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Kc61
06-13-2009, 11:16 AM
Team went 4-6 during last stretch, now 31-29. 14-14 at home, 17-15 on the road. 257 runs scored and 252 allowed. Votto, Volquez, EE all still out. Reds pitched superbly during this stretch but the offense, which had been improving, simply collapsed.

Offense -- Reds scored 30 runs over the last ten games, but nine were in one outing vs. Cards. So team scored 21 over 9 games, barely over 2 per game. OPS had been up to .742, ninth in league, last time. Now, it's .713 and fourteenth in the NL. League average OPS is .736. Only SD and SF with worse OPS numbers. Against lefty pitching, Reds OPS is .708 - and Reds lineup is mostly right handed.

Reds team OBP is .320 tied for 14-15th in league with SD. SLG had been above league average at .412 last time, now has fallen to .395, below league average of .404. BA is .247 down from .256.

Some OPS numbers for starting players -- Gonazalez .581, Taveras .583, Hernandez .670. Some other starting player stats -- Hairston OBP is .302. Bruce OBP is .300, BA is .211. Rosales, a fill in but now with 128 PA, OPS of .611.

Gomes with OPS of .940 and Hanigan with .397 OBP and .310 BA deserve high praise for not being swept up in the tide of these offensive woes. Phillips and Nix with OPSs around .850.

Pitching -- Team ERA had slipped back over 4.00 previously, but came on strong in most recent ten. Team ERA is third best in NL at 3.85, trailing only LA and SF who play in more pitcher friendly stadiums. Overall ERA improvement resulted from starters' ERA improvement from 4.38 to 4.07, now sixth best in league. Bullpen ERA essentially unchanged, now 3.36 from previous 3.40. BAA for Reds pitching fourth best in league at .246. Reds lead the NL in save percentage with 80 percent.

Reds have five relievers with ERAs of 2.50 or less, Massett, Rhodes, Cordero, Herrera, Weathers. Cueto at 6-3 with 2.33 is staff ace. Harang ERA at 3.74 after two good outings. Arroyo, Owings and (fill in) Maloney all at 5.00 or better.

Fielding -- Reds have best DER in the National League. Team did make 8 errors in the last stretch, now with 43 and a .981 FPCT, slightly worse than last time.

Need to generate some offense.

mth123
06-13-2009, 11:24 AM
Some OPS numbers for starting players -- Gonazalez .581, Taveras .583, Hernandez .670.


Walt's off-season. Ignore/deny the glaring need at SS on the basis of Gonzalez coming back, sign Willy and deal for Hernandez (who has actually been quite a positive in spite of the OPS number.)

I think Hernandez is gassed and should be DHing this series in KC to get some rest.

Kc61
06-13-2009, 11:30 AM
Walt's off-season. Ignore/deny the glaring need at SS on the basis of Gonzalez coming back, sign Willy and deal for Hernandez (who has actually been quite a positive in spite of the OPS number.)

I think Hernandez is gassed and should be DHing this series in KC to get some rest.

I agree on Hernandez, he probably needs some rest.

Keep in mind, though, that Taveras and Gonzo are playing positions viewed by the Reds as primarily defensive. Offensive expectation for them by Reds probably not too high. Not defending their hitting numbers but Reds have emphasized defense up the middle.

Hernandez is playing first base. The corner infielders, Hernandez and Hairston, both admirable players, both gamers and contributing, but their offensive numbers are less than stellar at power/offensive positions.

Of course, these are not the natural positions for Hernandez and Hairston, but just looking at first and third base production, team needs more at those spots.

Hairston got rest yesterday notably.

mth123
06-13-2009, 11:40 AM
I agree on Hernandez, he probably needs some rest.

Keep in mind, though, that Taveras and Gonzo are playing positions viewed by the Reds as primarily defensive. Offensive expectation for them by Reds probably not too high.

Hernandez is playing first base. The corner infielders, Hernandez and Hairston, both admirable players, both gamers and contributing, but their offensive numbers are less than stellar at power/offensive positions.

Hairston got rest yesterday notably.

Hernandez/Hanigan makes a pretty strong tandem behind the plate, but both are being overused in Votto's absence and its showing up in Hernandez numbers and Hanigan looks a little tired on the field as well. Hairston is a fine bench player with possibilities of being the RH side of a platoon. He's showed more pop than expected, but he's also over-exposed.

I still think ignoring SS and choosing Willy as the OF addition creates this situation though. A stronger offensive OF and a better all around SS would make the need to ride the catching duo so hard and play Hairston so much a less urgent thing. Hernandez has been one of the top three hitters until his recent swoon. In his envisioned role, I think he'd be doing better. Votto's situation is cetainly not the Reds fault, but the desperation it has created because the offense was so thin to begin with most certainly is. I haven't seen any of the advertised GM smarts from Walt Jocketty. I see a guy who probably deserved to get canned by his last organization.

4256 Hits
06-13-2009, 02:08 PM
Hernández at 1st base: 211 .294 .289 .584 {scary}

How this team went into the year w/o a back up 1st basemen is a joke.

Kc61
06-13-2009, 03:50 PM
I still think ignoring SS and choosing Willy as the OF addition creates this situation though. A stronger offensive OF and a better all around SS would make the need to ride the catching duo so hard and play Hairston so much a less urgent thing. Hernandez has been one of the top three hitters until his recent swoon. In his envisioned role, I think he'd be doing better. Votto's situation is cetainly not the Reds fault, but the desperation it has created because the offense was so thin to begin with most certainly is. I haven't seen any of the advertised GM smarts from Walt Jocketty. I see a guy who probably deserved to get canned by his last organization.

Since Reds are over .500 it's a little rough to trash the GM. He's dramatically changing the team and it takes time.

I also don't see how the weak hitting of SS and CF is relevant to riding the catchers so hard. I see two distinct problems.

First, the Reds are very thin at the power positions. They began the season with no starting left fielder, relying on a combo of backups. Bruce isn't ready to be a mainstay -- guy is hitting .211. And at first and third, they don't have a strong hitting backup. That's what is putting the pressure on Hernandez, pressed into first base duty.

Second, their OBP guys have failed. That's the CF/SS problem. CF is fixable, though, with Stubbs/Dickerson in CF. At SS, Reds haven't made a move yet, either Cozart will get the shot or they will acquire somebody. They certainly didn't try to fill that spot in the draft.

In a way it's too bad the pitching all came together in 2009 instead of 2010 because the Reds' offense wasn't ready this year. Now, with a team ERA of 3.85 and one of the best staffs in the NL, there is pressure on the team to fix the offense more quickly. I think they'll try.

kpresidente
06-13-2009, 04:03 PM
Walt's off-season. Ignore/deny the glaring need at SS on the basis of Gonzalez coming back, sign Willy and deal for Hernandez (who has actually been quite a positive in spite of the OPS number.)

I think Hernandez is gassed and should be DHing this series in KC to get some rest.

I agree with Hernandez and Willy T, but here's the guy most of Redszone wanted to play SS:

Khalil Greene - .200|.287|.295 - .582 OPS

Hmmm...I'd rather keep Gonzalez and the money.

Always Red
06-13-2009, 04:15 PM
Yep, they're hard to watch right now, in a way (though I am very much enjoying watching good pitching and a defense that can make at least the routine play).

Even usually sunny GG said last night on TV that with this team down 3 runs in the middle of the 7th, it's hard to think they can score 3 runs and make a game of it.

BUT. Everyone knew this was a flawed team at the beginning of the year. There are some major holes in the lineup, no doubt. A lineup that starts (as last night's did, 1-5) with Taveras, Gonzalez, Phillips, Nix and Gomes is not going to strike fear in the heart of any pitcher in MLB. BTW, I do think Gonzalez is playing a very nice SS right now, and showing signs of coming around with the bat.

Anyway, I hang my hat on the fact that hitting is easier to find than pitching. If they choose to move a pitcher (Arroyo, Bailey?, I hope not Harang) they will become more valuable as the summer progresses. I'm trying to remember that this is a work in progress, and IMO this is a better team than last years. I didn't think so during ST, but the same guys they had last year really have pitched better this time around.

Harang is the key. He is the anchor and the horse. If they choose to trade him (he is probably the most valuable pitcher they have, and will bring the most in return), I think the next 2 years are a write off.

mth123
06-13-2009, 06:16 PM
Since Reds are over .500 it's a little rough to trash the GM. He's dramatically changing the team and it takes time.

I also don't see how the weak hitting of SS and CF is relevant to riding the catchers so hard. I see two distinct problems.

First, the Reds are very thin at the power positions. They began the season with no starting left fielder, relying on a combo of backups. Bruce isn't ready to be a mainstay -- guy is hitting .211. And at first and third, they don't have a strong hitting backup. That's what is putting the pressure on Hernandez, pressed into first base duty.

Second, their OBP guys have failed. That's the CF/SS problem. CF is fixable, though, with Stubbs/Dickerson in CF. At SS, Reds haven't made a move yet, either Cozart will get the shot or they will acquire somebody. They certainly didn't try to fill that spot in the draft.

In a way it's too bad the pitching all came together in 2009 instead of 2010 because the Reds' offense wasn't ready this year. Now, with a team ERA of 3.85 and one of the best staffs in the NL, there is pressure on the team to fix the offense more quickly. I think they'll try.

I think signing Willy and pushing the Dickerson/Hairston combo to LF is the very reason this team is short of bats at the power spots. A bigger bat in LF means that maybe they go with somebody like Rosales at 1B more often and let Hernandez get his proper rest. Signing Willy and making the choice of playing two weaker CF type hitters in LF coming into the season is the root of all these ills IMO.