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View Full Version : Joey Votto is a lucky hitter



DTCromer
06-26-2009, 04:39 PM
http://www.fangraphs.com/graphs/4314_1B_season_full_7_20090625.png

Why don't we trade him now that his value is higher than it should be?

GIDP
06-26-2009, 04:48 PM
Because everyone knows hes not a .360 hitter and it isnt possible to keep a .410 BABIP because he has been lucky.

Let me guess you dont understand how BABIP works do you?

DTCromer
06-26-2009, 05:02 PM
I know how BABIP works.

I'm just wondering why everyone is defending 1 guy for being "unlucky" and yet no one is saying anything about another guy being "lucky."

I'm just trying to provide a balance of views on these boards.

GIDP
06-26-2009, 05:18 PM
Because a non lucky Votto is still quite good. Hes just playing at a freakish level right now because of luck.

GIDP
06-26-2009, 05:19 PM
I also dont understand the thread, should we be bashing Votto in this thread or what?

keeganbrick
06-26-2009, 05:24 PM
His amazingness/youngness and nevermind he is one of the best leaders this team has seen in a LONG time. But yea, lets trade him for some prospects : /

PhillipsHead
06-26-2009, 05:26 PM
Blasphemy. I am officially ignoring this thread...

mroby85
06-26-2009, 06:48 PM
This is stupid. Is Pujols lucky? Some players must be consistently lucky every year, and others are unlucky. Poor Poor Edwin and Willy Taveras must be unlucky all the time lol.

DTCromer
06-26-2009, 07:36 PM
I also dont understand the thread, should we be bashing Votto in this thread or what?

Have you not been reading the thoughts of the majority of most Reds fans on this board defending mediocre/awful hitting of 1 player?

Ghosts of 1990
06-26-2009, 07:47 PM
This is stupid. Is Pujols lucky? Some players must be consistently lucky every year, and others are unlucky. Poor Poor Edwin and Willy Taveras must be unlucky all the time lol.

no but Bruce is.

GIDP
06-26-2009, 08:19 PM
Have you not been reading the thoughts of the majority of most Reds fans on this board defending mediocre/awful hitting of 1 player?

So should we be bashing Joey Votto? I'm not sure the purpose of this thread is.

Jefferson24
06-26-2009, 09:46 PM
these things have a way of evening out eventually. Joey will be a .285 hitter and Jay will hit .260.

mroby85
06-26-2009, 10:14 PM
these things have a way of evening out eventually. Joey will be a .285 hitter and Jay will hit .260.

Votto isn't a 285 hitter, he hit 297 his rookie year. This thread is stupid.

xavr1
06-26-2009, 10:21 PM
Yeah Votto sucks. He is everything that is wrong with this team!

ukwazoo
06-26-2009, 10:57 PM
I'm with ya, Cromer. Stat geeks get out of hand at times. I agree that stats have their place, but to say a .209 hitter is mainly unlucky is laughable. You can tell who has played the game and who hasn't.

GIDP
06-26-2009, 11:17 PM
I'm with ya, Cromer. Stat geeks get out of hand at times. I agree that stats have their place, but to say a .209 hitter is mainly unlucky is laughable. You can tell who has played the game and who hasn't.
Yea those guys that dont believe luck is a factor obviously never played.

Griffey012
06-27-2009, 12:39 AM
BECAUSE LINE DRIVES ARE HARD TO CATCH AND MORE LIKELY TO FALL, this is why BABIP is lame. Yeah Taveras's BABIP is horrible because he has a weak bat and hits routine ground balls even though he is super fast, Votto his lasers which typically fall He isn't "lucky" he is just a solid all around hitter. Not to the .375 variety or whatever he is at, but definitely to the .330 to maybe a .350 variety on a good year.

The league average player pulls a lot of ground balls to shortstop that should go to the opposite field, Votto hits these balls the opposite way solidly.

Or am I just misunderstanding BABIP as a stat?

TC81190
06-27-2009, 12:44 AM
BECAUSE LINE DRIVES ARE HARD TO CATCH AND MORE LIKELY TO FALL, this is why BABIP is lame. Yeah Taveras's BABIP is horrible because he has a weak bat and hits routine ground balls even though he is super fast, Votto his lasers which typically fall He isn't "lucky" he is just a solid all around hitter. Not to the .375 variety or whatever he is at, but definitely to the .330 to maybe a .350 variety on a good year.

The league average player pulls a lot of ground balls to shortstop that should go to the opposite field, Votto hits these balls the opposite way solidly.

Or am I just misunderstanding BABIP as a stat?
It doesn't really work unless you look at a few other things as well. For example, line drive percentage. If a player is hitting an unsustainable number of line drives, paired with a high BABIP, you can pretty much guarantee he might be playing a little over his head. True, there is something to be said for hitting the ball hard and making good contact. But that only goes so far.

As far as Bruce being unlucky, that's been discussed at a length here. He hits a lot of fly balls and not a lot of line drives, meaning his type of batted balls are going to go for hits less often (fly balls usually end up as outs or home runs.) That said, he does have a low BABIP on line drives (can't find the exact number, not sure where to look for that), which does suggest maybe some bad luck.

Krawhitham
06-27-2009, 12:49 AM
This is stupid. Is Pujols lucky? Some players must be consistently lucky every year, and others are unlucky. Poor Poor Edwin and Willy Taveras must be unlucky all the time lol.

EE's career batting average is .261, The national league's average last season was .260. Guess is is not that unlucky after all

GIDP
06-27-2009, 02:16 AM
BECAUSE LINE DRIVES ARE HARD TO CATCH AND MORE LIKELY TO FALL, this is why BABIP is lame. Yeah Taveras's BABIP is horrible because he has a weak bat and hits routine ground balls even though he is super fast, Votto his lasers which typically fall He isn't "lucky" he is just a solid all around hitter. Not to the .375 variety or whatever he is at, but definitely to the .330 to maybe a .350 variety on a good year.

The league average player pulls a lot of ground balls to shortstop that should go to the opposite field, Votto hits these balls the opposite way solidly.

Or am I just misunderstanding BABIP as a stat?

You kinda get it. Even with his high BABIP its simply unsustainable. No player in the history of baseball can continuously put up a .410 BABIP. Even with the line drives which he still has had a bit of luck when it comes to bloops and bleeders.

Manny Ramirez who many view as on of the greatest hitters in the history of baseball has only had one .400+ babip season, his career average is .345.

Babe Ruth career BABIP .340 just like Manny only 1 year of a BABIP over .400.

No one is saying BABIP is only luck based because its not. FB% GB% and LD% all factor in but you can look at Albert Pujols numbers in 2002 and 2003.

LD%
2002: 21.9
2003: 22.5

GB%
2002: 42.9
2003: 41.4

FB%
2002: 35.1
2003: 36.1

Now those numbers are all pretty close. One thing isnt though his 2002 BABIP is .310, while his 2003 BABIP is .350. He certainly didnt hit a whole lot better or worse those 2 years but he gained 40 points in BABIP.

People are suggesting that flyballs turn into outs more often, and they do, but if it wasnt luck based then how could you explain those numbers. Does that .6 of a line drive % really make up that much and is it that much better than 1% more fly balls?

No its luck based. Even the best hitters have luck and bad luck.

Votto is having good luck, hes not a .360 hitter overall, hes just been lucky. Being lucky doesnt mean you are a goign to be a bad hitter it simply means you are getting gifts from the baseball gods more than you normally would.

mroby85
06-27-2009, 03:31 AM
EE's career batting average is .261, The national league's average last season was .260. Guess is is not that unlucky after all

Wow, and his defense definitely makes him worth that 1 batting average point, good point :D

DTCromer
06-27-2009, 07:24 AM
So should we be bashing Joey Votto? I'm not sure the purpose of this thread is.

This thread is obviously a response to the "Jay Bruce has been unlucky" thread on both boards.

No, I don't think Joey Votto sucks and that wasn't the point of this thread. I think he's a great hitter and have no problems with him.

I do have problems with people defending a .209 hitter because he's "unlucky" and yet I'm the one who's seen as a clown. You know you've been losing for a long time when the majority of the "intelligent" fans are just accepting mediocrity from the biggest prospect this organization has seen in a long, long time.

GIDP
06-27-2009, 10:17 AM
This thread is obviously a response to the "Jay Bruce has been unlucky" thread on both boards.

No, I don't think Joey Votto sucks and that wasn't the point of this thread. I think he's a great hitter and have no problems with him.

I do have problems with people defending a .209 hitter because he's "unlucky" and yet I'm the one who's seen as a clown. You know you've been losing for a long time when the majority of the "intelligent" fans are just accepting mediocrity from the biggest prospect this organization has seen in a long, long time.
thats probably the nicest way I have ever seen someone straight up insult someone on the board for using facts.

Ghosts of 1990
06-27-2009, 11:28 AM
I do have problems with people defending a .209 hitter because he's "unlucky" and yet I'm the one who's seen as a clown. You know you've been losing for a long time when the majority of the "intelligent" fans are just accepting mediocrity from the biggest prospect this organization has seen in a long, long time.

I don't think anyone is accepting this as Jay Bruce's finished product but the facts are present for why the numbers are so poor. He has the lowest BABIP in baseball, by far.

Mutaman
06-27-2009, 12:13 PM
DT, you used sublity and irony and you criticised TheBruce. None of that goes around here.

There's only one "fact" that counts: the guy plays in the best hitters park in baseball and hes hitting .209.

Griffey012
06-27-2009, 12:20 PM
You kinda get it. Even with his high BABIP its simply unsustainable. No player in the history of baseball can continuously put up a .410 BABIP. Even with the line drives which he still has had a bit of luck when it comes to bloops and bleeders.

Manny Ramirez who many view as on of the greatest hitters in the history of baseball has only had one .400+ babip season, his career average is .345.

Babe Ruth career BABIP .340 just like Manny only 1 year of a BABIP over .400.

No one is saying BABIP is only luck based because its not. FB% GB% and LD% all factor in but you can look at Albert Pujols numbers in 2002 and 2003.

LD%
2002: 21.9
2003: 22.5

GB%
2002: 42.9
2003: 41.4

FB%
2002: 35.1
2003: 36.1

Now those numbers are all pretty close. One thing isnt though his 2002 BABIP is .310, while his 2003 BABIP is .350. He certainly didnt hit a whole lot better or worse those 2 years but he gained 40 points in BABIP.

People are suggesting that flyballs turn into outs more often, and they do, but if it wasnt luck based then how could you explain those numbers. Does that .6 of a line drive % really make up that much and is it that much better than 1% more fly balls?

No its luck based. Even the best hitters have luck and bad luck.

Votto is having good luck, hes not a .360 hitter overall, hes just been lucky. Being lucky doesnt mean you are a goign to be a bad hitter it simply means you are getting gifts from the baseball gods more than you normally would.

I know Votto's BABIP is pretty rediculously high so far this season, but I would like to see how his other stats look such as high GB, FB, and LD%'s. What is a good place to look at these? This year it just seems as if Votto has been a hitting machine and really not even been that lucky, it seems like usually he just hits a liner into the gap for a double, or a homerun, or a bloop into no mans land into shallow left center.

Another sort of unrelated topic that would be interested is looking as these stats for a lefthanded power hitter to see how the shift effects the BABIP.

corwinator3407
06-27-2009, 01:20 PM
2 games under .500 and you wanna bash one of our only rays of light so far for being too lucky? Gimme a break.

GIDP
06-27-2009, 01:26 PM
I know Votto's BABIP is pretty rediculously high so far this season, but I would like to see how his other stats look such as high GB, FB, and LD%'s. What is a good place to look at these? This year it just seems as if Votto has been a hitting machine and really not even been that lucky, it seems like usually he just hits a liner into the gap for a double, or a homerun, or a bloop into no mans land into shallow left center.

Another sort of unrelated topic that would be interested is looking as these stats for a lefthanded power hitter to see how the shift effects the BABIP.

Fangraphs is probably the best stat site in the world.

GIDP
06-27-2009, 01:29 PM
as for Votto his numbers from 2008 and 2009 are pretty much the same. Hes hit 3% more flyballs this year than he did last year other than that its all the same.

His BABIP has corrected itself some its now around .350 but in 2008 it was .297.

you also have to take into the account what the league average is because simply D might be crappier the year before or after.

corwinator3407
06-27-2009, 01:30 PM
Fangraphs is probably the best stat site in the world.

I concur.



Season Team GB/FB LD% GB% FB% IFFB% HR/FB IFH% BUH%

2007 Reds 0.59 26.1 % 27.5 % 46.4 % 6.3 % 12.5 % 15.8 % 0.0 %
2008 Reds 1.44 25.2 % 44.1 % 30.7 % 3.8 % 18.5 % 2.7 % 50.0 %
2009 Reds 1.24 25.2 % 41.4 % 33.3 % 2.7 % 24.3 % 4.3 % 0.0 %
Total * - - - 1.27 25.3 % 41.7 % 32.9 % 4.0 % 18.6 % 4.0 % 50.0 %

urdun
06-27-2009, 04:02 PM
This thread is obviously a response to the "Jay Bruce has been unlucky" thread on both boards.

No, I don't think Joey Votto sucks and that wasn't the point of this thread. I think he's a great hitter and have no problems with him.

I do have problems with people defending a .209 hitter because he's "unlucky" and yet I'm the one who's seen as a clown. You know you've been losing for a long time when the majority of the "intelligent" fans are just accepting mediocrity from the biggest prospect this organization has seen in a long, long time.

Sure he has been unlucky there's no doubt about that but he's also created a degree of that bad luck by being so aggressive. But I think it's less a case of accepting mediocrity and more a case of understanding that Bruce's best chance to develop is in the majors. He will dominate in AAA but does that actually help him develop patience which is what he needs? Probably not or at least not enough to matter. It might settle him down a bit but then again it might not either, probably just make him that much more aggressive.

urdun
06-27-2009, 04:16 PM
DT, you used sublity and irony and you criticised TheBruce. None of that goes around here.

There's only one "fact" that counts: the guy plays in the best hitters park in baseball and hes hitting .209.

Or he plays in the best HR hitters park and has 17 of 'em. Because GABP historically speaking gives up more jacks than most other parks but it does nothing extra for doubles, triples and hits in general it's normally fairly nuetral in those areas. This year triples are higher but I think that is due to the home team having more speed than usual and a small sample size. Homers are down also and I think again that's due to the home team both offensively and pitching wise.

Mutaman
06-27-2009, 05:18 PM
Or he plays in the best HR hitters park and has 17 of 'em. Because GABP historically speaking gives up more jacks than most other parks but it does nothing extra for doubles, triples and hits in general it's normally fairly nuetral in those areas. This year triples are higher but I think that is due to the home team having more speed than usual and a small sample size. Homers are down also and I think again that's due to the home team both offensively and pitching wise.

Fine. Jay is at a disadvantage because he plays in GABP which "does nothing extra for doubles, triples and hits in general".

Bottom line- the kid is hitting .209, and whether its due to bad luck, his youth, where he hits in the order, ect., ect., that is simply unacceptable. My patience has worn thin with all of the excuses.

urdun
06-28-2009, 04:04 AM
Fine. Jay is at a disadvantage because he plays in GABP which "does nothing extra for doubles, triples and hits in general".

Bottom line- the kid is hitting .209, and whether its due to bad luck, his youth, where he hits in the order, ect., ect., that is simply unacceptable. My patience has worn thin with all of the excuses.

I didn't say he was at a disadvantage, just that he has no clear advantage like you more or less suggested.

Here is a kid who at the ripe old age of 22 has just finished about a seasons worth of games about 2 weeks ago. He's now hit .237 with 39 HR's and 92 RBI in 178 games (or 16 over a full season). No matter how you slice it that's pretty darn good for a 21-22 year old rookie kid in MLB. He'll get better, much better that's clear. And we really should show much more patience. 3 years from now he is still wallowing down in the low .200's that's one thing but to lose patience this soon is nothing but counter productive.

gilpdawg
06-28-2009, 07:25 AM
I'm with ya, Cromer. Stat geeks get out of hand at times. I agree that stats have their place, but to say a .209 hitter is mainly unlucky is laughable. You can tell who has played the game and who hasn't.
Tracy Jones? Welcome to the board.

BLEEDS
06-28-2009, 10:53 AM
BECAUSE LINE DRIVES ARE HARD TO CATCH AND MORE LIKELY TO FALL, this is why BABIP is lame. Yeah Taveras's BABIP is horrible because he has a weak bat and hits routine ground balls even though he is super fast, Votto his lasers which typically fall He isn't "lucky" he is just a solid all around hitter. Not to the .375 variety or whatever he is at, but definitely to the .330 to maybe a .350 variety on a good year.

The league average player pulls a lot of ground balls to shortstop that should go to the opposite field, Votto hits these balls the opposite way solidly.

Or am I just misunderstanding BABIP as a stat?

You are right on both accounts.

I definitely subscribe to the "you make (part of) your own luck" theory. If you have a weak bat, or are consistently pulling off, hitting routine grounders/dribblers because you're trying to pull the ball instead of going with the pitch, etc, etc... then you DEFINITELY are contributing to your own "bad luck".

There's no "bad luck" about a slow dribbler to shortstop or a pop-up/lazy fly ball to the OF.
If you are striking the ball fairly hard, then yes, BAPIP is going to dominate your results.
If you are taking a horrible approach at the plate then BAPIP should be considered with a grain of salt.
If you are striking the ball REALLY hard because you are doing everything right at the plate, then you make your own luck as well.

Same goes for pitching. If you have the kind of "stuff" that gets battered around and every opposing roster seems to just be teeing off on you, it's not because of BAPIP, it's because YOU SUCK!!!
see: Belisle, Matt. Every stat head on this site was pimping him as the next #3/#2 starter on this team because of his "Bad Luck" BAPIP, when actually he just sucked.
Sometimes you've got to look beyond the mere stats.
BAPIP is definitely a big example of that.

PEACE

-BLEEDS

Plus Plus
06-28-2009, 11:15 AM
+1

I see over and over people posting about how Bruce got robbed of hits X Y and Z in a game, but the fact that every 3-1 count he feels the need to swing is overlooked. I guarantee that for every single line drive right at someone, he has hit two or three soft grounders to the second baseman, most in a hitter's count. His LD% is way down and many of his PAs end with poor contact. His BABIP is low for the same reason that Willy T's is- they are making poor contact on the ball. Bruce needs to stop feeling the need to swing at every 2-0 or 3-1 pitch that is within a zip code of home plate in order to bring this up- not a change in luck.

Ohioballplayer
07-01-2009, 12:37 PM
PPP this thread, it's useless, we will ride him luck or unlucky!!

If ya don't know what PPP is, it means Pamper it / Powder it, and PUT it to bed

bgwilly31
07-01-2009, 12:48 PM
Worst thread of the year!

Lockdwn11
07-04-2009, 04:33 PM
Just another lucky game by Votto I mean did you see how lucky he was on his blast out to right center today? We better trade him now!!!!:rolleyes:

xavr1
07-04-2009, 05:07 PM
Triple was all luck too. He sucks.

mroby85
07-04-2009, 07:04 PM
It amazes me how much more lucky he consistently is than all the other batters. Such as last night in the 9th when we ended up losing, and he had a 1-2 count, and luckily fought it back to a 3-2 count hitting a few lucky foul balls spoiling pitches, and drawing a lucky walk. Then unlucky Brandon Phillips just swung right through everything. If I was Joey Votto i'd go play the lottery, lol. :D

GIDP
07-04-2009, 07:08 PM
I figure it out, no such thing as luck. Everything is 100% talent and skill.

If you hit 100 line drives at the 1st baseman every time its because you suck not because he is standing in the right place.

If you have 100 bloop singles its because you are awesome and know where to hit it with perfect precision.

BLEEDS
07-05-2009, 11:23 AM
Joey definitely makes his "own luck".

When you are driving the ball hard like that, there's not much "luck" involved.

Routine ground balls in the infield; those that get through, those that don't; yep, there is some luck in that.

When you have a great approach at the plate and are just getting great contact, the results speak for themselves.

PEACE

-BLEEDS

GIDP
07-05-2009, 11:26 AM
Votto is so amazing that his game winning single the other night was blooped so perfectly that he made the SS barely miss it.

Then the double he had in the same game he hit the ball so perfectly that it made the LFer drop it.

He created that luck with out a doubt.

I cant believe people refuse to understand this simple concept.

mroby85
07-05-2009, 12:18 PM
Votto is so amazing that his game winning single the other night was blooped so perfectly that he made the SS barely miss it.

Then the double he had in the same game he hit the ball so perfectly that it made the LFer drop it.

He created that luck with out a doubt.

I cant believe people refuse to understand this simple concept.

They probably don't understand it because it's one of the dumbest concepts ever. who ever hit 100 bloop singles? seriously?
Do the same players consistently get lucky which is what makes them better players? is Pujols a lucky hitter? Joey Votto hasn't been lucky, he probably has the same amount of lucky hits as any other guy in the league, he just simply puts together great at bats with a great approach at the plate, and when you do things like that, good things happen. BTW that single the other day that wasn't hit hard, he was going the other way with a pitch when the infield was shifted over. So yeah, that was helpful instead of trying to pull into the shift like Griffey or Dunn always did.

WILD THING
07-05-2009, 12:27 PM
A real man makes his own luck. If you put yourself in the position for a lucky bloop shot or punch through the middle (i.e. good at bats where you're constantly battling) then good things will come. Some see it as luck, I simply see it as putting yourself in the right situation. However, you obviously drop your chances of such a hit when you're 0-2 in the count because you swung at one in the dirt/at your eyes.

GIDP
07-05-2009, 12:57 PM
They probably don't understand it because it's one of the dumbest concepts ever. who ever hit 100 bloop singles? seriously?
Do the same players consistently get lucky which is what makes them better players? is Pujols a lucky hitter? Joey Votto hasn't been lucky, he probably has the same amount of lucky hits as any other guy in the league, he just simply puts together great at bats with a great approach at the plate, and when you do things like that, good things happen. BTW that single the other day that wasn't hit hard, he was going the other way with a pitch when the infield was shifted over. So yeah, that was helpful instead of trying to pull into the shift like Griffey or Dunn always did.

Luck is a dumb concept? Thats a new one to me.

mroby85
07-05-2009, 01:00 PM
Luck is a dumb concept? Thats a new one to me.

No, the concept of saying a .366 hitter thats been consistently raking all season is because of luck is what's dumb.

GIDP
07-05-2009, 01:03 PM
No, the concept of saying a .366 hitter thats been consistently doing all season is luck is what's dumb.

So those 2 hits in the last couple days werent lucky they were just perfectly placed hits because Joey is that good? No they were lucky hits.

Votto is a .366 hitter because of luck but that doesnt mean hes a terrible hitter...

Just like Bruce is a low .200s hitter because of some bad luck but it doesnt mean hes a .300 hitter.

Its luck, and yes Votto has been lucky this year.

mroby85
07-05-2009, 05:43 PM
Jay Bruce isn't unlucky, he's terrible. He looks completely lost at the plate, and Votto couldn't look more like he knows what he's doing up there. I'm not going to keep debating about luck though, because there is no way to prove it, and Votto could outplay bruce the next 20 years and you could still say he's just lucky so there is really no point.

GIDP
07-05-2009, 05:45 PM
Im glad that you are so willing to admit that you have no understanding of what people mean by lucky.

Saves me some time and effort in the future.

BRM13
07-06-2009, 01:57 PM
Jay Bruce isn't unlucky, he's terrible. He looks completely lost at the plate, and Votto couldn't look more like he knows what he's doing up there. I'm not going to keep debating about luck though, because there is no way to prove it, and Votto could outplay bruce the next 20 years and you could still say he's just lucky so there is really no point.

Sure there is. If something is skill you can repeat it (on average). If it is lucky you can't repeat it (on average).

Suppose I flip a coin and get heads 5 times in a row. If I'm 'good' at flipping heads I'll be able to flip a lot more than 50% heads in the future too; if it is luck, then I'll get about 50% heads in the future.

If Votto out hits Bruce 20 years in a row, I'd say that was skill, not luck since he is repeating his performance.

mroby85
07-06-2009, 03:10 PM
Sure there is. If something is skill you can repeat it (on average). If it is lucky you can't repeat it (on average).

Suppose I flip a coin and get heads 5 times in a row. If I'm 'good' at flipping heads I'll be able to flip a lot more than 50% heads in the future too; if it is luck, then I'll get about 50% heads in the future.

If Votto out hits Bruce 20 years in a row, I'd say that was skill, not luck since he is repeating his performance.

I would agree, but i'm not sure the person I was discussing it with would. It's obvious to me when watching this year that Joey Votto is a much better hitter than Jay Bruce, and it's not simply because he's having "lucky" hits fall in. I'm not sure where there notion that Jay Bruce has been so unlucky has come from. He has wreckless at bats where he doesn't work the count, and hits many lazy fly balls early in counts, while Votto works great at bats and is a very professional hitter.

GIDP
07-06-2009, 03:43 PM
Good lord can you misinterpret what lucky is any more?

Yes Votto is a good hitter but he isnt a .366 hitter with out some luck. You refuse to believe that. You think him hitting .366 is complete skill other wise you couldnt disagree with anyone regarding this topic.

Jay Bruce has been hitting badly but has also had bad luck. Does that mean hes better than Votto? No it means hes not a .200 hitter though.

I dont even understand why I'm typing. I feel like I'm trying to teach a kid where babies come from.

mroby85
07-06-2009, 03:56 PM
I'm sorry, your baseball knowledge is soooo above me, you should probably be working in a front office somewhere. You could trade all your .366 hitters for unlucky .200 hitters, and get all their good luck the rest of the way.
Votto has been no more lucky than Jay Bruce this season, everyone gets lucky some, but when you hit the ball square, and have good AB's good things happen. That's not luck.

GIDP
07-06-2009, 04:01 PM
So you understand what it means to be lucky but you refuse to understand that someone can be lucky.

got it


Votto is so good he can reproduce a .366 BA and since it isnt luck aided at all we should assume he will always hit near .366

Got that one also.

bgwilly31
07-06-2009, 04:13 PM
Why in the world is this thread still alive...... .

I just skimmed through it.

GIDP thanks your wonderful insight your adding to this thread just allowed me to understand the rest of your posts and future posts. I'll take them with a grain of salt.

This is the dumbest thread of the year. No need to feed the GIDP spark he's putting out with fuel.

Using the he's lucky stuff is just something crappy players used to sit on the bench and bark about to the other players riding the pine. Talking how the guy, who is starting over them, is soooo lucky. We all know what lucky is GIDP. But you have to put the bat on the ball to get lucky. Putting the bat on the ball is SKILL!

GIDP
07-06-2009, 04:27 PM
So you guys are going to sit there and tell me that Votto having the balls hes put in play turn into hist 40% of the time isnt lucky even if the major league average is 30%?

Are you telling me Joey Votto is so good he has his hits fall in 11% more than Albert Pujols? He is so good that his same LD%, FB% and GB% of last year has suddenly just made 8% more hits fall in?

At some point you guys have to understand that he has been lucky. Of course you guys dont understand that it doesnt mean hes bad. It just means hes not a .366 hitter with out those lucky hits falling in more than they normally would.

Bgwilly putting the bat on the ball is skill.

Being lucky doesnt have anything to do with skill, it has to do with luck. Why you guys equate these 2 beyond me and obviously means you just dont know what the word luck means.

Flipping a coin and guessing which side it falls on isnt related to skill even if you guess it right 5 times in a row and if you guess wrong 5 times it doesnt mean you have any less skill at picking which side its going to land on than the other guy. Putting the ball in play only does so much, after that yea believe it or not luck is involved and yes Votto has had luck on his side so far this year.

BRM13
07-06-2009, 05:51 PM
I'm sorry, your baseball knowledge is soooo above me, you should probably be working in a front office somewhere. You could trade all your .366 hitters for unlucky .200 hitters, and get all their good luck the rest of the way.
Votto has been no more lucky than Jay Bruce this season, everyone gets lucky some, but when you hit the ball square, and have good AB's good things happen. That's not luck.

You can be lucky and good (Votto) or unlucky and bad (Bruce this year) or other combinations we aren't discussing in this thread. The difference in the BA's is like 150 points. Without the good/bad luck it might be more like 80-100 points (I'm guessing, I haven't tried to figure out their luck adjusted BAs). Bruce is not hitting anywhere near as well as Votto. This year Bruce is not as good as Votto, not even close. That doesn't mean he can't be unlucky, too.

The claim is that Bruce is having a relatively poor year, but it looks worse than it is because he's been unlucky, so we shouldn't get too down on him. I think this is plausible and I am holding out hope that we at least see some change in his luck this year. The underlying skill level should improve markedly with age--he dominated the minors and is still very young for the Majors--as it does with all good players. If Bruce doesn't get better I'll be as disappointed as anybody.