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dougdirt
06-16-2009, 01:41 PM
I saw this on another message board and I thought it was a pretty interesting idea worth tossing around to see how others would react.

Would you trade Homer Bailey for Brandon Wood in a 1 for 1 straight up deal?

Both players will be out of options after this year and must stick in the majors. Both have had some trouble adjusting to the majors in their previous calls, both are former top 10 prospects and both are performing well in AAA.



Brandon Wood Stats over the last 3 seasons

Year Age PA AB H 2B 3B HR BB SO AVG OBP SLG OPS BB% K% IsoP
2007 22 AAA 488 437 119 27 1 23 45 120 .272 .338 .497 835 9.2% 24.6% .225
2007 22 MLB 33 33 5 1 0 1 0 12 .152 .152 .273 425 0.0% 36.4% .121
2008 23 AAA 447 395 118 21 2 31 45 103 .299 .378 .597 975 10.1% 23.0% .298
2008 23 MLB 157 150 30 4 0 5 4 43 .200 .223 .327 550 2.5% 27.4% .127
2009 24 AAA 202 179 54 9 1 15 22 39 .302 .376 .615 991 10.9% 19.3% .313




Homer Bailey stats over the past three years

Year Age IP TBF H HR BB K ERA BB% K% K/BB
2007 21 AAA 67.1 278 49 4 32 59 3.07 11.5% 21.2% 1.8
2007 21 MLB 45.1 205 43 3 28 28 5.76 13.7% 13.7% 1.0
2008 22 AAA 111.1 480 118 10 46 96 4.77 9.6% 20.0% 2.1
2008 22 MLB 36.1 180 59 8 17 18 7.93 9.4% 10.0% 1.1
2009 23 AAA 74.2 320 74 9 24 67 3.13 7.5% 20.9% 2.8
2009 23 MLB 4.1 22 3 1 6 3 12.47 27.3% 13.6% 0.5


Both guys obviously have a lot of talent, but is this something you would do and why or why not?

Mario-Rijo
06-16-2009, 01:50 PM
I'd say probably not straight up, Homer is a pitcher and seems to have a slightly better future ahead of him at this point. Wood befuddles me but looking at the #'s he seems to have an awesome penchant for striking out. I'd have to see him to try to figure out what his issue is and if it's fixable. But it may not be fixable ala Brandon Larson, whereas I've seen enough of Homer to believe he will pitch in some capacity at the big league level. If the deal were expandable maybe something could be worked out but straight up I'd have to pass.

BuckeyeRedleg
06-16-2009, 02:01 PM
Yes, I would do this trade.

Bumstead
06-16-2009, 02:32 PM
hmmmm...very interesting concept probably for both teams. The Reds certainly have a spot for him next season at SS, and he can reasonably play SS. I think I would do it; I think the change of scenery would be good for both players and at least the Reds would still have some depth at pitching (meanwhile we have no real SS on the near horizon). I think if Wood was given the job, he would be fine; the Angels have kinda jerked him around when they have brought him up...Bailey probably feels the same way about how the Reds have used him...

Bum

LoganBuck
06-16-2009, 02:43 PM
Why has Brandon Wood not done anything at the MLB level? Based on his stats from the minors, and the position that he plays I want him, but what is the catch. I must plead ignorance of LA Angles of Anaheim baseball. I haven't watched a game of theirs since they were in the World Series.

GIDP
06-16-2009, 02:46 PM
Wood is viewed as a 3rd baseman long term isnt he?

Bumstead
06-16-2009, 02:55 PM
I'm not sure if that is the case or not. I believe that he has played mostly 3B in MLB because of injuries to Chone...My understanding is that he is about average defensively as a SS. This season in AAA he has played 25 games at SS (2 errors) and 18 games at 3B (2 errors) according to baseball reference.

Bum

dougdirt
06-16-2009, 02:59 PM
Why has Brandon Wood not done anything at the MLB level? Based on his stats from the minors, and the position that he plays I want him, but what is the catch. I must plead ignorance of LA Angles of Anaheim baseball. I haven't watched a game of theirs since they were in the World Series.

Well lets take a look at his usage pattern.

2009 - The Angels called him up April 21st. He got into 3 games. April 24th as a pinch hitter. April 26th (game in between) he got a start. Then he sat 4 games and started on May 2nd and went 2-4 with a walk. Then he was sent down 4 days later without playing again.

2008 - Called him up in late April. He started 11 of 12, struggled, then was sent down for 12 games, then called back up. Stuck with him for 18 games this time, then sent him back down. This time for 56 games. Then they called him up for roughly the last 30 games of the year where he hit .256/.270/.430. His main issue was 2 walks and 22 strikeouts over that time. Last year in AAA Wood was at 104/33 for K/BB. This year he is incredibly better at 39/22.

GOYA
06-16-2009, 03:15 PM
Since Homer added the splitter:

23.1 IP
17 H
1 ER
4 BB
23 K

The one run scored against him was by the league's best offense. Right now, Homer is not on the table.

I assume Wood plays in the PCL?

fearofpopvol1
06-16-2009, 03:19 PM
I'd pull the trigger, yes.

Would you do it Doug?

LoganBuck
06-16-2009, 03:21 PM
Could Wood be had for a package of anything not named Homer Bailey?

Roenicke + Francisco?

GIDP
06-16-2009, 03:21 PM
I'd like to think of it in terms of risk.

Both guys have struggled but which one would you guys think has the better chance of turning it around?

I'd lean towards bailey because of just the nature of pitching.

dougdirt
06-16-2009, 03:22 PM
Since Homer added the splitter:

23.1 IP
17 H
1 ER
4 BB
23 K

The one run scored against him was by the league's best offense. Right now, Homer is not on the table.

I assume Wood plays in the PCL?

Wood does indeed play in the PCL. I am not sure if I would pull the trigger on the deal. I would like to see Wood play this year to be honest. With that said, I think that while Bailey is the #1 arm not in the majors, the #2 guy is right there with him (Stewart). It makes moving him a little easier. Its a tough one though, I still think Bailey can be a #1 starter, but at the same time if the discipline improvements that Wood is showing are real, he can be an all start at SS or 3B.

dougdirt
06-16-2009, 03:23 PM
Could Wood be had for a package of anything not named Homer Bailey?

Roenicke + Francisco?

I would doubt it. I think maybe if you replace Roenicke with maybe Travis Wood you might be on the right track, but still probably have to add something to that package.

JaxRed
06-16-2009, 03:32 PM
I would trade Arroyo or Cordero for him.

lollipopcurve
06-16-2009, 03:38 PM
Keep in mind that Arroyo and Harang are getting older, not better. Owings is marginal. Volquez is having some health issues.

Zach Stewart has a handful of minor league starts under his belt. I don't think that qualifies as an adequate insurance policy for the major league 5-man rotation.

Wood's a corner guy anyway, and the Reds are set there, I think.

No way on this deal.

edabbs44
06-16-2009, 03:44 PM
I would do it.

Will M
06-16-2009, 03:56 PM
Doug,

this is a trade i have suggested before. both are former grade A prospects who for whatever reason have stalled at AAA. just as Reds fans wonder if Bailey will ever get it done in a Reds uniform I suspect Angels fans wonder if Wood will ever get it done in an Angels uniform. both players seem to need a change of scenery. it could be a win-win type trade for both teams.

- Will

GOYA
06-16-2009, 04:11 PM
Wood's a corner guy anyway, and the Reds are set there, I think.

He has played quite a bit of SS and has done OK there. He's no Janish.
Keep in mind that the PCL inflates stats a bit, Wood's low BB rate and the apparent consistency now shown by Homer and I have to agree that this is a poor trade.

lollipopcurve
06-16-2009, 04:18 PM
He has played quite a bit of SS and has done OK there. He's no Janish.

They've been playing him at 1B lately. He won't end up at SS.

Bumstead
06-16-2009, 04:40 PM
He has played 3 games at 1B in his Minor League career...what do you base your statement "He won't end up at SS" on? He has been an effective SS in the minors.

Bum

krm1580
06-16-2009, 04:40 PM
I say no

I am a firm believer in the theory that you can never have too much pitching. If you look around the league and see how much garbage there is at the back end of most major league rotations, you can really do some damage over 162 games if your #4 or #5 guys profile as league average #3. I think realistically Homer can be a #3.

Wood on the other hand profiles as a 3b or 1B, not a SS. He has not proven he can do it at the major league level yet and we already have log jams in the minors at those spots he really does not fill any gap within the organization.

lollipopcurve
06-16-2009, 04:46 PM
He has played 3 games at 1B in his Minor League career...what do you base your statement "He won't end up at SS" on? He has been an effective SS in the minors.


He's played mostly 3B in his time in Anaheim, he's been playing 1B in AAA lately, and he's a big guy who doesn't have a lot of range.

Bumstead
06-16-2009, 05:02 PM
I don't see any 'hard' evidence there that suggests he cannot play SS. Have you looked at Salt Lake's roster? They have very little in the infield at all (other than Kendrick at 2B). He is pretty much playing everywhere and he has played a lot more SS even this year than other positions. I don't think one can see that he has played 2 out of the last 7 games at 1B (and 3 in his minor league career) and decide that he can't play SS. He isn't small, but he isn't immobile or larger than other SS from the past that have been effective (Ripken, A-Rod). He has always been credited with being an average SS defensively. When did this change? Doug, what do you think?

Bum

dougdirt
06-16-2009, 05:04 PM
As far as I have heard, nothing has changed in the idea that Wood can't play at SS. He certainly has not carried as bad of a wrap at SS as our own Chris Valaika has and most guys don't seem to have an issue with him sticking there.

lollipopcurve
06-16-2009, 05:11 PM
I don't see any 'hard' evidence there that suggests he cannot play SS. Have you looked at Salt Lake's roster? They have very little in the infield at all (other than Kendrick at 2B). He is pretty much playing everywhere and he has played a lot more SS even this year than other positions. I don't think one can see that he has played 2 out of the last 7 games at 1B (and 3 in his minor league career) and decide that he can't play SS. He isn't small, but he isn't immobile or larger than other SS from the past that have been effective (Ripken, A-Rod). He has always been credited with being an average SS defensively.

The game is evolving, and defense is becoming more important. Wood as a SS is on the wrong side of that trend.

dougdirt
06-16-2009, 05:16 PM
The game is evolving, and defense is becoming more important. Wood as a SS is on the wrong side of that trend.

And Alex Gonzalez with a .500 OPS isn't on the wrong side of everything?

lollipopcurve
06-16-2009, 05:22 PM
And Alex Gonzalez with a .500 OPS isn't on the wrong side of everything?

Do you disagree with the notion that the game is evolving towards an increased emphasis on defense?

Time will tell if Wood's a SS.

dougdirt
06-16-2009, 05:23 PM
Do you disagree with the notion that the game is evolving towards an increased emphasis on defense?

Time will tell if Wood's a SS.

I think its evolving to a point where lesser bats don't hurt as much because the leagues OPS is down across the board. Still, if some of the options are .600 OPS shortstops of Brandon Wood types, give me the BW types all day long.

*BaseClogger*
06-16-2009, 05:26 PM
Who cares about trends? I want the best baseball players...

GOYA
06-16-2009, 06:24 PM
I am a firm believer in the theory that you can never have too much pitching. If you look around the league and see how much garbage there is at the back end of most major league rotations, you can really do some damage over 162 games if your #4 or #5 guys profile as league average #3.

Not if you can't score any runs.


The game is evolving, and defense is becoming more important.

And pitching is defense #1.

nemesis
06-16-2009, 06:34 PM
Who cares about trends? I want the best baseball players...

+1

mth123
06-16-2009, 07:01 PM
If Wood can stick at SS I do it. Otherwise, I'd try a different package.

GOYA
06-16-2009, 07:11 PM
The Salt Lake Bees ballpark is 4,229 feet above sea level

Mario-Rijo
06-16-2009, 07:26 PM
Well lets take a look at his usage pattern.

2009 - The Angels called him up April 21st. He got into 3 games. April 24th as a pinch hitter. April 26th (game in between) he got a start. Then he sat 4 games and started on May 2nd and went 2-4 with a walk. Then he was sent down 4 days later without playing again.

2008 - Called him up in late April. He started 11 of 12, struggled, then was sent down for 12 games, then called back up. Stuck with him for 18 games this time, then sent him back down. This time for 56 games. Then they called him up for roughly the last 30 games of the year where he hit .256/.270/.430. His main issue was 2 walks and 22 strikeouts over that time. Last year in AAA Wood was at 104/33 for K/BB. This year he is incredibly better at 39/22.

Speaking of trends that's an interesting one! Call me on the fence but I'd still lean away from trading Homer for him presently. I'd like to find out more about his defense. And maybe see if I can dig up anything about him making any adjustments that would have caused such an improvement in the K/BB ratio. I'd certainly like to add all the legit potential SS prospects I can until I find a good one though no doubt.

GOYA
06-16-2009, 07:42 PM
I'd rather look for a legit catching prospect. With Cozart almost ready for AAA, SS is not a pressing need and we may have a jam up there when Valaika returns. Catcher is clear all the way down to Coddington.

(I can't believe Mesoraco made the FSL All-Star team)

(edit: because I'm an idiot)

HokieRed
06-16-2009, 07:57 PM
How about a legit catching prospect plus Brandon Wood? The Angels have a 21 year old at AA named Hank Conger who is the Project Prospect #128. What would it take to get Wood and Conger and maybe take care of two problems for the next several years?

fearofpopvol1
06-16-2009, 08:58 PM
I think its evolving to a point where lesser bats don't hurt as much because the leagues OPS is down across the board. Still, if some of the options are .600 OPS shortstops of Brandon Wood types, give me the BW types all day long.

you still didn't answer whether you would do it or not.

dougdirt
06-16-2009, 09:21 PM
you still didn't answer whether you would do it or not.

Still not sure if I would or not. I would like to see Brandon Wood play this year before making that kind of decision.

flash
06-16-2009, 11:01 PM
I like it. Shortstop could be a problem next year. I really can't see the Reds resigning Gonzalez at his present salary. All of the Reds prospects at short are maybes and Woods is probably better than all of them. Whether or not they do well Arroyo and Harang are here through 2010. No one will take their salaries in this economy with their stats like they are. The other Woods should be ready and there is Fairel and Stewart.

redsfandan
06-17-2009, 09:49 AM
How about a legit catching prospect plus Brandon Wood? The Angels have a 21 year old at AA named Hank Conger who is the Project Prospect #128. What would it take to get Wood and Conger and maybe take care of two problems for the next several years?From what little I've read it seems that it's questionable that Conger will provide enough defensively to stick at catcher.

I like it. Shortstop could be a problem next year. I really can't see the Reds resigning Gonzalez at his present salary. All of the Reds prospects at short are maybes and Woods is probably better than all of them. Whether or not they do well Arroyo and Harang are here through 2010. No one will take their salaries in this economy with their stats like they are. The other Woods should be ready and there is Fairel and Stewart.
And 2010 is just around the corner. After 2010 one will likely be gone and it's possible that both could be gone. I'm not sure we can say we have enough pitching depth to deal Bailey for a player who may end up at 3rd (where we have depth) instead of ss.