding player, but I'm not willing to place all of my trust in the rookie just yet. People can argue all they want about how Willy isn't as good of a hitter, but Dickerson hasn't proven crap yet. He's had one decent month at the plate this year, but his average is still under .250. He went through a spell where he swung at everything, but his OBP is a decent .375. Still, way too soon to declare him the answer in CF for the season. Knee jerk reactions are a terrible way to run a franchise. Let's remember that many people were calling for Dickerson to sit when Nix was showing promise in LF.

I'm in no way implying that Willy will be the answer in CF, but at the very least he's got the experience to take the job back over if Dickerson would faulter. CF is one of the areas that Walt should look to upgrade, but honestly it's rare to find a CFer who can play offense and defense.

acredsfan,

My argument is Taveras should have never been signed when There Were Better Options In House.

Signing Taveras to a two year multi million dollar deal was nothing other than foolish move, one that many members of RedsZone predicted to be a foolish move.

I have never posted anything about trading Taveras. Who the hell are you gonna trade him to and for what?

:confused:

Ron Madden
06-12-2009, 03:22 AM
If you read my post again I said I'm all for giving Dickerson more playing time, BUT I'm not for trading Taveras away in case Dickerson fails miserably.

bucksfan2
06-12-2009, 08:41 AM
acredsfan,

My argument is Taveras should have never been signed when There Were Better Options In House.

Signing Taveras to a two year multi million dollar deal was nothing other than foolish move, one that many members of RedsZone predicted to be a foolish move.

I have never posted anything about trading Taveras. Who the hell are you gonna trade him to and for what?

:confused:

The Reds weren't ready to hand over the starting CF job to Dickerson at the start of the season. It is also apparent with Stubbs still down in AAA that the Reds didn't fell he was ready yet. From what I have seen of this front office they want to make their young players earn the job instead of handing it to them. They did a similar thing with Votto last season when he was brought up.

Dickerson was pretty awful in the beginning of the year. He wasn't ready yet to be an everyday player, and you could argue that he isn't ready now. I had no problem with Taveras being brought in as a stop gap until Stubbs was ready. The second year was a little confusing but with Owings bat on the bench the Reds would be ok with Taveras as a 4th outfielder.

jojo
06-12-2009, 08:59 AM
Well, it you think that, then you should think that he will finish with an OBP of .329, which means that he will OBP around .360 the rest of the way. Which is basically my point.

Right now, due to an 0-19 slump (Pujols just had an 0-16 slump) he is off of his career numbers. I think if he gets enough playing time, they will come back to his norm.

However, even if he did do that, I would still want Dickerson over him.

I'm not sure if I'm getting the context correctly but here goes...

If you think Taveras has a true skill represented by an OBP of .329, barring injury, you'd expect his OBP to be .329 +/- the standard deviation associated with whatever sample size you're projecting regardless of whether his last stretch of PAs were characterized by an OBP of .450 or .125.

TRF
06-12-2009, 09:24 AM
If you read my post again I said I'm all for giving Dickerson more playing time, BUT I'm not for trading Taveras away in case Dickerson fails miserably.

So, in case Dickerson fails, your contingency is a player that is a complete offensive black hole of suck?

cool.

Redlegs
06-12-2009, 09:38 AM
Why do you hate Speed and Defense?
No, I love speed and defense. The problem is he's misplayed a few balls in center so his defense is replaceable, IMO. He has speed, but he hasn't been an agressive base runner. He wanted to swipe 100 bags this season. He'd better hurry.

I'm not one to go hating on our players. I just think his presence in the lineup has not given this club an advantage thus far. But when he's in there, I'm rooting for him.

OnBaseMachine
06-12-2009, 11:37 AM
From Lance:

Let's play a game
How long before Dusty gives in and plays Dickerson in CF and/or the Reds place Taveras on the DL?
The table settter is 0 for his last 24 and 1 for his last 29.
And consider the emailer Jeff earlier this week: (updated)
Taveras during 14 game hit streak: 24-59 .407 avg (Reds record 10-4)
Taveras in other 45 games: 22-134 .164 avg (Reds record 21-24)
1st Dusty got "irritated" about people telling him to play the hot hand.
2nd Dusty moved Taveras to the 2nd spot to help him get going.
3rd? Heck, maybe Dusty moves him to the 3rd spot.
Taveras has an OBP of .294. He's done the impossible, it's lower than his OBP last year in Colorado (.308)
It all makes my head hurt.
Wouldn't you love to hear the conversation where Bob C. asks Walt why they are paying him 4-million next year?

http://www.1530homer.com/pages/lancesBlog.html

Jpup
06-12-2009, 01:30 PM
From Lance:

Let's play a game
How long before Dusty gives in and plays Dickerson in CF and/or the Reds place Taveras on the DL?
The table settter is 0 for his last 24 and 1 for his last 29.
And consider the emailer Jeff earlier this week: (updated)
Taveras during 14 game hit streak: 24-59 .407 avg (Reds record 10-4)
Taveras in other 45 games: 22-134 .164 avg (Reds record 21-24)
1st Dusty got "irritated" about people telling him to play the hot hand.
2nd Dusty moved Taveras to the 2nd spot to help him get going.
3rd? Heck, maybe Dusty moves him to the 3rd spot.
Taveras has an OBP of .294. He's done the impossible, it's lower than his OBP last year in Colorado (.308)
It all makes my head hurt.
Wouldn't you love to hear the conversation where Bob C. asks Walt why they are paying him 4-million next year?

http://www.1530homer.com/pages/lancesBlog.html

Kind of like me asking Bob Miller why they were paying him 4 million before the season started. He is a DFA waiting to happen. If not soon, then it will be before the end of his contract. I can't really see anyone taking him in a trade unless the Reds are dealing with Kenny Williams.

TheNext44
06-12-2009, 01:30 PM
I'm not sure if I'm getting the context correctly but here goes...

If you think Taveras has a true skill represented by an OBP of .329, barring injury, you'd expect his OBP to be .329 +/- the standard deviation associated with whatever sample size you're projecting regardless of whether his last stretch of PAs were characterized by an OBP of .450 or .125.

Thanks for pointing that out. I was wrong on that.

Actually my mistake was using his current career OBP of .329. Coming into the season, he had one of .330. Now it is .327. If one were to assume that his skill level is a .330 OBP, you would have to assume that he will perform better at some point to get his career number back to .330.

Now I don't really buy into this notion that his skill level is exactly .330, but if one were to assume that, that is the conclusion that could be drawn.

My point was that if you believe that Willy Taveras = Willy Taveras, then you would think that he is due for a hot streak at some point this season, to offset the slump he currently is in.

To be honest, he could be much worse than a .330 OBP, and this slump is the correction to get him to his true skill level. Who knows?

RedsManRick
06-12-2009, 01:50 PM
Thanks for pointing that out. I was wrong on that.

Actually my mistake was using his current career OBP of .329. Coming into the season, he had one of .330. Now it is .327. If one were to assume that his skill level is a .330 OBP, you would have to assume that he will perform better at some point to get his career number back to .330.

Now I don't really buy into this notion that his skill level is exactly .330, but if one were to assume that, that is the conclusion that could be drawn.

My point was that if you believe that Willy Taveras = Willy Taveras, then you would think that he is due for a hot streak at some point this season, to offset the slump he currently is in.

To be honest, he could be much worse than a .330 OBP, and this slump is the correction to get him to his true skill level. Who knows?

Say you're rolling a die and you've gone 30 throws without throwing a 6. You know that since there's a 1/6 chance of throwing a 6 on any given roll. Thus, in that time period you expected to have seen 5 6's, on average. So you surmise that you're "due" and expect a run of 6's sometime in the near future to "balance things out"... right?

This is called the gambler's fallacy (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gambler%27s_fallacy). Probability simply doesn't work that way. In reality, what's likely to happen is that from this point forward, you'll see 1/6 of your rolls showing up as 6's.

So, if Willy Taveras is truly a .330 OBP hitter, we would expect him to put up a .330 OBP moving forward, regardless of what he's done in the last few weeks. "Due" is true, but only to the extent that we should expect a player to perform as his true level of ability moving forward rather than to continue to slump. There should be no expectation of a hot streak to balance things out.

The mistake is made because we forget our assumptions. The most likely result of future events is based on the player's skill level. The player's skill level doesn't change because of what he did yesterday, or last month. Taveras won't be a better hitter tomorrow because he struggled yesterday. So if we want to know what is likely to happen moving forward, if he's the same player he was on April 1st, we expect a .330 OBP moving forward. If want to know what to expect by the end of year, we simply take the sample we've observed and add it to our best guess about what's likely to happen moving forward.

So, given that we know that his OBP through 218 PA is .294, and we would predict a .330 OBP over the remainder of his PA (say 350), we would expect his final OBP to be around .316.

klw
06-12-2009, 01:57 PM
Ah but would you trade Taveras straight up for Carlos Lee with no money thrown in?

bucksfan2
06-12-2009, 02:09 PM
So, if Willy Taveras is truly a .330 OBP hitter, we would expect him to put up a .330 OBP moving forward, regardless of what he's done in the last few weeks. "Due" is true, but only to the extent that we should expect a player to perform as his true level of ability moving forward rather than to continue to slump. There should be no expectation of a hot streak to balance things out.

If Wily Taveras is a true .330 OBP player why would his OBP average be hovering around the .300 mark? I do see your point with the Gamblers Fallacy bu there are too many variables with a baseball player than somewhat fixed variables in Gambling.

There is no such thing as a "true" anything in sports. Averages in baseball aren't static, they are constantly moving. There are peaks and valleys in a given season. At time a player is hot and playing above his average, at others he is cold and playing below his average. Once you get enough at bats or a big enough sample size the average will regress to its mean.

RedsManRick
06-12-2009, 02:31 PM
If Wily Taveras is a true .330 OBP player why would his OBP average be hovering around the .300 mark? I do see your point with the Gamblers Fallacy bu there are too many variables with a baseball player than somewhat fixed variables in Gambling.

There is no such thing as a "true" anything in sports. Averages in baseball aren't static, they are constantly moving. There are peaks and valleys in a given season. At time a player is hot and playing above his average, at others he is cold and playing below his average. Once you get enough at bats or a big enough sample size the average will regress to its mean.

Firstly, let's be clear about what "true" means. There is no way to know what a player's true skill level with absolute certainty. Our best guess of this true skill level is based on what the player has done in the past over a large number of plate appearances. If we have reason to believe his skills have changed since then, or that he has been particularly lucky or unlucky over that period of time, we might adjust our estimate accordingly. However, given that Taveras' OBP for his career is, if anything, higher than we would expect it to be based on his component skills, .330 is a fair estimate of his true skill level.

To your question, the reason his OBP is hovering around .300 is because .330 is an average over a theoretically infinite number of plate appearances. Just like if you toss a die an infinite number of times, you'll get a 6 on 1/6 of those rolls. However, if you only toss the die 6 times, you're not guaranteed to get exactly one 6. In fact, it's unlikely you'll get exactly one 6. What's more likely is that you'll get either zero 6's or two plus 6's. As the number of rolls increases, the proportion of rolls that are 6's will get closer and closer to 1/6. This is called the law of large numbers (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Law_of_large_numbers).

It works the same way in baseball. Take an established .300 hitter. In 10 at bats, he could hit anywhere from .000 (0/10) to .700 (7/10) and nobody would be surprised -- "small sample size". Make that number 100 and .000 (0/100) or .700 (70/100) would be quite unlikely. It's going to be more like .150 (15/100) and .450 (45/100). Make that number 500 and it's going to be more like .250 (125/500) and .350 (175/500). As the number of at bats increases, the tighter the range in which he might reasonably perform becomes. Make it 5000 at bats, and you probably have most of his career -- and he'll be pretty darn close to his "true skill".

So, why is Taveras' OBP hovering around .300? Because it is -- that's the sum of his performances this far. What you might call "streakiness" is exactly what we would expect to see if it was all happening randomly. If Taveras is a .330 OBP guy, there will be times when he goes 0-20 and times when he goes 10-20. He's not really shifting his skills from a great player to a bad one and back. He's just experiencing streaks in his results. Just like there will be times when you roll 3 6's in a roll. It doesn't mean you went through a period of being skilled at rolling 6's.

Streaks happen. Wild shifts in performance are expected over small samples -- and 200 at bats is a small sample in baseball. But they don't imply a wild shift in ability. Willy Taveras' most likely performance moving forward is the one based on his skill level -- a .330 OBP. He could be better than that moving forward. He could be worse than that moving forward. But .330 is the most likely. That estimation is based on his skill level, which doesn't change simply because he's got a .300 OBP so far this season.

bucksfan2
06-12-2009, 02:56 PM
So, why is Taveras' OBP hovering around .300? Because it is -- that's the sum of his performances this far. What you might call "streakiness" is exactly what we would expect to see if it was all happening randomly. If Taveras is a .330 OBP guy, there will be times when he goes 0-20 and times when he goes 10-20. He's not really shifting his skills from a great player to a bad one and back. He's just experiencing streaks in his results. Just like there will be times when you roll 3 6's in a roll. It doesn't mean you went through a period of being skilled at rolling 6's.

Streaks happen. Wild shifts in performance are expected over small samples -- and 200 at bats is a small sample in baseball. But they don't imply a wild shift in ability. Willy Taveras' most likely performance moving forward is the one based on his skill level -- a .330 OBP. He could be better than that moving forward. He could be worse than that moving forward. But .330 is the most likely. That estimation is based on his skill level, which doesn't change simply because he's got a .300 OBP so far this season.

RMR you are complicating this. OBP is an average correct? To say that Taveras is a .330 OBPer is somewhat incorrect to me. Basically when all is said and done the middle point of Taveras OBP is .330.

IMO you could take all different data points and date ranges and come up with all different kinds of answers. If you believe that over the course of a season WT will have a .330 OBP then logic would suggest that he is going to improve on his current statistics, baring an unknown outside factor, from now to the end of the season.

Let me ask you this. I am going to flip a quarter 1000 times. At the start I ask you how many times heads will come up, within a margin of +/-10. What would your answer be? Logic would say 500 would be the choice. Now lets assume that after 200 flips it is heads 110 tails 90. If you were give a chance to change, would you? Or would you still stick the fact that the variances will even out?

jojo
06-12-2009, 03:22 PM
RMR you are complicating this. OBP is an average correct? To say that Taveras is a .330 OBPer is somewhat incorrect to me. Basically when all is said and done the middle point of Taveras OBP is .330.

IMO you could take all different data points and date ranges and come up with all different kinds of answers. If you believe that over the course of a season WT will have a .330 OBP then logic would suggest that he is going to improve on his current statistics, baring an unknown outside factor, from now to the end of the season.

Let me ask you this. I am going to flip a quarter 1000 times. At the start I ask you how many times heads will come up, within a margin of +/-10. What would your answer be? Logic would say 500 would be the choice. Now lets assume that after 200 flips it is heads 110 tails 90. If you were give a chance to change, would you? Or would you still stick the fact that the variances will even out?

I'd say the best bet is that the flip will come up heads 400 times out of the next 800 unless there was a reason the coin flip wasn't honest. If the next 200 flips also resulted in roughly 110 heads, i'd adjust my assessment and assume the coin isn't honest (i.e. the true expectation of the outcome isn't 50:50)

RedsManRick
06-12-2009, 04:04 PM
RMR you are complicating this. OBP is an average correct? To say that Taveras is a .330 OBPer is somewhat incorrect to me. Basically when all is said and done the middle point of Taveras OBP is .330.

IMO you could take all different data points and date ranges and come up with all different kinds of answers. If you believe that over the course of a season WT will have a .330 OBP then logic would suggest that he is going to improve on his current statistics, baring an unknown outside factor, from now to the end of the season.

Let me ask you this. I am going to flip a quarter 1000 times. At the start I ask you how many times heads will come up, within a margin of +/-10. What would your answer be? Logic would say 500 would be the choice. Now lets assume that after 200 flips it is heads 110 tails 90. If you were give a chance to change, would you? Or would you still stick the fact that the variances will even out?[/QUOTE]

Given your example, my new estimate for the total number of heads would be the current number of heads, 110, plus the number I expect to see in the remaining 800 flips based on my knowledge of the "true skill" of the flip -- 50% of 400 heads.

So my new estimate for the number of heads in THIS sample of 1000 flips is 510. That's what you're missing, this season is still just a sample against that "true skill". His true skill is not what his number will be at some point in time (say, the end of the season), but rather what his performance will be moving forward. At the beginning of the season, with 0 PA under his belt, .330 was our best guess. But at this point in the season, with a ~200 PA of a ~.300 OBP already having occurred, our estimate for his end of the season number changes. You are fixing .330 as his end of the season number when it's actually his rest of the season number.

It's actually simple. We're talking about 3 numbers.
1) OBP to date
2) OBP moving forward
3) OBP at the end of the season

The formula we've been discussing is 3 = 1 + 2. His OBP at the end of the season (3) is a combination of how his current OBP (1) and the OBP he puts up the rest of the way (2).

#1 is completely simple. We know what his OBP so far is and in how many PA.

#2 is what we've been calling is "true skill". This number doesn't change unless we think he actually has become a worse or better hitter. This whole conversation is based on the assumption that his actually ability to hit doesn't change throughout the course of the season. It's his performance that varies. These are two different things. A streak of 6's doesn't mean you've gotten better at rolling 6's -- just that you rolled a few 6's.

#3 is based on a combination of #1 and #2. At the beginning of this season, #1 was zero, since he didn't have any plate appearances. Thus #2 and #3 were the same thing (.330). But now that he's had a few hundred plate appearances, the math changes.

Beginning of the season:
(.000 OBP in 0% of his PA this season) + (.330 OBP in 100% of his PA this season) = .330 OBP this season

Now
(.294 OBP in 35% PA this season) + (.330 OBP in 65% of his PA this season) = .317 OBP this season.

Again, the trick is that we only expect this season's OBP to be the same as his true skill when we have no information about how he's performed so far. They are not fated to be equal. It's just our best guess absent any other information. But if we know how well he's performed this far, that doesn't change how we expect him to perform moving forward. Our anchor point is .330 moving forward, not .330 by the time he accrues 600 PA.

TheNext44
06-12-2009, 05:05 PM
Say you're rolling a die and you've gone 30 throws without throwing a 6. You know that since there's a 1/6 chance of throwing a 6 on any given roll. Thus, in that time period you expected to have seen 5 6's, on average. So you surmise that you're "due" and expect a run of 6's sometime in the near future to "balance things out"... right?

This is called the gambler's fallacy (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gambler%27s_fallacy). Probability simply doesn't work that way. In reality, what's likely to happen is that from this point forward, you'll see 1/6 of your rolls showing up as 6's.

So, if Willy Taveras is truly a .330 OBP hitter, we would expect him to put up a .330 OBP moving forward, regardless of what he's done in the last few weeks. "Due" is true, but only to the extent that we should expect a player to perform as his true level of ability moving forward rather than to continue to slump. There should be no expectation of a hot streak to balance things out.

The mistake is made because we forget our assumptions. The most likely result of future events is based on the player's skill level. The player's skill level doesn't change because of what he did yesterday, or last month. Taveras won't be a better hitter tomorrow because he struggled yesterday. So if we want to know what is likely to happen moving forward, if he's the same player he was on April 1st, we expect a .330 OBP moving forward. If want to know what to expect by the end of year, we simply take the sample we've observed and add it to our best guess about what's likely to happen moving forward.

So, given that we know that his OBP through 218 PA is .294, and we would predict a .330 OBP over the remainder of his PA (say 350), we would expect his final OBP to be around .316.

Re-read what I said. The key is that I am talking about moving his career number back to his true skill level, .330, not having this season's number end at .330.

The difference between a players stats and the odds of a coin flip, is that the odds of the coin flip are taking into account every coin flip in the history of time, as you pointed out. The odds of Taveras getting on base is based only on his PA's, which are finite, and have a beginning and an end. That changes the effect the odds have on his remaining PA's, if we are too assume that the .330 number is fixed and reflects his true skill level.

Let's say that this is the only coin in the world, and we are going to flip it 1000 times. And the odds are fixed, so that it over the 1000 times, it will end up heads 500 times and tails 500 times. If the first 500 are 300 heads and 200 tails, the next 500 would have to be 200 heads and 300 tails.

That is exactly what you are saying when you are saying that Taveras' skill level is .330. You are saying that at the end of his career, he will have an .330 OBP. Therefore, if his career numbers are at .327 right now, in order for him to reach .330 at the end of his career, he must hit better than .330 to get back to his true skill level. (And I am hoping that he doesn't have too many more PA's as a Red.)

Now all of this is predicated on believing that his numbers represent his true skill level, and that they are fixed, like the odds of a coin. I think no one in this discussion believes that. However, that was the premise from which I was working.

RedsManRick
06-12-2009, 05:13 PM
Let's say that this is the only coin in the world, and we are going to flip it 1000 times. And the odds are fixed, so that it over the 1000 times, it will end up heads 500 times and tails 500 times. If the first 500 are 300 heads and 200 tails, the next 500 would have to be 200 heads and 300 tails.

That is exactly what you are saying when you are saying that Taveras' skill level is .330. You are saying that at the end of his career, he will have an .330 OBP. Therefore, if his career numbers are at .327 right now, in order for him to reach .330 at the end of his career, he must hit better than .330 to get back to his true skill level. (And I am hoping that he doesn't have too many more PA's as a Red.)

Now all of this is predicated on believing that his numbers represent his true skill level, and that they are fixed, like the odds of a coin. I think no one in this discussion believes that. However, that was the premise from which I was working.

You're still missing it. The odds of that coin going 50% heads and 50% tails is not determined by the number of times we flip it. It's a fundamental characteristic of the coin itself. You're working backwards.

I'm not saying that Taveras will have a .330 OBP at the end of his career. I'm saying that if he had an infinite number of plate appearances, he would hit .330. But he won't and can't have an infinite number of plate appearances. So he'll end up an OBP that is more or less .330. Generally speaking, the more plate appearances he gets, the closer to .330 that cumulative OBP will get. However, over any finite number of plate appearances, our best guess of his OBP for that sample will always be .330. We can't fix it at an arbitrary end point such as the end of the season. I know it's sort of counter-intuitive, but that's where infinity comes in play. As the denominator increases, the small sample of plate appearances we've seen so far becomes increasingly insignificant such that the current sample becomes meaningless.

To put it another way, a hitter with a true skill level of .330 OBP might end up with a career value of .327. Your true skill level is not determined by your performance. Rather it is something that already exists as a function of your ability. Your performance is simply that "true skill" in action, producing variable results over time around that mean. How quickly your performance nears your true skill varies from skill to skill, some regress faster than others. But even a full career doesn't guarantee that your performance will match your true skill, let alone a full season -- this is the assertion you're trying to make.

TheNext44
06-12-2009, 05:21 PM
You're still missing it. The odds of that coin going 50% heads and 50% tails is not determined by our 1000 flips. It has nothing to do with how many times we choose to flip it. It's a fundamental characteristic of the coin itself.

Right. Not arguing that. Read what I wrote. I will put it in here again.



The difference between a players stats and the odds of a coin flip, is that the odds of the coin flip are taking into account every coin flip in the history of time, as you pointed out. The odds of Taveras getting on base is based only on his PA's, which are finite, and have a beginning and an end. That changes the effect the odds have on his remaining PA's, if we are too assume that the .330 number is fixed and reflects his true skill level.

Let's say that this is the only coin in the world, and we are going to flip it 1000 times. And the odds are fixed, so that it over the 1000 times, it will end up heads 500 times and tails 500 times. If the first 500 are 300 heads and 200 tails, the next 500 would have to be 200 heads and 300 tails.

If Taveras had an infinite career (very scary thought :eek:) then the rules of the coin flip would apply to his OBP. But it is not, thank God, so if we are to say that his OBP is fixed, but within a finite number of PA's, it is just like the example above of the only coin in the world.

RedsManRick
06-12-2009, 05:28 PM
Right. Not arguing that. Read what I wrote. I will put it in here again.

If Taveras had an infinite career (very scary thought :eek:) then the rules of the coin flip would apply to his OBP. But it is not, thank God, so if we are to say that his OBP is fixed, but within a finite number of PA's, it is just like the example above of the only coin in the world.

Except we aren't saying that his actual OBP is fixed, just his skill level which produces the OBP. In the coin flip example, the odds of hitting heads stays at 50% as a function of the coin itself. It has nothing to do with how many times you flip it. It's the coin itself, it's design and the process of flipping, that determines those odds. Whether you've previously flipped heads or tails doesn't change those things which actually determine your odds of getting a heads or tails in the future. And as soon as you take a sample of X observed flips (or plate appearances), as you must do in the real world, there's a range of possible outcomes centered around the true skill level.

The gamblers fallacy points out that the odds don't change simply because you have a certain sample in the bag already. The odds are fixed determined by those conditions of the game. A sample simply provides you real life evidence of what those true odds (or true skill) might be. As the sample gets bigger, the more confident you can be that what you've observed is close to the real odds. If for some reason you know what the real odds are, then you're all set. Your best guess about what's likely to happen in the future is based on those odds and is completely independent of what has happened so far.

We are surmising that just like the coin has a "true skill" of 50% heads based on the nature of coin itself and act of flipping it, we're surmising that Taveras has a true skill of 33% on base based on the nature of his abilities and the act of getting on on base. That he's flipped his 33% coin 218 this year and ended up with a 29.5% rate of "on base" doesn't change the odds moving forward.

It's not like Taveras has a bag with 5,000 plate appearances in it with 1,650 times on base among them. If this were the case, you'd be correct. The odds would change after each plate appearance. But the bag of plate appearances from which he's drawing isn't the finite number which he'll get in his career or in this season, but rather an infinite number. That you've pulled 218 from the bottomless bag doesn't change the odds of the next 1, 100, or 1000 of being on base. They all remain 33%.

WMR
06-12-2009, 05:42 PM
I would be ecstatic if Walt was somehow able to trade away Dusty's favorite toy. But seeing as how Walt was the one who signed him to a 2 year deal in the first place...

pahster
06-12-2009, 05:53 PM
Say you're rolling a die and you've gone 30 throws without throwing a 6. You know that since there's a 1/6 chance of throwing a 6 on any given roll. Thus, in that time period you expected to have seen 5 6's, on average. So you surmise that you're "due" and expect a run of 6's sometime in the near future to "balance things out"... right?

This is called the gambler's fallacy (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gambler%27s_fallacy). Probability simply doesn't work that way. In reality, what's likely to happen is that from this point forward, you'll see 1/6 of your rolls showing up as 6's.

So, if Willy Taveras is truly a .330 OBP hitter, we would expect him to put up a .330 OBP moving forward, regardless of what he's done in the last few weeks. "Due" is true, but only to the extent that we should expect a player to perform as his true level of ability moving forward rather than to continue to slump. There should be no expectation of a hot streak to balance things out.

The mistake is made because we forget our assumptions. The most likely result of future events is based on the player's skill level. The player's skill level doesn't change because of what he did yesterday, or last month. Taveras won't be a better hitter tomorrow because he struggled yesterday. So if we want to know what is likely to happen moving forward, if he's the same player he was on April 1st, we expect a .330 OBP moving forward. If want to know what to expect by the end of year, we simply take the sample we've observed and add it to our best guess about what's likely to happen moving forward.

So, given that we know that his OBP through 218 PA is .294, and we would predict a .330 OBP over the remainder of his PA (say 350), we would expect his final OBP to be around .316.

You deserve 10,000 imaginary probabilistic rep points for this post. :thumbup:

TheNext44
06-12-2009, 06:19 PM
Except we aren't saying that his actual OBP is fixed, just his skill level which produces the OBP. In the coin flip example, the odds of hitting heads stays at 50% as a function of the coin itself. It has nothing to do with how many times you flip it. It's the coin itself, it's design and the process of flipping, that determines those odds. Whether you've previously flipped heads or tails doesn't change those things which actually determine your odds of getting a heads or tails in the future. And as soon as you take a sample of X observed flips (or plate appearances), as you must do in the real world, there's a range of possible outcomes centered around the true skill level.

The gamblers fallacy points out that the odds don't change simply because you have a certain sample in the bag already. The odds are fixed determined by those conditions of the game. A sample simply provides you real life evidence of what those true odds (or true skill) might be. As the sample gets bigger, the more confident you can be that what you've observed is close to the real odds. If for some reason you know what the real odds are, then you're all set. Your best guess about what's likely to happen in the future is based on those odds and is completely independent of what has happened so far.

We are surmising that just like the coin has a "true skill" of 50% heads based on the nature of coin itself and act of flipping it, we're surmising that Taveras has a true skill of 33% on base based on the nature of his abilities and the act of getting on on base. That he's flipped his 33% coin 218 this year and ended up with a 29.5% rate of "on base" doesn't change the odds moving forward.

It's not like Taveras has a bag with 5,000 plate appearances in it with 1,650 times on base among them. If this were the case, you'd be correct. The odds would change after each plate appearance. But the bag of plate appearances from which he's drawing isn't the finite number which he'll get in his career or in this season, but rather an infinite number. That you've pulled 218 from the bottomless bag doesn't change the odds of the next 1, 100, or 1000 of being on base. They all remain 33%.

I understand your point, now. You were working under the assumption that Taveras' skill level is fixed, and I was working under the assumption that his OBP is fixed.

Obviously, neither is the case, since nothing in human dynamics is fixed like it is with a coin flip. I guess the next step is to discuss the relationship between a players skill level and his actual numbers, but I gotta go. Maybe later? ;)

Thanks for the lively, informative discussion. I know I enjoyed it :)

jojo
06-12-2009, 06:40 PM
I understand your point, now. You were working under the assumption that Taveras' skill level is fixed, and I was working under the assumption that his OBP is fixed.

Obviously, neither is the case, since nothing in human dynamics is fixed like it is with a coin flip. I guess the next step is to discuss the relationship between a players skill level and his actual numbers, but I gotta go. Maybe later? ;)

Thanks for the lively, informative discussion. I know I enjoyed it :)

It's fixed in the sense that the estimate of his true skill is fixed over a projection sample. There are obviously developmental curves, aging curves and injuries etc. Those effects are largely built into the projection of his true skill. Also the estimate of a player's true skill is constantly effected by new performance data.

alloverjr
06-12-2009, 06:42 PM
And to get off topic...Taveras is in the lineup, leading off against a RHP and Dickerson sits - with the DH. I think Dusty's doing this just to try and prove people wrong, seriously.

mth123
06-12-2009, 06:56 PM
Willy Taveras OPS is .595

Not a "league average" .760 or so for a CF.

Not an "OK if he's cheap and plays good "D" .725

Not an "all right if I have no one else" .700

not even a "well he's a bench player who plays a PR/Defensive replacement/designated bunter role" .650

he has a "why am I even in the majors at all?" .595.

Arguing that he should start over anyone is beyond reason. The Reds have 8 players in the organization to turn to in CF if Dickerson should prove to be a total bust who would provide a better game than Willy (Nix, Bruce, Hairston, McDonald, Hopper, Stubbs, Heisey and Henry) and every one of them is as good or better defensively.

A number of baseball figures did stupid things to ruin their legacy. Pete Rose gambled, Joe Jackson conspired, a whole bunch juiced, Bill Buckner misplayed a ground ball. Walt Jocketty may go down as the guy who signed Willy.;)

Razor Shines
06-12-2009, 07:13 PM
Great stuff, RMR. I've really enjoyed reading these last few pages.

flyer85
06-12-2009, 08:12 PM
if Dickerson can't find his way into the lineup in a game against Hochevar that has a DH I have no idea when he would.

Like I said when they signed Willy T, it was a flat awful signing because he was going to play

Raisor
06-12-2009, 08:18 PM
Reds Centerfield
2008
.249 .299 .401 .700

2009
.246 .300 .320 .619

jojo
06-12-2009, 09:30 PM
Reds Centerfield
2008
.249 .299 .401 .700

2009
.246 .300 .320 .619

Yes but the defense has been substantially improved in center this year...... oh wait....

klw
06-12-2009, 10:53 PM
Tonight while hitting leadoff Taveras saw a total of 8 pitches in 4 at bats. In the first and 9th he bunted on the first pitch each time. In the third he took a ball before grounding out on the 2nd pitch. In the 6th he took a ball and a strike before grounding out. I know he is slumping but that reeks of a batter who has no confidence about their ability to fall behind and make contact or of a scouting report that said you must swing at the first strike you see or else. I am not surprised at how bad the offense is. I am surprised that they are able to put up as many runs as they do.

wheels
06-13-2009, 12:42 AM
Willy Taveras OPS is .595

Not a "league average" .760 or so for a CF.

Not an "OK if he's cheap and plays good "D" .725

Not an "all right if I have no one else" .700

not even a "well he's a bench player who plays a PR/Defensive replacement/designated bunter role" .650

he has a "why am I even in the majors at all?" .595.

Arguing that he should start over anyone is beyond reason. The Reds have 8 players in the organization to turn to in CF if Dickerson should prove to be a total bust who would provide a better game than Willy (Nix, Bruce, Hairston, McDonald, Hopper, Stubbs, Heisey and Henry) and every one of them is as good or better defensively.

A number of baseball figures did stupid things to ruin their legacy. Pete Rose gambled, Joe Jackson conspired, a whole bunch juiced, Bill Buckner misplayed a ground ball. Walt Jocketty may go down as the guy who signed Willy.;)

And to think that Walt wanted to actually make a trade for him before he was released.

All I can say is wowwwww.

fearofpopvol1
06-13-2009, 12:47 AM
If Willy is going to bat...he should be batting 7th or 8th at the very least...definitely not 1st or 2nd.

Homer Bailey
06-13-2009, 01:25 AM
If Willy is going to bat...he should be batting 7th or 8th at the very least for Dayton...definitely not 1st or 2nd.

Fixed.

fearofpopvol1
06-13-2009, 02:36 AM
Fixed.

Let's not get too carried away. His OBP for his entire minor league career was almost .370.

He's been bad as of late (and he's not great in general)...I don't think anyone is denying that. But Willy's career OBP is better than nearly every Reds player's OBP is this year...excluding Votto (who has been out for a while now), Gomes (who has 34 Abs), Hannigan and Dickerson.

New Fever
06-13-2009, 03:38 AM
Let's not get too carried away. His OBP for his entire minor league career was almost .370.

He's been bad as of late (and he's not great in general)...I don't think anyone is denying that. But Willy's career OBP is better than nearly every Reds player's OBP is this year...excluding Votto (who has been out for a while now), Gomes (who has 34 Abs), Hannigan and Dickerson.

Phillips has a higher OBP as well.

Razor Shines
06-13-2009, 06:01 AM
Let's not get too carried away. His OBP for his entire minor league career was almost .370.

He's been bad as of late (and he's not great in general)...I don't think anyone is denying that. But Willy's career OBP is better than nearly every Reds player's OBP is this year...excluding Votto (who has been out for a while now), Gomes (who has 34 Abs), Hannigan and Dickerson.

You can add Hairston to that list. And he's only a point above Hernandez. Not very impressive. But I absolutely do admire your persistence, it can't be easy to try to come up with arguments defending Willy at this point. Creativity is the key.

Razor Shines
06-13-2009, 06:04 AM
Phillips has a higher OBP as well.

Unforunately Captain Plate Patience's career OBP is only .311. Thus, lower than Willy T's career .327.

mth123
06-13-2009, 06:21 AM
Let's not get too carried away. His OBP for his entire minor league career was almost .370.

He's been bad as of late (and he's not great in general)...I don't think anyone is denying that. But Willy's career OBP is better than nearly every Reds player's OBP is this year...excluding Votto (who has been out for a while now), Gomes (who has 34 Abs), Hannigan and Dickerson.

Willy's OPS is is now .582.

I suspect that Willy's career OBP is inflated by one season where he got an abnormally high number of bunt hits to drive it up. I'd guess his true skill level is somewhere below that (I'd guess around .300 is a reasonable expectation). When looking at OBP, its easy to forget that a player's value can't be judged by OBP alone. There is also a power element to a guy's offensive production and Willy is completely devoid of any power. Even if his career number is what we could expect from this point forward, his complete lack of power would still make that inadequate (no matter where he hits in the line-up). Guys like Nix, Phillips and Bruce can carry a lower OBP than guy's like Taveras or Hopper would need to have because they contribute heavily to the offense through power production. Ideally, they would all OBP above .350, but Phillips, for example, has shown that he can be a positive offensive contributor with an OBP below that. Willy, OTOH, would need to be significantly higher than that. IMO, if Willy were to OBP .330 and steal 60 bases, he'd still be a drag on the offense because he just doesn't make up for his complete lack of power by doing the things that he does do. Willy's current OBP of .288, IMO, is about 90 to 100 points below where it would need to be for Willy to avoid being a negative.

GAC
06-13-2009, 06:53 AM
But Willy's career OBP is better than nearly every Reds player's OBP is this year...excluding Votto (who has been out for a while now), Gomes (who has 34 Abs), Hannigan and Dickerson.

And that is a very telling sign of the construction of this current team, that, from an offensive standpoint looks like it came straight from the Island of Misfit Toys.

In the NL, they are bottom tier, and very near the cellar, in almost every major offensive category. Just from observing them, and I've watched practically every game, they are even a mediocre pitcher's dream team to face because they show no patience whatsoever, up there hacking away, and do nothing more then provide an opposing team's INF with GB practice.

Yeah, we definitely miss Votto. But even when he comes back this team is going to struggle because when one looks at the offensive numbers of batting #1 and #2 (table setters) - it should make most sick. It's simply totally unacceptable, and this this is the team that Walt and Dusty built.

Now not to despair, because it is fixable. But IMO, I don't think Baker can. Not when I listen to some aspects of his philosophical approach.

Raisor
06-13-2009, 10:18 PM
Willy is 0 for June and Dickerson can't buy a PA>

flying flip.

jojo
06-13-2009, 10:21 PM
Willy is 0 for June and Dickerson can't buy a PA>

flying flip.

Hurry up Votto...... that's all I have to say about WT.

OnBaseMachine
06-13-2009, 10:21 PM
Willy is 0 for June and Dickerson can't buy a PA>

flying flip.

0 for his last 32. Ouch. His OPS is down to .572 and his defense is average at best.

Raisor
06-13-2009, 10:28 PM
June 13, 2008>

Corey Patterson had a 584 OPS.

redsfandan
06-13-2009, 10:47 PM
I'm for a platoon in left (Nix/Gomes) and center (Tavares/Dickerson). Unfortunately it almost seems like I could manage those platoons better than Dusty. Just an example of a strength that can also be a negative: too loyal. Tavares just shouldn't be playing so much until he's at least 100%.

Raisor
06-13-2009, 10:48 PM
I'm for a platoon in left (Nix/Gomes) and center (Tavares/Dickerson). Unfortunately it almost seems like I could manage those platoons better than Dusty. Just an example of a strength that can also be a negative: too loyal. Tavares just shouldn't be playing so much until he's at least 100%.


He needs to be about 150%.

Homer Bailey
06-13-2009, 10:50 PM
He needs to be about 150%.

I think WT should be allowed to use PED's just to at least make things fair. Kind of like a golf handicap. Or the humidor in Colorado.

CrackerJack
06-13-2009, 11:05 PM
Just release Wily, promote Stubbs, use Dickerson/Stubbs platoon in CF. Enough already. Same with Rosales and Nix - start hitting tomorrow or find someone else, pretty much anything is better what those 2/3 players have been doing lately.

jojo
06-13-2009, 11:11 PM
I kind of feel bad for Willy. He is gimpy but plays when penciled into the lineup. He also obviously cares. We're getting his best effort.

It must be surreal to have reached the 99.9999 percentile of your profession and read that you should be considered a sucktacious mistake....

Raisor
06-13-2009, 11:14 PM
I kind of feel bad for Willy. He is gimpy but plays when penciled into the lineup. He also obviously cares. We're getting his best effort.

It must be surreal to have reached the 99.9999 percentile of your profession and read that you should be considered a sucktacious mistake....

I don't feel bad for him at all. He's making enough money to keep his family fed for the rest of his life and he's the idol of thousands of baseball fans that love the scrappy.

:thumbup:

BuckeyeRedleg
06-13-2009, 11:45 PM
Give Dusty the benefit of the doubt. Maybe he's just waiting for Willy to drop below .500 or .400 with his OPS before he finally sees enough.

No wonder his players love him.

But when all fails they can at least blame Joey and Edwin and Volquez being hurt as the excuse for continuing to make the same lame decisions.

Always a day late and a dollar short with this organization it seems.

KronoRed
06-13-2009, 11:50 PM
Dusty plays favorites, it's one of the most annoying things he does.

flyer85
06-14-2009, 12:06 AM
Dusty plays favorites, it's one of the most annoying things he does.scrappy veteran favorites

Homer Bailey
06-14-2009, 12:09 AM
If WT were to test positive for PED's, do you think they would suspend him, or really punish the Reds by keeping him on the active roster?

Kc61
06-14-2009, 12:27 AM
scrappy veteran favorites

So I guess Jay Bruce is a scrappy veteran. His OBP is .299 and his BA is .212yet Dusty has given him more plate appearances than anyone on the team.

Cedric
06-14-2009, 12:29 AM
So I guess Jay Bruce is a scrappy veteran. His OBP is .299 and his BA is .212yet Dusty has given him more plate appearances than anyone on the team.

I agree. Dusty hasn't been given anything to work with. He's not going to sit a player with the talent/age of Bruce. He's also not going to sit someone that Walt so obviously loved in Willy Taveres.

OnBaseMachine
06-14-2009, 12:40 AM
So I guess Jay Bruce is a scrappy veteran. His OBP is .299 and his BA is .212yet Dusty has given him more plate appearances than anyone on the team.

At least Bruce is playing plus defense, and despite his struggles, his OPS+ is 96, which is slightly below average. There's no doubt that he's struggling badly too, but at least he's still close to a league average hitter when he struggles.

Razor Shines
06-14-2009, 03:11 AM
Who would have thought that Ltlabner's sig line would be too optimistic?

nate
06-14-2009, 09:27 AM
So I guess Jay Bruce is a scrappy veteran. His OBP is .299 and his BA is .212yet Dusty has given him more plate appearances than anyone on the team.

He's also 22 and developing.

Willy is 27 and developed.

mth123
06-14-2009, 09:59 AM
So I guess Jay Bruce is a scrappy veteran. His OBP is .299 and his BA is .212yet Dusty has given him more plate appearances than anyone on the team.

Bruce .461 slugging percentage compared to Taveras .289 should provde a clue to the diffierence. If Taveras could slug .450+ he'd be viewed entirely differently. Fact is, his lack of slugging just means his OBP needs to be that much higher for him to be a positive contributor. Bruce can OBP in the .330 range (and he clearly needs to improve) and be a solid producer (kind of like Phillips but better) while its still completely inadequate in Willy's case.

Homer Bailey
06-14-2009, 11:00 AM
He's also 22 and developing.

Willy is 27 and terrible.

Fixed.

Raisor
06-14-2009, 11:12 AM
Runs Created

Willy T: 18.5, PA-227
CDick: 17.4, PA-147

Kc61
06-14-2009, 11:38 AM
At least Bruce is playing plus defense, and despite his struggles, his OPS+ is 96, which is slightly below average. There's no doubt that he's struggling badly too, but at least he's still close to a league average hitter when he struggles.

OPS or OPS+ is flawed in that it combines two different abilities. You may interpret the numbers as showing that Bruce is "slightly below average." My view is that he is above average in the power department but a .299 OBP and a .212 BA are well below average, to the point where it raises a question whether Bruce should be at AAA right now.

Yet Baker sticks with him. And it is arguable that keeping Bruce at the major league level not only holds back the Reds' offense but hurts the player, who is 22 and has some things to work out.

The approach of keeping him in the majors is reasonable, but I do believe other organizations would send him down. When Encarnacion had these kinds of stretches, the Reds sent him down. But Bruce represents hope to this franchise and they obviously view it as important in their relationship with fans to keep Bruce on the Reds.

At the end of the day, it's tough to succeed in MLB and all the prospect hype in the world, all the RedsZone adoration, all the minor league awards won't help this guy if he doesn't learn to hit offspeed pitches and lay off pitches out of the zone.

Raisor
06-14-2009, 11:43 AM
OPS or OPS+ is flawed in that it combines two different abilities. .

here we go! Haven't had a good OPS disussion in awhile.

Kc61
06-14-2009, 11:49 AM
here we go! Haven't had a good OPS disussion in awhile.

It's not a debate about OPS, which is a useful shortcut stat. But when a player has a good SLG and a weaker OBP there are two ways to look at it. You can add them up, look at his OPS, and end the conversation. Or, you can recognize that the hitter has a strength and a weakness and take it from there.

jojo
06-14-2009, 12:03 PM
Based upon wOBA, Bruce has been essentially a major league average bat thus far (his wOBA=.328).

nate
06-14-2009, 12:03 PM
It's not a debate about OPS, which is a useful shortcut stat. But when a player has a good SLG and a weaker OBP there are two ways to look at it. You can add them up, look at his OPS, and end the conversation. Or, you can recognize that the hitter has a strength and a weakness and take it from there.

I think you expect OPS to measure something it doesn't.

It's pretty rare for a guy to have a good SLG (say, >.450) and a weak OBP (like < .315). I guess there is the odd Matt Williams or Hank Blalock, but it's not real common.

jojo
06-14-2009, 12:05 PM
It's not a debate about OPS, which is a useful shortcut stat. But when a player has a good SLG and a weaker OBP there are two ways to look at it. You can add them up, look at his OPS, and end the conversation. Or, you can recognize that the hitter has a strength and a weakness and take it from there.

But wasn't OBM's point that Bruce's strengths and weaknesses have added up to something like a league average hitter?

Kc61
06-14-2009, 12:08 PM
He's also 22 and developing.

Willy is 27 and developed.

It's not a comparison between them. I was responding to the remark suggesting that Dusty sticks with so called crafty veterans. My point is that the Reds are also sticking with the young Bruce, who also has slumped, and is not a crafty veteran.

My take on Taveras is that he is a useful player when his legs are in top shape. His contributions are based on speed. I've seen that speed as an effective weapon for the Reds and, in previous years, for other teams.

I don't think Taveras' speed has been there for some time now due to injury. He's not the same player and I don't know why the Reds haven't just DL'd him and let him get to full strength. They have plenty of backups who can play centerfield.

The trashing by some of Taveras' defense, the complete focus on this player to the exclusion of other slumping Reds is, IMO, just typical fan overkill. Taveras was a starting centerfielder for two World Series teams so his weaknesses usually aren't the route of all evil. Teams can and do succeed with him - when healthy and running well.

Kc61
06-14-2009, 12:15 PM
I think you expect OPS to measure something it doesn't.

It's pretty rare for a guy to have a good SLG (say, >.450) and a weak OBP (like < .315). I guess there is the odd Matt Williams or Hank Blalock, but it's not real common.

Bruce has a .461 SLG and a .299 OBP.

If you want to add them up and say he is a .760 guy, league average, that's fine -- so be it.

I choose to view him as a hitter with obviously excellent power, 15 home runs, but whose inability to get on base must improve for him to achieve his potential. I remember a day when a .212 BA hitter would almost never be starting in the major leagues.

Depends on how you view it. To me, the total OPS number doesn't tell the story in Bruce's particular case.

jojo
06-14-2009, 12:15 PM
Taveras was a starting centerfielder for two World Series teams so his weaknesses usually aren't the route of all evil. Teams can and do succeed with him.

But neither team won (WT teams are 0-8 in the WS).... maybe that's just the definitive answer....good can fight the good fight but ultimately evil will win in the end....

Heck without Willy Taveras playing for the Astros, the Cards might not have won the world series in 2006....think about that for a minute...


http://www.freesmileys.org/smileys/smiley-sw022.gif (http://www.freesmileys.org)


:cool:

jojo
06-14-2009, 12:22 PM
Seriously though, before this thread morphs into a rehashing of the virtues/evils of OPS, there is no need.

Bruce needs to get on base more. That said, everything he brings to the plate has still resulted in production at a level roughly equal to a league average hitter.

That's just a fact. It's neither good nor bad in and of itself. It neither implies nor denies anything about the purity of the route Bruce has taken to get there. It's just acknowledging where he's at.

Dude needs to get on base more to realize his potential. Sure. Despite that, when looking at his glove and bat, Dude has been a slightly above average player so far in '09.

Ltlabner
06-14-2009, 03:54 PM
Who would have thought that Ltlabner's sig line would be too optimistic?

:laugh:

Props to Caveat Emperor who actually penned my sig line.

membengal
06-14-2009, 07:08 PM
False choices.

Stubbs or Heisey. One of them up, one of them dealt. Time to get off the pot, Walt.

Jpup
06-14-2009, 08:39 PM
I wish someone could explain why Dickerson is not the everyday centerfielder. It's just nonsense. Put him on the bench for 2 days while facing right handed pitchers. I just don't get it. He must not be Dusty's guy.

Chip R
06-15-2009, 12:12 AM
No, I love speed and defense. The problem is he's misplayed a few balls in center so his defense is replaceable, IMO. He has speed, but he hasn't been an agressive base runner. He wanted to swipe 100 bags this season. He'd better hurry.

I'm not one to go hating on our players. I just think his presence in the lineup has not given this club an advantage thus far. But when he's in there, I'm rooting for him.


You're right. I was being faceitious. All during the offseason all we heard was, "Speed and Defense." But, as you said, the defense isn't that good and his speed isn't doing us a lot of good right now.

fearofpopvol1
06-15-2009, 12:30 AM
I wish someone could explain why Dickerson is not the everyday centerfielder. It's just nonsense. Put him on the bench for 2 days while facing right handed pitchers. I just don't get it. He must not be Dusty's guy.

In 1 word...money.

redsfandan
06-15-2009, 09:03 AM
... My take on Taveras is that he is a useful player when his legs are in top shape. His contributions are based on speed. I've seen that speed as an effective weapon for the Reds and, in previous years, for other teams.

I don't think Taveras' speed has been there for some time now due to injury. He's not the same player and I don't know why the Reds haven't just DL'd him and let him get to full strength. They have plenty of backups who can play centerfield.

The trashing by some of Taveras' defense, the complete focus on this player to the exclusion of other slumping Reds is, IMO, just typical fan overkill. ...
I can agree with this. That Taveras turned out to be our biggest offseason acquisition for the outfield automatically made him the '09 whipping boy. Nevermind the (lack of) production we're getting from the other positions, Taveras being in the lineup too much, or even that it could be argued that Nix is outproducing Bruce. Hell Alex Gonzalez isn't doing much offensively but he actually has more doubles than Bruce in 60+ fewer plate appearances.

On May 13th, the Reds were 20-14. They had just finished a 3 game sweep of Arizona in which they had 26 runs and 38 hits. Since then they are 11-17 after being swept, and outscored 18-6, by the Royals. I didn't think the Reds would have a record as bad as the last few seasons (still don't) but thoughts that they could win 15+ more games than last year to have a shot at the playoffs seemed a little optimistic.

Kc61
06-15-2009, 09:50 AM
Reds have a habit of avoiding player moves during road trips. Just my sense that they usually wait until they come home.

Reds now have 13 pitchers. The reason given was the DH -- not much pinch hitting, fewer player moves, good to keep more pitchers fewer hitters.

No DH for the next week. Two series at GABP. No need for 13 pitchers.

Reds should make a move. Hopefully it is a semi-meaningful move to add someone who may help offensively. Not expecting a big trade but there should be some shuffling.

Stubbs is hot right now. Taveras is ice cold. Maybe we see Stubbs for a week and WT sits or even gets DL'd. Or maybe it will just be Castillo again as the extra switch hitter in reserve. Or a smallish trade.

HokieRed
06-15-2009, 09:55 AM
Sutton for a look at 3b?

Kc61
06-15-2009, 10:01 AM
Sutton for a look at 3b?


Or Stubbs and Sutton come up. Some combo of WT, Rosales, Lincoln, or possibly Burton to AAA or DL?

nate
06-15-2009, 10:03 AM
Bruce has a .461 SLG and a .299 OBP.

If you want to add them up and say he is a .760 guy, league average, that's fine -- so be it.

I choose to view him as a hitter with obviously excellent power, 15 home runs, but whose inability to get on base must improve for him to achieve his potential. I remember a day when a .212 BA hitter would almost never be starting in the major leagues.

Depends on how you view it. To me, the total OPS number doesn't tell the story in Bruce's particular case.

Again, I think you expect OPS to measure something it doesn't.

Jpup
06-15-2009, 10:03 AM
Or Stubbs and Sutton come up. Some combo of WT, Rosales, Lincoln, or possibly Burton to AAA or DL?

Why would the Reds bring up Stubbs? The already have Nix, Taveras, Dickerson, Gomes, Bruce, and Hairston to play the outfield.

Brutus
06-15-2009, 12:23 PM
Taveras has gone 33 at-bats without a hit. I saw on CBS Sportsline's fantasy update on him that's the longest hitless stretch for the Reds since Dennis Menke in 1973.

HokieRed
06-15-2009, 12:35 PM
I'd like to see CD get the next 200 at-bats so that we can come to a better assessment of his role, present and future, on this team. It's clear to me that whatever possible difference there might be between WT and CD is more than overridden by the need for us to get more information on CD's future. WT's capabilities are pretty well known at this point.

RichRed
06-15-2009, 01:20 PM
Taveras has gone 33 at-bats without a hit. I saw on CBS Sportsline's fantasy update on him that's the longest hitless stretch for the Reds since Dennis Menke in 1973.

And he hasn't walked in a game since May 23rd. That's 2 singles, 1 double and 0 walks in his last 49 plate appearances. That's pitcher material.

Kc61
06-15-2009, 01:29 PM
Again, I think you expect OPS to measure something it doesn't.


You might elaborate on what you think OPS measures rather than just comment on my expectations.

OPS, by itself, is not a measure of anything. It is a combination of two stats -- OBP and SLG. You can add them up and get OPS. Or you can look at them separately as measuring two different skills.

If you have some other explanation for OPS, I'm sure we'd all love to hear it.

nate
06-15-2009, 01:39 PM
You might elaborate on what you think OPS measures rather than just comment on my expectations.

OPS, by itself, is not a measure of anything.

Yes it is.


It is a combination of two stats -- OBP and SLG. You can add them up and get OPS. Or you can look at them separately as measuring two different skills.

If you have some other explanation for OPS, I'm sure we'd all love to hear it.

OPS measures how often a player gets on base and how many bases he takes from the plate. It's a measure of offensive efficiency from the batter's box.

wheels
06-15-2009, 02:37 PM
And he hasn't walked in a game since May 23rd. That's 2 singles, 1 double and 0 walks in his last 49 plate appearances. That's pitcher material.

It should be DFA material.

Won't happen because of the two year deal. Ugh.

mth123
06-15-2009, 02:44 PM
I'd like to see Bray to the 60 day DL, Burton to AAA and Rosales to AAA. Sutton and Bankston to Cincy.

Sutton plays 3B, Bankston plays 1B (or vice versa). Hernandez and Hanigan go back to rotating and resting more and Hairston platoons in CF with Dickerson and maybe spots at SS once in a while. Willy takes a seat for a while

TRF
06-15-2009, 03:23 PM
You might elaborate on what you think OPS measures rather than just comment on my expectations.

OPS, by itself, is not a measure of anything. It is a combination of two stats -- OBP and SLG. You can add them up and get OPS. Or you can look at them separately as measuring two different skills.

If you have some other explanation for OPS, I'm sure we'd all love to hear it.


I'll give a simple answer. There is a floor to OPS, one that shows a player is bad offensively. I've never seen a .400 OBP .250 SLG player boefore. If you are under .700, you, well, suck.

Big Klu
06-15-2009, 07:01 PM
I'd like to see Bray to the 60 day DL, Burton to AAA and Rosales to AAA. Sutton and Bankston to Cincy.

Sutton plays 3B, Bankston plays 1B (or vice versa). Hernandez and Hanigan go back to rotating and resting more and Hairston platoons in CF with Dickerson and maybe spots at SS once in a while. Willy takes a seat for a while

Wes Bankston has a .295 OBP at Louisville. I don't see how he is going to help.

The only position players who are playing well enough to maybe merit a callup are Drew Stubbs and Drew Sutton. The only other player who might get a look is Wilkin Castillo (again) because of his defensive versatility.

klw
06-15-2009, 07:03 PM
Wes Bankston has a .295 OBP at Louisville. I don't see how he is going to help.

The only position players who are playing well enough to maybe merit a callup are Drew Stubbs and Drew Sutton. The only other player who might get a look is Wilkin Castillo (again) because of his defensive versatility.

Heisey and Frazier should be considered too, IMO. It would be hard to pick Heisey wout bringing up Stubbs too without it being a serious slap in his face and they most likely wouldn't use both.