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Kc61
06-25-2009, 11:00 AM
Reds were 3-7 for the last stretch, 7-13 over the last twenty, 34-36 overall, 17-17 at home, 17-19 on the road. Since May 15 team is 4-14 on the road, has been swept three times on road, and trail 0-2 at Toronto in current series. Currently a 6 game road losing streak. In same period, team is 10-8 at home. Votto just returned, Volquez and EE still out. AGonz and Lincoln on DL. Maloney back to AAA, Roenicke up.

Offense - Here's the trend line over the last twenty games: OPS - .742 to .713 to .704 (current).
OBP-.331 to .320 to .318 (current).
SLG-.412 to .395 to .386 (current).
BA .256 to .247 to .242 (current).

Reds are 14th in league in all these categories, except 15th in BA. Notably, team OPS is .759 at home, 7th best in the NL. But .652 on the road, 15th in NL.

Of regulars or semi-regulars only Votto, Gomes and Phillips with OPS above .810 and of those only Phillips has over 160 plate appearances. Most Reds regulars with better home numbers than road. Bruce with big gap, .986 OPS home, .551 road. Gomes as platoon player hitting well, .340 BA and over 1.000 OPS. Hanigan with .325 BA, .411 OBP, and .397 SLG in 148 plate appearances.

Pitching - Trend line in team ERA is 4.05 to 3.85 to .4.05 (current). Sixth in NL, third in Central (St. L and Chic. better). Home ERA is 4.50, 11th in league. Road team ERA is 3.62, second in league.

Trend line for starters ERA is 4.38 to 4.07 to 4.36 (7th in NL). Relief ERA was 3.36 last time now 3.46.

After 50 games, Arroyo was coming on with 7 wins and an improved 5.12 ERA. Now has 8 wins and a 5.54. Harang, only 5-7 in WL column with ERA of 3.66. Maloney had a 6.11 before going to AAA. Burton, who never went to AAA after all, improved with 4.60 ERA. Bullpen not perfect, but not a major issue.

Fielding - Like last time, Reds made 8 errors in this stretch and have fourth most in league with 51, a .981 FPCT.
DER, was best in NL last time, now trails Cubs and Dodgers. With injuries, infielders occasionally playing out of position, probably contributes to some defensive issues.

Reds now 4.5 games out of Central lead, question is whether they can hang in given offensive woes.

Falls City Beer
06-25-2009, 11:13 AM
Considering Volquez is a question mark the rest of the season, the Reds chances are almost certainly zilch, even if they somehow have an offensive renaissance.

dougdirt
06-25-2009, 11:45 AM
Considering Volquez is a question mark the rest of the season, the Reds chances are almost certainly zilch, even if they somehow have an offensive renaissance.

But Walt said we were buyers :confused:

Falls City Beer
06-25-2009, 11:52 AM
But Walt said we were buyers :confused:

I'd say the facts are changing rapidly right now. And as the facts change, I suspect so too will the strategy.

flyer85
06-25-2009, 12:22 PM
But Walt said we were buyers :confused:yet Walt hasn't bought much :p:

jojo
06-25-2009, 01:03 PM
yet Walt hasn't bought much :p:

The real question is, "Are fans buying what Walt is selling?".

Kc61
06-25-2009, 02:44 PM
If you take an objective look at the Reds lineup, with all the injuries, youth, and just subpar hitters, it's probably not surprising that the offense has performed this badly.

My guess is that the month of July will be "can we hit at full strength" month. EE will get back, Votto hopefully remains healthy, Phillips and Bruce play every day.

If they don't start hitting and the team falls out of the race, we'll start to hear the old RedsZone standby phrases that we all know and love.

"Shut him down."
"Blow it up."
"Sell."

Sea Ray
06-25-2009, 04:00 PM
Wasn't it June that killed us last year too?

*BaseClogger*
06-25-2009, 04:55 PM
The same story--the pitching is great and the offense blows...

GAC
06-25-2009, 04:58 PM
The same story--the pitching is great and the offense blows...

It use to be the other way around. We just can't seem to hit the middle of the target. ;)

But the bottom line, which most agreed upon, is that no matter the improvement in pitching, it couldn't offset the offensive woes of this '09 squad.Even with a healthy Votto and EE they were going to have a rough time.

What talent we have cannot offset the lack thereof.

And Bruce, so far, has really disappointed me. Yeah, I know he is only 22, but still......

mth123
06-25-2009, 06:48 PM
Notably, team OPS is .759 at home, 7th best in the NL. But .652 on the road, 15th in NL.

Most Reds regulars with better home numbers than road. Bruce with big gap, .986 OPS home, .551 road.

Pitching - Trend line in team ERA is 4.05 to 3.85 to .4.05 (current). Sixth in NL, third in Central (St. L and Chic. better). Home ERA is 4.50, 11th in league. Road team ERA is 3.62, second in league.



This is what really grabs me when reading this stuff. After the last 15 or so years, we all want good pitching, but at GABP trying to evaluate the Reds based on team stats is very deceiving. This team's middle of the pack ERA would suggest trying to move into the upper echelon in pitching, but it probably just won't happen and in reality middle of the pack is pretty good in GABP and certainly good enough to win.

Conversely, if this team is middle of the pack on offense, its probably not very good. The "top pitching with middling offense model" just won't work on this team IMO. The Reds should be shooting for a top 3 or 4 offense (built around guys who can catch it and contribute up the middle and swat it on the corners) with middle of the pack pitching. It seems like the best plan for success in this environment to me.

*BaseClogger*
06-25-2009, 06:50 PM
This is what really grabs me when reading this stuff. After the last 15 or so years, we all want good pitching, but at GABP trying to evaluate the Reds based on team stats is very deceiving. This team's middle of the pack ERA would suggest trying to move into the upper echelon in pitching, but it probably just won't happen and in reality middle of the pack is pretty good in GABP and certainly good enough to win.

Conversely, if this team is middle of the pack on offense, its probably not very good. The "top pitching with middling offense model" just won't work on this team IMO. The Reds should be shooting for a top 3 or 4 offense (built around guys who can catch it and contribute up the middle and swat it on the corners) with middle of the pack pitching. It seems like the best plan for success in this environment to me.

Exactly... :thumbup:

Kc61
06-26-2009, 04:35 PM
Conversely, if this team is middle of the pack on offense, its probably not very good. The "top pitching with middling offense model" just won't work on this team IMO. The Reds should be shooting for a top 3 or 4 offense (built around guys who can catch it and contribute up the middle and swat it on the corners) with middle of the pack pitching. It seems like the best plan for success in this environment to me.

I've always had a concern that a GABP team could have difficulty hitting on the road. Guys get used to the friendly confines and have trouble adjusting on the road. Rockies, although the stadium is quite different, have had that problem over the years. It takes real good hitters to make the adjustment.

As of yesterday, the .759 home OPS is lower than it should be at GABP, but is respectable. However, the .652 road OPS is a huge problem. (Probably higher after last night's good offensive performance in Toronto.)

The Reds need more hitters who can succeed both home and away. It would be interesting to see the home/road hitting differential of all teams in the NL. My guess is that the Reds have one of the largest differentials.

Of course, getting Joey V back helps.

Reds1
06-26-2009, 05:16 PM
I know this has been talked about, but injuries have been a major factor. This team actually pitched very well during some of the losing streaks, but no offense. Votto is like loosing Pujos. Look at last night to see what we missed. 2 hits with 2 outs and runners in scoring position and after we let them tie the game hits a solo HR are you kidding me. Also, EE being gone has hurt the Reds power numbers and frankly the 3B defense has not been great. Add Volquez and you have it. The way the Reds can win is if they stay healthy. We have a good 1st team, but when you have to dip down to the AAA team for 5-6 guys what can be expected. I'm just glad we are starting to see folks get back. EE looks close - not sure when his 60 days are up, but 1-2 with 3 walks last night and a couple HRS the few previous games gives me hope. Taverez coming of funk maybe? Finally, Dickerson getting some PT. I'm excited. Only 3.5 games out despite all this stuff is exciting to me. We'll see what happens. I don't think Corky Miller is the only addition. :)

Sea Ray
06-26-2009, 05:51 PM
No doubt that last night's game is an example of how Joey can single handedly win games for you. He was a huge loss.

OnBaseMachine
06-26-2009, 06:11 PM
I can't help but wonder where this team would be right now if they hadn't been hit so hard with injuries. Joey Votto has missed 30 games. Edwin Encarnacion has missed 52 games. Edinson Volquez has missed six starts.

With EdE out, the Reds went from having a guy who has averaged an .809 OPS over the last three seasons to a .546 OPS out of their 3B this season.

With Votto out, you drop from a guy putting up MVP numbers to sub .700 OPS hitters.

Volquez, our best starter last season, was replaced by minor leaguers who aren't ready for the majors yet.

If Dickerson had been the starting CF from day one, and EdE, Volquez, and Votto had stayed healthy, I think this team would have about five more wins. JMO.

Mario-Rijo
06-26-2009, 06:16 PM
I can't help but wonder where this team would be right now if they hadn't been hit so hard with injuries. Joey Votto has missed 30 games. Edwin Encarnacion has missed 52 games. Edinson Volquez has missed six starts.

With EdE out, the Reds went from having a guy who has averaged an .809 OPS over the last three seasons to a .546 OPS out of their 3B this season.

With Votto out, you drop from a guy putting up MVP numbers to a sub .700 OPS hitters.

Volquez, our best starter last season, was replaced by minor leaguers who aren't ready for the majors yet.

If Dickerson had been the starting CF from day one, and EdE, Volquez, and Votto had stayed healthy, I think this team would have at least five more wins which would put them at 40-31. JMO.

5 wins might be a bit generous, we don't know how their scuffling at certain points had they been playing might have cost us wins that we have. I'd say maybe 3 wins. But who knows in reality maybe it would have been 10 games had they been hot during that time. Either way we still have done a fine job of hanging in there and they are really far from out of it yet.

A sweep of the Tribe (very doable) puts us at 2 games over and perhaps as close as tied for 2nd.

Falls City Beer
06-26-2009, 06:58 PM
The pitching has been nothing short of atrocious the last 10 games or so. The only reason they weren't swept in Toronto was the O.

Razor Shines
06-26-2009, 07:06 PM
The pitching has been nothing short of atrocious the last 10 games or so. The only reason they weren't swept in Toronto was the O.

Maybe they haven't been the best but our pitchers have been innings eaters over the last ten games. Reds pitchers have pitched 87 innings over the last ten games.

Falls City Beer
06-26-2009, 07:09 PM
Maybe they haven't been the best but our pitchers have been innings eaters over the last ten games. Reds pitchers have pitched 87 innings over the last ten games.

The pitching has been fantastically awful, from 1-13. The offense was bad too until Votto showed up.

Razor Shines
06-26-2009, 07:15 PM
The pitching has been fantastically awful, from 1-13. The offense was bad too until Votto showed up.

But Reds pitchers have pitched every inning of every game, they're at least eating up those innings.