PDA

View Full Version : Different feel



Brutus
06-28-2009, 07:09 PM
As a rule of thumb, I've always tried not to get too high or too low in any stretch in baseball. It's truly a marathon sport, and not a sprint. And as my signature suggests, the best teams lose a third of their games and the worst win a third. It's the in-between that matters.

So I say this, as a preface to my next statement: this offense has a different feel to it this week.

Sure, it's an offense that, at its current personality, might not perform much above an average offensive unit. However, even despite a 3-3 road trip, and a pair of subpar offensive showings, with Joey Votto back, I feel like the bats are about to go on a tear.

Even despite the loss of Adam Dunn, and some noticeable and hotly discussed lethargic production this season, the offense has not really been too much worse than last season.

2008 .247 / .321 / .408 / .729
2009 .245 / .320 / .391 / .711

Consider that the difference in slugging and OPS would actually have been made up with merely a full season of Edwin Encarnacion in the lineup thus far and not having Joey Votto miss even half the number of games he's missed.

The team has picked up the slack of Dunn in a number of ways:

1. Most shocking of all, last season Dunn was worth right around 100 runs created over 600 plate appearances. He actually had roughly 77 in 464 PA's for the Reds. Before Sunday's game, the LF platoon of Nix and Gomes has created 41 in 251 PA's - worth around 97 in 600 total PA's. Factor in the defense, and the Reds have actually upgraded that position thus far for less than a quarter of the price.

2009 LF .287 / .359 / .534 / .893
2008 LF .233 / .377 / .528 / .905

(Note: these numbers reflect only Nix-Gomes and Dunn)

2. Over the course of 600 plate appearances, the tandem of Hernandez and Hanigan have been 11-12 runs better offensively than the 2008 three-headed monster of Ross, Valentin & Bako. Nevermind how much better they've been defensively.

3. Votto, over a full season, would be worth an extra 40 runs more (approximately) than Votto of 2008. Of course, because of the time he's missed, that will not hold steady. Still, the difference has been significant.

4. Brandon Phillips has increased his OBP by more than 40 points from last season and increased his slugging by more than 60 points. That figures to translate to nearly 20 extra runs for the Reds this season if he continues at that pace.

5. I mentioned getting Encarnacion back. Here are the rates of Rosales & Hairston this year thus far versus what Encarnacion did in 2008.

2009 3B .235 / .309 / .368 / .677
2008 3B .251 / .343 / .466 / .810

That, over a full season, takes the Reds' 3B production from being nearly 20 runs below average to almost 10 full runs above average. That's 30 net runs, approximately, which is almost an extra three wins. Though it's not a ton, those three extra wins right now would have the Reds in first place.

It's my opinion that with Votto back, Phillips being much, much improved, Encarnacion coming soon and presumably a bat coming at some point, the Reds offense feels like it can do just enough to keep this team in contention. If Jay Bruce goes on a tear, as it feels like he's on the brink of doing, suddenly the lineup is formidable. On days where Chris Dickerson is in center and Ryan Hanigan is behind the plate, you have a team with a slightly above-average on-base percentage.

Get either an offensive/defensive upgrade for Encarnacion at third or a legit shortstop, and I think the Reds are right where they'd need to be about the halfway mark of the season.

For now though, it seems like the offense is about to turn the corner. It might not happen. But it does feel like it.

EDIT: (I should add that some of these lines are almost a week old for a few of the positions in 2009. I had saved some of the stats this past week and had not updated them before making this post. So if a few of the rates seem off a tad, that's the reason)

SMcGavin
06-28-2009, 07:51 PM
Interesting post, but the Reds have gotten .247/.317/.418 from LF this year. You can't only consider the stats of the guys who have done well there, it misses the point - part of the risk in replacing a known commodity is that you often have to sift through some junk before finding a capable replacement.

Will M
06-28-2009, 07:52 PM
there was a stretch of 7-10 games when Votto was out that i simply quit watching the games. the offense was so abyssmal that once we were down 2-0 the game was over.

Now...
1. Votto is back
2. Dickerson is getting playing time over Taveras in CF (at least vs RHP)
3. EE will return soon

Lets look at what we could have...
C Hanigan & Hernandez
1B Votto
2B Phillips
SS ***desperately needed acquisition***
3B EE
LF Nix/Gomes
CF Dickerson/Hairston
RF Bruce

IF (BIG IF) the Reds go out and get a shortstop and either Volquez comes back or Bailey steps it up big time the 2009 team could make some noise.
we very very much need a shortstop.

Brutus
06-28-2009, 07:57 PM
Interesting post, but the Reds have gotten .247/.317/.418 from LF this year. You can't only consider the stats of the guys who have done well there, it misses the point - part of the risk in replacing a known commodity is that you often have to sift through some junk before finding a capable replacement.

I realize that. However, Nix emerged pretty early in the season. And when it's all said and done, the Nix-Gomes platoon will probably wind up with the 460-some plate appearances that Dunn accrued as a Reds last year. The point is, it will wind up being a large enough sample to compare the positions. I'm speaking about going forward anyhow, not backward thinking. The bottom line is that the Reds, right now, today (and going forward) have a platoon that is producing at or around the level that Dunn gave them. How they had to derive at that situation is irrelevant.

Falls City Beer
06-28-2009, 07:58 PM
Interesting post, but the Reds have gotten .247/.317/.418 from LF this year. You can't only consider the stats of the guys who have done well there, it misses the point - part of the risk in replacing a known commodity is that you often have to sift through some junk before finding a capable replacement.

Not sure where you're getting that figure for LF.

Falls City Beer
06-28-2009, 08:01 PM
I realize that. However, Nix emerged pretty early in the season. And when it's all said and done, the Nix-Gomes platoon will probably wind up with the 460-some plate appearances that Dunn accrued as a Reds last year. The point is, it will wind up being a large enough sample to compare the positions. I'm speaking about going forward anyhow, not backward thinking. The bottom line is that the Reds, right now, today (and going forward) have a platoon that is producing at or around the level that Dunn gave them. How they had to derive at that situation is irrelevant.

Right, and consider the only "thrown-away" ABs have been McDonald's 40. The 250-ish other ABs have come from some combo of Gomes, Nix, and Dickerson.

Falls City Beer
06-28-2009, 08:05 PM
I agree with your OP, Brutus. Now let's get this rotation off the schneid.

nate
06-28-2009, 08:16 PM
Not sure where you're getting that figure for LF.


Split G GS PA AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI SB CS BB SO BA OBP SLG OPS TB GDP HBP SH SF IBB ROE BAbip tOPS+ sOPS+
as C 73 300 257 27 75 12 1 3 22 3 4 36 25 .292 .375 .381 .756 98 4 0 4 3 4 2 .310 115 110
as 1B 73 318 272 39 79 14 0 12 53 3 1 39 50 .290 .389 .474 .864 129 8 5 2 0 5 3 .319 143 103
as 2B 73 319 279 41 76 14 3 13 54 10 6 29 30 .272 .338 .484 .821 135 11 2 2 7 3 3 .259 129 118
as 3B 73 315 273 23 52 8 0 5 24 1 3 28 56 .190 .279 .275 .554 75 4 7 3 4 1 7 .218 57 50
as SS 73 309 279 33 69 18 1 4 29 7 2 16 44 .247 .297 .362 .659 101 5 5 6 3 4 4 .278 85 86
as LF 73 311 275 35 68 16 2 9 30 1 2 25 74 .247 .317 .418 .735 115 3 5 2 4 1 2 .301 106 89
as CF 73 336 303 47 72 14 1 2 16 16 3 19 55 .238 .284 .310 .595 94 4 2 9 3 0 5 .281 68 59
as RF 73 316 278 38 62 11 1 18 43 3 2 35 61 .223 .313 .464 .777 129 3 2 0 1 2 2 .220 116 95
as DH 8 33 27 4 10 3 0 2 5 0 0 5 6 .370 .485 .704 1.189 19 1 1 0 0 0 0 .421 232 203
as P 65 157 133 9 21 4 1 1 8 0 0 5 49 .158 .188 .226 .414 30 4 0 19 0 0 1 .241 17 144
as PH 60 111 94 13 22 8 2 2 10 1 0 17 31 .234 .351 .426 .777 40 3 0 0 0 2 0 .328 119 138
as Infield 73 1561 1360 163 351 66 5 37 182 21 12 148 205 .258 .335 .396 .731 538 32 19 17 17 17 19 .277 106 94
as Outfield 73 963 856 120 202 41 4 29 89 20 7 79 190 .236 .305 .395 .699 338 10 9 11 8 3 9 .268 96 81
at Def. Pos. 73 1264 1118 148 292 58 6 22 121 33 11 100 154 .261 .323 .383 .705 428 24 9 21 16 11 14 .282 99 93
at Off. Pos. 73 1260 1098 135 261 49 3 44 150 8 8 127 241 .238 .325 .408 .733 448 18 19 7 9 9 14 .264 106 85

Falls City Beer
06-28-2009, 08:22 PM
Split G GS PA AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI SB CS BB SO BA OBP SLG OPS TB GDP HBP SH SF IBB ROE BAbip tOPS+ sOPS+
as C 73 300 257 27 75 12 1 3 22 3 4 36 25 .292 .375 .381 .756 98 4 0 4 3 4 2 .310 115 110
as 1B 73 318 272 39 79 14 0 12 53 3 1 39 50 .290 .389 .474 .864 129 8 5 2 0 5 3 .319 143 103
as 2B 73 319 279 41 76 14 3 13 54 10 6 29 30 .272 .338 .484 .821 135 11 2 2 7 3 3 .259 129 118
as 3B 73 315 273 23 52 8 0 5 24 1 3 28 56 .190 .279 .275 .554 75 4 7 3 4 1 7 .218 57 50
as SS 73 309 279 33 69 18 1 4 29 7 2 16 44 .247 .297 .362 .659 101 5 5 6 3 4 4 .278 85 86
as LF 73 311 275 35 68 16 2 9 30 1 2 25 74 .247 .317 .418 .735 115 3 5 2 4 1 2 .301 106 89
as CF 73 336 303 47 72 14 1 2 16 16 3 19 55 .238 .284 .310 .595 94 4 2 9 3 0 5 .281 68 59
as RF 73 316 278 38 62 11 1 18 43 3 2 35 61 .223 .313 .464 .777 129 3 2 0 1 2 2 .220 116 95
as DH 8 33 27 4 10 3 0 2 5 0 0 5 6 .370 .485 .704 1.189 19 1 1 0 0 0 0 .421 232 203
as P 65 157 133 9 21 4 1 1 8 0 0 5 49 .158 .188 .226 .414 30 4 0 19 0 0 1 .241 17 144
as PH 60 111 94 13 22 8 2 2 10 1 0 17 31 .234 .351 .426 .777 40 3 0 0 0 2 0 .328 119 138
as Infield 73 1561 1360 163 351 66 5 37 182 21 12 148 205 .258 .335 .396 .731 538 32 19 17 17 17 19 .277 106 94
as Outfield 73 963 856 120 202 41 4 29 89 20 7 79 190 .236 .305 .395 .699 338 10 9 11 8 3 9 .268 96 81
at Def. Pos. 73 1264 1118 148 292 58 6 22 121 33 11 100 154 .261 .323 .383 .705 428 24 9 21 16 11 14 .282 99 93
at Off. Pos. 73 1260 1098 135 261 49 3 44 150 8 8 127 241 .238 .325 .408 .733 448 18 19 7 9 9 14 .264 106 85


That says 9 HR from the LF spot--Gomes and Nix have 11 between them, no? And I'm pretty certain that Dickerson hit one of his two homers as a LF.

Tornon
06-28-2009, 08:28 PM
That says 9 HR from the LF spot--Gomes and Nix have 11 between them, no? And I'm pretty certain that Dickerson hit one of his two homers as a LF.

Most of Gomes' HR have come from the DH spot, right?

kpresidente
06-28-2009, 08:28 PM
1. Most shocking of all, last season Dunn was worth right around 100 runs created over 600 plate appearances. He actually had roughly 77 in 464 PA's for the Reds. Before Sunday's game, the LF platoon of Nix and Gomes has created 41 in 251 PA's - worth around 97 in 600 total PA's. Factor in the defense, and the Reds have actually upgraded that position thus far for less than a quarter of the price.

2009 LF .287 / .359 / .534 / .893
2008 LF .233 / .377 / .528 / .905

(Note: these numbers reflect only Nix-Gomes and Dunn)


No shock to me. I've been trumpeting platoons for as long as I can remember. It drives my philosophy that the way to build a baseball team is to pump all your money/draft picks into starting pitching, and fill in the rest using low-cost specialists. Splits are the most underappreciated analytical tool in the ML GMs toolbox, IMO.

Take, for instance, one of the biggest misconceptions about the Reds is that we need a RH bat to offset the lefties (Votto/Bruce) in the middle of the order. That's totally misguided, IMO, because Votto has no discernible split, while both Phillips and Encarnacion kill LHP. What we need is another LH to offset those two.

Falls City Beer
06-28-2009, 08:28 PM
Most of Gomes' HR have come from the DH spot, right?

That explains it. Thanks.

Brutus
06-28-2009, 08:35 PM
No shock to me. I've been trumpeting platoons for as long as I can remember. It drives my philosophy that the way to build a baseball team is to pump all your money/draft picks into starting pitching, and fill in the rest using low-cost specialists. Splits are the most underappreciated analytical tool in the ML GMs toolbox, IMO.

Take, for instance, one of the biggest misconceptions about the Reds is that we need a RH bat to offset the lefties (Votto/Bruce) in the middle of the order. That's totally misguided, IMO, because Votto has no discernible split, while both Phillips and Encarnacion kill LHP. What we need is another LH to offset those two.

Oh I agree completely with your take on platoons. I was actively campaigning on the Sun Deck in late April for a Nix-Gomes platoon. I guess the surprising part, for me, is to see that so far their aggregate production has met (or exceeded if you consider defensive contributions) that of Adam Dunn.

It's amazing when you ponder that the Reds fans were beside themselves when the Reds did nothing to upgrade the position in the offseason (at least from a 'name' recognition & free agent market standpoint), yet here we are and they (to this point) have a pair that can nearly equal the run production of Dunn if they are able to continue at this pace. Of course, that's not to say they will, by any means. But even if they don't, it seems they will do enough to keep the position being productive. I have been a big proponent of getting Matt Holliday. But right now, there's just no reason to do so as they have other positions they could benefit much more greatly from another bat.

kpresidente
06-28-2009, 08:41 PM
Interesting post, but the Reds have gotten .247/.317/.418 from LF this year. You can't only consider the stats of the guys who have done well there, it misses the point - part of the risk in replacing a known commodity is that you often have to sift through some junk before finding a capable replacement.

Fair enough, but playing McDonald over the Nix/Gomes platoon can't just be chalked up as "sifting through the junk," either. It was a poor decision based on known variables.

nate
06-28-2009, 08:45 PM
That says 9 HR from the LF spot--Gomes and Nix have 11 between them, no? And I'm pretty certain that Dickerson hit one of his two homers as a LF.

This is just by position.

err...nm.

nate
06-28-2009, 08:46 PM
No shock to me. I've been trumpeting platoons for as long as I can remember. It drives my philosophy that the way to build a baseball team is to pump all your money/draft picks into starting pitching, and fill in the rest using low-cost specialists. Splits are the most underappreciated analytical tool in the ML GMs toolbox, IMO.

Take, for instance, one of the biggest misconceptions about the Reds is that we need a RH bat to offset the lefties (Votto/Bruce) in the middle of the order. That's totally misguided, IMO, because Votto has no discernible split, while both Phillips and Encarnacion kill LHP. What we need is another LH to offset those two.

Or just a good hitter, regardless of handedness.

reds44
06-28-2009, 08:58 PM
I was going to make a similar thread to this, but I guess I'll just add my thoughts in here. Maybe it's getting back to .500 or maybe I just have gas, but I feel really good about where the Reds sit right now.

Johnny Gomes can flat out hit. Sure, he'll probably be pretty brutal when he has to play LF, but he is a much needed spark for the Reds offense.

Chris Dickerson is a legit leadoff hitter and CFer. Batting .280 with a .380 OBP, I think he is proving that he can get the job down.

Hernandez and Hanigan give the Reds two competent catchers both with the glove and the bat. They should keep each others workload down over the course of the 2nd half and allow each other to stay fresh.

Joey Votto is back, enough said.

EE had 2 more hits in AAA today and is batting .286/.412/.536 down there. He should be back for Tuesday's game, which will give the Reds another offensive boost.

We will get another boost sometime after the ASG when Volquez comes back.

You can not give the pitching staff enough credit for keeping this team around .500 while the offense was awful without Votto and Edwin. I think this team has the staying power in the NL Central, and is probably 1 player away (SS or LF, but more so SS) from being the favorites in the divison.

If the Reds can find a SS who can hit and be average in the field, they will be a damn good ballclub.

*BaseClogger*
06-28-2009, 09:10 PM
If the Reds can find a SS who can hit and be average in the field, they will be a damn good ballclub.

This should be the Reds' main concern... :thumbup:

OnBaseMachine
06-28-2009, 09:13 PM
If the Reds can find a SS who can hit and be average in the field, they will be a damn good ballclub.

I agree. Shortstop is our biggest need. I made this post in another thread:

I'm trying to think of a solid shortstop who may be available. Two names popped into my mind - Yunel Escobar and Clint Barmes. Unfortunately, it looks like Barmes has taken over at second base in Colorado so he may no longer be available. Escobar is a solid hitter but his defense at SS has taken a step back this year. I'd still take a chance on him though.

Brutus
06-28-2009, 09:17 PM
I agree. Shortstop is our biggest need. I made this post in another thread:

I'm trying to think of a solid shortstop who may be available. Two names popped into my mind - Yunel Escobar and Clint Barmes. Unfortunately, it looks like Barmes has taken over at second base in Colorado so he may no longer be available. Escobar is a solid hitter but his defense at SS has taken a step back this year. I'd still take a chance on him though.

You have hit on something I've been thinking about for a while.

I remember a year or two ago, the Braves were shopping Yunel around quite a bit. They weren't going to give him away, but they were perfectly willing to trade him in the right deal. I've heard the rumors lately that he's in Cox's doghouse. I still feel like he's a guy the Braves would move if the right deal come along. I think Escobar, short of maybe getting the Astros to trade Tejada, is the best-case scenario for the Reds right now.

I really think Escobar could be had. The Braves certainly like him, but it seems they've never considered him to be untouchable.

reds44
06-28-2009, 09:19 PM
Escobar would make the Reds better, no doubt and I would like to see the Reds acquire him. However, I don't think he is the going to put the Reds over the top. They'll still be a piece away with Escobar.

Caveat Emperor
06-28-2009, 09:31 PM
I agree. Shortstop is our biggest need.

If the Reds could find a above-average hitter/defender for 3rd base (which I don't believe Encarnacion is, but that's a debate for another thread), and would continue to play Dickerson in CF and a Nix/Gomes platoon in LF, the lineup should be productive enough to place a defensive-specialist such as Janish at SS (batting 8th).

Concentrate the resources on finding a 3rd baseman, a much easier task than paying a kings ransom for a hitting SS, and improving the pitching staff.

cincrazy
06-28-2009, 09:52 PM
I've always been an optimist on this board, since the moment I signed up. But I can't say that this year.

The Cards added DeRosa, and probably aren't done yet. I hardly think the Cubs are going to sit tight, nor do I think they'll keep playing this poorly. Ramirez comes back at some point, remember. And the Brewers are also much more likely to make a deal than us. This time, somehow, someway, has figured out a way to stay in it. And for all of the hell Dusty catches around here (some of it much deserved) he deserves a tip of the cap for keeping this team close.

But I think it will be like 2006. Hang around because of a horrible division, but fade by the end of the year.

SMcGavin
06-28-2009, 10:19 PM
I realize that. However, Nix emerged pretty early in the season. And when it's all said and done, the Nix-Gomes platoon will probably wind up with the 460-some plate appearances that Dunn accrued as a Reds last year. The point is, it will wind up being a large enough sample to compare the positions. I'm speaking about going forward anyhow, not backward thinking. The bottom line is that the Reds, right now, today (and going forward) have a platoon that is producing at or around the level that Dunn gave them. How they had to derive at that situation is irrelevant.

It's far from irrelevant, those games happened, those players got at-bats. The games at the beginning of the year mean just as much as the games now. In total the Reds have gotten over 100 points less OPS from LF in 09 than they got in 08, that's a big deal.

Going forward, I would be extremely surprised if Nix/Gomes continue to produce at a .900ish OPS level.

OnBaseMachine
06-28-2009, 10:22 PM
Along with acquiring a SS like Escobar, I'd like to see the Reds acquire another starter while Volquez is out. FCB mentioned Doug Davis before. I like that idea. Davis currently has a 3.28 ERA and 45 BB/73 K in 98.2 innings with the Diamondbacks. If he could be had for a reasonable price, I'd go hard after him. Then when Volquez returns, you have a rotation of Cueto/Harang/Volquez/Davis and one of Arroyo/Bailey/Owings. Maybe they can shop Arroyo for a bat.

Kc61
06-28-2009, 10:29 PM
You guys can debate shortstops or center field, or whatever. IMO the Reds offense will only succeed if one of two things happened.

A trade for a serious hitter, or

Good offensive performances by Votto, Phillips, Bruce and EE. These are the four main hitters on the team. I don't think anyone else is near them, except perhaps Gomes who won't get regular time because of defense.

Once EE is back and all four "big guns" are in the lineup, we'll see whether the offense can be any good.

bucksfan2
06-28-2009, 10:40 PM
I've always been an optimist on this board, since the moment I signed up. But I can't say that this year.

The Cards added DeRosa, and probably aren't done yet. I hardly think the Cubs are going to sit tight, nor do I think they'll keep playing this poorly. Ramirez comes back at some point, remember. And the Brewers are also much more likely to make a deal than us. This time, somehow, someway, has figured out a way to stay in it. And for all of the hell Dusty catches around here (some of it much deserved) he deserves a tip of the cap for keeping this team close.

But I think it will be like 2006. Hang around because of a horrible division, but fade by the end of the year.

The Reds are in much better shape organizationally right now than there were in 2006. I think the issue that you are ignoring is the ability to make a trade. The Cubs have the ability to add payroll but they have nothing to trade. The Cards may be better off than the Cubs but I don't think they have much room to make a big time move. IMO the Reds and the Brewers are the two NL Central clubs that have the ability to make a big move because of their farm system.

Unfortunatly I think the Reds and even the fans are placing too much faith in Edwin returning and providing a big impact. Many fans who were clammoring for him to be benched or sent down to the minors are expecting him to come back and provide a big bat for the Reds lineup. I hope Edwin is able to come back and produce at a high level, but its more of a hope than anything else.

cincrazy
06-28-2009, 10:45 PM
The Reds are in much better shape organizationally right now than there were in 2006. I think the issue that you are ignoring is the ability to make a trade. The Cubs have the ability to add payroll but they have nothing to trade. The Cards may be better off than the Cubs but I don't think they have much room to make a big time move. IMO the Reds and the Brewers are the two NL Central clubs that have the ability to make a big move because of their farm system.

Unfortunatly I think the Reds and even the fans are placing too much faith in Edwin returning and providing a big impact. Many fans who were clammoring for him to be benched or sent down to the minors are expecting him to come back and provide a big bat for the Reds lineup. I hope Edwin is able to come back and produce at a high level, but its more of a hope than anything else.

I definitely think we're in better shape as an organization, but I think the result will be the same. We have the prospects to make a trade, but we absolutely, positively will not take on any cash in a deal. Mark my words on that one. The Cards will. And I have a feeling that even with the ownership change, the Cubs will. And we know the Brewers will. But the Reds, I promise you, will not. And that's the difference.

Brutus
06-28-2009, 11:11 PM
It's far from irrelevant, those games happened, those players got at-bats. The games at the beginning of the year mean just as much as the games now. In total the Reds have gotten over 100 points less OPS from LF in 09 than they got in 08, that's a big deal.

Going forward, I would be extremely surprised if Nix/Gomes continue to produce at a .900ish OPS level.

It's irrelevant to the point I was trying to make - that I feel good about the offense here forward, considering the level of production that Nix & Gomes have provided at LF since taking over. Considering my point was showing what Nix & Gomes are on pace to do for a whole season, as part of my point to illustrate what the Reds' offense has to look at going forward, I would say those at-bats given in April by Darnell McDonald and Chris Dickerson while in left become quite meaningless looking at July, August & September.

flyer85
06-28-2009, 11:13 PM
which the numbers by position point out that there are some spots other than LF that are doing substantial damage to the Reds offensive effort(like 3b and cf)

In a nutshell, the Reds offense sucks and is being pulled down by a bunch of players who have no business getting ABs at the major league level

11larkin11
06-29-2009, 04:01 AM
If things go like they trend to, and Bruce's "luck" starts to go forward, that is just like adding a good hitter. I think Janish should be at short until the offense cools down, but everyone here knows Hairston is going straight to SS when EE comes back.

Ron Madden
06-30-2009, 06:32 AM
If things go like they trend to, and Bruce's "luck" starts to go forward, that is just like adding a good hitter. I think Janish should be at short until the offense cools down, but everyone here knows Hairston is going straight to SS when EE comes back.

It's a wonder that JHJ hasn't been on the DL yet this far into the season.

I wish him no harm and hope he can stay healthy but he has a history of missing a bunch of games due to injury.

Highlifeman21
06-30-2009, 08:32 AM
You guys can debate shortstops or center field, or whatever. IMO the Reds offense will only succeed if one of two things happened.

A trade for a serious hitter, or

Good offensive performances by Votto, Phillips, Bruce and EE. These are the four main hitters on the team. I don't think anyone else is near them, except perhaps Gomes who won't get regular time because of defense.

Once EE is back and all four "big guns" are in the lineup, we'll see whether the offense can be any good.

I admittedly don't expect much from EE if and when he returns, Bruce has been inconsistent this year, I expect Phillips and Votto both to come back to Earth, so unfortunately I think we've seen what this offense can do.

Sure, if all 4 of those guys get hot for a small window, we might see something that remotely resembles offense, but will it be sustainable? My guess is no.

redsmetz
06-30-2009, 09:35 AM
I admittedly don't expect much from EE if and when he returns, Bruce has been inconsistent this year, I expect Phillips and Votto both to come back to Earth, so unfortunately I think we've seen what this offense can do.

Sure, if all 4 of those guys get hot for a small window, we might see something that remotely resembles offense, but will it be sustainable? My guess is no.

Can I ask, why do you expect these results? I'm not sure what to expect from Encarnacion; his early walk rates were very good, showing patience that many had suggested he needed, but his dreadful BA may well have been a result of the injury, so I'm anxious to see if his usual hitting can be matched with this newfound patience. I can't say for sure that it will occur, but it could.

No question about Bruce and neither of us is saying that he won't continue to be inconsistant or that he isn't beginning to put it together. I never fully understand the whole luck thing with BABIP - I'm not knocking it, I just don't get how it explains anything (that's just me, I'm sure).

But why is it a given that Votto and Phillips will come back to earth? We bandy this around here on RZ all the time, as if the weight of statistical data acts like gravity dragging the player back down to earth. I understand that happens, and happens quite often. But at times, players do rise up, particularly with younger players (Votto clearly in that category, Phillips scratching at the top end of that spectrum). I just don't buy that it's a fait accompli - the whole human aspect and all that.

Screwball
06-30-2009, 09:47 AM
Can I ask, why do you expect these results? I'm not sure what to expect from Encarnacion; his early walk rates were very good, showing patience that many had suggested he needed, but his dreadful BA may well have been a result of the injury, so I'm anxious to see if his usual hitting can be matched with this newfound patience. I can't say for sure that it will occur, but it could.

No question about Bruce and neither of us is saying that he won't continue to be inconsistant or that he isn't beginning to put it together. I never fully understand the whole luck thing with BABIP - I'm not knocking it, I just don't get how it explains anything (that's just me, I'm sure).

But why is it a given that Votto and Phillips will come back to earth? We bandy this around here on RZ all the time, as if the weight of statistical data acts like gravity dragging the player back down to earth. I understand that happens, and happens quite often. But at times, players do rise up, particularly with younger players (Votto clearly in that category, Phillips scratching at the top end of that spectrum). I just don't buy that it's a fait accompli - the whole human aspect and all that.

Don't you get it? Anybody that's doing well will do worse, and anybody that's doing poorly will continue to suck. Oh, and anybody coming back from injury will do nothing, much like any sort of call up would do.

You see, if I'm wrong then I get to say, "Well sure glad I was wrong about that one" or maybe even spin it off as dumb luck or something like that. But if I'm right, I can let you guys know how smart and prophetic I am. Hell, it's so foolproof I'm going to make sure I repeat this sentiment every time I post.

Hoosier Red
06-30-2009, 10:22 AM
It's far from irrelevant, those games happened, those players got at-bats. The games at the beginning of the year mean just as much as the games now. In total the Reds have gotten over 100 points less OPS from LF in 09 than they got in 08, that's a big deal.

Going forward, I would be extremely surprised if Nix/Gomes continue to produce at a .900ish OPS level.


I think the point brutus was making is that its irrelevant when considering what happens going forward. If McDonald gets another at bat this season, it's probably lost anyway so he doesn't factor into the discussion. Yes his at bats happened, and yes they were stupid to be given to him, but there's nothing that can be done about it now.

For the forseeable future we're looking at Nix/Gomes in LF and Taveras/Dickerson in RF.

As for the 2nd part, following their career splits, a .900 OPS from the platoon isn't too out of line.

Sea Ray
06-30-2009, 10:25 AM
We have the prospects to make a trade, but we absolutely, positively will not take on any cash in a deal. Mark my words on that one. The Cards will. And I have a feeling that even with the ownership change, the Cubs will. And we know the Brewers will. But the Reds, I promise you, will not. And that's the difference.


Same old, same old. It all comes down to money and the Reds are always on the short end of the stick, as are the Pirates, A's etc. It's not an even playing field in baseball. If the Reds are going to win anything it'll have to happen with less money than their rivals. For that reason it's not easy being a Reds fan.

RedlegJake
06-30-2009, 11:33 AM
Castellini wants to win and I do think he'll take on salary if Walt says "this is the deal right here". I don't think Walt feels he's found a deal that upgrades the Reds, doesn't mortgage too much of the farm and would put them over the hump. Any poster on here can "guarantee" the Reds won't take on salary but that's conjecture and one man's opinion and relatively worthless. Of course, my belief that they would for the right player holds the same weight.

A trade should upgrade, though. Now that the Reds have pretty much settled on Nix/Gomes in LF how the heck do you upgrade an OPS in high 800s? Gomes has always been a good hitter and Nix has always had good upside that seemed to elude him. Why is it hard to believe that as a platoon those two can't maintain their pace? To upgrade means a truly elite hitter being acquired for LF and I'm in the camp who believe Holliday would be a move that treads water. To really upgrade LF going forward Walt would need a player who is even better than Holliday, especially when you consider that signing Matt long term is extremely unlikely.

EE is also hard to replace. His offensive numbers overall career-wise suggest he is an average ML third sacker and that isn't a bad thing. That's actually hard to replace. I'd have loved DeRosa but the Reds got outbid. Walt may have felt he wasn't a significant upgrade over a healthy EE and again, not worth too high a price going forward. Remember its not the season that is already past that counts in a trade - its what you have going forward and EE is very close to returning. You could argue the Reds should have grabbed a DeRosa or some such when EE first went down rather than suffering abysmal 3B production for nearly 2 full months (I'd agree) but as of this moment I can't fault not jumping on a 3B trade. That boat has sailed.

Either find a SS like Escobar, or Drew, or upgrade the rotation. Yeah, I'm worried about a drop-off from the starting pitching. Harang and Arroyo have been uneven - and more toward the bad end than the good nights. I think the rotation is going to be the bigger problem going forward than the offense. Personally, I hope the bullie stays strong and strangles opponents in 6th through 9th because unless Owings/Bailey pitch better than expected and Volquie gets back healthy and effective sooner than expected the rotation is going the wrong direction imo. I feel strongly about that and I'd be dangling Arroyo and Harang in a weak pitching market hoping to get a high value return. Before anyone jumps all over that - I would not give thewm away but I'd sure take a "sell high" offer if I got one because the market is unique this summer in that available pitching is almost non-existent and if someone wants to pay a big ransom for either guy I'd grab it.