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reds44
06-12-2009, 03:14 PM
Joey Votto comes back Tuesday. I think there's a chance that happens. I'm pretty sure the Reds have a very good idea when Votto will return, but they don't want to say. If he's coming back Tuesday, you can probably wait till then and not make a move.
http://news.cincinnati.com/apps/pbcs.dll/section?category=blog07&plckController=Blog&plckScript=blogScript&plckElementId=blogDest&plckBlogPage=BlogViewPost&plckPostId=Blog%3ae57bcc87-152a-4f72-96fb-cc08b1f396efPost%3aa99af69f-4094-4419-9c79-4ededd7a1376&sid=sitelife.cincinnati.com

Oh Lord please, let it be true. I think EE is supposed to taking batting practice this weekend and possibily go out on rehab as well.

GAC
06-12-2009, 03:24 PM
EE is scheduled for an MRI on Monday. Doubt he is doing anything until those results come back.

fisch11
06-12-2009, 03:29 PM
If Votto indeed comes back Tuesday, we won't find out until Wednesday.....if you know what I mean.

OnBaseMachine
06-12-2009, 03:52 PM
That would be huge, if true. It would be great if the Reds can take two of three in Kansas City and then get Votto back on Tuesday as the Reds start a six game homestand. Votto's still not enough though. This offense is still poor even with him in there.

traderumor
06-12-2009, 05:44 PM
EE is scheduled for an MRI on Monday. Doubt he is doing anything until those results come back.I read that the MRI was earlier in the week and came back negative, so he is resuming hitting.:confused:

RedsManRick
06-12-2009, 05:46 PM
If Votto indeed comes back Tuesday, we won't find out until Wednesday.....if you know what I mean.

Very good, point. He's come back from this a few times already. Hopefully he's really turned the corner.

VR
06-12-2009, 05:49 PM
Very good, point. He's come back from this a few times already. Hopefully he's really turned the corner.

Perhaps getting it out semi-publicly has helped him as well, not having to worry so much about 'hiding' it within.

That's my .25 cent pyschology degree at work.

Will M
06-12-2009, 06:12 PM
That would be huge, if true. It would be great if the Reds can take two of three in Kansas City and then get Votto back on Tuesday as the Reds start a six game homestand. Votto's still not enough though. This offense is still poor even with him in there.

i agree 100%

lets assume Votto is back soon & EE's return is far off.
lets also assume management wakes up & benches Taveras (using Dickerson +- Hairston in CF).
we would still have pretty big holes at SS & 3B. filling one of them is essential if this team wants to make the playoffs (IMO)

acredsfan
06-12-2009, 07:14 PM
i agree 100%

lets assume Votto is back soon & EE's return is far off.
lets also assume management wakes up & benches Taveras (using Dickerson +- Hairston in CF).
we would still have pretty big holes at SS & 3B. filling one of them is essential if this team wants to make the playoffs (IMO)What hole is there at shortstop? Gonzo is one of the best defenders in the league this year and SS is not a traditionally offensive position. This is one spot I would not be willing to give up defense for offense. I do agree that they need to do something at 3B. Dickerson can be fine in CF, but he still won't provide the power this team needs. If they truly want to compete they will have to put power at 3B and hope Nix/Gomes can keep from entering a prolonged slump and produce. I wouldn't be against replacing Nix in LF for the right player if they can produce consistently although I hope Nix can start to produce like he was expected to early in his career.

OnBaseMachine
06-12-2009, 11:40 PM
Votto update, pregame notes
Posted by JohnFay at 6/12/2009 6:55 PM EDT on Cincinnati.com

Reds general manager Walt Jocketty says when Joey Votto returns is up to Votto.

But it sounds like it wont be immediately after hes eligible to return from the DL. Votto is eligible to come off the DL Sunday.

We really havent put any timetable on it, Jocketty said. But I think he is feeling better and working out.

Votto will go on rehab assignment.

Im not sure when that will be, Jocketty said. Were talking about it.

If Votto came to the Reds and said he wanted to go now, theyd allow it begin it.

When he says hes ready to go hell go, Jocketty said.

http://news.cincinnati.com/apps/pbcs.dll/section?category=blog07&plckController=Blog&plckScript=blogScript&plckElementId=blogDest&plckBlogPage=BlogViewPost&plckPostId=Blog%3ae57bcc87-152a-4f72-96fb-cc08b1f396efPost%3a4a286023-f391-4051-90fa-fa23f460077d&sid=sitelife.cincinnati.com

mth123
06-12-2009, 11:53 PM
Anyone else concerned that the fanbase and the media are looking toward Votto to comeback and rescue this horrible offense? Like the rest of us, I don't know exactly what is going on with Votto, but given the vague descriptions, it would seem like the least likely environment for success in this situation. The pressure of being the savior doesn't seem like its something this guy needs right now.

Cedric
06-13-2009, 12:00 AM
If the Reds don't make some moves fast they are done again. It's time to trade Harang and Arroyo and go for it. The Reds need some major help at multiple positions.

mth123
06-13-2009, 12:06 AM
If the Reds don't make some moves fast they are done again. It's time to trade Harang and Arroyo and go for it. The Reds need some major help at multiple positions.

I've never been convinced about this team, but I can't see a deal of Harang or Arroyo happening while the team is only 2 games out of first and only a game behind in the wild card. I think we're more likely to see a deal involving some of the kids for a proven bat or two. I'm not in favor of kids for rentals in general but it might be the best thing for Joey if somebody else is the "savior" before he returns. It probably wouldn't hurt Jay Bruce' development either.

It may just be that a trade for "now" could be the best thing for the future in this team's case. The team seems to have a lot of depth from which to deal and even if a few kids are dealt, the cupboard won't be bare in the minor leagues.

Degenerate39
06-13-2009, 12:19 AM
If the Reds don't make some moves fast they are done again. It's time to trade Harang and Arroyo and go for it. The Reds need some major help at multiple positions.

I may understand what your trying to say but to me it seems like your saying the Reds should trade Harang and Arroyo to push for the playoffs? If I'm incorrect ignore the following. The Reds need pitching and trading away Harang and Arroyo aren't going to help a thing. Especially with Volquez injured. I agree they need to do something if they want to make the playoffs but trading away two of the best pitchers in the NL isn't going to help a bit IMO. UNLESS some knock out prospects are involved.

Cedric
06-13-2009, 12:47 AM
I may understand what your trying to say but to me it seems like your saying the Reds should trade Harang and Arroyo to push for the playoffs? If I'm incorrect ignore the following. The Reds need pitching and trading away Harang and Arroyo aren't going to help a thing. Especially with Volquez injured. I agree they need to do something if they want to make the playoffs but trading away two of the best pitchers in the NL isn't going to help a bit IMO. UNLESS some knock out prospects are involved.

I don't consider Arroyo one of the best pitchers in the NL. I would still offer him to people out there. There are still some fossils in front offices that love win loss records for pitchers and they might bite on him. He is a innings eater.

Gotta trade talent to get talent. I would gamble on letting go of Harang/Arroyo. I would sink or swim with Maloney/Bailey/Stewart soon.

HokieRed
06-13-2009, 12:51 AM
IMO, if we trade Harang, it's tantamount to saying we have no chance this year or next.

KoryMac5
06-13-2009, 01:15 AM
IMO, if we trade Harang, it's tantamount to saying we have no chance this year or next.

If we hang on to everyone do we really have a shot with Nix, Gomes, Willy T, and Rosales playing crucial roles. I say deal Harang and or Arroyo now why their prices are high and bring up some of the kids from AA and AAA to get younger and more exciting. This team needs an infusion of talent not filler.

johngalt
06-13-2009, 12:07 PM
That would be huge, if true. It would be great if the Reds can take two of three in Kansas City and then get Votto back on Tuesday as the Reds start a six game homestand. Votto's still not enough though. This offense is still poor even with him in there.

I definitely agree that the offense could still use a little help even with Votto back to his earlier form, but also keep in mind that we have yet to see what this offense could do if Votto, Phillips and Bruce were all hitting well at the same time.

When Votto and (at times) Bruce were hitting well early in the year, Phillips was awful. When Phillips did start heating up and had his killer May, Votto was in and out of the lineup and then Bruce started to go into the tailspin he's been in.

Like I said, I do agree it wouldn't hurt to have more offense even when Votto's in the lineup, but I think we could see a vast improvement if they could all 3 start clicking together.

wheels
06-14-2009, 02:09 PM
I definitely agree that the offense could still use a little help even with Votto back to his earlier form, but also keep in mind that we have yet to see what this offense could do if Votto, Phillips and Bruce were all hitting well at the same time.

When Votto and (at times) Bruce were hitting well early in the year, Phillips was awful. When Phillips did start heating up and had his killer May, Votto was in and out of the lineup and then Bruce started to go into the tailspin he's been in.

Like I said, I do agree it wouldn't hurt to have more offense even when Votto's in the lineup, but I think we could see a vast improvement if they could all 3 start clicking together.

Totally agree.

In many ways, the offense has been way worse than even I expected.

They aren't a good offensive team to begin with, but they aren't THIS bad.

Jpup
06-14-2009, 09:37 PM
Totally agree.

In many ways, the offense has been way worse than even I expected.

They aren't a good offensive team to begin with, but they aren't THIS bad.

I think they are who we thought they were.

CrackerJack
06-14-2009, 09:45 PM
I think they are who we thought they were.

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RedsManRick
06-14-2009, 10:36 PM
Totally agree.

In many ways, the offense has been way worse than even I expected.

They aren't a good offensive team to begin with, but they aren't THIS bad.

Well, they're on pace to score 693 runs. That's pretty much exactly what a lot of people around here expected them to be.

What's surprising to most is the run prevention. We're on pace to shave more than 100 runs of last year's runs allowed total.

Falls City Beer
06-14-2009, 10:42 PM
What's surprising to most is the run prevention. We're on pace to shave more than 100 runs of last year's runs allowed total.

Both the bullpen and the starters are due for a correction. I'll say the converse--they're good, but they're not THAT good. Not when three-fifths of your rotation has FIP over 5.00 for quite a while.

Brutus
06-14-2009, 11:16 PM
Both the bullpen and the starters are due for a correction. I'll say the converse--they're good, but they're not THAT good. Not when three-fifths of your rotation has FIP over 5.00 for quite a while.

I don't think they are in for much of a correction. The team FIP is 4.31 and the team RA/g is 4.24. That's pretty close to being on target, in my opinion.

traderumor
06-15-2009, 12:16 AM
I don't think they are in for much of a correction. The team FIP is 4.31 and the team RA/g is 4.24. That's pretty close to being on target, in my opinion.Yea, but you wanna keep on saying that just in case you happens. Then you can look smart when it does.

SMcGavin
06-15-2009, 12:33 AM
I don't think they are in for much of a correction. The team FIP is 4.31 and the team RA/g is 4.24. That's pretty close to being on target, in my opinion.

Where are you seeing that number? Also, FIP is supposed to correlate to ERA, not RA/g. For a normal team RA/g should be higher than FIP. For the Reds Hardball Times has:

FIP 4.52
ERA 3.91

Brutus
06-15-2009, 01:11 AM
Where are you seeing that number? Also, FIP is supposed to correlate to ERA, not RA/g. For a normal team RA/g should be higher than FIP. For the Reds Hardball Times has:

FIP 4.52
ERA 3.91


As far as the team FIP, I used the 13*HR + 3*BB - 2*SO / IP + 3.20 formula. Perhaps THT is using a slightly different formula. I'm not sure.

I've always believed that team FIP can be a decent predictive measure of RA/g for the reasons I mentioned (a good assumption if you have an average defense). Perhaps there is research out there to suggest otherwise, but I've read this in a few places, so I don't think it's too crazy.

* After looking at the Hardball Time's formula, it seems the only difference is that they're adding in HBP and using a league-adjusted number in place of 3.20. That might explain the difference from what I calculated.

fearofpopvol1
06-15-2009, 01:40 AM
Both the bullpen and the starters are due for a correction. I'll say the converse--they're good, but they're not THAT good. Not when three-fifths of your rotation has FIP over 5.00 for quite a while.

FIP isn't the end all be all.

SMcGavin
06-15-2009, 02:20 AM
As far as the team FIP, I used the 13*HR + 3*BB - 2*SO / IP + 3.20 formula. Perhaps THT is using a slightly different formula. I'm not sure.

I've always believed that team FIP can be a decent predictive measure of RA/g for the reasons I mentioned (a good assumption if you have an average defense). Perhaps there is research out there to suggest otherwise, but I've read this in a few places, so I don't think it's too crazy.

* After looking at the Hardball Time's formula, it seems the only difference is that they're adding in HBP and using a league-adjusted number in place of 3.20. That might explain the difference from what I calculated.

NL averages are: 4.23 ERA, 4.23 FIP, 4.54 RA/g

So a team with a FIP and RA/g that are roughly equal is actually pretty lucky (assuming average defense). The Reds defense has been good, so they are definitely capable of finishing the year with an ERA better than FIP would suggest, but the degree of the current spread between the two is unsustainable IMO. Obviously I would love to be wrong.

Patrick Bateman
06-15-2009, 02:21 AM
FIP isn't the end all be all.

I think FCB would be the first one to tell you that. But it's a pretty quick ballpark estimate, ala OPS.

GAC
06-15-2009, 10:08 PM
Well, they're on pace to score 693 runs. That's pretty much exactly what a lot of people around here expected them to be

I still hold to my pre-season prediction that they won't score 700 runs. ;)


What's surprising to most is the run prevention. We're on pace to shave more than 100 runs of last year's runs allowed total.

It's good to see that their pitching is improved. Their defense, which may have seen a slight improvement, is still near bottom tier in the NL the last I heard. But I agree, I didn't think this staff, which had question marks, would be doing as well as they have so far.

But that is what upsets me so much when I look at this current offense. Walt/Baker have assembled an offensive unit that really has put a lot of pressure on this staff. And at some point, that has to start having a psychological affect on our pitchers.

Baker is not an idiot. And it may very well be true that he's a "player's manager", and is trying to find those players that are teachable and can adapt to his philosophy and approach to the game.... "you can lead a horse to water, but you can't make him drink". But I question both he and Walt's player evaluation in finding the appropriate type of players to fit that philosophy. And I'll be honest - I still don't know what that philisophical approach is? Is it an emphasis on the short game? Then they get a big fat "F" simply looking at the players they have assembled.

I give them credit for getting rid of some of the dregs off this roster at season's end last year. But what have they replaced that with? IMO, they really should be hanging their head in shame for the construction of this offense. And there are no quick solutions in sight.

_Sir_Charles_
06-15-2009, 10:27 PM
Their defense, which may have seen a slight improvement, is still near bottom tier in the NL the last I heard.

I'm certainly no stat-wizard, to say the least (I'm not even sure where the best place would be to look for defensive stats), but I thought we were right near the top of the league in terms of most defensive stats. At least that's what I keep seeing in game threads and other threads here on the ORG. Or have I been misinformed?

CaiGuy
06-16-2009, 03:53 PM
I'm certainly no stat-wizard, to say the least (I'm not even sure where the best place would be to look for defensive stats), but I thought we were right near the top of the league in terms of most defensive stats. At least that's what I keep seeing in game threads and other threads here on the ORG. Or have I been misinformed?

The Reds currently have the 3rd best UZR in the majors. Many other fielding metrics show similar results.

_Sir_Charles_
06-16-2009, 05:39 PM
The Reds currently have the 3rd best UZR in the majors. Many other fielding metrics show similar results.

That's what I was thinking. I was just surprised by that statement that GAC made about the D. I haven't actually looked up any numbers, but from what I've seen...it's much improved. The errors may still be higher than they should be, but the range and the making of the hard and easy plays is much improved IMO.