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Tom Servo
06-28-2009, 02:43 PM
From rotoworld, by way of the Cincinnati Enquirer:



Bronson Arroyo said Sunday he is considering having offseason surgery for his carpal-tunnel syndrome.

Arroyo says the problem has been more of an issue for him off the field than on. "It’s driving me crazy," Arroyo said. "Every single time I get to the hotel room or I’m at the house and it’s 2 o’clock in the morning, I’m irritated because I can’t play the guitar. I just can’t do it, because it gets numb." He said he wouldn't go ahead with the surgery if his recovery would linger into 2010.

Falls City Beer
06-28-2009, 02:44 PM
Wonder how he'd feel about in-season surgery instead?

edabbs44
06-28-2009, 03:25 PM
Irritated b/c he can't play the guitar? Priorities Bronson, priorities.

BCubb2003
06-28-2009, 03:25 PM
It's like the old vaudeville routine: "Doctor, it hurts when I do this." "Well don't do that!"

GAC
06-28-2009, 03:35 PM
"hey doc! Will I be able to play the guitar after the surgery?"

"I see no reason why not"

"Oh that's great doc, because I couldn't play it before."

Strikes Out Looking
06-28-2009, 05:58 PM
"hey doc! Will I be able to play the guitar after the surgery?"

"I see no reason why not"

"Oh that's great doc, because I couldn't play it before."

This post is why I miss rep points!

Falls City Beer
06-28-2009, 07:07 PM
I'm actually pretty serious about hoping Arroyo gets shut down; if they do, they may have to face the fact that they really do need better options in the rotation (assuming Volquez is done for some time, and I can't imagine him returning before the AS break--maybe not till late July).

Brutus
06-28-2009, 07:09 PM
I'm actually pretty serious about hoping Arroyo gets shut down; if they do, they may have to face the fact that they really do need better options in the rotation (assuming Volquez is done for some time, and I can't imagine him returning before the AS break--maybe not till late July).

I really feel like the Reds, even if they are serious about being 'buyers,' might wind up trading Arroyo. It would make sense for a number of reasons, although I guess that's under the assumption they feel like Volquez won't miss a significant amount of time.

wheels
06-28-2009, 07:52 PM
I guess carpal tunnel is what I have.

My hands are numb from the time I wake up until at least noon. It really sucks.

Unassisted
06-28-2009, 09:40 PM
I guess carpal tunnel is what I have.

My hands are numb from the time I wake up until at least noon. It really sucks.I used to work with a guy who had CT and had to sleep with wrist braces to prevent that symptom. The braces kept him from curling his wrists while he slept.

RedsFan75
06-29-2009, 09:02 AM
The location of the numbness is crucial. Is it your thumb and first couple fingers, or your little and ring fingers numb?

One is Carpal Tunnel the other is cubital Tunnel.

But don't take our words for any of this, SEE YOUR DOCTOR!

There could be many issues causing numbness. Trust me on this, DON'T ignore it and just deal with it.

Team Clark
06-29-2009, 09:52 AM
What's strange is that carpal tunnel can be assocaited with your neck. Having your neck out of alignment and/or an impingement can give ALL of the same symptoms of capral tunnel. In any case, see a doctor!

wheels
06-29-2009, 12:56 PM
The location of the numbness is crucial. Is it your thumb and first couple fingers, or your little and ring fingers numb?

One is Carpal Tunnel the other is cubital Tunnel.

But don't take our words for any of this, SEE YOUR DOCTOR!

There could be many issues causing numbness. Trust me on this, DON'T ignore it and just deal with it.


Oh, great.

I do lots of work with my hands, and I'm always in the gym, so I figured it was either fatigue, or carpal tunnel.

Both of my hands get numb, but only in the morning.

I hate going to the doctor. I always feel like I'm gonna leave with a cancer diagnosis or something.

I(heart)Freel
06-29-2009, 03:01 PM
This news simply can't help Arroyo's trade value. Now or in off-season.

icehole3
06-30-2009, 04:12 AM
I really feel like the Reds, even if they are serious about being 'buyers,' might wind up trading Arroyo. It would make sense for a number of reasons, although I guess that's under the assumption they feel like Volquez won't miss a significant amount of time.

he has no trade value, I think he came out with this to kill any last hopes of being traded, no team in their right mind will touch a guy who saying he's hurt.

Highlifeman21
06-30-2009, 07:28 AM
he has no trade value, I think he came out with this to kill any last hopes of being traded, no team in their right mind will touch a guy who saying he's hurt.

Not only does it hurt his trade value, but it hurts his jam value as well. Dude was quoted saying he can't pick up an ax and jam.

Which leaves his only redeeming quality as a singer?

RedsFan75
06-30-2009, 10:39 AM
Which leaves his only redeeming quality as a singer?



ahh... don't you remember the JTM commercials...

KYRedsFan
06-30-2009, 01:44 PM
It's carpal tunnel surgery. If he has the diagnosis, do it. It's not a big deal. More Bronson nonsense IMHO

OnBaseMachine
06-30-2009, 08:45 PM
Bronson needs to have the surgery now. He's becoming a big problem. There's gotta be something wrong because he's not nearly as bad as he's pitching right now.

Falls City Beer
06-30-2009, 08:47 PM
Bronson needs to have the surgery now. He's becoming a big problem. There's gotta be something wrong because he's not nearly as bad as he's pitching right now.

Becoming?

edabbs44
06-30-2009, 09:14 PM
The Arroyo extension is looking worse and worse as the year moves on.

KYRedsFan
06-30-2009, 09:19 PM
Yup, after tonight, it has to stop. Whatever the excuse is, be it the carpal tunnel or a solo acoustic tour, shut him down.

Matt700wlw
06-30-2009, 09:33 PM
Won't happen...Arroyo has a consecutive starts streak on the line.

Chip R
06-30-2009, 09:36 PM
Exactly.

CTA513
06-30-2009, 09:45 PM
Won't happen...Arroyo has a consecutive starts streak on the line.

The Reds should end that streak for him if he keeps pitching like this.

GAC
07-01-2009, 07:33 AM
What I find amazing is that I know co-workers who have (or had) carpal tunnel that daily struggle with doing various tasks at work because of the discomfort and pain. It definitely screws up your routine, and prevents you from doing things you could normally do.

And this organization is running this guy, a professional athlete (pitcher) that puts more wear, tear, and abuse, on his arm/hand then the average worker, out there every fifth day to try and pitch? It's obvious, just by simple observation, that Arroyo can't locate his breaking stuff. And I believe the carpal tunnel is the culprit. And when you really have no fast ball to begin with, it's like throwing a kitty into a pool of sharks.

When he laid an 82 mph fastball into Haren last night, who hit it out of the park, that was about it for me.

So this organization is going to run a less then 100% pitcher out there just because of a consecutive inning streak? I thought it was about giving your team the best chance to win?

I'm going down to see Saturday's game, and was thinking about seeing Sunday's too. Then when I heard that Arroyo is pitching Sunday I said "Why waste my money?"

Chip R
07-01-2009, 09:12 AM
I'm going down to see Saturday's game, and was thinking about seeing Sunday's too. Then when I heard that Arroyo is pitching Sunday I said "Why waste my money?"


Because there is going to be an awesome game beforehand. :D

Kc61
07-01-2009, 10:06 AM
The Arroyo extension is looking worse and worse as the year moves on.

The Reds have received their full money's worth from this contract. Reasonably good pitching over a number of years from a workhorse pitcher who never misses a start and is among the MLB leaders in starts and innings for that period.

Arroyo has good streaks and bad streaks and his current bad streak was probably predictable and is maddening. I don't think he will be re-signed by the Reds and he probably will be on the trade block if not now than in the off-season.

But he has been a pretty valuable pitcher overall.

My hope is that Bailey does well so that the Reds' staff will be able to withstand the inevitable departure of Arroyo or Harang, or possibly both.

GAC
07-01-2009, 10:28 AM
Because there is going to be an awesome game beforehand. :D

Even in a "gentlemans" game Arroyo wouldn't make it out of the 1st inning.

GAC
07-01-2009, 10:31 AM
I don't think he will be re-signed by the Reds and he probably will be on the trade block if not now than in the off-season.

His public disclosure of having carpal tunnel and maybe having off-season surgery, as well as his past few pitching disasters, has made his trade value hit rock bottom this year. Maybe even untradeable. Would you make a trade for this guy and his current contract while witnessing what he's doing?

We be stuck. :D

edabbs44
07-01-2009, 10:38 AM
The Reds have received their full money's worth from this contract. Reasonably good pitching over a number of years from a workhorse pitcher who never misses a start and is among the MLB leaders in starts and innings for that period.

Arroyo has good streaks and bad streaks and his current bad streak was probably predictable and is maddening. I don't think he will be re-signed by the Reds and he probably will be on the trade block if not now than in the off-season.

But he has been a pretty valuable pitcher overall.

My hope is that Bailey does well so that the Reds' staff will be able to withstand the inevitable departure of Arroyo or Harang, or possibly both.

Do you realize that this is the first year of the extenstion he was provided?

OnBaseMachine
07-01-2009, 11:20 AM
The Reds have received their full money's worth from this contract. Reasonably good pitching over a number of years from a workhorse pitcher who never misses a start and is among the MLB leaders in starts and innings for that period.

Arroyo has good streaks and bad streaks and his current bad streak was probably predictable and is maddening. I don't think he will be re-signed by the Reds and he probably will be on the trade block if not now than in the off-season.

But he has been a pretty valuable pitcher overall.

My hope is that Bailey does well so that the Reds' staff will be able to withstand the inevitable departure of Arroyo or Harang, or possibly both.

I agree. I still think the extension was a solid move at the time.

Kc61
07-01-2009, 11:43 AM
Do you realize that this is the first year of the extenstion he was provided?

Yes, but the key point is that Arroyo is only signed through 2010 with a team option/buyout after that.

If he wasn't on the staff this year, who would have replaced him? I'm disappointed with his recent performance too, but it made eminent good sense for Arroyo to be on the staff this season.

And he wasn't signed for huge money, I believe this year is $9 million, and the term of years is not so long -- so his contract is very tradeable.

Arroyo has won 8 games this year. I don't think he has a long term future with the Reds. But let's not criticize the front office for every move they make.

edabbs44
07-01-2009, 12:41 PM
Yes, but the key point is that Arroyo is only signed through 2010 with a team option/buyout after that.

That's a good thing?


If he wasn't on the staff this year, who would have replaced him? I'm disappointed with his recent performance too, but it made eminent good sense for Arroyo to be on the staff this season.

Who would have replaced his 6 ERA? They could have found someone, I think.


And he wasn't signed for huge money, I believe this year is $9 million, and the term of years is not so long -- so his contract is very tradeable.

No it's not.


Arroyo has won 8 games this year. I don't think he has a long term future with the Reds. But let's not criticize the front office for every move they make.

This has turned out to be a horrific move. But yet there are other, more minor ones that get 1000 post threads.

OnBaseMachine
07-05-2009, 03:03 PM
Can we please put Arroyo on the DL and call up Matt Maloney? Arroyo is clearly not healthy. Put him on the DL, let him go ahead and have the surgery and bring up Maloney. At least he pitched well in two of his three starts.

membengal
07-05-2009, 03:04 PM
At the least, Maloney gave the team a chance to win. That would be a step up at this point from what Arroyo is giving them.

Joseph
07-05-2009, 03:33 PM
I'm all for skipping Arroyo in his next start, or DLing him, but for goodness sake please not Maloney again.

kaldaniels
07-05-2009, 03:40 PM
It seems some are forgetting Maloney has a 6.11 ERA in his starts. Arroyo's ERA is 5.85.

No argument that Arroyo has been terrible lately...but let's not act like Maloney is gonna save the day either.

OnBaseMachine
07-05-2009, 03:42 PM
It seems some are forgetting Maloney has a 6.11 ERA in his starts. Arroyo's ERA is 5.85.

No argument that Arroyo has been terrible lately...but let's not act like Maloney is gonna save the day either.

Who said Maloney was going to save the day?

Maloney pitched well in two of his three starts and gave the Reds a chance in those two games. Arroyo hasn't been doing that lately. He's clearly not 100% right now.

kaldaniels
07-05-2009, 03:45 PM
Who said Maloney was going to save the day?

Maloney pitched well in two of his three starts and gave the Reds a chance in those two games. Arroyo hasn't been doing that lately. He's clearly not 100% right now.

Oh I agree something is up with Arroyo. But giving up 4 runs in 6 innings (a start by Maloney that you define as going well) is not a start that goes "well". Yeah its not a blowout, but its not good/well.

In my opinion, Maloney pitched poorly in 2 of 3 starts. 4 runs in 6 innings is not a good thing.

OnBaseMachine
07-05-2009, 03:46 PM
Oh I agree something is up with Arroyo. But giving up 4 runs in 6 innings (a start by Maloney that you define as going well) is not a start that goes "well". Yeah its not a blowout, but its not good/well.

In my opinion, Maloney pitched poorly in 2 of 3 starts. 4 runs in 6 innings is not a good thing.

It should have been 6 IP, 2 R but a Ramon Hernandez blunder extended the inning and led to two additional runs.

kaldaniels
07-05-2009, 03:49 PM
It should have been 6 IP, 2 R but a Ramon Hernandez blunder extended the inning and led to two additional runs.

Yeah I know Maloney had him picked, but when you allow a baserunner, he's now your guy. If the runner had tried to steal and the ball was dropped by the SS applying the tag...its still the pitchers guy out their on 2nd. I know you are trying to look at the bright side of things, but still. 4 ER. 6 IP. Poor start.

kaldaniels
07-05-2009, 03:53 PM
As an aside, Maloney was pulled after 5 IP today. 66 pitches, 1 ER. Hmmm.

SMcGavin
07-05-2009, 03:57 PM
It should have been 6 IP, 2 R but a Ramon Hernandez blunder extended the inning and led to two additional runs.

Yeah, and he left his last start with runners on 1st and 2nd, two out, and both were allowed to score. Not that those runs don't count - they do, it just shows how using ERA to evaluate the quality of three starts is pretty pointless. Had Hernandez not made the mistake and Fisher didn't allow the inherited runs to score Maloney's ERA would have been around 4 - but using that number to say he pitched well would be just as foolish as using his current 6 something ERA to say he pitched badly.

Here are the Reds starters who have made at least three starts this year, ranked by xFIP:

1. Harang 3.96
2. Cueto 4.36
3. Volquez 4.69
4. Maloney 5.04
5. Arroyo 5.14
6. Owings 5.30
7. Bailey 6.75

LoganBuck
07-05-2009, 04:04 PM
I am not a fan of Matt Maloney, never have been, his stuff is AAAA. That being said, Arroyo obviously has something wrong. Put him on the 15 day DL, the all star break will eat up three days of it, if he really has a problem with that idea. If Matt Maloney isn't the answer, and Volquez is still a long way off, go sign a Pedro Martinez or Paul Byrd. Do it now and they will be ready after the break if Bronson needs surgery.

edabbs44
07-05-2009, 04:12 PM
Yeah, and he left his last start with runners on 1st and 2nd, two out, and both were allowed to score. Not that those runs don't count - they do, it just shows how using ERA to evaluate the quality of three starts is pretty pointless. Had Hernandez not made the mistake and Fisher didn't allow the inherited runs to score Maloney's ERA would have been around 4 - but using that number to say he pitched well would be just as foolish as using his current 6 something ERA to say he pitched badly.

Here are the Reds starters who have made at least three starts this year, ranked by xFIP:

1. Harang 3.96
2. Cueto 4.36
3. Volquez 4.69
4. Maloney 5.04
5. Arroyo 5.14
6. Owings 5.30
7. Bailey 6.75

He also averaged more than 1 HR allowed per 3 innings. No one to blame except himself there.

mth123
07-05-2009, 04:13 PM
Last year we were all talking about putting Arroyo on the DL about this time. A little extra rest by pushing him back a couple days and he goes on a three month run of top pitching. I highly doubt history repeats itself, but with the break coming next week, we're just one start away from Arroyo getting a long rest between starts. Nobody is really all that exciting as an alternative. I give him the time, see what happens and hope that maybe Volquez is ready at that point.

He'll start Friday and then get about 8 days. Another 5 until is next turn after that. That is almost three weeks to see if somebody steps up and also gives us more time to evaluate Homer and Volquez as well. I think Arroyo has been awful like everyone else does, but nobody is going to take his deal right now and its just not time to make a change unless he comes forward with a legitimate injury that is affecting him. Last year we all thought he was hurt as well and all it took was a 7 day lay-off between starts.

SMcGavin
07-05-2009, 04:18 PM
He also averaged more than 1 HR allowed per 3 innings. No one to blame except himself there.

For sure. He gave up a crazy amount of fly balls, which is why his xFIP is as high as it is (because his K:BB was very good). Maloney wasn't great in those three starts, but he was decent, especially for a guy making his first three MLB starts. He didn't fight his way into the rotation but he definitely did enough to deserve another shot should Arroyo head to the DL.

LoganBuck
07-05-2009, 04:20 PM
Dusty dodged question in the post game about Arroyo's health. Just on during post game press conference.

LoganBuck
07-05-2009, 04:24 PM
Arroyo just said:

"I have been worse than this before"
"I am having trouble controlling certain pitches."
"I am fine physically"
"I need to get ready to go face Johan Santana"

Big Klu
07-05-2009, 04:59 PM
I have heard a lot of folks say that Micah Owings should go to the pen when Volquez returns (assuming Homer doesn't implode). Why him? Owings has pitched well for a back-of-the-rotation starter. Why not send Arroyo to the pen instead?

kaldaniels
07-05-2009, 05:02 PM
Arroyo just said:

"I have been worse than this before"
"I am having trouble controlling certain pitches."
"I am fine physically"
"I need to get ready to go face Johan Santana"

I think I just threw up in my mouth. :D

TheNext44
07-05-2009, 07:18 PM
Arroyo just said:

"I have been worse than this before"
"I am having trouble controlling certain pitches."
"I am fine physically"
"I need to get ready to go face Johan Santana"

He's telling the truth there. I really don't think he's hurt, he's just doing what he has done every year he has been a starter in the majors, hit a really rough patch.

Here are the rough patches per year:

04: 7 games - 5.26 ERA
05: 6 games - 5.01 ERA
06: 7 games - 5.84 ERA
07: 6 games - 10. 62 ERA
08: 5 games - 10.07 ERA
09: 7 games - 7.71 ERA

He's been worse, and if history repeats, he should get back on track shortly, if not his next start.

Fans need to accept that Arroyo pitches to contact, and relies on his defense and luck to be successful. Most days the batters just miss and hit mostly fly balls. Some days, too many get lucky and hit it squarely for doubles and homers. He has very little control over that.

Falls City Beer
07-05-2009, 07:23 PM
He's telling the truth there. I really don't think he's hurt, he's just doing what he has done every year he has been a starter in the majors, hit a really rough patch.

Here are the rough patches per year:

04: 7 games - 5.26 ERA
05: 6 games - 5.01 ERA
06: 7 games - 5.84 ERA
07: 6 games - 10. 62 ERA
08: 5 games - 10.07 ERA
09: 7 games - 7.71 ERA

He's been worse, and if history repeats, he should get back on track shortly, if not his next start.

Fans need to accept that Arroyo pitches to contact, and relies on his defense and luck to be successful. Most days the batters just miss and hit mostly fly balls. Some days, too many get lucky and hit it squarely for doubles and homers. He has very little control over that.


Two problems: the defense has been much improved this season, so he really can't blame that, and he's not striking anyone out anymore. Yet he continues to put up atrocious numbers, both in terms of ERA and peripherals. It would be a miracle if he could swing the pendulum back much at all this season.

Mario-Rijo
07-05-2009, 07:37 PM
Jin-Az (Which really should be Jin-Pa now ;)) hypothesizes, this prior to this start.

http://www.basement-dwellers.com/


Wednesday, July 01, 2009
What's wrong with Bronson Arroyo?

Arroyo hasn't been good this year. He's 8-7, but has a 5.69 ERA, a 6.03 FIP, a 5.15 xFIP, a 6.79 tRA, and a 5.59 tRA*. None of those is encouraging.

Last night, he said this:

ďThatís the way it goes, man,Ē Arroyo said. ďThereís nothing to say as far as why Iím giving up so many homers. Iíve always given up a decent amount. Physically, I feel good. I feel strong. Iím able to throw 90 if I need it.

ďIím in one of those ruts where I canít get over the hump, get on the plus side, winning 3-0, 4-1. Iíve been chasing it the last couple times. All you can do is take the ball every fifth day and try to dig yourself out of it.Ē

The following all comes from his fangraphs page.

His home run rate is up a fair bit this season:
http://www.fangraphs.com/graphs/978_P_season_full_4_20090630.png

Predictably, his HR/FB rate is as well, and that's usually thought to fluctuate randomly. Even better, his ground ball rate is actually up this year. This is why his xFIP is so much better than his FIP. So that's good news.

What's bothering me about Arroyo is his strikeout rate. In particular, look at this graph:

http://www.fangraphs.com/graphs/978_P_daily_full_1_20090630.png
What I'm seeing here is a steady decline in his k/9 rates from mid-last season until now. His k/9 rate this year is its lowest since 2005 when with the Red Sox, and to me is looking pretty scary. I've long believed that Bronson's bellweather stat is his strikeout rate, so color me concerned.

I'm no scout, so I can't give you a precise cause. But let's play a bit: his fastball run value has taken a huge hit this year, and appears to be where the problem lies among his major pitches from the pitch value data. But his fastball velocity, as he said, is essentially unchanged vs last year. And his fastball pitchf/x movement looks similar (maybe a slight drop in vertical movement, but not as large as 2007 vs 2008). Run values on his curve ball and change are actually improved this year, and are mostly unchanged on his slider, so those pitches look fine.

His walk rate is up this year. So, here's a hypothesis: Arroyo's not spotting his fastball this season, and so he can't use it to properly set up his breaking slop as he usually does. And he's behind in the count more than usual, causing him to give better pitches to hit. I can't do my own pitchf/x at this point, but would someone like to test this who can assess strike zones? Maybe compare balls vs strikes on all 3-1 and 3-2 counts in 2009 vs. 2008 in which he threw a fastball? I've gone as far as I can go.

In a nutshell, it's looking like a command/control issue from that. Could that be an issue brought on by the Carpel Tunnel when it flares up? Although I must add that according to this his K-Rate has went down since about the time he started using that sinker which made him awfully succesful late last season.

traderumor
07-05-2009, 08:27 PM
If Volquez comes back and Bailey maintains, Arroyo has to go to the bullpen for long relief/mopup, right?

Degenerate39
07-05-2009, 08:29 PM
If Volquez comes back and Bailey maintains, Arroyo has to go to the bullpen for long relief/mopup, right?

Why not the DL?

traderumor
07-05-2009, 08:36 PM
Why not the DL?That would be fine as well. He is taking on water fast.

Highlifeman21
07-05-2009, 09:11 PM
If Volquez comes back and Bailey maintains, Arroyo has to go to the bullpen for long relief/mopup, right?

Or we can trade him to (insert band here) to sing backup vocals for the rest of the Summer?

Degenerate39
07-05-2009, 09:35 PM
That would be fine as well. He is taking on water fast.

As long as he gets more guitar he'll be happy

Will M
07-05-2009, 10:02 PM
Why not the DL?

ok with me. DL him with a tired arm. call up Burton. Arroyo would only miss his start ~7/10/09 due to the all star break . a little extra rest helped him in 2008, i am all for trying it again in 2009.