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View Full Version : Will Devin Mesoraco be a bust?



fearofpopvol1
06-22-2009, 10:32 PM
Just a question. Do you think he will be a bust?

http://web.minorleaguebaseball.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?n=Devin%20Mesoraco&pos=C&sid=milb&t=p_pbp&pid=519023

I am not saying he will nor am I trying to get people to say he will be. Just looking for some good discussion.

I think it is fair to say that thus far, he's been disappointing. Particularly for where the Reds drafted him. Thankfully, he is still young and did show some positive signs this year. I fully hope that he does turn it around...I am rooting for him. I'm just not sure at this point.

Benihana
06-22-2009, 10:38 PM
Whatever happens, he should be repeating Sarasota next season. I expect him to get leapfrogged by Alex Fleury.

dougdirt
06-22-2009, 10:43 PM
His secondary skills at the plate look fine to me.

11.8% walk rate
19.8% strike out rate
.140 isolated power

Those are solid numbers for a 20 year old in the Florida State League. I think its going to come down to whether his defense makes strides forward. After tonight he has thrown out 21% of the batters that have attempted to steal against him. Its up from last year, but still not where you want to see it.

I believe his arm is plenty strong enough, but I haven't liked his footwork behind the plate in the past. Its slowed down everything from the point to where he catches the ball to when he releases it. He is young though, if his footwork can get better, I believe he will be fine.

GOYA
06-22-2009, 10:45 PM
I don't have much faith in him. I'd love to be wrong. He just turned 21 so there's time.

GIDP
06-22-2009, 10:47 PM
Im actually pretty optimistic about him behind the plate. Hes a young guy and is probably on a long track to the majors anyways. I expect his defense to improve.

The offense on the other hand is a big question mark. One thing I will say is that he has improved his walk rate. The BA is low but he did hit .260 last year. The improvements are there so its a good sign.

Degenerate39
06-22-2009, 10:48 PM
I don't have much faith in him. I'd love to be wrong. He just turned 21 so there's time.

Really? I was thinking he was younger than that.

dougdirt
06-22-2009, 10:54 PM
Really? I was thinking he was younger than that.

He turned 21 three days ago.

Blitz Dorsey
06-22-2009, 11:05 PM
Huge disappointment to me so far. And I realize he is still very young and isn't a complete disaster looking at his stats. However, I fear Buckley put WAY TOO MUCH STOCK in a hot streak from Mesoraco his senior year in high school... when he just so happened to be a year older than all the seniors he was playing against (got held back early in life -- so he was almost 19 when he graduated high school).

I hope I'm wrong and then some. But yes, I think we're going to look back on Mesoraco as a bust considering where he was drafted. At this point, I bet he will be a Craig Tatum type that is a AAA catcher at best but never makes the majors for a long period of time.

bucksfan2
06-23-2009, 11:58 AM
I won't make a decision on him until he is 24. He has the tools just needs to put it all together. Catchers generally take longer than usual to develop. From the reports I have heard he has good strike zone judgment and good feet. You can't that. He may be a late developer, but it isn't all that unusual for catchers.

Danny Serafini
06-23-2009, 01:16 PM
He's been disappointing so far, but I always looked at him as a 5 year project from the day he was drafted, so I'm not going to get too worried at this stage.

reds44
06-23-2009, 01:18 PM
He's a catcher, and a high school catcher at that. They take forever to develop.

SMcGavin
06-23-2009, 03:34 PM
He's been disappointing so far, but I always looked at him as a 5 year project from the day he was drafted, so I'm not going to get too worried at this stage.

Yeah, this pretty much sums it up.

Kingspoint
06-23-2009, 05:20 PM
Let's wait 4 more years, because it's going to take that long for him to develop.

Edd Roush
07-30-2009, 08:03 AM
Just wanted to bump this thread up. Devin is now going to finish his third straight month with an OPS north of .700. While it's certainly nothing worthy of a comparison to Johnny Bench, it illuminates the progress he is making. Especially considering that his season line still reads .223/.310/.371, Devin has made some real progress. Furthermore, this proves that season stas are skin deep. One could look at that line and think that Devin hasn't made much progress this year until they look at his monthly splits. .261/ .327/.420 is his July line right now and if we keep on seeing that line, I think he will maintain his prospect status. They always say that catchers take longer to develop, so let's hope that Devin keeps his OPS going the right way.

dougdirt
07-30-2009, 12:27 PM
Its the FSL. Worry more about the peripherals than the slash lines.

Homer Bailey
07-30-2009, 12:28 PM
Its the FSL. Worry more about the peripherals than the slash lines.

And what would you say about the peripherals? I know your reports recently have been positive, but just wanted to hear it in a bit more detail. Is his defense continuing to improve?

dougdirt
07-30-2009, 12:33 PM
And what would you say about the peripherals? I know your reports recently have been positive, but just wanted to hear it in a bit more detail. Is his defense continuing to improve?

Peripherals look solid. Strong walk rate, strikeout rate isn't bad (not good, but not bad either) and his power looks fine. Defense looks fine as well. He has thrown out 44% of the last 43 attempted base stealers.

Orenda
07-30-2009, 01:41 PM
Sadly, among players with over 150 abs his .681 OPS is tops on the Sarasota roster.

M2
07-30-2009, 01:50 PM
Will he be a bust?

That assumes he's not one already.

Allowing for that small percentile of "anything can happen," he's been a rolling disaster. If he hadn't been wildly overdrafted no one would pay him an ounce of attention.

mace
07-30-2009, 02:02 PM
I'm actually starting to warm to Mesoraco a bit. You have to consider, first off, that he started out a couple hundred yards from the starting line. He was a high school kid--a high school catcher, no less--from a Northern background (meaning less field time) who had lost time with injuries and was still dealing with them when he turned pro. Two years later, he's in High-A, and while not setting the league on fire, he's had his moments. By most accounts, his defense has improved radically. He has begun to throw out base-stealers. It's very plausible think that, if he stays in High-A for another year, he could hit 20-25 HR and play pretty decent defense. And he'd still only be 21. I'm not ready to move him into my top five, but I don't think he has disqualified himself as a prospect. Not yet, anyway.

Benihana
07-30-2009, 02:02 PM
Allowing for that small percentile of "anything can happen," he's been a rolling disaster. If he hadn't been wildly overdrafted no one would pay him an ounce of attention.

+1

lollipopcurve
07-30-2009, 02:36 PM
He's an interesting case. Out of a high school baseball backwater, playing the toughest position on the field, pushed HARD by the organization, probably rushed. Has played 2 of his 3 years in the heat of summer Sarasota, in front of nobody. Some injury issues along the way. And he seems to be pushing through, showing nicely at the plate in the latter part of this year, with supposed strong defensive improvement. In my opinion, this kid must be pretty tough upstairs.

He's looking better than he ever has right now. Having him and Coddington in A ball provides the organization with a couple midrange catching prospects 2-3 years away. Good deal.

HokieRed
07-30-2009, 02:53 PM
He's an interesting case. Out of a high school baseball backwater, playing the toughest position on the field, pushed HARD by the organization, probably rushed. Has played 2 of his 3 years in the heat of summer Sarasota, in front of nobody. Some injury issues along the way. And he seems to be pushing through, showing nicely at the plate in the latter part of this year, with supposed strong defensive improvement. In my opinion, this kid must be pretty tough upstairs.

He's looking better than he ever has right now. Having him and Coddington in A ball provides the organization with a couple midrange catching prospects 2-3 years away. Good deal.


Good post. He's making progress, he's playing in a league dominated by guys who've played much more baseball than he has, his peripherals are decent. He was no doubt overdrafted; drafting h.s. catchers high is probably a bad idea in general. With all that, he "seems to be pushing through" and the toughness you note may be as important as anything else the catcher has among those tools of ignorance.

Edd Roush
07-30-2009, 06:41 PM
Peripherals look solid. Strong walk rate, strikeout rate isn't bad (not good, but not bad either) and his power looks fine. Defense looks fine as well. He has thrown out 44% of the last 43 attempted base stealers.

Thanks for the breakdown, Doug. Is Mesoraco a top 25 catching prospect in baseball?

GIDP
07-30-2009, 06:47 PM
Is there even 25 catching prospects in baseball? :laugh:

Edd Roush
07-30-2009, 06:48 PM
Will he be a bust?

That assumes he's not one already.

Allowing for that small percentile of "anything can happen," he's been a rolling disaster. If he hadn't been wildly overdrafted no one would pay him an ounce of attention.

M2, I think this is an over-reaction. By most scouts accounts, he has all of the physical tools. He is just now starting to show some consistent results. As for a top-half first round pick, I can agree he was a reach. However, in isolation, he still has solid potential. I don't know how you can judge Mesoraco at such a young age. A 21 year old bust, c'mon.

Edd Roush
07-30-2009, 06:49 PM
Is there even 25 catching prospects in baseball? :laugh:

Good point. Haha, I was just wondering how he stacks up.

M2
07-30-2009, 07:18 PM
M2, I think this is an over-reaction. By most scouts accounts, he has all of the physical tools. He is just now starting to show some consistent results. As for a top-half first round pick, I can agree he was a reach. However, in isolation, he still has solid potential. I don't know how you can judge Mesoraco at such a young age. A 21 year old bust, c'mon.

By most scouts accounts, he'd fallen off the radar last season. BA did a top 25 catching prospects list prior to the season and Mesoraco wasn't on it (something a few folks around here insisted couldn't possibly happen before it did).

Honestly, do you think if the Reds were in the hunt and trading for a vet right now that any other team would view Mesoraco as anything more than deal filler?

He does not have solid potential. Solid potential should mean he's more than likely to be a quality every day player in the majors. The way he's played to date makes Mesoraco a poor bet to ever see the majors. He's got the same chance as any other number of mediocre players in the low minors, exceedingly slim. Yet due to his draft slot Reds fans know his name and have attached unreasonable hopes to him.

Frankly, I don't know how anyone can't judge Mesoraco given the stain he's left in the pants of the last three seasons.

krm1580
07-30-2009, 11:58 PM
I am going to say bust but not gigantic bust because outside of Porcello, I don't see a whole lot of guys drafted later in the first round that I regret us missing on.

On the other hand, ohhhh to have picked one slot earlier and grabbed Jason Heyward. That dude is going to be a monster. He is putting putting up Jay Bruce type minor league numbers at a younger age and in a higher level, but controls the strike zone much better 34BB/37K in 262 at bats.

dougdirt
07-31-2009, 12:18 AM
He does not have solid potential. Solid potential should mean he's more than likely to be a quality every day player in the majors. The way he's played to date makes Mesoraco a poor bet to ever see the majors. He's got the same chance as any other number of mediocre players in the low minors, exceedingly slim. Yet due to his draft slot Reds fans know his name and have attached unreasonable hopes to him.

Frankly, I don't know how anyone can't judge Mesoraco given the stain he's left in the pants of the last three seasons.

So a guy walking 10%, striking out 21% and carrying an IsoP of .149 in the FSL as a 20/21 year old catcher who has all of a sudden started throwing out 40+% of the last 50 base runners against him does not have solid potential?

Mesoraco's peripherals look a whole lot like those of Todd Frazier from the FSL last year (9.9% BB rate, 20.3% K rate and an IsoP of .170 as a 22 year old). Todd was rated one of the Reds best prospects last year by everyone. Just something to think about before we throw Mesoraco down the toilet.

Scrap Irony
07-31-2009, 12:53 AM
Except he doesn't hit the ball, doug. And never has professionally. His bat on ball skills are atrocious and that's the one tool you have to have in order to play in the major leagues. (Unless, of course, you're Adam Dunn and can hit 40 homers and walk 100 times a year.) His professional offensive splits, over 200+ games, are .238/.311/.364/.674

Yes, as of now, he recognizes a ball and lays off a decent number of them. Yes, he has some pop when he hits the ball. But he's almost assuredly going to see those balls dry up as he progresses and better pitchers throw more strikes. Strikes that he often cannot hit. At all.

If he were great defensively, I could see an argument. You could argue he may carve out a Mike Matheny type career. And Jocketty is certainly a GM that loves D behind the plate. But Mesoraco has had to work like a madman just to be below average behind the plate, rather than putrid.

Can he get better? Sure. He could. He could suddenly find an ability to hit the ball squarely. He could work even harder and develop into an above average receiver as well.

It's unfair at this point to definitively state Mesoraco's a bust, but, if I were a betting man, I'd lay 10-to-1 odds he'll struggle to have a career as good as Paul Bako's. (Who, BTW, had three minor league 800+ OPS seasons and a minor league career split of .266 .345 .385 .731)

dougdirt
07-31-2009, 01:16 AM
Except he doesn't hit the ball, doug. And never has professionally. His bat on ball skills are atrocious and that's the one tool you have to have in order to play in the major leagues. (Unless, of course, you're Adam Dunn and can hit 40 homers and walk 100 times a year.) His professional offensive splits, over 200+ games, are .238/.311/.364/.674
His line drive rate is currently at 20% in the FSL, which is tied for 5th best in the league. He does hit the ball, his BABIP is just sitting at .269 right now despite being among the league leaders in line drives. MinorLeagueSplits.com has this cool function that attempts to correct 'luck' based on FB/GB/LD rates (given how often those balls go for hits in a given league and then how many that player hits). Checking in on Mesoraco (http://www.minorleaguesplits.com/cgi-bin/pl.cgi?pl=519023), it suggests he should be around .275/.355/.440 mark before the tonights game where he went 1-4 with a double. Is it perfect? No, its certainly not. It does shed a little bit of light onto the 'luck' factor of his season so far though.



Yes, as of now, he recognizes a ball and lays off a decent number of them. Yes, he has some pop when he hits the ball. But he's almost assuredly going to see those balls dry up as he progresses and better pitchers throw more strikes. Strikes that he often cannot hit. At all.
What is this assumption based on? You make an assumption that he can hit the ball with some pop when he hits it and that he recognizes a ball and generally lays off of it, but that when a pitcher throws him a strike he often can't hit it.... That confuses me a little bit. Am I misreading it or are you saying he doesn't swing at balls, hits for power when he hits it, but won't hit for power when pitchers throw him more strikes?



If he were great defensively, I could see an argument. You could argue he may carve out a Mike Matheny type career. And Jocketty is certainly a GM that loves D behind the plate. But Mesoraco has had to work like a madman just to be below average behind the plate, rather than putrid.
Right now I would argue that Mesoraco is playing like an above average catcher behind the plate. He has thrown out 44% of the base runners attempting to steal against him since Mid May (43 runners), is around the league average in passed balls and errors. Overall that doesn't sound like a below average catcher to me.

Mario-Rijo
07-31-2009, 01:32 AM
I see Mes like that kid who started kindergarten at 4 who maybe shouldn't have but can get bye so it's allowed to continue all the way thru school. At some point he'll either fail a grade or catch up to his vast potential. Ya can't fault a 5 year old for getting C's in the 1st grade. Allow him the opportunity to stall and fall off or blow up. I don't have a problem with waiting when a guy is showing progress and if ya can't see he is it's because you put on the blinders way too soon and refuse to take them off or you just have poor vision to begin with.

GIDP
07-31-2009, 01:39 AM
If Devin can be a good defensive catcher thats all I worry about right now. I think the hitting will come later.

princeton
07-31-2009, 07:43 AM
I can never figure out why DM gets moved up so quickly and Todd Frazier does not.

(plus I suspect that Frazier would turn out to be the better catcher ;))

M2
07-31-2009, 09:10 AM
I see Mes like that kid who started kindergarten at 4 who maybe shouldn't have but can get bye so it's allowed to continue all the way thru school. At some point he'll either fail a grade or catch up to his vast potential. Ya can't fault a 5 year old for getting C's in the 1st grade. Allow him the opportunity to stall and fall off or blow up. I don't have a problem with waiting when a guy is showing progress and if ya can't see he is it's because you put on the blinders way too soon and refuse to take them off or you just have poor vision to begin with.

He's definitely playing at least a level too advanced for where he should be. As for progress, the improvement from diarrhea to solid fecal matter is nice and all, but I still don't want it on my floor.

Benihana
07-31-2009, 09:44 AM
As for progress, the improvement from diarrhea to solid fecal matter is nice and all, but I still don't want it on my floor.

:lol:

Scrap Irony
07-31-2009, 09:54 AM
His line drive rate is currently at 20% in the FSL, which is tied for 5th best in the league. He does hit the ball, his BABIP is just sitting at .269 right now despite being among the league leaders in line drives. MinorLeagueSplits.com has this cool function that attempts to correct 'luck' based on FB/GB/LD rates (given how often those balls go for hits in a given league and then how many that player hits). Checking in on Mesoraco (http://www.minorleaguesplits.com/cgi-bin/pl.cgi?pl=519023), it suggests he should be around .275/.355/.440 mark before the tonights game where he went 1-4 with a double. Is it perfect? No, its certainly not. It does shed a little bit of light onto the 'luck' factor of his season so far though.

So we're back to line drive percentage and BABIP? LD% has been discussed over and over. It's a seriously flawed stat. And the worst hitters in the league often have poor BABIPs. Why? Because they can't hit the ball well. Mesoraco is like that, doug. He's shown a three-year trend to struggle to hit the ball.



What is this assumption based on? You make an assumption that he can hit the ball with some pop when he hits it and that he recognizes a ball and generally lays off of it, but that when a pitcher throws him a strike he often can't hit it.... That confuses me a little bit. Am I misreading it or are you saying he doesn't swing at balls, hits for power when he hits it, but won't hit for power when pitchers throw him more strikes?

It's not assumption at all. It's logic. When Mesoraco makes contact, he generally has some power. Mesoraco also has a good BB rate and lays off really poor pitches. But he doesn't make contact enough for either of those to matter much now. It's a contact issue and Mesoraco is a very poor contact hitter. If he had Dunn's power, that'd be okay. He doesn't.


Right now I would argue that Mesoraco is playing like an above average catcher behind the plate. He has thrown out 44% of the base runners attempting to steal against him since Mid May (43 runners), is around the league average in passed balls and errors. Overall that doesn't sound like a below average catcher to me.

Sample size issues here, and he's only improved to below average. His CS rate this year is 28%. Why has it improved to simply average over the past few weeks? Perhaps because the book on Mesoraco is, as scouts have said, that his footwork is slow and he methodical with the ball. Therefore, more guys (re: slower guys) tried his arm.

BuckeyeRedleg
07-31-2009, 10:31 AM
I see Mes like that kid who started kindergarten at 4 who maybe shouldn't have but can get bye so it's allowed to continue all the way thru school.

Ironically, he was pretty old for his class, turning 19 soon after graduation, but I understand your point.

Let's look at it this way. Say Mesoraco went to college (wherever that was supposed to be). He would have just finished up his sophomore year and he'd probably be playing in a wooden bat league somewhere (probably the Cape Cod).

Let's say after his junior year (2010) he again is a top draft pick. He probably would start out at Hi-A, right? So, you can look at it like he's a year ahead of schedule, as he wouldn't be in Hi-A until mid 2010 (right after being drafted). I can accept some lumps when looking at it like this.

If he can get his OPS up to over .700 by the end of the year (in a tough hitters league), I see no reason why he can't make major strides in high A again next year, which is where he would have probably been if was drafted anyway.

Edd Roush
07-31-2009, 10:41 AM
His professional offensive splits, over 200+ games, are .238/.311/.364/.674



The reason I bumped this thread up was to show that his slash lines have been improving for the past three months.

I see real improvement out of Mes and I hope he can continue it.

How any one can call a guy who would be a college sophomore right now a bust is beyond me. Give the kid a couple more years. I like what he has done lately and I hope he can keep on improving.

Benihana
07-31-2009, 11:10 AM
The reason I bumped this thread up was to show that his slash lines have been improving for the past three months.

I see real improvement out of Mes and I hope he can continue it.

How any one can call a guy who would be a college sophomore right now a bust is beyond me. Give the kid a couple more years. I like what he has done lately and I hope he can keep on improving.

Fine, a bust may be a little premature.

But if Devin were to go into the draft next year (he'd be draft eligible by that point had he gone to college), where do you think he'd be drafted?

Certainly not pick 15, that's for sure. I'd bet he'd still be on the board at pick 150. That illustrates a massive drop in value from the time that he was drafted, and massive drop in value from the time one is drafted is usually synonymous with bust.

redsmetz
07-31-2009, 11:34 AM
Let's say after his junior year (2010) he again is a top draft pick. He probably would start out at Hi-A, right? So, you can look at it like he's a year ahead of schedule, as he wouldn't be in Hi-A until mid 2010 (right after being drafted). I can accept some lumps when looking at it like this.

Perhaps we have, but have any of our draftees from this year started at High A? I know one or a couple are at Dayton, but most started at Billings. Am I correct on that? I agree with your point that he's presently playing higher than he would be next year had he gone to college.

BuckeyeRedleg
07-31-2009, 11:44 AM
Perhaps we have, but have any of our draftees from this year started at High A? I know one or a couple are at Dayton, but most started at Billings. Am I correct on that? I agree with your point that he's presently playing higher than he would be next year had he gone to college.

It's not uncommon for top college draft picks to start at Hi A. I believe that's where Alonso started as well. Wouldn't be surprised to see Leake there as well.

Even if the 2010 college version of Mes starts out at Dayton, the point stands. He's playing a level up right now.

Benihana
07-31-2009, 11:45 AM
Let's say after his junior year (2010) he again is a top draft pick.

Your scenario dies here.

If Mesoraco were to re-enter the 2010 draft, he wouldn't go in the Top 5 rounds.

11larkin11
07-31-2009, 11:54 AM
Your scenario dies here.

If Mesoraco were to re-enter the 2010 draft, he wouldn't go in the Top 5 rounds.

I highly doubt he would be this bad at a college level with an aluminum bat. That is entirely pessimistic guessing on your part

HokieRed
07-31-2009, 11:56 AM
Where will Fleury be next year? Top college catcher, fourth rounder; he's at Billings and, last time I looked, struggling mightily. UNC's catcher from last year, Fedorowicz, high draft of the RedSox last year, is somebody I watch at High A in the Carolina league; last time I noticed his OPS was below .600. Just from a rough check of the Sarasota roster, looked to me like the median age for our FSL pitchers is about 25. Wouldn't surprise me if a very ordinary 25 year old pitcher could fool the s--- out of a kid two years out of high school baseball just learning to use a wooden bat--a pitcher that, with another year of familiarity, he'll absolutely kill. In short, I think it might be said that Mes (and I'll add I was no fan of the draft pick, nor of Krivsky's drafts generally) is more than one level higher than he might be, that all the sample sizes are far too small at this point to mean much of anything, that if he's been promoted much faster than Frazier it might be because somebody besides just Wayne sees something very impressive in the kid, and that really about the only thing for us to keep an eye on at this point is whether he's improving.

BuckeyeRedleg
07-31-2009, 12:08 PM
Your scenario dies here.

If Mesoraco were to re-enter the 2010 draft, he wouldn't go in the Top 5 rounds.

Ouch, but that wasn't the point of my scenario. I was just pointing out that had he gone to college and then drafted in 2010, he would be just starting out at or below the level he is at now.

Say he is the all-world catcher out of college and he's taken top 10 in the 2010 draft. He would be placed in Dayton or Sarasota, after he signed, and if he put up a .700-ish OPS he wouldn't automatically be considered a bust. If he put up .800 or more, he'd be considered on his way.

Mesoraco could still do that by 2010. I don't consider him a slam dunk prospect, but I'm not writing him off yet either.

Benihana
07-31-2009, 12:18 PM
All this should be put to rest next year. He will (hopefully) repeat High A, and it will be put up or shut up time in terms of his ability to hit (not to mention his defense.)

Of course catchers have a longer development cycle, and I'm not expecting him to fast-track it to the big leagues next year, but one more year of this sub-.750 OPS and I think we'll know what to call it.

Again, not saying he has no hope or zero future. Just saying relative to where he was drafted, he is/will be a colossal disappointment.

M2
07-31-2009, 12:20 PM
I highly doubt he would be this bad at a college level with an aluminum bat. That is entirely pessimistic guessing on your part

No, it's actually based partially on his performance to date. Stating that he'd be doing well would be entirely optimistic guessing on your part - essentially that he'd be doing something totally unlike what he's done to date in pro ball.

FWIW, if anyone here is asserting that he should have gone to college, I agree.

Benihana
07-31-2009, 12:21 PM
Say he is the all-world catcher out of college and he's taken top 10 in the 2010 draft. He would be placed in Dayton or Sarasota, after he signed, and if he put up a .700-ish OPS he wouldn't automatically be considered a bust. If he put up .800 or more, he'd be considered on his way.

Mesoraco could still do that by 2010. I don't consider him a slam dunk prospect, but I'm not writing him off yet either.

Again, you are assuming something in your hypothetical scenarios that just doesn't hold. If Mesoraco demonstrated a skill set in the last 2+ years in the organization that could convince me that he'd have a chance at being an "all-world catcher out of college" or a "high draft pick in 2010" then I'd buy your argument. He just hasn't- not since the day he was drafted.

In your scenario, the fact that Mesoraco has sucked for two years prior to this "hypothetical 2010 draft" cannot be ignored in evaluating his performance going forward.

Benihana
07-31-2009, 12:26 PM
FWIW, if anyone here is asserting that he should have gone to college, I agree.

I don't know that I do. If the point is that he was pyrite from the get-go after putting up huge numbers in a boondocks Pennsylvania high school league, I'm not sure what college would have done for him.

From a developmental standpoint, going to college isn't that different than playing in the Rookie Leagues. In fact, you could argue that the latter is more helpful, as it teaches you to hit with a wood bat. And you might also benefit from the professional instruction.

I can't imagine going to college would have improved his draft status at all, and as a result, he'd be a whole lot poorer financially for having done so.

However if you are arguing that he should have gone to college because his future career is not as a major league baseball player, you may be on to something. ;)

Benihana
07-31-2009, 12:28 PM
Where will Fleury be next year? Top college catcher, fourth rounder; he's at Billings and, last time I looked, struggling mightily. UNC's catcher from last year, Fedorowicz, high draft of the RedSox last year, is somebody I watch at High A in the Carolina league; last time I noticed his OPS was below .600. Just from a rough check of the Sarasota roster, looked to me like the median age for our FSL pitchers is about 25. Wouldn't surprise me if a very ordinary 25 year old pitcher could fool the s--- out of a kid two years out of high school baseball just learning to use a wooden bat--a pitcher that, with another year of familiarity, he'll absolutely kill. In short, I think it might be said that Mes (and I'll add I was no fan of the draft pick, nor of Krivsky's drafts generally) is more than one level higher than he might be, that all the sample sizes are far too small at this point to mean much of anything, that if he's been promoted much faster than Frazier it might be because somebody besides just Wayne sees something very impressive in the kid, and that really about the only thing for us to keep an eye on at this point is whether he's improving.

Top college catcher? He was a fourth round pick. That's a far cry from the #15 pick overall.

Top college catchers are guys like Buster Posey and Matt Weiters. Where will they be next year?

BuckeyeRedleg
07-31-2009, 12:42 PM
Again, you are assuming something in your hypothetical scenarios that just doesn't hold. If Mesoraco demonstrated a skill set in the last 2+ years in the organization that could convince me that he'd have a chance at being an "all-world catcher out of college" or a "high draft pick in 2010" then I'd buy your argument. He just hasn't- not since the day he was drafted.

In your scenario, the fact that Mesoraco has sucked for two years prior to this "hypothetical 2010 draft" cannot be ignored in evaluating his performance going forward.

And AGAIN, you are missing my point. I wasn't saying he'd be a top college catcher had he gone to college. My point was that ANY top college catcher starts out at A (where he is) or Low A.

My point is that he is playing at a level that is right at or above where he'd be starting out in 2010, IF he came out of college. To speculate whether the kid would be a stud in college is pure conjecture and nobody really knows for sure. Some guys go crazy with aluminum and can't hit wood. I do think he's demonstrated decent power for a kid coming out of HS. In his first 600+ PA's, he's hit 17 HR's at a level higher than he's be playing in college. Personally, if you put a gun to my head, I'd bet he would do fine in college and by year three (2010) would be a top 5 round pick.

I'm not sure we're in much disagreement here, other than I think there is still hope. I'm not arguing that the kid has been great to this point. I have been disappointed as well and was never in favor of the pick. But it is what it is now, and I was just trying to see some glimmer of hope.

Benihana
07-31-2009, 12:52 PM
I'm not sure we're in much disagreement here, other than I think there is still hope. I'm not arguing that the kid has been great to this point. I have been disappointed as well and was never in favor of the pick. But it is what it is now, and I was just trying to see some glimmer of hope.

I agree, I hope he can turn into a serviceable big leaguer. But I highly doubt he'll ever live up to his status as a Top 15 pick, and therefore by definition I do think he'll be a bust.

Scrap Irony
07-31-2009, 01:05 PM
Any pick that makes the majors is a good pick, regardless of where they were picked. Except perhaps the top five in each draft.

That's where baseball's draft is different than other sports.

traderumor
07-31-2009, 01:16 PM
C and SS are both blackholes in this org. and there is no evidence that anything is changing anytime soon. But, we do have a Hanigan/Tatum tandem going for us.

M2
07-31-2009, 01:24 PM
C and SS are both blackholes in this org. and there is no evidence that anything is changing anytime soon. But, we do have a Hanigan/Tatum tandem going for us.

Cozart's had a semi-Denorfian bounce back after his initial struggles in pro ball, which were mighty. I don't know that he profiles as a full-time SS, but he looks to be better than Janish, which could make him a reasonable utility IF.

HokieRed
07-31-2009, 01:26 PM
Top college catcher? He was a fourth round pick. That's a far cry from the #15 pick overall.

Top college catchers are guys like Buster Posey and Matt Weiters. Where will they be next year?


Note I said above that I thought Mes was overdrafted, I didn't like the draft, I think most of what Krivsky did in the draft has been highly overrated by too optimistic RZers. I said Fleury is a top college catcher; nobody got Wieters or Posey witn a 15th pick either. Fleury was drafted in the top five rounds out of an absolutely top line college program. He's a top college catcher. Mes is outperforming him currently at two levels higher in the minor leagues. I just don't think we have anything that's terribly meaningful data about Mes. What's meaningful data about a kid two years out of high school baseball facing much more experienced pitchers? I'd suggest that under such circumstances the meaning of the data, as well as its meaningfulness itself, is changing nearly every day as Mes becomes more experienced.

dougdirt
07-31-2009, 01:35 PM
Devin will be fine if he keeps doing what he is doing right now and has been for the last 3 months. Throwing runners out, walking half as often as he strikes out and post a .163 IsoP will get it done.

Benihana
07-31-2009, 02:03 PM
Note I said above that I thought Mes was overdrafted, I didn't like the draft, I think most of what Krivsky did in the draft has been highly overrated by too optimistic RZers. I said Fleury is a top college catcher; nobody got Wieters or Posey witn a 15th pick either. Fleury was drafted in the top five rounds out of an absolutely top line college program. He's a top college catcher. Mes is outperforming him currently at two levels higher in the minor leagues.

Wow, 49 AB- great sample size!


I just don't think we have anything that's terribly meaningful data about Mes. What's meaningful data about a kid two years out of high school baseball facing much more experienced pitchers? I'd suggest that under such circumstances the meaning of the data, as well as its meaningfulness itself, is changing nearly every day as Mes becomes more experienced.

Are you trying to set the world record for meaningful uses of the word meaningful?

Kingspoint
08-04-2009, 08:46 PM
They always say that catchers take longer to develop, so let's hope that Devin keeps his OPS going the right way.

They say that because they are talking about a catcher's defense. It has nothing to do with the development of their offense.

Kingspoint
08-04-2009, 08:55 PM
And AGAIN, you are missing my point. I wasn't saying he'd be a top college catcher had he gone to college. My point was that ANY top college catcher starts out at A (where he is) or Low A.



Mitch Canham was taken in the supplemental 1st Round the same year as Mesoraco having just led his team to back-to-back College World Series Titles. Canham started out where you say (he was a 5-year College player). He's in AA now, and OPS's .800 in June and .975 in July. But, he's not throwing out any runners now or at any level so far in the pros.

He's one of only a handful of catchers who called all his own games in College, good enough to win two World Series Titles while he was at it, so he had an advantage over many others entering pro ball. How well he's doing at calling games for San Antonio and for Lake Elsinore last year, I don't know.

We took Mesoraco because he's young, and won't have any bad habits. The REDS get to train him the way they want to train a pro. I'm looking forward to what product comes out of him in the year 2012 and 2013. I'm not expecting anything from him at the Major League level until after that.

It's just so early with him.

Edd Roush
08-05-2009, 07:35 AM
All this should be put to rest next year. He will (hopefully) repeat High A, and it will be put up or shut up time in terms of his ability to hit (not to mention his defense.)


I agree with this statement whole-heartedly. This view will be enhanced as well if our high A franchise moves out of the FSL and into Lynchburg. Playing in a pitcher-neutral league rather than a pitching-favoring league will allow us to get a good barometer of Mes's bat and we can start making assessments in July of next year (injuries permitting).

I really hope we get out of the FSL next year and on into the future. I hate seeing pitchers stats inflated and wondering to what to degree as well as hitters stats deflated and wondering to what degree. At this point, all of the peripherals should look much more in line with the slash lines than they do in the FSL.

princeton
08-05-2009, 08:25 AM
They say that because they are talking about a catcher's defense. It has nothing to do with the development of their offense.

actually, they're usually talking about offense. young catchers are so banged up that they don't get good offensive reps that they need to develop quickly.

RED VAN HOT
08-05-2009, 03:12 PM
Offensively, his month to month improvement has been impressive. Yes, his overall average suggests he should repeat high A. I believe, however, that he could start at AA if he continues to improve in August. He seems to be on a fast track. A repeat of high A would also block the advancement of others within a system that needs to graduate catchers.

The answer to the thread question depends a lot on one's expectations. A ML catcher who hits .250 with 15-20 HRs and above average defense would be worth the number 1 pick.

nemesis
08-05-2009, 03:55 PM
The answer to the thread question depends a lot on one's expectations. A ML catcher who hits .250 with 15-20 HRs and above average defense would be worth the number 1 pick.

+1 Absolutly. Jason Vartiek says hello.

dougdirt
08-06-2009, 12:46 AM
Don't look now but Devin has now thrown out over 30% of the attempted base stealers against him this season. Since Mid May he is now at 47% (22 of 47).

Kingspoint
08-06-2009, 09:06 PM
young catchers are so banged up that they don't get good offensive reps that they need to develop quickly.

That might be, but they keep them around High-A and AA for longer periods because it's at those two levels where they learn the majority of their defensive signal calling. It's common for 95% of them to spend 3-4 years at those two levels for that purpose alone.

Kingspoint
08-06-2009, 09:07 PM
Don't look now but Devin has now thrown out over 30% of the attempted base stealers against him this season. Since Mid May he is now at 47% (22 of 47).

Don't know how well he's doing at signal calling, but that's impressive...very impressive. Mesoraco is ahead of the curve at this point of his career in that area. The kid's obviously's got a gun.

Benihana
08-07-2009, 09:41 AM
Offensively, his month to month improvement has been impressive. Yes, his overall average suggests he should repeat high A. I believe, however, that he could start at AA if he continues to improve in August. He seems to be on a fast track. A repeat of high A would also block the advancement of others within a system that needs to graduate catchers.

No chance. D-Mes has been overpromoted enough already. He needs to repeat high A next year, no matter what he does in the last month of the season.


The answer to the thread question depends a lot on one's expectations. A ML catcher who hits .250 with 15-20 HRs and above average defense would be worth the number 1 pick.

Of course- I think everyone on this board (and in the Reds organization) would happily take that from D-Mes. As of this point in time, it looks questionable at best as to whether he'll be able to provide that. That said of course, there is still plenty of time.

I'd just like to see him put up a .750 OPS once (at any level.)

HokieRed
08-07-2009, 10:23 AM
I don't know that he's been overpromoted at all. He's beginning to hold his own offensively at Sarasota and, as Doug has shown, he's making clear progress on his defense. In fact, it's entirely possible they put him at Sarasota instead of Dayton because they thought it would be easier for him to learn to catch with more experienced pitchers--and ones they weren't trying to teach as much new stuff. Placing guys in the minor leagues is not as simple as looking at their offensive stats and then making a call about where they belong.

Benihana
08-07-2009, 10:36 AM
I don't know that he's been overpromoted at all. He's beginning to hold his own offensively at Sarasota and, as Doug has shown, he's making clear progress on his defense. In fact, it's entirely possible they put him at Sarasota instead of Dayton because they thought it would be easier for him to learn to catch with more experienced pitchers--and ones they weren't trying to teach as much new stuff. Placing guys in the minor leagues is not as simple as looking at their offensive stats and then making a call about where they belong.

Ask any scout in the game. They'll tell you he's been overpromoted.

princeton
08-07-2009, 10:44 AM
Ask any scout in the game. They'll tell you he's been overpromoted.


I advocate challenging hitters, myself. And DMes's main attribute was always his bat. he's in the right place offensively. as he climbs the ladder, I think that he'll need a lot of time at AAA defensively.

Zack Cozart is another player that has been aggressively promoted and has really responded offensively. I think that Reds should call up Cozart in September for a look-see, but I think that they'll cite the fact that he doesn't have to be protected for another year and won't advance him. Probably that's the best for Cozart long-term, but Reds really need a shortstop.

HokieRed
08-07-2009, 11:07 AM
Ask any scout in the game. They'll tell you he's been overpromoted.


How many have seen him?

Benihana
08-07-2009, 11:11 AM
I advocate challenging hitters, myself. And DMes's main attribute was always his bat. he's in the right place offensively. as he climbs the ladder, I think that he'll need a lot of time at AAA defensively.

Zack Cozart is another player that has been aggressively promoted and has really responded offensively. I think that Reds should call up Cozart in September for a look-see, but I think that they'll cite the fact that he doesn't have to be protected for another year and won't advance him. Probably that's the best for Cozart long-term, but Reds really need a shortstop.

I like challenging hitters too. But there's a difference between challenging a hitter and promoting someone before they have shown any ability to hit (let alone play defense) in a lower league. Cozart came from a major college program and has put up back to back OPS of .785. That's pretty different than coming from a podunk high school and putting up OPS of .580, .710, and .680 respectively.

There are many players from the SEC that have made the majors by the time they are Cozart's age. I don't know if anyone from Mesoraco's county has ever played professional ball. Big difference.

As far as challenging hitters goes, I think that Todd Frazier and Cody Puckett should have been promoted months ago.

BRM
08-07-2009, 11:20 AM
As far as challenging hitters goes, I think that Todd Frazier and Cody Puckett should have been promoted months ago.

Anytime I see situations like Frazier's and Puckett's, I immediately assume they are being shined up for trades.

Benihana
08-07-2009, 11:23 AM
Anytime I see situations like Frazier's and Puckett's, I immediately assume they are being shined up for trades.

I thought that about Travis Wood as well, and then they went ahead and traded the guy who was promoted faster than anyone (Stewart).

The moral of the story? Who the hell knows what's going on in the minds of this FO.

princeton
08-07-2009, 11:47 AM
Anytime I see situations like Frazier's and Puckett's, I immediately assume they are being shined up for trades.

you can't get anything for Puckett

Frazier's nothing more than a throw-in because his own team does not seem to believe in him. no reason to hold him back because he can be a throw-in even if he wasn't hitting.

I don't mind putting brakes on pitchers. Coddle them, I say.

HokieRed
08-07-2009, 01:39 PM
I thought that about Travis Wood as well, and then they went ahead and traded the guy who was promoted faster than anyone (Stewart).

The moral of the story? Who the hell knows what's going on in the minds of this FO.

Is it possible Stewart's rapid promotion was to create attention prior to a trade--on the principle that it's the moving object that gets noticed?

dougdirt
08-07-2009, 01:43 PM
I like challenging hitters too. But there's a difference between challenging a hitter and promoting someone before they have shown any ability to hit (let alone play defense) in a lower league. Cozart came from a major college program and has put up back to back OPS of .785. That's pretty different than coming from a podunk high school and putting up OPS of .580, .710, and .680 respectively.


Numbers don't tell you whats going on. They tell you the results of situations, but not what happened to get to those results. Mesoraco has not seemed like he has been overwhelmed at all at the plate if we look at his walks, his strikeouts, his power or even his defense.

He has a 9.9% walk rate. No problems there.
He has a 21.3% strikeout rate. Not a real problem there.
He has a .153 isolated power. Not a problem there.
He has a 20% line drive rate. Not a problem there.
He has thrown out 30% of the base stealers against him this year. Not a problem there.

The slash line doesn't look the best. Its also a tough league to hit in and he has been bit by a .276 BABIP despite the 4th best line drive rate in the league. What is likely to carry forward with him, his peripherals or his stat line? I am taking the peripherals and they all look solid or better.

Benihana
08-07-2009, 01:44 PM
Is it possible Stewart's rapid promotion was to create attention prior to a trade--on the principle that it's the moving object that gets noticed?

I don't think so.

camisadelgolf
08-07-2009, 03:01 PM
Nine players have 200+ plate appearances for the Sarasota Reds, and amongst them, Devin Mesoraco leads them all in OPS. Mesoraco might not be impressing everyone with his stick, but he's doing better than all the other regulars in Sarasota.

Benihana
08-07-2009, 03:14 PM
Nine players have 200+ plate appearances for the Sarasota Reds, and amongst them, Devin Mesoraco leads them all in OPS. Mesoraco might not be impressing everyone with his stick, but he's doing better than all the other regulars in Sarasota.

That's more of an indictment of the players on the Sarasota roster than anything else. Neftali Soto and Alex Buchholz coming off an injury were also overpromoted, and no one else there could even be considered a prospect. So in the words of Shania Twain "That don't impress me much!"

GIDP
08-07-2009, 03:17 PM
Ban this guy for getting that song now stuck in my head.

camisadelgolf
08-07-2009, 03:43 PM
Ban this guy for getting that song now stuck in my head.

Benihana
08-12-2009, 11:54 AM
Has anyone else noticed that Mesoraco has put up an astonishingly consistent .311 OBP in all three of his minor league seasons so far?

Weird.

Does anyone else know anything of Devin's retirement talk? Also, I didn't realize Rafael Gonzaelz had retired.

redsmetz
08-12-2009, 12:37 PM
Has anyone else noticed that Mesoraco has put up an astonishingly consistent .311 OBP in all three of his minor league seasons so far?

Weird.

Does anyone else know anything of Devin's retirement talk?

Mesoraco's talking about retirement? I did see he went on the DL yesterday. What's up with that? I must have missed something.

Homer Bailey
08-12-2009, 12:47 PM
Mesoraco's talking about retirement? I did see he went on the DL yesterday. What's up with that? I must have missed something.

I'm yet to see any reliable source relay that (EDIT) rumor. Just a heads up.

redsmetz
08-12-2009, 12:55 PM
I'm yet to see any reliable source relay that information. Just a heads up.

Which info?

BRM
08-12-2009, 12:57 PM
Which info?

Mesoraco contemplating retirement. No credible source on that "rumor".

princeton
08-12-2009, 01:26 PM
Has anyone else noticed that Mesoraco has put up an astonishingly consistent .311 OBP in all three of his minor league seasons so far?

perpetual Groundhog Day by our #1 woodchuck.

Highlifeman21
08-12-2009, 01:36 PM
Man, that would be hilarious if Mesoraco retired....

GIDP
08-12-2009, 01:39 PM
Man, that would be hilarious if Mesoraco retired....

I can just hear you now.

Homer Bailey
08-12-2009, 02:49 PM
Mesoraco contemplating retirement. No credible source on that "rumor".

Thanks. Edited.

REDblooded
08-12-2009, 03:11 PM
trying to get Callis to answer about Mesoraco on the ESPN chat, but no bites yet...

dougdirt
08-12-2009, 03:11 PM
I just talked to Tom Nichols, who was the one who 'said it'. He didn't say it. He actually laughed about it. The 'friend' who claims they heard it is either making stuff up or should get their hearing checked.

REDblooded
08-12-2009, 03:12 PM
I just talked to Tom Nichols, who was the one who 'said it'. He didn't say it. He actually laughed about it. The 'friend' who claims they heard it is either making stuff up or should get their hearing checked.

thanks for clearing up the air Doug... Any word as to what the injury is then?

JayBruceFan
08-13-2009, 12:30 AM
Looks like I got some bad information

Sorry Guys

Edd Roush
08-13-2009, 09:00 AM
Looks like I got some bad information

Sorry Guys

It's much better to have bad information on bad news than it is on good news. ;)

fearofpopvol1
07-03-2010, 06:44 PM
Good times

JayBruceFan
07-04-2010, 06:34 PM
Looks like I was wrong big time.

Haha

bullringer
12-01-2011, 03:51 AM
I was just wondering if M2 and benihana still frequented this board. ;)

mth123
12-01-2011, 06:26 AM
I didn't comment in this thread back then, but at the time I certainly thought that Mesoraco was looking like a bust. His development has been a wonderful thing for the Reds' organization. Kudos to the Reds for knowing what they had. Kudos to Doug for his right on analysis of Mes situation.

Benihana
12-01-2011, 12:52 PM
I was just wondering if M2 and benihana still frequented this board. ;)

Yep I'm around and always have been. While Doug was certainly more right than I and deserves credit for that, I pretty much stand behind my analysis (on this thread) at the time.

Mesoraco surprised almost everyone (including Baseball America and 90% of this board- probably not even his biggest fans expected such a dramatic turnaround) with his turnaround in 2010, certainly myself included. Still believe my analysis based off of facts at the time was pretty sound. I always said there was still time for him to turn it around (which there was), that he'd been terrible his first two years in pro ball (which he was), that he wouldn't have been a first round pick in the 2010 draft (which he wouldn't have), that he should repeat High A in 2010 (which he did) and that 2010 would be a make-or-break year for him (which it was). Fortunately for all of us as Reds fans, he turned 2010 into a massive turnaround opportunity, starting in High A.

lollipopcurve
12-01-2011, 12:58 PM
I like to see old threads about prospects bumped. Keeps us all honest.

Edd Roush
12-01-2011, 02:42 PM
I wanted to wait on Mes in 2009 and he certainly made me look intelligent. I hope he can continue his progress in 2012 and be one of those rare rookies who makes a major impact on their team. If Mes could OPS 800 next year in 400+ PAs next year, he will be a major boon to this team.

dougdirt
12-01-2011, 05:45 PM
and that 2010 would be a make-or-break year for him (which it was).

I still don't think that 2010 was a make or break year for him. We will never know because of how it turned out, but I doubt that it was that extreme.