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View Full Version : My 3 Way Deal That Lands Matt Holliday On The Reds!



RedLegSuperStar
06-28-2009, 09:54 AM
My eyes are close and the sand man just left..

Reds receive: Matt Holliday(w/ 72hr. negotiating window) and Jason Vargas
Mariners recieve: Bronson Arroyo
Oakland recieves: Wladimir Balentine, Josh Roenicke, Drew Stubbs, and Chris Shelton

Reds net the big right handed bopper and the ability to sign him long term. If not I think they still except the deal and go to arbitration or net 2 picks. Reds also get Jason Vargas who has been tossed around but could actually be a decent end of the rotation guy.

Mariners get another starter in Bronson.. your welcome Junior. Perhaps to ease the ability to deal Bedard once healthy or make a run for the playoffs. King Felix, Bedard, and Arroyo isn't a bad trio in my opinion.

Oakland does what it does and stock piles on young talent with OFer's Balentine and Stubbs, infielder Chris Shelton who is an tearing it up for the M's AAA squad and could be a servicable back up at 3rd for the A's. Oakland also gets flamethrower Josh Roenicke who some tout as a potential Closer.

I could also see maybe inserting Juan Fransisco into the mix and substatuing him with Shelton and Stubbs and adding a lower level arm from the Mariners organization. What are you're thoughts?

hebroncougar
06-28-2009, 10:34 AM
I think Holliday's going to free agency no matter what. Unless he goes to the Mets, Yanks, Dodgers, Angels, or the Sox before the trade deadline (and out of those, I think only the Mets or Angles might have a use for him) where they'll break the bank ahead of the FA market. And quite frankly, with his depressed stats from Oakland, I'm not sure he's going to break the bank.

KoryMac5
06-28-2009, 10:40 AM
Whenever somebody does hypothetical trades like this I always ask them if you were the opposite team in this scenario would you take that return. The Reds come out of the deal with an All Star type player, Oakland receives a ton of potential for there rental of Holliday, and the Mariners receive a pitcher with a 5.00 ERA that eats innings, even Bavasi would not do this deal.

I think the other thing that teams need to find out is whether or not Boras and Holliday are willing to offer clubs a 72 hour window. Boras strikes me as a guy who would rather take his client to the open market than negotiate exclusively with only one team.

HokieRed
06-28-2009, 10:53 AM
The fetishism over Matt Holliday continues to fascinate. Gomes is now at 1.034 and Nix at .825. Clearly LF is not the problem. So, if we acquire Holliday, does Bruce sit?

redsfandan
06-28-2009, 10:54 AM
Interesting trade. It's obvious you put some thought into it. But I think Arroyo would have the most appeal to a team with a good chance at the playoffs. Right now Seattle is only 3 games out but I don't think they'd be the favorites to win that division especially now that Beltre is sidelined. (And the wild-card is even less likely) As far as the long-term view, I've had the impression that Seattle has some decent pitching depth so it probably wouldn't help in that respect either.

I understand people have favorite players that they'd love to see play for the home team. I just have doubts that Holliday would be THAT much of an improvement in left even accounting for the shift to a better hitters park.

The biggest need, by far Imo both this year and in the future, is a shortstop. Arguably the best possible shortstop candidate for a trade is Tejeda. About to be a FA, big contract, would be an improvement offensively (not so much defensively though), Houstons chances for the playoffs may be a little less than ours, and he's already 35 so he wouldn't exactly be the ideal choice to help them down the road. Probably wouldn't happen either but I'd rather have him for a 3 month rental.

nate
06-28-2009, 11:06 AM
The fetishism over Matt Holliday continues to fascinate. Gomes is now at 1.034 and Nix at .825. Clearly LF is not the problem. So, if we acquire Holliday, does Bruce sit?

Not that I'm hardcore "for" getting Holliday but using a handful of ABs to definitively say Gomes and Nix > Holliday doesn't make much sense. Especially when one considers that Holliday would going back to a "Coors-like" environment.

We're talking a career .926 OPS vs. < .800 (Gomes) and < .700 (Nix).

alexad
06-28-2009, 11:58 AM
I do not give up the prospects that you mentioned for Holliday. I think that is overpaying.

redsfandan
06-28-2009, 12:10 PM
Not that I'm hardcore "for" getting Holliday but using a handful of ABs to definitively say Gomes and Nix > Holliday doesn't make much sense. Especially when one considers that Holliday would going back to a "Coors-like" environment.

We're talking a career .926 OPS vs. < .800 (Gomes) and < .700 (Nix).

I don't think anyone is saying that the combo of Nix/Gomes is better than Holliday. Just that they're close. It's not like 2 outfielders being close to 1 outfielder in production is an insult to the 1 outfielder. Holliday is a good outfielder. I think everyone would agree on that. Whether he'd be as good here as he was in Colorado is hard to say. But as far as the OPS of Gomes/Nix THIS year:

Nix vs RHP .858 OPS
Gomes vs LHP 1.111

Gomes has always hit lefties well. One really bad year spent on the bench with a really bad babip. The rest of his career his OPS vs lefties is well over .950. A huge chunk of the MLB abs for Nix were at ages 22-24. He almost has twice as many abs this year as the last 3 years combined. He just seems like a late bloomer Nady to me. I just don't see left as a big need right now.

Tony Cloninger
06-28-2009, 12:44 PM
If McClure and Maloney are flyball type pitchers....wouldn't those 2 along with Todd Frazier be a good starting point to offer Oakland?

nate
06-28-2009, 12:46 PM
I don't think anyone is saying that the combo of Nix/Gomes is better than Holliday. Just that they're close. It's not like 2 outfielders being close to 1 outfielder in production is an insult to the 1 outfielder. Holliday is a good outfielder. I think everyone would agree on that. Whether he'd be as good here as he was in Colorado is hard to say. But as far as the OPS of Gomes/Nix THIS year:

Nix vs RHP .858 OPS
Gomes vs LHP 1.111

Gomes has always hit lefties well. One really bad year spent on the bench with a really bad babip. The rest of his career his OPS vs lefties is well over .950. A huge chunk of the MLB abs for Nix were at ages 22-24. He almost has twice as many abs this year as the last 3 years combined. He just seems like a late bloomer Nady to me. I just don't see left as a big need right now.

All I'm saying is that it's a bit early to use those numbers and especially the splits to say something definitive about Nix/Gomes.

HokieRed
06-28-2009, 01:10 PM
I think one thing you can say definitively based on the couple hundred at-bats of Nix and Gomes is that LF is not the offensive problem on this team. So unless you're going to play Holliday somewhere else, you're not going to get a lot of return for him. And Beane will, as he has made clear, make you pay dearly.

OnBaseMachine
06-28-2009, 01:12 PM
No thanks on Holliday. There's no way I would give up good prospects for a three month rental like Holliday.

nate
06-28-2009, 01:13 PM
I think one thing you can say definitively based on the couple hundred at-bats of Nix and Gomes is that LF is not the offensive problem on this team. So unless you're going to play Holliday somewhere else, you're not going to get a lot of return for him. And Beane will, as he has made clear, make you pay dearly.

Reds LF OPS+: 89.

Not a black hole, but not average either.

mth123
06-28-2009, 01:18 PM
Reds LF OPS+: 89.

Not a black hole, but not average either.

That includes horrible Aprils from Dickerson and Hairston. Getting the CF types out of LF solved a lot of that problem.

nate
06-28-2009, 01:25 PM
That includes horrible Aprils from Dickerson and Hairston. Getting the CF types out of LF solved a lot of that problem.

Indeed.

RedEye
06-28-2009, 02:56 PM
I don't think anyone is saying that the combo of Nix/Gomes is better than Holliday. Just that they're close. It's not like 2 outfielders being close to 1 outfielder in production is an insult to the 1 outfielder. Holliday is a good outfielder. I think everyone would agree on that. Whether he'd be as good here as he was in Colorado is hard to say. But as far as the OPS of Gomes/Nix THIS year:

Nix vs RHP .858 OPS
Gomes vs LHP 1.111

Gomes has always hit lefties well. One really bad year spent on the bench with a really bad babip. The rest of his career his OPS vs lefties is well over .950. A huge chunk of the MLB abs for Nix were at ages 22-24. He almost has twice as many abs this year as the last 3 years combined. He just seems like a late bloomer Nady to me. I just don't see left as a big need right now.

I was under the impression from previous threads that Holliday is also a superior fielder to the Gomes/Nix two-headed monster. I can't say I'm completely pro-Holliday given the amount of players/money it would likely take to land him. I do think, however, that he would add a lot of stability the the team on both offense and defense. I could definitely handle a Votto-Holliday-Bruce combo in the middle of the order for the next few years.

In response to the point of this thread--the hypothetical trade--I agree that the M's would be unlikely to do this deal. I think when they dealt Adam Jones they were viewing Balentien as part of their long-term future. I could be wrong though.

flyer85
06-28-2009, 03:17 PM
why would the Reds want to sign Holliday(a Boras client) long term? It would likely be a disaster. The evidence is pretty strong that the 800 OPS 2009 Holliday is the real Holliday.

Big Klu
06-28-2009, 03:23 PM
why would the Reds want to sign Holliday(a Boras client) long term? It would likely be a disaster. The evidence is pretty strong that the 800 OPS 2009 Holliday is the real Holliday.

Bingo!

Benihana
06-28-2009, 03:32 PM
If McClure and Maloney are flyball type pitchers....wouldn't those 2 along with Todd Frazier be a good starting point to offer Oakland?

I like trading LeCure and Maloney, but I wouldn't part with Frazier in that deal. I'd put Heisey and/or Francisco in there before I'd offer up Frazier.

RedEye
06-28-2009, 04:11 PM
why would the Reds want to sign Holliday(a Boras client) long term? It would likely be a disaster. The evidence is pretty strong that the 800 OPS 2009 Holliday is the real Holliday.

I think folks are saying that the .800 OPS might project closer to .900 in GABP. If that's the case, he's more worth it--but still quite expensive.

If Holliday could be close to the Holliday of old in Cincinnati, I think you have to look at what he'd add to what the team already has in order to figure his value. If you put a .900 OPS between Votto and Bruce with good D in the OF, I would imagine you could add a few more wins per year. I suppose if he could give 3 or 4 more wins to an 85-win team in need of that one element to put them over the top, then a long-term, expensive contract would make sense. I'm just not sure that this Reds team is quite up to that level yet--in which case he may only make them into an 83 to 85-win team, and would not be worth the dough.

Is this making sense at all?

Reds/Flyers Fan
06-28-2009, 04:36 PM
why would the Reds want to sign Holliday(a Boras client) long term? It would likely be a disaster. The evidence is pretty strong that the 800 OPS 2009 Holliday is the real Holliday.

:rolleyes:

Guess Gomes/Nix/insert-fodder-here is better than a perennial .325-hitting All-Star who would treat GABP like Williamsport.

flyer85
06-28-2009, 05:46 PM
:rolleyes:

Guess Gomes/Nix/insert-fodder-here is better than a perennial coors field miragefixed that for ya

Reds/Flyers Fan
06-28-2009, 05:49 PM
GABP is far more of a bandbox than coors field. The park in Denver today plays nothing like it did 5-10 years ago.

flyer85
06-28-2009, 05:52 PM
GABP is far more of a bandbox than coors field. The park in Denver today plays nothing like it did 5-10 years ago.amazing that his 2009 numbers looks a lot like his career numbers away from Coors. A complete fluke I'm sure.

nate
06-28-2009, 05:55 PM
fixed that for ya

Not really. Even his "Away" splits are better than either of Nix or Gomes career numbers.

Again, were he to come here, he'd be in a Coors-like environment.

I'm not suggesting the Reds get him, but to argue that he's terrible outside of Coors is specious.

PuffyPig
06-28-2009, 05:56 PM
:rolleyes:

Guess Gomes/Nix/insert-fodder-here is better than a perennial .325-hitting All-Star who would treat GABP like Williamsport.

LF is an easy postion to fill and get a 825 + OPS.

For cheap.

We have done it this year (by far) with a couple of retreads.

Why pay a bunch of prospects and pay a huge long term deal to get, more or less, the same? Even if it's a little better.

We should never tie up a huge amount of payroll on a LF.

Benihana
06-28-2009, 05:59 PM
We should never tie up a huge amount of payroll on a LF.

And that includes he of which we do not speak. :p:

cincinnati chili
06-28-2009, 07:59 PM
I imagine I've seen Holliday play as much or more than anyone posting on this board. If you stick Holliday in between Votto and Bruce, this lineup goes from subpar to good instantly.

*BaseClogger*
06-28-2009, 08:07 PM
The Reds need a shortstop...

OnBaseMachine
06-28-2009, 08:12 PM
The Reds need a shortstop...

Yep.

I'm trying to think of a solid shortstop who may be available. Two names popped into my mind - Yunel Escobar and Clint Barmes. Unfortunately, it looks like Barmes has taken over at second base in Colorado so he may no longer be available. Escobar is a solid hitter but his defense at SS has taken a step back this year. I'd still take a chance on him though.

Brutus
06-28-2009, 08:30 PM
why would the Reds want to sign Holliday(a Boras client) long term? It would likely be a disaster. The evidence is pretty strong that the 800 OPS 2009 Holliday is the real Holliday.

Listen, I am not advocating trading for Holliday. I do NOT think he's a Coors Field mirage, as his road OPS improved every single season he was in the major leagues before this year. That cannot be ignored.

However, because I feel the Reds are just fine at left field, I don't see a reason to spend the money at that position when it would not be much of an upgrade (and I suppose the case could be made as long as Nix and Gomes continue at this pace, it's not an ugprade).

But...

If you're going to bust his chops for playing in Coors Field, you need to also go easy on him for playing in Oakland. After all, only three ballparks in Major League baseball have surrendered fewer home runs this season than Oakland Coliseum. If it's going to be held against him for playing in a hitter-friendly park, then at least be fair and give him the benefit of some doubt playing in a pitcher-friendly park this year.

Now again, I am not on the Holliday bandwagon any longer. Nix/Gomes have quelled my reservations enough to say I think SS is the position of need now for the Reds (although an Adrian Beltre acquisition still appeals to my tastes). I simply think the rumors of Holliday's demise due to his leaving Denver have been exaggerated.

RedEye
06-28-2009, 08:38 PM
Nix/Gomes have quelled my reservations enough to say I think SS is the position of need now for the Reds (although an Adrian Beltre acquisition still appeals to my tastes).

I think Beltre's shoulder surgery might finally put our collective dreams of acquiring him to rest.

Brutus
06-28-2009, 08:41 PM
I think Beltre's shoulder surgery might finally put our collective dreams of acquiring him to rest.

good point. saw that the other day and forgot about it.

Reds/Flyers Fan
06-28-2009, 09:14 PM
I imagine I've seen Holliday play as much or more than anyone posting on this board. If you stick Holliday in between Votto and Bruce, this lineup goes from subpar to good instantly.

:thumbup:

Living in Rockies territory and going to see them play on a regular basis, I agree. But since Colorado (and now Oakland) are teams that are never on espin, it's easy to jump to conclusions on Matt Holliday.

This guy can hit and hit better than anyone we've seen in Cincinnati in a long time. He would solidify an awesome lineup for seasons to come.

And then, of course, there's Laynce Nix. :rolleyes:

flyer85
06-28-2009, 09:26 PM
it's easy to jump to conclusions on Matt Holliday.

or maybe some just analyze the numbers and don't pay attention to the hype

Reds/Flyers Fan
06-28-2009, 09:42 PM
Hype? Geez.

Hype is Jay Bruce.

Reality is Matt Holliday:
Career (5+ seasons) .315 BA, 204 doubles, 136 HRs, 522 RBIs; All-Star every season since 2006; Silver Slugger every season since 2007; 2007 NL MVP runner up (would have won it had he played on the East Coast); 2007 NLCS MVP; in 2007 he became only the 13th major league player in the last 45 years to finish a season with at least 200 hits and 50 doubles; and in 2009 he was named No. 35 on the Sporting News' list of the 50 greatest current players in baseball.

Oh, and he lead his team to the World Series.

Some hype.

flyer85
06-28-2009, 09:44 PM
Hype? Geez.

hype is Holliday at Coors ... reality is Holliday away from Coors

bucksfan2
06-28-2009, 09:47 PM
hype is Holliday at Coors ... reality is Holliday away from Coors

Hype or not you put Holliday on the Reds they are a much better team. Holliday is better that the best of the Nix/Gomes combination. Sure Coors field may have inflated his stats but he would be playing roughly half of his games at GABP which has been known as a hitters paradise.

flyer85
06-28-2009, 09:50 PM
Hype or not you put Holliday on the Reds they are a much better team.
unless you project him as a well over 900 OPS it won't be happening ... and there is no way to get anywhere near that projection when analyzing his numbers away from Coors. Holliday is just one of many to have numbers take a serious nosedive after leaving the friendly environment of reduced air friction(which has numerous effects, it isn't just about the ball traveling farther)

Reds/Flyers Fan
06-28-2009, 09:52 PM
I really don't get the Coors Field obsession when the Reds play in GABP plus play in a division with several hitter friendly parks. And while Holliday played home games in Coors, his divisional road games were in nasty hitters parks like San Diego and L.A.

Matt Holliday is not Dante Bichette. And Coors Field 2005-2008 is not Coors Field pre-2000.

Degenerate39
06-28-2009, 09:59 PM
I really don't get the Coors Field obsession when the Reds play in GABP plus play in a division with several hitter friendly parks. And while Holliday played home games in Coors, his divisional road games were in nasty hitters parks like San Diego and L.A.

Matt Holliday is not Dante Bichette. And Coors Field 2005-2008 is not Coors Field pre-2000.

I was going to say the same thing. It's not like the Reds are playing in a pitcher's park.

flyer85
06-28-2009, 10:00 PM
I really don't get the Coors Field obsession when the Reds play in GABP plus play in a division with several hitter friendly parks. And while Holliday played home games in Coors, his divisional road games were in nasty hitters parks like San Diego and L.A.

Matt Holliday is not Dante Bichette. And Coors Field 2005-2008 is not Coors Field pre-2000.
it is interesting that 2006-2008 Hollidays OBP away from Coors was .370 ... his OBP in 2009 is .370(must be a complete fluke)

I really don't get the obsession with ignoring splits that had a difference in OPS that was close to 300 over the course of a coors field career. It is a huge red flag that some want to ignore because there is no way to explain it away. Especially when the first live test case(2009 numbers) seem to indicate that the real Holliday is much more like his non coors numbers than anything he put up in Coors field.

Is it possible that a 900+ away from Coors player exists in the body Holliday but at this point it isn't particularly likely

Brutus
06-28-2009, 10:05 PM
I really don't get the Coors Field obsession when the Reds play in GABP plus play in a division with several hitter friendly parks. And while Holliday played home games in Coors, his divisional road games were in nasty hitters parks like San Diego and L.A.

Matt Holliday is not Dante Bichette. And Coors Field 2005-2008 is not Coors Field pre-2000.

Not to mention, GABP has had a higher park factor quotient for home runs in four of the past five seasons.

Right now, Holliday is playing close to 60-65 percent of his games in Oakland, Anaheim and Seattle - pitcher-friendly ballparks. In other words, his real talent level is probably somewhere in between his stats this year in a hitter-depressed run environment and the last several years in a hitter-heaven.

Here is his 3-year ROAD splits:


Split AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB HBP SO SB CS AVG OBP SLG OPS
Away 869 147 257 58 4 33 120 94 11 184 30 7 .296 .370 .486 .856

Seems like just as much substance as hype.

flyer85
06-28-2009, 10:08 PM
Seems like just as much substance as hype.and 856 OPS ... nothing special.

Coors increases every type of hit substantially(1b, 2b, 3b, HR). GABP increases only one type of hit(HR) and suppresses all others, some substantially(which made it easy to predict serious struggles for Taveras).

cincinnati chili
06-28-2009, 10:10 PM
or maybe some just analyze the numbers and don't pay attention to the hype

I don't have my baseball prospectus subscription anymore, but their EQA adjusts for ballpark factors. If anyone can run his numbers for '05-'07, I'd be surprised if too many guys not named Pujols were any better.

He battled injuries last year, but still was pretty good.

He struggled in April this year.

He's fine. He's 29. He's in a contract year. As rent-a-players go, there isn't anything better that's available.

RedEye
06-28-2009, 10:11 PM
and 856 OPS ... nothing special.

Coors increases every type of hit substantially(1b, 2b, 3b, HR). GABP increases only one type of hit(HR) and suppresses all others, some substantially(which made it easy to predict serious struggles for Taveras).

Really? I hadn't heard that. Where's the data? That's really interesting.

Krusty
06-28-2009, 10:14 PM
I have been pushing for Holliday for the stretch run. And, I don't think you have to give up A-type prospects for a two to three month rental. If you think Gomes/Nix is the answer in leftfield.....just look at their track record.

Acquire Holliday to go with Encarnacion, Votto, Bruce and Phillips for the second half and you'll have to like their chances to win the Central. Acquire Holliday and it doesn't matter what kind of offense you get from shortstop as long as you get good defense.

Brutus
06-28-2009, 10:23 PM
and 856 OPS ... nothing special.

Coors increases every type of hit substantially(1b, 2b, 3b, HR). GABP increases only one type of hit(HR) and suppresses all others, some substantially(which made it easy to predict serious struggles for Taveras).

Not sure where you're getting that. In the past five seasons, GABP has been below average only once each in hits and doubles. Not sure where you're getting this information that GABP somehow 'suppresses' everything else. Heck, each of the past seven seasons, GABP has played as a park that has runs scored more than 80 percent of the parks in MLB.

Park factors for each park, 2009-2005


Rk Park Name Runs HR H 2B 3B BB
6 Great American Ball Park 1.133 1.192 1.071 1.102 1.721 1.092
7 Great American Ball Park 1.069 1.230 1.010 1.017 1.038 1.013
7 Great American Ball Park 1.095 1.351 0.971 1.051 0.815 1.036
1 Great American Ball Park 1.153 1.275 1.026 0.929 0.400 1.065
4 Great American Ball Park 1.125 1.246 1.064 1.183 0.536 0.958
2 Coors Field (Denver, Colorado) 1.260 1.006 1.168 1.181 2.063 1.009
3 Coors Field (Denver, Colorado) 1.126 1.299 1.098 1.048 1.387 0.919
3 Coors Field (Denver, Colorado) 1.160 1.218 1.120 1.256 1.513 0.943
2 Coors Field (Denver, Colorado) 1.149 1.167 1.141 1.006 1.224 1.067
2 Coors Field (Denver, Colorado) 1.276 1.097 1.246 1.138 1.444 1.038



You would be correct in stating that Coors has an overall larger effect on all hits because of the thin air in Denver. However, it seems you're overstating the impact of hitting in Cincinnati.

As far as the .856 OPS - that's hardly anything to sneeze about. This offseason, people were clamoring for an 856 type of hitter. Now it's nothing "special?"

Reds/Flyers Fan
06-28-2009, 10:28 PM
Acquire Holliday and it doesn't matter what kind of offense you get from shortstop as long as you get good defense.

:beerme:

And it's about time the Reds made a serious effort to win something - this year. Or they could just sit back and let Matt Holliday go to St. Louis or Chicago or to some other team that actually has a front-office pulse.

Brutus
06-28-2009, 10:32 PM
I have been pushing for Holliday for the stretch run. And, I don't think you have to give up A-type prospects for a two to three month rental. If you think Gomes/Nix is the answer in leftfield.....just look at their track record.

Acquire Holliday to go with Encarnacion, Votto, Bruce and Phillips for the second half and you'll have to like their chances to win the Central. Acquire Holliday and it doesn't matter what kind of offense you get from shortstop as long as you get good defense.

I don't think we can really use Nix's track record because he simply has not had many opportunities - and the ones he's received, injuries have greatly diminished his ability to be productive. So for that reason, I'm not sure anything he's done (or not done) previously is really a great enough sample.

Gomes has proven he can hit at this level. Certainly his rate stats would suffer if he played every day - but that's the beauty of it, he does not need to play every day. The Reds are in a position to be able to use the two of these players and play them to their strengths. Collectively, you have now a position where they're getting good production. I'd love to have Holliday, but it's simply unnecessary now IMHO.

The boost Holliday would give over the platoon is probably not nearly as large a run-production boost as they could get at other positions (SS comes to mind). I would say 3B or CF, but I feel the Reds have adequate upgrades in-house to make them a better team.

Will M
06-28-2009, 11:30 PM
The boost Holliday would give over the platoon is probably not nearly as large a run-production boost as they could get at other positions (SS comes to mind). I would say 3B or CF, but I feel the Reds have adequate upgrades in-house to make them a better team.


:clap:

mth123
06-29-2009, 07:23 AM
Holiday in LF with Gomes sliding over to platoon with Bruce would help. Dickerson in CF with Nix the LH bat on the bench seems like a good plan with an actual useful bat on the bench for once. The gains would be pretty good as long as Taveras stays out of the picture.

Its really about what it would take to get him. I think the message to the fans about trying to win and bringing in a perceived bonafied star may have some real impact on this team's attendance that may actually carry over. Having an ownership that seems like it actually cares might make a dent in the overall apathy in Cincy. Still, its probably not worth a lot more than taking his salary and a couple decent prospects. I'd offer Stubbs and Roenicke and some lesser lights like Lecure and Ondrusek to finish it off. That may still be an overpayment. I might ask the A's to take somebody like Lincoln off my hands to help with the money a bit (and it helps with next year's budget).

redsfandan
06-29-2009, 07:33 AM
I have to admit mth123 that outfield would have some appeal to me for the 2nd half. Keeping Taveras out of the picture would be the problem though. But I still think an .850 OPS ss would help ALOT more than an .850 OPS leftfielder.

If we did acquire Holliday whatever prospects we'd give up would be replaced by the 2 draft picks we'd get when he declines arbitration.

RedlegJake
06-29-2009, 10:00 AM
and 856 OPS ... nothing special.

Coors increases every type of hit substantially(1b, 2b, 3b, HR). GABP increases only one type of hit(HR) and suppresses all others, some substantially(which made it easy to predict serious struggles for Taveras).

BINGO! Everyone thinks GAB is some kind of hitters haven when the reality is it is not. Only the home run numbers are influenced favorably at GAB. For instance for several years now ground ball BABIP at GAB is below league average and that's with the Reds defense over those years. GAB ia not a hitter's haven. It is home run friendly but if a pitcher can keep it in the park it actually plays slightly favorable to pitchers.

Holliday is a good hitter but he's not a great one. I don't want the Reds paying what he would cost to sign him long term and to land him - combined the price is simply too high. Remember you pay for the margin of difference in production between Nix/Gomes and Holliday and I believe Matt would have the edge but not a large enough one to be either worth the cost, or to make a big enough impact on the lineup.

PuffyPig
06-29-2009, 10:28 AM
I have been pushing for Holliday for the stretch run. And, I don't think you have to give up A-type prospects for a two to three month rental.


I don't agree. The A's are asking for Wallace from the Cards as the starting point. Alonso would have to be on the table for us to get Holliday. Will they get theses type of players? I'm betting some team will blink and give up a package of propsects led by a primo one like Wallace or Alonso.

And if we are going to go that route, we ned to get a long term answer at SS.

Improving the SS postion while living with retreads at LF (like Nix and Gomes) will improve the team much more.

Benihana
06-29-2009, 04:22 PM
Here's an interesting question:

Would you trade EdE straight-up for Holliday?

TRF
06-29-2009, 04:30 PM
Here's an interesting question:

Would you trade EdE straight-up for Holliday?

And replace EE right now with WHO?

cause everyone that's played there this season has been a big bag of crap.

*BaseClogger*
06-29-2009, 04:34 PM
Yep.

I'm trying to think of a solid shortstop who may be available. Two names popped into my mind - Yunel Escobar and Clint Barmes. Unfortunately, it looks like Barmes has taken over at second base in Colorado so he may no longer be available. Escobar is a solid hitter but his defense at SS has taken a step back this year. I'd still take a chance on him though.

This exchange will get buried amongst the arguement about Holliday, but shortstop should be the real target. I like Asdrubal Cabrera. And what about Christian Guzman?

Homer Bailey
06-29-2009, 04:34 PM
Here's an interesting question:

Would you trade EdE straight-up for Holliday?

The upgrade at LF would be more than offset than the downgrade at 3B.

Homer Bailey
06-29-2009, 04:35 PM
This exchange will get buried amongst the arguement about Holliday, but shortstop should be the real target. I like Asdrubal Cabrera. And what about Christian Guzman?

I know the Astros probably wouldn't, but I'd love Miguel Tejada despite his below average D.

*BaseClogger*
06-29-2009, 04:35 PM
Here's an interesting question:

Would you trade EdE straight-up for Holliday?

So lets trade the only answer for third base the rest of the season for a player who marginally upgrades a position which already posseses decent production? :dunno:

*BaseClogger*
06-29-2009, 04:36 PM
I know the Astros probably wouldn't, but I'd love Miguel Tejada despite his below average D.

Me too, depending on the cost...

BRM
06-29-2009, 04:37 PM
An .856 OPS would put him 4th in the NL among leftfielders, FWIW. What is the Gomes/Nix platoon putting up?

Benihana
06-29-2009, 04:37 PM
And replace EE right now with WHO?

cause everyone that's played there this season has been a big bag of crap.

Julio Lugo maybe?

Frazier should hopefully be ready to take the reigns for next year. Not saying I would do it, just thought I'd throw it out there- especially to those that are firmly entrenched in the Holliday camp. It is almost cost neutral for the Reds, and solves Oakland's 3B problem for the next couple years.

Lugo 3B
Dickerson CF
Votto 1B
Holliday LF
Bruce RF
Phillips 2B
Hernandez/Hanigan C
Janish SS

for the rest of 2009 looks better than what we've been throwing out there.

bucksfan2
06-29-2009, 04:40 PM
Here's an interesting question:

Would you trade EdE straight-up for Holliday?

With out a doubt.

I think Holliday gives the Reds an offense right up there with Milwaukee in the NL Central. It also takes some pressure away from Votto and Phillips to be the sole run producers on the team. With Holliday the Reds are a team that could rip off a 10 game winning streak. Without Holliday I don't think that is possible.

I am willing to give up more to get Holliday because it makes the Reds legitimate contenders. I read somewhere that Buster Olney thinks the way the next FA market is shaping up Holliday is looking at a contract in the range of 3 years 30-40M. IMO the Reds could afford Holliday but if they aren't able to resign they would get a couple of high picks in next years draft.

Benihana
06-29-2009, 04:42 PM
With out a doubt.

I think Holliday gives the Reds an offense right up there with Milwaukee in the NL Central. It also takes some pressure away from Votto and Phillips to be the sole run producers on the team. With Holliday the Reds are a team that could rip off a 10 game winning streak. Without Holliday I don't think that is possible.

I am willing to give up more to get Holliday because it makes the Reds legitimate contenders. I read somewhere that Buster Olney thinks the way the next FA market is shaping up Holliday is looking at a contract in the range of 3 years 30-40M. IMO the Reds could afford Holliday but if they aren't able to resign they would get a couple of high picks in next years draft.

Yep. The defense would be significantly better as well with Janish at SS, Lugo at 3B, and Holliday in LF. It would also solve both the leadoff and the (RH-hitting) cleanup problem.

Maybe you could even sell high on Gomes and package him with Cozart and one of the CF prospects for Yunel Escobar. Atlanta is looking for a cheap, productive OF and is supposedly growing tired of Escobar's attitude. Just sayin...

OnBaseMachine
06-29-2009, 04:45 PM
This exchange will get buried amongst the arguement about Holliday, but shortstop should be the real target. I like Asdrubal Cabrera. And what about Christian Guzman?

I would pass on Guzman. He's a below average shortstop at this point in his career. Asdrubal Cabrera? I like him a lot and he was one of the first players that popped into my mind but why would the Indians trade him? He's young, cheap, and can play a solid defensive shortstop, not to mention he can hit a little too.

Benihana
06-29-2009, 04:48 PM
Asdrubal Cabrera? I like him a lot and he was one of the first players that popped into my mind but why would the Indians trade him? He's young, cheap, and can play a solid defensive shortstop, not to mention he can hit a little too.

Doubtful for all the reasons you mentioned plus the fact that they've already moved Peralta to 3B to make room for him.

*BaseClogger*
06-29-2009, 04:50 PM
An .856 OPS would put him 4th in the NL among leftfielders, FWIW. What is the Gomes/Nix platoon putting up?

Holliday is hitting .274/.372/.430 this season. Combined, Gomes/Nix are hitting .285/.352/.540...

*BaseClogger*
06-29-2009, 04:52 PM
How does getting Holliday make the Reds instant contenders? I still don't understand that...

*BaseClogger*
06-29-2009, 04:55 PM
Julio Lugo maybe?

The difference between Holliday and Nix/Gomes isn't all that much different than the gap between Lugo and Encarnacion.


It is almost cost neutral for the Reds, and solves Oakland's 3B problem for the next couple years.

EE solves Cincinnati's 3B problem for the next couple years too.


Lugo 3B
Dickerson CF
Votto 1B
Holliday LF
Bruce RF
Phillips 2B
Hernandez/Hanigan C
Janish SS

for the rest of 2009 looks better than what we've been throwing out there.


Looks can be deceiving...

TRF
06-29-2009, 04:55 PM
Count me as a guy that wants no part of Lugo. I don't care much for chemistry arguments, but the guy slammed his wife's head onto the hood of a car. Let him go elsewhere.

*BaseClogger*
06-29-2009, 04:56 PM
Asdrubal Cabrera? I like him a lot and he was one of the first players that popped into my mind but why would the Indians trade him? He's young, cheap, and can play a solid defensive shortstop, not to mention he can hit a little too.

We might have to overwhelm them, but I would be all for doing that. Heck, I'd give them Alonso for him...

nate
06-29-2009, 04:57 PM
How does getting Holliday make the Reds instant contenders? I still don't understand that...

I don't think it does either. The biggest jolt will be from getting offense out of 3B and continuing to play Dickerson in CF.

TRF
06-29-2009, 05:12 PM
We might have to overwhelm them, but I would be all for doing that. Heck, I'd give them Alonso for him...

I'd do that deal as well.

You know who I'd really like to get, but no way is he available, Ben Zobrist. Akinori Iwamura might return in 6 weeks which puts Zobrist back into a utility role next year.

Benihana
06-29-2009, 05:22 PM
Count me as a guy that wants no part of Lugo. I don't care much for chemistry arguments, but the guy slammed his wife's head onto the hood of a car. Let him go elsewhere.

Between proposing the acquisitions of Lugo, Rios, Escobar, Milledge, and Dukes- you can call me Bob Huggins!

TRF
06-29-2009, 05:47 PM
Between proposing the acquisitions of Lugo, Rios, Escobar, Milledge, and Dukes- you can call me Bob Huggins!

I'm kind of a hypocrite as I have advocated getting Dukes. I don't recall the full story on him though. Don't remember him being arrested.

Big Klu
06-29-2009, 07:22 PM
Here's an interesting question:

Would you trade EdE straight-up for Holliday?

Absolutely NOT! (And I'm not the biggest EE fan--I don't dislike him, but I don't think he is going to be anything more than what he is.)

But there is NO WAY I do that trade.

HokieRed
06-29-2009, 07:35 PM
Absolutely NOT! (And I'm not the biggest EE fan--I don't dislike him, but I don't think he is going to be anything more than what he is.)

But there is NO WAY I do that trade.

I'm not a believer that Holliday represents much of an upgrade over our left field platoon, but given EE's salary next year, and the compensatory picks, I'd be inclined to think about this one very seriously. I don't think Beane would do the trade.

traderumor
06-29-2009, 11:04 PM
Count me as a guy that wants no part of Lugo. I don't care much for chemistry arguments, but the guy slammed his wife's head onto the hood of a car. Let him go elsewhere.Man, not excusing the act of violence, but that was several years ago and no incidents since. That should be a non-factor. I don't think he'd help for baseball reasons.

cincinnati chili
08-02-2009, 01:32 PM
Holliday's line for 2009 is now .314/.404/.507/.911, and he hasn't played a single game at Coors Field. Just sayin.

Joseph
08-02-2009, 01:41 PM
Holliday's line for 2009 is now .314/.404/.507/.911, and he hasn't played a single game at Coors Field. Just sayin.

Yeah but all those hits that would have been fly ball outs in other parks ended up base hits in cavernous Oakland, so clearly that line is skewed.

;)

Will M
08-02-2009, 02:01 PM
A guy with a line of .281/.372/.578/.950 would sure look good in LF.
Oh wait.

Holliday would not have solved the Reds problems. The 2009 reds are terrible because of...
1. Alex Gonzalex playing SS with no other options
2. Willy Taveras playing CF
3. Bruce's poor play and then injury
4. Volquez's injuries
5. Having no one at 3B for most of the season
6. etc, etc, etc

Reds/Flyers Fan
08-02-2009, 05:06 PM
Holliday's line for 2009 is now .314/.404/.507/.911, and he hasn't played a single game at Coors Field. Just sayin.

Certain people on here don't want anything to do with those stats. After all, Nix/Gomes are just as good :rolleyes:

CTA513
08-02-2009, 05:45 PM
Certain people on here don't want anything to do with those stats. After all, Nix/Gomes are just as good :rolleyes:

You have to live with Nix and Gomes because the Reds don't plan on adding anymore payroll.

RedLegSuperStar
08-02-2009, 09:22 PM
You add Holliday in the offseason if St. Louis doesn't resign him first. I say you give up the Draft Picks for Holliday aswell and you have a potential lineup like:

Heisey/Stubbs
Rolen
Votto
Holliday
Bruce
Phillips
Hanigan
SS

That lineup should produce and Holliday regardless the knocks he recieves about being a Coors field only hitter he is worth the 15 million/yr that he should get on the open market.

If Francisco Cordero is worth almost that then so is Holliday. So if the Reds could eat some of his contract and deal Coco to a contender that money can go towards FA. Same with Arroyo and/or Harang. Taveras would be huge as well.. and if the Yankess had interest in signing Corey Patterson then Willy Taveras might not be to far out of their league. Who takes these guys place? Coco's spot could be Carlos Fishers with Pedro Viola taking over in relief.. or a healthy Bill Bray. Harang or Arroyo could be filled by Free Agency with the likes of Rich Harden, Eric Bedard, Brad Penny, etc.. or Matt Moloney could be an option as well. This team needs to shed dead weight and have a new look come 2010 if it wants to contend.. PERZIOD

Reds/Flyers Fan
08-02-2009, 09:32 PM
The Reds are searching for ways to break this abysmal 10-year drought? Signing Matt Holliday would go a long way toward doing that. And I don't need to hear the 400 reasons why signing him would be impractical for this franchise. No playoffs since 1995 is pretty impractical also.

Stormy
08-02-2009, 09:38 PM
The Reds are searching for ways to break this abysmal 10-year drought? Signing Matt Holliday would go a long way toward doing that. And I don't need to hear the 400 reasons why signing him would be impractical for this franchise. No playoffs since 1995 is pretty impractical also.

Then they should have traded for him, and hoped that his production in GABP (and other intangibles he experienced along the way) persuaded him to want to extend with them. After Holliday helps slug the Cards to the playoffs, boasting great 2H numbers and experiencing StL's carnival baseball atmosphere, in the process... there is NO way he lands anywhere else. IMO We were too busy indulging Walt's nostalgia for a player acquisition that helped him 7 years ago, to actually be bothered with adding a player who could be a part of our future (whether that be Holliday, or someone else who fit the criteria).

Reds/Flyers Fan
08-02-2009, 10:02 PM
After Holliday helps slug the Cards to the playoffs, boasting great 2H numbers and experiencing StL's carnival baseball atmosphere, in the process... there is NO way he lands anywhere else. IMO .

George Grande posts here? :cool:

Seriously, that's enough to make a Reds fan root for the Cubs to win the division.

Cubs/Cards ... Cards/Cubs ... it's like choosing to die by drowning or burning.

Stormy
08-02-2009, 10:10 PM
George Grande posts here? :cool:

Seriously, that's enough to make a Reds fan root for the Cubs to win the division.

Cubs/Cards ... Cards/Cubs ... it's like choosing to die by drowning or burning.

I detest the Cards, but I've seen this movie before when it comes to them acquiring pending FAs and then extending them (McGwire, Edmonds, Rolen etc...).

RedsManRick
08-02-2009, 10:11 PM
I'd say Holliday either resigns in St. Louis, if he's an atmosphere and comfort sort of guy, or he hits FA and winds up in pinstripes.

I would love to have him, but he's not coming to Cincinnati.

Reds/Flyers Fan
08-02-2009, 10:34 PM
I'd say Holliday either resigns in St. Louis, if he's an atmosphere and comfort sort of guy, or he hits FA and winds up in pinstripes.

I would love to have him, but he's not coming to Cincinnati.

I don't know, Holliday strikes me as an NL player.

And the Reds brass has got to know that this fan base is teetering on the brink of oblivion. Another season of trying to pass off loose change like Laynce Nix and Adam Rosales as viable options for season-long contention just won't work anymore. The fan base is comatose.

They need to make a spash in the worst way or risk being relegated to complete irrelevance by the time the Opening Day parade ends.

Matt Holliday or bust in 2010!

Reds/Flyers Fan
08-02-2009, 10:39 PM
Not to mention, signing Matt Holliday would be a great way to stick it to STL, which Cast and Walt have got to be wanting to do.

Stormy
08-02-2009, 10:50 PM
I don't know, Holliday strikes me as an NL player.

Matt Holliday or bust in 2010!

I think he stays in the NL, as well, especially after his rough patch in the AL early in 2009. However, StL has deeper pockets than the Reds, are a perennial contender, and will have an established, positive history with Holliday by years end. What advantage in signing him could the Reds possibly have? Don't lament, we have our marquee signing, a 5+ year past his prime Scott Rolen.

OldXOhio
08-02-2009, 11:36 PM
Matt Holliday is not going to be a Red. Stop teasing yourselves with the notion.

Reds/Flyers Fan
08-02-2009, 11:51 PM
Matt Holliday is not going to be a Red. Stop teasing yourselves with the notion.

Reds ownership must love the low expecations of its fan base and what passes as acceptable around here.

Of course they'll never get a Matt Holliday (or any other player that will help this team actually make the playoffs) if they don't have to.

If I had three wishes, one of them would surely be to own a big-league franchise in a pillow-soft sports town like Cincinnati. :rolleyes:

Krusty
08-03-2009, 07:27 AM
It is sad to think the Reds have sunk to the level of the Bengals.

UKFlounder
08-03-2009, 07:36 AM
I thought of that the other day, but it's not totally accurate - the Bengals have actually been to the playoffs this decade (century).


It is sad to think the Reds have sunk to the level of the Bengals.

Reds/Flyers Fan
08-03-2009, 10:34 AM
It is sad to think the Reds have sunk to the level of the Bengals.

And the Bengals went out this offseason and actually spent some jack to acquire impact players.

The Reds go out and bid against themselves for Willie Taveras.