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OnBaseMachine
06-18-2009, 11:33 AM
Louisville - 7:05 - RHP Justin Lehr

Carolina plays a doubleheader with game one starting at 12:00. RHP Zach Stewart and LHP Travis Wood are the scheduled starters. Wood enters having thrown 26 consecutive shutout innings.

Sarasota - 7:00 - LHP Travis Webb

Dayton - 7:00 - LHP Matt Fairel

Edd Roush
06-18-2009, 11:45 AM
OBM, does it look like Carolina is going to start on time today? What is the weather looking like?

OnBaseMachine
06-18-2009, 12:06 PM
OBM, does it look like Carolina is going to start on time today? What is the weather looking like?

I just checked the weather for Knoxville and it appears the weather will be fine during the afternoon but storms are moving in this evening.

OnBaseMachine
06-18-2009, 12:08 PM
Stewart is pitching game one.

Henry walked
Heisey struckout
Alonso singled

BRM
06-18-2009, 12:14 PM
Lineup for game 1:

Henry RF
Heisey CF
Alonso 1B
Frazier LF
Francisco 3B
Cozart SS
Eymann 2B
Denove C
Stewart P

BRM
06-18-2009, 12:15 PM
Frazier popped out then Henry got picked off at second to end the threat in the 1st.

Benihana
06-18-2009, 12:16 PM
Lineup for game 1:

Henry RF
Heisey CF
Alonso 1B
Frazier LF
Francisco 3B
Cozart SS
Eymann 2B
Denove C
Stewart P

That is a nice looking lineup for AA. :thumbup:

OnBaseMachine
06-18-2009, 12:18 PM
Stewart: 1 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 0 K, 2 GO/0 FO

BRM
06-18-2009, 12:22 PM
That is a nice looking lineup for AA. :thumbup:

It's far more interesting than what the Reds are throwing out there today.

OnBaseMachine
06-18-2009, 12:22 PM
Juan Francisco walks to begin the second inning and Cozart follows with a 2-run HR (#7). 2-0 Carolina.

BRM
06-18-2009, 12:23 PM
I'm really liking Zack Cozart.

JaxRed
06-18-2009, 12:24 PM
Juan Francisco walks to begin the second inning ......

What? :)

BRM
06-18-2009, 12:37 PM
Stewart running into some trouble in the 2nd. Single, walk, single for Tennessee scores a run to make it 2-1. Runners still on 1st and 2nd with one out.

OnBaseMachine
06-18-2009, 12:41 PM
Stewart gets the next batter to flyout for the second out but then he hits the pitcher on an 0-2 pitch. Bases loaded, two outs. That HBP could come back to haunt him.

OnBaseMachine
06-18-2009, 12:42 PM
A groundout ends the inning.

2 IP, 3 H, 1 R, 1 BB, 0 K, 4 GO/1 FO

OnBaseMachine
06-18-2009, 12:50 PM
Top 3:

Henry walks for the second time today. Heisey singles. Alonso singles to score Henry. 3-1 Carolina.

BRM
06-18-2009, 12:51 PM
Alonso is warming up after a bit of a slow start in AA.

Edd Roush
06-18-2009, 12:53 PM
This line-up is so fun to follow. I am glad they are producing; these are the kind of guys we need to package up for a starting shortstop. I have been reading these threads for forever and perpetually waiting for the wave of the future. I have learned that you have to go out there and make the future now. I really hope Walt finds a good short stop to target and we cash in some of these minor league chips.

OnBaseMachine
06-18-2009, 12:53 PM
Frazier grounded into a DP to score Heisey and Francisco grounded out. 4-1 Carolina after 2 1/2 innings.

nemesis
06-18-2009, 01:01 PM
This line-up is so fun to follow. I am glad they are producing; these are the kind of guys we need to package up for a starting shortstop. I have been reading these threads for forever and perpetually waiting for the wave of the future. I have learned that you have to go out there and make the future now. I really hope Walt finds a good short stop to target and we cash in some of these minor league chips.

While I agree we finally have so many talented ball players in our system for the first time in well 20 - 25 years if not longer, I still don't understand why everyone is in a rush to trade them. It constantly amazes me that people talk about going out a getting a good young shortstop when we might have one of the best in the minors in our system in Cozart. Who hit another HR today. I guess the grass is greener when the prospect comes from other system...

I mean are we as Reds fans so cynical that we don't have ANY trust in our system to turn out top players? Even after Bruce, Votto, Hanigan, Cueto?

I say sit on what we got, give Valakia a try next year and give Cozart another year to develop... He made the jump from Dayton to Carolina and is doing quite well at the dish.... OPSing around .850

Edd Roush
06-18-2009, 01:05 PM
While I agree we finally agree we have so many talented ball players in our system for the first time in well 20 - 25 years if not longer, I still don't understand why everyone is in a rush to trade them.

I just realize that even good hitting AA players still have a pretty high flame-out rate. And when I said a good young shortstop I should have clarified that more. I do not want another prospect similar to Cozart in that he is still likely 1-2 years away, I want a guy like Emmanuel Burriss or Elvis Andrus who will be starters for the next 5-6 years. I know Elvis Andrus is untouchable right now, but I would sure give a lot to both get Gonzalez out of the line-up and add a staple to the line-up for many years to come.

I don't want to wait on Cozart because I am starting to believe 2 1/2 months into this season that if Votto comes back to play the way he did before his mysterious injuries, EdE hits like he did last year and Volkie comes back healthy that we are a legit shortstop away from being a borderline playoff team. I just don't want to wait any more. Let's cash these chips in and compete in our Phillips, Harang, Arroyo window.

OnBaseMachine
06-18-2009, 01:09 PM
Stewart is struggling some today.

3 IP, 6 H, 1 ER, 1 BB, 1 K, 5 GO/2 FO

All six hits have been singles.

nemesis
06-18-2009, 01:10 PM
Let's cash these chips in and compete in our Phillips, Harang, Arroyo window.


Now that I completely agree with. I just don't see to many teams giving up that SS of the future for nothing less than a goldmine. Andrus is the cream of the crop obviously... Who might be had for a Harang/Arroyo + prospects to Texas type deal. At least he would be my cornerstone return plus Max Rameriez if Harang was involved. My question is we go out and say get Andrus but Gonzalez is still on the roster, is there ANY way a Players manager like Dusty sits him in favor of a rookie?

OnBaseMachine
06-18-2009, 01:14 PM
Cozart homers again! 5-2 Carolina.

He's 2-for-2 with two homers (#7, 8) and 3 RBI.

BRM
06-18-2009, 01:18 PM
And he plays defense too. Could he put up a .571 OPS in Cincinnati right now?

JaxRed
06-18-2009, 01:27 PM
Hmmm... Stewart came out..... Don't like that.

dougdirt
06-18-2009, 01:27 PM
And he plays defense too. Could he put up a .571 OPS in Cincinnati right now?

Maybe, but it doesn't matter. I am pretty sure Paul Janish could put up a .571 OPS right now too, but he isn't getting a chance either and placing him in the lineup is a lot easier for the Reds to do.

Still, Cozart is turning into a really good prospect. He isn't a top 100 prospect or anything, but he is likely a Top 200 guy when you consider his defense and his bat. If his plate discipline keeps going like April/June (18 walks, 20 K's) and less like May (10 walks, 24 K's), he has a good shot to see significant time in Cincinnati next year at some point.

dougdirt
06-18-2009, 01:28 PM
Hmmm... Stewart came out..... Don't like that.

I wouldn't read much into it. The Reds are trying to limit his pitches and innings, I think there are set games where he gets 60 or so pitches and is done for the game to limit him throughout the season. I was listening to the game and the announcers didn't seem concerned at all that Stewart didn't come back out for the 4th, so I wouldn't worry.

mace
06-18-2009, 01:28 PM
Elvis Andrus is being hailed for making an immense difference on the Rangers. And I don't dispute that. But he's not doing it with offense. His offense, this year, has been a tad better than Gonzalez's, but don't forget that Gonzalez is coming off a major injury that cost him a season. Defensively, it seems to me that Gonzalez has been nearly impeccable. I mean, truly outstanding. Don't you think he's a major reason why the Reds' pitching is so profoundly better this year? I realize that it's been frustrating to see him struggle at the plate. And I don't like the idea of him hitting in the 2-hole, even though he's swinging the bat a lot better lately. But I don't understand the urgency of getting him out of the lineup. I think he's a significant reason that the Reds are over .500 and hanging in.

OnBaseMachine
06-18-2009, 01:31 PM
Stewart's final line: 3 IP, 6 H, 2 R, 1 BB, 1 K, 5 GO/2 FO

For some reason, the second run was changed back to earned. I like the decision to pull him after three because his pitch count was starting to pile up.

OnBaseMachine
06-18-2009, 01:35 PM
Alonso is 3-for-3.

dougdirt
06-18-2009, 01:36 PM
Alonso is 3-for-3.

Stud. (Alonso, not OBM :cool:)

GOYA
06-18-2009, 01:41 PM
Cozart homers again! 5-2 Carolina.

He's 2-for-2 with two homers (#7, 8) and 3 RBI.

Not to say I told you so but,

I told you so. :D

OnBaseMachine
06-18-2009, 01:42 PM
Cozart K's in his third atbat. Send him back to Dayton. ;)

GIDP
06-18-2009, 01:43 PM
Marc Katz is drooling over that OBM!!!!

OnBaseMachine
06-18-2009, 01:44 PM
Marc Katz is drooling over that OBM!!!!

:laugh:

GIDP
06-18-2009, 01:45 PM
He wrote his yearly Oh the reds hate Dayton story a couple days ago haha

OnBaseMachine
06-18-2009, 02:12 PM
Carolina takes a 6-5 lead in the 8th inning on back-to-back doubles by Frazier and Francisco.

OnBaseMachine
06-18-2009, 02:13 PM
Cozart follows with a walk.

dougdirt
06-18-2009, 02:17 PM
Cozart follows with a walk.

Does anyone know how to cook up some good crow? When he was picked I was not a fan at all. I didn't see the bat at all and thought he was basically Adam Everett with a little less glove.

OnBaseMachine
06-18-2009, 02:18 PM
Does anyone know how to cook up some good crow? When he was picked I was not a fan at all. I didn't see the bat at all and thought he was basically Adam Everett with a little less glove.

I hated the pick too. But right now I'm loving it.

BRM
06-18-2009, 02:19 PM
I don't remember too many people who actually liked that pick so you two certainly aren't alone.

camisadelgolf
06-18-2009, 02:37 PM
In August of 2007, we all put together our personal top-20 Reds prospects lists, and BuckeyeRedleg and I ranked him the highest (at #19). :D
I also had this to say:

I love Zach Cozart. When we were doing the mock draft, I saw video of Cozart, and I was just as impressed with his hitting as his glove.

I just found this quote in a thread that had me arguing with someone about whether Cozart was a better prospect than Jose Castro. I hate to call OBM out, but I had to laugh when I read it.

I was baffled on draft day when the Reds chose Cozart with that high of a draft pick and I remain baffled to this day. That was a waste of a pick IMO.

OnBaseMachine
06-18-2009, 02:39 PM
Carolina is tied 6-6 heading into the 10th inning.

OnBaseMachine
06-18-2009, 02:54 PM
Carolina is in a rain delay in the top of the 10th inning.

medford
06-18-2009, 03:31 PM
I didn't know anything about Cozart when he was drafted, and couldn't have had an opinion of him at the time, but I loved his approach at the plate the first time I saw him in Dayton. He was one of those kids that "just gets it" when he was at the plate. I don't know how that translates as he continues to progress, but he seemed to have a Joey Vottoesque focus at the plate w/ a solid idea of what he wanted to do.

Its nice to see that in the last calender year (my son had just been born about 2 weeks old, and he's now a week shy of 1), he's followed thru w/ great showings in his batting line.

He never had a chance to showcase anything defensively, but if the reports are true, I think he could be an impact player both ways.

OnBaseMachine
06-18-2009, 04:59 PM
They have finally resumed play in the top of the 10th inning after a 2+ hour rain delay.

OnBaseMachine
06-18-2009, 05:10 PM
According to Gameday, Cozart flied out to the wall in dead center in the 10th inning, just missing his third HR of the game.

On to the 11th inning.

OnBaseMachine
06-18-2009, 05:32 PM
Still 6-6 in the 12th. Alonso flied out to the wall/track in left center. Frazier walked.

OnBaseMachine
06-18-2009, 05:43 PM
Carolina lost game one 7-6 in 12 innings.

Henry: 0-for-3 two walks, HBP
Heisey: 1-for-6
Alonso: 3-for-6 SB
Frazier: 1-for-4 double, two walks
Francisco: 1-for-5 double, walk
Cozart: 2-for-4 two homers (#7, 8), walk, 3 RBI
Castro: 1-for-2

Stewart: 3 IP, 6 H, 2 R, 1 BB, 1 K, 5 GO/2 FO

Valiquette: 2 IP, 1 H, 1 R, 0 BB, 1 K

bubbachunk
06-18-2009, 06:12 PM
Why was Stewarts day so short?

OesterPoster
06-18-2009, 07:01 PM
Votto is listed in the Sarasota lineup, hitting third and playing 1B.

dougdirt
06-18-2009, 07:22 PM
Why was Stewarts day so short?

Threw 68 pitches in 3 innings and the Reds are trying to keep his innings down anyways. Made a simple decision to just pull him there.

dougdirt
06-18-2009, 07:24 PM
Carolina is tied at 2 after 4 in game 2. Cozart is 2-2 with an RBI.

OnBaseMachine
06-18-2009, 08:19 PM
Wood's final line: 5 IP, 8 H, 3 R, 1 BB, 6 K...I believe that's the first time he's allowed three runs in a game this season.

klw
06-18-2009, 08:31 PM
Votto is listed in the Sarasota lineup, hitting third and playing 1B.

Votto with a walk and a K in his first two at bats.

http://web.minorleaguebaseball.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2009_06_18_clrafa_sarafa_1&t=g_log&did=milb

OnBaseMachine
06-18-2009, 08:37 PM
By the way, Chris Valaika is back in the Louisville lineup tonight. He's 0-for-2 so far. This is his first game since May 7th.

OnBaseMachine
06-18-2009, 08:40 PM
Carolina won game two, 6-3.

Henry: 0-for-3
Heisey: 1-for-2 two HBP
Alonso: 0-for-2
Frazier: 1-for-4
Francisco: 3-for-4 HR (#13), 4 RBI
Cozart: 2-for-4
Castro: 2-for-3

Wood: 5 IP, 8 H, 3 R, 1 BB, 6 K

Watson: 2 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 1 BB, 1 K

redhawk61
06-18-2009, 08:48 PM
Not a bad day at the yard for Mr. Cozart

Kc61
06-18-2009, 08:55 PM
Too bad Francisco doesn't walk enough. Guy is a powerhouse.

dougdirt
06-18-2009, 09:19 PM
Scott Carroll - 5ip, 1h, 0r, 1bb, 1K, 13GO/1FO

crbell6
06-18-2009, 09:31 PM
...

camisadelgolf
06-18-2009, 09:31 PM
Watson: 2 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 1 BB, 1 K
That's 16.2 consecutive innings of scoreless ball. I really think he's been underrated by a lot of us here.

GOYA
06-18-2009, 09:32 PM
Better late than never. Big PC problems. I'm posting by rubbing two sticks together.

Birmingham leads Huntsville 3-0 in the 6th. Carolina can close to within a half game with a Huntsville loss.

Bats up 3-1 going to the 9th.

crbell6
06-18-2009, 09:38 PM
....

GOYA
06-18-2009, 09:38 PM
Manuel with a perfect 9th with 2 Ks.

Bats win 3-1.

redsmetz
06-18-2009, 09:40 PM
That's dumbest comment I have ever seen!

I see you're new, so you might not have noticed the smiling, winking face. OBM was just kidding around, faux outrage and all that. Welcome to RZ!

mace
06-18-2009, 09:43 PM
Dayton wins 5-4 on a walk-off home run by Rojas(!) leading off the ninth.

I'm starting to warm to that little guy.

OnBaseMachine
06-18-2009, 09:51 PM
That's dumbest comment I have ever seen!

Thanks. You do realize it was a joke, right?

OnBaseMachine
06-18-2009, 09:52 PM
The Louisville bullpen continues to pitch well.

Viola: 1 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 1 K

Manuel: 1 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 2 K

GOYA
06-18-2009, 09:54 PM
The Louisville bullpen continues to dominate some of the best hitting teams in the league.

Viola: 1 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 1 K

Manuel: 1 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 2 K


Fixed that for ya. :wink:

OnBaseMachine
06-18-2009, 09:57 PM
Matt Fairel: 7 IP, 6 H, 3 ER, 4 BB, 6 K

Benihana
06-18-2009, 10:17 PM
Not the best outings for any of the top starters tonight. Oh well, you're not going to have your best stuff every night.

Blitz Dorsey
06-18-2009, 11:05 PM
Does anyone know how to cook up some good crow? When he was picked I was not a fan at all. I didn't see the bat at all and thought he was basically Adam Everett with a little less glove.

Yes, I think I have that right next to my "Reds should have taken Scheppers in the sandwich round" recipe.

Caveat Emperor
06-18-2009, 11:35 PM
That's 16.2 consecutive innings of scoreless ball. I really think he's been underrated by a lot of us here.

I think that's mostly leftover feelings of distaste that the Reds used a 2nd round pick for a relief pitcher.

fearofpopvol1
06-18-2009, 11:55 PM
I think that's mostly leftover feelings of distaste that the Reds used a 2nd round pick for a relief pitcher.

I would argue that any player selected in any round that makes it to the major leagues that contributes positive numbers to the team is a sound pick.

I could maybe see the beef if he was a first round pick...but as a 2nd rounder or higher? Not so much.

I think it's severely underestimated the amount of players that don't ever reach the bigs or contribute anything of value to teams...in all rounds.

GOYA
06-19-2009, 12:32 AM
Birmingham came through with 2 in the bottom of the 9th to beat Huntsville 5-4. Carolina is a half game back with full head of steam.

Benihana
06-19-2009, 12:58 PM
I would argue that any player selected in any round that makes it to the major leagues that contributes positive numbers to the team is a sound pick.

I could maybe see the beef if he was a first round pick...but as a 2nd rounder or higher? Not so much.

I think it's severely underestimated the amount of players that don't ever reach the bigs or contribute anything of value to teams...in all rounds.

Sound? Maybe.

But exciting or even better than status quo? Nope.

A team like the Reds needs to produce average to above average major leaguers on a good amount (more than the league average) of their top 50 selections* if they ever want be more than a .500 team. Other teams can afford to whiff (or even bunt as I liken drafting a relief pitcher in the Top 50) on their top selections, but the Reds can't- at least, not at a league average pace.

Right now, Sean Watson projects to be neither. While he has had some success this year in his second season in AA, he'll be lucky if he ever spends a full season on a big league roster. If he does, it will most likely not be as a closer or even a set-up man. That is not a sound Top 50 draft pick IMO, at least not for a small-market team that needs those picks to deliver.

I'm hoping Boxberger fares significantly better.


*Watson was drafted 52nd overall

RedlegJake
06-19-2009, 01:43 PM
If you're a fan of the Peter Principle it seems LeCure and Jukich, who looked fairly good in AA (as in possible EOR starters) have reached that magic level of incompetence at AAA. I hope time and perhaps another year help but it sure looks like they've plateaued short of the mark as prospects.

RedlegJake
06-19-2009, 01:48 PM
A team like the Reds needs to produce average to above average major leaguers on a good amount (more than the league average) of their top 50 selections if they ever want be more than a .500 team.

Other teams can afford to whiff (or even bunt as I liken drafting a relief pitcher in the Top 50) on their top selections, but the Reds can't- at least, not at a league average pace.

I agree with #1 but disagree with #2. EVERY team whiffes on their top selections a whole lot more than they hit. To me the importance isn't how well your top guys turn out but how well the overall draft turns out. That means getting an impact player (All Star caliber) every couple years and better than average numbers of solid major league players regardless whether that is starters or good competent utility men. Even utility guys help a lot because you can save a bundle if you're paying league minimum for those guys out of your system rather than 2-4 mill a year for veteran filler.
Getting that superstar top pick is almost pure luck. When it comes to the top picks almost everyone is in the same boat. Years where you punt like Sowers are the kind of picks the Reds can't afford. One of the reasons I like the Leake pick at the top is because he has good upside but is a safer bet than higher upside pitchers like Scheppers or Crow.

traderumor
06-19-2009, 02:02 PM
I just see a post in Sun Deck that Yonder broker his hand in last night's game. He was still hitting in the 12th. Anyone?

dougdirt
06-19-2009, 02:08 PM
I just see a post in Sun Deck that Yonder broker his hand in last night's game. He was still hitting in the 12th. Anyone?

He even played for 2 at bats in game 2. My guess is, something happened in game 2.

fearofpopvol1
06-19-2009, 02:31 PM
Sound? Maybe.

But exciting or even better than status quo? Nope.

A team like the Reds needs to produce average to above average major leaguers on a good amount (more than the league average) of their top 50 selections* if they ever want be more than a .500 team. Other teams can afford to whiff (or even bunt as I liken drafting a relief pitcher in the Top 50) on their top selections, but the Reds can't- at least, not at a league average pace.

Right now, Sean Watson projects to be neither. While he has had some success this year in his second season in AA, he'll be lucky if he ever spends a full season on a big league roster. If he does, it will most likely not be as a closer or even a set-up man. That is not a sound Top 50 draft pick IMO, at least not for a small-market team that needs those picks to deliver.

I'm hoping Boxberger fares significantly better.


*Watson was drafted 52nd overall

I agree with the premise that the Reds shouldn't intentionally try to draft relievers in the 1st or 2nd rounds. With that said, if they do and if they make it to the Show...I think it's hard to complain too much.

And your last statement...is just that...a "projection." There's no real way of knowing what will happens until it actually does. Until he starts to falter, I think it's hard really say much of anything.

Benihana
06-19-2009, 02:47 PM
And your last statement...is just that...a "projection." There's no real way of knowing what will happens until it actually does. Until he starts to falter, I think it's hard really say much of anything.

Of course it is, but isn't that the point of the Minor League Forum? To discuss the play of minor leaguers and how they project to the major league level?

Consider some context:

In four minor league season, Watson has an ERA of 3.76 and a WHIP of 1.29- not exactly earth-shattering numbers for a minor-league reliever who was drafted in the 50th round let alone drafted in the first 52 picks.

As a comparison, Robert Manuel, a college pitcher who went undrafted and who many believe still not to be a prospect has delivered a 2.93 ERA and a 1.09 WHIP with virtually the same K rate over the same time period as Watson. And he's now delivered a 1.84 ERA over almost 40 innings in AAA, a full level ahead of where Watson is sporting an ERA almost two runs higher in his best season yet.

fearofpopvol1
06-19-2009, 03:05 PM
Of course it is, but isn't that the point of the Minor League Forum? To discuss the play of minor leaguers and how they project to the major league level?

Consider some context:

In four minor league season, Watson has an ERA of 3.76 and a WHIP of 1.29- not exactly earth-shattering numbers for a minor-league reliever who was drafted in the 50th round let alone drafted in the first 52 picks.

As a comparison, Robert Manuel, a college pitcher who went undrafted and who many believe still not to be a prospect has delivered a 2.93 ERA and a 1.09 WHIP with virtually the same K rate over the same time period as Watson. And he's now delivered a 1.84 ERA over almost 40 innings in AAA, a full level ahead of where Watson is sporting an ERA almost two runs higher in his best season yet.

I understand all that, but I think you're writing off Watson prematurely. If he continues to thrive over the rest of this season (which may or may not happen), then he could be useful at the major league level.

dougdirt
06-19-2009, 03:13 PM
Of course it is, but isn't that the point of the Minor League Forum? To discuss the play of minor leaguers and how they project to the major league level?

Consider some context:

In four minor league season, Watson has an ERA of 3.76 and a WHIP of 1.29- not exactly earth-shattering numbers for a minor-league reliever who was drafted in the 50th round let alone drafted in the first 52 picks.

As a comparison, Robert Manuel, a college pitcher who went undrafted and who many believe still not to be a prospect has delivered a 2.93 ERA and a 1.09 WHIP with virtually the same K rate over the same time period as Watson. And he's now delivered a 1.84 ERA over almost 40 innings in AAA, a full level ahead of where Watson is sporting an ERA almost two runs higher in his best season yet.

I would argue that any 50th round pick that has made it to AA is earth shattering in itself, much less kept an ERA under 4 and a WHIP under 1.40. Still, what Watson has done has little to do with what he may do. His numbers aren't worth a whole lot because well, he is in the minors and working to improve things. Numbers get overstated for minor leaguers at times. They are what they are, but they don't always project going forward in a good or bad way because one little tweak here or there can dramatically change the career of a player. Watson has put up decent numbers through the minors. They haven't been great, but for the most part, they haven't been bad either. Those numbers though don't tell us anything about his future as a major leaguer (if he gets there) though. They tell us what he did as a minor leaguer at that specific point in time.

Benihana
06-19-2009, 03:38 PM
I would argue that any 50th round pick that has made it to AA is earth shattering in itself

So you're saying Robert Manuel is earth-shattering? He's worse than a 50th round pick- he went undrafted.


Still, what Watson has done has little to do with what he may do. His numbers aren't worth a whole lot because well, he is in the minors and working to improve things. They are what they are, but they don't always project going forward in a good or bad way because one little tweak here or there can dramatically change the career of a player...Those numbers though don't tell us anything about his future as a major leaguer (if he gets there) though. They tell us what he did as a minor leaguer at that specific point in time.

Um, then what's the point of ever following the minor leagues?

I'm not saying numbers in the minors are everything- they certainly aren't. There is certainly something to scouting and projection. But numbers (particularly in the higher minors) do tell an important part of the story, especially when they have never been extraordinary at any level.

dougdirt
06-19-2009, 05:00 PM
So you're saying Robert Manuel is earth-shattering? He's worse than a 50th round pick- he went undrafted.

It is. The number of guys who go undrafted but sign to play in the minors are incredibly high. The number of guys who reach AAA of that group is incredibly low. So yeah, the fact that Manuel has reached AAA, much less done very well while doing so is pretty incredible.



Um, then what's the point of ever following the minor leagues?

I'm not saying numbers in the minors are everything- they certainly aren't. There is certainly something to scouting and projection. But numbers (particularly in the higher minors) do tell an important part of the story, especially when they have never been extraordinary at any level.
We all follow the minor leagues for different reasons, but the minor leagues are more for learning and improving than they are for having good stats. What good does it do player X to put up good stats if he is doing it in a way that isn't going to make him a good major leaguer? It doesn't do them much good. Its nice when guys can learn and put up good numbers at the same time, but thats not always the case. Especially with pitchers, something as simple as the way a coach says something to you may be the thing that takes you from good arm/no clue how to use it to good arm/good pitcher. Is that whats going on with Watson? I have no idea. But looking at stats, particularly ones that haven't come recently, doesn't tell me much at all about a player because minor leaguers, ones at a reasonable age, can change very quickly.

Benihana
06-19-2009, 05:13 PM
We all follow the minor leagues for different reasons, but the minor leagues are more for learning and improving than they are for having good stats. What good does it do player X to put up good stats if he is doing it in a way that isn't going to make him a good major leaguer? It doesn't do them much good. Its nice when guys can learn and put up good numbers at the same time, but thats not always the case. Especially with pitchers, something as simple as the way a coach says something to you may be the thing that takes you from good arm/no clue how to use it to good arm/good pitcher. Is that whats going on with Watson? I have no idea. But looking at stats, particularly ones that haven't come recently, doesn't tell me much at all about a player because minor leaguers, ones at a reasonable age, can change very quickly.

Sure, they can change at the flip of a switch. But in the interest of probability, a four-year minor league track record of mediocrity, especially when you're talking about a relief pitcher from a big-time college program, is more of an indication of future success than you seem to be implying.

If Leake or Boxberger is a reliever in AA four years from now with a career ERA of 3.76, I'll be disappointed with the pick, period.