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Benihana
06-24-2009, 04:15 PM
It is now June 24, more than two weeks after the draft and less than three weeks from the ASB. The rookie league seasons have begun and the first half of the minor league seasons are over. The following players should be promoted immediately IMO.

RHP Homer Bailey to Cincinnati
CF Drew Stubbs to Cincinnati
CF Chris Heisey to Louisville
3B Todd Frazier to Louisville
LHP Travis Wood to Louisville
LHP Matt Fairel to Sarasota

Homer Bailey
06-24-2009, 04:18 PM
Wood I would like to see a bit more before he is promoted, and also Fairel. However, I can't disagree with any of the other moves (assuming WT is either DFA's, sent to minors, or DL'd.

bucksfan2
06-24-2009, 04:19 PM
RHP Homer Bailey to Cincinnati - Going to happen

CF Drew Stubbs to Cincinnati - Should happen but I don't see it until late August or early Sept.

CF Chris Heisey to Louisville - Will happen when Stubbs gets promoted

3B Todd Frazier to Louisville - Whats the rush? I expect him to be a Red middle of 2010. So I don't see the need for an immediate promotion.

LHP Travis Wood to Louisville - I would leave him in AA ball all season long. AA seems to be where the best prospects are. AAA seems to be the waiting period for the bigs as well as your AAAA players.

LHP Matt Fairel to Sarasota - Don't know enough about him to comment.

TRF
06-24-2009, 04:33 PM
Stubbs absolutely should NOT be promoted until Sept at the earliest. 2010 should be his timetable, and I'm starting to buy into him a bit. but lets see how he does in the second half. It'll be the first time he's done a full season at one level since LowA.

Heisey same thing. Louisville at the end of the season and AAA starter next year.

Frazier to Louisville is ok with me.

Wood, no, but Fairel yes. The FSL won't hurt Fairel.

OnBaseMachine
06-24-2009, 04:35 PM
Heisey appears to be on his way to Louisville later this week. Good move, IMO.

Kc61
06-24-2009, 04:39 PM
My assumption is there will be movement upwards for several of these guys in the next several days. There is still plenty of time in the minor league season for guys to get a taste at a higher level.

IMO Heisey should move up regardless whether Stubbs stays at AAA. They can play different outfield positions, doesn't have to be centerfield only.

Frazier probably stays at AA to play third while Francisco is out. When Francisco comes back, Frazier should move up. He should play 3B and LF at AAA and get ready for a major league callup in 2010.

As for the pitchers, when Bailey goes to the Reds this weekend, I'd guess Wood goes to AAA to take his place. Wood has had a full year at AA now, is dominating, I'd let him get his feet wet at AAA.

Later in the summer, I'd like to see Cozart moved up to AAA to face some more experienced pitching. Cozart has become an important prospect for the Reds, their best hope in the org for that key SS position, and I would try to advance him fairly soon.

bucksfan2
06-24-2009, 04:51 PM
Stubbs absolutely should NOT be promoted until Sept at the earliest. 2010 should be his timetable, and I'm starting to buy into him a bit. but lets see how he does in the second half. It'll be the first time he's done a full season at one level since LowA.

Why exactly?

He has very good strike zone judgment and can play top notch CF defense. Those two things will help him greatly when he makes the jump from AAA to the bigs. He may struggle to get a hit but throughout his entire minor league career he has found a way to get to 1b. Its something the Reds don't have right now at the MLB level.

BuckeyeRedleg
06-24-2009, 04:54 PM
It is now June 24, more than two weeks after the draft and less than three weeks from the ASB. The rookie league seasons have begun and the first half of the minor league seasons are over. The following players should be promoted immediately IMO.

RHP Homer Bailey to Cincinnati
CF Drew Stubbs to Cincinnati
CF Chris Heisey to Louisville
3B Todd Frazier to Louisville
LHP Travis Wood to Louisville
LHP Matt Fairel to Sarasota

Agree x 6.

Benihana
06-24-2009, 05:09 PM
My assumption is there will be movement upwards for several of these guys in the next several days. There is still plenty of time in the minor league season for guys to get a taste at a higher level.

IMO Heisey should move up regardless whether Stubbs stays at AAA. They can play different outfield positions, doesn't have to be centerfield only.

Frazier probably stays at AA to play third while Francisco is out. When Francisco comes back, Frazier should move up. He should play 3B and LF at AAA and get ready for a major league callup in 2010.

As for the pitchers, when Bailey goes to the Reds this weekend, I'd guess Wood goes to AAA to take his place. Wood has had a full year at AA now, is dominating, I'd let him get his feet wet at AAA.

Later in the summer, I'd like to see Cozart moved up to AAA to face some more experienced pitching. Cozart has become an important prospect for the Reds, their best hope in the org for that key SS position, and I would try to advance him fairly soon.

Agree with most of this. Cozart and Avery are two guys I'd like to see moved up by the end of the summer, assuming they continue to produce. Cozart may move up once Sutton gets a shot with the Reds, and Valaika slides over to 2B in Louisville. Avery has pitched well in Carolina and deserves a look in Louisville before the end of the year, as his status could be in limbo heading into 2010.

TRF
06-24-2009, 05:23 PM
Why exactly?

He has very good strike zone judgment and can play top notch CF defense. Those two things will help him greatly when he makes the jump from AAA to the bigs. He may struggle to get a hit but throughout his entire minor league career he has found a way to get to 1b. Its something the Reds don't have right now at the MLB level.

until very recently, he'd been having a good season. I'm not sold though. In his minor league career he's struggled whenever he was at any level for any length of time. The Reds masked it with promotions last season. He was flat dominated at High A, and the same thing was starting to happen at AA before he was promoted again. From all accounts he an elite defender, and I can accept that for fact. But at the plate I think he needs some development. It is in his best interest and the Reds to keep him at Louisville to continue that learning curve.

Here is another reason why. The only reason to bring him to the Reds is to make him a starter. There isn't a need for him to do be that right now. CF SHOULD belong to Dickerson. LF a Nix/Gomes strict platoon, until Frazier or the surging Dorn take over.

There is a real chance Stubbs could come to the Reds this week and be an immediate success, and he could also flop. Dickerson has proven at the major league level that he can play the position and hit MLB pitching.

It would be one thing if Stubbs dominated and stromed his way through the minor league system, but he hasn't.

Benihana
06-24-2009, 05:29 PM
until very recently, he'd been having a good season. I'm not sold though. In his minor league career he's struggled whenever he was at any level for any length of time. The Reds masked it with promotions last season. He was flat dominated at High A, and the same thing was starting to happen at AA before he was promoted again. From all accounts he an elite defender, and I can accept that for fact. But at the plate I think he needs some development. It is in his best interest and the Reds to keep him at Louisville to continue that learning curve.

Here is another reason why. The only reason to bring him to the Reds is to make him a starter. There isn't a need for him to do be that right now. CF SHOULD belong to Dickerson. LF a Nix/Gomes strict platoon, until Frazier or the surging Dorn take over.

There is a real chance Stubbs could come to the Reds this week and be an immediate success, and he could also flop. Dickerson has proven at the major league level that he can play the position and hit MLB pitching.

It would be one thing if Stubbs dominated and stromed his way through the minor league system, but he hasn't.

Disagree. Challenge thy hitters. Stubbs turns 25 soon and has hit very well in AAA over a few months. There's no reason why CF in Cincinnati shouldn't be a platoon right now between Stubbs and Dickerson, who has a decidedly low OPS against lefties (though I'll admit, the sample size has been tiny.) That way, you can ease either one into a potential full-time starting role in 2010.

BRM
06-24-2009, 05:39 PM
Stubbs absolutely should NOT be promoted until Sept at the earliest. 2010 should be his timetable, and I'm starting to buy into him a bit.

:shocked:

lollipopcurve
06-24-2009, 05:47 PM
LF a Nix/Gomes strict platoon, until Frazier or the surging Dorn take over.

Dorn is not going to be the Reds left fielder. He's an overrated prospect on this board, in my opinion. He's a one dimensional guy -- he hits righties. Other prospects -- and Nix ands Dickerson, at the major league level -- are better rounded players.

TRF
06-24-2009, 05:59 PM
:shocked:

I'm a production guy. If he produces, he has value.

This is the first time he's produced for a length of time exceeding two months since the second half of the season at Dayton, 2007.

He was pwned at High A

He wasn't any better at AA, but started to heat up a bit before being promoted to AAA.

He had a nice 75 AB's at AAA last year.

But he was tired when he got to the AFL. Funny that Frazier wasn't tired in the HWL.

I think log term IF he's really a top prospect, he has to prove it against teams that have seen him more than once. Let the IL face him in the second half, or move him now while his trade value is high. True, he might come to the bigs and do very well. or if he's not developed properly, he goes all Delmon Young on the league, be a good to great talent WITHOUT the proper training.

RED VAN HOT
06-24-2009, 06:01 PM
I think the Reds need to be in a position to evaluate how well several players can contribute to next year's team. I am tired of hedging by signing a number of middle of the road ML free agents who then end up blocking the progress of minor league players who could have a higher upside.

The Reds need to evaluate Cozart, as SS is their greatest need. If he is not ready next year, then they will need to get one. Send him to AAA in July.

There is a slightly less critical need to evaluate Frasier at 3B. I am not ready to pencil in EE for next year. They need to know if Frasier can be a valid plan B.

WT is not doing what they got him for. A Stubbs/Dickerson platoon could hardly do worse. Give Stubbs a shot. He is safely out of super 2 territory.

Although Nix/Gomes is looking pretty good now, neither is under contract for next year. The Reds will need to determine whether to resign them. Dorn is starting to hit. The remainder of the AAA season should be sufficient to evaluate him. Heisey needs to see AAA pitching. I can't help but notice the increase in power for Heisey this year. In prior years he a HR every 46 ABs. This year it is one every 20. If he is blocked in CF by Stubbs, he could conceivably be a corner OF'er. Also, if not 3B, Frasier would also provide an OF option.

Pitching is a less critical need for next year. Wood is young. We can afford to go slowly with him. IF Bailey sticks, bring Wood up to AAA in August.

OnBaseMachine
06-24-2009, 06:03 PM
Here comes another 10 page Drew Stubbs thread.

BRM
06-24-2009, 06:04 PM
Here comes another 10 page Drew Stubbs thread.

I hope not. I was just giving TRF some crap. Didn't mean to hijack the thread.

TRF
06-24-2009, 06:05 PM
I hope not. I was just giving TRF some crap. Didn't mean to hijack the thread.

don't want it to be that, so i'm done with the thread.

Benihana
06-24-2009, 07:33 PM
Dorn is not going to be the Reds left fielder. He's an overrated prospect on this board, in my opinion. He's a one dimensional guy -- he hits righties. Other prospects -- and Nix ands Dickerson, at the major league level -- are better rounded players.

Agreed, he might make a good LH-pinch hitter, that's about it IMO.

Scrap Irony
06-24-2009, 08:03 PM
I think Dorn could be a cheap, productive LH part of a platoon. 290/375/500 is really solid production and Dorn is capable (or has shown he's capable in the past) of that line.

He's been horrible for two months in AAA, but good this month. I expect he closes the year closer to his career numbers and some of those outside the organization take notice.

He'd be a great target for a small market team looking for cheap production from a corner OF spot.

Know any of those teams?

Redmachine2003
06-24-2009, 11:01 PM
What has Stubbs Done to deserve to be Promoted? .284 avg. 2 homers 20 RBIs 26 runs scored. Is that worthy of being promoted?

Scrap Irony
06-24-2009, 11:09 PM
The Gold Glove caliber defense and the near 30 steals help.

chicoruiz
06-25-2009, 12:13 AM
He's a one dimensional guy -- he hits righties.

That's a pretty good one dimension to have, as I have noticed that a goodly number of major league pitchers throw with that particular hand...

Redmachine2003
06-25-2009, 01:14 AM
The Gold Glove caliber defense and the near 30 steals help.

A cheap version of Willy T. I still say he has more to prove in AAA.

cincyinco
06-25-2009, 03:50 AM
don't want it to be that, so i'm done with the thread.

Why? You can see where the conversation was heading, so let's just let it be.. But I still appreciate your view on the subject, even though I don't agree with it.

I like the progress he has shown but I agree that he needs to stay at AAA until Sept at the earliest. I'd like to see him sustain some continued success. I feel the same way with homer and his new splitter as well, but... Sounds like the reds have other ideas.

As for cozart.. I don't get the idea of promoting him so fast... He already skipped a level..I would let him play out at AA.. Maybe a late season promotion, unless something drastic pushes up his timetable..

I'm usually aggressive with how I feel prospects should be promoted, but in these 3 cases in particular, I think its important they sustain their level of play over the course of the season @ theire respective levels.

In homer's case, let him dominate another month.. He's never done it @ the AAA level really... Not like he is currently.

Stubb's, we've been over. He's raw and TRF has outlined the other reasons..
Cozart, already skipped a level.. Bat has always been suspect a little bit.. Let him hit all year.


Sorry to ramble.

CesarGeronimo
06-25-2009, 09:46 AM
A cheap version of Willy T. I still say he has more to prove in AAA.

The difference, besides Stubbs' greater potential for the future, is that Stubbs takes walks - he gets on base. A cheap version of Willy T. would be someone who does not walk, has a low OBP and has trouble getting a good break on balls in the outfield.

bucksfan2
06-25-2009, 10:52 AM
A cheap version of Willy T. I still say he has more to prove in AAA.

Couldn't be further from the truth. Stubbs has great strike zone judgment. His ability to get on base really hasn't slumped much. I think I differ from TRF in the fact that I don't have a problem "rushing" him to the bigs because I feel he can keep his OBP at a respectful level. He may never hit for the power that some had expected when he was at Texas and lower in the minors but he has the ability to turn a walk into a double or triple with his speed.

IMO AA ball is the real proving ground for most prospects. I would keep Cozart there because there really isn't a need to move him up to AAA ball right now.

dougdirt
06-25-2009, 11:57 AM
I keep hearing the call for Stubbs. Dare I say I am with TRF that I leave him down for a while still? Not that I think he has a lot to prove down there, but why make the move when he isn't likely an upgrade to Chris Dickerson right now who is already on the roster?

Benihana
06-25-2009, 11:59 AM
I keep hearing the call for Stubbs. Dare I say I am with TRF that I leave him down for a while still? Not that I think he has a lot to prove down there, but why make the move when he isn't likely an upgrade to Chris Dickerson right now who is already on the roster?

The point would be to platoon him with Dickerson. When you look at Dickerson's splits against lefties, they are no great shakes. This way, you can ease Stubbs in as well, only starting him against lefties.

I think out of all the guys I listed, Stubbs is the least urgent promotion. However if he is going to remain in Louisville, I'd like to at least see him get some reps in the leadoff position, which is his likely spot in the big league lineup.

dougdirt
06-25-2009, 12:02 PM
The point would be to platoon him with Dickerson. When you look at Dickerson's splits against lefties, they are no great shakes. This way, you can ease Stubbs in as well, only starting him against lefties.

I think out of all the guys I listed, Stubbs is the least urgent promotion. However if he is going to remain in Louisville, I'd like to at least see him get some reps in the leadoff position, which is his likely spot in the big league lineup.
There is no reason to call up one of your top hitting prospects to 'ease him in'. All that is likely to do is slow down the time in which he is ready to play full time, especially if he is starting 2 nights a week in which you happen to get a lefty on the mound.

Benihana
06-25-2009, 12:43 PM
There is no reason to call up one of your top hitting prospects to 'ease him in'. All that is likely to do is slow down the time in which he is ready to play full time, especially if he is starting 2 nights a week in which you happen to get a lefty on the mound.

I'm not sure if Stubbs is really a "top hitting prospect." I would consider him more of a "top fielding prospect" that isn't bad with the stick. I think he would provide value to the Reds this year with his glove, and at the same time get a feel for major league pitching. Like Bruce, he's going to have growing pains- probably much worse than Bruce. Like Bailey (and Bruce), I'd rather go through those now while you're not in contention vs. next season when you (hopefully) are- and the team needs you to step up and contribute in a major way.

Finally, and I acknowledge that this is very low on the priority list for reasons to promote Stubbs, but it does create an opening for Heisey, who certainly doesn't have anything left to prove in AA. That said, my hope is that they sell high and package Heisey at the deadline before promoting him (and possibly exposing a weakness.) If they don't move Heisey in the next month, he has to be in Louisville immediately- and it is becoming more apparent every day that he'll only get there once they promote Stubbs to Cincy.

BuckeyeRedleg
06-25-2009, 12:47 PM
TOP (non-pitching) prospects:

1. Alonso
2. Frazier
3. Heisey (stock is UP!)
4. Stubbs
5. Soto
6. Cozart (stock is UP!)
7. Francisco
8. Valaika (could be dropping)
9. Mesoraco (needs to get the OPS above .700 in tough hitter's league)
10. Henry
11. Puckett
12. Reed
13. Rojas
14. Sappelt
15. Wiley

Rodriguez, Duran, and Hamilton will filter up this list (hopefully) as they log some playing time in Rookie ball.

SMcGavin
06-25-2009, 12:58 PM
I keep hearing the call for Stubbs. Dare I say I am with TRF that I leave him down for a while still? Not that I think he has a lot to prove down there, but why make the move when he isn't likely an upgrade to Chris Dickerson right now who is already on the roster?

Yeah, that's the thing. Even if you think Stubbs is ready now, an optimistic projection of his current ability is basically a right-handed Dickerson.

Benihana
06-25-2009, 12:58 PM
TOP (non-pitching) prospects:

1. Alonso
2. Frazier
3. Heisey (stock is UP!)
4. Stubbs
5. Soto
6. Cozart (stock is UP!)
7. Francisco
8. Valaika (could be dropping)
9. Mesoraco (needs to get the OPS above .700 in tough hitter's league)
10. Henry
11. Puckett
12. Reed
13. Rojas
14. Sappelt
15. Wiley

Rodriguez, Duran, and Hamilton will filter up this list (hopefully) as they log some playing time in Rookie ball.

Looks pretty good, although I think Alex Buchholz should be on there somewhere, probably ahead of at least a couple of those guys at the bottom of the list.

dougdirt
06-25-2009, 12:58 PM
I'm not sure if Stubbs is really a "top hitting prospect." I would consider him more of a "top fielding prospect" that isn't bad with the stick. I think he would provide value to the Reds this year with his glove, and at the same time get a feel for major league pitching. Like Bruce, he's going to have growing pains- probably much worse than Bruce. Like Bailey (and Bruce), I'd rather go through those now while you're not in contention vs. next season when you (hopefully) are- and the team needs you to step up and contribute in a major way.

Finally, and I acknowledge that this is very low on the priority list for reasons to promote Stubbs, but it does create an opening for Heisey, who certainly doesn't have anything left to prove in AA. That said, my hope is that they sell high and package Heisey at the deadline before promoting him (and possibly exposing a weakness.) If they don't move Heisey in the next month, he has to be in Louisville immediately- and it is becoming more apparent every day that he'll only get there once they promote Stubbs to Cincy.
Well no matter how you want to slice it, he is a top prospect who hits every day. You don't 'ease' those guys into the line up.

As for Heisey having nothing left to prove at AA, I will disagree slightly. His first 200 PA he walked 25 times and struck out just 14 times. His last 80 he has struck out 18 times and walked 7. Certainly a fine ratio by itself, but its a drastic change to what he has been doing. Have pitchers found a weakness to exploit.

bucksfan2
06-25-2009, 01:29 PM
Well no matter how you want to slice it, he is a top prospect who hits every day. You don't 'ease' those guys into the line up.

As for Heisey having nothing left to prove at AA, I will disagree slightly. His first 200 PA he walked 25 times and struck out just 14 times. His last 80 he has struck out 18 times and walked 7. Certainly a fine ratio by itself, but its a drastic change to what he has been doing. Have pitchers found a weakness to exploit.

I tend to agree with this. When Stubbs makes it up to the Reds he is doing so as the starting CF. His defensive abilities as well as his ability to find first base will allow him to hit against both righties and lefties.

IMO the Reds should buy Willy T a plane ticket to Japan and bring Stubbs up to play everyday CF. If he struggles send him back down to AAA with knowledge on what he needs to work on. I don't think the Reds view Dickerson as the answer in CF and I think he should start to get more and more playing time in LF as the season continues.

Benihana
06-25-2009, 01:34 PM
I tend to agree with this. When Stubbs makes it up to the Reds he is doing so as the starting CF. His defensive abilities as well as his ability to find first base will allow him to hit against both righties and lefties.

IMO the Reds should buy Willy T a plane ticket to Japan and bring Stubbs up to play everyday CF. If he struggles send him back down to AAA with knowledge on what he needs to work on. I don't think the Reds view Dickerson as the answer in CF and I think he should start to get more and more playing time in LF as the season continues.

While I like Dickerson, there's no way he'll ever hit enough to be a starting LF on a legitimate team. Same with Heisey IMO. That's why the Reds should make a decision and package at least one of those three for a bigger need. If it was me, I'd sell high on Heisey.

camisadelgolf
06-25-2009, 01:39 PM
I keep hearing the call for Stubbs. Dare I say I am with TRF that I leave him down for a while still? Not that I think he has a lot to prove down there, but why make the move when he isn't likely an upgrade to Chris Dickerson right now who is already on the roster?
Unlike Dickerson, Stubbs doesn't have a .448 OPS against left-handers this year. Still, I wouldn't call up Stubbs unless he's going to play everyday, and with Taveras on the team, I don't see that happening just yet.

dougdirt
06-25-2009, 02:04 PM
While I like Dickerson, there's no way he'll ever hit enough to be a starting LF on a legitimate team. Same with Heisey IMO. That's why the Reds should make a decision and package at least one of those three for a bigger need. If it was me, I'd sell high on Heisey.

I do think its interesting that Heisey is on the futures team. Not that he isn't a fine prospect, but its worth noting that some teams use the Futures Game as a showcase for talent they may want to move.

GOYA
06-25-2009, 02:22 PM
Here are the AAA variables:

Kevin Barker - AA doesn't have a 1B ready to send up - he stays (and he's on fire)
Hopper/McDonald - at least one needs to go to clear a spot for Heisey/Frazier
Luis Bolivar - needs to go when Cozart is ready for AAA (or Frazier if he plays IF)
Brian Peterson - needs to go when Denove is ready for AAA
Adam Pettyjohn - just needs to go. Maybe Ondrusek can take his spot?
Camilo Vazquez - not sure he belongs in AAA
Jeff Kennard - needs to go when a reliever is ready at AA (Lutz?)

Assuming Homer goes to Cincy, the AAA rotation is:

Maloney
Lehr
LeCure
Ramirez
Thompson (soon)

The one guy that is not considered a prospect here is Lehr. IMO, he's simply too good to just cut to make room for Wood. The Reds might use him. 31 isn't that old.

So, looking at the guys in AA ready to come up, there's really one area that isn't blocked by a real prospect and that's the outfield. And I'm not so sure Heisey is ready for AAA anyway.

All this could be solved if Walt would just package some guys up for a needed big league bat.

edit: forgot to mention, Stubbs is not ready to move up.

membengal
06-25-2009, 05:19 PM
Well no matter how you want to slice it, he is a top prospect who hits every day. You don't 'ease' those guys into the line up.

As for Heisey having nothing left to prove at AA, I will disagree slightly. His first 200 PA he walked 25 times and struck out just 14 times. His last 80 he has struck out 18 times and walked 7. Certainly a fine ratio by itself, but its a drastic change to what he has been doing. Have pitchers found a weakness to exploit.

oh good gravy, you're kidding, right, Doug?

I know you love Stubbs, but, c'mon. If you think that is evidence that Heisey has "things to work on" at AA, then Stubbs would never have been promoted from Low A ball. Gracious.

dougdirt
06-25-2009, 05:25 PM
oh good gravy, you're kidding, right, Doug?

I know you love Stubbs, but, c'mon. If you think that is evidence that Heisey has "things to work on" at AA, then Stubbs would never have been promoted from Low A ball. Gracious.

Are you saying a guys strikeout rate tripling after 2 months in a league isn't something that makes you stop and think 'hmm, maybe we should let him work his way out of it at that level'?

It has nothing to do with Stubbs. It has to do with perhaps pitchers finding something to exploit in his swing finally. Obviously its not a huge thing because his strikeout rate is still fine, but its a dramatic difference from the first two months of the season. Of course maybe its just something that Heisey was controlling or not controlling because of something he did. I don't watch him play every day. But something certainly changed in June with his plate appearances, be it self inflicted or something pitchers started noticing.

SMcGavin
06-25-2009, 05:39 PM
I'm happy with the season Stubbs is having but let's not act like he is killing AAA. He is at .284/.369/.393 for the season. That's solid but not exactly knocking down the door, especially for a guy who is 24.

mth123
06-25-2009, 05:48 PM
TOP (non-pitching) prospects:

1. Alonso
2. Frazier
3. Heisey (stock is UP!)
4. Stubbs
5. Soto
6. Cozart (stock is UP!)
7. Francisco
8. Valaika (could be dropping)
9. Mesoraco (needs to get the OPS above .700 in tough hitter's league)
10. Henry
11. Puckett
12. Reed
13. Rojas
14. Sappelt
15. Wiley

Rodriguez, Duran, and Hamilton will filter up this list (hopefully) as they log some playing time in Rookie ball.

Agree with the top 8 (but may bump Cozart ahead of Soto). I'd make Henry 9, Dorn 10, Puckett 11, Rojas 12, Sappelt 13, Wiley 14, Mesoraco 15 and Reed 16

membengal
06-25-2009, 05:50 PM
Are you saying a guys strikeout rate tripling after 2 months in a league isn't something that makes you stop and think 'hmm, maybe we should let him work his way out of it at that level'?

It has nothing to do with Stubbs. It has to do with perhaps pitchers finding something to exploit in his swing finally. Obviously its not a huge thing because his strikeout rate is still fine, but its a dramatic difference from the first two months of the season. Of course maybe its just something that Heisey was controlling or not controlling because of something he did. I don't watch him play every day. But something certainly changed in June with his plate appearances, be it self inflicted or something pitchers started noticing.

I am saying that those same kinds of issues in Stubbs never caused you to raise a flag of "concern". I find it silly. And I love your stuff, but that's a really odd thing to grab onto to say that Heisey, who is doing stuff at AA that Stubbs never came remotely close to, should hang at AA to "work on". That's just ridiculous.

lollipopcurve
06-25-2009, 05:56 PM
There is no question that Heisey should be at AAA, in my opinion. He has dominated the Southern League for half a season. He's 24.

The organization has been slow to promote this summer for some reason. It's an important cog in the development machine, let's hope they're minding it.

Redmachine2003
06-25-2009, 07:09 PM
I think the biggest thing is they dropped him in the order he was the lead off hitter the 1st couple of months, not to mention the whole teams but pucker up the last week trying to win the 1st half. From the numbers it looks like he is trying to hit more homers to impress.

GOYA
06-25-2009, 08:03 PM
There is no question that Heisey should be at AAA, in my opinion. He has dominated the Southern League for half a season.

And the Southern League has been dominating him for a while now. He's .211 over his last 10 and I don't think it's a good idea to tell him he has to figure it out against AAA pitchers. Let him show he can make whatever adjustments he needs against AA pitching first.

lollipopcurve
06-25-2009, 10:06 PM
And the Southern League has been dominating him for a while now. He's .211 over his last 10 and I don't think it's a good idea to tell him he has to figure it out against AAA pitchers. Let him show he can make whatever adjustments he needs against AA pitching first.

He's played a lot more than 10 games in the league. You need to reward your players for outstanding performance over an extended period of time, not punish them for brief slumps in the context of generally great seasons. It's called development.

You have no idea if pitchers have made any kind of adjustment to Heisey.

GOYA
06-25-2009, 11:13 PM
I don't care in the least if pitchers have made an adjustment. Heisey needs to make an adjustment. What he's doing now is not working and getting right will be easier for him in AA than at Louisville. He needs to have confidence when he comes up.

dougdirt
06-26-2009, 12:09 AM
I am saying that those same kinds of issues in Stubbs never caused you to raise a flag of "concern". I find it silly. And I love your stuff, but that's a really odd thing to grab onto to say that Heisey, who is doing stuff at AA that Stubbs never came remotely close to, should hang at AA to "work on". That's just ridiculous.

Stubbs never had his strikeout rate triple in a given month versus the previous two months. Thats the difference. If there is a weakness being exploited by the AA pitchers against Heisey this month that they weren't doing the first two months, should he not work on it there rather than be sent to AAA where it will take another two months for those pitchers to find the same weakness, meaning he doesn't get to work on it until next year? If Heisey were always a guy who struck out 20% of the time, then went ahead and struck out 25% of the time it would be a non issue, but when he went from a guy striking out 6.5% of the time in April and May to a guy striking out 23% of the time in June, its something worth talking about.

membengal
06-26-2009, 12:10 AM
Right.

Or, small sample size lovin' to ignore the larger sample size goodness.

Or, the exact opposite of your arguments on behalf of Stubbs over the years.

dougdirt
06-26-2009, 12:18 AM
Right.

Or, small sample size lovin' to ignore the larger sample size goodness.

Or, the exact opposite of your arguments on behalf of Stubbs over the years.

Small sample sizes don't come into play for swinging and missing 3 times more than you did the previous two months. Sure, if it were 5 games and he had 6 strikeouts, it would be one thing.... but here were at on June 25th and its still going on for the entire month of June.

Again, you are missing the context. Stubbs always struck out 20% of the time. If guys found something to exploit on him, he either hid it very well by not varying in his K rate, or he adjusted to it quickly. Heisey on the flip side has always been a low K type of guy, incredibly low this year, then all of a sudden in June over 90 PA, his K rate TRIPLED. Something is going on. If its the pitchers finding a weakness, he should stay in AA until he can correct that weakness. If its something he is doing, perhaps a timing issue or a flaw in his swing he didn't have before for whatever reason that can be easily fixed... send him to AAA. But if its the pitchers exploiting something in his swing, he should stay at AA until he gets back to where he was before (at least to his pre 2009 April/May strikeout rate).

Redmachine2003
06-26-2009, 02:10 AM
Stubbs his last 42 abs has struck out 16 time and has .167 avg
Heisey his last 37 abs has struck out 6 times and has .214 avg.
over the last 10 games both have struggled. But over the next 10 games we will see who makes the adjustment. Both are hitting in the .260s in June. Stubbs .262 and Heisey .268

membengal
06-26-2009, 08:54 AM
I'm not entirely sure why Heisey hasn't been sent back to Billings just yet...

BRM
06-26-2009, 10:25 AM
I'm not entirely sure why Heisey hasn't been sent back to Billings just yet...

The guy clearly can't handle the Southern League...