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dougdirt
06-15-2009, 01:11 PM
Yonder Alonso just went opposite field to give Carolina a 2-0 lead in the first as his HR goes off the left center scoreboard about half way up. Todd Frazier follows him up with a single.

Kc61
06-15-2009, 01:20 PM
Is this the last day of the first half for the Southern League? If so, might we see Heisey and Frazier move up to AAA in a few days? Maybe Wood too?

JaxRed
06-15-2009, 01:25 PM
It's more likely, if they are waiting for a particular event, to be tied to start of Short season teams.

HokieRed
06-15-2009, 01:26 PM
June 21 is end of first half.

mace
06-15-2009, 01:28 PM
No offense to Tom Cochran. I'm sure, at age 26, that he's a gentleman and scholar. He has also pitched two hitless innings and has a small-sample ERA of 2.13. But why is he starting in a rotation that includes Travis Wood, Zach Stewart, Jordan Smith, James Avery and Dallas Buck?

JaxRed
06-15-2009, 01:29 PM
Avery on DL

GOYA
06-15-2009, 01:31 PM
Huntsville is up 3-0 over Jacksonville in the 2nd. I'm not sure what the "magic number" is for Huntsville. They are currently 2 games up on Carolina.

dougdirt
06-15-2009, 01:35 PM
Huntsville is up 3-0 over Jacksonville in the 2nd. I'm not sure what the "magic number" is for Huntsville. They are currently 2 games up on Carolina.

I believe they said it was 7 early in the broadcast. Carolina in a rain delay currently. Radar suggests, according to the announcers, doesn't look like the rain will last long.

HokieRed
06-15-2009, 01:36 PM
What's up with Avery?

JaxRed
06-15-2009, 01:38 PM
Forearm tightness. Not expected to be big deal, Smit on DL too, (last I saw) for back spasms.

aubashbrother
06-15-2009, 02:30 PM
hopefully when Frazier is promoted to AAA they get him some regular reps at 3rd. Still dont understand why the Francisco at 3rd project has lasted this long

dougdirt
06-15-2009, 02:32 PM
Carolina back underway.

Kc61
06-15-2009, 02:33 PM
hopefully when Frazier is promoted to AAA they get him some regular reps at 3rd. Still dont understand why the Francisco at 3rd project has lasted this long

Probably because Francisco is the youngest player on the Carolina team, has a great throwing arm, has 27 extra base hits this year, and leads his team in RBI with 43.

For all his weaknesses, it's easy to see why the Reds stick with him.

dougdirt
06-15-2009, 02:36 PM
Probably because Francisco is the youngest player on the Carolina team, has a great throwing arm, has 27 extra base hits this year, and leads his team in RBI with 43.

For all his weaknesses, it's easy to see why the Reds stick with him.

Sure, the Reds should stick with him. The question is whether he should be playing in AA or back in Sarasota where he could be working on improving the biggest weakness in his game that unless it improves greatly, will not allow him to even be a major league regular thats average.

Kc61
06-15-2009, 02:43 PM
Sure, the Reds should stick with him. The question is whether he should be playing in AA or back in Sarasota where he could be working on improving the biggest weakness in his game that unless it improves greatly, will not allow him to even be a major league regular thats average.


He certainly could have started at High A. But he's improving at AA, his numbers are getting better. His strikeout total has levelled off and isn't bad for a power guy. Whether he can take a few more walks, we'll see.

Francisco is young enough to repeat AA next year. I think next season will be more telling. He'll turn 22 next week.

HokieRed
06-15-2009, 02:51 PM
I don't see that there's a lot at issue in whether Francisco works on his walks at Sarasota or Carolina. We all know what he needs to do. Might even be the case that he's better off working on that particular skill at the higher level where the pitching is more consistent. Seems to me the real issue here is getting Frazier some PT at 3rd where most of us probably see him playing in Cinti.--though it's certainly possible he could end up in a corner OF spot with the Reds too.

dougdirt
06-15-2009, 02:51 PM
Sure, he could have started at High A. But he's improving at AA, his numbers are getting better. His strikeout total has levelled off and isn't bad for a power guy. Whether he can take a few more walks, we'll see.

Francisco is young enough to repeat AA next year. I think next season will be more telling. He'll turn 22 next week.

The problem is, if there is even an inkling that he may repeat AA, why didn't he repeat High A this year, at least to start, so a guy who is much more advanced could get reps at 3B, then when he was moved to AAA you could call up Francisco?

As for his numbers getting better, slightly. But they still represent exactly what he did last year.


Split PA ISOP BB% K% BABIP GB% LD%
April 91 .205 3.3% 24.2% .258 45% 19%
May 127 .192 3.1% 22.0% .299 42% 27%
June 57 .231 5.3% 19.3% .316 51% 17%

The walks or strikeouts are really going to be the key. Either Francisco has to cut his strikeout rate in half or he is going to have to walk at least twice as often as he generally does. Its not rocket science and the fact that the Reds don't seem to be that concerned by it is somewhat bothersome. The key numbers there are ISOP, BB% and K% and all fall directly in line with Francisco's career rates.

mace
06-15-2009, 02:58 PM
Wow, David Espinosa plays for West Tenn. (I'm sure some of you knew that, but, well, not me.)

Kc61
06-15-2009, 03:03 PM
As for his numbers getting better, slightly. But they still represent exactly what he did last year.


Split PA ISOP BB% K% BABIP GB% LD%
April 91 .205 3.3% 24.2% .258 45% 19%
May 127 .192 3.1% 22.0% .299 42% 27%
June 57 .231 5.3% 19.3% .316 51% 17%

The walks or strikeouts are really going to be the key. Either Francisco has to cut his walk rate in half or he is going to have to walk at least twice as often as he generally does. Its not rocket science and the fact that the Reds don't seem to be that concerned by it is somewhat bothersome. The key numbers there are ISOP, BB% and K% and all fall directly in line with Francisco's career rates.

I don't have access to all the monthly stats for Francisco, but it seems to me that his hitting has improved and he is playing at a level fairly high for a player of his age. As far as I'm concerned, he has 1 1/2 seasons remaining at AA to get his walk rate improved. Maybe it's achievable, maybe not, but meanwhile his other attributes -- power and the knack for driving in runs -- are still evident.

This guy's upside is so high that the Reds need to work with him on this. It would be a shame if he doesn't make it.

dougdirt
06-15-2009, 03:04 PM
Carolina back in a rain delay.

JaxRed
06-15-2009, 03:05 PM
Espinosa just got picked up from Indy ball a couple weeks ago. There is no regular 3b at AAA. They could move Frazier there in a hearbeat if they wanted to.

dougdirt
06-15-2009, 03:05 PM
I don't have access to all the monthly stats for Francisco, but it seems to me that his hitting has improved and he is playing at a level fairly high for a player of his age. As far as I'm concerned, he has 1 1/2 seasons remaining at AA to get his walk rate improved. Maybe it's achievable, maybe not, but meanwhile his other attributes -- power and the knack for driving in runs -- are still evident.

This guy's upside is so high that the Reds need to work with him on this. It would be a shame if he doesn't make it.
I guess the main issue with that is that him being at AA when he could easily have worked on his problems in High A is that it led to Todd Frazier, a better prospect, being shifted to another position when he is more advanced and can be ready for the Majors by September 2009.

Kc61
06-15-2009, 03:13 PM
I guess the main issue with that is that him being at AA when he could easily have worked on his problems in High A is that it led to Todd Frazier, a better prospect, being shifted to another position when he is more advanced and can be ready for the Majors by September 2009.

Maybe. But Frazier was moved to the outfield also because the Reds thought they have a third baseman for the next two years in EE, not expecting him to get hurt. And all the talk about Frazier at third forgets that EE will be back and, according to Jocketty last week, EE is the third baseman.

So Frazier probably has a better chance of playing in LF. EE will play third when healthy.

traderumor
06-15-2009, 03:20 PM
The problem is, if there is even an inkling that he may repeat AA, why didn't he repeat High A this year, at least to start, so a guy who is much more advanced could get reps at 3B, then when he was moved to AAA you could call up Francisco?

As for his numbers getting better, slightly. But they still represent exactly what he did last year.


Split PA ISOP BB% K% BABIP GB% LD%
April 91 .205 3.3% 24.2% .258 45% 19%
May 127 .192 3.1% 22.0% .299 42% 27%
June 57 .231 5.3% 19.3% .316 51% 17%

The walks or strikeouts are really going to be the key. Either Francisco has to cut his strikeout rate in half or he is going to have to walk at least twice as often as he generally does. Its not rocket science and the fact that the Reds don't seem to be that concerned by it is somewhat bothersome. The key numbers there are ISOP, BB% and K% and all fall directly in line with Francisco's career rates.Maybe the Reds plan makes as much sense to them as yours does to you.

dougdirt
06-15-2009, 03:22 PM
Carolina wins in a rain shortened game.

dougdirt
06-15-2009, 03:24 PM
Maybe. But Frazier was moved to the outfield also because the Reds thought they have a third baseman for the next two years in EE, not expecting him to get hurt. And all the talk about Frazier at third forgets that EE will be back and, according to Jocketty last week, EE is the third baseman.

So Frazier probably has a better chance of playing in LF. EE will play third when healthy.

Perhaps. Its going to be interesting to see how it plays out, but if Alonso remains in the organization, I just don't see anywhere for Frazier to play LF if that happens. However it does still leave open the option for Frazier at 3B. Maybe the Reds see a much larger plan than I do, but I just can't find a way that it all makes sense unless they have no intentions of keeping Yonder Alonso.

mth123
06-15-2009, 03:28 PM
Maybe. But Frazier was moved to the outfield also because the Reds thought they have a third baseman for the next two years in EE, not expecting him to get hurt. And all the talk about Frazier at third forgets that EE will be back and, according to Jocketty last week, EE is the third baseman.

So Frazier probably has a better chance of playing in LF. EE will play third when healthy.

I'd guess since Frazier was a SS, they're pretty confident he can play 3B. IMO, they want him getting reps in the OF so he can be a multi-position option in the big leagues. He looks a lot like a guy who doesn't have the glove for the middle every day and maybe not quite enough bat for the corners. But he has enough of both to play a lot at many positions. If he hits, he can always stick somewhere at that point, but why not get him prepared for the supersub role anyway?

GIDP
06-15-2009, 03:40 PM
I'd be surprised if the Reds werent confident in Fraziers defensive ability. If they were they wouldnt have him playing 3 positions and stuck with him at SS for as long as they did in A ball.

traderumor
06-15-2009, 03:51 PM
Perhaps. Its going to be interesting to see how it plays out, but if Alonso remains in the organization, I just don't see anywhere for Frazier to play LF if that happens. However it does still leave open the option for Frazier at 3B. Maybe the Reds see a much larger plan than I do, but I just can't find a way that it all makes sense unless they have no intentions of keeping Yonder Alonso.Badly needed depth so that each season doesn't turn into "if only [fill in current star or two that is supposed to carry the team to the promised land] didn't get injured"?

krm1580
06-15-2009, 04:10 PM
I don't have access to all the monthly stats for Francisco, but it seems to me that his hitting has improved and he is playing at a level fairly high for a player of his age. As far as I'm concerned, he has 1 1/2 seasons remaining at AA to get his walk rate improved. Maybe it's achievable, maybe not, but meanwhile his other attributes -- power and the knack for driving in runs -- are still evident.

This guy's upside is so high that the Reds need to work with him on this. It would be a shame if he doesn't make it.

I was always really high on Francisco based on his combination of age/level/production. After seeing him play though, I am no where near as optimistic of his future. I am not a scout but I believe his negatives and positives are inextricably tied to his swing and you cannot fixt one without impacting the other.

His swing is long, but the bigger part of the problem I believe is that he really for lack of a better description, coils his body up like a spring and then lets everything loose. The uncoiling and long swing generates tremendous torque and bat speed hence the power, but the time it takes to uncoil everything means he needs to start his swing earlier, meaning less time to determine whether a pitch is a ball or a strike. The results are obvious and I think will be exploited more as he guys higher up the chain.

They might be able to get him quicker to the ball, but I am not sure they can do it without cutting down on his swing, therefore cutting down on his power. So I guess it comes down to what is a fair balance.

mth123
06-15-2009, 04:14 PM
Perhaps. Its going to be interesting to see how it plays out, but if Alonso remains in the organization, I just don't see anywhere for Frazier to play LF if that happens. However it does still leave open the option for Frazier at 3B. Maybe the Reds see a much larger plan than I do, but I just can't find a way that it all makes sense unless they have no intentions of keeping Yonder Alonso.

Personally, I still like EdE at 3B until hopefully Soto takes the job. In the meantine the corners will be Alonso at 1B, EdE at 3B, Votto in LF and Bruce in RF. Frazier will be the Mark Derosa style, suppersub who backs all of them up in addition to occassional time at SS and 2B. With Frazier a RH bat and 3 of those corners lefties, it seems like a pretty good plan IMO. The offense should be ok with that plan. Add some combo of Dickerson/Stubbs'Heisey for CF, Phillips at 2B and only need an answer at SS and a tandem partner for Hanigan. Janish for defense and Danny Dorn or Juan Francisco as the Matt Stairs clone may even complete a pretty strong bench with the second catcher, Frazier and the odd man out in CF. The present really sucks, but if they don't screw it up, the future is still very bright IMO.

fearofpopvol1
06-15-2009, 04:19 PM
Personally, I still like EdE at 3B until hopefully Soto takes the job. In the meantine the corners will be Alonso at 1B, EdE at 3B, Votto in LF and Bruce in RF. Frazier will be the Mark Derosa style, suppersub who backs all of them up in addition to occassional time at SS and 2B. With Frazier a RH bat and 3 of those corners lefties, it seems like a pretty good plan IMO. The offense should be ok with that plan. Add some combo of Dickerson/Stubbs'Heisey for CF, Phillips at 2B and only need an answer at SS and a tandem partner for Hanigan. Janish for defense and Danny Dorn or Juan Francisco as the Matt Stairs clone may even complete a pretty strong bench with the second catcher, Frazier and the odd man out in CF. The present really sucks, but if they don't screw it up, the future is still very bright IMO.

While it's good for Frazier to play multiple positions...I think his defense is better than EdE's at 3B. I think his bat is or will be similar. Frazier might actually hit for a better average than EdE too.

GOYA
06-15-2009, 04:19 PM
Huntsville is up 3-0 over Jacksonville in the 2nd. I'm not sure what the "magic number" is for Huntsville. They are currently 2 games up on Carolina.

Huntsville won the first of a double header, 7-2

They are losing 3-0 early in the 2nd game.

The guy doing radio for Hunstville, is not good. :)

Caveat Emperor
06-15-2009, 04:20 PM
And all the talk about Frazier at third forgets that EE will be back and, according to Jocketty last week, EE is the third baseman.

So Frazier probably has a better chance of playing in LF. EE will play third when healthy.

Really, if the team insists on having Edwin play on a regular basis (and I'm not convinced that he should be anything other than a bench bat, at this point), he should be the one transitioning out to LF on his rehab assignment to make room for Frazier, not the other way around.

Playing Edwin at 3rd is a surefire way to bleed runs and increase pitcher workload due to errors and missed plays. The fact that the brain trust believes he is anything approaching acceptable-ML level at 3b is astounding to me.

And that's not even getting into his complete lack of any sort of plate approach when hitting.

mth123
06-15-2009, 04:38 PM
While it's good for Frazier to play multiple positions...I think his defense is better than EdE's at 3B. I think his bat is or will be similar. Frazier might actually hit for a better average than EdE too.

Frazier may be better at 3B. I fear he's a tweener though. I like his bat well enough, I'm just not yet convinced its enough to be a day in-day out corner player in the major leagues though. He's a bit of a hacker up there (though better than Valaika, Francisco and Soto) and his power looks good but still is not a certainty. EdE hit 26 HR in the major leagues in 2008. If the power/hitting continues at the big league level, he'll win the job and EdE will be dealt or let walk. I'd love to see him take the job, but I wouldn't build a plan with him already penciled in.

There is also an element of wanting a good team with good players on the bench. The team is maximized with EdE starting and Frazier providing solid depth at lots of spots than if EdE is sent packing, Frazier plays 3B and the team has no reasonable depth at the corner spots. I don't really see EdE being a reasonable option as a bench player. Usually teams don't get players with such promise in the back-up spots unless they are young and cheap. Frazier fits.

TRF
06-15-2009, 04:39 PM
Sure, the Reds should stick with him. The question is whether he should be playing in AA or back in Sarasota where he could be working on improving the biggest weakness in his game that unless it improves greatly, will not allow him to even be a major league regular thats average.

My understanding of the FSL, and correct me if I am wrong, is it is an extreme pitcher's league. big parks, lots of foul territory. Do I have that right? I'm asking, especially about the foul territory. Francisco dominated a league that suppresses power. He didn't win any awards for BA or even OBP, but powerwise, he owned that league, and power is his game. AA RIGHT NOW is a better league for him. better pitchers, true, but it's good for his development to go a league a year. Maybe he does repeat AA. I'd be ok with that, but he's earned his spot. And he's adjusting. his OPS has gone up every month this year, and for June he's sporting an .870 OPS. not bad for a 21 year old kid. (22 in 9 days).

Again, unlike a few others, he's eaned his promotion. Frazier might be the better prospect, but the Reds don't envision him at 3B. They see him as a LF. I don't think that's going to change because anyone THINKS he could play 3B.

mth123
06-15-2009, 04:44 PM
Josh Felhauer (7th Rd) is 2 for 3 with a single and line shot double in the CWS today. Its the 5th inning.

OnBaseMachine
06-15-2009, 04:50 PM
Josh Felhauer (7th Rd) is 2 for 3 with a single and line shot double in the CWS today. Its the 5th inning.

Baseball America really likes Fellhauer. He's supposedly one of the best defensive center fielders in college baseball according to BA's scouting report on him. They project him as an average to above-average hitter and a potential big league starter.

mth123
06-15-2009, 04:55 PM
Baseball America really likes Fellhauer. He's supposedly one of the best defensive center fielders in college baseball according to BA's scouting report on him. They project him as an average to above-average hitter and a potential big league starter.

I'm no expert and I'm seeing him for the first time today, but he looks really good to me. Hard to judge with those awful metal bats though.

redhawk61
06-15-2009, 05:35 PM
Baseball America really likes Fellhauer. He's supposedly one of the best defensive center fielders in college baseball according to BA's scouting report on him. They project him as an average to above-average hitter and a potential big league starter.
Everything about him reminds me of Heisey

HokieRed
06-15-2009, 05:40 PM
Re Francisco, it's easier to learn the zone against better pitchers.

Mario-Rijo
06-15-2009, 06:53 PM
Frazier may be better at 3B. I fear he's a tweener though. I like his bat well enough, I'm just not yet convinced its enough to be a day in-day out corner player in the major leagues though. He's a bit of a hacker up there (though better than Valaika, Francisco and Soto) and his power looks good but still is not a certainty. EdE hit 26 HR in the major leagues in 2008. If the power/hitting continues at the big league level, he'll win the job and EdE will be dealt or let walk. I'd love to see him take the job, but I wouldn't build a plan with him already penciled in.

There is also an element of wanting a good team with good players on the bench. The team is maximized with EdE starting and Frazier providing solid depth at lots of spots than if EdE is sent packing, Frazier plays 3B and the team has no reasonable depth at the corner spots. I don't really see EdE being a reasonable option as a bench player. Usually teams don't get players with such promise in the back-up spots unless they are young and cheap. Frazier fits.

Frazier a part time player and hacker? I don't agree at all. Besides his sample size at AA this year in which he is a shade under his career norms, he's always been just the opposite of a hacker. 1006 Career minor league PA's 94 BB's. He's roughly about 7 total walks off his normal pace this year which would put him at right about 100 BB's in 1000 PA's or 10% of the time which is a good % for someone his age. Maybe his pop won't play as well as we had hoped at one point but I still expect a very solid all around starting 3B and #5-6 place hitter. I too can see Edwin type numbers from him with better defense. He's playing LF IMO because he can a lot more adequately than Francisco.

GOYA
06-15-2009, 08:03 PM
Player AVG
Hopper RF .277
Stubbs CF .309
Sutton 1B .253
Barker DH .227
Bnkstn 3B .252
Dorn LF .226
Griffin 2B .232
Richar SS .292
Tatum C .243

Jukich P

As a starter, Jukich is 3-0 with an ERA of 1.00

The Bats were swept in an earlier 4 game series at Norfolk. We scored 4 runs total in the 4 games.

GOYA
06-15-2009, 08:22 PM
Jukich's ERA as a starter is not 1.00 anymore.

4-0 Tide

GOYA
06-15-2009, 08:37 PM
Barker jacks one.

4-1 Tide

texasdave
06-15-2009, 08:38 PM
Sarasota batting in the bottom of the second has come up with two (make that three) runs. Keltavious Jones looks as if he is making his first appearance of the season.

texasdave
06-15-2009, 08:44 PM
Looking at the Bats' roster it shows them having eight infielders and three outfielders. Interesting.

texasdave
06-15-2009, 08:48 PM
Tom Cochran pitched 5 scoreless innings to get the win for Carolina today. Cochran is a little (lot?) old for AA at 26. But isn't said that left-handers take a little longer to develop? Signed out of an independent league, Cochran's numbers (albeit in limited action) are pretty impressive. 15 2/3 IP 9 H 3 ER 4 BB 16 K.

GOYA
06-15-2009, 09:00 PM
Looking at the Bats' roster it shows them having eight infielders and three outfielders. Interesting.

Bankston and Dorn are both listed as IF. They both play OF too.

Jukich has settled down nicely and struck out the side in the 3rd


Player IP H R ER BB SO HR ERA
Jukich 3.0 4 4 4 2 4 1 5.71

3 hits and 1 BB were in the 1st.

OnBaseMachine
06-15-2009, 10:01 PM
Stubbs is 0-for-3 but has stolen his 23rd base.

GOYA
06-15-2009, 11:02 PM
Bats lose 5-1


Player AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO AVG
Hopper RF 5 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 .275
Stubbs CF 5 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 .301
Sutton 1B 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 3 .244
Barker DH 3 1 2 0 0 1 1 1 0 .235
Bnkstn 3B 4 0 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 .257
Dorn LF 4 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 .226
Griffin 2B 4 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 .233
Richar SS 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 0 .288
Tatum C 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 .236

OnBaseMachine
06-16-2009, 02:17 AM
Junior Martinez has now gone four straight appearances - spanning seven innings - without allowing a hit. He's walked three and struckout nine during than span. I remember Mario Soto saying some nice things about Martinez last year. He's supposedly got a big arm, so he's worth keeping an eye on if he can hone his control.

dougdirt
06-16-2009, 02:48 AM
Junior Martinez has now gone four straight appearances - spanning seven innings - without allowing a hit. He's walked three and struckout nine during than span. I remember Mario Soto saying some nice things about Martinez last year. He's supposedly got a big arm, so he's worth keeping an eye on if he can hone his control.

He does indeed have a big arm. He has hit 97 this season and works 92-94. He has been impressive of late.