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View Full Version : Where's the HAVOC?



Ltlabner
06-24-2009, 07:21 PM
We were told that the team is being switched from an offense reliant on Johnsons to score runs, to one based on speed and all around hitting. We all know the hitting has been miserable.

But what about the proposed speedy team?


2009: 44 YTD
2008: 85
2007: 97
2886: 124

The Reds are actually on pace for 103 total team steals which surprised me somewhat. So assuming they keep it up, they will add 18 more stolen bases over the previous year so technically they are improving.

But does that count as "havoc"? Is it the constant base running presence that keeps pitchers awake at nights? The Reds are currently 7th in the NL in stolen bases. Just barely in the top 1/2 of the league. It doesn't strike me that other teams think we're a base stealing juggernaut.

Assuming they keep up the stolen base rate, which I don't think is a given, they will still end up 21 stolen bases shy of 2006 when we had Phillips, Freel and Lopez truly running amok on the base paths. So much so the Reds were 3rd in the NL in total stolen bases, and 6th in all of MLB.

What about base running on hits? Does the havoc show up in stretching singles into doubles? Swiping an extra base here and there on balls in play? I think there's some nifty stat out that there specifically measures extra bases being taken on hits. But I don't know it, so I looked at it a different way.

All of the following activities require some component of speed and aggressive base running. Here's how the Reds stack up against the rest of the NL:

Doubles: 15th
Triples: 10th
Total bases: 14th
Extra base hits: 14th

Factoring in that GABP suppresses doubles and triples, and that the Reds offense in general is miserable, I'm still not seeing the speed component of the Reds offense. If they were, in fact, creating havoc by swiping extra bases on the rare occasions they do get a hit I'd think it would show up somewhere.

The ranking against the other NL teams hasn't really changed much 2006 to now. With the exception of triples, generally speaking we're in the bottom half of the NL in those above listed categories. Since triples are the only difference, and we're only 1/2 through the season, I'm willing to bet that's a sample size result, not a true change in team approach.

Now, all of those categories (2b, TB, etc) are impacted by a number of other factors so I'm not putting a ton of stock in the NL category listings. But it does give us a nod in the direction of "there's no havoc here". Otherwise there would be significant changes in our rankings compared to our other teams or verses previous versions of the Reds.

Ultimately, there's no real surprise here. We can all tell by looking that there's not been any havoc on the base paths. But the question is why? If that was the organizational philosophy why have they seemingly abandoned their plan?

nate
06-24-2009, 07:26 PM
It looks like we're trending up to 2886.

Can't wait!

:cool:

I(heart)Freel
06-24-2009, 09:41 PM
Would be nice if the speed guys got on base a bit more.

Don't want this to become another Willy thread... but I've been frustrated since opening day with how conservative he's become. What happened to the guy who boldly predicted 100 robberies?

This says, to me, he was either told to cool his jets and pick his spots, or he lost the aggressive gene. Or his legs haven't been well all season.

But he's only part of the overall team speed issue. A big part, to be sure. But not the whole problem.

redsfan4445
06-24-2009, 09:48 PM
I think Jacoby has to GO!!!!!! Its time to get a BETTER hitting coach.. this team looks lost at the plate. no plan when they go to the plate.. just not patient enough (many times lately 7 pitches or less being pitched in an inning is ridiculous!!!!).. Like to see Kevin Mitchell as our hitting coach!!

jojo
06-24-2009, 09:52 PM
We were told that the team is being switched from an offense reliant on Johnsons to score runs, to one based on speed and all around hitting. We all know the hitting has been miserable.

But what about the proposed speedy team?

The Reds lead the majors in Sac Bunts.....

Raisor
06-24-2009, 09:56 PM
I'm here with Earl Weaver, and he wants to comment.

"Earl, don't you think the Reds need more team speed?"



"Team speed, for [goodness]sakes, you get [expletive] [expletive] fleas on the [expletive] bases, getting picked off trying to steal, getting thrown out, taking runs away from you. You get them big [expletive] who can hit the [expletive] ball out the ballpark and you can't make any [expletive] mistakes."


Wow, thanks Earl. Anything to add about tomato plants?

"I don't understand where these questions are coming from, Raisor. That's about it for Manager's Corner. Go [expletive] yourself and the [expletive] with your show coming up next on the Redszone baseball [expletive] website."

traderumor
06-24-2009, 09:56 PM
Ultimately, there's no real surprise here. We can all tell by looking that there's not been any havoc on the base paths. But the question is why? If that was the organizational philosophy why have they seemingly abandoned their plan?So, after a decade of home run orientation to scoring, you honestly expected that in one offseason that an organizational change of that magnitude would immediately be reflected on the field? I don't find that to be realistic expectations. I realize you are going to throw out Dusty and Walt's marketing comments, but certainly you know better.

jojo
06-24-2009, 10:03 PM
Ya, Jocketty has some more work to do...the Reds have only dropped from 7th in the majors in homers last season to 18th this season...

There's more room to cut the power-this might be atleast a two year project.

traderumor
06-24-2009, 10:06 PM
Ya, Jocketty has some more work to do...the Reds have only dropped from 7th in the majors in homers last season to 18th this season...

There's more room to cut the power-this might be atleast a two year project.Uh huh, that's the plan :rolleyes: Repetition bad, snark good, I guess.

AtomicDumpling
06-24-2009, 10:08 PM
I think the hoopla regarding speed was more of a marketing strategy to sell tickets rather than a decision by Jocketty to rely on speed to create runs.

The marketing department had to come up with something to rave about to get fans excited about this team.

"Come and watch this young, fast exciting team!" became their mantra because saying "We use minor league hitters because the cheapskate owner won't pay for big leaguers!" wouldn't sell very many tickets.

jojo
06-24-2009, 10:11 PM
The point was that Jocketty has been pretty efficacious concerning the character of the offense....

Ironically the Reds were 12th in the NL last season based upon R/G and they're 12th thus far in '09.

Nobody is calling Jocketty a moron. He's closer to an "iron".

Kc61
06-24-2009, 10:15 PM
"Come and watch this young, fast exciting team!" became their mantra because saying "We use minor league hitters because the cheapskate owner won't pay for big leaguers!" wouldn't sell very many tickets.


Or, Reds could pose a scoreboard stumper: "Name the last time the Reds acquired a proven top level player?"

Ltlabner
06-24-2009, 10:17 PM
So, after a decade of home run orientation to scoring, you honestly expected that in one offseason that an organizational change of that magnitude would immediately be reflected on the field? I don't find that to be realistic expectations. .

Um...basically....yea.

It's not like the team is devoid of speed with guys like BPhil, JHJ, Dickerson, and Willy T laying around. It's also not like the Reds coaching staff doesn't include some guys that know a thing or two about base stealing (Davis and Hatcher).


So I don't think it's really that complex of a nut to crack. Certainly not of any real "magnitude".


I think the hoopla regarding speed was more of a marketing strategy to sell tickets....

Well, yea. I agree. I think I posted several times over the off-season and in different threads that the speed thing was "smoke and mirrors". So it's really not all that surprising that they haven't even tried to employ speed as a weapon. Sort of like the annual talk of "back to fundamentals".

AtomicDumpling
06-24-2009, 10:17 PM
Or, Reds could pose a scoreboard stumper: "Name the last time the Reds acquired a proven top level player?"

I am stumped on that one... :confused::thumbup:

jojo
06-24-2009, 10:17 PM
Or, Reds could pose a scoreboard stumper: "Name the last time the Reds acquired a proven top level player?"

Coco probably answers that in most people's minds.

jojo
06-24-2009, 10:19 PM
It's not like the team is devoid of speed with guys like BPhil, JHJ, Dickerson, and Willy T laying around.

Certainly the bases don't seem to be getting clogged..... :p:

AtomicDumpling
06-24-2009, 10:20 PM
Coco probably answers that in most people's minds.

But he is a pitcher and we are talking about scoring runs with the offense.

Greg Vaughn might be the last proven run producer the Reds have brought in. Whoa, Griffey!!! Can't forget him.

*BaseClogger*
06-24-2009, 10:45 PM
Certainly the bases don't seem to be getting clogged..... :p:

Willy T acts like more of a *BaseFilter*... :lol:

mbgrayson
06-25-2009, 01:47 AM
Or, Reds could pose a scoreboard stumper: "Name the last time the Reds acquired a proven top level player?"

I'll go with Ken Griffey Jr. How we lookin?