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Tom Servo
06-29-2009, 02:40 AM
First credit goes to the Sun Deck where I saw this posted:

http://msn.foxsports.com/mlb/story/9743144/Losing-out-on-DeRosa-has-Reds-looking-elsewhere

Cubs fans aren't done lamenting the fact that onetime North Side favorite Mark DeRosa was traded from Cleveland to rival St. Louis on Saturday night.

Here's my advice to them: Drop it. Another team in the National League Central had an even greater need for DeRosa — and I'm not talking about the Cardinals.

The most disappointed team after the deal was probably in the visiting clubhouse during this weekend's Buckeye Series at Progressive Field.

Yes, the Cincinnati Reds wanted Mark DeRosa in the worst way. And on Sunday, two industry sources said the Reds are still very much engaged in their search for right-handed hitting.

The Reds have left-handed power, with young sluggers Joey Votto and Jay Bruce. DeRosa, a right-handed run producer, would have been an ideal compliment.

DeRosa plays two positions, left field and third base, where Cincinnati has had below-major-league-average production, as judged by OPS.

Laynce Nix has done an admirable job in left, but the Reds would like to add a right-handed compliment. Team officials have already considered Washington's Josh Willingham. Baltimore's Ty Wigginton is another option as a right-handed hitter, but he's more of a 2B/3B than an outfielder.

Oakland's Matt Holliday would be the biggest prize, of course, but it remains to be seen if Cincinnati will put together an offer that Billy Beane deems sufficiently impressive.

One name that can't be dismissed: switch hitter Gary Matthews Jr. of the Los Angeles Angels, who has been a trade candidate for some time. He's struggled to produce consistently since signing a five-year, $50 million contract prior to the 2007 season, and the Angels would almost certainly need to include a large amount of cash in the deal.


The Reds' pitching depth could make them a natural trading partner for the Angels, whose bullpen has struggled for much of the year. And Cincinnati manager Dusty Baker knows Matthews well, since the outfielder's father, Gary Matthews Sr., served on Baker's coaching staff with the Chicago Cubs.

Cincinnati's production at third base — the worst in the majors (.554 OPS) entering Sunday — could improve soon if regular starter Edwin Encarnacion makes a successful return from his broken left wrist. He's currently hitting .286 for Class AAA Louisville on a rehabilitation assignment.

So, the bigger infield need may be at shortstop, where Alex Gonzalez could be out until the end of July after having surgery to remove four loose bodies from his throwing elbow.

An interesting possibility could emerge at that position: Julio Lugo.

Yes, Lugo has been maligned in Boston, more for his defense than his offense. He's batting .292, with a .361 on-base percentage. That's better than Gonzalez's performance at shortstop and Willy Taveras' dismal showing as the leadoff man.

Even though he's rarely done it this year, Lugo has experience in the leadoff spot: a lifetime .272 batting average in 393 career games, according to Retrosheet.org.

Lugo is earning $9 million this year. He's set to earn $9 million next year, too. But the Boston Globe reported Sunday that he could be released once Jed Lowrie returns from the disabled list.

If the Red Sox release him, they will responsible for all the money left on his deal, less the major-league minimum. So, Boston officials have some incentive to explore trades now — with the understanding that they'd need to include a large amount of cash, anyway.

The Reds could also decide to stay with in-house solutions at shortstop until Gonzalez returns: Paul Janish, a good defender, and Jerry Hairston Jr., who is a second baseman and outfielder by trade.

mth123
06-29-2009, 04:18 AM
I'm not sure about these guys at this point. I think they'd improve the team's depth but with EdE back and Gomes/Nix platooning in LF, I don't see where Wigginton, Matthews or Willingham help too much at this point. I could see getting Willingham or Wigginton and platooning one of them with Nix while moving Gomes over to platoon with Bruce in RF. It would also allow for a more natural back-up for Votto. Willingham for example could spell Votto occassionally and allow Hernandez and Hanigan to stay fresher switching off behind the plate.

They needed to get some one while EdE was out, but now that he's back, the urgency is gone, but depth would help and a platoon partner for Bruce wouldn't hurt in the short run. A SS acquisition would still help, but I'm not sure Lugo is the answer.

Just say no to Matthews. I fear an OF with Hairston, Taveras and Matthews one day in Cincy. That may be the thing that ultimately makes me give up on this team after nearly 50 years.

reds44
06-29-2009, 04:54 AM
I'm not sure about these guys at this point. I think they'd improve the team's depth but with EdE back and Gomes/Nix platooning in LF, I don't see where Wigginton, Matthews or Willingham help too much at this point. I could see getting Willingham or Wigginton and platooning one of them with Nix while moving Gomes over to platoon with Bruce in RF. It would also allow for a more natural back-up for Votto. Willingham for example could spell Votto occassionally and allow Hernandez and Hanigan to stay fresher switching off behind the plate.

They needed to get some one while EdE was out, but now that he's back, the urgency is gone, but depth would help and a platoon partner for Bruce wouldn't hurt in the short run. A SS acquisition would still help, but I'm not sure Lugo is the answer.

Just say no to Matthews. I fear an OF with Hairston, Taveras and Matthews one day in Cincy. That may be the thing that ultimately makes me give up on this team after nearly 50 years.
I agree with you on most everything you said in here. I really don't want any part of seeing Wigginton and Gomes in LF/RF because then your COF defense is just as bad as it was last year. DeRosa would have been nice to get, but not somebody I'm going to lose sleep over.

Definatley nice to hear we are trying.

mth123
06-29-2009, 05:43 AM
I agree with you on most everything you said in here. I really don't want any part of seeing Wigginton and Gomes in LF/RF because then your COF defense is just as bad as it was last year. DeRosa would have been nice to get, but not somebody I'm going to lose sleep over.

Definatley nice to hear we are trying.

Agree that Gomes in RF and Willingham or Wigginton in LF would be more of the 2008 style defense, but none of those guys is as bad as Griffey was in 2008. I can't really see any combination making the OF defense as bad as 2008 unless the team would bring Griffey back.

They really need to target SS or a RH half to team with Bruce. Those are the only spots where a role player type would be a real improvement. As long as Taveras stays on the bench, they can really only upgrade the other spots by bringing in a real star caliber player. The role player types mentioned in this article don't seem to be much of an upgrade over the guys already here. They do add depth though and it would have been nice to have while EdE and Votto were out. Getting depth for the second half is a decent thing to do as long as it only costs expendable non-core talent.

lollipopcurve
06-29-2009, 08:36 AM
Getting depth for the second half is a decent thing to do as long as it only costs expendable non-core talent.

Agreed -- not a bad approach. I think taking a flier on Lugo is a worthwhile gamble if he costs next to nothing. Good player at times, and getting out of Boston may be the key for him. Hard to know how much Gonzo will be able to contribute when he comes back.

schroomytunes
06-29-2009, 09:03 AM
If I'm Walt I'm calling Cleveland ASAP, and inquiring about Jhonny Peralta, he would fill our biggest position of need at SS, and he is a RH bat. He would probably cost some good prospects, but he is still young 27-28 and would solidify the spot for some time.

mth123
06-29-2009, 09:07 AM
Agreed -- not a bad approach. I think taking a flier on Lugo is a worthwhile gamble if he costs next to nothing. Good player at times, and getting out of Boston may be the key for him. Hard to know how much Gonzo will be able to contribute when he comes back.

A couple years ago I wanted the Reds to make a run at Lowrie but thought it would be OK to settle for Lugo. He does get on base more than Hairston and it would free Hairston to platoon with Dickerson in CF, but I fear Keppingeresque defense and that is not acceptable IMO. Can you or M2 or the other New Englanders on here who have seen him play give us the scoop on Lugo's defense?

mth123
06-29-2009, 09:13 AM
If I'm Walt I'm calling Cleveland ASAP, and inquiring about Jhonny Peralta, he would fill our biggest position of need at SS, and he is a RH bat. He would probably cost some good prospects, but he is still young 27-28 and would solidify the spot for some time.

Another guy I've thought about but wonder about his defense. He was moved in part because Cabrera is the man long term, but it was also in part because Peralta is a bit short on range as I understand it. Cleveland needs arms and Matt Maloney for Peralta with the Reds throwing in lesser minor league arms (Lecure, Watson, etc) might be a good fit. I don't think it would take much more than that. They could have Rosales or Richar to provide IF depth if they want. But I only want to do it if he's at least an average or a little bit below defender. No Keppinger, Aurilia, Lopez types. If we want that, I'd just promote Valaika or Sutton.

mbgrayson
06-29-2009, 10:03 AM
We have a good right handed bat in Louisville, that should be called up this week. He plays third base, and is only 26 years old, with several years of MLB experience.

In the last 8 games for the Bats, he is batting .286/.412/.536 for an OPS of .947, with two HRs.

Last year in MLB he hit .251/.340/.466 for an OPS of .806, and hit 26 Hrs. This year he was projected by Baseball Prospectus to hit .283/.365/.493 for an OPS of .858, with 24 HRs (I know, just projections...).

Although this guy has fallen in disfavor here at RedsZone, if he gets called up and produces like he is capable of, he would go a long way toward solving the need for a strong RH bat.

YOU know who I mean, don't you? His minor league stats are HERE (http://louisville.bats.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?pos=&sid=t416&t=p_pbp&pid=429665).

mth123
06-29-2009, 10:12 AM
We have a good right handed bat in Louisville, that should be called up this week. He plays third base, and is only 26 years old, with several years of MLB experience.

In the last 8 games for the Bats, he is batting .286/.412/.536 for an OPS of .947, with two HRs.

Last year in MLB he hit .251/.340/.466 for an OPS of .806, and hit 26 Hrs. This year he was projected by Baseball Prospectus to hit .283/.365/.493 for an OPS of .858, with 24 HRs (I know, just projections...).

Although this guy has fallen in disfavor here at RedsZone, if he gets called up and produces like he is capable of, he would go a long way toward solving the need for a strong RH bat.

YOU know who I mean, don't you? His minor league stats are HERE (http://louisville.bats.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?pos=&sid=t416&t=p_pbp&pid=429665).

Agree that EdE is part of the plan. This team needs more though IMO.

Benihana
06-29-2009, 10:22 AM
If I'm Walt I'm calling Cleveland ASAP, and inquiring about Jhonny Peralta, he would fill our biggest position of need at SS, and he is a RH bat. He would probably cost some good prospects, but he is still young 27-28 and would solidify the spot for some time.

That's an interesting thought, although I'd first like to know more about his defense. I agree with the others that he would have to be at least average defensively.

If I could get him for Maloney and other AAA fluff, it might be a decent do so long as he can provide average defense at SS. I like that his contract is up after 2010, which gives flexibility to make a choice at that time between him and Cozart/Valaika. If his defense is not average or better, the Reds would be better off signing Julio Lugo, assuming he is released. I like that Lugo could leadoff, at least until Taveras is gone.

As far as the other names in the article go, color me underwhelmed. I want no part of Gary Matthews Jr. or Ty Wigginton. Josh Willingham is OK, but I'd rather take a chance on one of the Nationals other troubled OFers- Lastings Milledge and/or Elijah Dukes, as they are younger and have more upside, play better defense, and would probably come cheaper. I'm not sure Willingham would be much of an upgrade over Gomes, who has been quite impressive. I would be happy with Holliday, but only if the Reds could acquire him without giving up one of their top 5 prospects (Alonso, Stewart, Frazier, Wood, one of Stubbs/Heisey.) Then and only then would I play Gomes in RF against LHP. Otherwise, Jay Bruce needs to play everyday.

lollipopcurve
06-29-2009, 10:39 AM
Otherwise, Jay Bruce needs to play everyday.

Bruce is going to needs some days off, no matter who's around. It's a long season, it's going to get hotter, and he seems like the type of player who benefits from the mental break, too. Getting another RH bat -- like Willingham -- who can hurt lefties will allow the team to put a pretty good lineup out there on days when Bruce does sit.

Kc61
06-29-2009, 10:59 AM
Gomes is belting the ball, I guess they have no confidence in his defense. I doubt they will get a better platoon hitter than Gomes for left field.

The primary need right now is a big bat for left field. Not a platoon guy, but a big bat. Matt Holliday. A difference maker.

If it's a shortstop they want, it also makes sense but he has to be good -- materially better than the Hairston/Janish combo.

Frankly, I don't understand where they intended to play DeRosa.

I can't figure all this out, except the Reds have 13 pitchers, they only need to keep 12, so they seem to be looking for one more position player. My guess is they are trying to trade a reliever for a bench hitter.

I've now seen Roenicke pitch several times, if they give him up for a fill-in bench player, they are making a mistake.

Redmachine2003
06-29-2009, 11:27 AM
We also have some RH bats coming through the system in Stubbs, Heisey, and Fraizer. More than anything I think this team needs to go out and find a SS stop that can hit and play avg Defense.

RedlegJake
06-29-2009, 11:29 AM
Any bat the Reds land needs to be an upgrade over the player he replaces. Looking at Gomes/Nix splits, Hanigan/Hernandez, Dickerson IF Dusty would play him over Taveras, Bruce, Votto, BP, and with EE returning - the only spot I see a possibility of a real upgrade is SS. Getting a decent hitting sub who can play either corner to spell Joey and EE might help somewhat.

Replacing Gomes/Nix platoon numbers would require a star caliber player. Holliday would be that but the increase in numbers wouldn't be all that, imo. Most of what Matt would bring is stability and track record - and I think there's some room for argument there about whether he's a product of Coors.

Bruce isn't going anywhere, neither is Votto or the catching tandem of H/H. Pretty much leaves the SS position or if you've given up on EE, third.

SS is even more needful when you look at the minors where Heisey, Stubbs, Valaika, Frazier, Alonso et al bring future bats to the OF and corners. It shouldn't be hard to find Hanigan a reasonable platoon partner for a few years so that leaves SS. Janish is a decent option as the future backup for a while but he isn't a starter. With EE and Votto back the biggest need is SS and a backup for the infield corners, particularly a guy who can play third without being a blackhole at the plate to back EE.

nate
06-29-2009, 11:36 AM
Gomes is belting the ball, I guess they have no confidence in his defense. I doubt they will get a better platoon hitter than Gomes for left field.

The primary need right now is a big bat for left field. Not a platoon guy, but a big bat. Matt Holliday. A difference maker.


Split G GS PA AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI SB CS BB SO BA OBP SLG OPS TB GDP HBP SH SF IBB ROE BAbip tOPS+ sOPS+
as C 74 305 262 27 78 13 2 3 25 3 4 36 25 .298 .379 .397 .776 104 4 0 4 3 4 2 .316 119 116
as 1B 74 323 276 41 80 14 0 12 53 3 1 40 51 .290 .389 .471 .860 130 8 5 2 0 5 4 .319 141 102
as 2B 74 324 284 44 79 14 3 13 57 11 6 29 30 .278 .342 .486 .828 138 11 2 2 7 3 3 .266 130 120
as 3B 74 320 277 23 53 8 0 5 24 1 3 28 56 .191 .278 .274 .553 76 4 7 4 4 1 7 .218 56 49
as SS 74 313 283 33 69 18 1 4 29 7 2 16 45 .244 .293 .357 .650 101 6 5 6 3 4 4 .274 82 84
as LF 74 315 279 36 69 16 2 9 30 1 2 25 76 .247 .316 .416 .732 116 3 5 2 4 1 2 .303 104 88
as CF 74 341 308 48 75 15 1 2 16 16 3 19 56 .244 .289 .318 .607 98 4 2 9 3 0 5 .289 71 62
as RF 74 321 283 38 64 12 1 18 43 3 2 35 61 .226 .315 .466 .781 132 3 2 0 1 2 2 .224 117 97
as DH 9 38 32 5 11 3 0 3 7 1 0 5 8 .344 .447 .719 1.166 23 1 1 0 0 0 0 .381 222 195
as P 65 157 133 9 21 4 1 1 8 0 0 5 49 .158 .188 .226 .414 30 4 0 19 0 0 1 .241 16 145
as PH 60 111 94 13 22 8 2 2 10 1 0 17 31 .234 .351 .426 .777 40 3 0 0 0 2 0 .328 118 139
as Infield 74 1585 1382 168 359 67 6 37 188 21 12 149 207 .260 .336 .397 .734 549 33 19 18 17 17 20 .279 106 94
as Outfield 74 977 870 122 208 43 4 29 89 20 7 79 193 .239 .306 .398 .704 346 10 9 11 8 3 9 .273 97 82
at Def. Pos. 74 1283 1137 152 301 60 7 22 127 33 11 100 156 .265 .325 .388 .713 441 25 9 21 16 11 14 .286 100 95
at Off. Pos. 74 1279 1115 138 266 50 3 44 150 8 8 128 244 .239 .325 .407 .732 454 18 19 8 9 9 15 .266 105 85
I think the team would get better bang for the buck improvement by making the worst offensive performers closer to average than by making the slightly below average offensive performers closer to average. Now, if they're going to make the slightly below average performers way above average, I'm all for that, but it will be 'spensive.

To that end, maybe the best improvement comes from...doing nothing and letting EE get back and not playing WT in CF. Maybe the best improvement comes from, get this, getting another pitcher.

nate
06-29-2009, 11:38 AM
Oh, and I reaffirm my stance that I could care less what side of the plate the guy swings from. I only care that he's a good hitter with no extreme handedness split.

edabbs44
06-29-2009, 11:52 AM
Oh, and I reaffirm my stance that I could care less what side of the plate the guy swings from. I only care that he's a good hitter with no extreme handedness split.

I think, generally, LH hitters fare worse vs LHPs than RH hitters do vs RHPs. To find a good LH bat who doesn't struggle vs LHPs would be quite the acquisition, but might be an impossibility when factoring in availability and cost. Hence the need for the generic RH bat, since they will likely be more balanced and better versus LHPs.

Disclaimer: Zero research done on the statistical side of this post. But I would think it is fairly accurate.

nate
06-29-2009, 12:06 PM
I think, generally, LH hitters fare worse vs LHPs than RH hitters do vs RHPs. To find a good LH bat who doesn't struggle vs LHPs would be quite the acquisition, but might be an impossibility when factoring in availability and cost. Hence the need for the generic RH bat, since they will likely be more balanced and better versus LHPs.

Disclaimer: Zero research done on the statistical side of this post. But I would think it is fairly accurate.


Oh, and I reaffirm my stance that I could care less what side of the plate the guy swings from. I only care that he's a good hitter with no extreme handedness split.

I'm saying get the best hitter who doesn't have an extreme vs. LHP/RHP split.

REDREAD
06-29-2009, 12:21 PM
That's an interesting thought, although I'd first like to know more about his defense. I agree with the others that he would have to be at least average defensively.
.

Peralta is not a good defensive SS, IMO. That's why Cleveland has soured on him.

However, the Reds are so poor at SS, he's definitely worth considering. He would certainly give the offense a boost.

If the Reds picked up Peralta, they could eventually move him to 3b if they get the SS they really wanted. IMO, he could hit well enough to justify being at 3b.

Worth talking to the Indians about Peralta, but I wouldn't sell the farm for him. I would trade significant prospects for a solid, long term answer at SS though, just don't think Peralta is that guy.

hebroncougar
06-29-2009, 12:25 PM
I think, generally, LH hitters fare worse vs LHPs than RH hitters do vs RHPs. To find a good LH bat who doesn't struggle vs LHPs would be quite the acquisition, but might be an impossibility when factoring in availability and cost. Hence the need for the generic RH bat, since they will likely be more balanced and better versus LHPs.

Disclaimer: Zero research done on the statistical side of this post. But I would think it is fairly accurate.


Abreu comes to mind.......oh wait, we could have had him for real cheap in December.

edabbs44
06-29-2009, 12:25 PM
I'm saying get the best hitter who doesn't have an extreme vs. LHP/RHP split.

And all I was saying is that the hitter you are describing above will probably be RH.

edabbs44
06-29-2009, 12:28 PM
Abreu comes to mind.......oh wait, we could have had him for real cheap in December.

1) He wouldn't have come to Cincy under those terms, but that has been hashed out over many months.

2) He has 1 HR in 77 PAs versus LHP, not that he is hitting with much power vs RHPs as well.

They want more pop than what Abreu would provide.

bucksfan2
06-29-2009, 12:51 PM
Couple of thoughts.

- If the Reds acquirer an Wiggington, Willingham, etc. that won't help out much. They aren't much better than what is in house already.

- Bruce is the RF of now and in the future. I can see giving him a day off from time to time but I don't agree with getting a platoon player for him. He needs to learn how to hit LH pitching and the only way to do so is get as many reps as possible.

- If the Reds are able to acquirer Holliday (or another legit offensive player) the need at SS isn't as pressing. They could play Janish or Gonzo when healthy and bat them 8th.

- If we are counting on Edwin to come back and provide a big impact we are going to be sorely disappointed. His bat will be nice and will definatly improve the offensive output from 3b, but it isn't enough to give his team a much needed offensive boost.

- Lugo at the league minimum is growing on me. He may not be a good defender but his offensive may help. It especially would help if Edwin doesn't cut it at third. He could be the ideal lead off hitter in the Reds lineup.

Nasty_Boy
06-29-2009, 12:56 PM
They could play Janish or Gonzo when healthy and bat them 8th.


The problem with this is you are using logic... Dusty logic is much different than that of 95% of the population.

Benihana
06-29-2009, 01:03 PM
Peralta is not a good defensive SS, IMO. That's why Cleveland has soured on him.

However, the Reds are so poor at SS, he's definitely worth considering. He would certainly give the offense a boost.

If the Reds picked up Peralta, they could eventually move him to 3b if they get the SS they really wanted. IMO, he could hit well enough to justify being at 3b.

Worth talking to the Indians about Peralta, but I wouldn't sell the farm for him. I would trade significant prospects for a solid, long term answer at SS though, just don't think Peralta is that guy.

If Peralta and Lugo are comparable defensively, I'd rather sign Lugo for the league minimum than trade anything of value for Peralta.

mth123
06-29-2009, 01:08 PM
In regard to the RH bat, the Reds have one spot that could use a huge boost against LHP and that is RF. While I agree with the sentiment that Bruce needs to play against them to learn, if this team is trading prospects to compete this season, then Bruce development needs to take a back seat. He's Taverasesque against lefty pitching and if the team is trying to win, sitting him and letting a guy with a better chance play should be part of the plan. He can go to winter ball to see more lefty pitching.

If the plan is development, then play him every day, keep the prospects and sell off Weathers, Hernandez, Hairston and and possibly Arroyo. Since Walt says we're buyers, a RH bat to play RF against lefties should be on the shopping list.

TRF
06-29-2009, 01:09 PM
Couple of thoughts.
- If the Reds are able to acquirer Holliday (or another legit offensive player) the need at SS isn't as pressing. They could play Janish or Gonzo when healthy and bat them 8th.


Not if Taveras is still leading off. No way you can hide both those bats. LF is a red herring. SS is the problem, less of one if Dickerson is the starting CF.



- If we are counting on Edwin to come back and provide a big impact we are going to be sorely disappointed. His bat will be nice and will definatly improve the offensive output from 3b, but it isn't enough to give his team a much needed offensive boost.

Reds at 3B this year, including 19 games with EE injured but playing:

.191 .278 .274 .553

I'm fairly certain he can best that line by .300 points of OPS, and that is a HUGE boost.

OnBaseMachine
06-29-2009, 01:26 PM
- Bruce is the RF of now and in the future. I can see giving him a day off from time to time but I don't agree with getting a platoon player for him. He needs to learn how to hit LH pitching and the only way to do so is get as many reps as possible.

I agree 100%.


Lugo at the league minimum is growing on me. He may not be a good defender but his offensive may help. It especially would help if Edwin doesn't cut it at third. He could be the ideal lead off hitter in the Reds lineup.

I disagree with this. Lugo is Keppinger-esque at SS. I want no part of that.

bucksfan2
06-29-2009, 01:32 PM
Not if Taveras is still leading off. No way you can hide both those bats. LF is a red herring. SS is the problem, less of one if Dickerson is the starting CF.

If Dickerson is producing he will find his way into the lineup. If he continues to play well he will take more and more starts away from Taveras. Last year Patterson was awful and Dusty did remove him from the lineup. Lets pretend that the Reds make two moves before the trading deadline. They trade for Holliday and sign Lugo to a league minimum deal. IMO with Holliday in the fold Dickerson would bump Taveras out of CF and Lugo would become the new lead off hitter. The Reds lineup would look like this.

Lugo SS
Dickerson CF
Votto 1B
Holliday LF
Phillips 2B
Bruce RF
Encarnacion 3b
Hernandez C
Pithcer

Those two moves are very unlikely to happen but if they are done it would make the lineup very much better without sacrificing defense too much. Even if Lugo isn't acquired I can still see Dickerson start to take most of the PT away from Taveras if he produces. Dusty may be stubborn and a players manager but if Dickerson is out producing WT he will be in the lineup.


Reds at 3B this year, including 19 games with EE injured but playing:

.191 .278 .274 .553

I'm fairly certain he can best that line by .300 points of OPS, and that is a HUGE boost.

Edwin is responsible for those paltry offensive numbers. His current OPS is under .200. Injury or not he was awful at the plate and I am waiting for him to prove his offensive game before I start to believe in those lofty offensive numbers.

OnBaseMachine
06-29-2009, 01:33 PM
I like Josh Willingham quite a bit but I'm not sure how much of an upgrade he is over the Laynce Nix/Johnny Gomes platoon. Gary Matthews Jr.? Ugh. Jocketty should be fired if he even thinks about acquiring Matthews. Right now, I think our two biggest needs is shortstop and another starting pitcher. The loss of Volquez really hurts. A guy like Doug Davis would be a nice pickup.

Benihana
06-29-2009, 01:36 PM
I'm going to be really pissed if they trade for Gary Matthews Jr. That will lend to the theory that Dusty is really the one calling the shots on player acquisitions (Patterson, Hairston, Taveras, Matthews, etc.)

Benihana
06-29-2009, 01:39 PM
I like Josh Willingham quite a bit but I'm not sure how much of an upgrade he is over the Laynce Nix/Johnny Gomes platoon. Gary Matthews Jr.? Ugh. Jocketty should be fired if he even thinks about acquiring Matthews.

Agree.


Right now, I think our two biggest needs is shortstop and another starting pitcher. The loss of Volquez really hurts. A guy like Doug Davis would be a nice pickup.

Disagree. I don't think any stopgap veterans need to be added to this staff. Bailey is currently replacing Volquez, and will remain in the rotation even after EV returns (meaning Arroyo or Owings is likely out at that time.) Matt Maloney or Justin Lehr can make a spot start if neccessary. I'm not sure where Doug Davis would fit in.

mth123
06-29-2009, 01:42 PM
I like Josh Willingham quite a bit but I'm not sure how much of an upgrade he is over the Laynce Nix/Johnny Gomes platoon. Gary Matthews Jr.? Ugh. Jocketty should be fired if he even thinks about acquiring Matthews. Right now, I think our two biggest needs is shortstop and another starting pitcher. The loss of Volquez really hurts. A guy like Doug Davis would be a nice pickup.

I don't think Willingham is an upgrade over the platoon, but he is an upgrade as a RH who can spot in for Bruce and his sub .600 OPS against lefty pitching. Also, he would be the guy to back up Votto instead of overtaxing Hernandez and sending him into another tailspin. Depth is good. I wouldn't trade tons to get him, but he'd surely help and if taking on his bucks and giving up a middling prospect gets it done, I say do it.

Caveat Emperor
06-29-2009, 02:08 PM
Last year in MLB he hit .251/.340/.466 for an OPS of .806, and hit 26 Hrs. This year he was projected by Baseball Prospectus to hit .283/.365/.493 for an OPS of .858, with 24 HRs (I know, just projections...).

Although this guy has fallen in disfavor here at RedsZone, if he gets called up and produces like he is capable of, he would go a long way toward solving the need for a strong RH bat.

YOU know who I mean, don't you? His minor league stats are HERE (http://louisville.bats.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?pos=&sid=t416&t=p_pbp&pid=429665).

The player of whom you speak also plays well-below average defense at 3b. Considering I full expect Hairston to be delployed at SS when he returns, it sets the stage for one of the (if not the) worst defensive left-sides in the league.

lollipopcurve
06-29-2009, 02:16 PM
The player of whom you speak also plays well-below average defense at 3b. Considering I full expect Hairston to be delployed at SS when he returns, it sets the stage for one of the (if not the) worst defensive left-sides in the league.

Agreed -- and Votto is not exactly a vacuum cleaner of poor throws either. Could get messy.

Tom Servo
06-29-2009, 02:22 PM
I don't think Willingham is an upgrade over the platoon, but he is an upgrade as a RH who can spot in for Bruce and his sub .600 OPS against lefty pitching. Also, he would be the guy to back up Votto instead of overtaxing Hernandez and sending him into another tailspin. Depth is good. I wouldn't trade tons to get him, but he'd surely help and if taking on his bucks and giving up a middling prospect gets it done, I say do it.
I completely agree with this. Willingham would just be a good addition to the team in general.

reds44
06-29-2009, 03:01 PM
We have a good right handed bat in Louisville, that should be called up this week. He plays third base, and is only 26 years old, with several years of MLB experience.

In the last 8 games for the Bats, he is batting .286/.412/.536 for an OPS of .947, with two HRs.

Last year in MLB he hit .251/.340/.466 for an OPS of .806, and hit 26 Hrs. This year he was projected by Baseball Prospectus to hit .283/.365/.493 for an OPS of .858, with 24 HRs (I know, just projections...).

Although this guy has fallen in disfavor here at RedsZone, if he gets called up and produces like he is capable of, he would go a long way toward solving the need for a strong RH bat.

YOU know who I mean, don't you? His minor league stats are HERE (http://louisville.bats.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?pos=&sid=t416&t=p_pbp&pid=429665).
Oh I agree with this, and everything I have said has been assuming that Edwin would become the 3rd baseman as soon as he is deemed ready. With EE in the lineup (assuming he does what he normally does and OPS in low .800s) I still think the Reds are a bat short. Now if EE finally put it together and turned into a .900+ OPS, it could change my mind, but i'm not willing to pin my playoff chances on hoping for something.

Having EE come back and be EE, and adding a guy like Yunell Escobar would take the left side of the infied from awful to above average, that would be a huge upgrade.

reds44
06-29-2009, 03:07 PM
Couple of thoughts.

- If the Reds acquirer an Wiggington, Willingham, etc. that won't help out much. They aren't much better than what is in house already.

- Bruce is the RF of now and in the future. I can see giving him a day off from time to time but I don't agree with getting a platoon player for him. He needs to learn how to hit LH pitching and the only way to do so is get as many reps as possible.

- If the Reds are able to acquirer Holliday (or another legit offensive player) the need at SS isn't as pressing. They could play Janish or Gonzo when healthy and bat them 8th.

- If we are counting on Edwin to come back and provide a big impact we are going to be sorely disappointed. His bat will be nice and will definatly improve the offensive output from 3b, but it isn't enough to give his team a much needed offensive boost.

- Lugo at the league minimum is growing on me. He may not be a good defender but his offensive may help. It especially would help if Edwin doesn't cut it at third. He could be the ideal lead off hitter in the Reds lineup.
I don't think anybody is expecting Edwin to be anythiing that he hasn't been in his career. EE, Hairston, and Rosales (the 3 players who have gotten nearly all the ABs at 3B) have OPS'd .701, .561, and .476 respectively. If Edwin can just OPS .800 the rest of the year it would be a huge upgrade.

Benihana
06-29-2009, 03:26 PM
Having EE come back and be EE, and adding a guy like Yunell Escobar would take the left side of the infied from awful to above average, that would be a huge upgrade.

I would think that Escobar might be cost-prohibitive in terms of talent to acquire. The only time I've heard his name in trade talks was when Jake Peavy was involved. I would think that Yonder Alonso would have to be included in such a deal and then some.

TRF
06-29-2009, 06:22 PM
If Dickerson is producing he will find his way into the lineup. If he continues to play well he will take more and more starts away from Taveras. Last year Patterson was awful and Dusty did remove him from the lineup. Lets pretend that the Reds make two moves before the trading deadline. They trade for Holliday and sign Lugo to a league minimum deal. IMO with Holliday in the fold Dickerson would bump Taveras out of CF and Lugo would become the new lead off hitter. The Reds lineup would look like this.

Lugo SS
Dickerson CF
Votto 1B
Holliday LF
Phillips 2B
Bruce RF
Encarnacion 3b
Hernandez C
Pithcer

Those two moves are very unlikely to happen but if they are done it would make the lineup very much better without sacrificing defense too much. Even if Lugo isn't acquired I can still see Dickerson start to take most of the PT away from Taveras if he produces. Dusty may be stubborn and a players manager but if Dickerson is out producing WT he will be in the lineup.

Edwin is responsible for those paltry offensive numbers. His current OPS is under .200. Injury or not he was awful at the plate and I am waiting for him to prove his offensive game before I start to believe in those lofty offensive numbers.

He proved it last year.

And the year before.

He doesn't have to prove anything. All he has to do is be healthy.

TheNext44
06-29-2009, 06:34 PM
I would think that Escobar might be cost-prohibitive in terms of talent to acquire. The only time I've heard his name in trade talks was when Jake Peavy was involved. I would think that Yonder Alonso would have to be included in such a deal and then some.

I am not sure that Escobar is the guy, but if the Reds could get a young SS that could play league average defense or better, and OPS at least .750, I would gladly trade Alonso + for that.

Will M
06-29-2009, 06:44 PM
The player of whom you speak also plays well-below average defense at 3b. Considering I full expect Hairston to be delployed at SS when he returns, it sets the stage for one of the (if not the) worst defensive left-sides in the league.

1. Walt needs to get a real SS. we have the trade chips in the system to get it done.

2. Walt needs to admit his mistake and DFA Taveras. He has negative value. Then the centerfielder can be Dickerson (+- Hairston vs LHP)

Imagine...
CF Dickerson (+- Hairston)
3B EE
1B Votto
2B Phillips
LF Nix/Gomes
RF Bruce
C Hanigan/Hernandez
SS a real major league player who can field & hit a little.

THAT is a pretty good lineup. If Walt could get a SS I would be excited over the team. We would still need a healthy Volquez or Bailey stepping up big time but the key acquisition MUST be a shortstop.

reds44
06-29-2009, 07:56 PM
He proved it last year.

And the year before.

He doesn't have to prove anything. All he has to do is be healthy.
This.

Caveat Emperor
06-29-2009, 08:43 PM
This.

It also wouldn't hurt if he magically turned into a competent defender at third base -- as it stands, his inability to play defense robs his bat of the impact it might otherwise have.

Looking at his errors alone, he gave the opposition almost a game's worth of free Outs last year (23), and that doesn't even get into his limited range at third base and all the balls that a better defender WOULD get to that turned into base hits or doubles down the line.

Encarnacion is the best of whats around when it comes to third basemen on the Reds 40 man roster -- but he isn't so far above replacement level or so good that the Reds shouldn't actively be pursuing a better player for his spot.

As it stands, their pursuit of DeRosa is a pretty fair indicator that the Reds probably value Encarnacion appropriately.

Homer Bailey
06-29-2009, 08:54 PM
It also wouldn't hurt if he magically turned into a competent defender at third base -- as it stands, his inability to play defense robs his bat of the impact it might otherwise have.

Looking at his errors alone, he gave the opposition almost a game's worth of free Outs last year (23), and that doesn't even get into his limited range at third base and all the balls that a better defender WOULD get to that turned into base hits or doubles down the line.

Encarnacion is the best of whats around when it comes to third basemen on the Reds 40 man roster -- but he isn't so far above replacement level or so good that the Reds shouldn't actively be pursuing a better player for his spot.

As it stands, their pursuit of DeRosa is a pretty fair indicator that the Reds probably value Encarnacion appropriately.

THIS.

RedsManRick
06-29-2009, 09:00 PM
I think this little valuation table from Fangraphs sums it up nicely. EE is certainly an imperfect player, but he's a huge upgrade over the level of production we've gotten so far and it would be expensive for us to acquire somebody who is a marked upgrade from him.


Season Team Batting Fldg Rplmt Pos RAR WAR Dollars Salary

2005 Reds -0.9 0.8 7.8 1.1 8.8 0.9 $3.0
2006 Reds 8.9 -9.4 15.6 1.6 16.7 1.6 $6.0 $0.3
2007 Reds 7.4 -11.7 18.7 2.1 16.6 1.6 $6.6 $0.4
2008 Reds 9.4 -9.8 19.4 2.3 21.3 2.1 $9.5 $0.5
2009 Reds -6.0 -3.5 2.6 0.3 -6.7 -0.7 -$3.0

Total* - - - 18.9 -33.6 64.0 7.4 56.7 5.6 $22.1 $1.2

Here's a link (http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/glossary/#winvalues)for the background on these numbers. These are park adjusted runs, fwiw. In short, EE is an above average bat, a below average fielder, and overall a 1.5-2.0 win (above replacement) player. His bat has shown the potential to push his overall value up by a win or so; but that remains to be seen.

Since busting out in a full time role in 2006, DeRosa has been roughly a 3 win player. So assuming EE merely replicates what he's averaged and does not improve, DeRosa is something on the order of .5 win better than EE for the rest of the season. Not anything to get worked up over -- and certainly not an upgrade worth trading away legitimate major league talent for.

With Gomes finally in the majors and crushing the ball and Dickerson establishing himself as a verifiable major leaguer, SS is the glaring issue. Holliday would be nice to have if he were cheap, but he won't be. I think he'd hit much better in GABP and he is a plus defender. However, he's not going to sign an extension and it's just not worth the price. One guy who would at least be a decent SS replacement, is likely available, has some upside, and wouldn't cost the farm is Stephen Drew.

mth123
06-29-2009, 09:07 PM
I'd go hard after Drew if he's really available. I'd pay a lot and try to get Doug Davis at the same time (FCB would love it).

mth123
06-29-2009, 09:11 PM
Maloney, Wood, Valiaka, Stubbs, Frazier and Roenicke for Drew and Davis.

reds44
06-29-2009, 09:32 PM
It also wouldn't hurt if he magically turned into a competent defender at third base -- as it stands, his inability to play defense robs his bat of the impact it might otherwise have.

Looking at his errors alone, he gave the opposition almost a game's worth of free Outs last year (23), and that doesn't even get into his limited range at third base and all the balls that a better defender WOULD get to that turned into base hits or doubles down the line.

Encarnacion is the best of whats around when it comes to third basemen on the Reds 40 man roster -- but he isn't so far above replacement level or so good that the Reds shouldn't actively be pursuing a better player for his spot.

As it stands, their pursuit of DeRosa is a pretty fair indicator that the Reds probably value Encarnacion appropriately.
And as I've been saying for years now, when the Reds find an actual replacement for Edwin at 3rd base, somebody who is you know, better at baseball than he is, I'll be all for replacing him.

I understand EE is a bad defender, and also understand he's going to OPS around .800 every year. There's a chance he improves, and probably very little chance he gets any worse anytime soon.

You have no idea where the Reds were planning on playing DeRosa if they got him, so you can't say it's a fair indicator of anything.

reds44
06-29-2009, 09:34 PM
I think this little valuation table from Fangraphs sums it up nicely. EE is certainly an imperfect player, but he's a huge upgrade over the level of production we've gotten so far and it would be expensive for us to acquire somebody who is marked upgrade from him.


Season Team Batting Fldg Rplmt Pos RAR WAR Dollars Salary

2005 Reds -0.9 0.8 7.8 1.1 8.8 0.9 $3.0
2006 Reds 8.9 -9.4 15.6 1.6 16.7 1.6 $6.0 $0.3
2007 Reds 7.4 -11.7 18.7 2.1 16.6 1.6 $6.6 $0.4
2008 Reds 9.4 -9.8 19.4 2.3 21.3 2.1 $9.5 $0.5
2009 Reds -6.0 -3.5 2.6 0.3 -6.7 -0.7 -$3.0

Total* - - - 18.9 -33.6 64.0 7.4 56.7 5.6 $22.1 $1.2

Here's a link (http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/glossary/#winvalues)for the background on these numbers. These are park adjusted runs, fwiw. In short, EE is an above average bat, a below average , and overall a 1.5-2.0 win (above replacement) player. His bat has shown the potential to push his overall value up by a win or so; but that remains to be seen.

Since busting out in a full time role in 2006, DeRosa has been roughly a 3 win player. So assuming EE merely replicates what he's averaged and does not improve, DeRosa is something on the order of .5 win better than EE for the rest of the season. Not anything to get worked up over -- and certainly not an upgrade worth trading away legitimate major league talent for.

With Gomes finally in the majors and crushing the ball and Dickerson establishing himself as a verifiable major leaguer, SS is the glaring issue. Holliday would be nice to have if he were cheap, but he won't be. I think he'd hit much better in GABP and he is a plus defender. However, he's not going to sign an extension and it's just not worth the price. One guy who would at least be a decent SS replacement, is likely available, has some upside, and wouldn't cost the farm is Stephen Drew.
Again, you hit the nail on the head. I don't understand why it is so hard for some people to accept what EE is at this point in his career, a slighty above average major league player (at the age of 26) with a chance of getting better. 3rd base isn't a need for the Reds right now compared to SS and even LF.

Will M
06-29-2009, 10:27 PM
Maloney, Wood, Valiaka, Stubbs, Frazier and Roenicke for Drew and Davis.

lets simplify things:

Drew was good last year. 21 HRs. OPS+ 110. This year his OPS+ is 87.
why the drop off? I don't know what he is like defensively.
Question #1: if Drew really is available do we want him?

Question #2: what would it take to get him & is it worth it for the Reds?

Question #3: what other shortstops are available and what would it take to get them?

Spitball
06-29-2009, 11:43 PM
I'd love to see the Reds explore Brandon Wood from the Angels. I think he makes a lot of sense for the Reds.

First, he is an excellent defensive player. I watched quite a bit of the guy play shortstop a few years ago and was impressed with his fluidity and footwork. Before I witnessed his game, I assumed he was a Felipe Lopez type defensive player but was really surprised. His defense is very smooth. He is not is not in Erik Aybar's class, but he is good. He can play shortstop for the Reds or move to third and win a Gold Glove.

His offense could also be a plus. Forget the 43 homeruns a few years ago. He would be a thirty plus homerun guy in the GABP.

I would love to see this 24-year old bring his right handed bat between Votto and Bruce for the next several years. He could play short or third and provide a productive right handed bat to the line-up.

Would they take Arroyo?

Caveat Emperor
06-30-2009, 12:30 AM
Again, you hit the nail on the head. I don't understand why it is so hard for some people to accept what EE is at this point in his career, a slighty above average major league player (at the age of 26) with a chance of getting better. 3rd base isn't a need for the Reds right now compared to SS and even LF.

The issue is, as always, cost and value to the team to acquire better players.

Acquiring a SS that can hit and field would likely cost the team a fair amount of talent -- they're scarce prospects and teams that do successfully develop true SS prospects don't give them up easily.

Acquiring a 3B that can hit and field, on the other hand, is usually a fair sight easier. Improving 3B to plus-defense and above-average offensive production would free the Reds to deploy a more defensive-oriented SS in their lineup -- either via someone in-house like Paul Janish or via a trade for a glove-ready SS prospect with some possible bat-upside (which teams are usually more willing to part with).

The decision is really a no-brainer for me -- be on the lookout for a good deal to improve SS if a good opportunity comes along, but set your sights on improving 3B. Focus on talent you don't have to overpay to acquire.

Patrick Bateman
06-30-2009, 12:35 AM
The issue is, as always, cost and value to the team to acquire better players.

Acquiring a SS that can hit and field would likely cost the team a fair amount of talent -- they're scarce prospects and teams that do successfully develop true SS prospects don't give them up easily.



Except you don't need that. You just need to find a SS that's better thsn Paul Janish or whichever utility player is chosen to play SS for the day. The Reds actually have a respectable starter at 3rd, making improving SS an easier task.

reds44
06-30-2009, 12:56 AM
You're focusing on trying to improve a position that doesn't need improvement. Edwin is not the issue, SS is. Why spend talent to acquire a 3rd baseman when you already have an above average 3rd baseman? The Reds most obvious needs are 1. SS and 2. LF.

Acquiring an above average SS will improve the team by a lot. You're going to have to get a top 10 3rd baseman (if not better) in the majors to improve 3rd base to give yourself anywhere near the improvement you would from just trading for a decent SS.

I understand your point about it taking more resources to acquire a SS than a 3rd baseman, and I don't necessarily disagree with it. I've said throughout the course of the thread even if the Reds acquire a guy like Escobar, I think they are still an impact bat away from being legit contenders. If the Reds can acquire a 3rd baseman who is an impact bat, I'd be all for it.

However, for their careers:
DeRosa: .278/.347/.425/.772
Encarnacion: .261/.343/.445/.789

For his career, DeRosa in 12 seasons has OPS'd above .800 twice. EE has done the same thing in 5 seasons. DeRosa's career OPS+ is 98, where as Edwin's is 101. DeRosa wouldn't have been worth the resources they would have given up if he was going to play 3rd base. Not to mention EE is 26 compared to DeRosa at 34. If the Reds would have acquire DeRosa they would have been best served to move Phillips to SS and play DeRosa at 2B. You would have filled your SS hole by acquiring a 2nd baseman.

Focus on acquiring a SS who can hit and field. The less black holes you have in the lineup the better.


Except you don't need that. You just need to find a SS that's better thsn Paul Janish or whichever utility player is chosen to play SS for the day. The Reds actually have a respectable starter at 3rd, making improving SS an easier task.
Yes, the Reds would have to acquire a much better 3rd baseman to improve the team to the level by acquiring a halfway decent SS. I think that should kill the it would take more resources to acquire a SS than 3rd baseman.

mbgrayson
06-30-2009, 02:05 AM
The issue is, as always, cost and value to the team to acquire better players.

Acquiring a SS that can hit and field would likely cost the team a fair amount of talent -- they're scarce prospects and teams that do successfully develop true SS prospects don't give them up easily.

Acquiring a 3B that can hit and field, on the other hand, is usually a fair sight easier. Improving 3B to plus-defense and above-average offensive production would free the Reds to deploy a more defensive-oriented SS in their lineup -- either via someone in-house like Paul Janish or via a trade for a glove-ready SS prospect with some possible bat-upside (which teams are usually more willing to part with).

The decision is really a no-brainer for me -- be on the lookout for a good deal to improve SS if a good opportunity comes along, but set your sights on improving 3B. Focus on talent you don't have to overpay to acquire.

No, I focus on shortstop. We need to find our next long term answer there. That up the middle defense is essential, and he needs to be able to hit too. We need another Larkin or Concepcion to build the next Reds dynasty. I am surprsised we haven't tried to draft a top line shortstop the last couple years.

Baseball America's 2009 Prospect Handbook lists the following as the Reds depth chart in the minors at short:
1. Chris Valaika "Valaika continues to survive at shortstop, and has the bat to profile at 2nd base if he needs to move. Valaika doesn't have the quick feet clubs want at short, though his quick release and strong arm help make up for the lack of range..." Valaika is struggling badly at Louisville, hitting .194/.237/.310 for an OPS of .547. Chris was injured for much of May and the first half of June.
2. Paul Cozart "Managers rated him the best fielding shortstop in the Midwest League in 2008..." Cozart is hitting very well at Carolina in AA ball, .287/.371/.454 for an OPS of .825.
3. Paul Janish. We know about Paul, good glove, little hitting.

In the 2009 draft, the first shortstop the Reds took was in the 2nd round, where we took Billy Hamilton. They have signed him, and he has been assigned to the GCL Reds. After five games, he is 8 for 20. He was only a high school player, so he will be several years away. Hamilton was ranked as the 99th best high school draft prospect, so the Reds reached to draft him in the second round.

All of this simply goes to show that we need a shortstop. Cozart offers some hope, and I haven't given up on Valaika.

TheNext44
06-30-2009, 02:15 AM
I agree that updating EE with DeRosa is not that much of an upgrade, but mostly because DeRosa is not that much of a better defender than EE. I also agree that SS is a more important upgrade, since neither Janish nor Hairston are above replacement level at that position as a starter.

However, I do think that if EE continues with the defense we have seen the last few years, he needs to be replaced. I really don't care that his bat equals out his glove according to UZR/150 or WAR, or any other stat.

Not having a 3B who can make the regular plays puts too much stress on the pitching staff, which causes all sorts of problems that UZR or any current defensive stat can't measure. It's not just higher pitch counts, it's lack of confidence in your team's defense, and changing your pitching philosophy because of it.

It's no coincidence that Cueto's confidence changed greatly this year. Sure part of it was just growing up, but i think a large part of it was him seeing that he could let the hitters hit the ball and his fielders would make the plays behind him.
Owings really hasn't pitched that great, but has had decent results due to the teams solid defense behind him. And look at the relievers that have done well this year, Rhodes, Weathers, Herrera, Masset. None of them are striking guys out at a record pace, but they all have been throwing strikes and letting hitters get themselves out.

You know the old saying, "A chain is only as strong as its weakest link." I really think that if EE was starting, and making the errors that we are used to, at the same rate as previous years, the Reds pitching staff would not have been nearly as successful, and some might have been much worse.

Who knows, maybe EE puts it together and can play close to league average defense the rest of the year? But if he continues with 20+ errors as season, it will be hard for the Reds to compete. I personally think it would be very difficult for any team to contend all year with a starting infielder whose defense is that bad.

Caveat Emperor
06-30-2009, 03:28 AM
No, I focus on shortstop. We need to find our next long term answer there. That up the middle defense is essential, and he needs to be able to hit too. We need another Larkin or Concepcion to build the next Reds dynasty. I am surprsised we haven't tried to draft a top line shortstop the last couple years.

You're really answering your own question issue here, though.

I don't disagree with the notion that the Reds need to find the next Larkin or Concepcion. I think you do exactly what you suggest, and what the Reds did with Larkin and Concepcion -- draft him or sign him as an international FA.

Look at the top OPS performers at SS last season (min 350 PAs), and see how they were acquired by their various teams (bold indicates player was drafted and developed or signed and developed by his current team):

1. Hanley Ramirez FLA -- Recieved from BOS as part of package for Josh Beckett / Mike Lowell
2. Stephen Drew ARI -- Drafted by ARI
3. Mike Alives KAS -- Drafted by KAS
4. Jose Reyes NYM -- Signed and developed by NYM as an amatuer free agent
5. JJ Hardy MIL -- Drafted by MIL
6. Jhonny Peralta CLE -- Signed and developed by CLE as an amatuer free agent
7. Alexei Ramirez CHW -- Signed as an amatuer free agent by CHW (Cuban defector)
8. Jimmy Rollins PHI -- Drafted by PHI
9. Christian Guzman WAS -- Signed as a FA
10. Derek Jeter NYY -- Drafted by NYY
11. Yunel Escobar ATL -- Drafted by ATL
12. Ryan Theriot CHC -- Drafted by CHC
13. Troy Tulowitzki COL -- Drafted by COL
14. Miguel Tejada HOU -- Received via trade from BAL
15. Nick Punto MIN -- Signed as a FA

So, what does this list tell us? First of all, it tells us that if you want a top-flight shortstop, you better have a spare Cy Young candidate and World Series MVP sitting around, or you really need to think about investing heavily in the scouting department.

I agree that the team should be focusing on acquiring a franchise shortstop, but the time to focus on that is in the buildup to the draft and/or in the international signing period IMO.

Ron Madden
06-30-2009, 04:50 AM
You're focusing on trying to improve a position that doesn't need improvement. Edwin is not the issue, SS is. Why spend talent to acquire a 3rd baseman when you already have an above average 3rd baseman? The Reds most obvious needs are 1. SS and 2. LF.

Acquiring an above average SS will improve the team by a lot. You're going to have to get a top 10 3rd baseman (if not better) in the majors to improve 3rd base to give yourself anywhere near the improvement you would from just trading for a decent SS.

I understand your point about it taking more resources to acquire a SS than a 3rd baseman, and I don't necessarily disagree with it. I've said throughout the course of the thread even if the Reds acquire a guy like Escobar, I think they are still an impact bat away from being legit contenders. If the Reds can acquire a 3rd baseman who is an impact bat, I'd be all for it.

However, for their careers:
DeRosa: .278/.347/.425/.772
Encarnacion: .261/.343/.445/.789

For his career, DeRosa in 12 seasons has OPS'd above .800 twice. EE has done the same thing in 5 seasons. DeRosa's career OPS+ is 98, where as Edwin's is 101. DeRosa wouldn't have been worth the resources they would have given up if he was going to play 3rd base. Not to mention EE is 26 compared to DeRosa at 34. If the Reds would have acquire DeRosa they would have been best served to move Phillips to SS and play DeRosa at 2B. You would have filled your SS hole by acquiring a 2nd baseman.

Focus on acquiring a SS who can hit and field. The less black holes you have in the lineup the better.


Yes, the Reds would have to acquire a much better 3rd baseman to improve the team to the level by acquiring a halfway decent SS. I think that should kill the it would take more resources to acquire a SS than 3rd baseman.


My name is Ron Madden and I approve of this post. :thumbup:

schroomytunes
06-30-2009, 05:05 AM
Yeah we need a SS in the worst way, and the Angels have some guys that could fit the bill very nicely for us:
1)Brandon Wood-AAA
2)Erick Aybar-MLB
3)Macier Izturis-MLB

I would love to land Wood, but I feel the Angels will be asking for some prime talent in return, but it takes talent to land talent so I see what they want and proceed.

The fallback option to me would be Izturis, he's still young plays good defense and hits .270ish with average OBP, he would be more than adequate until Cozart/Valaika are ready. Also, he wouldn't require much to land via trade. This would then allow Hairston to resume his role as a bench player, thus allowing him to be used in a more suitable role.

Spitball
06-30-2009, 09:45 AM
I would love to land Wood, but I feel the Angels will be asking for some prime talent in return, but it takes talent to land talent so I see what they want and proceed.


You know, I'd be happy to see the Reds give up some prime talent to bring a 24 year-old shortstop with Wood's talents to the team. He wouldn't be a stopgap but a long-range solution at shortstop/third base and the number four hitter between Votto and Bruce.

As you mentioned, the Angels have lots of infield options. They recently recalled Sean Rodriguez (another nice bat but doesn't have Wood's glove) over Wood when they needed an infielder. With the Angels in a tight race with the Rangers (and reluctant GM Bill Stoneman gone), they may be willing to gamble Wood for the right parts...

lollipopcurve
06-30-2009, 10:21 AM
I'd be happy to see the Reds give up some prime talent to bring a 24 year-old shortstop with Wood's talents to the team. He wouldn't be a stopgap but a long-range solution at shortstop/third base and the number four hitter between Votto and Bruce.

Wood is not a SS. He has a hard time making contact, too, and his minor league numbers have always been favored by playing in hitter-friendly environments. He may be the most overrated prospect on this board right now -- I mean, if we're talking about him playing SS and hitting cleanup.

The Reds have Valaika and Cozart lined up in the high minors, so there is a decent chance the team will need only a short-term answer at SS. I would not go wasting significant talent in a trade for a "SS of the future," because the truly talented young SSs are not available. Other options may arise out of a grass-is-greener perspective, breeding hallucinations like Brandon Wood -- where we see what we want to see, not what's really there. That's how you end up making a lousy trade.

Spitball
06-30-2009, 10:41 AM
Wood is not a SS.

I disagree. I don't know his defensive stats, but he is a smooth, sure-handed defender. He is a pleasure to watch play defensively. He certainly could competently fill the position until another option could move him to third. At third, I believe he would be a Gold Glove candidate.


He has a hard time making contact, too,

I'm not going there...but he has been making progress in his walk to K rate this season.


...always been favored by playing in hitter-friendly environments

Hmmm...GABP might fit that description. We have seen Randas, Aurillias, and a few others have decent years in Cincy. Brandon Phillips has been in the four hole for much of the Reds' recent history. I can see Wood developing into a thirty-plus homerun hitter.

Besides, what is your basis for this statement.

lollipopcurve
06-30-2009, 10:57 AM
I disagree. I don't know his defensive stats, but he is a smooth, sure-handed defender. He is a pleasure to watch play defensively. He certainly could competently fill the position until another option could move him to third. At third, I believe he would be a Gold Glove candidate.

Reds have plenty of 3B options on the horizon. EdE is signed through 2010 -- that's not changing. Then, Frazier, Francisco, Soto. There's no guarantee Wood's going to be better than all of those guys.

He's been playing 3B/1B at Salt Lake -- not SS. Know who their SS is? Gary Patchett, 29-year-old career minor leaguer who came up with the Reds -- a nonprospect if there ever was one. Why do you think LA is doing that, if Wood profiles as a major league SS?

Wood has played in the California League, the Texas League, and now the PCL. All very favorable hitter's leagues. Check out his home/road splits this year in Salt Lake, too. You have to see his minor league #s through that lens -- he is not as dominating a hitter as the stats suggest on the surface.

Kc61
06-30-2009, 11:26 AM
FWIW, the sense I get from the articles is that the Reds are not looking right now for a young player who could be good in the future. I think they are looking at this from the perspective of a .500 team only 3 games out of first.

My guess is the Reds are willing to give up one good young player to get back a veteran hitter for the bench. Or perhaps a shortstop, but not a kid, rather a veteran who is an upgrade, without a long term commitment.

It's not an accident they have 13 pitchers. I think the Reds feel that their 25th player is a pitcher because they have better pitchers for the slot than hitters. They'd rather have Fisher or Roenicke or Burton on the roster than any hitter at AAA right now.

Perhaps they want to swap that "extra" 13th pitcher for a veteran position player -- a fifth bench player or stop gap starting player.

So I expect a trade of one good young Red, possibly Fisher or Roenicke or Burton or Viola, for a veteran bench player or an older shortstop without a big contractual commitment. Maybe the Reds add a second-tier prospect too.

I'd be shocked if they trade for a Holliday. I'd be surprised if they trade for a young guy like Wood right now. Maybe in the off-season.

TRF
06-30-2009, 12:52 PM
Delmon Young and Brandon Wood. Especially if Young has any options left. Young, Dickerson/Stubbs/Heisey, Bruce could be a dandy OF. Wood could solidify the IF for a decade.

I'd quietly make Alonso available for the right return. La Porta got traded, he can be moved for the right deal.

Spitball
06-30-2009, 01:51 PM
He's been playing 3B/1B at Salt Lake -- not SS. Know who their SS is? Gary Patchett, 29-year-old career minor leaguer who came up with the Reds -- a nonprospect if there ever was one. Why do you think LA is doing that, if Wood profiles as a major league SS?

"He's 6-3 with soft hands and quick feet. He's a natural down there at first. But he's a little concerned, I think, that people might start to think he's not a shortstop. Believe me, he can play short in the big leagues. No question in my mind." - Sean Rodriguez on Brandon Wood

http://lylemspencer.mlblogs.com/archives/2009/06/wood_expanding_his_horizons.html

Why are the Angels playing Wood at third and a spattering of games at first base? Because the Angels see slick Erik Aybar as a potential Rafael Furcal and their future at shortstop. The Angels wisely see Wood as strengthening their prospects at areas of weakness rather than log jamming a position of strength and depth. Wood can play shortstop, but because of the Angels' depth at the position, he will has been moved to third.

Does it mean Wood can't play short because he has played a few games at first? Not a bit of evidence there to prove anything. The Angels have a greater need at first base and it is excellent organizational procedure to give him experience at a position in which he may be needed. Remember the Angels being forced to use a young Howie Kendrick at first base in the American League playoffs couple a of years ago.

Circumstances have caused a position change for Wood and not his lack of ability to play shortstop.


Wood has played in the California League, the Texas League, and now the PCL. All very favorable hitter's leagues.

It seems this would skew numbers of hundreds of prospects. And, I'm not sure I would classify the Texas League as "very" hitter freindly league. He played his home games at spacious Ray Winder Field with its very high fences.


Check out his home/road splits this year in Salt Lake, too. You have to see his minor league #s through that lens -- he is not as dominating a hitter as the stats suggest on the surface.

I've seen this year's splits and am not sure half a season sample is terribly compelling evidence.

Besides, my argument is that he can play shortstop. I've seen Hairston play the position. I've read plenty of suggestions that Brandon Phillips should be moved there or that Julio Lugo should be acquired. I believe Wood would be a better option for the Reds. And, I'm not basing my opinion on assumptions gleaned from circumstantial evidence. It has been a couple of years, but I have seen him at shortstop many times.

Benihana
06-30-2009, 02:21 PM
Delmon Young and Brandon Wood. Especially if Young has any options left. Young, Dickerson/Stubbs/Heisey, Bruce could be a dandy OF. Wood could solidify the IF for a decade.

I'd quietly make Alonso available for the right return. La Porta got traded, he can be moved for the right deal.

I like your targets. However, Alonso's value right now is pretty low considering his injury and slow start in AA. I'm certainly not averse to trading him, but I think I'd give him some time to recover and improve his value. I do however think it's a great time to sell high on Stubbs or Heisey- especially for one of the guys you mentioned.

OnBaseMachine
06-30-2009, 02:28 PM
From Buster Olney:

Red smoke signals

The Reds have been fishing around for a right-handed hitter for weeks, and they continue to look around, rival executives say. But they also are sending signals that they don't have a lot of money with which to make a deal, which leaves them in a bind. They could try to make a dollar-for-dollar trade -- trading one player for another player with a similar salary -- but it might be difficult for them to actually upgrade their lineup that way. They could ask other teams to absorb some salary of a player like a Jermaine Dye or a Matt Holliday, but that would require the Reds to give up a larger package of young talent, something they're reluctant to do. No, in the end, the Reds will probably be left with the choice of busting their budget to take a chance on someone like a Dye or a Holliday, or making marginal upgrades.

The Reds are definitely looking, writes John Fay. Paul Daugherty wonders if the Reds can be bold. As Fay mentions, Josh Willingham makes sense for the Reds, but he also makes sense for a lot of other teams, as well, including the Mets.

http://insider.espn.go.com/espn/blog/index?name=olney_buster&action=login&appRedirect=http%3a%2f%2finsider.espn.go.com%2fesp n%2fblog%2findex%3fname%3dolney_buster

Bumstead
06-30-2009, 02:30 PM
Brandon Wood's games by position the last 7 days in Salt lake: 3B: 4, SS: 2, 1B: 1....Salt Lake's only other decent infielder is Kendrick who is a 2B. The only argument you (Lolly) are using for him not being a SS is that he is big...the only SS on the Reds that Wood may not be as good defensively as, or have a little less range than, is Janish (offensively, he is superior to all Red's SS). He has always been regarded as having the ability to be a SS in MLB. There is so much to like about the 'kid' that I think the Reds should at least place a call and see what the Angels are asking for in return.

Bum

lollipopcurve
06-30-2009, 02:36 PM
"He's 6-3 with soft hands and quick feet. He's a natural down there at first. But he's a little concerned, I think, that people might start to think he's not a shortstop. Believe me, he can play short in the big leagues. No question in my mind." - Sean Rodriguez on Brandon Wood

That's his buddy talking, not a scout.


Why are the Angels playing Wood at third and a spattering of games at first base? Because the Angels see slick Erik Aybar as a potential Rafael Furcal and their future at shortstop. The Angels wisely see Wood as strengthening their prospects at areas of weakness rather than log jamming a position of strength and depth. Wood can play shortstop, but because of the Angels' depth at the position, he will has been moved to third.


What if Aybar gets hurt? Or traded (there have been runors)? The fact is, Wood has FAR more value as a SS than as a 3B or 1B. Why would the Angels diminish his value while in the minors by taking him off the position?


Why are the Angels playing Wood at third and a spattering of games at first base? Because the Angels see slick Erik Aybar as a potential Rafael Furcal and their future at shortstop. The Angels wisely see Wood as strengthening their prospects at areas of weakness rather than log jamming a position of strength and depth. Wood can play shortstop, but because of the Angels' depth at the position, he will has been moved to third.

If he's splattering over there at 1st, I guess it means he can't play there, either.;)

He's not needed at 1B -- young Kendry Morales is having himself a fine year in the bigs.

Again, why not keep him at SS and move Aybar to 2B? It maximizes Wood's value.


I've seen Hairston play the position. I've read plenty of suggestions that Brandon Phillips should be moved there or that Julio Lugo should be acquired. I believe Wood would be a better option for the Reds. And, I'm not basing my opinion on assumptions gleaned from circumstantial evidence. It has been a couple of years, but I have seen him at shortstop many times.

Not arguing that the Reds have a superb option at the major leagues now, though Janish can field the position. If it's been years since you've seen Wood there, it's possible he has followed the path that some thought he would -- getting bigger, filling out, losing the necessary range to be a big leaguer there. That process may be underway, and it's only going to continue.

NJReds
06-30-2009, 03:19 PM
From Buster Olney:
As Fay mentions, Josh Willingham makes sense for the Reds, but he also makes sense for a lot of other teams, as well, including the Mets.


The Mets have absolutely nothing to trade at this point, unless they want to part with Martinez. The cupboard is bare. Now word is that Beltran could be out for the year because he might need microfracture surgery on his knee, so if they were really searching for a bat and CF replacement it would make more sense to go for Vernon Wells or Alex Rios.

Caveat Emperor
06-30-2009, 03:24 PM
The Mets have absolutely nothing to trade at this point, unless they want to part with Martinez. The cupboard is bare. Now word is that Beltran could be out for the year because he might need microfracture surgery on his knee, so if they were really searching for a bat and CF replacement it would make more sense to go for Vernon Wells or Alex Rios.

If they're willing to trade us just the empty cupboard, I'd send them back Willy Taveras.

reds44
06-30-2009, 03:32 PM
From Buster Olney:

Red smoke signals

The Reds have been fishing around for a right-handed hitter for weeks, and they continue to look around, rival executives say. But they also are sending signals that they don't have a lot of money with which to make a deal, which leaves them in a bind. They could try to make a dollar-for-dollar trade -- trading one player for another player with a similar salary -- but it might be difficult for them to actually upgrade their lineup that way. They could ask other teams to absorb some salary of a player like a Jermaine Dye or a Matt Holliday, but that would require the Reds to give up a larger package of young talent, something they're reluctant to do. No, in the end, the Reds will probably be left with the choice of busting their budget to take a chance on someone like a Dye or a Holliday, or making marginal upgrades.

The Reds are definitely looking, writes John Fay. Paul Daugherty wonders if the Reds can be bold. As Fay mentions, Josh Willingham makes sense for the Reds, but he also makes sense for a lot of other teams, as well, including the Mets.

http://insider.espn.go.com/espn/blog/index?name=olney_buster&action=login&appRedirect=http%3a%2f%2finsider.espn.go.com%2fesp n%2fblog%2findex%3fname%3dolney_buster
DeRosa is making $5.5 mil, without knowing the context of the deal, it would seem that money wasn't an issue.

bucksfan2
06-30-2009, 03:34 PM
DeRosa is making $5.5 mil, without knowing the context of the deal, it would seem that money wasn't an issue.

I heard a rumor that it was Maloney + a PTBNL with Stewart on the list. I don't think money was the issue at all.

OnBaseMachine
06-30-2009, 03:35 PM
I heard a rumor that it was Maloney + a PTBNL with Stewart on the list. I don't think money was the issue at all.

Trading Stewart for DeRosa would have been an awful deal.

Homer Bailey
06-30-2009, 03:36 PM
I heard a rumor that it was Maloney + a PTBNL with Stewart on the list. I don't think money was the issue at all.

In that case I'm very glad it didn't go through.

I can't see the Indians declining that deal, which leads me to believe that that rumor doesn't have much legs.

reds44
06-30-2009, 03:36 PM
I heard a rumor that it was Maloney + a PTBNL with Stewart on the list. I don't think money was the issue at all.
So yeah, don't think money is going to be that big of an issue. The Reds could be saying it just so people think they aren't players for a guy like Holliday.

Chip R
06-30-2009, 03:39 PM
DeRosa is making $5.5 mil, without knowing the context of the deal, it would seem that money wasn't an issue.


It'd only have been half of that.

Benihana
06-30-2009, 03:51 PM
Trading Stewart for DeRosa would have been an awful deal.

x2. Maloney I would do. Stewart, no chance.

Spitball
06-30-2009, 09:01 PM
That's his buddy talking, not a scout.

So, what have you got? Show us a first person account from a friend, foe, or whatever saying he can't play shortstop. Rodriguez is also in competition with Wood. .


What if Aybar gets hurt? Or traded (there have been runors)? The fact is, Wood has FAR more value as a SS than as a 3B or 1B. Why would the Angels diminish his value while in the minors by taking him off the position?

How in the world would it lessen his value to expose him to other positions? Is he suppose to forget how to play short? Besides, the Angels are trying to win their division and in the event of an injury to any infielder might need Wood to fill in at a given position. The name of the game is to win games at the major league level. Right now, Wood is insurance and not a trading chip. If he becomes a trading chip, there is no chance his value will be diminished by time at first or third.



If he's splattering over there at 1st, I guess it means he can't play there, either.;)

By "spattering" (no "l"), I mean a game here and there.


He's not needed at 1B -- young Kendry Morales is having himself a fine year in the bigs.

Morales is finally producing offensively, but he is not a very good defender. Besides, as I said, Wood is currwently injury insurance. Morales could get hurt.


Again, why not keep him at SS and move Aybar to 2B? It maximizes Wood's value.

Aybar is the superior defender and his future is at shortstop. Kendrick is their second baseman of the future. Current third baseman Figgins is in the last year of his contract and Wood has more value to th Angels as a third baseman.

That does not mean Wood can't play shortstop. It means the Angels have a greater need for his skills at positions besides shortstop. That is all it means and any other translation is purely conjecture.



Not arguing that the Reds have a superb option at the major leagues now, though Janish can field the position.

???


If it's been years since you've seen Wood there, it's possible he has followed the path that some thought he would -- getting bigger, filling out, losing the necessary range to be a big leaguer there. That process may be underway, and it's only going to continue.

That is just another assumption. This could be assumed of any shortstop prospect

Falls City Beer
06-30-2009, 09:13 PM
All this kvetching about upgrading the offense: you are paying attention to this team's starting pitching, right?

reds44
06-30-2009, 09:22 PM
All this kvetching about upgrading the offense: you are paying attention to this team's starting pitching, right?
You do realize we are currently being no hit, right?

Falls City Beer
06-30-2009, 09:28 PM
You do realize we are currently being no hit, right?

By the best pitcher in the NL. It happens. Votto and EdE's presence are almost certainly enough to boost the offense. Right now, the rotation is a slumping Cueto, a terrible Arroyo, a poor Owings, a slumping/mediocre Harang (with no relief-duty excuse to fall back on), and Homer freakin' Bailey.

That rotation's a recipe for a 5-17 July if there ever was one.

reds44
06-30-2009, 09:30 PM
By the best pitcher in the NL. It happens. Votto and EdE's presence are almost certainly enough to boost the offense. Right now, the rotation is a slumping Cueto, a terrible Arroyo, a poor Owings, a slumping/mediocre Harang (with no relief-duty excuse to fall back on), and Homer freakin' Bailey.

That rotation's a recipe for a 5-17 July if there ever was one.
That'll happen when you lose your best pitcher.

Falls City Beer
06-30-2009, 09:33 PM
That'll happen when you lose your best pitcher.

Sure, but that's the reality.

SirFelixCat
06-30-2009, 09:50 PM
By the best pitcher in the NL. It happens. Votto and EdE's presence are almost certainly enough to boost the offense. Right now, the rotation is a slumping Cueto, a terrible Arroyo, a poor Owings, a slumping/mediocre Harang (with no relief-duty excuse to fall back on), and Homer freakin' Bailey.

That rotation's a recipe for a 5-17 July if there ever was one.

How much you willing to put on that???

alloverjr
06-30-2009, 09:55 PM
Sure, but that's the reality.

And which is why I would be looking for pitching for the next couple of years instead of a bat. Heck, if Alonso is going to ready by the end of next year I'd dangle Votto for a decent long term pitching solution.

TheNext44
06-30-2009, 10:00 PM
I heard a rumor that it was Maloney + a PTBNL with Stewart on the list. I don't think money was the issue at all.

Assuming that this is true, sometimes in PTBNL deals, there are more than one list. Say one to be used if DeRosa gets hurt or rides the bench, one for if he plays everyday, one if DeRosa hits certain statistical milestones, and maybe even one if he leads the Reds to the post-season. I have a feeling that if Stewart was on a list, it would be one of the last ones.

Funny football story about a deal like that.

Back in the 80's the Oilers traded RB Rob Carpenter to the Giants. I believe the deal was that if he got 750 yards that season the Oilers were to get a 2nd round draft pick, less than 750, a third. He had 751 on the final day at the end of the game. With just a few seconds left, instead of the QB just kneeling, he handed it off to Carpenter, who was stopped for a three yard loss. He finished with 748 yards, and the Oilers got a 3rd round pick.

Degenerate39
06-30-2009, 10:19 PM
And which is why I would be looking for pitching for the next couple of years instead of a bat. Heck, if Alonso is going to ready by the end of next year I'd dangle Votto for a decent long term pitching solution.

I don't know about that. The Reds will have good starting pitching prospects in Wood and Leake (some others that I can't think of). If Bailey continues to improve he could very well be a good 3rd starter. Then you'll have a rotation looking something like:

Cueto
Volquez
Bailey
Wood
?

cincrazy
06-30-2009, 11:27 PM
By the best pitcher in the NL. It happens. Votto and EdE's presence are almost certainly enough to boost the offense. Right now, the rotation is a slumping Cueto, a terrible Arroyo, a poor Owings, a slumping/mediocre Harang (with no relief-duty excuse to fall back on), and Homer freakin' Bailey.

That rotation's a recipe for a 5-17 July if there ever was one.

If the Reds go 5-17 in July, I will change my name to chicrazy and become a huge Cubs fan.

TRF
07-01-2009, 12:40 PM
It's the offense. But Dusty thinks EE needs another week or two. In fact, he got the night off Tuesday DURING his rehab stint.

awe. some.

A 1-2-3-4 of Dickerson, EE, Votto, BP is pretty good. even breaks up the LH's because we know how important that is. 5-6-7-8 could be Bruce, Nix/Gomes, Hernandez/Hanigan, Janish.

That isn't a horrible offense. It isn't a horrible defense either.

OnBaseMachine
07-01-2009, 01:07 PM
Elijah Dukes has been optioned to Triple-A. If I were Walt, I would go after him. He's willing to take a walk, has big time power potential, and he just recently turned 25 years old.

CTA513
07-01-2009, 01:53 PM
Elijah Dukes has been optioned to Triple-A. If I were Walt, I would go after him. He's willing to take a walk, has big time power potential, and he just recently turned 25 years old.

They sent Dukes to AAA to instead of cutting Kearns?

:laugh:

Caveat Emperor
07-01-2009, 02:01 PM
By the best pitcher in the NL. It happens. Votto and EdE's presence are almost certainly enough to boost the offense. Right now, the rotation is a slumping Cueto, a terrible Arroyo, a poor Owings, a slumping/mediocre Harang (with no relief-duty excuse to fall back on), and Homer freakin' Bailey.

Slumps happen, even for pitchers. Overreacting when one does is usually a sign of a badly run front office.

Unless you think that Cueto's talent has suddenly deserted him, you don't trade for someone to fill his spot in the rotation. Ditto Harang. Owings is what Owings is -- a more than competent 5th starter. Bailey is a placeholder until Volquez gets right.

I'm not saying ignore the starting pitching -- but I think the odds are a lot longer on finding a better starting pitcher than they already have than the odds are of finding a better bat at 3b, lf or ss than they already have.

Ltlabner
07-01-2009, 02:49 PM
By the best pitcher in the NL. It happens. Votto and EdE's presence are almost certainly enough to boost the offense. Right now, the rotation is a slumping Cueto, a terrible Arroyo, a poor Owings, a slumping/mediocre Harang (with no relief-duty excuse to fall back on), and Homer freakin' Bailey.

That rotation's a recipe for a 5-17 July if there ever was one.

Oh gosh...I guess we ought to just release the entire starting rotation and start over again. Let's just forfeit the rest of the season because if they pitch for the Reds they must be junk.

I mean, they all suck so bad and are awful pitchers...or at least that's what I've been hearing non-stop in your posts.

It's tiresome. Really.

The starting rotation has it's issues no doubt. It's not perfect, nor do I pretend that it is. But your constant harping on the subject misses the mark as to what the Reds priority problems are right now.

Benihana
07-01-2009, 02:53 PM
Oh gosh...I guess we ought to just release the entire starting rotation and start over again. Let's just forfeit the rest of the season because if they pitch for the Reds they must be junk.

I mean, they all suck so bad and are awful pitchers...or at least that's what I've been hearing non-stop in your posts.

Agreed. FCB is treading slowly towards Aronchis territory.

flyer85
07-01-2009, 02:57 PM
Elijah Dukes has been optioned to Triple-A. If I were Walt, I would go after him. He's willing to take a walk, has big time power potential, and he just recently turned 25 years old.
and don't forget he seems to have a bit of misogyny. :eek:

Falls City Beer
07-01-2009, 02:58 PM
Agreed. FCB is treading slowly towards Aronchis territory.

Solid retort. I don't get it. A majority of the board rages on 1/9 of the starting lineup in virtually every thread, but my pointing out the obvious problems with this rotation have become tiresome (despite their unacknowledged truth).

traderumor
07-01-2009, 03:04 PM
I have to share FCB's concerns with the rotation. Harang is no longer reliable, Cueto has been giving up dingers again, Arroyo is in a funk and has carpal tunnel, Owings is wild as a goose, and Bailey is getting his final tryout for the Reds. Volquez may not pitch again this season, and if he does, will he be effective? The Reds suddenly seem to be more desperate for a league average arm than they are a bat right now, esp. since most of the problem with the O is getting the right people on the field consistently.

Ltlabner
07-01-2009, 03:04 PM
A majority of the board rages on 1/9 of the starting lineup in virtually every thread, but my pointing out the obvious problems with this rotation have become tiresome (despite their unacknowledged truth).

So your constant pounding on the staff is just your obtuse way of providing counter balance to your perception that a majority of the board rages on the linup?

And no, you are not spouting the unacknowledged "truth".

edabbs44
07-01-2009, 03:05 PM
Solid retort. I don't get it. A majority of the board rages on 1/9 of the starting lineup in virtually every thread, but my pointing out the obvious problems with this rotation have become tiresome (despite their unacknowledged truth).

Don't you see what you just did? You just lit the Willy T fuse.

Nice work.

flyer85
07-01-2009, 03:06 PM
Reds starting rotation may have concerns ... so do 25 or so other teams around the league. The Reds are better of than most of them.

OnBaseMachine
07-01-2009, 03:07 PM
Aaron Harang is on pace to throw 200+ innings, has a 113 ERA+, and 21 BB/80 K ratio. He still looks like the same old reliable Aaron Harang to me.

Falls City Beer
07-01-2009, 03:07 PM
And no, you are not spouting the unacknowledged "truth".

Look, when no one except for traderumor, jojo, Redleg Jake and I have expressed serious reservations about the rotation, I'd say it's reasonably unacknowledged.

Some have said, yeah, it's dinged up, or, yeah, it's not perfect. I and others are saying, no, it's a big, big problem. Central problem going forward (not just this season, either).

Falls City Beer
07-01-2009, 03:09 PM
Reds starting rotation may have concerns ... so do 25 or so other teams around the league. The Reds are better of than most of them.

The Reds starting rotation owes this bullpen a case of Dom.

traderumor
07-01-2009, 03:09 PM
Reds starting rotation may have concerns ... so do 25 or so other teams around the league. The Reds are better of than most of them.Long term, perhaps. Short term, we sure could use a boost. Right now, the rotation is not real thrilling and just gave up 6 runs to the Dbacks. Our "ace" got lit up for 9 runs by the Indians and has been scuffling for more outings than he has been an "ace." Cueto has blown a 5-0 and 5-1 lead. Our best start in the last two weeks was 6 plus out of Owings Sunday. I'm not real sure I'm not trying to find some help there if I have any designs on making up ground in a winnable division. I'm not seeing Matt Holliday or any of the other names bandied around as an answer to the questions we have in the short term.

nate
07-01-2009, 03:17 PM
Look, when no one except for traderumor, jojo, Redleg Jake and I have expressed serious reservations about the rotation, I'd say it's reasonably unacknowledged.

I've said the pitching is average pretty much since the end of last season.


Some have said, yeah, it's dinged up, or, yeah, it's not perfect. I and others are saying, no, it's a big, big problem. Central problem going forward (not just this season, either).

One gets the feeling from reading your posts that we're trotting out Paul Wilson, Eric Milton and Elizardo Ramirez as our "best 3."

TRF
07-01-2009, 03:18 PM
The Reds starting rotation owes this bullpen a case of Dom.

The Reds offense owes this starting rotation new cars.

RedsManRick
07-01-2009, 03:18 PM
Reds starters have a 4.48 ERA in one of the most offense friendly parks in the game. Sure, I'd love for us to have a Santana, Halladay, or Lincecum to bank on, but I'd take our rotation over at least 20 others in the game right now. Meanwhile, our offense has the 3rd worst park adjusted OPS in the baseball, just a hair behind the Cubs and A's.

Harang is doing almost exactly what he's always done, rarely dominate but keep us in pretty much every game he pitches. Johnny Cueto has an ERA under 3.00, functionally swapping roles with Volquez of last year. Micah Owings is a #5 starter with an ERA of 4.63 -- about 3 runs less than Reds got from the #5 spot last year and comparable to an average 3/4 starter. Bailey and Maloney have both struggled, but they're not going to be in the rotation when Volquez returns.

I know I'm hardly an optimist, I think some people need to get realistic about their expectations. No sane person saw this team as a playoff favorite when the season began. We knew that if we had some luck and some people over performed, we could be in the race. Instead, we've had some bad luck and mixed performances at best. And yet we're in 3rd place, a game under .500 and 4 games out.

We'll need to improve both our pitching and our offense -- or one of them substantially -- if we're going to make the playoffs. But there's a lot more room for improvement on the offense than in the pitching staff.

traderumor
07-01-2009, 03:35 PM
Reds starters have a 4.48 ERA in one of the most offense friendly parks in the game. Sure, I'd love for us to have a Santana, Halladay, or Lincecum to bank on, but I'd take our rotation over at least 20 others in the game right now. Meanwhile, our offense has the 3rd worst park adjusted OPS in the baseball, just a hair behind the Cubs and A's.
The concern isn't the lack of an ace, nor do I see that argued, so that is your strawman. My concern is that the rotation is trending toward shorter stints due to bad outings or big innings, taxing the bullpen more and more. Aaron Harang is in year 2 of decline, and it is often very ugly. I love Harang, he is the one starting pitcher that has been worth watching in many recent seasons. I just have faced the reality that he has likely pitched his best baseball in the game.

Arroyo is a prime candidate to replace cheaply, but his recent slump and well-publicized carpal tunnel makes him hard to move right now. Hopefully, Cueto will adjust and get back to keeping the ball in the park.

I think Volquez is if, not when he comes back, so I certainly wouldn't hesitate to try to steal someone from an also ran looking to dump a little salary for little in return. That fact has me the most worried about the rotation's ability to do their job.

Falls City Beer
07-01-2009, 03:46 PM
Reds starters have a 4.48 ERA in one of the most offense friendly parks in the game. Sure, I'd love for us to have a Santana, Halladay, or Lincecum to bank on, but I'd take our rotation over at least 20 others in the game right now. Meanwhile, our offense has the 3rd worst park adjusted OPS in the baseball, just a hair behind the Cubs and A's.

Harang is doing almost exactly what he's always done, rarely dominate but keep us in pretty much every game he pitches. Johnny Cueto has an ERA under 3.00, functionally swapping roles with Volquez of last year. Micah Owings is a #5 starter with an ERA of 4.63 -- about 3 runs less than Reds got from the #5 spot last year and comparable to an average 3/4 starter. Bailey and Maloney have both struggled, but they're not going to be in the rotation when Volquez returns.

I know I'm hardly an optimist, I think some people need to get realistic about their expectations. No sane person saw this team as a playoff favorite when the season began. We knew that if we had some luck and some people over performed, we could be in the race. Instead, we've had some bad luck and mixed performances at best. And yet we're in 3rd place, a game under .500 and 4 games out.

We'll need to improve both our pitching and our offense -- or one of them substantially -- if we're going to make the playoffs. But there's a lot more room for improvement on the offense than in the pitching staff.

I agree with the last paragraph. And my concerns aren't limited to this season, vis the rotation. Will Volquez return to perform as his 2008 self? Who at this point would with any sanity guarantee Arroyo a rotation spot for 2010? What is Owings? Will Bailey ever amount to anything?

The foundation of this rotation is Cueto. That's a great foundation, it's hard to argue that. But the above questions should keep any GM up at night.

Falls City Beer
07-01-2009, 03:50 PM
The Reds offense owes this starting rotation new cars.

That point, though, has been so clearly established as to not need much refining.

Folks have posited the rotation as this organization's anchor; I'd call it its quicksand.

Benihana
07-01-2009, 03:56 PM
Our "ace" got lit up for 9 runs by the Indians and has been scuffling for more outings than he has been an "ace." Cueto has blown a 5-0 and 5-1 lead. Our best start in the last two weeks was 6 plus out of Owings Sunday. I'm not real sure I'm not trying to find some help there if I have any designs on making up ground in a winnable division. I'm not seeing Matt Holliday or any of the other names bandied around as an answer to the questions we have in the short term.

Your last two posts have been ridiculous.

Until this weekend, Johnny Cueto was leading the National League in ERA. After getting shelled in his last outing, his ERA is still 2.86. To say that "he has been scuffling for more outings than he has been an ace" shows that you have no fundamental understanding of what an "ace" truly is.

If we did go out and acquire a league average arm as you suggest, you and FCB would be crying foul every time they gave up >3 ER, which would by definition happen more than 50% of the time. Aaron Harang is better than a league average arm by a mile and yet the two of you have called him "not reliable" and "mediocre." Micah Owings is considerably better than the league average #5 starter, yet he is classified as "poor" and "wild as a goose." Bronson Arroyo has been a league average starter (or slightly better) for the last three years, and admittedly has been below average this season. Edinson Volquez would be the most sought after right arm in baseball if he went on the trade block today, so I think it's nice to have him in the rotation (not to mention the numbers he put up last season.)

I have stated many times there are a lot of holes on this club (that don't start or finish with Willy T), and I expect more out of the front office. While I'm by no means a rainbows and sunshine optimist with rose-colored glasses, I've grown very tired of the constant pessimism that is on display in this thread and many others, particularly from FCB (and now you.)

TRF
07-01-2009, 04:03 PM
That point, though, has been so clearly established as to not need much refining.

Folks have posited the rotation as this organization's anchor; I'd call it its quicksand.

And that is where most disagree.

I think you are spot on about Arroyo. I think he's about done. Possibly for the year, maybe in a career spiral.

I think you are completely wrong about Owings. He's a #5 pitching like a #3. He 's likely one of the top 5 #5's in baseball, his bat is a bonus.

So that leaves the solid Harang, the ace Cueto (though he has had a couple of rough outings... the ASB can't get here soon enough.) and the Volquez/Bailey/Maloney trio. Bailey needs to step up. Maloney now should have an idea of what doesn't work for him at the major league level.

But really, it's the offense. When you have three position posting season OPS lines of .660(SS), .650(3B) and .606 (CF), then it's the offense. Put league average numbers in there, and the Reds have a 5 game lead in the central.

traderumor
07-01-2009, 04:37 PM
Your last two posts have been ridiculous.

Until this weekend, Johnny Cueto was leading the National League in ERA. After getting shelled in his last outing, his ERA is still 2.86. To say that "he has been scuffling for more outings than he has been an ace" shows that you have no fundamental understanding of what an "ace" truly is.

If we did go out and acquire a league average arm as you suggest, you and FCB would be crying foul every time they gave up >3 ER, which would by definition happen more than 50% of the time. Aaron Harang is better than a league average arm by a mile and yet the two of you have called him "not reliable" and "mediocre." Micah Owings is considerably better than the league average #5 starter, yet he is classified as "poor" and "wild as a goose." Bronson Arroyo has been a league average starter (or slightly better) for the last three years, and admittedly has been below average this season. Edinson Volquez would be the most sought after right arm in baseball if he went on the trade block today, so I think it's nice to have him in the rotation (not to mention the numbers he put up last season.)

I have stated many times there are a lot of holes on this club (that don't start or finish with Willy T), and I expect more out of the front office. While I'm by no means a rainbows and sunshine optimist with rose-colored glasses, I've grown very tired of the constant pessimism that is on display in this thread and many others, particularly from FCB (and now you.)Well, first of all, I think you are going to have a hard time supporting an argument that I have been all about bashing the rotation. I am joining this campaign later than Sarah Palin. So that is the first mistake in your "ridiculous" assessment.

Your second mistake is that Harang is the "ace" I was referring to. That is his role on the team. I will not argue that he is our ace, which is why I used quotation marks. Cueto is going to have to do more than pitch good for a dozen starts to make "ace" status for anybody. And I would never use "leading the league in ERA" after two months of the season as an argument in any discussion that I wanted to be taken seriously.

This rotation could use another reliable arm and should consider taking offers for Harang and Arroyo. That is really all I am saying.

RedsManRick
07-01-2009, 05:23 PM
The idea that Harang is in regress is simply not well founded. His struggles last season have been discussed ad nauseum and in any event were not likely attributable predominantly to a permant regress in skill, but rather a mechanical or physical issue which has since been corrected.

His current K/9 and HR/9 are right at his career average. His velocity is within 1 mph of his 2005-2007 levels. His current BB/9 would be a career best. His batted ball stats are all roughly in line with his career norms except for one, his BABIP which sits at .342. His 3.87 FIP fits in nicely with his 2005-2007 stretch (3.67, 3.68, 3.71) -- certainly into last year's 4.79. Heck, even his current 3.95 era is close to his 2005-2007 level (3.83, 3.76, 3.73).

2009 Harang is functionally the exact same pitcher as 2005-2007 Harang. The idea that he's suddenly unreliable and trending downwards is a function of the limits of human perception and the way in which we map what we see to the story we've created for it and not the other way around.

I understand that people have legitimate concerns about our rotation. So do I. But we need to be realistic about our expectations. What we have right now, even with all its warts, is pretty decent -- at minimum, it certainly doesn't deserve the bulk of attention as we look to find ways to improve the team this year.

alexad
07-01-2009, 05:27 PM
I think we need to all relax and let Walt work his magic. He tried to get someone and was shot down. The man is working for the best trade, not just to make a trade. Everyone is getting excited because there have been a few trades made. Again relax Walt will make it all work out for the best.

OnBaseMachine
07-01-2009, 05:30 PM
I think we need to all relax and let Walt work his magic. He tried to get someone and was shot down. The man is working for the best trade, not just to make a trade. Everyone is getting excited because there have been a few trades made. Again relax Walt will make it all work out for the best.

Walt doesn't have any magic anymore. If he did, we wouldn't have opened the season with Jerry Hairston Jr. as our left fielder and Willy Taveras as our center fielder.

traderumor
07-01-2009, 05:38 PM
The idea that Harang is in regress is simply not well founded. His struggles last season have been discussed ad nauseum and in any event were not likely attributable predominantly to a permant regress in skill, but rather a mechanical or physical issue which has since been corrected.

His current K/9 and HR/9 are right at his career average. His velocity is within 1 mph of his 2005-2007 levels. His current BB/9 would be a career best. His batted ball stats are all roughly in line with his career norms except for one, his BABIP which sits at .342. His 3.87 FIP fits in nicely with his 2005-2007 stretch (3.67, 3.68, 3.71) -- certainly into last year's 4.79. Heck, even his current 3.95 era is close to his 2005-2007 level (3.83, 3.76, 3.73).

2009 Harang is functionally the exact same pitcher as 2005-2007 Harang. The idea that he's suddenly unreliable and trending downwards is a function of the limits of human perception and the way in which we map what we see to the story we've created for it and not the other way around.

I understand that people have legitimate concerns about our rotation. So do I. But we need to be realistic about our expectations. What we have right now, even with all its warts, is pretty decent -- at minimum, it certainly doesn't deserve the bulk of attention as we look to find ways to improve the team this year.His WHIP is 1.38 last year, 1.39 this year, 1.14 in 2007, 1.27 in 2005-2006. Last year, his slugging against was over .500, he is getting hit a little less hard this year at .457. 2005-2007 slg. against was .432, .433, and .400. That isn't human perception nor do I see any noticeable correction, as you assert.

What we have is a pitcher putting more men on base and getting hit harder as he gets older and following three years of being a workhorse. That also so happens to be consistent with this human's perception. Harang had a career year in 2007 after two solid years in 2005-2006. Now, he is sometimes an above average pitcher, but less frequently than is currently needed. I think my concerns about his spot in the rotation are supportable.

BTW, all presumption that you speak for "we" aside, there is no problem with my expectations.

bucksfan2
07-01-2009, 05:41 PM
Walt doesn't have any magic anymore. If he did, we wouldn't have opened the season with Jerry Hairston Jr. as our left fielder and Willy Taveras as our center fielder.

Seriously??? For all the overall organizational improvement Walt has lost his magic because of two stop gap players? :thumbdown

nate
07-01-2009, 05:42 PM
The idea that he's suddenly unreliable and trending downwards is a function of the limits of human perception and the way in which we map what we see to the story we've created for it and not the other way around.

A thought so true the late, great, Billy Mays would've been rendered mute.

OnBaseMachine
07-01-2009, 05:44 PM
The idea that Harang is in regress is simply not well founded. His struggles last season have been discussed ad nauseum and in any event were not likely attributable predominantly to a permant regress in skill, but rather a mechanical or physical issue which has since been corrected.

His current K/9 and HR/9 are right at his career average. His velocity is within 1 mph of his 2005-2007 levels. His current BB/9 would be a career best. His batted ball stats are all roughly in line with his career norms except for one, his BABIP which sits at .342. His 3.87 FIP fits in nicely with his 2005-2007 stretch (3.67, 3.68, 3.71) -- certainly into last year's 4.79. Heck, even his current 3.95 era is close to his 2005-2007 level (3.83, 3.76, 3.73).

2009 Harang is functionally the exact same pitcher as 2005-2007 Harang. The idea that he's suddenly unreliable and trending downwards is a function of the limits of human perception and the way in which we map what we see to the story we've created for it and not the other way around.

I understand that people have legitimate concerns about our rotation. So do I. But we need to be realistic about our expectations. What we have right now, even with all its warts, is pretty decent -- at minimum, it certainly doesn't deserve the bulk of attention as we look to find ways to improve the team this year.

Excellent post.

traderumor
07-01-2009, 05:44 PM
A thought so true the late, great, Billy Mays would've been rendered mute.Yea, too bad the facts don't support the conclusion in this case. Some things sound so smart they have to be right, eh?

OnBaseMachine
07-01-2009, 05:47 PM
Seriously??? For all the overall organizational improvement Walt has lost his magic because of two stop gap players? :thumbdown

Honestly, I don't see where Walt has done much to improve the organization. All the key players on the roster were acquired by previous GM's. I just haven't been impressed with Walt Jocketty. This guy was hyped as one of the best GM's in baseball but I haven't seen it.

Ltlabner
07-01-2009, 05:50 PM
Some have said, yeah, it's dinged up, or, yeah, it's not perfect. I and others are saying, no, it's a big, big problem. Central problem going forward (not just this season, either).

Now you are being totally dishonest.

Because you act as if every other rotation in baseball is manned by 5 Cy Youngs and our rotation is nothing but chaff. For every-bit as much as some folks have over-estimated this rotation you've underestimated it in intellectually lazy ways. You even admit that you are banging on the pitching to offset the banging on the offense. So right there you've shown your hand and it isn't an objective one.

Yes, this rotation is flawed, and obvious portions of it are struggling. And yes, if we can add an arm that would be great.

But you've failed to even recognize that this rotation is light years ahead of the days of old, while pretending that, for example, the Cards are trotting out a rotation chock full of studs. Funny that Carpenter getting beaten like a rented mule last night isn't cause for you to run around in a panic for your beloved Red Birds. But if Cueto "falls apart" down to where he is (which by my quick calculation would be the 2nd best arm on the Cards staff) it's over, turn out the lights, he sucks. Seems like whoever we face has a "real MLB rotation" but ours is just laughable.

Listen, I think your concerns about the rotation have some legitimacy to them. And I understand that you get off on getting people worked up. But you've slagged on the Reds staff so incessantly and for so long that frankly you're the poster who cried wolf on this subject.

I know that sounds like an attack, and I honestly don't mean it to be. But your pit bull attacks on the rotation make it hard to hear your message.

Ltlabner
07-01-2009, 05:53 PM
Reds starters have a 4.48 ERA in one of the most offense friendly parks in the game. Sure, I'd love for us to have a Santana, Halladay, or Lincecum to bank on, but I'd take our rotation over at least 20 others in the game right now. Meanwhile, our offense has the 3rd worst park adjusted OPS in the baseball, just a hair behind the Cubs and A's.
.

And here we have the heart of the matter. Improvements on the rotation/pen can and should be made, but unless you land 4 more Lincecum's you're not going to make as much improvement as you would by addressing this offense.

jojo
07-01-2009, 06:15 PM
His WHIP is 1.38 last year, 1.39 this year, 1.14 in 2007, 1.27 in 2005-2006. Last year, his slugging against was over .500, he is getting hit a little less hard this year at .457. 2005-2007 slg. against was .432, .433, and .400. That isn't human perception nor do I see any noticeable correction, as you assert.

What we have is a pitcher putting more men on base and getting hit harder as he gets older and following three years of being a workhorse. That also so happens to be consistent with this human's perception. Harang had a career year in 2007 after two solid years in 2005-2006. Now, he is sometimes an above average pitcher, but less frequently than is currently needed. I think my concerns about his spot in the rotation are supportable.

BTW, all presumption that you speak for "we" aside, there is no problem with my expectations.

What we have is a starting pitcher that has above average Krates and BB rates. His FIP sits at 3.87 and is pushing about half a run lower than the major league average for starting pitchers.

Seriously, RMR split an arrow with his post....

nate
07-01-2009, 06:24 PM
Yea, too bad the facts don't support the conclusion in this case. Some things sound so smart they have to be right, eh?

Rude.

Boss-Hog
07-01-2009, 06:27 PM
I've enjoyed reading this discussion, but it needs to be kept civil - I don't want to see anymore personal shots taken at users who disagree with you. That goes for both "sides" of this debate.

RedsManRick
07-01-2009, 07:32 PM
His WHIP is 1.38 last year, 1.39 this year, 1.14 in 2007, 1.27 in 2005-2006. Last year, his slugging against was over .500, he is getting hit a little less hard this year at .457. 2005-2007 slg. against was .432, .433, and .400. That isn't human perception nor do I see any noticeable correction, as you assert.

What we have is a pitcher putting more men on base and getting hit harder as he gets older and following three years of being a workhorse. That also so happens to be consistent with this human's perception. Harang had a career year in 2007 after two solid years in 2005-2006. Now, he is sometimes an above average pitcher, but less frequently than is currently needed. I think my concerns about his spot in the rotation are supportable.

BTW, all presumption that you speak for "we" aside, there is no problem with my expectations.

Both his WHIP and SLG can be explained by the increased hit rate represented by his inflated BABIP relative to his types. The SLG of a single is 1.000. Extra duck snorts will show up in both places. And I fail to see how 2007 was substantively better than 2005-06. Heck 2006 and 2007 were virtually identical save for his hit rate, which is in large part of a function of his defense and luck. And other than his hit rate this year, I fail to see how he's substantively worse. He's not allowing more runs and while his hits are up, that's not due to a regression in the quality of his stuff, worse command, etc.

Unless you have some way to show that the distriubtion of the quality of his starts has changed (despite no change in his aggregate performance), I simply don't see the evidence you're prodiving to support the claim that he's worse than during 2005-07. The only difference is an inflated hit rate that is out line with his underlying peripherals and due for a regression even if he were to pitch exactly the same way as he has to date.

HokieRed
07-01-2009, 08:09 PM
Agree on the excellence of RMR's post. I'll add that this is why Homer is maybe the key at this point. Biggest possible upgrade I can see--and I emphasize "possible"--is for Homer to emerge and displace Arroyo. The rotation we want down the stretch is Cueto, Volquez, Bailey, Harang, and Owings.

Falls City Beer
07-01-2009, 08:26 PM
Honestly, I don't see where Walt has done much to improve the organization. All the key players on the roster were acquired by previous GM's. I just haven't been impressed with Walt Jocketty. This guy was hyped as one of the best GM's in baseball but I haven't seen it.

First, this isn't true, but you realize that the lion's share of the truly best players on this team were acquired when Jim Bowden (Kullman/Maddox) was GM (Cueto, EdE, Votto, Harang). The two GMs since then have provided Bruce and a gimpy Volquez, respectively. That's six core talents provided by past GMs; their other acquisitions are either millstones (Arroyo) or incidental (Hairston).

So I take it you want to bring back Bowden?

Mario-Rijo
07-01-2009, 08:52 PM
First, this isn't true, but you realize that the lion's share of the truly best players on this team were acquired when Jim Bowden (Kullman/Maddox) was GM (Cueto, EdE, Votto, Harang). The two GMs since then have provided Bruce and a gimpy Volquez, respectively. That's six core talents provided by past GMs; their other acquisitions are either millstones (Arroyo) or incidental (Hairston).

So I take it you want to bring back Bowden?

A gimpy Volquez but not a gimpy EE? Harang has nothing to do with Bowden. And your forgetting many others when discussing best players on the team like Phillips, Cordero, Hanigan etc.

Alright Hanigan might be a bit of a stretch but Phillips and Cordero definitely apply.

HokieRed
07-01-2009, 08:57 PM
I'm fairly certain that Cueto was signed during O'Brien's tenure, not Bowden's.

Falls City Beer
07-01-2009, 09:04 PM
A gimpy Volquez but not a gimpy EE? Harang has nothing to do with Bowden. And your forgetting many others when discussing best players on the team like Phillips, Cordero, Hanigan etc.

I forgot Phillips. Hanigan was a Bowden era draft. Cordero was a massive waste of funds and hardly some ingenious pick.

jojo
07-01-2009, 09:05 PM
Cueto was signed in 2004. Bowden was fired in 2003.

OnBaseMachine
07-01-2009, 09:06 PM
I'm fairly certain that Cueto was signed during O'Brien's tenure, not Bowden's.

Correct. Cueto signed in March of 2004.

Falls City Beer
07-01-2009, 09:07 PM
Cueto was signed in 2004. Bowden was fired in 2003.

Signed by Bowden's scouting infrastructure, most specifically Almaraz. But sure, if you want to chalk that up to the immortal Dan O'Brien. Anybody want him back?

Mario-Rijo
07-01-2009, 09:08 PM
I forgot Phillips. Hanigan was a Bowden era draft. Cordero was a massive waste of funds and hardly some ingenious pick.

Cordero is getting the job done at the end of games, how much is that worth? Despite the fact he may not have been worth quite what he got and despite the fact the Reds may have been better served spending that money elsewhere, we needed a closer then would now one now and probably for the next year or 2 as well. He's still a very good player on this team.

And not that you'll ask but yes I'd take Krivsky back in a heartbeat, but I'm sure you knew that.

Falls City Beer
07-01-2009, 09:10 PM
Cordero is getting the job done at the end of games, how much is that worth? Despite the fact he may not have been worth quite what he got and despite the fact the Reds may have been better served spending that money elsewhere, we needed a closer then would now one now and probably for the next year or 2 as well. He's still a very good player on this team.

With payroll a major factor, I can't believe Castellini signed off on that deal. I do blame him for that deal as much as Krivsky. Either way, it was completely braindead of them.

backbencher
07-01-2009, 09:27 PM
With payroll a major factor, I can't believe Castellini signed off on that deal. I do blame him for that deal as much as Krivsky. Either way, it was completely braindead of them.

So the rotation owes the bullpen a case of Dom, but acquiring Cordero is "braindead." Pretty narrow success window that you have defined, there.

Falls City Beer
07-01-2009, 09:30 PM
So the rotation owes the bullpen a case of Dom, but acquiring Cordero is "braindead." Pretty narrow success window that you have defined, there.

Right. Because Rhodes couldn't have done what Cordero's done for about $10 million a season less.

backbencher
07-01-2009, 09:53 PM
Right. Because Rhodes couldn't have done what Cordero's done for about $10 million a season less.

Revisionism. Cordero's contract was a pure market-value contract for 2008 -- remember, the Brewere were furious that Cordero jilted them for something like $500,00 over four years.

If the point is that the Reds could have found a scrap-heap arm or two and installed it as the 2008 closer, and then repeated in 2009 - well, maybe. But it wouldn't have been Rhodes, who had TJ surgery in 2007 and wasn't a viable closer candidate in 2008. And your 2009 closer likely would have been Jared Burton. In other words, early season disaster.

jojo
07-01-2009, 10:28 PM
Signed by Bowden's scouting infrastructure, most specifically Almaraz. But sure, if you want to chalk that up to the immortal Dan O'Brien. Anybody want him back?

While it's true that Almaraz was in the Reds organization during Bowden's tenure (he actually predates Bowden BTW), O'brien spent the fall of '03 giving the Reds scouting department an enema.

A significant part of the restructuring was reversing Bowden's decision to remove Almaraz from the Dominican sphere (Bowden forced Almaraz to get Bowden's coffee as an "assis to the GM" during Bowden's final two seasons). O'Brien promptly made Almaraz director of international scouting where he could again use his experience and talent to its fullest (Dean Taylor became director of professional scouting and Terry Reynolds become director of amatuer scouting to fill out O'Brien's new scouting triumphant).

Does O'brien get the credit for Cueto? I guess it could be debatable. But Bowden's claim is much more specious.

Falls City Beer
07-01-2009, 10:43 PM
While it's true that Almaraz was in the Reds organization during Bowden's tenure (he actually predates Bowden BTW), O'brien spent the fall of '03 giving the Reds scouting department an enema.

A significant part of the restructuring was reversing Bowden's decision to remove Almaraz from the Dominican sphere (Bowden forced Almaraz to get Bowden's coffee as an "assis to the GM" during Bowden's final two seasons). O'Brien promptly made Almaraz director of international scouting where he could again use his experience and talent to its fullest (Dean Taylor became director of professional scouting and Terry Reynolds become director of amatuer scouting to fill out O'Brien's new scouting triumphant).

Does O'brien get the credit for Cueto? I guess it could be debatable. But Bowden's claim is much more specious.

Regardless, the larger point is that it's not as though the past three/four GMs have demonstrated within an 18 month span as GM the ability to add tremendous impact to the roster. Which was OBM's claim, that because Jocketty hadn't produced "more" than what the others had (I think he has, especially given the drafts he's overseen), that somehow he's less worthy than Bowden, O'Brien, Maddox/Kullman, and Krivsky. There's no evidence at all to support that argument.

Falls City Beer
07-01-2009, 10:49 PM
Now you are being totally dishonest.


I'd say it's no more or less honest than those claiming I'm clamoring for 5 Cy Youngs in the rotation. I'd say a rotation @ 4.48 in the weakest offensive division in baseball is pretty much Vanilla Central.

Caveat Emperor
07-01-2009, 11:23 PM
I'd say it's no more or less honest than those claiming I'm clamoring for 5 Cy Youngs in the rotation. I'd say a rotation @ 4.48 in the weakest offensive division in baseball is pretty much Vanilla Central.

I could point out that the Brewers are leading the NL Central sporting 3 starters with ERAs north of 4.80, but I think you're pretty locked into your position at this point.

Crap all over guys like Micah Owings all you want, but he's sporting a better ERA than 3/5 of the Brewer's rotation.

sonny
07-01-2009, 11:35 PM
Sooooooooooooo,

The Reds are looking for a right handed bat, eh?

reds44
07-01-2009, 11:41 PM
I don't get why he has to be right handed at this point.

We have Votto as our best hitter, and then Phillips is our 2nd best hitter. It's not exactly the Griffey/Dunn days anymore.

Ltlabner
07-02-2009, 07:36 AM
I'd say it's no more or less honest than those claiming I'm clamoring for 5 Cy Youngs in the rotation. I'd say a rotation @ 4.48 in the weakest offensive division in baseball is pretty much Vanilla Central.

Interesting how you are now, apparently, trying to tweak your argument. All along it's been that the Reds staff, especially the starters, are pure unadulterated crap. Now....now, it's that they are just vanilla.

Meanwhile the Reds are at the bottom of nearly any offensive category you can imagine. So yea, the Reds would have to have a starting rotation of 5 total studs if they are going to refuse to score runs but still try to win baseball games. Whether you type the words or not, that is the nexus of your argument.

icehole3
07-02-2009, 07:40 AM
I don't get why he has to be right handed at this point.

We have Votto as our best hitter, and then Phillips is our 2nd best hitter. It's not exactly the Griffey/Dunn days anymore.

2 words Jay Bruce

edabbs44
07-02-2009, 08:52 AM
Revisionism. Cordero's contract was a pure market-value contract for 2008 -- remember, the Brewere were furious that Cordero jilted them for something like $500,00 over four years.

That's like being fine with buying a house in Florida at the height of the market in 2005 for $500k and trying to justify the purchase now when it is worth $250k.

Look at what KRod signed for last offseason. The signing was ill advised.

Caveat Emperor
07-02-2009, 09:07 AM
That's like being fine with buying a house in Florida at the height of the market in 2005 for $500k and trying to justify the purchase now when it is worth $250k.

Look at what KRod signed for last offseason. The signing was ill advised.

Your analogy depends, naturally, on whether you bought your house in Florida as an investment property (an ill-advised move at the height of the market) or because you needed a place to live.

In the case of Cordero, the Reds needed a place to live and paid market price to get such a place.

Reasonable minds can disagree about whether or not they should've bought or rented -- but it's worth noting that of the people most touted as being able to handle closing duties on this club over the last few years, one is currently in AAA (Burton), one is currently in Milwaukee (Coffey), and another people keep wanting to ride out on rails every season (Weathers).

edabbs44
07-02-2009, 09:19 AM
Your analogy depends, naturally, on whether you bought your house in Florida as an investment property (an ill-advised move at the height of the market) or because you needed a place to live.

In the case of Cordero, the Reds needed a place to live and paid market price to get such a place.

While true, the Reds should have been really just shopping for a roof over their heads and not the most expensive house in the country.


Reasonable minds can disagree about whether or not they should've bought or rented -- but it's worth noting that of the people most touted as being able to handle closing duties on this club over the last few years, one is currently in AAA (Burton), one is currently in Milwaukee (Coffey), and another people keep wanting to ride out on rails every season (Weathers).

I agree with that sentiment, but it still doesn't justify the fact that they paid that abnormal sum for a closer while the rest of the team was flawed.

But this is way off topic...bottom line is the club needs help in many areas. They really need to clean out some of the glut and focus on the future. If you aren't a part of the future, then move along.

jojo
07-02-2009, 09:20 AM
Your analogy depends, naturally, on whether you bought your house in Florida as an investment property (an ill-advised move at the height of the market) or because you needed a place to live.

In the case of Cordero, the Reds needed a place to live and paid market price to get such a place.

Reasonable minds can disagree about whether or not they should've bought or rented -- but it's worth noting that of the people most touted as being able to handle closing duties on this club over the last few years, one is currently in AAA (Burton), one is currently in Milwaukee (Coffey), and another people keep wanting to ride out on rails every season (Weathers).

To me the argument about Cordero is that the Reds should've bought in a different neighborhood because they didn't have to pay what they did for a good place to live.

traderumor
07-02-2009, 10:31 AM
Both his WHIP and SLG can be explained by the increased hit rate represented by his inflated BABIP relative to his types. The SLG of a single is 1.000. Extra duck snorts will show up in both places. And I fail to see how 2007 was substantively better than 2005-06. Heck 2006 and 2007 were virtually identical save for his hit rate, which is in large part of a function of his defense and luck. And other than his hit rate this year, I fail to see how he's substantively worse. He's not allowing more runs and while his hits are up, that's not due to a regression in the quality of his stuff, worse command, etc.

Unless you have some way to show that the distriubtion of the quality of his starts has changed (despite no change in his aggregate performance), I simply don't see the evidence you're prodiving to support the claim that he's worse than during 2005-07. The only difference is an inflated hit rate that is out line with his underlying peripherals and due for a regression even if he were to pitch exactly the same way as he has to date.I'll let my record stand as is. If other teams share your view, that would certainly help the return if we cashed him in before he falls off the cliff. But that is not the Reds mojo. He will most likely rot on the vine.

Falls City Beer
07-02-2009, 10:44 AM
Interesting how you are now, apparently, trying to tweak your argument. All along it's been that the Reds staff, especially the starters, are pure unadulterated crap. Now....now, it's that they are just vanilla.

Meanwhile the Reds are at the bottom of nearly any offensive category you can imagine. So yea, the Reds would have to have a starting rotation of 5 total studs if they are going to refuse to score runs but still try to win baseball games. Whether you type the words or not, that is the nexus of your argument.

This has *never* been my argument. I've argued that Cueto has been excellent. Volquez has a great ceiling, but of course he's hurt. The other three are either middling (Harang/Owings) or awful (Arroyo). The depth is ridiculously bad (Maloney/Bailey).

I've also acknowledged that the offense is not particularly good (though I do think it will level out by year's end to NL-average), and that most of the improvement probably needs to be made there. I just think, all things being equal, that the prognosis for both this year and the future is much brighter on the offensive side of things (especially when you consider the number of nice offensive prospects and the organization's ability to produce offensive players).

So, sure, they could go hog-wild and spend a bunch of payroll on acquiring rental hitters that are almost certainly not going to be enough by themselves to win the Reds this division (you can't honestly believe that the Reds have the payroll ceiling to match the Brewers in the realm of offense this season). In order to win the division outright, they're going to need probably two bat upgrades and definitely one rotation upgrade.

I'm fine with the notion of selling off more expensive parts for young bats, but I really don't support the strategy that says push the team over the payroll threshold to chase a fantasy, then get stuck with the high-cost offensive acquisition next year.

paintmered
07-02-2009, 11:00 AM
Good discussion, but we're off topic.

Falls City Beer
07-02-2009, 11:05 AM
Good discussion, but we're off topic.

Really? The last two or three posts have been about what the Reds should or shouldn't do vis. deadline acquisitions. It strayed, but has returned.

Ltlabner
07-02-2009, 11:48 AM
So, sure, they could go hog-wild and spend a bunch of payroll on acquiring rental hitters that are almost certainly not going to be enough by themselves to win the Reds this division (you can't honestly believe that the Reds have the payroll ceiling to match the Brewers in the realm of offense this season). In order to win the division outright, they're going to need probably two bat upgrades and definitely one rotation upgrade.

I'm fine with the notion of selling off more expensive parts for young bats, but I really don't support the strategy that says push the team over the payroll threshold to chase a fantasy, then get stuck with the high-cost offensive acquisition next year.

Yes, pitching reserves in AAA are thin. What organization has several studs laying around waiting for a chance to pitch?

I'm not suggesting they should go "all in" and get a big bat because they are just that close from competition. I've thought and stated that 2009 is a Fail from day one (note the line under my screen name). So going hog wild on one bat isn't at all what I think they should do.

To tie this back to the topic at hand:

I think they should be focusing on SS, CF, LF and 3B in that order. Some areas can be addressed in-house and quickly, some are going to require creative trades.

If, in conversations regarding these other positions, a starting pitcher or nearly ready pitcher is available they should consider picking him up. If trading Harang nets you several legit prospects then do it.

Bats don't need to be right handed. They need to get on base frequently and avoid lots of outs. He can hit with his feet for all I care.

I think maybe ultimately we're saying the same thing: that is this team is not ready to compete for real an several areas need to be addressed. I think we differ on where you start. I say you focus on offense and if you get a pitcher along the way great. Nor do I agree that the starting rotation is as dismal as you constantly proclaim.

Kc61
07-02-2009, 12:16 PM
I agree with that sentiment, but it still doesn't justify the fact that they paid that abnormal sum for a closer while the rest of the team was flawed.

.


I strongly disagree with this, the Cordero acquisition was an absolute key to making this team better, the bullpen currently has the best ERA in the NL and is the number one strength of this team. Cordero as closer is key to that.

As the deadline approaches, I am absolutely unmoved by the cries of poverty on the Reds. Their position players are virtually all on cheap deals. They absolutely can and should be looking for a major player - they are in the hunt and there's no guarantee they will be next year again.

And anyone who thinks the Reds will be vying for a Central title next year should remember that there are other teams out there who could up the ante considerably by spending big next off-season and put the Reds farther behind in talent.

They passed on Dye, they probably are passing on Holliday. Someone I know still bemoans them passing on Rolen years ago. This team never goes for it.

The Reds need to spend for the offensive version of Cordero. They are not winning the NL Central with a team OPS of .711.

Falls City Beer
07-02-2009, 12:20 PM
I strongly disagree with this, the Cordero acquisition was an absolute key to making this team better, the bullpen currently has the best ERA in the NL and is number one strength of this team. Cordero as closer is key to that.

As the deadline approaches, I am absolutely unmoved by the cried of poverty on the Reds. Their position players are virtually all on cheap deals. They absolutely can and should be looking for a major player - they are in the hunt and there's no guarantee they will be next year again.

And anyone who thinks the Reds will be vying for a Central title next year should remember that there are other teams out there who could up the ante considerably by spending big next off-season and put the Reds farther behind in talent.

They passed on Dye, they probably are passing on Holliday. Someone I know still bemoans them passing on Rolen years ago. This team never goes for it.

The Reds need to spend for the offensive version of Cordero. They are not winning the NL Central with a team OPS of .711.

I don't believe it either; but wish in one hand....

edabbs44
07-02-2009, 12:26 PM
The Reds need to spend for the offensive version of Cordero. They are not winning the NL Central with a team OPS of .711.

Do you think they need one Cordero on the offensive side or 2? Or 3? To get a quality offense in place, this team neds 2 or 3 upgrades on offense. No use getting one, spending the $$$ and prospects needed in order to get that guy just to bring the team OPS up to .740.

Dye or Holliday by himself likely won't be enough.

Falls City Beer
07-02-2009, 12:30 PM
Dye or Holliday by himself likely won't be enough.

Without one serious starter upgrade it certainly won't be enough. With one other big-time offensive acquisition in addition to a Dye or Holliday, it probably brings them pretty close. But this team doesn't have $15 million they'd need to add both.

OnBaseMachine
07-02-2009, 12:32 PM
Juan Rivera sure is looking like a steal for the Angels right now. He currently has an .859 OPS, is on pace for 32 homers, and is playing great defense (+8.7UZR). He would've been a better option than Dye or Holliday becauses he's cheaper and wouldn't have cost the Reds any prospects.

Scrap Irony
07-02-2009, 12:34 PM
But a Hanley Ramirez (for example) plus EdE, Votto, a platoon of Nix/Gomes, and a platoon of Hairston/Dickerson might.

Of course, Hanley the Manley is not going to be dealt, so that becomes an entirely theorhetical excercise.

edabbs44
07-02-2009, 12:37 PM
Juan Rivera sure is looking like a steal for the Angels right now. He currently has an .859 OPS, is on pace for 32 homers, and is playing great defense (+8.7UZR). He would've been a better option than Dye or Holliday becauses he's cheaper and wouldn't have cost the Reds any prospects.

He would have been a nice addition if he was willing to move from the Left Coast.

But he was blasted by a few on here.

edabbs44
07-02-2009, 12:38 PM
Without one serious starter upgrade it certainly won't be enough. With one other big-time offensive acquisition in addition to a Dye or Holliday, it probably brings them pretty close. But this team doesn't have $15 million they'd need to add both.

Exactly. Getting someone like Dye or Holliday might appease the masses in the short-term, but at the end of the day when they fall short in October the franchise will be feeling the hangover.

bucksfan2
07-02-2009, 12:45 PM
To tie this back to the topic at hand:

I think they should be focusing on SS, CF, LF and 3B in that order. Some areas can be addressed in-house and quickly, some are going to require creative trades.

If, in conversations regarding these other positions, a starting pitcher or nearly ready pitcher is available they should consider picking him up. If trading Harang nets you several legit prospects then do it.

Bats don't need to be right handed. They need to get on base frequently and avoid lots of outs. He can hit with his feet for all I care.

I think maybe ultimately we're saying the same thing: that is this team is not ready to compete for real an several areas need to be addressed. I think we differ on where you start. I say you focus on offense and if you get a pitcher along the way great. Nor do I agree that the starting rotation is as dismal as you constantly proclaim.

SS - A definite need. The question is whether there is anyone available and at what cost. We have gone over this position before but the big question I have is whether or not a SS is available that is a big enough upgrade over what we have now and at what cost. It is also to be seen how the organization views Cozart. He has been on the fast track since his drafting.

CF - Need but to be filled shortly. Dickerson can play there now. Stubbs appears to be the heir apparent, and Heisey is the backup plan. Don't see Jocketty making a move for a CF with the system stocked.

LF - $ vs value of upgrade. Gomes and Nix have done a pretty good job so far. I don't know how well they will continue play so it more of a guess what really happens.

3B - What will Edwin do? That is the million dollar question. I don't think a move would be made until right before the trade deadline in order to give Edwin time.

Kc61
07-02-2009, 12:46 PM
Do you think they need one Cordero on the offensive side or 2? Or 3? To get a quality offense in place, this team neds 2 or 3 upgrades on offense. No use getting one, spending the $$$ and prospects needed in order to get that guy just to bring the team OPS up to .740.

Dye or Holliday by himself likely won't be enough.


Add EE and a significant bat to Votto, Phillips, Dickerson, hopefully Bruce, with Nix/Gomes around, maybe something from Hernandez and Hanigan, continued good pitching -- against this division -- yeah, they can win.

bucksfan2
07-02-2009, 12:48 PM
Exactly. Getting someone like Dye or Holliday might appease the masses in the short-term, but at the end of the day when they fall short in October the franchise will be feeling the hangover.

Heavens forbid the Reds make a move that actually puts them over the top.

edabbs44
07-02-2009, 12:50 PM
Heavens forbid the Reds make a move that actually puts them over the top.

This team currently needs multiple moves to get there. If they are able to do that then they should. But I don't want to see them deal valuable young players in order to finish in 3rd place.

Falls City Beer
07-02-2009, 12:51 PM
Heavens forbid the Reds make a move that actually puts them over the top.

I think his point is that one move won't be enough (it won't be), and two moves are almost certainly unaffordable.

Right now, the Brewers are on pace to outscore this offense by about 90-100 runs. The Reds are going to save maybe 30-40 more runs with their pitching versus the Brewers. That's some math that won't work.

edabbs44
07-02-2009, 12:52 PM
Add EE and a significant bat to Votto, Phillips, Dickerson, hopefully Bruce, with Nix/Gomes around, maybe something from Hernandez and Hanigan, continued good pitching -- against this division -- yeah, they can win.

So the return of EdE and another bat should get this team to the promised land? I find that hard to believe, but if that is the case then they should go for it.

Kc61
07-02-2009, 12:54 PM
Exactly. Getting someone like Dye or Holliday might appease the masses in the short-term, but at the end of the day when they fall short in October the franchise will be feeling the hangover.


Funny how all the perennial winners in baseball take the opposite approach. They look at where they are at mid-season and see if they can win. And if they can, they go for it.

"Appease the masses" is a cute phrase, but I would contrast the "masses" with those who are simply afraid to win. They are so stuck on protecting the future that they never are bold enough to succeed in the present. And they never recognize the opportunity to win in the present.

This team is 3 games out in July. If, as the month continues, they are in the same range and they sit back because of the future, or because they probably won't win anyway, or because they may not have enough of this or that, or because they should wait until they have a better shortstop, or whatever, then we know what they are -- and the word ain't "winners."

bucksfan2
07-02-2009, 12:54 PM
I think his point is that one move won't be enough (it won't be), and two moves are almost certainly unaffordable.

Right now, the Brewers are on pace to outscore this offense by about 90-100 runs. The Reds are going to save maybe 30-40 more runs with their pitching versus the Brewers. That's some math that won't work.

Just my opinion, but if the Reds add Holliday it puts them right at the top of the NL Central. I also think with Votto back, an improvement of Bruce, and Holliday's bat the Reds will make up quite a bit of that offensive discrepancy.

Kc61
07-02-2009, 12:57 PM
So the return of EdE and another bat should get this team to the promised land? I find that hard to believe, but if that is the case then they should go for it.

I can't guarantee or even predict the World Series. But EE and another bat certainly give the Reds a good chance of making the playoffs. That would be nice.

Everyone said that Milwaukee was stupid for getting Sabathia as a rental last year and giving up all that good talent. Everyone predicted their demise this year. There's no demise. They are doing well. Teams recover from these deals. And they made the playoffs last season.

Prospects are fine, but in pro sports if a team is constantly banking on tomorrow, it is nowhere.

TheNext44
07-02-2009, 12:58 PM
Exactly. Getting someone like Dye or Holliday might appease the masses in the short-term, but at the end of the day when they fall short in October the franchise will be feeling the hangover.

When you say "fall short in October", do you mean contend up to the last few days of the season, but not make the playoffs, or make the playoffs but not go far in them?

If it's the latter, if I knew that a trade would guarantee that the Reds would make the playoffs, and did not include Votto, Cueto, Volquez, Phillips or Bruce, (or did not an equivalent player back in both age and talent) I would do it in heartbeat. That means any prospect, including Alonso.

The value that going to the playoffs has on an organization is immeasurable. It generates income, in ticket sales for the games themselves, to increased Media money, to increased sales the next year, to increase merchandise sales. We are talking about adding $10-20M in payroll because of making the playoffs.

More importantly, in breads a mentality of winning. You attract better free agents, players feel like they are playing for something, the fans become more passionate, because they can see goal in hand.

The Brewers gave up the farm for a few months of CC, and he lead them into the playoffs. They got knocked out in the first round. Do you think that they regret that decision? Hell no.

I just with the Reds could be a bold.

And even if you meant the former, with the Reds contending to the last days of the season, that helps too, but just to a lesser extent. After 10 years of finishing below .500, that would not lead to a hangover. The Reds giving up and finishing 79-83 would give the biggest hangover.

The fans would see that the Reds gave it their all, and even with everyone counting them out before the season started, they made a valiant run for the gold. I have a feeling they would be excited for next year when they would have an even better chance.

edabbs44
07-02-2009, 01:03 PM
Funny how all the perennial winners in baseball take the opposite approach. They look at where they are at mid-season and see if they can win. And if they can, they go for it.

"Appease the masses" is a cute phrase, but I would contrast the "masses" with those who are simply afraid to win. They are so stuck on protecting the future that they never are bold enough to succeed in the present. And they never recognize the opportunity to win in the present.

This team is 3 games out in July. If, as the month continues, they are in the same range and they sit back because of the future, or because they probably won't win anyway, or because they may not have enough of this or that, or because they should wait until they have a better shortstop, or whatever, then we know what they are -- and the word ain't "winners."

And there are the examples of past Arizona and Florida teams where they go all in for the short term without consideration for the future and then need to rip down that roster shortly thereafter.

Cincy is in a "race" right now and it isn't because the team is strong. It is a difficult decision to add payroll and subtract prospects in order to be the champ of a weak division only to get your head handed to you once you venture outside the cushy NL Central. If the goal for this season is to get that NL Central flag and that's it, then they should probably make a move or two for some veterans. If they want to build a perennial winner, then they might need to think twice about what they should do.

TRF
07-02-2009, 01:10 PM
Just did a little checking. These are rough numbers courtesy ESPN, NL only.

At the C position, the Reds are 3rd in OPS.

At 1B, the Reds are 6th in OPS, but with a healthy Votto, they would probably no lower than third behind MIL and STL.

At 2B the Reds have the third highest OPS.

At 3B the Reds have the worst OPS in the NL. A healthy EE posting an average EE season would put the Reds no lower than 4th, and if he progressed as high as second.

At SS the Reds are 12th. No amount of rearranging helps here.

At LF the Reds are 10th, but the Nix/Gomes platoon would have the Reds at 5th.

At RF the Reds are 6th in OPS. Bruce's OPS has dropped 2 straight months.

At CF the Reds are dead last. CD in CF would possibly put the Reds at 6th-7th depending on how he handled LH pitching. He's been strictly platooned by Dusty.

The Reds don't need a big bat acquisition. They need some health, a little luck, and some common sense.

Kc61
07-02-2009, 01:31 PM
The Reds don't need a big bat acquisition. They need some health, a little luck, and some common sense.


The team OPS is .711, which is near the bottom of the NL. There is a need for a significant upgrade in the offense. EE plus one major bat could supply it.

It's not just a matter of playing Dickerson more or Laynce Nix.

Caveat Emperor
07-02-2009, 02:20 PM
This team currently needs multiple moves to get there. If they are able to do that then they should. But I don't want to see them deal valuable young players in order to finish in 3rd place.

The Reds might need three steps to get where they need to be, but they'll forever be three steps away unless they take step one.

TRF
07-02-2009, 03:05 PM
The team OPS is .711, which is near the bottom of the NL. There is a need for a significant upgrade in the offense. EE plus one major bat could supply it.

It's not just a matter of playing Dickerson more or Laynce Nix.

I don't see how you can look at the numbers by position and think the Reds need a bat other than the in house options getting healthy and drop kicking WT to the curb.

Now if you can find a SS that won't kill you defensively and can hit, I'd be all over that.

Benihana
07-02-2009, 03:10 PM
Now if you can find a SS that won't kill you defensively and can hit, I'd be all over that.

Yunel Escobar
Brandon Wood
Julio Lugo

I'd say there are quite a few who are available...

edabbs44
07-02-2009, 03:23 PM
The Reds might need three steps to get where they need to be, but they'll forever be three steps away unless they take step one.

Agreed, but if you move too slow that first step might be wasted. For example, in a vacuum no one can really gripe too much about acquiring a closer like Cordero. Maybe the money is an issue, but I can deal as long as Cincy is in a position to need a closer. If this team doesn't end up in contention this year, then the first 2 seasons of his record breaking contract have not been optimized. Now we are paying $12MM per year for his age 35 and 36 years. Gulp.

Moral of the story? The "first step" of acquiring Cordero, while looking like a positive move at the time, ends up hurting more than helping.

If you take that first step, you better be ready to take enough additional ones to make the first count. If you aren't ready, then bank the money and build for when you are ready to make them count.

TRF
07-02-2009, 03:29 PM
Yunel Escobar
Brandon Wood
Julio Lugo

I'd say there are quite a few who are available...

Lugo doesn't really hit. Hasn't hit since the first half of 2006.

OnBaseMachine
07-02-2009, 03:29 PM
Lugo doesn't really hit. Hasn't hit since the first half of 2006.

And he's an awful defender.

Benihana
07-02-2009, 03:33 PM
Lugo doesn't really hit. Hasn't hit since the first half of 2006.

He'd be a better leadoff option than what's currently being trotted out there.

jojo
07-02-2009, 03:41 PM
Bullpens..........



Team ERA Rank mlb cost %payroll
Reds 3.25 3 $21.6M 30
Ms 3.29 4 $4.10 4.2

TRF
07-02-2009, 03:44 PM
Bullpens..........



Team ERA Rank mlb cost %payroll
Reds 3.25 3 $21.6M 30
Ms 3.29 4 $4.10 4.2


oooh. now do the rotations...

jojo
07-02-2009, 03:45 PM
oooh. now do the rotations...

I don't want too.... :cool:

OnBaseMachine
07-02-2009, 05:41 PM
I can't think of a worse 1-2 "punch" in all of baseball than Willy Taveras (.570 OPS) and Jerry Hairston Jr. (.687 OPS). These guys are killing the Reds. My solution:

1. Make Chris Dickerson the starting center fielder. His .389 OBP and .794 OPS is a tremendous upgrade over Taveras.

2. Give Ryan Hanigan more playing time and bat him second. His .423 OBP would look great in front of Joey Votto.

The lineup I would use when Edwin Encarnacion returns:

Chris Dickerson, CF
Ryan Hanigan, C
Joey Votto, 1B
Brandon Phillips, 2B
Jay Bruce, RF
Edwin Encarnacion, 3B
Laynce Nix/Johnny Gomes, LF
Jerry Hairston Jr./Paul Janish, SS

That's still not a great lineup but it's better than what Dusty is running out there now.

It's obvious that we need another bat, preferably a shortstop. As others have suggested, I'd target Yunel Escobar or a young guy like Brandon Wood of the Angels.

Kc61
07-02-2009, 05:53 PM
I don't see how you can look at the numbers by position and think the Reds need a bat other than the in house options getting healthy and drop kicking WT to the curb.

Now if you can find a SS that won't kill you defensively and can hit, I'd be all over that.

I think the positional analysis is meaningless. Because the fact that Hernandez has a good OPS compared with other CATCHERS and Phillips has a good OPS compared with other SECOND BASEMEN means only that they are better than a weak group.

Find me, in your positional analysis, a legitimate middle of the order --a hard hitting 3-4-5 combo -- and I'll agree. But it doesn't exist on this team unless somebody dramatically improves.

Right now the team has one middle of the order hitter. One. Votto. It needs another and it needs EE to come back. Then we will be talking offense.

It might have worked out better if Bruce had hit this year. Or if Phillips had really emerged offensively. Or if Nix was a starting caliber outfielder -- I think he's a fourth outfielder. He has 7 homers and about a .300 OBP.

As of now, there is no there there. The middle of the order is weak. It needs two new members, one from Louisville in EE and one from the outside.

All this talk about shortstops just overlooks a critical need. The Reds do need a shortstop. But they also need a cleanup hitter.

TRF
07-02-2009, 06:04 PM
I think the positional analysis is meaningless. Because the fact that Hernandez has a good OPS compared with other CATCHERS and Phillips has a good OPS compared with other SECOND BASEMEN means only that they are better than a weak group.

Find me, in your positional analysis, a legitimate middle of the order --a hard hitting 3-4-5 combo -- and I'll agree. But it doesn't exist on this team.

Right now the team has one middle of the order hitter. One. Votto. It needs another and it needs EE to come back. Then we will be talking offense.

It might have worked out better if Bruce had hit this year. Or if Phillips had really emerged offensively. Or if Nix was a starting caliber outfielder -- I think he's a fourth outfielder.

But as of now, there is no there there. The middle of the order is weak. It needs two new members, one from Louisville in EE and one from the outside.

So the Reds have one of the best catching tandems is irrelevant?

So the 1B is a top 5 1B in the NL, the 2B top 3 is irrelevant?

So because even kids in Madagascar could see that CD in CF upgrades the position to top 5 in the NL it's irrelevant?

So because the Gomes/Nix platoon is producing at a top 5 rate, and yes I'll be the first to admit it might not last, it's irrelevant?

Maybe the Reds do need a big bat in LF, but there is plenty they can do in house right now to make up a ton of offense.

Kc61
07-02-2009, 06:11 PM
So the Reds have one of the best catching tandems is irrelevant?

So the 1B is a top 5 1B in the NL, the 2B top 3 is irrelevant?

So because even kids in Madagascar could see that CD in CF upgrades the position to top 5 in the NL it's irrelevant?

So because the Gomes/Nix platoon is producing at a top 5 rate, and yes I'll be the first to admit it might not last, it's irrelevant?

Maybe the Reds do need a big bat in LF, but there is plenty they can do in house right now to make up a ton of offense.

The thread is about looking for a right hand bat. The Reds should be looking for a bat, probably righty, but basically a top flight hitter. They should be looking hard and with cash and prospects in hand.

It is an obvious and significant need.

Yes, they can move some pieces around in house. But once Votto's turn is over the opposition breathes a sigh of relief. That will only end with new blood.

Again, please identify for me the Reds' middle of the order that can compete with tandems like Braun and Fielder on the Brewers. Reds have one piece. They lack the other and they scare nobody on offense -- even with Dickerson playing and Hanigan.

Will M
07-02-2009, 06:14 PM
I can't think of a worse 1-2 "punch" in all of baseball than Willy Taveras (.570 OPS) and Jerry Hairston Jr. (.687 OPS). These guys are killing the Reds. My solution:

1. Make Chris Dickerson the starting center fielder. His .389 OBP and .794 OPS is a tremendous upgrade over Taveras.

2. Give Ryan Hanigan more playing time and bat him second. His .423 OBP would look great in front of Joey Votto.

The lineup I would use when Edwin Encarnacion returns:

Chris Dickerson, CF
Ryan Hanigan, C
Joey Votto, 1B
Brandon Phillips, 2B
Jay Bruce, RF
Edwin Encarnacion, 3B
Laynce Nix/Johnny Gomes, LF
Jerry Hairston Jr./Paul Janish, SS

That's still not a great lineup but it's better than what Dusty is running out there now.

It's obvious that we need another bat, preferably a shortstop. As others have suggested, I'd target Yunel Escobar or a young guy like Brandon Wood of the Angels.

+1

I don't know who first suggested that Hanigan bat 2nd but I too like the idea.

Dickerson over Taveras is painfully obvious. I look at the starting lineups and when I see Taveras in it I don't watch the game. I started this when Dusty was batting Taveras/Gonzo 1-2. It has saved me a lot of pain.

TRF
07-02-2009, 06:21 PM
The thread is about looking for a right hand bat. The Reds should be looking for a bat, probably righty, but basically a top flight hitter. They should be looking hard and with cash and prospects in hand.

It is an obvious and significant need.

Yes, they can move some pieces around in house. But once Votto's turn is over the opposition breathes a sigh of relief. That will only end with new blood.

Again, please identify for me the Reds' middle of the order that can compete with tandems like Braun and Fielder on the Brewers. Reds have one piece. They lack the other and they scare nobody on offense -- even with Dickerson playing and Hanigan.

Votto/? < Braun/Prince. that's true. And yet that combo only leads the Reds by 2.5 games. A healthy EE and Dickerson leading off more than levels the playing field.

But it sure would help if Jay Bruce would start hitting.

*BaseClogger*
07-02-2009, 06:24 PM
The thread is about looking for a right hand bat. The Reds should be looking for a bat, probably righty, but basically a top flight hitter. They should be looking hard and with cash and prospects in hand.

It is an obvious and significant need.

Yes, they can move some pieces around in house. But once Votto's turn is over the opposition breathes a sigh of relief. That will only end with new blood.

Again, please identify for me the Reds' middle of the order that can compete with tandems like Braun and Fielder on the Brewers. Reds have one piece. They lack the other and they scare nobody on offense -- even with Dickerson playing and Hanigan.

What does any of that have to do with winning games by outscoring your opponent?

Kc61
07-02-2009, 06:28 PM
What does any of that have to do with winning games by outscoring your opponent?


Teams with excellent hitters tend to score more runs than teams without excellent hitters.

jojo
07-02-2009, 06:33 PM
I think the Reds should be looking for any upgrade from anywhere.

They need to add.

*BaseClogger*
07-02-2009, 06:42 PM
Teams with excellent hitters tend to score more runs than teams without excellent hitters.

But there aren't any excellent hitters available, and they tend to be expensive. The Reds just need to improve their weaknesses with average players becase they already have excellent pitching...

reds44
07-02-2009, 07:23 PM
I can't think of a worse 1-2 "punch" in all of baseball than Willy Taveras (.570 OPS) and Jerry Hairston Jr. (.687 OPS). These guys are killing the Reds. My solution:

1. Make Chris Dickerson the starting center fielder. His .389 OBP and .794 OPS is a tremendous upgrade over Taveras.

2. Give Ryan Hanigan more playing time and bat him second. His .423 OBP would look great in front of Joey Votto.

The lineup I would use when Edwin Encarnacion returns:

Chris Dickerson, CF
Ryan Hanigan, C
Joey Votto, 1B
Brandon Phillips, 2B
Jay Bruce, RF
Edwin Encarnacion, 3B
Laynce Nix/Johnny Gomes, LF
Jerry Hairston Jr./Paul Janish, SS

That's still not a great lineup but it's better than what Dusty is running out there now.

It's obvious that we need another bat, preferably a shortstop. As others have suggested, I'd target Yunel Escobar or a young guy like Brandon Wood of the Angels.
For once, I think most everybody on redszone can agree that should be the lineup.

Falls City Beer
07-02-2009, 08:49 PM
I think the Reds should be looking for any upgrade from anywhere.

They need to add.

My take exactly. This organization is still fairly talent-threadbare. Some interesting crops growing in the fields, but lots of mouths to feed right now.

Ron Madden
07-03-2009, 04:40 AM
The team OPS is .711, which is near the bottom of the NL. There is a need for a significant upgrade in the offense.

It's not just a matter of playing Dickerson more or Laynce Nix.

Playing Taveras less would help.

Ron Madden
07-03-2009, 05:06 AM
We don't need Holliday or Mathews Jr. We need guys to get on base, especially at the top of the batting order.

I honestly believe Dusty fails to understand this, as simple as it is.

Dusty has to have a speedy CF leading off followed by a punch & judy hitting middle infielder, the rest of the batting order has to go R,L,R,L,R,L.

Wouldn't surprise me to see Dusty bat Bruce and Edwin 7th & 8th.

:(

klw
07-03-2009, 07:02 PM
• Seeing Red: The Reds' efforts to get DeRosa notwithstanding, clubs that have spoken with them say they're still planning to tread water for a little while longer to see if they can hang in the race. And if they can, they'll ramp up their pursuit of a bat again. But the Reds are one of many teams not really interested in taking on dollars.

Per Jayson Stark
http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/columns/story?columnist=stark_jayson&page=rumblings090703

OnBaseMachine
07-04-2009, 08:21 PM
Please don't mortgage future
Reds insider
By John Fay • jfay@enquirer.com • July 4, 2009

Friday night’s loss was one of those games that make it hard – no really impossible – to stick to the old it’s-one-of-162 adage.

It was a very ugly ending to what could have been a very uplifting night for the home team.

My thoughts on the 7-4 loss to the great Albert Pujols: The killer was Arthur Rhodes walking Jarrett Hoffpauir, who was making his major league debut, on four pitches; I might have used Francisco Cordero to pitch to Pujols.

But what I took mostly out of the game had nothing to do with the outcome. Sure it would have been nice for the Reds to win. But as David Weathers pointed out, you don’t win the division on July 3. However, you can make decisions that affect the organization long term.

And it would be foolish right now to trade Homer Bailey or any of the other top arms to rent a bat for less than three months.

There’s sentiment among fans and pundits that the Reds need to make a big splash of a trade.

I wouldn’t if it meant giving up Bailey or Zach Stewart, the third-round draft pick from last year who has zipped through the minors.

Why? I don’t think this team is a Matt Holliday away from making the playoffs.

But I think a rotation with Edinson Volquez, Johnny Cueto, Bailey and Stewart could help return the franchise to sustained excellence. That’s the long-term goal. You don’t want to chuck that for a chance at one playoff run.

I know it was just one start for Bailey. But when you’ve got a 23-year-old throwing 96, 97 mph and making Pujols look bad the stuff is there.

“He was aggressive with the fastball in the strike zone,” an American League scout said. “His curveball has always been projectable (to the majors). Everyone talks about split-finger. He uses it more as a change-up. But the fastball is the key.”

Bailey agreed to a degree.

“Yeah, locating the fastball -- and I think with my previous games -- they were gonna be looking first-pitch fastball,” Bailey said. “I knew if I could get a first-pitch breaking ball over I could definitely benefit. Now it’s something else they can look at, and I tried to show them I could throw other pitches for strikes.”

Bailey would be a big chip on the trade market right now. Just like Joey Votto probably would have landed Eric Bedard two off seasons ago. No one is kicking the Reds for not doing that now, eh?

I’m not saying that the Reds shouldn’t make a move. But I don’t think you pull out all the stops just to try to make a run this season.

My guess is the Reds are looking at deals that would help the teams long term, i.e, trying to land a young shortstop.

Landing someone like Mark DeRosa would make sense if the price isn’t too high as far as prospects.

The other side of it is while you, I and most experts don’t think the Reds can make the playoffs, the guys in the clubhouse do.

One of the other things about Friday: Remember, the Reds tied it after Pujols’ grand slam. Then after, the Cardinals scored three in the ninth, the Reds loaded the bases in the bottom of the inning.

This team has been remarkably resilient.

They’ve probably got a few more good runs in them, whether they add another bat or not. They also just got Edwin Encarnacion back. Alex Gonzalez will be back in a couple of weeks.

I’d go with what they have rather than mortgagingthe future for a rent a bat, especially if it means giving up Bailey.

http://news.cincinnati.com/article/20090704/SPT04/307040020/1071/Please+don+t+mortgage+future

edabbs44
07-04-2009, 10:31 PM
I agree with Fay.

Brutus
07-04-2009, 10:50 PM
I agree with Fay.

I agree with him. However, it seems he's suggesting the Reds not do something that no one else has really advocated. I don't think too many people wanted to mortgage the future. And from what I've heard repeatedly, the Reds have no desire (or plans) to trade Homer anyhow. I've seen it reported on multiple occasions they would consider trading Arroyo or Harang this year, while trying to compete, before they'd trade Bailey.

So it seems he's preaching to the choir.

nate
07-04-2009, 10:59 PM
I agree with him. However, it seems he's suggesting the Reds not do something that no one else has really advocated. I don't think too many people wanted to mortgage the future. And from what I've heard repeatedly, the Reds have no desire (or plans) to trade Homer anyhow. I've seen it reported on multiple occasions they would consider trading Arroyo or Harang this year, while trying to compete, before they'd trade Bailey.

So it seems he's preaching to the choir.

Right. I think there's a significant delta between mortgaging the future and making a trade that makes us good now and in the future.

TheNext44
07-05-2009, 11:25 PM
Sorry Mario-Rijo:

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2009/07/as-acquire-scott-hairston.html (http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2009/07/as-acquire-scott-hairston.html)



A's Acquire Scott Hairston
By Eddie Schmid [July 5, 2009 at 8:57pm CST]

8:55pm: Jesse Sanchez of MLB.com says the new Padres pitchers are RHP Ryan Webb and high-A RHP Craig Italiano. Corey Brock at MLB.com tells us that Webb will join the Padres in Phoenix tomorrow, while Italiano will likely head to the Pads' Class-A affiliate Lake Elsinore.

Keith Law of ESPN says this about Italiano: "Great arm, bad delivery. Stick him in the pen and watch him go." The 22-year-old was a second-round draft choice for the A's in 2005. Webb, 23, was drafted in the fourth round in 2004 and has worked his way through the minors, putting up a 4.43 ERA and 37/15 K/BB ratio as a starter for Triple-A Sacramento this season.

LoganBuck
07-05-2009, 11:30 PM
Sorry Mario-Rijo:

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2009/07/as-acquire-scott-hairston.html (http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2009/07/as-acquire-scott-hairston.html)

I am puzzled by this one. Why did the As acquire Hairston? Are they trying to flip him as well?

Mario-Rijo
07-05-2009, 11:43 PM
I am puzzled by this one. Why did the As acquire Hairston? Are they trying to flip him as well?

Taking out the competition?

Dangit man, 2 low level arms. Give me a freaking break!!

jojo
07-06-2009, 10:57 AM
Here's an out of the box idea....

Screw Wilson as a solution at short (something that has been debated around here recently). He's an upgrade but in the end, he's just something akin to a league average player.

Instead, still trade with the Pirates but target Sanchez. Move Phillips to short.

Suddenly the middle infield would have two above average players.

edabbs44
07-06-2009, 10:58 AM
Taking out the competition?

Dangit man, 2 low level arms. Give me a freaking break!!

Webb is a AAA guy.

OnBaseMachine
07-06-2009, 11:39 AM
Sorry Mario-Rijo:

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2009/07/as-acquire-scott-hairston.html (http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2009/07/as-acquire-scott-hairston.html)

Great deal for the A's. Yet another productive player is traded for an underwhelming return. Maybe one of these days Walt will do something.

edabbs44
07-13-2009, 09:42 AM
Great deal for the A's. Yet another productive player is traded for an underwhelming return. Maybe one of these days Walt will do something.


Sean Gallagher is the "player to be named later" in the Scott Hairston deal.

The Padres sent Hairston to Oakland on July 5 for right-handers Craig Italiano, Ryan Webb and a PTBNL. With Gallagher now thrown into the mix, it seems like a bad deal for the A's. Gallagher, a 23-year-old right-hander, could eventually settle in as a solid No. 3 or No. 4 starter. He'll be sent over to San Diego once he returns from the Triple-A disabled list.

OnBaseMachine
07-13-2009, 11:37 AM
I still like this deal for Oakland. Gallagher is only 23 and is already in his third organization. He's got a long way to go in the control department.

Mario-Rijo
07-13-2009, 12:56 PM
Sean Gallagher is the "player to be named later" in the Scott Hairston deal.

The Padres sent Hairston to Oakland on July 5 for right-handers Craig Italiano, Ryan Webb and a PTBNL. With Gallagher now thrown into the mix, it seems like a bad deal for the A's. Gallagher, a 23-year-old right-hander, could eventually settle in as a solid No. 3 or No. 4 starter. He'll be sent over to San Diego once he returns from the Triple-A disabled list.

Too me that is akin to LeCure, Pawelek and Sean Watson. Sure it may have hurt our overall depth a smidge for the rest of the season but beyond that no big loss. It wouldn't surprise me to see us lose an arm like those dealt in the rule 5 this coming offseason.

edabbs44
09-09-2009, 12:51 PM
Interesting take on the Scott Hairston deal, a few months after it has settled.


* Not knocking Billy Beane here, but I'm still hearing puzzled responses to Oakland's trade of three young pitchers to the Padres for Scott Hairston. It's not that scouts rate the three pitchers as top-drawer prospects. But each throws hard, and power arms are in demand. Further, it's not like the salary-cutting Padres had much leverage. Hairston might command close to $4 million next year and was blocking young outfielders in San Diego. "The Padres got three pitchers who all have a chance to be major leaguers," said the AL scout. "I like (Ryan) Webb. (Craig) Italiano has a really good sinker. Sean Gallagher, I liked him last year. Oakland got smoked on that trade as far as I'm concerned, even if Italiano never gets there."

http://insidethepadres.blogspot.com/2009/09/tuesday-notes.html

RANDY IN INDY
09-09-2009, 01:07 PM
With Beane at the helm, I'm sure there is a solid, fact based answer for this.