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View Full Version : if we sell then who do we sell?



Will M
06-15-2009, 08:25 PM
lets say the Reds decide to be sellers come July. i would like them to move the following players:

1. Arroyo. some people might argue we should move both Arroyo and Harang but i would hang onto Harang. he is a workhorse #2 starter. with Cueto-Harang-Volquez heading the rotation i would feel ok with guys like Owings, Maloney & Bailey as the BOR starters.

2. Cordero (assuming he waives his no trade clause) & Weathers.
I would hang onto Rhodes as a veteran prescence. he could actually co close with Massett. he is also cheap for next year.
Rhodes, Massett, Fischer & Herrara are a good start to a 2010 pen. we could pick up a cheap vet to help out. fill out the pen with Burton, Viola, Manuel, Roenicke,etc

3. anyone not signed for 2010 could also go but i wouldn't expect much in return (Hairston, Hernandez, Nix, Gomes, etc)

the 2010 team needs a shortstop. Valaika has been hurt & was struggling at AAA prior to the injury. Cozart is at AA this year and i would expect him at AAA next year with him being pencilled in for a 2011 season in the bigs. Janish seems like a nice utility IF but would likely be overexposed as an everyday SS. we also need either someone to play either LF or 3B depending on where EE plays. guys like Frazier & Alonso might also not arrive until 2011. the trade deadline seems a nice place to start assembling next years team. i suspect Arroyo, Cordero & Weathers have some value.

thoughts?

KoryMac5
06-15-2009, 08:39 PM
With Peavy off the market I feel that Harang's value will most likely never be as high as it will be at the deadline this year. Honestly I have a feeling that he will be moved if the offer is right for Walt and the team. I would imagine the Phillies will be looking at him if they swing and miss on Cliff Lee.

Can't see anyone taking a shot on Arroyo, than again I didn't see anyone taking a shot on Lohse. Maybe a contender who scores a lot of runs could deal with Arroyo's tendencies to give up some runs but also eat innings.

No way Cordero gets dealt that contract kills any shot especially in this economy. Weathers and Rhodes would be attractive commodities to teams that need experienced help in the bullpen.

It will be an interesting couple of months to see what happens. July is always my favorite time of the year.

schroomytunes
06-15-2009, 08:48 PM
Man this is a tough topic as were .500 right now, our division is anybody's for the taking right now and we do have the pitching that other's will be looking for come the July deadline. I'm going to highlight some of the obvious things first:

1)we need hitting--hopefully the return of EE and Votto will be like adding 2 Free Agents to the lineup and offer guys like Bruce, Hernandez, and Phillips some protection.

2)Also getting Maloney some MLB starts wont hurt his trade value if we want to add a bat come the July deadline either, especially if he repeats his first start.

3)If we SELL, who can we move and not hurt our chances in 2010?

a)David Weathers--he's 39 and having a good year, but we have guy's ready in AAA, so why not move him to a contender and get a prospect or two!

b)Nix, Hairston, Gomes, etc-anybody willing to give up a prospect come and get them!!!

c)Francisco Cordero-solid closer, I move only if we get A+ prospects in return, ala Matt LaPorta type deal!!!!

d)Bronson Arroyo-yes he's solid, durable, and would be a welcome addition to any team down the stretch....say Boston!!!! but it would take solid prospects in return for his services!!!

No way do I give these guys away(Cordero/Arroyo) just to unload their salary, I make the big guys pay up!! ie NYY, Bos, LAA, LAD

alloverjr
06-15-2009, 09:17 PM
3)If we SELL, who can we move and not hurt our chances in 2010?

a)David Weathers--he's 39 and having a good year, but we have guy's ready in AAA, so why not move him to a contender and get a prospect or two!

b)Nix, Hairston, Gomes, etc-anybody willing to give up a prospect come and get them!!!

c)Francisco Cordero-solid closer, I move only if we get A+ prospects in return, ala Matt LaPorta type deal!!!!

d)Bronson Arroyo-yes he's solid, durable, and would be a welcome addition to any team down the stretch....say Boston!!!! but it would take solid prospects in return for his services!!!

No way do I give these guys away(Cordero/Arroyo) just to unload their salary, I make the big guys pay up!! ie NYY, Bos, LAA, LAD


a) I don't think we get anything for Weathers. Not that a conteder couldn't use a guy like him, I just don't see a return there. It may be a "thanks" to David to move him to a contender in what are probably his final year(s).

b) No real value there either. Non roster invitees except Hairston. They could have been had by anyone months ago.

C) Here's the guy I really push. Bullpen's been great this year save Lincoln and Burton and Cordero's been a big part of that. However if you can deal him and pick up the extra coin for next year when I think the real window is I can't think of a downside. Getting an A+ return may be a dream but would be icing for me.

D) I think Bronson has more value than some on this board give him credit for. I do think it is necessary to move one of Harang or Bronson and while I'd prefer Harang I wouldn't blink if he was moved for a plus return.

Cueto, Volquez, 1 of Bronson or Aaron, and Bailey could still be a top rotation going into '10. Upgrades via trade (more likely) or free agency for SS and LF are mandatory imo.

Rojo
06-15-2009, 09:38 PM
At this point, Cordero is the only hard currency.

mth123
06-15-2009, 09:57 PM
At this point, Cordero is the only hard currency.

Cordero has a no trade. It probably will take cash to get him to waive it. Extra cash for Cordero means less talent coming back to Cincy IMO. I wait until the off-season with him when his no trade becomes a limited no trade. But in the off-season I try like heck to deal him. Maybe sign a cheaper vet (like say, David Weathers of all people) as insurance while looking to the kids to step up.

_Sir_Charles_
06-15-2009, 10:02 PM
I guess I'm in the minority when I say that I don't deal ANY major league starting pitchers. The arguments I've read tend to read somewhere along the lines of "even if we deal Arroyo or Harang, we still have a decent rotation". The key word being "decent". I don't want "decent". I want EXCELLENT. I want near the top of the league type of rotation. I want an Atlanta Braves type of dominant rotation. This whole window of opportunity crap bothers me too. Why do we have a short window in which to compete? Why is it inevitable that our pitching will go DOWN-hill?

We've built a solid and deep farm system that has surplus' at several positions that are even causing us to juggle players to find them playing time. To me, that begs the question, why aren't we exploring trades of these surplus players? If you want to improve the club for the future, then deal off the extras that don't figure into the future due to better (and more experienced) players blocking them. If the Reds don't have any interest in moving Votto off of firstbase (and it's certainly a possibility that they don't want to despite what Redszoners' want), then why aren't they dangling Alonso? If they don't have any plans of moving Edwin to another position or trading him, then why are they holding onto the plethora of 3B'men in the minors and repositioning them instead of dangling them to fill depth-chart holes in the minors and on the parent club?

Selling off viable & productive parts of the big club aren't what I'm interested in. I'd rather see us sell from surplus to fill holes. And that surplus is in the minors.

mth123
06-15-2009, 10:07 PM
I guess I'm in the minority when I say that I don't deal ANY major league starting pitchers. The arguments I've read tend to read somewhere along the lines of "even if we deal Arroyo or Harang, we still have a decent rotation". The key word being "decent". I don't want "decent". I want EXCELLENT. I want near the top of the league type of rotation. I want an Atlanta Braves type of dominant rotation. This whole window of opportunity crap bothers me too. Why do we have a short window in which to compete? Why is it inevitable that our pitching will go DOWN-hill?

We've built a solid and deep farm system that has surplus' at several positions that are even causing us to juggle players to find them playing time. To me, that begs the question, why aren't we exploring trades of these surplus players? If you want to improve the club for the future, then deal off the extras that don't figure into the future due to better (and more experienced) players blocking them. If the Reds don't have any interest in moving Votto off of firstbase (and it's certainly a possibility that they don't want to despite what Redszoners' want), then why aren't they dangling Alonso? If they don't have any plans of moving Edwin to another position or trading him, then why are they holding onto the plethora of 3B'men in the minors and repositioning them instead of dangling them to fill depth-chart holes in the minors and on the parent club?

Selling off viable & productive parts of the big club aren't what I'm interested in. I'd rather see us sell from surplus to fill holes. And that surplus is in the minors.


I agree, but this is a hypothetical if we sell. I wouldn't deal Harang, Arroyo, Weathers, Cordero or any of those at this point. But if this swoon keeps up for another two weeks, the Reds could sink past the point of hope for 2009 ny the All Star break. Then its time to rethink things.

HokieRed
06-15-2009, 10:12 PM
I agree, but this is a hypothetical if we sell. I wouldn't deal Harang, Arroyo, Weathers, Cordero or any of those at this point. But if this swoon keeps up for another two weeks, the Reds could sink past the point of hope for 2009 ny the All Star break. Then its time to rethink things.

Agree. After we're out of it, I'd consider trading three of the four above--all but Harang. I simply think it is too difficult to get a starter of that quality to come to Cincinnati; I don't see us contending without him in 2010. Unfortunately for Arroyo I think all we get is salary relief, but, of course, that's not nothing and will be important for 2010. But I think it's unrealistic to think other teams will give both prospects and salary relief for Arroyo.

_Sir_Charles_
06-15-2009, 10:15 PM
I agree, but this is a hypothetical if we sell. I wouldn't deal Harang, Arroyo, Weathers, Cordero or any of those at this point. But if this swoon keeps up for another two weeks, the Reds could sink past the point of hope for 2009 ny the All Star break. Then its time to rethink things.

Yeah, I know it's a hypothetical. But even in that scenerio...I don't deal starting pitchers. This staff has the potential to go the route of the Braves back when it was Glavine, Smoltz, Maddux, Avery. I'm sure some will roll their eyes at that thought...but I'm dead serious about it. If Cueto & Volquez are the real deal as we think they are...would there be a better 3rd & 4th starter tandem in the league than Harang & Arroyo? I sure don't see it.

But in regards to who DO I sell off if we are in a sell mode...well, I deal the age. Weathers, Rhodes from the pen (even though they're both doing well). The older OF'ers (I know most of them are fringe players...but if they don't fit into the future...they're expendable). The older IF'ers (Gonzo, Hairston). The older catcher (Hernandez). If you're going to sell...do it towards a youth trend and with a thought of opening up roster space for close to the cusp minor leaguers.

That method may not net us much...but if it opens up the roster space to give the young guys shots and also allows us to move guys up through the minors that deserately need it...then it's worth it.

In a side note...teams that do go into sell mode...seldom do the same to thier minor league system. I think that's a mistake. If you're going to jettison players to save money and to go for youth, then you need to deal off or dump the older players in AAA as well to allow for more freedom of advancement. It's gotten better the past few years, but in the past we've seen far too many career minor leaguers clogging up Louisville for my taste.

schroomytunes
06-15-2009, 11:38 PM
I agree with the Alonzo aspect, if we are not going to move Votto off of 1st base than why not make him part of a mega package to land some offensive talent NOW!! If I'm Walt this is my proposal:

Reds trade-Yonder Alonso as a PTBNL, Josh Roenicke, Chris Dickerson, and Dallas Buck(AA)

YA can't be dealt till August hence the PTBNL tag.

Oakland trades- Matt Holliday and Michael Wuertz(RHRP) But Walt can nix the deal if we can't sign Holliday to long-term deal within 72 hours.

*BaseClogger*
06-16-2009, 12:07 AM
I think I should change my sig:


1. Francisco Cordero has a no-trade clause through 2009, followed by a limited no-trade clause.

2. Matt Holliday is a Scott Boras client. He is not going to sign an extension, and he is not going to sign with a team like the Reds.

Will M
06-16-2009, 12:34 AM
I think I should change my sig:

players waive their NTC all the time. to say 'there is no way we could trade Cordero because he has a NTC' is just plain wrong.

Kc61
06-16-2009, 12:50 AM
I would not trade Cordero. Good closers are hard to find. Set up men often fail as closers.

The Reds could try guys like Massett as closer, but it's a big risk.

I would concentrate on a package including Arroyo, Weathers, perhaps Chris Heisey who is having a big year at AA, and maybe one other prospect.

schroomytunes
06-16-2009, 01:07 AM
What offensive power hitter w/nt want to play half of their games in GABP!!! Imagine the #'s you could put up here if you were a power hitter!!! Now if you said Petco Park I would agree, but not GABP!

*BaseClogger*
06-16-2009, 01:13 AM
What offensive power hitter w/nt want to play half of their games in GABP!!! Imagine the #'s you could put up here if you were a power hitter!!! Now if you said Petco Park I would agree, but not GABP!

Seriously?

Matt Holliday is going to get at least 100 million dollars as a free agent this offseason. The Reds are not going to be anywhere close to that in contract negotiations...

KronoRed
06-16-2009, 01:16 AM
What offensive power hitter w/nt want to play half of their games in GABP!!! Imagine the #'s you could put up here if you were a power hitter!!! Now if you said Petco Park I would agree, but not GABP!

It's not about the numbers it's about the money, Boras will make sure Holliday hits the FA market and gets the most expensive deal possible.

*BaseClogger*
06-16-2009, 01:20 AM
players waive their NTC all the time. to say 'there is no way we could trade Cordero because he has a NTC' is just plain wrong.

All the time? Jake Peavy disagrees.

He has to go to a contender, because those are the only teams interesting in adding 34 year-old relief pitchers with $24M left on their contract.

Cordero is only going to accept a trade to a team that offers him the closer role because lets face it, the 'save' as a stat category is the only reason he makes $12M a year. Most contending teams already have a closer.

And that assumes Cordero is even interested in winning. Based on the fact he chose the Reds, I'm thinking no...

corkedbat
06-16-2009, 01:27 AM
I've said in other threads that I'd consider trading several veterans for kids that improve us now, but more importantly in the near future if possible. Holding on to Arroyo would not be a bad thing, especially if you believe we are contrenders this year (I don't).

The danger of not moving them is that neither will probably have the value on the market that they now have and ou run the risk of ending up with both in the roster in a couple of years in the place of better youngster simply because of moenyowed them. I don't give either away, but If I get offered an attractive young guy or two for either, I make the deal

If somone offers me anything of any future value for Phillips I jump on it before they come to their senses, but then, I've always said that he should've been moved a year ago (if not sooner) just to get him out of the cleanup spot. Even if they were to make a deal for Holiday, Dusty would still bat him sixth and leave Phillipsin thefour hole

I'm not talking about a firesale where you just move salary for what you can get. I want legitimate young talent im return to blend with Votto, Bruce, Cueto, Volquez and the boys down on the farm.

For those that disagree withthis approach, take heart. Despite, my previous stated optomism that Walt will soon be making a mjor deal to stamp his mark on this team, his remarks of the past few days have lead me to believe that he will follow the half-arsed path of Dan0 & Krivs.

He has a salary figure he can live with and the team is with in 10 games of the wildcard, so he can tell the fans they are contenders and in it to win it. He'll avoid moving any of the older, higher-paid guys for youngsters to avoid causing those fans to scream bloody murder. At the same time, he won't deal for a big bat that might actually help them actually make a run, due to salary. Why add another #10M when you can just tell them that this team is a contender and its just a matter of waiting for WillyT returns to form? The most we see will probably be Arroyo for a couple of middling prospects.

Rojo
06-16-2009, 02:24 AM
Agree. After we're out of it

Nice one, Vince Lombardi.:)

redsfandan
06-16-2009, 07:34 AM
As much as I dislike his contract I don't think Cordero won't be moved this season and I doubt he'll be moved in the offseason because of that contract.
Here's a few closers that were signed last offseason with contract details.

Francisco Rodriguez rhp
3 years/$37M (2009-11), plus 2012 option
signed by NY Mets as a free agent 12/9/08
$2M signing bonus
09:$8.5M, 10:$11.5M, 11:$11.5M, 12:$17.5M option ($3.5M buyout)

2012 option becomes guaranteed with:
55 games finished in 2011, and
100 games finished in 2010-11, and
doctors declare Rodriguez healthy after 2011
Rodriguez receives $3.5M termination buyout if 2012 option does not become guaranteed

annual performance bonuses, 2009-11: $0.15M each for 50, 55 GF; $0.2M for 60 GF

2012 performance bonuses:
$0.3M each for 50, 55 GF; $0.4M for 60 GF
limited no-trade clause allowing Rodriguez to block deals to 10 clubs

Kerry Wood rhp
2 years/$20.5M (2009-10), plus 2011 option
signed by Cleveland as a free agent 12/13/08
09:$10M, 10:$10.5M, 11:$11M vesting option
2011 option guaranteed with 55 GF in 2009 or 2010 (becomes a club option if it does not vest)

Brian Fuentes lhp
2 years/$17.5M (2009-10), plus 2011 option
signed by Angels as a free agent 12/31/08
09:$8.5M, 10:$9M, 11:$9M vesting option
2011 option guaranteed with 55 GF in 2010
award bonuses

Trevor Hoffman rhp
1 year/$6M (2009)
signed by Milwaukee as a free agent 1/8/09
up to $1.5M in performance bonuses based on games finished

Compare those contracts to Cordero who is owed $24m over the next two years plus a $1m buyout for 2012. :barf:
Here is who is eligible for free agency after this season (with age in parenthesis):

Mike Gonzalez (32)
Trevor Hoffman (42)
J.J. Putz (33) - $8.6MM club option with a $1MM buyout
Rafael Soriano (30)
Jose Valverde (30)
Billy Wagner (38) - $8MM club option with a $1MM buyout
Ryan Franklin (37) - $2.75MM club option with a $250K buyout
Kevin Gregg (32)

None of those guys is in the same class as Rodriguez. So instead of a team trading for an expensive Cordero they could have one of these guys and quite possibly pay them ALOT less. Face it, we're probably stuck with one really bad contract until at least next summer before another team would consider taking it off our hands.:thumbdown

PuffyPig
06-16-2009, 08:43 AM
I would concentrate on a package including Arroyo, Weathers, perhaps Chris Heisey who is having a big year at AA, and maybe one other prospect.

That's a strange package.

Arroyo and Weathers would have value, presumably, to a contender who was making a serious run at the playoffs.

Heisey would have a value to a rebuilding team, and would only be traded if we were making a serious run at a playoff spot.

Both groups won't be traded.

Roy Tucker
06-16-2009, 09:32 AM
As much as I like the scrappiness of this years' patchwork Reds, I think at very very very best, they are a very marginal playoff team. Primarily because of their starters.

I think Jocketty needs to use all of his GM wisdom and mojo and make a good trade to recycle Harang (who is a very good MLB starter) and Arroyo (a good starter) to a contender at the trading deadline for good young arms. We've seen the boost this team has gotten from live arms like Cueto and Volquez. *That* is what will make a difference in this team into the future. I like to watch balls fly out of the park as much as the next guy, but guys that make pitches that miss bats is where its at.

redsfandan
06-16-2009, 09:53 AM
d)Bronson Arroyo-yes he's solid, durable, and would be a welcome addition to any team down the stretch....say Boston!!!! but it would take solid prospects in return for his services!!!

Boston is the last team that needs a starting pitcher. Smoltz is ready to help and Buchholz is ready in AAA.


Selling off viable & productive parts of the big club aren't what I'm interested in. I'd rather see us sell from surplus to fill holes. And that surplus is in the minors.If we're not a contender in July the teams that are in contention won't want minor league players. They'll want players that can help them NOW. As far as the rotation call me crazy but I really like the idea of Cueto, Volquez, Bailey, Leake, & Owings/Maloney/etc in 2011. That could be a really good rotation to keep together and we'd probably have less $ devoted to the rotation in 2011 than we do now. If we can unload Cordero's last year than we'd have even more $ to spend elsewhere.

...I don't deal starting pitchers. This staff has the potential to go the route of the Braves back when it was Glavine, Smoltz, Maddux, Avery. ...would there be a better 3rd & 4th starter tandem in the league than Harang & Arroyo? I sure don't see it.Again, I'll take Bailey & Leake at the #3 & #4 spots. I can see them matching Harang/Arroyo in production and at a much cheaper price.

...Reds trade-Yonder Alonso as a PTBNL, Josh Roenicke, Chris Dickerson, and Dallas Buck(AA)

...

Oakland trades- Matt Holliday and Michael Wuertz(RHRP) But Walt can nix the deal if we can't sign Holliday to long-term deal within 72 hours.
I'd rather have Alonso, Roenicke, Dickerson, & Buck. I think Holliday is overrated by some. He's a good player but $100m good? I'm skeptical. Playing in Colorado helped him. And as has been mentioned, Holliday WILL be a FA. Besides, we could have Votto, Stubbs, Heisey, etc up for the outfield and our biggest need (for 2010) is a ss. Thanks but no thanks to Holliday.

That's a strange package.

Arroyo and Weathers would have value, presumably, to a contender who was making a serious run at the playoffs.

Heisey would have a value to a rebuilding team, and would only be traded if we were making a serious run at a playoff spot.

Both groups won't be traded.
Why not? Arroyo/Weathers for prospects and Heisey for a prospect that plays a different position. I'm not saying I want Heisey dealt but we have outfield depth in the minors. We could use more depth at ss/c/p.

Fwiw, I'd be open to trades of Weathers, Hernandez, either Arroyo or Harang, Hairston, Gomes, & Gonzalez. (Nix intrigues me)
Weathers would only be on the books for a few months for any team that acquires him with a small buyout of 2010($0.4M buyout). Deal him to a contender so he can have a chance to retire on a team in the playoffs.

Rhodes is only owed $2m for next season. For that price I'd probably keep him unless a team made an offer I couldn't refuse.

Hernandez has to be available for the right price. Cueto wouldn't like it but the Mets might like that upgrade for the playoff chase. No harm in seeing what he'd bring.

Arroyo or Harang (I wouldn't deal both this year) would also interest the Mets who need pitching badly (among others) and would benefit from their pitcher friendly home park. I've thought for awhile that either pitcher would be dealt before their contracts run out after 2010 and forget about the 2011 options being picked up. We'll need that money for Volquez, Votto, Bruce, Cueto. The open spot in 2010 goes to Bailey, the 2011 open spot to Leake. They won't bring a LaPorta but they should be able to net something.

flyer85
06-16-2009, 10:09 AM
Harang/Arroyo

Jpup
06-16-2009, 10:24 AM
Arroyo, Phillips, Gonzalez, Tavares, Hernandez, Rhodes, Weathers, Hairston, & Gomes would all be available if someone was interested. Sad to say, but I think Rhodes would be the easiest to trade and your not going to get much for any of the others. I would trade Volquez or Alonso in the right deal.

Kc61
06-16-2009, 11:04 AM
That's a strange package.

Arroyo and Weathers would have value, presumably, to a contender who was making a serious run at the playoffs.

Heisey would have a value to a rebuilding team, and would only be traded if we were making a serious run at a playoff spot.

Both groups won't be traded.

Not trading groups, trading players.

If the Reds want a highly rated prospect or two, the other team might want a sweetener beyond Arroyo and Weathers. They might want a prospect in the deal as well.

Heisey is having a great year. His value is very high now. He plays the same position as Stubbs. He's a perfect guy to trade if the return is high.

So, hypothetically, let's say the Reds target a top shortstop prospect who is major league ready along with a solid pitching prospect. The other team wants more than Arroyo and Weathers. You can put Heisey in that deal.

flyer85
06-16-2009, 11:11 AM
He plays the same position as Stubbs. He's a perfect guy to trade if the return is high.
the guy to trade is the player who has value but is less likely to succeed at the ML level. That may be Heisey but looking at the numbers there is a lot more to like about Heisey than there is Stubbs. These kind of decisions are the ones that Braves have always been so good at. They have done a tremendous job of evaluating their own prospects and knowing which ones should be dealt. The Reds for the longest time have not had enough prospects to have to make these kind of decisions.

With Frazier moving to LF and Bruce in RF making the correct choice about CF is imperative.

Kc61
06-16-2009, 11:14 AM
the guy to trade is the player who has value but is less likely to succeed at the ML level. That may be Heisey but looking at the numbers there is a lot more to like about Heisey than there is Stubbs. These kind of decisions are the ones that Braves have always been so good at. They have done a tremendous job of evaluating their own prospects and knowing which ones should be dealt. The Reds for the longest time have not had enough prospects to have to make these kind of decisions.

With Frazier moving to LF and Bruce in RF making the correct choice about CF is imperative.

I didn't mean to turn this into Heisey versus Stubbs. If the Reds don't like Stubbs as much, then he is the one to trade. Personally, I'd move Heisey but I'd trust the Reds' scouts to make that decision.

Point is that one of the two young centerfielders is good trade bait and, since they both are having excellent years, it is a good time to make the move. For the same reason, there are several Reds prospects I would not move right now -- their season numbers don't reflect their potential value.

flyer85
06-16-2009, 11:17 AM
but I'd trust the Reds' scouts to make that decision.
not sure that I do.

I do agree that now is the time to do something. The time not to do something is after is bringing a player to the majors and their shortcomings made obvious for all to see(which is what I expect from the Reds).

Kc61
06-16-2009, 11:30 AM
not sure that I do.

I do agree that now is the time to do something. The time not to do something is after is bringing a player to the majors and their shortcomings made obvious for all to see(which is what I expect from the Reds).

I'm not as skeptical about the Reds' front office, but something has to give here. The Reds' AA and AAA teams have a lot of talent. A number of these guys will soon be major league ready. Some will soon need to be protected on the 40-man roster.

The Reds either must make room for these kids or they must trade them -- and trade them when their value is high. Keeping them too long at the minor league level is a value killer, as is exposing them to the majors when they can't handle it.

In terms of managing these players, I do not like the fact that Roenicke is still at AAA, it's time for him to be advanced or traded. Bailey must be a Red by next year or traded, he is out of options, so a decision is necessary. A decision is necessary as to the Stubbs/Heisey debate.

All this requires careful management of the major league and minor league assets. Know when to hold them, know when to trade them.

PuffyPig
06-16-2009, 01:05 PM
Why not? Arroyo/Weathers for prospects and Heisey for a prospect that plays a different position. I'm not saying I want Heisey dealt but we have outfield depth in the minors. We could use more depth at ss/c/p.



The suggestion was that they would go in the same package.

Johnny Footstool
06-16-2009, 03:49 PM
Arroyo/Weathers wouldn't bring much in terms of prospects; you'd get longshots and journeymen. If you want to really make an impact, Harang is the one you'd have to give up.

Kc61
06-16-2009, 04:05 PM
Arroyo/Weathers wouldn't bring much in terms of prospects; you'd get longshots and journeymen. If you want to really make an impact, Harang is the one you'd have to give up.

Arroyo/Weathers/Heisey/Maloney.

Can't get back one very good shortstop prospect and a solid lower level pitching prospect? I think you probably can if the right pieces are available from a contender. Maybe.

edabbs44
06-16-2009, 04:22 PM
Depending on the haul, I could see Harang, Arroyo and/or Cordero all heading out if given the chance.

I like Harang, but he might be the #1 candidate to go as he might command the most in return. He will also be 32 next season while making a good chunk of change based upon his 2006-07 numbers, where his 2008-09 numbers are trending in the wrong direction.

flyer85
06-16-2009, 04:44 PM
I like Harang, but he might be the #1 candidate to go as he might command the most in return. He will also be 32 next season while making a good chunk of change based upon his 2006-07 numbers, where his 2008-09 numbers are trending in the wrong direction.He is the player who could likely bring the best return, if you are going to sell high now is the time. Having said that I would e shocked if they traded him. I expect very little to happen over the next 2 months.

wheels
06-16-2009, 08:01 PM
Does Walt really have a track record when it comes to sell-offs?

I really don't know. He's usually the guy across the table from teams like the Reds.

redsfandan
06-17-2009, 08:30 AM
The suggestion was that they would go in the same package.
I got that. Not unrealistic at all Imo.

Raisor
06-17-2009, 08:55 AM
If the Reds trade AH and/or BA then the ETA of the playoffs gets put back another 3-4 years.

If they trade them, they should trade BP too, he gets really expensive very soon.

There's three choices here:

1. Complete rebuild.
2. Add major league talent, go for it.
3. Keep adding marginal talent on the hope that they can break .500.

I vote for 1 or 2. 3rd option is always what the Reds try to do.

redsfandan
06-17-2009, 09:09 AM
If the Reds trade AH and/or BA then the ETA of the playoffs gets put back another 3-4 years. ...
I don't buy that. If we trade BOTH of them then yeah. But if we deal ONE of them I think playoffs could still be possible in 2010-2011. Just depends on what else they do.

edabbs44
06-17-2009, 09:36 AM
If the Reds trade AH and/or BA then the ETA of the playoffs gets put back another 3-4 years.

If they trade them, they should trade BP too, he gets really expensive very soon.

There's three choices here:

1. Complete rebuild.
2. Add major league talent, go for it.
3. Keep adding marginal talent on the hope that they can break .500.

I vote for 1 or 2. 3rd option is always what the Reds try to do.

I'm thinking we are at 1.5. The time for #1 was 2-3 years ago and that opportunity was missed.

But trading Harang and/or Arroyo would not set this franchise back all that much, especially if they get contributors in exchange. To be honest, do you expect Harang and Arroyo to be a major piece of this franchise in 3-4 years? Moreso, do you expect them to even be here at that time? While trading them now would hurt this year and probably next year (depending on the return), it would help extend the window into that 3-4 year time frame.

MikeS21
06-17-2009, 10:41 AM
This is really where the weaknesses of this organization get exploited. Someone earlier mentioned the Braves organization and how they make good choices on who to keep and who to trade (see Bell, Rob). I believe the last time the Reds made a wise choice like this was when they decided to keep Barry Larkin over Kurt Stillwell. But I digress ...

The name of the game for the Reds ought to be to flip as many parts they can for decent prospects. Timing is EVERYTHING.

Flip Harang now and you ought to get TWO very good prospects (a bat and and arm). If you wait until you see if you may or may not contend, you will lower the return you get.

Right now, the Reds are still on the bubble. It would take a whole lot of luck and a few players having career years, but yeah, they might just pull it out and win everything. But let's be honest. This team is interesting, but its not there yet. The season is not dead yet, but the vultures are gathering. The problem is that if the Reds wait until the season is dead (probably by the All-Star break), then everyone knows the Reds are in a selling mode. The offers will be much less.

Harang, Arroyo, Cordero - these guys highest value is right now (it was higher a couple weeks ago when the Reds were flirting with first place). Once the Reds are perceived as "out of it," the trade value of the whole roster will plummet.

flyer85
06-17-2009, 10:45 AM
I believe the last time the Reds made a wise choice like this was when they decided to keep Barry Larkin over Kurt Stillwell. When I was thinking about the issue that was last good example I could think of. Stillwell/Larkin put up similar numbers in 87 and Stillwell was a year younger but obviously the right choice was made. IIRC, Danny Jackson was a part of the Stillwell to KC deal.

OnBaseMachine
06-17-2009, 10:53 AM
The only way I trade Harang is if a team knocks me over with a deal I can't refuse. For example, it would take something like Dominic Brown/Michael Taylor, Kyle Drabek, and Lou Marson from the Phillies. My preference is to hold on to Harang because I think this team is very close to being a playoff team and Harang is a big part of that.

edabbs44
06-17-2009, 11:17 AM
The only way I trade Harang is if a team knocks me over with a deal I can't refuse. For example, it would take something like Dominic Brown/Michael Taylor, Kyle Drabek, and Lou Marson from the Phillies. My preference is to hold on to Harang because I think this team is very close to being a playoff team and Harang is a big part of that.

That's never going to happen.

Do you think that Harang might be a little overvalued on this board? I love the guy but he will be 32 next season and has never had an ERA under 3.73. Everyone expected him to jump into that upper echelon based upon his peripherals, but he has never made it there. He is a solid starter and would be a contributor to any team but is currently not a franchise pitcher that will carry this team for the next few years.

If he was able to demand some young talent and payroll relief that is utilized properly, I think that the thought should at least be entertained.

kaldaniels
06-17-2009, 11:35 AM
That's never going to happen.

Do you think that Harang might be a little overvalued on this board? I love the guy but he will be 32 next season and has never had an ERA under 3.73. Everyone expected him to jump into that upper echelon based upon his peripherals, but he has never made it there. He is a solid starter and would be a contributor to any team but is currently not a franchise pitcher that will carry this team for the next few years.

If he was able to demand some young talent and payroll relief that is utilized properly, I think that the thought should at least be entertained.

Or you can look at at this way...

Harang had 3 straight seasons with an ERA under 3.83, with an injury plagued season last year...and is heading on to his best ERA yet this year. Sure that is the sunny-side view of things, but believe me, Harang has value. Would I absolutely hate to lose him...yes. But if a desperate GM comes calling offering the moon, then I listen. Over the past 4-5 years he has one of the better track records in the bigs...sure he isn't your #1 dominating starter...but he has value.

REDREAD
06-17-2009, 11:45 AM
Cordero has a no trade. It probably will take cash to get him to waive it. Extra cash for Cordero means less talent coming back to Cincy IMO. I wait until the off-season with him when his no trade becomes a limited no trade. But in the off-season I try like heck to deal him. Maybe sign a cheaper vet (like say, David Weathers of all people) as insurance while looking to the kids to step up.

I agree with your assessment that few teams are going to want to absorb Cordero. He's going to want cash to deal with the no trade clause too.

The question becomes this.. Should the Reds give away Cordero for payflex next year, if that was theoretically possible (much like Gabe White and Heredia in 2003, a straight give away)?

I'm a bit torn on this. Cordero is somewhat overpaid, but not extremely overpaid. His presence really stablilizes the pen. Of course, there's always the hope that the money spent on Cordero could be better allocated on other FAs.. However, I think the reality is that Cincinnati is one of the least attractive places for FAs. We are always going to have to overpay to get a FA to come here. Cordero is a case in point on that.

I'd lean towards just keeping Cordero, unless we truly get something of value for him.

REDREAD
06-17-2009, 12:29 PM
But in regards to who DO I sell off if we are in a sell mode...well, I deal the age. Weathers, Rhodes from the pen (even though they're both doing well). The older OF'ers (I know most of them are fringe players...but if they don't fit into the future...they're expendable). The older IF'ers (Gonzo, Hairston). The older catcher (Hernandez). If you're going to sell...do it towards a youth trend and with a thought of opening up roster space for close to the cusp minor leaguers.

That method may not net us much...but if it opens up the roster space to give the young guys shots and also allows us to move guys up through the minors that deserately need it...then it's worth it.


After all the recent callups, is there any minor leaguer that desperately needs promoted? Malony has made a case for getting a few more starts. I think we can accomodate him without trades. Burton can be demoted or Lincoln released if Walt feels that there's a relief pitcher in AAA that can upgrade us.

I know people like to be optimistic about the minors, but I'm more interested in trying to make it through the season with a 500 record. I just don't see Stubbs, etc breaking down the door to come here. I really don't want to see the Riverbats lineup in Cincinnati. I've already sat through too many years of that. If the Reds have a young guy like Fisher that legitimately deserves a promotion, I trust Walt to make the correct call when the time is right. I don't see a need to rush people up here.

My opinion would be different if someone actually offered something of value for Nix, Harrison, Weathers, etc, but let's be realistic.. not likely to happen. I don't see the need to collect marginal prospects that have the upside of being a bad bench player. I'd rather keep the vets.

edabbs44
06-17-2009, 12:51 PM
Or you can look at at this way...

Harang had 3 straight seasons with an ERA under 3.83, with an injury plagued season last year...and is heading on to his best ERA yet this year. Sure that is the sunny-side view of things, but believe me, Harang has value. Would I absolutely hate to lose him...yes. But if a desperate GM comes calling offering the moon, then I listen. Over the past 4-5 years he has one of the better track records in the bigs...sure he isn't your #1 dominating starter...but he has value.

I agree that he has value. But will he provide more value to this team as a pitcher over the next 1.5-2.5 seasons under the terms of his contract or would he provide more value in terms of the trade return and payroll relief?

That is the question at hand.

Rojo
06-17-2009, 02:19 PM
Everyone expected him to jump into that upper echelon based upon his peripherals, but he has never made it there.

Pitching in a banjo-box with a crummy defense behind you will do that.

edabbs44
06-17-2009, 03:14 PM
Pitching in a banjo-box with a crummy defense behind you will do that.

Yet he has only led the team in ERA in one of the past 3 years and is far behind the leader this year.

Again, he is a solid pitcher and one that any manager would be thrilled to trot out there every 5th day. But I think his reputation is making him seem more valuable than he really is.

Rojo
06-17-2009, 05:24 PM
Yet he has only led the team in ERA in one of the past 3 years and is far behind the leader this year.

Last year he was hurt. In 2006 he was half a run behind Arroyo's career year.

Harang has been better than his ERA, which is still pretty good.

I(heart)Freel
06-17-2009, 06:07 PM
lets say the Reds decide to be sellers come July. i would like them to move the following players:

1. Arroyo. some people might argue we should move both Arroyo and Harang but i would hang onto Harang. he is a workhorse #2 starter. with Cueto-Harang-Volquez heading the rotation i would feel ok with guys like Owings, Maloney & Bailey as the BOR starters.

2. Cordero (assuming he waives his no trade clause) & Weathers.
I would hang onto Rhodes as a veteran prescence. he could actually co close with Massett. he is also cheap for next year.
Rhodes, Massett, Fischer & Herrara are a good start to a 2010 pen. we could pick up a cheap vet to help out. fill out the pen with Burton, Viola, Manuel, Roenicke,etc

3. anyone not signed for 2010 could also go but i wouldn't expect much in return (Hairston, Hernandez, Nix, Gomes, etc)

the 2010 team needs a shortstop. Valaika has been hurt & was struggling at AAA prior to the injury. Cozart is at AA this year and i would expect him at AAA next year with him being pencilled in for a 2011 season in the bigs. Janish seems like a nice utility IF but would likely be overexposed as an everyday SS. we also need either someone to play either LF or 3B depending on where EE plays. guys like Frazier & Alonso might also not arrive until 2011. the trade deadline seems a nice place to start assembling next years team. i suspect Arroyo, Cordero & Weathers have some value.

thoughts?


I go back to this original thread-starter to say I agree with our primary need: a young, quality glove+bat shortstop. And that a trade might be the best way to address it.

I defer to those who follow these things more closely than I... but which team has a ML-ready SS prospect who is potentially blocked by an incumbent with a multi year deal? That's who you target. And having zeroed in that... then you ask, what do they need right now?

If you have something they value, then talk.

It's the whole Salty-Altanta situation. Everyone knew they were going to trade him. Was just a matter of to whom and for what. So what's the SS equivalent to that this year? Anyone know?

Rojo
06-17-2009, 06:52 PM
I defer to those who follow these things more closely than I... but which team has a ML-ready SS prospect who is potentially blocked by an incumbent with a multi year deal? That's who you target. And having zeroed in that... then you ask, what do they need right now?


That's where it gets tough. Emmanuel Burriss was just sent down by SF, who have Renteria in a multi. Burriss can fly, walk and play defense but has zero power.

Benihana
06-17-2009, 07:44 PM
I go back to this original thread-starter to say I agree with our primary need: a young, quality glove+bat shortstop. And that a trade might be the best way to address it.

I defer to those who follow these things more closely than I... but which team has a ML-ready SS prospect who is potentially blocked by an incumbent with a multi year deal? That's who you target. And having zeroed in that... then you ask, what do they need right now?

If you have something they value, then talk.

It's the whole Salty-Altanta situation. Everyone knew they were going to trade him. Was just a matter of to whom and for what. So what's the SS equivalent to that this year? Anyone know?

Jason Donald, the 24-year old slick fielding SS who has OPSed over 850 at every level since the year he was drafted. He's also on the shelf for the next month with a knee injury. He's blocked by a couple guys named Rollins and Utley, and according to this (http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/philadelphia_phillies/index.html)the Phils are ready to move him (and others) for a veteran SP, are more than happy to take on payroll, and are souring on Bedard. They've also been linked to Arroyo in the past. Sounds to me like a match made in heaven:

Reds trade: Arroyo
Phils trade: 2 PTBNL (Reds choose 2 of Jason Donald, Lou Marson, and Michael Taylor. You could tie it to Arroyo's performance and/or the health of Donald and Marson, who are both currently on the DL.)

This would free up a spot in the rotation for Homer Bailey, who has nothing left to prove in AAA. It would also give the Reds some payflex to either lock up some younger guys or go after a big bat (like say, Alex Rios.)

Finally, it would give the Reds some flexibility in pursuing a young SS, a young C, and/or a young, almost ready LF who is tearing up AA. (The first two are ML-ready as soon as they return from their injuries.) Those just happen to be the Reds biggest needs, and depending on how guys like Valaika, Cozart, Nix, Gomes, etc. perform going forward , will allow the Reds to make the best acquisitions both for the present and the future. Meanwhile the Phils get their battle-tested vet pitcher with postseason experience.

A win-win all around.

KoryMac5
06-18-2009, 12:19 AM
I can't see the Phillies giving that much up for Arroyo, maybe you might get Donald and a fringe prospect in return. The Phillies would be a great trade partner though and if Lidge doesn't get right they may come calling for bullpen help.

The Brewers have a logjam at short, how about JJ Hardy? I doubt they would deal inside the division but he may be a guy people target.

Benihana
06-18-2009, 12:40 AM
I can't see the Phillies giving that much up for Arroyo, maybe you might get Donald and a fringe prospect in return. The Phillies would be a great trade partner though and if Lidge doesn't get right they may come calling for bullpen help.


It's a sellers market. Bronson Arroyo and Jarrod Washburn are the two best arms on the market, and Philly is dying for pitching help- Charlie Manuel specifies he wants a workhorse and a bullpen arm.

Maybe you could even score all three if you throw in a David Weathers?

RedlegJake
06-18-2009, 12:45 AM
I can't see the Phillies giving that much up for Arroyo, maybe you might get Donald and a fringe prospect in return. The Phillies would be a great trade partner though and if Lidge doesn't get right they may come calling for bullpen help.

The Brewers have a logjam at short, how about JJ Hardy? I doubt they would deal inside the division but he may be a guy people target.

I think the Phillies would trade Donald and Taylor for Arroyo and a pitching prospect on the level of Ramon Ramirez and a bat like Francisco. Phils get a solid SP, and guy who can spot start or relieve long and they get a power bat to replace Taylor, just farther away. The Reds can afford to lose Arroyo with Maloney basically taking his spot, still have Bailey as a 6th guy, they get a SS who can hit and a LFer with power, stay young and gain payroll room.

kaldaniels
06-18-2009, 12:51 AM
I think the Phillies would trade Donald and Taylor for Arroyo and a pitching prospect on the level of Ramon Ramirez and a bat like Francisco. Phils get a solid SP, and guy who can spot start or relieve long and they get a power bat to replace Taylor, just farther away. The Reds can afford to lose Arroyo with Maloney basically taking his spot, still have Bailey as a 6th guy, they get a SS who can hit and a LFer with power, stay young and gain payroll room.

Arroyo, while not flashy...is the epitomy of consistency. I don't think for a second you can plug in Maloney and equal the results of Arroyo. If the deal goes down, I would hope Maloney would be alright...but I would have doubts. Any deal regarding Harang/Arroyo is a roll of the dice concerning the rotation...a big roll at that. That said, I'd weigh out any decent offer that comes along.

VR
06-18-2009, 01:10 AM
Wily Taveras. Should bring a bounty.

WebScorpion
06-18-2009, 02:45 AM
We BUY! :thumbup:

edabbs44
06-18-2009, 09:25 AM
Arroyo, while not flashy...is the epitomy of consistency. I don't think for a second you can plug in Maloney and equal the results of Arroyo. If the deal goes down, I would hope Maloney would be alright...but I would have doubts. Any deal regarding Harang/Arroyo is a roll of the dice concerning the rotation...a big roll at that. That said, I'd weigh out any decent offer that comes along.

Arroyo, in 13 games this season, has had 5 games where he let up 1 or less ERs and 6 games where he let up 5 or more ERs.

He has been anything but consistent this season.

kaldaniels
06-18-2009, 09:27 AM
Arroyo, in 13 games this season, has had 5 games where he let up 1 or less ERs and 6 games where he let up 5 or more ERs.

He has been anything but consistent this season.

Over the past 3.5 seasons...you pretty much know what you are going to get with the guy. I'm talking macro-consistency...not micro.

edabbs44
06-18-2009, 09:31 AM
Over the past 3.5 seasons...you pretty much know what you are going to get with the guy. I'm talking macro-consistency...not micro.

Still, he has produced ERAs of 3.29, 4.23 and 4.77 the last 3 seasons and is currently at 5.36.

What's consistent about that, except the consistent decline in performance?

REDREAD
06-18-2009, 10:24 AM
I think the Phillies would trade Donald and Taylor for Arroyo and a pitching prospect on the level of Ramon Ramirez and a bat like Francisco. Phils get a solid SP, and guy who can spot start or relieve long and they get a power bat to replace Taylor, just farther away. The Reds can afford to lose Arroyo with Maloney basically taking his spot, still have Bailey as a 6th guy, they get a SS who can hit and a LFer with power, stay young and gain payroll room.


I like the general idea, but I can't see any contending team considering Ramon Ramirez as valuable.

If Taylor and Donald are both good ML ready prospects (I am taking the word of people on this thread), then we probably have to give someone more ready/valuable thatn Remirez. If we truly have confidence in the AAA bullpen arms, do we offer Masset or Rhodes to the deal?

Roy Tucker
06-18-2009, 11:57 AM
Starting pitching market may be thin. Could be good if the Reds want to sell Harang/Arroyo...

http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2009/writers/jon_heyman/06/17/pitchers.market/index.html



Jon Heyman > DAILY SCOOP

Market for starting pitchers could be shockingly thin; more notes Story Highlights



A potentially great pitching market is threatening to become almost nonexistent.

Roy Halladay has been declared untouchable, Jake Peavy has a serious ankle injury that could keep him out past the July 31 trade deadline, Chris Young could be headed to the disabled list with shoulder inflammation and Erik Bedard was scratched from his last start with a stiff shoulder.

This whole market could turn up stiff.

If Bedard's shoulder doesn't loosen up, it's possible the best starting pitchers on the market could be Seattle's Jarrod Washburn and Boston's Brad Penny. Doesn't exactly get the juices flowing, does it?

Washburn (3-5, 3.30 ERA) has pitched well this season, but is far from a star and carries a hefty $9 million salary. Penny (5-2, 5.32) hit 95 mph on the radar gun in a recent start against the Yankees, but scouts say he has been less than stellar this year and has a reputation as a somewhat-difficult clubhouse presence.

The Red Sox have received offers for Penny, but none to their liking. The Phillies, Cardinals and Mets are believed to have checked in, but Penny's value spears less than spectacular.

Future Hall of Famer John Smoltz is going to make his Red Sox debut on Thursday, and manager Terry Francona hinted Tuesday that they might go with a six-man rotation, at least temporarily. They could also put Daisuke Matsuzaka (1-4, 7.55), whose shape is in question, back on the disabled list.

Noting GM Theo Epstein's rare mistake to trade away Bronson Arroyo (for Wily Mo Pena) when he thought he had an extra starter, one competing GM said he believes Epstein now understands it's better to have extra pitching than to give away Penny. That's definitely true in a market in which Penny is looking shinier by the day.

The Phillies, Dodgers and White Sox are searching for a starting pitcher, and the Twins, Rangers, Tigers and Mets may pursue one, as well. So the demand should easily exceed the supply.

Right now, the supply is exceedingly sparse. Halladay never was never likely to go anywhere -- though some GMs understandably dreamed of a repeat of last year's CC Sabathia acquisition by the Brewers. Meanwhile, the Padres are almost surely stuck with Peavy, a natural battler who tried pitching through a serious right ankle injury. He's now said to be out 1-3 months with a torn tendon, which even in the best case would push a return close to the July 31 deadline. Longtime agent Barry Axelrod said the great hope is that the cast and conservative treatment will heal Peavy, though surgery hasn't been ruled out. On the off chance he does need surgery, Peavy would miss the rest of the season

The Mariners are still on the fringes of the race to make the playoffs, but assuming they become a seller, they could actually control about half the supply of viable starters. Bedard threw on the side Tuesday after skipping last Saturday's start. He's penciled in to pitch either Friday or Saturday versus Arizona.

But while Bedard's talented, the shoulder question and personality issues could limit his value. Phillies GM Ruben Amaro said he's looking for a front-of-the-rotation starter, but someone familiar with the Phillies' thinking said they are somewhat leery of Bedard, who behaved anti-socially when he got to Seattle last year. Bedard's doing OK in that regard this year, but one former boss said, "He's fine if he's in the background, but he's not good when he's the one in the limelight.''

The Indians are still awaiting the return of Grady Sizemore and Jake Westbrook before deciding what to do with Cliff Lee (4-6, 2.88), who has pitched extremely well lately and whose value is enhanced by the $8 million club option for 2010. For now, Cleveland seems reluctant to trade Lee, further diminishing the market. If Lee does become available, he'd go straight to the top of the class.

*BaseClogger*
06-18-2009, 05:18 PM
Still, he has produced ERAs of 3.29, 4.23 and 4.77 the last 3 seasons and is currently at 5.36.

What's consistent about that, except the consistent decline in performance?


xFIP
2006 - 4.40, 7.2 K/G, 2.5 BB/G, 1.21 HR/G
2007 - 4.76, 6.6 K/G, 2.7 BB/G, 1.18 HR/G
2008 - 4.34, 7.3 K/G, 3.0 BB/G, 1.29 HR/G
2009 - 5.11, 4.5 K/G, 3.1 BB/G, 1.53 HR/G

Seems pretty consistent to me (ignoring the small 2009 sample)...

edabbs44
06-18-2009, 05:27 PM
xFIP
2006 - 4.40, 7.2 K/G, 2.5 BB/G, 1.21 HR/G
2007 - 4.76, 6.6 K/G, 2.7 BB/G, 1.18 HR/G
2008 - 4.34, 7.3 K/G, 3.0 BB/G, 1.29 HR/G
2009 - 5.11, 4.5 K/G, 3.1 BB/G, 1.53 HR/G

Seems pretty consistent to me (ignoring the small 2009 sample)...

I guess we can find any stat to back us up, as long as we look hard enough. Now my turn:

ERA+

2006: 142
2007: 110
2008: 95
2009: 84

Eric_the_Red
06-18-2009, 05:39 PM
I guess we can find any stat to back us up, as long as we look hard enough. Now my turn:

ERA+

2006: 142
2007: 110
2008: 95
2009: 84

That's a consistent decline though. ;)

*BaseClogger*
06-18-2009, 06:16 PM
I guess we can find any stat to back us up, as long as we look hard enough. Now my turn:

ERA+

2006: 142
2007: 110
2008: 95
2009: 84

No, the problem is you are looking at the wrong stats. We could parse through all kinds of numbers if we wanted to, but ERA is known to fluctuate wildly. Peripherals are much more indicative of skill, which I assume is what we are discussing...

edabbs44
06-18-2009, 06:54 PM
No, the problem is you are looking at the wrong stats. We could parse through all kinds of numbers if we wanted to, but ERA is known to fluctuate wildly. Peripherals are much more indicative of skill, which I assume is what we are discussing...

I was talking about his performance on the field, which is deteriorating year after year.

Benihana
06-18-2009, 06:59 PM
I like the general idea, but I can't see any contending team considering Ramon Ramirez as valuable.

If Taylor and Donald are both good ML ready prospects (I am taking the word of people on this thread), then we probably have to give someone more ready/valuable thatn Remirez. If we truly have confidence in the AAA bullpen arms, do we offer Masset or Rhodes to the deal?

Read the article in the post below yours. Arroyo will have serious value in this market. That said, if you need a bullpen arm to add to the deal, look no further than one David "Stormy" Weathers.

I doubt you need to add to the deal, however. I'd play the Phillies and Rangers off of each other. From Texas, I want Andrus and one of their catchers. From Philly, I want 2 out of the 3 aforementioned. First to bite wins. The loser gets Jarrod Washburn (who has similar numbers over the last three years in a much bigger ballpark.)

Will M
06-18-2009, 07:27 PM
just a thought: trade Arroyo to fill a need (ie SS) and plug in Homer and his new splitter in Arroyo's spot in the rotation.

edabbs44
06-18-2009, 07:40 PM
just a thought: trade Arroyo to fill a need (ie SS) and plug in Homer and his new splitter in Arroyo's spot in the rotation.

Risky with Homer, but that is one way to build a winner.

Patrick Bateman
06-18-2009, 08:09 PM
I was talking about his performance on the field, which is deteriorating year after year.

Which would be missing the point of BC's post. I could see you being skeptic of putting all your marbles into xFIP and the like, but ERA certainly isn't a great place to start a rebuttal IMO.

edabbs44
06-18-2009, 10:45 PM
Which would be missing the point of BC's post. I could see you being skeptic of putting all your marbles into xFIP and the like, but ERA certainly isn't a great place to start a rebuttal IMO.

I am skeptical of the stat. Harang doesn't seem to have an issue with the stat. If all the pitchers on the team had a similar variance then I might be a little more of a fan. I think we're all still waiting for Belisle's ERA to come back down to what his xFIP said.

*BaseClogger*
06-19-2009, 01:37 AM
I am skeptical of the stat. Harang doesn't seem to have an issue with the stat. If all the pitchers on the team had a similar variance then I might be a little more of a fan. I think we're all still waiting for Belisle's ERA to come back down to what his xFIP said.

Which is why I also included K/G, BB/G, and HR/G. Do you have a problem with those too?

I could have used FIP, DIPS, or just about any stat that uses the above peripherals. The idea is to locate what the pitcher controls and isolate them from the rest of the team. Based on that analysis, I believe Arroyo was approximately the same pitcher from 2006-2008...

WVRedsFan
06-19-2009, 02:30 AM
lets say the Reds decide to be sellers come July. i would like them to move the following players:

1. Arroyo. some people might argue we should move both Arroyo and Harang but i would hang onto Harang. he is a workhorse #2 starter. with Cueto-Harang-Volquez heading the rotation i would feel ok with guys like Owings, Maloney & Bailey as the BOR starters.
I totally agree. Although Arroyo is another workhorse, he's so inconsistent that I could live with moving him for a bat. Unfortunately, I'm not so confident with Maloney and I'm definitely down on Bailey. I do not expect anything from Homer. Owings is also iffy and then your pitching goes from lights out to kind of fuzzy.


2. Cordero (assuming he waives his no trade clause) & Weathers.
I would hang onto Rhodes as a veteran prescence. he could actually co close with Massett. he is also cheap for next year.
Rhodes, Massett, Fischer & Herrara are a good start to a 2010 pen. we could pick up a cheap vet to help out. fill out the pen with Burton, Viola, Manuel, Roenicke,etc
The chances of Cordero waiving that clause are slim and none. Weathers is cheap and somewhat dependable, but his age concerns me. These older guys (with the exception of Rhodes) go quickly. I'd move him.


3. anyone not signed for 2010 could also go but i wouldn't expect much in return (Hairston, Hernandez, Nix, Gomes, etc)
Hairston needs to be shipped out for most anything, but Hernandez is a good catcher and though expensive is an asset. I do not expect him to stay, however. I like Nix and Gomes as backup outfielders. I've been impressed with Nix.


the 2010 team needs a shortstop. Valaika has been hurt & was struggling at AAA prior to the injury. Cozart is at AA this year and i would expect him at AAA next year with him being pencilled in for a 2011 season in the bigs. Janish seems like a nice utility IF but would likely be overexposed as an everyday SS. we also need either someone to play either LF or 3B depending on where EE plays. guys like Frazier & Alonso might also not arrive until 2011. the trade deadline seems a nice place to start assembling next years team. i suspect Arroyo, Cordero & Weathers have some value.

thoughts?

My thoughts exactly. Free agency could solve the SS problem if it can be afforded and there is anyone available. At this point, I'd rather have Janish playing at short over Gonzalez in the short term. Move Gonzo for whatever you can get and look for that FA SS.

Jpup
06-19-2009, 10:39 AM
Arroyo is in no way the pitcher he was 3 years ago. Absolutely no way. I love stats and all that, but if you watch the games, he just doesn't have the stuff he did his first year as a Red. That is likely due to the league catching up to him. He still a fair pitcher, but not as good as he once was.

Patrick Bateman
06-19-2009, 11:47 AM
I am skeptical of the stat. Harang doesn't seem to have an issue with the stat. If all the pitchers on the team had a similar variance then I might be a little more of a fan. I think we're all still waiting for Belisle's ERA to come back down to what his xFIP said.

Okay, there's exceptions, which is why I think you have to look at a number of different stats.

But it tstill boils down to what you are trying to do, which I believe is trying to find the true talent of the pitcher. We know that ERA cannot do that as there are just waaay too many factors included that are in included to reasonably evaluate a pitcher, and on that end, you could find so many poor valuations of pitchers using ERA it's not even funny.

Hence why I said "xFIP and the like". These types of stats do try to evaluate a pitcher for his true skills. And that's where I think this conversation should really be starting.

Benihana
06-19-2009, 11:54 AM
I would be shocked if Alonso and Frazier don't arrive until 2011.

redsfandan
06-19-2009, 11:59 AM
Heck, I wouldn't be surprised if one, or both, of them was up in Sept.

*BaseClogger*
06-19-2009, 04:18 PM
Arroyo is in no way the pitcher he was 3 years ago. Absolutely no way. I love stats and all that, but if you watch the games, he just doesn't have the stuff he did his first year as a Red. That is likely due to the league catching up to him. He still a fair pitcher, but not as good as he once was.

I think his stuff has just shifted. It's hard to argue his stuff has gotten less effective when he had a better strikeout rate in 2008 than 2006...