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View Full Version : Arroyo Being Shopped????



TheNext44
06-22-2009, 02:18 PM
http://www.boston.com/sports/baseball/articles/2009/06/21/stumped_by_their_slumps/?page=4

Via Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe




2. Bronson Arroyo, RHP, Reds: One of the hot rumors among the scouting community is that the Reds are dangling one of their veteran pitchers in an effort to get younger and reduce payroll. Arroyo, whose name has come up in the past, is earning $9.5 million this season as part of a two-year, $25 million deal. He will earn $11 million next season and has a $2 million buyout on an $11 million option in 2011. With starting pitching hard to find, the Reds could get a decent return.

MLBTR suggests it could also be Harang.

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2009/06/odds-and-ends--1.html

I think this started when Bailey learned his new pitch.

Falls City Beer
06-22-2009, 02:19 PM
This trade almost has to happen. He is eminently replaceable and a huge hindrance considering the payroll freeze (which is unlikely to thaw in the next several seasons).

traderumor
06-22-2009, 02:21 PM
No news there. Anyone looking at the Reds would see that as the most likely place to deal with them.

klw
06-22-2009, 02:23 PM
With Brad Penny as "the big name pitcher available" the market should be strong for Arroyo from a number of teams. With Dice-K to the DL long term there is no hurry for Penny to be moved either. the

redsfandan
06-22-2009, 02:24 PM
It's true that we've known that those two (Arroyo/Harang) were the most marketable. I wonder if there was a team we could match up with that needs a starting pitcher but has a decent offensive player they could swap that could help us this season.

Falls City Beer
06-22-2009, 02:32 PM
I can't imagine a deal involving Arroyo being anything but a salary dump. I have no problem with that.

Tom Servo
06-22-2009, 02:32 PM
So, any suggestions as to where to send him?

Benihana
06-22-2009, 02:32 PM
It's true that we've known that those two (Arroyo/Harang) were the most marketable. I wonder if there was a team we could match up with that needs a starting pitcher but has a decent offensive player they could swap that could help us this season.

His name is Alex Rios.

traderumor
06-22-2009, 02:33 PM
So, any suggestions as to where to send him?Toronto? The injury bug has hit their rotation.

jojo
06-22-2009, 02:34 PM
It will likely be tough to trade Arroyo if a significant part of the return is legit talent.

klw
06-22-2009, 02:36 PM
Toronto? The injury bug has hit their rotation.

Understatement of the year.

traderumor
06-22-2009, 02:41 PM
It will likely be tough to trade Arroyo if a significant part of the return is legit talent.Not if you package him right. My preference wouldn't be trading Arroyo alone, but a multi-player deal involving ours/theirs prospects as well.

klw
06-22-2009, 02:41 PM
My thought is that possbile suitors would include the Phillies, Rangers and anyone who had spent the time to look at Pedro.

Falls City Beer
06-22-2009, 02:42 PM
Possbile suitors would include the Phillies, Rangers and anyone who had spent the time to look at Pedro.

Good point.

Benihana
06-22-2009, 02:43 PM
I can't imagine a deal involving Arroyo being anything but a salary dump. I have no problem with that.

Not in this market. For once the Reds are actually on the right side of the market with this one. Jarrod Washburn is the only pitcher available at the moment who might be more desirable than Arroyo and even that could be debated.

The Reds should get a good return on Arroyo, especially if he can string together a few decent outings over the next month and guys like Peavy and Bedard stay on the shelf.

Benihana
06-22-2009, 02:44 PM
Possbile suitors would include the Phillies, Rangers

Which just happens to be two of the teams who's youngsters best fit the most pressing needs for the Reds (Elvis Andrus, Max Ramirez, Taylor Teagarden, Jason Donald, Michael Taylor, Lou Marson, etc.)

Benihana
06-22-2009, 02:45 PM
Not if you package him right. My preference wouldn't be trading Arroyo alone, but a multi-player deal involving ours/theirs prospects as well.

Chris Heisey anyone? Now's the perfect time to sell high on him.

REDREAD
06-22-2009, 02:46 PM
Personally, I don't want to trade Arroyo for purely salary relief.

Arroyo is overpriced in the "new" market salary structure, but he's not replacable.
Who is going to replace him at a significant cost savings? Certainly not Homer or Malony.

I really don't want to be in the position this offseason where we have to decide whether to offer a Josh Fogg type guy 3 million or a Kyle Lohse 7.5 million or a Brandon Looper about 5 million.. Sure, the club would save money that way, assuming these guys would actually want to come to Cincy at a Cardinals/Brewers salary, but it just seems to be a huge risk.

As much as I dread it, I think if you trade Arroyo, you might as well trade Harang and Phillips too. By the time the team rebulids, Coco's contract will have expired. I'm not sure there will be many fans left by the time that plays out though. Of course, then everyone will say that Votto and Bruce are too expensive, and the cycling begins again...

jojo
06-22-2009, 02:49 PM
Not in this market. For once the Reds are actually on the right side of the market with this one. Jarrod Washburn is the only pitcher available at the moment who might be more desirable than Arroyo and even that could be debated.

The Reds should get a good return on Arroyo, especially if he can string together a few decent outings over the next month and guys like Peavy and Bedard stay on the shelf.

Arroyo is still owed at least another $17-18M and this is for an arm that most would suggest eats innings. I guess good return needs to be defined, but I'm seeing it as a hard sell unless he's just part of a bigger deal. Given the Reds are rumored to be trying to get "younger and cheaper", it's tough to envision how the calculus would work on that "bigger deal".

Benihana
06-22-2009, 02:50 PM
Personally, I don't want to trade Arroyo for purely salary relief.

I don't either.



Who is going to replace him at a significant cost savings? Certainly not Homer or Malony.

I really don't want to be in the position this offseason where we have to decide whether to offer a Josh Fogg type guy 3 million or a Kyle Lohse 7.5 million or a Brandon Looper about 5 million.. Sure, the club would save money that way, assuming these guys would actually want to come to Cincy at a Cardinals/Brewers salary, but it just seems to be a huge risk.

Bailey is out of options. He has to fit somewhere (aka the rotation) next season or he should be traded immediately. My guess is he will end up in the former and Arroyo will be the latter.

jojo
06-22-2009, 02:51 PM
Which just happens to be two of the teams who's youngsters best fit the most pressing needs for the Reds (Elvis Andrus, Max Ramirez, Taylor Teagarden, Jason Donald, Michael Taylor, Lou Marson, etc.)

If Jocketty trades Arroyo straight up for just one of those guys, I'll buy FCB a beer because Jocketty will have clearly proven he can move mountains..... :cool:

klw
06-22-2009, 02:51 PM
I think I would add the Angels and Mets to the list as they both have had issues in the 4 and 5 spots of their rotations. The Yankees I don't think are as likely even though they looked at Pedro unless they get someone to take Wang out of their hands. I think the Cubs looked at Arroyo but I don't see him going to them or Milwaukee unless the trade is otherwise lopsided for the Reds. Arroyo is the sort of guy who would eat the Reds hitters up.

Caveat Emperor
06-22-2009, 02:53 PM
Trading Arroyo seems like a fantastic idea until you realize the Reds have no one in-house who can replace his 200 IP at roughly league average.

Any pay you save in tossing Arroyo is likely to be eaten finding someone else to compensate for the loss in run-prevention you have by throwing Arroyo out there every 5th day instead of the Maloneys, Ramirezs, and Thompsons of the minor league world.

reds44
06-22-2009, 03:02 PM
Arroyo for Yunell Escobar?

redsfandan
06-22-2009, 03:03 PM
Which just happens to be two of the teams who's youngsters best fit the most pressing needs for the Reds (Elvis Andrus, Max Ramirez, Taylor Teagarden, Jason Donald, Michael Taylor, Lou Marson, etc.)

If Jocketty trades Arroyo straight up for just one of those guys, I'll buy FCB a beer because Jocketty will have clearly proven he can move mountains..... :cool:
If we could land Andrus for Arroyo than he'll have a beer from me as well. If only...

Trading Arroyo seems like a fantastic idea until you realize the Reds have no one in-house who can replace his 200 IP at roughly league average. ...
On this team Arroyo is the 4th starter. I think Bailey can fill that role.

Falls City Beer
06-22-2009, 03:04 PM
Trading Arroyo seems like a fantastic idea until you realize the Reds have no one in-house who can replace his 200 IP at roughly league average.


That incarnation of Arroyo has sailed. What he currently is giving the Reds is replaceable, even in a tough trade market.

But yes, your point is dead on: the Reds have no starting depth. But I don't think it would be wise to hang on to a replaceable payroll anchor for that reason.

TheNext44
06-22-2009, 03:10 PM
If Jocketty trades Arroyo straight up for just one of those guys, I'll buy FCB a beer because Jocketty will have clearly proven he can move mountains..... :cool:


Originally Posted by Benihana
Which just happens to be two of the teams who's youngsters best fit the most pressing needs for the Reds (Elvis Andrus, Max Ramirez, Taylor Teagarden, Jason Donald, Michael Taylor, Lou Marson, etc.)


The article did say that a veteran starting pitcher is being shopped. Harang could get a few of those guys.

BCubb2003
06-22-2009, 03:10 PM
I've never understood the idea of "shopping." Walt Jocketty is well-paid and probably works at least eight hours a day ... talking to teams about players.

Some conversations go, "We like your shortstop." "We like your Volquez." "Um, no. How about Arroyo?"

So what does "shopping" mean, really? I'd expect most players to be "shopped" most of the time.

traderumor
06-22-2009, 03:13 PM
I've never understood the idea of "shopping." Walt Jocketty is well-paid and probably works at least eight hours a day ... talking to teams about players.

Some conversations go, "We like your shortstop." "We like your Volquez." "Um, no. How about Arroyo?"

So what does "shopping" mean, really? I'd expect most players to be "shopped" most of the time.Known to be available.

_Sir_Charles_
06-22-2009, 03:16 PM
I firmly believe that there is ZERO shot that we trade a starting pitcher this year. ANY of them. Jocketty knows that it takes pitching to win and no matter how many here think that Arroyo (or Harang) is expendable and overpriced, HE doesn't think that. Arroyo is nearly the perfect change of pace for our current rotation. If he was a lefty, he'd be perfect. But as it is, we've got 3 hard throwers (Volkie, Cueto & Harang) and Bronson gives teams a completely different look.

That being said, he's so far from easily replacable I find it laughable that people here are even suggesting it. I love Homer, but he has not proved ANYTHING on the big stage yet. Same goes for Micah. No way in the world do either of those guys replace 200 innings per year of quality ML starting. Sure, Bronson has his ups and downs. When he's on, he's fantastic. When he's off, he's attrocious. He is what he is. A middle of the rotation starter who's durable and eats a ton of innings saving your bullpen tons of innings. Also, considering Volquez's health this year, Harang's last year....I'm hanging onto the healthy arms to be sure. His salary is NOT overly cumbersome for this club.

Lastly, we've got a rotation that is mostly young guys (gets even younger once Homer comes up). Harang and Bronson give our rotation that stabalizing veteran presence. That aspect is vastly underrated in it's effect on young pitchers.

If I'm BLOWN AWAY by a deal that includes a MLB starting pitcher coming back plus more....I'd consider it. But at this point, it would have to blow me away to deal any of our starters.

redsfandan
06-22-2009, 03:42 PM
....
If I'm BLOWN AWAY by a deal that includes a MLB starting pitcher coming back plus more....I'd consider it. ...
A contender trading for a starting pitcher to help them and dealing a starting pitcher to do it? :confused:

Fwiw, IF something happens it probably won't happen for another 3+ weeks (since it's still only June 22nd).

_Sir_Charles_
06-22-2009, 03:53 PM
A contender trading for a starting pitcher to help them and dealing a starting pitcher to do it? :confused:

I know. It won't happen. And I don't want it to happen.

I couldn't care less how a trade affects the OTHER team, only how it affects us. And if we deal Arroyo (or Aaron) then we'll have a pretty big hole in our rotation. We'd have to get some pitching back to compensate. Could be a minor league starter close to ready, but AAA at least.

Homer is looking good, but he's not ready IMO to replace Arroyo (Owings, yes...but not Bronson). He needs to be allowed to ease into the rotation...not have that kind of pressure placed on him immediately.

To put it bluntly...I ride the horses we've got for the duration of thier contracts.

Kc61
06-22-2009, 03:54 PM
I firmly believe that there is ZERO shot that we trade a starting pitcher this year. ANY of them. Jocketty knows that it takes pitching to win and no matter how many here think that Arroyo (or Harang) is expendable and overpriced, HE doesn't think that. Arroyo is nearly the perfect change of pace for our current rotation. If he was a lefty, he'd be perfect. But as it is, we've got 3 hard throwers (Volkie, Cueto & Harang) and Bronson gives teams a completely different look.

If I'm BLOWN AWAY by a deal that includes a MLB starting pitcher coming back plus more....I'd consider it. But at this point, it would have to blow me away to deal any of our starters.

The economics are compelling. The Reds will take the risk of replacing Arroyo or Harang with Homer Bailey, who is a younger and cheaper alternative. They will save a bundle of money by doing this. They have a lot invested in Homer, so need to give him a chance. IMO, the logic of doing this is overwhelmingly in favor.

Will it work? Don't know. Will it help this year? Only if Homer is extraordinary when he comes up.

But this is the way to build a medium to small market team. Trade expensive players when you can replace them with younger and cheaper high-level talent. Use the savings to fill areas of need, where replacements aren't so available. Get young talent in the trades.

And after Homer comes up, Wood and Stewart will soon be at AAA and will be next in line.

Harang and Arroyo both have big salaries due in 2010 and, via option, 2011. I would be amazed to see them both stay as Reds very much longer -- one or the other is highly likely to be moved at the deadline or in the off-season.

nate
06-22-2009, 04:04 PM
I couldn't care less how a trade affects the OTHER team, only how it affects us.

The other team cares and since you can't really trade without another team, it's an important consideration.

fearofpopvol1
06-22-2009, 04:12 PM
I do not want the Reds trading Harang unless the return is great.

I'm also one who does not want the Reds trading Arroyo for salary relief.

And I most certainly feel this way when there aren't suitable replacements ready (or near ready). Any of you that think Bailey will come in and "replace" Arroyo's production are in for a rude awakening, split finger or not. I would be fine with Bailey coming in as the 5 guy (and knocking Owings out of his spot) though.

bucksfan2
06-22-2009, 04:26 PM
I do not want the Reds trading Harang unless the return is great.

I'm also one who does not want the Reds trading Arroyo for salary relief.

And I most certainly feel this way when there aren't suitable replacements ready (or near ready). Any of you that think Bailey will come in and "replace" Arroyo's production are in for a rude awakening, split finger or not. I would be fine with Bailey coming in as the 5 guy (and knocking Owings out of his spot) though.

The successful teams are able to maximize the value of a player. I am not wanting the Reds to trade Arroyo, but realize that he may be the most likely player. In reality the Reds probably should have traded Arroyo a few years ago for Escobar, as rumored.

I don't think the Reds would trade Arroyo just for the sole purpose of money. If they traded him to acquirer young, cheaper, and highly thought of prospects while taking that money and investing it elsewhere that may be a good idea. The thing in the Reds favor right now is that there is no pressing need to trade Arroyo. I may be wrong, but I don't think Castellini would trade Arroyo because he is to expensive. I don't think he got himself into the baseball business to raise the white flag when the Reds still have a chance of contending.

cincrazy
06-22-2009, 04:30 PM
In this market, the Reds are unlikely to get anything of value for Arroyo or Harang. Teams just don't have the cash (supposedly) to pay these guys what they're due to make the next couple of years. The Mets would be a perfect fit in that ballpark, but are they going to give us anything of substance for either of them if they have to take the remainder of their contract? I highly doubt it.

fearofpopvol1
06-22-2009, 04:42 PM
The successful teams are able to maximize the value of a player. I am not wanting the Reds to trade Arroyo, but realize that he may be the most likely player. In reality the Reds probably should have traded Arroyo a few years ago for Escobar, as rumored.

I don't think the Reds would trade Arroyo just for the sole purpose of money. If they traded him to acquirer young, cheaper, and highly thought of prospects while taking that money and investing it elsewhere that may be a good idea. The thing in the Reds favor right now is that there is no pressing need to trade Arroyo. I may be wrong, but I don't think Castellini would trade Arroyo because he is to expensive. I don't think he got himself into the baseball business to raise the white flag when the Reds still have a chance of contending.

I'm all for getting more talent, but as most seem to think, the Reds don't appear likely to receive any real talent in return for Arroyo. So with that being said, it does appear to be more of a dump...which I don't agree with. At least not if the talent can't be replaced by pitchers in the wings.

redsfandan
06-22-2009, 04:49 PM
In this market, the Reds are unlikely to get anything of value for Arroyo or Harang. Teams just don't have the cash (supposedly) to pay these guys what they're due to make the next couple of years. The Mets would be a perfect fit in that ballpark, but are they going to give us anything of substance for either of them if they have to take the remainder of their contract? I highly doubt it.
Fwiw, 2011 is an option year for both Arroyo and Harang with buyouts of $2m for both ($2.5 for Harang if he's dealt). They could help another team this year while providing a bridge to a prospect.

HokieRed
06-22-2009, 04:52 PM
I suspect this rumor may have about as much credibility as if we started it ourselves. After all, somebody's got to have news to circulate. I've no doubt the Reds would deal Arroyo if they could get both his salary back and prospects. But in today's market I suspect every team will tell Walt that simply getting us off the hook for the salary is plenty. So then Walt looks like he's traded a valuable pitcher for no return (as many will see it.) Seems unlikely he'll do that, especially given Maloney's performance, Homer's inconsistency, Volquez's injury, Ramirez and Thompson's effectively being out of the picture, Owings' utter lack of a K rate etc. IMO, our rotation is a lot more fragile than many here seem to think it.

Brutus
06-22-2009, 05:01 PM
I suspect this rumor may have about as much credibility as if we started it ourselves. After all, somebody's got to have news to circulate. I've no doubt the Reds would deal Arroyo if they could get both his salary back and prospects. But in today's market I suspect every team will tell Walt that simply getting us off the hook for the salary is plenty. So then Walt looks like he's traded a valuable pitcher for no return (as many will see it.) Seems unlikely he'll do that, especially given Maloney's performance, Homer's inconsistency, Volquez's injury, Ramirez and Thompson's effectively being out of the picture, Owings' utter lack of a K rate etc. IMO, our rotation is a lot more fragile than many here seem to think it.

Though you could be right, I remember Buster Olney was on a show I was listening to a few weeks back on ESPN Radio and he said he believed the Reds would rather move Arroyo or Harang before they'd move Homer Bailey. It seems there is a lot of chatter all suggesting the same thing.

LoganBuck
06-22-2009, 05:38 PM
If one of them leaves I must have a major league ready SS coming back.

REDREAD
06-22-2009, 05:42 PM
Bailey is out of options. He has to fit somewhere (aka the rotation) next season or he should be traded immediately. My guess is he will end up in the former and Arroyo will be the latter.

You may be right, but I hope not.
Right now, I don't go out of my way to make room for Homer. I certainly don't dump Arroyo to give Homer a shot in the rotation.

I guess I wouldn't really consider it a tragedy if Homer gets released next spring. If it teaches the Reds a lesson and causes them not to overly aggressively promote people, it's worth it.

REDREAD
06-22-2009, 05:46 PM
A contender trading for a starting pitcher to help them and dealing a starting pitcher to do it? :confused:

Fwiw, IF something happens it probably won't happen for another 3+ weeks (since it's still only June 22nd).


I agree, it's not likely, but there's a chance we might be able to get another team's Homer in a trade.. a pitcher that has worn out his welcome in another organization, or possibly a pitcher that is undervalued or a year or two away from contributing.

dfs
06-22-2009, 05:58 PM
I firmly believe that there is ZERO shot that we trade a starting pitcher this year. ANY of them. Jocketty knows that it takes pitching to win and no matter how many here think that Arroyo (or Harang) is expendable and overpriced, HE doesn't think that. Arroyo is nearly the perfect change of pace for our current rotation. If he was a lefty, he'd be perfect. But as it is, we've got 3 hard throwers (Volkie, Cueto & Harang) and Bronson gives teams a completely different look.

That being said, he's so far from easily replacable I find it laughable that people here are even suggesting it. I love Homer, but he has not proved ANYTHING on the big stage yet. Same goes for Micah. No way in the world do either of those guys replace 200 innings per year of quality ML starting. Sure, Bronson has his ups and downs. When he's on, he's fantastic. When he's off, he's attrocious. He is what he is. A middle of the rotation starter who's durable and eats a ton of innings saving your bullpen tons of innings. Also, considering Volquez's health this year, Harang's last year....I'm hanging onto the healthy arms to be sure. His salary is NOT overly cumbersome for this club.

Lastly, we've got a rotation that is mostly young guys (gets even younger once Homer comes up). Harang and Bronson give our rotation that stabalizing veteran presence. That aspect is vastly underrated in it's effect on young pitchers.

If I'm BLOWN AWAY by a deal that includes a MLB starting pitcher coming back plus more....I'd consider it. But at this point, it would have to blow me away to deal any of our starters.

The reds do have a starting pitcher they need to trade. His name is Matt Maloney. He's got talent, but he isn't going to succeed at GAB.

Other than that excpetion, I agree with everything you wrote.

redsfandan
06-22-2009, 06:12 PM
I agree, it's not likely, but there's a chance we might be able to get another team's Homer in a trade.. a pitcher that has worn out his welcome in another organization, or possibly a pitcher that is undervalued or a year or two away from contributing.
Exactly. I don't trade Arroyo (or Harang) just to trade them or to save some money. If a team offers a decent ss prospect who could be an option for us in 2010 and another Dallas Buck I'd be tempted. (maybe Brignac & McGee)

There's no harm in listenning to offers. If someone makes an offer that's "interesting" you consider it.

Az Red
06-22-2009, 06:27 PM
If Jocketty trades Arroyo straight up for just one of those guys, I'll buy FCB a beer because Jocketty will have clearly proven he can move mountains..... :cool:

What if Arroya is traded for that "etc" guy? Still buying?:beerme:

redsfan4445
06-22-2009, 06:31 PM
i would see if the Phillies would take Arroyo and another player for OF Michael Taylor!! he is a huge young homerun hitter and would look real good in LF!!! :)

Reds1
06-22-2009, 06:43 PM
Sucks we are talking about this while we are still in it. If they do this and take money and get some offense I can live with it, but a salary dump now when you already have Volquez out to me is throwing in the towl and I don't like that. He's not replaceable. With who! Bailey - maybe! But it's a rookie that can suddenly turn it around and go 7 innings of quality start pitching. We'll see.

jojo
06-22-2009, 06:47 PM
What if Arroya is traded for that "etc" guy? Still buying?:beerme:

They can probably move Arroyo's salary and perhaps a player they can try to spin as a moral victory (aka etc). That said they already have a system full of depth.

Arroyo's salary probably limits their ability to raise their farm's ceiling.

Falls City Beer
06-22-2009, 07:24 PM
Sucks we are talking about this while we are still in it. If they do this and take money and get some offense I can live with it, but a salary dump now when you already have Volquez out to me is throwing in the towl and I don't like that. He's not replaceable. With who! Bailey - maybe! But it's a rookie that can suddenly turn it around and go 7 innings of quality start pitching. We'll see.

I don't think it sucks; I think it's being clear-eyed. For once, they really aren't that far away from contention, and clearing out replaceable payroll space is the tonic.

RedEye
06-22-2009, 07:29 PM
I don't think it sucks; I think it's being clear-eyed. For once, they really aren't that far away from contention, and clearing out replaceable payroll space is the tonic.

I absolutely agree. Harang-Volquez-Cueto is actually a pretty good front three, and Arroyo is an expensive luxury at #4. If they can get a decent, cheap, young bat--ideally at SS--in return for him at the deadline, they should do it without thinking twice.

Benihana
06-22-2009, 07:30 PM
Arroyo to Philadelphia
Heisey, Maloney, Lotzkar, Hildenbrandt and Taveras to Toronto
Jason Donald, Lou Marson and Alex Rios (and $15MM) to Cincinnati

One can dream, can't he. ;)

If Homer Bailey can't consistently perform like a #4 by this time next year, trade Alonso for pitching (or wait for Wood/Stewart to be ready.)

Reds1
06-22-2009, 08:42 PM
I don't think it sucks; I think it's being clear-eyed. For once, they really aren't that far away from contention, and clearing out replaceable payroll space is the tonic.

I couldn't disagree more with you on this one. Take away Arroyo and all the sudden you are an injury away from Malony, Bailey, and Owings. This team won't just finish under .500 it will be far under .500.

GAC
06-22-2009, 09:02 PM
I said in the pre-season that I hope Arroyo has a solid first half and increases his value for a trading deadline deal. I don't hate the guy. He gives a team 200+ innings. And that is hard to replace in today's market. But he has a history of inconsistency.

The only teams that will be interested in Arroyo would be contending teams that can afford to take on his salary. And if Walt is entertaining trading him, then that tells me they know this team ain't going anywhere this year, and they are trying to build for next year and thereafter. Because right now, our farm system does not have a replacement level pitcher for BA.

My question for Walt is.... what area(s) are you looking to address by trading Arroyo? If it's primarily a salary dump then there is very little benefit there. Walt dumped a nice chunk of change last year, and look what he brought in? If you're going to subtract pitching, then IMO, you better have a plan.

fearofpopvol1
06-22-2009, 09:03 PM
I don't think it sucks; I think it's being clear-eyed. For once, they really aren't that far away from contention, and clearing out replaceable payroll space is the tonic.

It's not being clear eyed when you don't have starting pitchers ready to step in and fill the shoes. Homer or Maloney or Ramirez or whoever will not step in and replace Arroyo's production.

Falls City Beer
06-22-2009, 09:07 PM
It's not being clear eyed when you don't have starting pitchers ready to step in and fill the shoes. Homer or Maloney or Ramirez or whoever will not step in and replace Arroyo's production.

In a season that is slowly slipping away, it doesn't really matter. Clear out payroll space and get a powerful bat in the offseason. Arroyo's production can be found in the offseason too. It really isn't that hard to find his current level of production.

The Mets are getting even better production than Arroyo from ultra-last-gasper Livan Hernandez. You don't sweat dumping a way too expensive and now-below-average arm. You don't.

Reds1
06-22-2009, 09:29 PM
In a season that is slowly slipping away, it doesn't really matter. Clear out payroll space and get a powerful bat in the offseason. Arroyo's production can be found in the offseason too. It really isn't that hard to find his current level of production.

The Mets are getting even better production than Arroyo from ultra-last-gasper Livan Hernandez. You don't sweat dumping a way too expensive and now-below-average arm. You don't.

Reds are 4 out and getting Votto back maybe Tuesday. Not sure why this means we are out of it when Walt can add a bat and health comes back. Volquez will be back and we can give it a shot. It's this maybe next year thinking I'm hoping the Reds can forget about. Let's try this year. We are a short winning streak away from being right at the top. .500 at this point when you have lost the guys we have is pretty amazing and assuming Bruce gets more consistant you just never know.

HokieRed
06-22-2009, 09:43 PM
I imagine the Phils would like to be able to use Jason Donald to look like they're trading something, but the guy's line in 250 AB's at AAA is terrible: .230/.293/.324/.617. This is as a 25 year old. No way the guy's an improvement over Cozart.

_Sir_Charles_
06-22-2009, 10:19 PM
I absolutely agree. Harang-Volquez-Cueto is actually a pretty good front three, and Arroyo is an expensive luxury at #4. If they can get a decent, cheap, young bat--ideally at SS--in return for him at the deadline, they should do it without thinking twice.

And if Volquez's health remains an issue?

Either way, that's putting one heck of a burden on a group of kids not far removed from their rookie years in Volquez, Cueto, Bailey & Owings. I like going young, but that may be overdoing it quite a bit.

mbgrayson
06-22-2009, 11:04 PM
It's not being clear eyed when you don't have starting pitchers ready to step in and fill the shoes. Homer or Maloney or Ramirez or whoever will not step in and replace Arroyo's production.

I think Homer is finally ready. After another 'W' tonight in Louisville, he has now thrown 38 and 1/3 inings and given up only two runs since developing a splitter in late May. (Justin Lehr taught him the pitch). Bats manager Rick Sweet has said he has never seen Homer so good.

My fearless prediction: Homer starts against Cleveland on Saturday and dominates.

If so, trade Arroyo now and get a decent outfielder.

Blitz Dorsey
06-22-2009, 11:05 PM
Arroyo to Philadelphia
Heisey, Maloney, Lotzkar, Hildenbrandt and Taveras to Toronto
Jason Donald and Alex Rios (and $15MM) to Cincinnati

One can dream, can't he. ;)

If Homer Bailey can't consistently perform like a #4 by this time next year, trade Alonso for pitching (or wait for Wood/Stewart to be ready.)

Why do you like Alex Rios so much? Just curious. It is because he was one of the top prospects in the game five years ago and was supposed to be good by now? Because he's certainly not good now IMO.

_Sir_Charles_
06-22-2009, 11:10 PM
Why do you like Alex Rios so much? Just curious. It is because he was one of the top prospects in the game five years ago and was supposed to be good by now? Because he's certainly not good now IMO.

I was wondering the same thing. That's a bunch of talent to give up for 2 guys who are struggling in Donald & Rios. (Rios' numbers aren't bad, but they're not heading in the right direction.)

Patrick Bateman
06-22-2009, 11:11 PM
Why do you like Alex Rios so much? Just curious. It is because he was one of the top prospects in the game five years ago and was supposed to be good by now? Because he's certainly not good now IMO.

I have bolded the important part.

It's just your opinion, and in case you forgot the giant Alex Rios thread, you made your stance perfectly clear, but because of a sheer lack of persuasive arguments from your end, there aren't a lot of people jumping onto your side of the pool.

Benihana
06-22-2009, 11:15 PM
Why do you like Alex Rios so much? Just curious. It is because he was one of the top prospects in the game five years ago and was supposed to be good by now? Because he's certainly not good now IMO.

Three consecutive years of OPS > .800 at age 28 and arguably the best defensive RF in the game. Oh, and he's quick as a whip and hits with his right hand. I'd say he fits in quite well with the Reds blueprint, especially if all you're giving up is a few guys that don't (fit in quite well with the Reds blueprint.)

I wouldn't mind Holliday either, as I'd be happy to not only have him for this year, but would gladly offer him arbitration and be happy whether he declines (two draft picks) or accepts (great RH production in LF for one more year until Alonso is ready.)

fearofpopvol1
06-22-2009, 11:19 PM
In a season that is slowly slipping away, it doesn't really matter. Clear out payroll space and get a powerful bat in the offseason. Arroyo's production can be found in the offseason too. It really isn't that hard to find his current level of production.

The Mets are getting even better production than Arroyo from ultra-last-gasper Livan Hernandez. You don't sweat dumping a way too expensive and now-below-average arm. You don't.

It's a nice thought...but it's an unlikely reality. The Reds have never historically been able to get big bats in the offseason. Why would that change now? The Reds' big bats almost always have come from within or via trades. Tying up a lot of money and overpaying for 1 bat is risky for a team like the Reds.

1 thing the Reds really have never had is good pitching and they have it now and you want to trade it away? Now, I'm fine with trading Arroyo for a good return. But for a salary dump? Count me out.

It's well documented that you don't like Arroyo and that's fine. It most certainly colors your view on the situation. But it's not one that many others share. But just remember, Volquez hasn't been healthy this year. Owings was injurred some last year as was Harang. It's not like there are lots of GOOD options ready to step in Arroyo's place and if 1 of the other guys in the rotation goes down...it's going to get real ugly real fast.

fearofpopvol1
06-22-2009, 11:23 PM
I think Homer is finally ready. After another 'W' tonight in Louisville, he has now thrown 38 and 1/3 inings and given up only two runs since developing a splitter in late May. (Justin Lehr taught him the pitch). Bats manager Rick Sweet has said he has never seen Homer so good.

My fearless prediction: Homer starts against Cleveland on Saturday and dominates.

If so, trade Arroyo now and get a decent outfielder.

I'd rather have Bailey replace Owings. I actually like Owings okay, but he's due for a correction. Owings is replacable. To ask Bailey to step in and be a #4 guy is a decently high expectation, particularly for an offensively challenged team. I'd rather have a great staff 1-5, but that's just me. With that said, if there's a good trade and Arroyo can be moved for a good return that can fill a hole, I'm certainly interested in that. If the move is dump salary, then that's a bad move IMO.

cincrazy
06-22-2009, 11:36 PM
Fwiw, 2011 is an option year for both Arroyo and Harang with buyouts of $2m for both ($2.5 for Harang if he's dealt). They could help another team this year while providing a bridge to a prospect.

Thanks for pointing that out. That slipped my mind. However, with that being said, finances are such a concern right now that I'm still not certain teams would be willing to take on their contracts and give up a decent haul in return.

SMcGavin
06-22-2009, 11:41 PM
I wouldn't have a problem with moving Arroyo due to salary constraints, but we shouldn't do it under the impression that the rotation is super deep. I think we are all set on Harang-Cueto-Volquez as the rotation's top three, here are the back end options w/ 2009 xFIP:

Arroyo 5.05
Owings 5.33
Maloney 5.07
Bailey really high, but it was only one start so not worth posting

IMO, the guy we should be worried about the most going forward is Micah Owings. You are just not going to be successful over a long period of time with a K/BB ratio like his unless you are some sort of fierce groundball type, which Owings is not. Move Arroyo and your rotation contains two out of the final three above. Owings has warning flags all over him at this point, Maloney has question marks in the eyes of many and is completely unproven, and it is hard to overstate how bad Bailey has been in his previous major league appearances. If the Reds think they are contenders this year, they really should hang on to Arroyo.

Blitz Dorsey
06-22-2009, 11:49 PM
I have bolded the important part.

It's just your opinion, and in case you forgot the giant Alex Rios thread, you made your stance perfectly clear, but because of a sheer lack of persuasive arguments from your end, there aren't a lot of people jumping onto your side of the pool.

Try again. What part of Rios' OPS in the .700's do you like exactly? Not to mention his contract.

Blitz Dorsey
06-22-2009, 11:51 PM
I was wondering the same thing. That's a bunch of talent to give up for 2 guys who are struggling in Donald & Rios. (Rios' numbers aren't bad, but they're not heading in the right direction.)

Thanks. "Austin Kearns" selectively skimmed over your post it seems.

jojo
06-23-2009, 12:03 AM
The Rios thing is a bit of a peeve... he was discussed at length very recently and then it's like the conversation never happened and is now reset to post one again.

It's perfectly reasonable to have come away from such a discussion being unconvinced by the other view, but really, to bring it up again as if the opposing view hasn't been articulated is kind of disappointing in the sense that comments framed in such a way in the past have been the launching points for any number of topics that have become tenderized.

traderumor
06-23-2009, 12:16 AM
The Rios thing is a bit of a peeve... he was discussed at length very recently and then it's like the conversation never happened and is now reset to post one again.

It's perfectly reasonable to have come away from such a discussion being unconvinced by the other view, but really, to bring it up again as if the opposing view hasn't been articulated is kind of disappointing in the sense that comments framed in such a way in the past have been the launching points for any number of topics that have become tenderized.Another option would have been to provide a link to the Rios thread. I think that is what you are trying to say here.

Blitz Dorsey
06-23-2009, 12:21 AM
The Rios thing is a bit of a peeve... he was discussed at length very recently and then it's like the conversation never happened and is now reset to post one again.

It's perfectly reasonable to have come away from such a discussion being unconvinced by the other view, but really, to bring it up again as if the opposing view hasn't been articulated is kind of disappointing in the sense that comments framed in such a way in the past have been the launching points for any number of topics that have become tenderized.

Yeah, I hear you. I didn't bring up Rios' name in this thread. I was just curious why a vocal minority of RedsZone posters seem to love (what I think is an average, overpaid player) him so much.

Boss-Hog
06-23-2009, 12:30 AM
Another option would have been to provide a link to the Rios thread. I think that is what you are trying to say here.
I agree - let's leave the Rios discussion in that (http://www.redszone.com/forums/showthread.php?t=76327&highlight=rios) thread.

Guacarock
06-23-2009, 04:19 AM
Trading Arroyo entails some risks, but if the return includes an above-average prospect now at AA or AAA who might plug our gaping hole at SS, the risks are worth bearing. Zach Cozart looks promising and Paul Janish appears serviceable, but both need more competition than we currently have high up in our minor-league pipeline.

Deals to consider? Moving Arroyo to Detroit for a package built around Brent Dlugach. The Toledo Mud Hen SS is returning to form (hitting a respectable .270 with 14 2B, 6 HR and 30 RBI) after being shut down for all of 2008 with a right labrum tear. He was once judged the best defensive infielder in the Tigers' entire minor league system, but has collected 14 errors so far in this first post-injury season. The Tigers are atop their division, but are at least 1 or 2 quasi-reliable starters away from effectively competing post-season.

Another possible destination for Arroyo -- the Yankees, if one of their current starters should falter or fall victim to injury. They certainly have the payroll flex to acquire Arroyo, and would savor the idea of going into battle with a former Red Sox who might have personal reasons for stepping up his game anytime NY traveled to Beantown or faced their dreaded adversaries at home.

Some Zoners have advocated us targeting Yankees' AAA CF prospect Austin Jackson, and I can appreciate the rationale for that, but my preference would be to designate AA SS Eduardo Nunez as the linchpin for any deal with the Pinstripers. Nunez is hitting .317 with 9 2B, 4 HR, 27 RBI and 9 SB at Trenton.

There's no particular finesse to my thinking other than this: SS looms as a gaping hole for the Reds in 2009 and 2010, while CF looks to be a hole, but a less cavernous one. If we're going to endure the risks involved in moving Arroyo when we're only four games back, then it ought to be to fill a gaping hole -- one that should have rectified last winter, but wasn't.

We are making measureable progress with the shift toward becoming a more pitching and defense-oriented team as opposed to an exclusively offense-driven outfit. If you ask me, filling a gaping hole at SS would not represent a repudiation of that trend, especially if the cost amounted to sacrificing a well-paid 4th starter.

So what if our rotation stays in flux for the remainder of this season, and we have to trot out Bailey, Maloney, Lehr or Masset for revolving auditions to determine who might best replace Arroyo's missing innings? So long as we don't have a real SS for this season or next, we're probably not going to be bona fide contenders anyway -- just another .500 team stoking fans' eternal pipedreams without delivering any rings -- golden, silver, brass or otherwise.

In other words, as important as pitching can be, we're making a serious mistake if we overvalue our 4th starter higher than our primero uno day-in and day-out defensive position in the field. We thought we could punt with Gonzalez this season, but that notion has sunk like a lead balloon, and now we need to bite the bullet and do what it takes to advance to where we can actually contend. Food for thought or the grist mill.

Ron Madden
06-23-2009, 04:35 AM
Which just happens to be two of the teams who's youngsters best fit the most pressing needs for the Reds (Elvis Andrus, Max Ramirez, Taylor Teagarden, Jason Donald, Michael Taylor, Lou Marson, etc.)


I'd deal Arroyo for Andrus in a heartbeat.

Bronson eats up some innings but we need a SS.

Topcat
06-23-2009, 07:21 AM
I view this differently, Yes i do favor dealing Bronson while his skill set can bring a decent return. But I have to say in no freakin way would I Trade Bronson for 1 GD prospect, Andrus for Bronson ? You have to be kidding? Bronson is a solid 14-16 win guy on most top 12 teams in MLB and to cast him aside for a hope and a prayer is a move only a fool would make. Yes for "now" the economics of the game have been affected by the recession.

If the Red's send that message out on the trade market then as god as my witness I may never see another WS champion Reds team.

schroomytunes
06-23-2009, 08:48 AM
Well if they are shopping Arroyo then now is the best time, Bailey deserves another callup with the way he's been throwing. I believe that we must obtain the very best prospects we can land regardless of what position they play. The better prospects we get will allow us solid bargining pieces to land the bigger fish down the road to fill our holes.

PuffyPig
06-23-2009, 08:59 AM
I But I have to say in no freakin way would I Trade Bronson for 1 GD prspect, Andrus for Bronson ? You have to be kidding? Bronson is a solid 14-16 win guy on most top 12 teams in MLB and to cast him aside for a hope and a prayer is a move only a fool would make. Yes for "now" the economics of the game have been affected by the recession.

If the Red's send that message out on the trade market then as god as my witness I may never see another WS champion Reds team.

If you don't trade Arroyo for Andrus, pull him off the market.

Andrus is not a propsect, he's the Ranger's starting SS, and is largely credited with turning the Rangers from one of the major's worst DER teams to on of the major's best.

He's exactly the type of SS we want.

And there 's zero chance the Rangers will trade him, much less for Arroyo.

bucksfan2
06-23-2009, 09:42 AM
Last season the Twins traded Santana, a full year before he needed to be traded, and in a season in which they were playoff contenders. They traded the best pitcher in baseball before the season started. Oakland does it quite a bit trading their young players when the maximize their value. IIRC Blanton and Haren were both traded before their final year of the contract.

Trading a pitcher of Arroyo's ilk could be dangerous. The issue is the Reds have players to replace him. IMO Bailey could go somewhere in the .500 range as a pitcher in the second half of the season. He won't be able to pitch the number of innings that Arroyo would have, but his record could be similar. If Bailey doesn't cut it they have options in Maloney, Ramirez, Wood, Steward, and Leake when he signs. You have to give up something to get something. The Reds are also deep at the pitcher position and have some serious flaws elsewhere. Trading Arroyo may be the best way to help the team without mortgaging the future.

As for positions to target I would want a corner IF/OF, SS, and a pitching prospect. Going after a CF would be a bad thing for the Reds. You aren't going to get a much better prospect than either Stubbs or Heisey. The only way I would want a CF is if his bat could translate to LF.

nate
06-23-2009, 09:46 AM
I view this differently, Yes i do favor dealing Bronson while his skill set can bring a decent return. But I have to say in no freakin way would I Trade Bronson for 1 GD prospect, Andrus for Bronson ? You have to be kidding? Bronson is a solid 14-16 win guy on most top 12 teams in MLB and to cast him aside for a hope and a prayer is a move only a fool would make. Yes for "now" the economics of the game have been affected by the recession.

If the Red's send that message out on the trade market then as god as my witness I may never see another WS champion Reds team.

Walt pulling off that trade would be parade-worthy, IMO.

REDREAD
06-23-2009, 09:59 AM
Exactly. I don't trade Arroyo (or Harang) just to trade them or to save some money. If a team offers a decent ss prospect who could be an option for us in 2010 and another Dallas Buck I'd be tempted. (maybe Brignac & McGee)

There's no harm in listenning to offers. If someone makes an offer that's "interesting" you consider it.

That's my thought too. I'm willing to trade anyone on the Reds roster for the right deal.

I know the Reds' finances are limiited, but trading Arroyo for pure salary relief does not make sense to me. I realize he's up and down. I realize that he's not exactly a bargain. However, he has a lot of value to this club. Replacing him with Homer, Maloney or Martinez probably costs the team at least 5-10 wins a year, because those kids are that bad. I will always remember that one year when the Reds tried to patch a hole in the rotation with kids. Rob Bell, Reith, and Reyes combined for something like 2-20.. Homer may not be that bad, but putting an unprepared kid in the rotation with no back up can torpedo a season.

bucksfan2
06-23-2009, 10:07 AM
That's my thought too. I'm willing to trade anyone on the Reds roster for the right deal.

I know the Reds' finances are limiited, but trading Arroyo for pure salary relief does not make sense to me. I realize he's up and down. I realize that he's not exactly a bargain. However, he has a lot of value to this club. Replacing him with Homer, Maloney or Martinez probably costs the team at least 5-10 wins a year, because those kids are that bad. I will always remember that one year when the Reds tried to patch a hole in the rotation with kids. Rob Bell, Reith, and Reyes combined for something like 2-20.. Homer may not be that bad, but putting an unprepared kid in the rotation with no back up can torpedo a season.

The Reds were pretty successful last season patching a hole with young guns. I believe they were named Volquez and Cueto and have pitched well in Reds uniforms.

Replacing Arroyo with Bailey may cost this team a win or two this season, or it may actually help the team. If Bailey puts it together he has a much higher ceiling than Arroyo has. IIRC neither Bell, Reith, or Reyes were that highly thought of prospects, the Reds just did it on the cheap.

osuceltic
06-23-2009, 10:23 AM
I think in all my years watching the Reds, Bronson Arroyo may be the most underappreciated player among normally astute fans. Actually, I think what's underappreciated is the rarity and value of a guy who will give you 200 IP, an ERA under 4.50 and quality starts two out of every three times he takes the mound. Season after season. Everyone else gets nicked up or worn down, spends time on the DL, skips starts ... not Arroyo. He's an absolute anchor.

I don't trade him for anything less than a huge return.

REDREAD
06-23-2009, 10:27 AM
The Reds were pretty successful last season patching a hole with young guns. I believe they were named Volquez and Cueto and have pitched well in Reds uniforms.

Replacing Arroyo with Bailey may cost this team a win or two this season, or it may actually help the team. If Bailey puts it together he has a much higher ceiling than Arroyo has. IIRC neither Bell, Reith, or Reyes were that highly thought of prospects, the Reds just did it on the cheap.

I guess I disagree. At the time, people saw how great Reyes was in the pen and were clamoring to get him in the rotation.

Rob Bell was also highly thought of.

In fact, I'd argue that the Reyes and Bell were viewed much more promising as starters at the time than Homer is viewed right now. There's no question Bell/Reyes were more highly thought of than Malony.

Bell was hyped as a future 20 game winner when Bowden picked him up, and many people bought into it. On the Braves' messages boards, there was tons of teeth gnashing that the Braves gave up Belll.

I agree that Reith was veiwed more as a potential back of the rotation arm, and was probably viewed as a step below Homer, but people were in love with Reyes and Bell as potential starters.

If Homer was on the same level of Volquez or Ceuto, then trading Volquez becomes a lot easier. New pitch or not, Homer is still a crapshoot IMO.
Personally, I'd prefer to see Homer log as many innings as possible at AAA this year since it's his last option year. Let him work all the kinks out. Let him dominate down there. Get him prepared to be on the roster in 2010, because we have no choice then. I don't want to be forced to keep Homer in the rotation this year due to an Arroyo trade, unless Arroyo gets us a very nice return.. that's my whole point.. Don't trade Arroyo purely for salary relief. Get a player or two with a very high probablility of helping the team long term.

Scrap Irony
06-23-2009, 10:33 AM
There is absolutely no way Andrus gets dealt. Can we stop talking about this as if it were a possibility?

No chance. None.

Wood is a distinct possibility and Arroyo may be pitch well is Anaheim/ LA. Good park for him, IMO. A likely deal would be:

Arroyo
Taveras

for

Gary Matthews, Jr.
Brandon Wood
cash

Dusty grabs a veteran CF who can help Stubbs learn CF and PH off the bench, plus the starting SS they need (who provides some serious pop from the lower portion of the batting order).

The Angels get a starter they need and a back-up CF to balance out the deal. (Taveras is only chaff and should be viewed as a 25th man only.)

HokieRed
06-23-2009, 10:34 AM
I think in all my years watching the Reds, Bronson Arroyo may be the most underappreciated player among normally astute fans. Actually, I think what's underappreciated is the rarity and value of a guy who will give you 200 IP, an ERA under 4.50 and quality starts two out of every three times he takes the mound. Season after season. Everyone else gets nicked up or worn down, spends time on the DL, skips starts ... not Arroyo. He's an absolute anchor.

I don't trade him for anything less than a huge return.

Agreed. I want to see a rotation in 2010 of Cueto, Harang, Arroyo, Bailey, and Volquez. With a pen of Cordero, Masset, Owings, Roenicke, Rhodes, Burton, and Herrera or Viola. That team, with even modest improvement in the offense, will be the favorite in the NL Central. Now is the time to be just a little more patient. I know it's been a long time coming but it is coming and now is not the time to trade a valuable part of the rotation for, at best, salary relief and a marginal upgrade at one of our positions of need.

lollipopcurve
06-23-2009, 10:46 AM
Arroyo
Taveras

for

Gary Matthews, Jr.
Brandon Wood
cash

Dusty grabs a veteran CF who can help Stubbs learn CF and PH off the bench, plus the starting SS they need (who provides some serious pop from the lower portion of the batting order).

The Angels get a starter they need and a back-up CF to balance out the deal. (Taveras is only chaff and should be viewed as a 25th man only.)

Very interesting proposition. The general framework looks perfect to me -- money is workably close and the organizations meet what seem to be 2 compelling needs -- LA gets a reliable starter and the Reds start to clean up the OF mess, adding a little offense in the meantime. It's unclear how much the Angels value Wood -- it might be that they insist on keeping him and moving someone like M.Izturis (someone closer in talent/upside to Taveras). The Reds might have a better shot at Wood if they dealt Harang instead.

All in all, I'd think the two teams would have a lot to talk about with a proposal like this in the table.

westofyou
06-23-2009, 10:50 AM
I think in all my years watching the Reds, Bronson Arroyo may be the most underappreciated player among normally astute fans. Actually, I think what's underappreciated is the rarity and value of a guy who will give you 200 IP, an ERA under 4.50 and quality starts two out of every three times he takes the mound. Season after season. Everyone else gets nicked up or worn down, spends time on the DL, skips starts ... not Arroyo. He's an absolute anchor.

I don't trade him for anything less than a huge return.

An anchor that sometimes gets stuck in the muck for a time too.

He's the RH Tom Browning, has games that are great and then gets his arse smashed the next game. His 1st year as a Red was his best and he'll probably struggle to be 1/2 that successful, he's getting expensive, the Branch Rickey move is to cash in the chips sooner than later, in this case Arroyo is a chip.

BRM
06-23-2009, 10:54 AM
How popular will that deal be when Dusty makes Matthews, Jr. the regular centerfielder and leadoff hitter? As bad as his numbers are this year, they would actually be an upgrade over Willy's.

lollipopcurve
06-23-2009, 11:09 AM
How popular will that deal be when Dusty makes Matthews, Jr. the regular centerfielder and leadoff hitter? As bad as his numbers are this year, they would actually be an upgrade over Willy's.

Yeah, something to that. I just looked at Matthews' numbers, and it makes me revise my opinion of any deal based on a $$$ swap of his and Arroyo's contracts. I think it would mean that the Reds could demand a lot more in addition to Matthews -- as in a Brandon Wood or Erik Aybar, perhaps. I thought Matthews had turned his offense around some -- guess not.

jojo
06-23-2009, 01:42 PM
Very interesting proposition. The general framework looks perfect to me -- money is workably close and the organizations meet what seem to be 2 compelling needs -- LA gets a reliable starter and the Reds start to clean up the OF mess, adding a little offense in the meantime. It's unclear how much the Angels value Wood -- it might be that they insist on keeping him and moving someone like M.Izturis (someone closer in talent/upside to Taveras). The Reds might have a better shot at Wood if they dealt Harang instead.

All in all, I'd think the two teams would have a lot to talk about with a proposal like this in the table.

GM Jr is a huge $27M outfield mess (prorated for '09) that can't hit or field.

lollipopcurve
06-23-2009, 03:44 PM
GM Jr is a huge $27M outfield mess (prorated for '09) that can't hit or field.

Yeah, yeah -- revised my point of view, as the post above yours notes.

jojo
06-23-2009, 04:40 PM
Yeah, yeah -- revised my point of view, as the post above yours notes.

I wasn't trying to pick on your post by piling on....it's a hazard of commenting in a thread that has multiple new posts before reading them all.... if anything, it reflects poorly on my comment.

mth123
06-23-2009, 09:15 PM
I think in all my years watching the Reds, Bronson Arroyo may be the most underappreciated player among normally astute fans. Actually, I think what's underappreciated is the rarity and value of a guy who will give you 200 IP, an ERA under 4.50 and quality starts two out of every three times he takes the mound. Season after season. Everyone else gets nicked up or worn down, spends time on the DL, skips starts ... not Arroyo. He's an absolute anchor.

I don't trade him for anything less than a huge return.

Completely agree. I think turning the rotation over to all kids is a way to destroy the future not usher it in. Kid starters need to be babied. You can't baby them all so guys like Harang and Arroyo are very necessary not only to stay competitive, but to keep these guys developing. You can't really stop injuries from creeping in, but you sure as heck don't need to invite them by filling the rotation with guys less than 25 who now have to be ridden a little hard to get through the season. Keep Arroyo and Harang and let them shoulder that burden while the kids grow up. If you must deal an arm, I'd deal Owings and throw in Maloney.

And Arroyo pitches much better than his numbers suggest. He gives his team a good chance to win most times he's out there. A few really bad clunkers may make the rate stats look poor, but we aren't playing fantasy baseball. Its about winning games and over a season Arroyo keeps the team in position to win a large percentage of the time. I'm guessing he won't be replaced so easily.

OnBaseMachine
06-23-2009, 09:38 PM
Jocketty on Arroyo item
Posted by JohnFay at 6/23/2009 7:59 PM EDT on Cincinnati.com

I finally got a chance to ask Walt Jocketty about the item in the Boston Globe.

An item in the Globe on Sunday said: One of the hot rumors among the scouting community is that the Reds are dangling one of their veteran pitchers (Arroyo) in an effort to get younger and reduce payroll.

I havent talked to anyone about Bronson, Jocketty said.

Jocketty said hes under no mandate to trim payroll.

As the trade the deadline gets closer teams are usually classified as buyers or sellers.

Id say right now were buyers, he said. Were looking for a hitter. If we did something, it would probably be to bring in a hitter. Getting Joey (Votto) back is going to help.

http://news.cincinnati.com/apps/pbcs.dll/section?category=blog07&plckController=Blog&plckScript=blogScript&plckElementId=blogDest&plckBlogPage=BlogViewPost&plckPostId=Blog%3ae57bcc87-152a-4f72-96fb-cc08b1f396efPost%3ad1749c76-2595-44c9-8714-90a60b96871f&sid=sitelife.cincinnati.com

RedEye
06-23-2009, 09:40 PM
Jocketty on Arroyo item
Posted by JohnFay at 6/23/2009 7:59 PM EDT on Cincinnati.com

I finally got a chance to ask Walt Jocketty about the item in the Boston Globe.

An item in the Globe on Sunday said: One of the hot rumors among the scouting community is that the Reds are dangling one of their veteran pitchers (Arroyo) in an effort to get younger and reduce payroll.

I havent talked to anyone about Bronson, Jocketty said.

Jocketty said hes under no mandate to trim payroll.

As the trade the deadline gets closer teams are usually classified as buyers or sellers.

Id say right now were buyers, he said. Were looking for a hitter. If we did something, it would probably be to bring in a hitter. Getting Joey (Votto) back is going to help.

http://news.cincinnati.com/apps/pbcs.dll/section?category=blog07&plckController=Blog&plckScript=blogScript&plckElementId=blogDest&plckBlogPage=BlogViewPost&plckPostId=Blog%3ae57bcc87-152a-4f72-96fb-cc08b1f396efPost%3ad1749c76-2595-44c9-8714-90a60b96871f&sid=sitelife.cincinnati.com

Doesn't he have to say that?

Benihana
06-23-2009, 09:48 PM
Two takes:
1. He didn't say he hasn't talked to anyone about Harang.
2. They're still looking to bring in a bat? Matt Holliday or Alex Rios please.

fearofpopvol1
06-23-2009, 09:57 PM
After watching Owings tonight...are people still in a huge hurry to move Arroyo?

Falls City Beer
06-23-2009, 09:59 PM
After watching Owings tonight...are people still in a huge hurry to move Arroyo?

Seriously, there's no difference between them--except that Arroyo costs a small mint.

fearofpopvol1
06-23-2009, 10:04 PM
Seriously, there's no difference between them--except that Arroyo costs a small mint.

Yeah, Owings has an out pitch and gets Ks and has pitched 200+ innings for several years with the Reds (with a respectable ERA). Ok.

Blitz Dorsey
06-23-2009, 10:10 PM
Owings is one of those guys where you get tired just watching him pitch. The guy is not pitch efficient and is probably best suited for the bullpen. That said, he has not done a bad job at all in the No. 5 role this year. I still think he would be a better hitter than pitcher if he concentrated on it, but he couldn't play anywhere in the field. I think the best thing for the Reds would be to have Bailey as the No. 5 and Owings out of the pen (and as one of the top pinch hitters on the team).

Blitz Dorsey
06-23-2009, 10:11 PM
Yeah, Owings has an out pitch and gets Ks and has pitched 200+ innings for several years with the Reds (with a respectable ERA). Ok.

I agree. For all the Bronson haters, he's definitely a better pitcher than Micah Owings. Then again, Bronson also gets paid a ton more than Owings.

SMcGavin
06-23-2009, 10:19 PM
Seriously, there's no difference between them--except that Arroyo costs a small mint.

This is not even close to being accurate.

Will M
06-23-2009, 10:22 PM
After watching Owings tonight...are people still in a huge hurry to move Arroyo?

yes.

-the Reds are not going to the playoffs this year

- several teams need pitching. not necessarilly an ace. just halfway decent pitchers

- due to injuries to several pitchers ( Bedard, Peavy) Arroyo could be one of the best if not THE best pitcher available. sell high.

Falls City Beer
06-23-2009, 10:24 PM
This is not even close to being accurate.

Compare their seasons this year. Forget previous years; they're pretty much irrelevant.

OnBaseMachine
06-23-2009, 10:30 PM
Arroyo is so underrated, IMO.

In his 3 1/2 seasons with the Reds, Arroyo has thrown 740.1 innings with an ERA+ of 110. He's thrown at least 200+ innings in all three full seasons and is on pace for 212 IP this year. I hated the Arroyo trade when it first went down but it turned out to be a great trade. It's one of the better trades the Reds have made in a while.

Falls City Beer
06-23-2009, 10:30 PM
nm

SMcGavin
06-23-2009, 10:30 PM
yes.

-the Reds are not going to the playoffs this year

- several teams need pitching. not necessarilly an ace. just halfway decent pitchers

- due to injuries to several pitchers ( Bedard, Peavy) Arroyo could be one of the best if not THE best pitcher available. sell high.

Yeah. If you want to deal Arroyo, these are the reasons to do it. You have to do it knowing there is going to be a short term hit.

This probably deserves its own thread, but even if Arroyo is dealt I'm not sure Owings would be one of the five best starters left in the Reds organization. He is pretty bad.

PuffyPig
06-23-2009, 10:32 PM
nm

Finally a post I can agree with.

fearofpopvol1
06-23-2009, 10:34 PM
yes.

-the Reds are not going to the playoffs this year

- several teams need pitching. not necessarilly an ace. just halfway decent pitchers

- due to injuries to several pitchers ( Bedard, Peavy) Arroyo could be one of the best if not THE best pitcher available. sell high.

Sure...IF the Reds can get value back to fill a different hole. Then I am fine with it. But some (FCB included) have argued that a salary dump of Arroyo is wise and I don't agree with that at all.

fearofpopvol1
06-23-2009, 10:37 PM
Compare their seasons this year. Forget previous years; they're pretty much irrelevant.

You can't discount the past. How else do you project the future? We're talking about 1/3 of a season here.

Arroyo has had success ever since he became a Red. He's off to a rough start this year, but the season is 1/3 of the way over. His peripherals are heaps better than Owings'. And it's really not even close.

SMcGavin
06-23-2009, 10:39 PM
Compare their seasons this year. Forget previous years; they're pretty much irrelevant.

Previous seasons are far from irrelevant, both from a performance standpoint and a durability standpoint.

But for the sake of argument let's say they are, Arroyo v. Owings 2009:

Arroyo: 4.9 K/9, 3.2 BB/9, 44% GB%, 5.04 xFIP
Owings: 5.3 K/9, 4.4 BB/9, 40% GB%, 5.32 xFIP (xFIP is before tonight, which will certainly raise it even more)

For a guy who continually talks up the value of control from a pitcher, you sure seem to overlook Owings racking up the walks. Couple that with his inability to strike guys out and the Reds are sitting on a time bomb of suck.

Falls City Beer
06-23-2009, 10:49 PM
Previous seasons are far from irrelevant, both from a performance standpoint and a durability standpoint.

But for the sake of argument let's say they are, Arroyo v. Owings 2009:

Arroyo: 4.9 K/9, 3.2 BB/9, 44% GB%, 5.04 xFIP
Owings: 5.3 K/9, 4.4 BB/9, 40% GB%, 5.32 xFIP (xFIP is before tonight, which will certainly raise it even more)

For a guy who continually talks up the value of control from a pitcher, you sure seem to overlook Owings racking up the walks. Couple that with his inability to strike guys out and the Reds are sitting on a time bomb of suck.

Never said I liked Owings. They're similar kinds of ick. Just that Owings is cheap and not ancient.

Ltlabner
06-23-2009, 10:55 PM
Never said I liked Owings. They're similar kinds of ick. Just that Owings is cheap and not ancient.

Yet, Tallent, who you longed for in the game thread, is all of 7 months younger than Bronson.

Both were born in 1977 so apparently 32 is the new "ancient".

Falls City Beer
06-23-2009, 10:58 PM
Yet, Tallent, who you longed for in the game thread, is all of 7 months younger than Bronson.

Both were born in 1977 so apparently 32 is the new "ancient".

Doesn't matter if it's Tallet, just so the team is smart about filling out the back end of their rotation and not limiting themselves with moves that lock up mediocre performers at 10 + million a season.

SMcGavin
06-23-2009, 10:59 PM
Never said I liked Owings. They're similar kinds of ick. Just that Owings is cheap and not ancient.

Owings is more Josh Fogg than he is Arroyo.

Chip R
06-23-2009, 11:01 PM
This probably deserves its own thread, but even if Arroyo is dealt I'm not sure Owings would be one of the five best starters left in the Reds organization. He is pretty bad.


You'd rather have Homer pitching in the 5th spot? Maloney? Ramirez?

5th starters are 5th starters for a reason.

Falls City Beer
06-23-2009, 11:02 PM
Owings is more Josh Fogg than he is Arroyo.

That's a pretty serious overstatement. At least if you're comparing 2008 Fogg to 2009 Owings.

fearofpopvol1
06-23-2009, 11:02 PM
Doesn't matter if it's Tallet, just so the team is smart about filling out the back end of their rotation and not allowing themselves flexibility with moves that lock up mediocre performers at 10 + million a season.

Except that Arroyo has been better than mediocre for his contract thus far. Why you continue to ignore the numbers, I'm just not sure.

fearofpopvol1
06-23-2009, 11:04 PM
You'd rather have Homer pitching in the 5th spot? Maloney? Ramirez?

5th starters are 5th starters for a reason.

I'd think with Bailey's recent domination in AAA (something he has never previously done--at least to this extent)...Owings is on a short leash. I'd be totally fine with Bailey taking over for Owings.

Falls City Beer
06-23-2009, 11:04 PM
Except that Arroyo has been better than mediocre for his contract thus far. Why you continue to ignore the numbers, I'm just not sure.

But he hasn't been this season, and he's not getting younger.

fearofpopvol1
06-23-2009, 11:07 PM
But he hasn't been this season, and he's not getting younger.

They do call it a "season" for a reason. A season is not 50-something games. It's 162. If the numbers look this way at the end of the year, then point taken. But the season isn't up yet. It's not like Arroyo is over the hill either. He's probably not going to be getting any better...but if he puts up his career averages...that's very valuable to the Reds in the #4 spot.

SMcGavin
06-23-2009, 11:07 PM
You'd rather have Homer pitching in the 5th spot? Maloney? Ramirez?

5th starters are 5th starters for a reason.

Yeah, I think Maloney is a better pitcher than Owings. Though the sample is only three starts, his peripherals from this year agree with that assessment. Bailey I am not sure, would have to see him at the MLB level with his new splitter to find out.

Benihana
06-23-2009, 11:08 PM
Never said I liked Owings. They're similar kinds of ick. Just that Owings is cheap and not ancient.

32 is ancient?

I'm actually in favor of trading Arroyo, but I think your arguments here are a little off-base.

Here's what I would do:
1. Promote Bailey and start him on Saturday vs. Cleveland
2. Give Bailey the next month to start every five days. That should give him at least five starts to see where he lies at the ML level. Like I said in another thread, he doesn't need to pitch as well as he has in the last month at AAA, but he cannot afford to pitch as poorly as he has in the last two years in the bigs. He has one month before the trade deadline and Volquez comes back- two events that will force the Reds to make a decision on their rotation.

If Homer significantly outperforms Owings and the Reds are <5 games back
3. Keep Arroyo and demote Owings to the bullpen.
4. Trade a couple guys like Heisey, Francisco, and Sutton for a bat.

If Homer significantly outperforms Owings or is just ok but the Reds are >5 games back
3. Trade Arroyo, with the lack of available pitching in the current market his value will likely never be higher. Plus, with Homer pitching very well the Reds can afford to lose Arroyo (and his salary.)

If Homer bombs, he needs a change of scenery. If the Reds are <5 games back
3. Trade him for a rental bat. Maybe at that point you can revisit the Jermaine Dye deal, as the White Sox will most likely be sellers.

If Homer bombs, he needs a change of scenery. If the Reds are >5 games back
3. Trade Homer for a similar prospect in need of a change of scenery- be it a guy like Brandon Wood, Phil Hughes, Reid Brignac, etc.

Chip R
06-23-2009, 11:20 PM
I'd think with Bailey's recent domination in AAA (something he has never previously done--at least to this extent)...Owings is on a short leash. I'd be totally fine with Bailey taking over for Owings.


As I said, there's a big gulf between AAA and MLB. I'd like to see Homer dominate for more than a couple of games before he's considered for the rotation again. He had about 15 Ks in a game a few days before the last time he was called up and it didn't really translate. He's got the same problem as Owings in that he can't throw strikes on a consistent basis. Maloney may be better than Owings but probably not that much better.

Not every starter is going to post numbers like Cueto. It'd be nice if your 5th guy was as good ad your ace but it's unrealistic.

Ltlabner
06-23-2009, 11:21 PM
Why you continue to ignore the numbers, I'm just not sure.

Because FCB hasn't met a Reds pitcher he likes, or a Cardinals pitcher he can hate. ;)

Arroyo has had some stinker games that are killing his numbers right now. No doubt about that. FCB's right that *at this point in time* Bronson's not setting the world on fire overall just looking at the numbers. If at the end of the year he's got the same numbers, so be it. He's not been worth his money.

But to suddenly start banging the drum that Bronson is useless chaff is intellectually lazy. It's always easy to point out that a player isn't worth his contact after he struggles.

fearofpopvol1
06-23-2009, 11:34 PM
As I said, there's a big gulf between AAA and MLB. I'd like to see Homer dominate for more than a couple of games before he's considered for the rotation again. He had about 15 Ks in a game a few days before the last time he was called up and it didn't really translate. He's got the same problem as Owings in that he can't throw strikes on a consistent basis. Maloney may be better than Owings but probably not that much better.

Not every starter is going to post numbers like Cueto. It'd be nice if your 5th guy was as good ad your ace but it's unrealistic.

Eh...I mean, we're talking about more than 1 start. We're talking about 5 lights out starts now in a row. The stats don't lie.


Date OPP W L ERA SV IP H ER BB SO
Jun 02 @PAW 1 0 0.00 0 8.0 4 0 2 8
Jun 07 LHV 1 0 0.00 0 6.2 7 0 0 6
Jun 12 @COL 0 0 1.04 0 8.2 6 1 2 9
Jun 17 NOR 1 0 0.00 0 8.0 7 0 1 7
Jun 22 GWN 1 0 1.29 0 7.0 6 1 2 8
Total n/a 4 0 0.47 0 38.1 30 2 7 38

And the start you spoke of above is prior to him adding the split finger pitcher...which has worked wonders.

I wouldn't mind having Bailey make 1 or 2 more starts down there. But I think after the break, it's time to bring him up again and see what he can do.

I really don't think there's any reason to believe (at this point) that Homer can't pitch as well as (if not better than) Owings.

Ron Madden
06-24-2009, 03:43 AM
I view this differently, Yes i do favor dealing Bronson while his skill set can bring a decent return. But I have to say in no freakin way would I Trade Bronson for 1 GD prospect, Andrus for Bronson ? You have to be kidding? Bronson is a solid 14-16 win guy on most top 12 teams in MLB and to cast him aside for a hope and a prayer is a move only a fool would make. Yes for "now" the economics of the game have been affected by the recession.

If the Red's send that message out on the trade market then as god as my witness I may never see another WS champion Reds team.


We have a difference of opinion here, no need to call each other a fool.

If that deal was possible (Arroyo for Andrus) I'd do it right now.

I could be making a mistake but I believe it would be a chance well worth taking.

see ya later.

bucksfan2
06-24-2009, 09:46 AM
Arroyo is so underrated, IMO.

In his 3 1/2 seasons with the Reds, Arroyo has thrown 740.1 innings with an ERA+ of 110. He's thrown at least 200+ innings in all three full seasons and is on pace for 212 IP this year. I hated the Arroyo trade when it first went down but it turned out to be a great trade. It's one of the better trades the Reds have made in a while.

I agree with you OBM. I think Arroyo is underrated to the fans, but I don't think he is underrated in the baseball community. He may have the most value out of any player the Reds can afford to trade. IMO he has more value than Harang largely in part to Harang's disastrous season last year.

A few years ago there were rumors floating around that the Reds could have traded Arroyo for Yunel Escobar plus another player. The Reds balked at that trade and kept Arroyo. Would you rather have Arroyo and Gonzales/Hariston at SS or Bailey and Escobar?

Bailey has done what everyone has wanted him to do, dominate AAA ball. Over the past 5 starts he has been down right silly. He has earned a chance, an extended chance to pitch in the majors. Right now the Reds have room for him with Volquez's injury. When Volquez returns they may have 6 pitchers for 5 spots. You can demote Owings to the pen, but if you can get a return for Arroyo then you do so. While Arroyo is a valuable pitcher to the Reds, he would become even more valuable to a pitching starved team. You have to give up something to get something. If you want a MLB caliber SS a combination of Owings + isn't going to get you that.

redsfandan
06-24-2009, 10:15 AM
You can't discount the past. How else do you project the future? We're talking about 1/3 of a season here.
The same could be said about Owings. He had a pretty solid rookie season in '07 and his k/9, bb/9, and fip were all better in both '07 and '08 than what he's done in 1/3 of '09. Was that a fluke? Is he still not 100%? Did the DBacks just know how to handle him better? I don't know what the answer is but it seems a little presumptuous to say that he can't still be a decent back of the rotation starter based on only 1/3 of a season. As bad as his '09 has been he's still allowed 2 runs or less in 7 of his 13 starts.

This season his k/bb is currently 1.21. If he can get it back up to around 2.12 (his ratio in '07/'08) and last 6+ ip instead of 5+ ip then he'd be ok. Not an ace cuz he'll never be one but it's just unrealistic, Imo, to expect an ace, or anything close, in the 5th spot anyway. If he can make those improvements he'll be better than what most teams have in the 5th spot and what we've had there in the past as well. By the way, if he had lasted 6+ ip in all of those 7 good starts then you're talking 7 quality starts and 6 starts that stink. Kinda Arroyo-lite for a fraction of a fraction of the cost.

Also, despite what Walt says I don't think we'll know for sure if we're buyers or sellers until this time next month. Imo, if we do become sellers the most marketable players WILL be Arroyo and Harang and IF Bailey shows that the improvement is real then we can part with ONE of the two when a team will be most desperate: at the deadline and for the right price.


Here's what I would do:
1. Promote Bailey and start him on Saturday vs. Cleveland
2. Give Bailey the next month to start every five days. That should give him at least five starts to see where he lies at the ML level. Like I said in another thread, he doesn't need to pitch as well as he has in the last month at AAA, but he cannot afford to pitch as poorly as he has in the last two years in the bigs. He has one month before the trade deadline and Volquez comes back- two events that will force the Reds to make a decision on their rotation.

If Homer significantly outperforms Owings and the Reds are <5 games back
3. Keep Arroyo and demote Owings to the bullpen.
4. Trade a couple guys like Heisey, Francisco, and Sutton for a bat.

If Homer significantly outperforms Owings or is just ok but the Reds are >5 games back
3. Trade Arroyo, with the lack of available pitching in the current market his value will likely never be higher. Plus, with Homer pitching very well the Reds can afford to lose Arroyo (and his salary.)

If Homer bombs, he needs a change of scenery. If the Reds are <5 games back
3. Trade him for a rental bat. Maybe at that point you can revisit the Jermaine Dye deal, as the White Sox will most likely be sellers.

If Homer bombs, he needs a change of scenery. If the Reds are >5 games back
3. Trade Homer for a similar prospect in need of a change of scenery- be it a guy like Brandon Wood, Phil Hughes, Reid Brignac, etc.
Seems pretty reasonable to me.

fearofpopvol1
06-24-2009, 12:38 PM
The same could be said about Owings. He had a pretty solid rookie season in '07 and his k/9, bb/9, and fip were all better in both '07 and '08 than what he's done in 1/3 of '09. Was that a fluke? Is he still not 100%? Did the DBacks just know how to handle him better? I don't know what the answer is but it seems a little presumptuous to say that he can't still be a decent back of the rotation starter based on only 1/3 of a season. As bad as his '09 has been he's still allowed 2 runs or less in 7 of his 13 starts.

This season his k/bb is currently 1.21. If he can get it back up to around 2.12 (his ratio in '07/'08) and last 6+ ip instead of 5+ ip then he'd be ok. Not an ace cuz he'll never be one but it's just unrealistic, Imo, to expect an ace, or anything close, in the 5th spot anyway. If he can make those improvements he'll be better than what most teams have in the 5th spot and what we've had there in the past as well. By the way, if he had lasted 6+ ip in all of those 7 good starts then you're talking 7 quality starts and 6 starts that stink. Kinda Arroyo-lite for a fraction of a fraction of the cost.

Also, despite what Walt says I don't think we'll know for sure if we're buyers or sellers until this time next month. Imo, if we do become sellers the most marketable players WILL be Arroyo and Harang and IF Bailey shows that the improvement is real then we can part with ONE of the two when a team will be most desperate: at the deadline and for the right price.

Seems pretty reasonable to me.

We have FAR more data on Arroyo than we do on Owings. Sure, Owings could put it together...but I'd rather another team take that risk. He does not have an out pitch.

Blitz Dorsey
06-24-2009, 03:20 PM
We have FAR more data on Arroyo than we do on Owings. Sure, Owings could put it together...but I'd rather another team take that risk. He does not have an out pitch.

I'd rather keep Owings... but move him to the pen and use Bailey as the No. 5 starter. Couldn't the Reds keep Owings for relatively cheap the next couple years? Plus, you could still use Owings as a pinch hitter.

As for Arroyo, I'd prefer if the Reds kept him (I'm also in the "he's underrated" camp) but if a team wants to give us a couple top prospects for him, I'll help him pack his guitar.

fearofpopvol1
06-24-2009, 03:46 PM
I'd rather keep Owings... but move him to the pen and use Bailey as the No. 5 starter. Couldn't the Reds keep Owings for relatively cheap the next couple years? Plus, you could still use Owings as a pinch hitter.

As for Arroyo, I'd prefer if the Reds kept him (I'm also in the "he's underrated" camp) but if a team wants to give us a couple top prospects for him, I'll help him pack his guitar.

I am fine with this too.

traderumor
06-24-2009, 03:50 PM
I'd rather keep Owings... but move him to the pen and use Bailey as the No. 5 starter. Couldn't the Reds keep Owings for relatively cheap the next couple years? Plus, you could still use Owings as a pinch hitter.

As for Arroyo, I'd prefer if the Reds kept him (I'm also in the "he's underrated" camp) but if a team wants to give us a couple top prospects for him, I'll help him pack his guitar.As a pitcher, Owings makes a pretty good outfielder. Send him down to developmental leagues and hone his hitting talent, because I think we will get more value out of him as a hitter than ever as a pitcher.

bucksfan2
06-24-2009, 04:08 PM
As a pitcher, Owings makes a pretty good outfielder. Send him down to developmental leagues and hone his hitting talent, because I think we will get more value out of him as a hitter than ever as a pitcher.

I am completely against Owings as an OF. His swing for a pitcher is great, but his swing as an outfielder would be rather poor. He doesn't have a lot of patience at the plate. When he swings he steps a little into the bucket. I would imagine if he got 3+ at bats a day he would be pounded down and away and put up rather disappointing numbers.

Blitz Dorsey
06-24-2009, 04:23 PM
Yeah, that's a good way of saying it. Owings is a very good hitter for a pitcher, but wouldn't be a good full-time hitter IMO. He makes Jay Bruce and Brandon Phillips look patient.

traderumor
06-24-2009, 04:51 PM
I am completely against Owings as an OF. His swing for a pitcher is great, but his swing as an outfielder would be rather poor. He doesn't have a lot of patience at the plate. When he swings he steps a little into the bucket. I would imagine if he got 3+ at bats a day he would be pounded down and away and put up rather disappointing numbers.Notice I am sending him to the developmental league. I have documented those very concerns on this board myself. But he has shown the ability to crush the ball with a bad approach. Imagine what would happen if he focused on hitting!

bucksfan2
06-24-2009, 05:12 PM
Notice I am sending him to the developmental league. I have documented those very concerns on this board myself. But he has shown the ability to crush the ball with a bad approach. Imagine what would happen if he focused on hitting!

Micah Owings is a MLB quality starting pitcher. He may just be an end of the rotation pitcher, but in all likelihood he would be in the starting rotation of 25 or so teams in the majors. This isn't an Ankiel situation in which Ankiel told the team to do so, Owings would have to do it against his will.

Why would Owings agree to do that? Why would Owings want to sacrifice 2 years of MLB service time, MLB pay, years towards arbitration and free agency, as well as years towards the MLB pension program?

redsfandan
06-24-2009, 06:55 PM
Why would Owings agree to do that? Why would Owings want to sacrifice 2 years of MLB service time, MLB pay, years towards arbitration and free agency, as well as years towards the MLB pension program?
Valid point. Send him down to remake him as an outfielder and who knows if it could be even halfway successful. Think he wants to start over in the chance that it might pay off? Especially since if it didn't work he'd be out of, at minimum, a pretty nice pension. Plus everytime I've heard him it sounded like he didn't want to be anything but a pitcher. I just don't see it happenning.

GAC
06-24-2009, 07:15 PM
It was reported in the post-game last night - I think it was Thom - that Jocketty is looking for a bat, but is not shopping Arroyo. Take it for what it's worth.

BA starts tonight on the 1 yr anniversary of his disastrous start vs the Jays where he gave up 11 runs in 1 inning.

Time for some redemption. :thumbup:

redsfandan
06-24-2009, 07:22 PM
Yeah I know but it's still only June. Hopefully the Reds can turn things around but if they can't then this time next month...

membengal
06-24-2009, 07:31 PM
Notice I am sending him to the developmental league. I have documented those very concerns on this board myself. But he has shown the ability to crush the ball with a bad approach. Imagine what would happen if he focused on hitting!

Yup. If the Reds ever decide to go this route, tr is dead on that this is how it should begin, and he was clearly noted that Owings needs to work on approach if he goes to this fulltime.

It would take a few years, but, Ankiel made the switch. Yaneverknow.

Mario-Rijo
06-24-2009, 07:42 PM
Yup. If the Reds ever decide to go this route, tr is dead on that this is how it should begin, and he was clearly noted that Owings needs to work on approach if he goes to this fulltime.

It would take a few years, but, Ankiel made the switch. Yaneverknow.

I agree with yourself and TR on the subject, he has far better potential as a hitter. He is a potential impact bat IMO, as a pitcher he is just "meh" as they say. Get him to stop stepping out and this kid is Ankiel like if not better.

OnBaseMachine
06-24-2009, 08:45 PM
It was reported in the post-game last night - I think it was Thom - that Jocketty is looking for a bat, but is not shopping Arroyo. Take it for what it's worth.

BA starts tonight on the 1 yr anniversary of his disastrous start vs the Jays where he gave up 11 runs in 1 inning.

Time for some redemption. :thumbup:

Tonight wasn't much better. Bronson shouldn't be allowed to start anymore games on June 24th in Toronto.

traderumor
06-24-2009, 10:15 PM
Micah Owings is a MLB quality starting pitcher. He may just be an end of the rotation pitcher, but in all likelihood he would be in the starting rotation of 25 or so teams in the majors. This isn't an Ankiel situation in which Ankiel told the team to do so, Owings would have to do it against his will.

Why would Owings agree to do that? Why would Owings want to sacrifice 2 years of MLB service time, MLB pay, years towards arbitration and free agency, as well as years towards the MLB pension program?Since he appears to have the possibility of a longer career and higher salary as a hitter than he does a back of the rotation starter or middle reliever, I would say he would make up for lost time. Of course, nothing is a sure thing, including his ability to stick in the majors as a pitcher.

westofyou
06-24-2009, 10:58 PM
Notice I am sending him to the developmental league. I have documented those very concerns on this board myself. But he has shown the ability to crush the ball with a bad approach. Imagine what would happen if he focused on hitting!

They'd have to convert him FT, in 1933 Wes Farrell was tried in the OF for the Indians, he was better hitter than Owings, better pitcher too. A lot of teh hub bub about the move was that he'd hurt his arm throwing in the OF.

He did

Ron Madden
06-25-2009, 04:13 AM
Owings future in MLB depends a lot more on his arm than his bat.

Ltlabner
06-25-2009, 08:23 AM
Bronson + Toronto/ June 24th =

http://goatmilk.files.wordpress.com/2008/05/mushroom-cloud1.jpg

edabbs44
06-25-2009, 08:32 AM
Last night was Arroyo's 7th start out of 15 this season where he let up 5 or more runs. Not a good stat.

redsfandan
06-25-2009, 08:57 AM
Yup. If the Reds ever decide to go this route, tr is dead on that this is how it should begin, and he was clearly noted that Owings needs to work on approach if he goes to this fulltime.

It would take a few years, but, Ankiel made the switch. Yaneverknow.
Ankiel didn't have a choice. He couldn't pitch anymore so if he wanted to keep playing baseball he HAD to make the switch. Owings isn't in the same boat. He has the choice and he doesn't want to switch. Also, if you compare the bb/k of the two Ankiel at least showed respectable, but not great, plate discipline in the minors. Owings has never shown that. His bb/k as a hitter has always been terrible.

This note, from when he was drafted, is from a piece on fangraphs: “Clubs continue to prefer him as a pitcher. His aggressive approach plays better on the mound than at the plate, where he’s prone to strikeouts and causes scouts to question how he’d fare against better pitching…"
He's a great hitter for his position but as a full-time hitter I think that terrible plate discipline would become a big problem.
Since he appears to have the possibility of a longer career and higher salary as a hitter than he does a back of the rotation starter or middle reliever, I would say he would make up for lost time. Of course, nothing is a sure thing, including his ability to stick in the majors as a pitcher.An outfielder (who could stink defensively for all we know) with some power but terrible plate discipline wouldn't last long in the majors and would last even less as a starter.

One interesing note, that same fangraphs piece says that "while in the ‘pen (when he was in high A ball), Owings’ velocity soared to the 94-97 MPH range. However, the D-Backs were intent on keeping him in the rotation, concluding that a league-average or better starter is more scarce than a quality reliever." Now he may very well end up as a better reliever and that could be the key to him having a longer career but right now I still think he's the best option for us in the #5 spot right now especially with the improvements I mentioned in my previous posts in this thread. If Bailey does well and Volquez is back in a month (and neither Harang/Arroyo are traded) then I have no problem with putting Owings in the pen. But making him quit pitching to become a leftfielder? Imo, it's just wishful thinking by some that won't materialize into anything.

membengal
06-25-2009, 09:01 AM
I didn't say Owings wanted to switch now. I was talking about the process if he and the Reds ever did decide that it should happen.

redsfandan
06-25-2009, 09:11 AM
I understand that. That's why I underlined the part about Ankiel. To me they're just totally different situations. Ankiel was able to switch. I'm just not convinced Owings would be able to do the same.

traderumor
06-25-2009, 11:43 AM
I understand that. That's why I underlined the part about Ankiel. To me they're just totally different situations. Ankiel was able to switch. I'm just not convinced Owings would be able to do the same.The same concerns were out there about Ankiel after the decision was made. The situation is similar in this respect--Ankiel and the Cardinals agreed that he was not going to make a career out of pitching in the major leagues, but he had shown some major league potential at the plate.

Anyone who goes from hitting in the 9th spot as a pitcher is not going to show plate discipline, since the opposing pitcher is conditioned with "never walk the opposing pitcher," they know they are going to see fastballs early and often.

Your conclusion that "Ankiel was able to switch" is purely hindsight, with very similar concerns about his ability to switch expressed as the decision was made.

Of course, the major difference is that Ankiel had totally flamed out as a pitcher, while Owings is admittedly serviceable as a 11th or 12th member of a pitching staff. I would just hope that with his unique ability (for a pitcher) at the plate, that someone would throw that out there to him as an idea to be a more productive major leaguer.

bucksfan2
06-25-2009, 11:59 AM
The same concerns were out there about Ankiel after the decision was made. The situation is similar in this respect--Ankiel and the Cardinals agreed that he was not going to make a career out of pitching in the major leagues, but he had shown some major league potential at the plate.

Ankiel couldn't pitch. Psychologically he was a disaster every time he took the mound. He just didn't want to pitch and it was a mutual decision. He was never going to become an effective pitcher again because of a mental block. The same can't be said about Owings.

Benihana
06-25-2009, 12:01 PM
The more I hear about Owings, the more I'm liking his future in the bullpen- at least, for the long term with the Reds. I think the Reds would be well served by having guys like Owings and Thompson (guys who can gas it up to 94-96) in the 'pen, with a future rotation (2011-) of:

Cueto
Volquez
Harang
Bailey
Leake/Stewart/Wood

Falls City Beer
06-25-2009, 12:15 PM
Owings is pretty long in the tooth to be going back and reinventing himself.

bucksfan2
06-25-2009, 12:17 PM
Owings is pretty long in the tooth to be going back and reinventing himself.

A lot of starters turn relievers later on in their career and have a pretty successful run at it. I think Owings can do the same.

Falls City Beer
06-25-2009, 12:26 PM
A lot of starters turn relievers later on in their career and have a pretty successful run at it. I think Owings can do the same.

I was talking about turning him into a hitter. I would be fine moving him to the pen, but not till next year. The Reds are, with Volquez's long-term injury, pretty much bleeding effective innings-pitchers. They need Owings in the rotation for now, and likely the rest of the season.

Benihana
06-25-2009, 12:27 PM
nm

Chip R
06-25-2009, 12:51 PM
A lot of starters turn relievers later on in their career and have a pretty successful run at it. I think Owings can do the same.


That's a whole other kettle of fish than transforming from pitcher to every day player.

redsfandan
06-25-2009, 12:51 PM
The same concerns were out there about Ankiel after the decision was made. The situation is similar in this respect--Ankiel and the Cardinals agreed that he was not going to make a career out of pitching in the major leagues, but he had shown some major league potential at the plate.

Anyone who goes from hitting in the 9th spot as a pitcher is not going to show plate discipline, since the opposing pitcher is conditioned with "never walk the opposing pitcher," they know they are going to see fastballs early and often.

Your conclusion that "Ankiel was able to switch" is purely hindsight, with very similar concerns about his ability to switch expressed as the decision was made.

Of course, the major difference is that Ankiel had totally flamed out as a pitcher, while Owings is admittedly serviceable as a 11th or 12th member of a pitching staff. I would just hope that with his unique ability (for a pitcher) at the plate, that someone would throw that out there to him as an idea to be a more productive major leaguer.
It's already been suggested to Owings. IIRC, his response was that he liked to hit but he liked to pitch more and that he didn't want to stop pitching. Maybe the scouts were right and he's just too aggressive at the plate. Or maybe you're right and it's just cuz of the way the opposing pitchers approach him. But even if he did switch he'd likely be back down in the minors for at least a season to try to remake himself. Our current projected options in left for 2011 include Votto (if he's moved to make room for Alonso), Frazier, Heisey, and a couple others. So do you think it would be worth it to make Owings switch in the chance that he could outproduce all of them at that point?

traderumor
06-25-2009, 03:02 PM
Our current projected options in left for 2011 include Votto (if he's moved to make room for Alonso), Frazier, Heisey, and a couple others. So do you think it would be worth it to make Owings switch in the chance that he could outproduce all of them at that point?I would always be about getting the most production out of the assets I have under my control. If the guy can hit, I'll find a place for him to play. If I can't find a place for him to play, then I trade from a position of strength. I wouldn't make any decision based on "oh, we already have too many of those in the organization." That situation can change way too fast, as we have seen recently with the 1B position. And the worst thing you end up with is an embarrasment of riches, so you trade to shore up some other weak area.

mth123
06-25-2009, 07:22 PM
I think Owings best future lies on an AL team in a big park that will use him as a 5th starter/Swing Man/DH against LHP. Not sure there is a GM that would give him that role though.

redsfandan
06-25-2009, 08:00 PM
I would always be about getting the most production out of the assets I have under my control. If the guy can hit, I'll find a place for him to play. If I can't find a place for him to play, then I trade from a position of strength. I wouldn't make any decision based on "oh, we already have too many of those in the organization." That situation can change way too fast, as we have seen recently with the 1B position. And the worst thing you end up with is an embarrasment of riches, so you trade to shore up some other weak area.
My point is that Owings helps us NOW by filing the role of 5th starter. We can debate if he's good enough of a starting pitcher to fill that role all day. But with the Reds track record in the 5th spot, and now with the injury to Volquez, I just don't see the point in not using him in that role just cuz of a thought that he might be productive in another role a year or two down the road. Imo, he's just needed more in the 5th spot right now.

WebScorpion
06-26-2009, 02:47 AM
My point is that Owings helps us NOW by filing the role of 5th starter. We can debate if he's good enough of a starting pitcher to fill that role all day. But with the Reds track record in the 5th spot, and now with the injury to Volquez, I just don't see the point in not using him in that role just cuz of a thought that he might be productive in another role a year or two down the road. Imo, he's just needed more in the 5th spot right now.

I agree! He's the best 5th starter we've got right now, and if we trade one of our vets for a hitter, we'll need him there all season. In fact, he really qualifies as more of a #3-#4 pitcher. Ranked by WHIP (for expediency since we only need a general idea) in 2009, we have a #1 starter ranked in the top 30, (Cueto-11th,) a #2 in the 31-60 range, (Harang- 49th,) and two #3 starters in the 61-90 range, (Arroyo- 77, Owings- 89,)...Volquez would be another #2(46th) if he had enough innings pitched to qualify.

Mario-Rijo
06-26-2009, 04:22 PM
How about an alternative plan? Is he still a FA?


From Gammons 6-19

Mark Mulder made considerable progress refinding his delivery after one session with pitching coach Rick Peterson. Mulder was once "The Natural," but he hurt his back lifting weights, which led to a cracked hip, which led to shoulder problems, and he forgot how to throw. But he's worked really hard to be back in late July, and he dreams of someday being able to play catch with his son in a major league uniform.

You can't root hard enough for him.

traderumor
06-26-2009, 05:52 PM
My point is that Owings helps us NOW by filing the role of 5th starter. We can debate if he's good enough of a starting pitcher to fill that role all day. But with the Reds track record in the 5th spot, and now with the injury to Volquez, I just don't see the point in not using him in that role just cuz of a thought that he might be productive in another role a year or two down the road. Imo, he's just needed more in the 5th spot right now.Sure its risk vs. reward. What isn't? I find Owings replaceable both currently and in the future and would rather see us get the most out of him instead of mediocrity (at best) for his mound talent. I'd say we have a pretty good head start on knowing what his hitting talents are since no one is saying "hey, he has a pretty good swing" but are basing it on what we have all seen him do. I'd say if there was a time for the Reds to afford to take such a high risk/high reward move, now is the time in the organization, with more pitching depth than slugging depth in the fold.

IslandRed
06-26-2009, 06:23 PM
Sure its risk vs. reward. What isn't? I find Owings replaceable both currently and in the future and would rather see us get the most out of him instead of mediocrity (at best) for his mound talent. I'd say we have a pretty good head start on knowing what his hitting talents are since no one is saying "hey, he has a pretty good swing" but are basing it on what we have all seen him do. I'd say if there was a time for the Reds to afford to take such a high risk/high reward move, now is the time in the organization, with more pitching depth than slugging depth in the fold.

He's not THAT easily replaced in the rotation, if we use as a guide most of Reds history. I'm not saying he can't be replaced, but to assume we have five as good or better and will continue to have them indefinitely is a pretty optimistic view to take.

But if we're that loaded that we don't need him to pitch for us, he's definitely good enough to pitch for somebody. Why not take your prior logic...


If I can't find a place for him to play, then I trade from a position of strength.

... and invoke it now, trading him to a team desperate for pitching? Seems like that ROI would at least as high as trying to shine him up as a hitter.

redsfandan
06-26-2009, 06:36 PM
How about an alternative plan? Is he still a FA?

Mark Mulder made considerable progress refinding his delivery after one session with pitching coach Rick Peterson. Mulder was once "The Natural," but he hurt his back lifting weights, which led to a cracked hip, which led to shoulder problems, and he forgot how to throw. But he's worked really hard to be back in late July, and he dreams of someday being able to play catch with his son in a major league uniform.

You can't root hard enough for him.

From Gammons 6-19
If you want to mention Mulder you have to include Ben Sheets although he'll probably sign with Texas once he's ready.

Mario-Rijo
06-26-2009, 06:44 PM
If you want to mention Mulder you have to include Ben Sheets although he'll probably sign with Texas once he's ready.

I just brought up Mulder because of the previous interest Walt had and his price tag may not be that high.

Ron Madden
06-27-2009, 05:52 AM
Owings being one of our most threatening hitters off the bench says more about our weaknesses than it does about Owings talent as a hitter.

redsfandan
06-27-2009, 02:49 PM
I just brought up Mulder because of the previous interest Walt had and his price tag may not be that high.
I understand. I just added Sheets cuz they may both be available at the same time. But with all the missed time by so many key players who knows how many players we'd have to acquire to stay in the race.