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Btrester151
07-02-2009, 01:02 AM
I LOVED this signing last year. I am really pulling for this kid (if you can call a 6'5" 200 17 year old a kid).

I know the GLC reds are only a few games into the season, but Im curious as to why nobody is talking about him. He is currently 0-17 with a nice 5 walks (6 k) in 5 games. He will be 18 in just over 2 months.

Does anyone know how long he will be DH this year? I know he is rated off the charts in power, but I only see 1 HR in 46 games as a "pro". When will his power numbers begin to show?

Not trying to bash him, just trying to learn more about our farm system.

travisgrimes
07-02-2009, 01:19 AM
right now he is much like most young kids... he is not very disciplined at the plate and swings at bad pitches... from what I hear when he connects they are always line drives and high fly balls but right now his timing isn't down and his plate discipline need to improve

11larkin11
07-02-2009, 01:20 AM
right now he is much like most young kids... he is not very disciplined at the plate and swings at bad pitches... from what I hear when he connects they are always line drives and high fly balls but right now his timing isn't down and his plate discipline need to improve

Plate discipline is his best asset right now. 5 BBs and 6 Ks? Thats great for a 16 year old

dougdirt
07-02-2009, 01:48 AM
Plate discipline is his best asset right now. 5 BBs and 6 Ks? Thats great for a 16 year old

At the same time, that K rate is over 27% given his PA. Thats awfully high. Plate discipline doesn't always mean walks.

corkedbat
07-02-2009, 01:53 AM
16 & 17 in the GLC. I don't care what the numbers are for he and Yorman this year. Just getting the experience is great at this point. I think he'll come on as the season goes by.

OnBaseMachine
07-02-2009, 03:05 AM
He's 17 years old. I'm not going to panic over a handful of atbats? I'll be concerned if he's still struggling two years from now. I honestly don't expect much out of Yorman or Duran this year. We have to remember, these kids would be sophomores or juniors in high school if they grew up in the United States. I'm sure Jay Bruce or Joey Votto would have struggled in the GCL at age 16/17.

JayBruceFan
07-02-2009, 03:27 AM
At age 16/17, Bruce and Votto were sophomores or juniors in high school

At age 16/17, Juan Duran was a professional baseball player playing in a different country for the first time


Calm down people, this is going to take some time

Btrester151
07-02-2009, 01:21 PM
Who is freaking out?

Just curious about him. He is playing against alot of guys a year or 2 older than him (he will be 18 in september).

My main question i guess is when will he be healthy enough to play in the field? Has anyone seen video of him playing defence, or has he only been a DH his time here?

I really can't wait to see the kind of year he can put together when he "gets it"!

OnBaseMachine
03-09-2010, 02:08 PM
*Bump*

There was a report a while back that said Juan Duran had grew a couple more inches and a few folks were worried he was going to outgrow the outfield or increase his strikezone. Well, John Fay just tweeted this:

Official height on #Reds prospect Juan Duran is 6-6. I had heard conflicting numbers

http://twitter.com/johnfayman

Considering he's now 18 years old, he's probably done growing by now.

Superdude
03-09-2010, 03:12 PM
that's about the height we signed him at right? At least those 6'8" rumors aren't true yet

dougdirt
03-09-2010, 04:03 PM
that's about the height we signed him at right? At least those 6'8" rumors aren't true yet

Or maybe they are and the Reds are downing his height like they up some guys.

Will M
03-09-2010, 05:22 PM
*Bump*

There was a report a while back that said Juan Duran had grew a couple more inches and a few folks were worried he was going to outgrow the outfield or increase his strikezone. Well, John Fay just tweeted this:

Official height on #Reds prospect Juan Duran is 6-6. I had heard conflicting numbers

http://twitter.com/johnfayman

Considering he's now 18 years old, he's probably done growing by now.

probably but David Robinson grew 6 inches in his first year at the Naval Academy. after that he wouldn't fit in a submarine!

Caveat Emperor
03-09-2010, 06:38 PM
Or maybe they are and the Reds are downing his height like they up some guys.

If they are, they should immediately send him to Brian Price to see if he can teach him how to pitch -- because his days as an outfield prospect are probably over.

TRF
03-09-2010, 06:54 PM
If they are, they should immediately send him to Brian Price to see if he can teach him how to pitch -- because his days as an outfield prospect are probably over.

I had the same thought a few weeks ago. He's certainly young enough to make the transition.

TC81190
03-09-2010, 09:09 PM
If they are, they should immediately send him to Brian Price to see if he can teach him how to pitch -- because his days as an outfield prospect are probably over.
man I hope not. The exciting thing about his signing was how good of a hitter they made him out to be. Hopefully he sticks in the OF, but if not, maybe somewhere in the corner IF.

Tony Cloninger
03-09-2010, 10:19 PM
He does not need that extra 2-3 inches....i will gladly take them off his hands

REDblooded
03-09-2010, 11:10 PM
Yeah... If he's 6'6" and still has solid speed, it's not really an issue tbh... If not, stick him at first...

Degenerate39
03-09-2010, 11:47 PM
Where is he suppose to play at this year? High A?

OnBaseMachine
03-10-2010, 12:21 AM
Where is he suppose to play at this year? High A?

Either the AZL or Billings.

JaxRed
03-12-2010, 12:43 PM
I saw him yesterday..... didn't look any taller to me

lollipopcurve
03-12-2010, 12:50 PM
I saw him yesterday..... didn't look any taller to me

Jax,

Did you get over to the minor league side? If so, anything of interest?

JaxRed
03-12-2010, 12:55 PM
I watched an hour or so of workouts but nothing really jumped out. I assumed Henry Rodriguez would be skinny, but he's a little "fuller" than that. ONly thing I noticed

TheNext44
03-15-2010, 05:00 PM
Here are some pics of Duran from the other day. Hard to say exactly how tall he is, but it's clear, he's real tall.


5648

5649

5650

OnBaseMachine
03-15-2010, 05:09 PM
Thanks for the pics, Next.

He certainly is tall, but he doesn't look any taller than, say, Adam Dunn who is 6'6". It appears as if that tall and lanky frame is starting to fill out as expected. He's struggled early on but he still has significant upside and plenty of time to figure things out.

pahster
03-16-2010, 11:42 AM
Why do we think especially tall people can't play the outfield?

GIDP
03-16-2010, 12:25 PM
Why do we think especially tall people can't play the outfield?

I don't think this.

klw
03-16-2010, 01:03 PM
How long until the Reds have to be concerned about the Rule 5 draft with Duran? both for the MLB and the MiLB versions.

krm1580
03-16-2010, 02:24 PM
How long until the Reds have to be concerned about the Rule 5 draft with Duran? both for the MLB and the MiLB versions.

He was in the organzation prior to the age of 18 and is therefore not exposed to the draft for 5 years.

If my math is right he would have to be on the 40 man at the end of the 2014 season to avoid being exposed to the draft.

Caveat Emperor
03-16-2010, 02:34 PM
Why do we think especially tall people can't play the outfield?

Playing the outfield isn't what I'm concerned about -- it's the gigantic strike zone and elongated swing that comes from being a big guy.

pahster
03-16-2010, 03:01 PM
Playing the outfield isn't what I'm concerned about -- it's the gigantic strike zone and elongated swing that comes from being a big guy.

The size of the strike zone is only a problem if he's incapable of covering it. If he can't handle it, I doubt he would have been able to handle the slightly smaller zone had he not grown two inches.

Benihana
03-17-2010, 12:08 AM
Richie Sexson, Corey Hart, and Adam Dunn have all had nice careers despite big strike zones/statures.

TheNext44
03-17-2010, 01:15 AM
The size of the strike zone is only a problem if he's incapable of covering it. If he can't handle it, I doubt he would have been able to handle the slightly smaller zone had he not grown two inches.

Actually being tall does make it harder to cover your strike zone.

When you hit, you want to keep your hands as close to your body as possible and at the same level throughout your swing. Your arms should only be stretched out at the end of your swing with your hands parallel to your shoulder, preferably right as you make contact.

If you need to hit a low pitch, you just dip the head of the bat down, while keeping your hands at the same level. This is easy with a normal sized strike zone and bat. The sweet spot can still reach a pitch at your knees.

But if you are too tall, and your strike zone too big, those low pitches are impossible to reach with the sweet part of the bat without moving your hands lower. So you need to move your hands to reach the low pitches, which creates a hole in your swing.

It's why so many tall hitters have low batting averages. They simply can't reach low pitches without screwing up their swing.

pahster
03-17-2010, 08:32 AM
Actually being tall does make it harder to cover your strike zone.

When you hit, you want to keep your hands as close to your body as possible and at the same level throughout your swing. Your arms should only be stretched out at the end of your swing with your hands parallel to your shoulder, preferably right as you make contact.

If you need to hit a low pitch, you just dip the head of the bat down, while keeping your hands at the same level. This is easy with a normal sized strike zone and bat. The sweet spot can still reach a pitch at your knees.

But if you are too tall, and your strike zone too big, those low pitches are impossible to reach with the sweet part of the bat without moving your hands lower. So you need to move your hands to reach the low pitches, which creates a hole in your swing.

It's why so many tall hitters have low batting averages. They simply can't reach low pitches without screwing up their swing.

The taller a player is, the longer their arms are going to be on average. Why would a tall player with proportionally longer arms have trouble reaching a low and away pitch?

membengal
03-17-2010, 12:44 PM
Maybe he is an ent? Treebeard had trouble with low pitches, by all accounts.

dfs
03-17-2010, 01:09 PM
Richie Sexson, Corey Hart, and Adam Dunn have all had nice careers despite big strike zones/statures.

Yes, but large guys have a tendency to break down in the field.

Dave Winfield. He's really the only tall large guy that managed to stay in the outfield. Everybody else that size has been moved to first.

pahster
03-17-2010, 01:36 PM
Yes, but large guys have a tendency to break down in the field.

Dave Winfield. He's really the only tall large guy that managed to stay in the outfield. Everybody else that size has been moved to first.

Were they moved to first due to injury problems, age, or because they weren't very good at playing the OF? I can't imagine there have been very many people who've played MLB who were Dunn's size or larger simply because he's a huge guy. It's not normal to be that tall.

TheNext44
03-17-2010, 01:58 PM
The taller a player is, the longer their arms are going to be on average. Why would a tall player with proportionally longer arms have trouble reaching a low and away pitch?

When a batter swings, he needs to keep you hands as close to his body as possible, and level with his shoulders. He covers the bottom of the strike zone by dipping the bat head down, not by reaching lower. If he reaches lower, he creates a big hole in his swing. This is why you always hear about great hitters having a "level" swing, and "still hands".

Tall guys can't cover the bottom of their strike zone with just their bat, they need to drop their hands and thus create a hole in their swing. This is the main reason why most tall guys have low batting averages. It doesn't effect their power, but gives them a hole in thier swing that pitchers can exploit.

redsof72
03-17-2010, 09:42 PM
The size argument, while probably valid to some degree, is being used as a convenient excuse by Baseball America to explain how a player they rated so very highly is looking so far from being a real prospect. From his very first day of instructional league in 2008, you heard whispers that he just wasn't very good, plain and simple. Some of those comments may have been based on the fact that other players saw the huge bonus given to a 16 year old and were skeptical. But the fact is, lets face it, he is still one of the very worst players in the entire organization. Do you know how hard it is to hit .177 in the Gulf Coast League? Do you know how far a player who hit .177 in the GCL has to go just to be able to compete in Dayton? This player has light years to go to get into any prospect discussion.

OnBaseMachine
03-21-2010, 02:26 AM
Our buddy Doug got a hold of some video of Duran and timed him from home to first base at 4.16 seconds. As Doug noted, that's amazing for someone as tall as him.

http://redsminorleagues.com/2010/03/20/saturday-news-and-notes-7/

dougdirt
03-21-2010, 02:52 AM
Our buddy Doug got a hold of some video of Duran and timed him from home to first base at 4.16 seconds. As Doug noted, that's amazing for someone as tall as him.

http://redsminorleagues.com/2010/03/20/saturday-news-and-notes-7/

To compare just how fast that is, I looked at the video from Corey Brinn - Dayton's clubhouse guy and of www.CoreyBrinn.com - of Andrew Means on an infield single. Andrew Means ran a 4.3 at the NFL scouting combine last season. Using the same method, Means ran a 4.10 to first. Duran was absolutely moving down that line even though it didn't look like it.

mth123
03-21-2010, 04:27 AM
To compare just how fast that is, I looked at the video from Corey Brinn - Dayton's clubhouse guy and of www.CoreyBrinn.com - of Andrew Means on an infield single. Andrew Means ran a 4.3 at the NFL scouting combine last season. Using the same method, Means ran a 4.10 to first. Duran was absolutely moving down that line even though it didn't look like it.

Wouldn't 4.3 for 40 yeards be more like 3.225 for 90 feet? I get that getting out of the box is where alot of the time gets added and it wouldn't be proportional so maybe 3.5 if you allow that it isn't a straight 75% ratio.

How do you get the 4.10 number?

GIDP
03-21-2010, 12:15 PM
Home to 1st time includes everything after the bat makes contact with the ball I think.

dougdirt
03-21-2010, 01:29 PM
Wouldn't 4.3 for 40 yeards be more like 3.225 for 90 feet? I get that getting out of the box is where alot of the time gets added and it wouldn't be proportional so maybe 3.5 if you allow that it isn't a straight 75% ratio.

How do you get the 4.10 number?

You start timing when the ball hits the bat. So you get the follow through on the swing, then the turn and then the start of the run. 4.1 for a right hander is above average. 4.2 is about league average.

RedsManRick
03-21-2010, 01:52 PM
You start timing when the ball hits the bat. So you get the follow through on the swing, then the turn and then the start of the run. 4.1 for a right hander is above average. 4.2 is about league average.

What does the distribution look like? Where are the extremes?

dougdirt
03-21-2010, 02:32 PM
What does the distribution look like? Where are the extremes?

4.2 is MLB average. 4.1 is above average. 4.0 is plus. 4.3 is below, and so on. For example, Yonder Alonso is about a 4.5-4.6 guy. Very slow.

Lets note that those are for RHH on non bunts and on balls they are running it out on. One thing I am going to be doing a lot of this year at minor league games is timing guys. So by the end of the year I will hopefully have data on 50+ guys in the system from 2010.

mth123
03-21-2010, 02:36 PM
You start timing when the ball hits the bat. So you get the follow through on the swing, then the turn and then the start of the run. 4.1 for a right hander is above average. 4.2 is about league average.

I get that. How do you figure Means' .4.3 40 translates to 4.1 to 1B?

dougdirt
03-21-2010, 03:53 PM
I get that. How do you figure Means' .4.3 40 translates to 4.1 to 1B?

I don't figure anything. I just know that he ran a 4.3 at the NFL combine last year and that this spring he ran a 4.1 to first base.

mth123
03-21-2010, 04:23 PM
I don't figure anything. I just know that he ran a 4.3 at the NFL combine last year and that this spring he ran a 4.1 to first base.

So 4.1 was an actual figure? That makes more sense.




Means ran a 4.3 at the NFL scouting combine last season. Using the same method, Means ran a 4.10 to first.



That sounded to me like some conversion method. For the record, 4.3 for 120 feet is 3.225 for 90 feet. 4.1 sounds like he has trouble getting out of the box. I know its still pretty good, but I'd have expected better. Maybe 3.7 or 3.8.

dougdirt
03-21-2010, 04:27 PM
So 4.1 was an actual figure? That makes more sense. I meant using the same method as I used for Duran. That was my bad.




That sounded to me like some conversion method. For the record, 4.3 for 120 feet is 3.225 for 90 feet. 4.1 sounds like he has trouble getting out of the box. I know its still pretty good, but I'd have expected better. Maybe 3.7 or 3.8.

Running a 40 yard dash you are facing the line and you begin running as soon as you hear go. Running first to home the time starts when you touch the ball to the bat. You still have to finish your swing, then square yourself with first base, then you actually start running and its actually a little more than 90 feet since you are in the batters box and by the time you finish your swing, probably 92 or 93.

OnBaseMachine
03-28-2010, 09:43 PM
From C. Trent:


* I also saw Juan Duran. He's listed at 6-8 and I believe it. In spikes, my head was probably about to his shoulders -- and I'm 6-1 or so. He has a long swing and is also pretty raw. But he's also just 18.


http://cnati.com/blogs/ctrent/2010/03/hanging-on-the-back-fields.php#comments

I've been reading some nice things about Duran this spring. A poster over on Doug's website visited Goodyear last week and said Duran hit the ball harder than anyone in Reds camp, and that included Bruce, Francisco, and Votto. He's obviously still very raw, but I think he's gonna take a step forward this season.

Superdude
03-28-2010, 11:56 PM
there's that 6'8" number again. Duran needs to stop growing fast

Topcat
03-29-2010, 05:08 AM
there's that 6'8" number again. Duran needs to stop growing fast


Or convert and become Randy Johnson part deux :thumbup:

Redmachine2003
03-29-2010, 11:01 AM
I meant using the same method as I used for Duran. That was my bad.




Running a 40 yard dash you are facing the line and you begin running as soon as you hear go. Running first to home the time starts when you touch the ball to the bat. You still have to finish your swing, then square yourself with first base, then you actually start running and its actually a little more than 90 feet since you are in the batters box and by the time you finish your swing, probably 92 or 93.
Also when running any type of sprint your 1st 10 yards are the slowest as you are building speed so the shorter the race the less chance of hitting your top end speed and for people who are long striders it takes a little longer to get to that speed. Usain Bolt and Chris Johnson are trying to set a race but they can't agree on the Distance. Johnson wants it to be the 40 yard dash but Bolt wants it to be the 100 meter. The Reason being is because Bolt is 6'5" and his Forty is right at a 4.3- 4.35 and the 5'11" Johnson forty is a 4.21- 4.26. Johnson hits that high end speed faster while Bolt needs a little more time to reach it but his high end speed is faster than Johnson's. Another way is to look at their 10 yard splits on the Forty. Chris Johnson Ran a 4.24 at the Combine his 1st 10 yards was a 1.40 the Next 10 yards was a 1.01. Compared to Calvin Johnson who ran 4.35 forty at 6'5" his splits are 1st 10 yards 1.52 and the next was 1.01 the same as Chris Johnson once he got up to speed.

fearofpopvol1
03-29-2010, 03:02 PM
there's that 6'8" number again. Duran needs to stop growing fast

this.

he's going to have some major holes in that swing if he doesn't stop.

mdccclxix
07-12-2010, 08:48 PM
Just saw Corey Hart interviewed on MLB network and his height struck me. I thought of Duran immediately. Well, at 6-8 I don't know how much taller he can realistically get, but Hart does offer a comp at 18 in the PIO league: .287 / .332/ .366/ .698

Can it help for a tall player to widen his stance?