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OnBaseMachine
07-04-2009, 03:48 AM
Pujols on Bailey
Posted by JohnFay at 7/3/2009 11:10 PM EDT on Cincinnati.com

Albert Pujols on Homer Bailey:

"Homer Bailey pitched an unbelievable game. He has electic stuff. If he stays healthy, he's going to put up big numbers."

http://news.cincinnati.com/apps/pbcs.dll/section?category=blog07&plckController=Blog&plckScript=blogScript&plckElementId=blogDest&plckBlogPage=BlogViewPost&plckPostId=Blog%3ae57bcc87-152a-4f72-96fb-cc08b1f396efPost%3ad16d1a57-a24a-4037-960a-794eb2dcbd1a&sid=sitelife.cincinnati.com

Albert is a classy guy. That's high praise right there for Bailey.

WMR
07-04-2009, 04:02 AM
I hate Albert Pujols but God would I love to have him on my team. Just a flat out winner and, like it or not, has kept his name from being involved in any steroid lists and should be viewed as a clean baseball player until proven otherwise.

As for Homer, wow, it is hard not to get very excited over this kid and that things might finally be clicking for him upstairs.

I hope Jocketty is assessing what can be done to move Arroyo in preparation for Edinson's return, although Owings is perhaps the better candidate to lose his spot in the rotation.

Homer should stick with the big league club unless he absolutely implodes over a couple/few starts.

redsfandan
07-04-2009, 04:07 AM
It's always good when a hitter like Pujols says something like that. But does anyone, who saw the game, have an opinion on the movement of Homers pitches?

Mario-Rijo
07-04-2009, 04:22 AM
Pujols on Bailey
Posted by JohnFay at 7/3/2009 11:10 PM EDT on Cincinnati.com

Albert Pujols on Homer Bailey:

"Homer Bailey pitched an unbelievable game. He has electic stuff. If he stays healthy, he's going to put up big numbers."

http://news.cincinnati.com/apps/pbcs.dll/section?category=blog07&plckController=Blog&plckScript=blogScript&plckElementId=blogDest&plckBlogPage=BlogViewPost&plckPostId=Blog%3ae57bcc87-152a-4f72-96fb-cc08b1f396efPost%3ad16d1a57-a24a-4037-960a-794eb2dcbd1a&sid=sitelife.cincinnati.com

Albert is a classy guy. That's high praise right there for Bailey.

And this...


"Bailey threw an unbelievable game," Pujols said. "We're glad [he came out] in the eighth inning."

Mario-Rijo
07-04-2009, 04:30 AM
It's always good when a hitter like Pujols says something like that. But does anyone, who saw the game, have an opinion on the movement of Homers pitches?

Yes they were very good. His splitter was tight with late, sharp downward break on several occasions and often for a swinging strike 3. His curve he used sparingly but it too had late sharp break. I thought I saw his FB run away from LH's on a couple of occasions, not sure that is what it was but it didn't break down just away, so I assume it was his FB. I don't recall him using his slider much if at all but last game he threw a couple of nice sliders that started middle of the plate and broke pretty well away from RH's. And he had command of all his pitches particularly in the middle of the outing where he was spotting his FB better and better as he went. He didn't have it at the start very well but you could almost actually see his confidence growing as he K'd Pujols and proceeded in getting out if the 1st inning jam. By the 3rd or 4th he was just masterful.

Kind of crazy I didn't really expect to ever see that kind of performance out of Homer, but he was indeed filthy tonight. Here's to hoping he stays in that general vicinity from here on out. The key with him will be to find a nice middle ground with his confidence and intensity level. You could see he started to get comfortable a few times and started to slack and his command would get a little sloppy. And then he'd catch it and right the ship to get the out.

redsfandan
07-04-2009, 04:54 AM
Kind of crazy I didn't really expect to ever see that kind of performance out of Homer, but he was indeed filthy tonight. Here's to hoping he stays in that general vicinity from here on out. The key with him will be to find a nice middle ground with his confidence and intensity level. You could see he started to get comfortable a few times and started to slack and his command would get a little sloppy. And then he'd catch it and right the ship to get the out.
Sounds like you're becoming more optimistic about him. No?

Mario-Rijo
07-04-2009, 05:07 AM
Sounds like you're becoming more optimistic about him. No?

We will see, I still remember his very 1st or maybe it was his second outing he was pretty exceptional against the A's a few years ago IIRC and it was all down hill from there. But the way his stuff sets up now if he can stay confident and concentrate on staying even keel and trust his stuff yeah he makes me more optimistic. I believe tonight Homer finally saw his stuff as big league stuff and gained an enormous step in the right direction. Regardless of who else was in the game when you can be aggressive with Pujols and make him go 0-3 regardless of how it happened you gotta know you can handle just about anyone.

redsfandan
07-04-2009, 05:11 AM
We have a few young guys (Bailey, Bruce, Cueto) that could play a big part in the Reds success the next few years.

icehole3
07-04-2009, 06:53 AM
he threw strikes, didnt lose his head, let the catcher call the game, fielded his position, looked like the guy pitching Sunday for STL

redsfandan
07-04-2009, 06:56 AM
Hell, I'd love it if he could turn into another Carpenter.

MWM
07-04-2009, 12:00 PM
From my seat behind home plate last night Homer looked every bit as dominant as his state line indicated. He had them off balance all night and they took very few good cuts at the ball. He mixed his speeds beautifully, had command of his pitches, and was generally in control of about every AB.

I've been as pessimistic as anyone about him, and am still a skeptic, but what I saw last night is a different pitcher than I've seen before. I hope he's found something that is sustainable, because last night's pitcher was a legit big time MLB pitcher.

dougdirt
07-04-2009, 12:30 PM
This was the game I was waiting to see him pitch. He has thrown ones like this in Louisville... some even better as far as the offspeed stuff goes, but its never translated to the majors. Its all there in his arm, if he can do it semi consistently, the sky is indeed the limit.

lollipopcurve
07-04-2009, 01:18 PM
I'll go ahead and consider Pujols a reliable source when it comes to judging Bailey's stuff. As far as how that translates to performance, I expect him to do well pretty often -- but as comes with inexperience, he'll have off nights here and there. Consistency comes with time.

Lotta folks seemed convinced he'd fail. I had my doubts too. But at this point I think we can rest easy -- Homer's going to help the Reds. Maybe a solid starter, maybe something more. It's a significant win for the franchise.

edabbs44
07-04-2009, 01:23 PM
I'll go ahead and consider Pujols a reliable source when it comes to judging Bailey's stuff. As far as how that translates to performance, I expect him to do well pretty often -- but as comes with inexperience, he'll have off nights here and there. Consistency comes with time.

Lotta folks seemed convinced he'd fail. I had my doubts too. But at this point I think we can rest easy -- Homer's going to help the Reds. Maybe a solid starter, maybe something more. It's a significant win for the franchise.

And while it's very early to judge, maybe it's a big win (for the future of the orgainzation) that Walt didn't deal him for Dye this offseason.

PuffyPig
07-04-2009, 02:14 PM
We will see, I still remember his very 1st or maybe it was his second outing he was pretty exceptional against the A's a few years ago IIRC and it was all down hill from there.


Bailey has never pitched like this in the majors. This is how he was pitching in the minors lately.

He had a start against the A's in his first year with decent results, but he didn't have the command or breaking pitches he exhibited last night.

Not even close.

And to think early last year some posters where advocating a Votto and Bailey trade for Garko (who was touted as a stud). In fact, someone suggested that would likely not even be enough.

jojo
07-04-2009, 02:22 PM
Here's Homer's night through a pitch f/x prism:



Ave %throw %strike
four seam 93.6 53.4 65.5
change 86.7 17.5 61.1
curve 81.1 23.3 83.3
splitter 88.2 5.8 33.3


Good Homer has command. Bad Homer has none. The question is which Homer is going is going to assume command of his career?

Superdude
07-04-2009, 02:29 PM
I was impressed with his curve last night. He didn't really use it as an outpitch, but he got it over the plate and was a pretty nasty mix pitch to keep guys off the fastball.

11larkin11
07-04-2009, 02:33 PM
Here's Homer's night through a pitch f/x prism:



Ave %throw %strike
four seam 93.6 53.4 65.5
change 86.7 17.5 61.1
curve 81.1 23.3 83.3
splitter 88.2 5.8 33.3


Good Homer has command. Bad Homer has none. The question is which Homer is going is going to assume command of his career?

I was watching the game with GameDay on. The change was the splitter, it just couldn't tell.

dougdirt
07-04-2009, 03:08 PM
Here's Homer's night through a pitch f/x prism:



Ave %throw %strike
four seam 93.6 53.4 65.5
change 86.7 17.5 61.1
curve 81.1 23.3 83.3
splitter 88.2 5.8 33.3


Good Homer has command. Bad Homer has none. The question is which Homer is going is going to assume command of his career?

Your pitch ID's or MLB's? Harry Pavlidis and I are working on cleaning up their ID's for Bailey right now in some emails back and forth with the eyes and the data itself. You are right though, basically it came down to being able to put the ball over the plate.

jojo
07-04-2009, 03:15 PM
Your pitch ID's or MLB's? Harry Pavlidis and I are working on cleaning up their ID's for Bailey right now in some emails back and forth with the eyes and the data itself. You are right though, basically it came down to being able to put the ball over the plate.

Gameday algorithm.....

jojo
07-04-2009, 03:17 PM
wrong thread....

OnBaseMachine
07-04-2009, 04:12 PM
SOME WORDS about Homer Bailey from Albert Pujols: “He threw an unbelievable game. He has electric stuff. He is going to be around a long time.”

Said Bailey, hearing that, “Coming from a guy with his stature, that sinks in deep. Somebody sent that quote to me via e-mail last night. Usually people just send stuff when something bad is said about me.”

http://www.daytondailynews.com/blogs/content/shared-gen/blogs/dayton/cincinnatireds/entries/2009/07/04/to_pitch_or_not_to_pitch_to_pu.html

redsfandan
07-04-2009, 04:49 PM
Said Bailey, hearing that, “... Usually people just send stuff when something bad is said about me.”
Sounds like he needs to not let stuff get to him so much.

SirFelixCat
07-04-2009, 04:57 PM
Sounds like he needs to not let stuff get to him so much.

He still is a young kid, remember that. I think he's growing, not just as a pitcher, but also as a man. good for him!:thumbup:

icehole3
07-04-2009, 05:08 PM
I was impressed with his curve last night. He didn't really use it as an outpitch, but he got it over the plate and was a pretty nasty mix pitch to keep guys off the fastball.

I was too, the Cards were just looking at that thing, to busy trying to figure out that splitter

redsfandan
07-04-2009, 05:17 PM
He still is a young kid, remember that. I think he's growing, not just as a pitcher, but also as a man. good for him!:thumbup:
Yeah I know. It took me a minute to remember being that age. Fortunately he's probably lucky to have Dusty. (did I actually just say that?)

VR
07-04-2009, 05:21 PM
I haven't seen Pujols miss a pitch as badly as he did on that 1st inning K. Just freaky mcnasty on that splitter.

traderumor
07-04-2009, 05:27 PM
SOME WORDS about Homer Bailey from Albert Pujols: “He threw an unbelievable game. He has electric stuff. He is going to be around a long time.”

Said Bailey, hearing that, “Coming from a guy with his stature, that sinks in deep. Somebody sent that quote to me via e-mail last night. Usually people just send stuff when something bad is said about me.”

http://www.daytondailynews.com/blogs/content/shared-gen/blogs/dayton/cincinnatireds/entries/2009/07/04/to_pitch_or_not_to_pitch_to_pu.htmlHopefully he read RZ talking about trusting his stuff that got him to the majors instead of thinking he has to pitch differently than he did in the minors :)

Superdude
07-04-2009, 05:54 PM
Said Bailey, hearing that, “... Usually people just send stuff when something bad is said about me.”

Sounds like he needs to not let stuff get to him so much.

Sounds like he needs friends who aren't as mean

lollipopcurve
07-04-2009, 06:03 PM
Bad Homer has none.

This is wrong. I don't care what information you're using, the game in which he walked 7 was not a case of having "zero command." He was around the zone, and it was a small zone.

Personally, I'm not worried about Bailey having a slew of 7 walk games mixed in with 1-2 walk games. He's not a wild thing by any stretch. Check the minor league numbers for this year to expand the sample size.

kaldaniels
07-04-2009, 06:48 PM
This is wrong. I don't care what information you're using, the game in which he walked 7 was not a case of having "zero command." He was around the zone, and it was a small zone.

Personally, I'm not worried about Bailey having a slew of 7 walk games mixed in with 1-2 walk games. He's not a wild thing by any stretch. Check the minor league numbers for this year to expand the sample size.

What were the 7 walks a case of. Look, I like Bailey and all, but no excuses for that. Whats that? A small strike zone? Adjust your approach son.

It was a poor start which he fortunately wiggled out of with a win. I see no other way to spin it.

Mario-Rijo
07-04-2009, 06:57 PM
What were the 7 walks a case of. Look, I like Bailey and all, but no excuses for that. Whats that? A small strike zone? Adjust your approach son.

It was a poor start which he fortunately wiggled out of with a win. I see no other way to spin it.

Trying to hard and overthrowing everything. Which he started off doing in the 1st last night. Once he faced Pujols and was able to get a little confidence you could see him trusting his stuff and just throwing it. He turned a major corner with that Pujols matchup and subsequent PA's) and it showed for the rest of the game.

OnBaseMachine
07-04-2009, 08:24 PM
“He was aggressive with the fastball in the strike zone,” an American League scout said. “His curveball has always been projectable (to the majors). Everyone talks about split-finger. He uses it more as a change-up. But the fastball is the key.”

Bailey agreed to a degree.

“Yeah, locating the fastball -- and I think with my previous games -- they were gonna be looking first-pitch fastball,” Bailey said. “I knew if I could get a first-pitch breaking ball over I could definitely benefit. Now it’s something else they can look at, and I tried to show them I could throw other pitches for strikes.”

http://news.cincinnati.com/article/20090704/SPT04/307040020/1071/Please+don+t+mortgage+future

jojo
07-04-2009, 10:29 PM
This is wrong. I don't care what information you're using, the game in which he walked 7 was not a case of having "zero command." He was around the zone, and it was a small zone.

Personally, I'm not worried about Bailey having a slew of 7 walk games mixed in with 1-2 walk games. He's not a wild thing by any stretch. Check the minor league numbers for this year to expand the sample size.

Lets assume the first three walks were on blue.... Homer decided to ignore Blue's strikezone on principle for the next four?

Homer's command is an issue until he proves it isn't over a significant stretch. Ninety innings during a third tour of AAA is nice but he shouldve done what he did.

Brutus
07-04-2009, 11:09 PM
Lets assume the first three walks were on blue.... Homer decided to ignore Blue's strikezone on principle for the next four?

Homer's command is an issue until he proves it isn't over a significant stretch. Ninety innings during a third tour of AAA is nice but he shouldve done what he did.

I agree with what you're saying. But to be somewhat fair, Indians pitching also walked five as well. So clearly there was some struggles going on. Tomo Ohka is usually pretty on-target with his command. Even he walked four batters in four innings - and for his career he's walked a very respectable 2.5 batters per nine innings (in 970 innings pitched).

Make no mistake, Homer has to prove his command at the Major League level. That's something he's yet to do with any remote consistency whatsoever. You're dead on the money. However, that 7-walk game was a little bit of an aberration for all parties.

OnBaseMachine
07-08-2009, 11:15 PM
Another great start tonight by Bailey against one of the best offenses in baseball in a bandbox.

6 IP, 7 H, 2 R, 0 BB, 6 K

Six of the hits were singles.

Once again, the Reds pathetic offense and David Weathers blew a much deserved win for Bailey.

HeatherC1212
07-08-2009, 11:21 PM
I would blame the offense more than Stormy because the Reds had a great chance to get the lead in the 7th and couldn't get the run in. Homer left with the score tied so that was more on him but they had some good chances to score and didn't come through. Stormy is going to be Stormy for us and against a team like the Phillies, you can only keep them down for so long before something breaks. GREAT job by Homer though. He has to be encouraged to have another strong outing even though he didn't get the win. :)

lollipopcurve
07-08-2009, 11:21 PM
Zero walks. He had a pretty generous strike zone, but it should be clear to anyone watching closely that Bailey is not going to have chronic control issues.

OnBaseMachine
07-08-2009, 11:30 PM
I would blame the offense more than Stormy because the Reds had a great chance to get the lead in the 7th and couldn't get the run in. Homer left with the score tied so that was more on him but they had some good chances to score and didn't come through. Stormy is going to be Stormy for us and against a team like the Phillies, you can only keep them down for so long before something breaks. GREAT job by Homer though. He has to be encouraged to have another strong outing even though he didn't get the win. :)

I agree...somewhat. Weathers deserves some of the blame (as does Dusty for using him in that situation) but the real blame goes on the offense for scoring two runs against Rodrigo friggin' Lopez, a guy who wasn't exactly tearing up AAA.

SMcGavin
07-08-2009, 11:37 PM
Zero walks. He had a pretty generous strike zone, but it should be clear to anyone watching closely that Bailey is not going to have chronic control issues.

I'm very encouraged by the last two starts. But it would be extremely illogical to toss out Bailey's track record of wildness based on those two starts. Especially considering he walked seven batters in a single game less than two weeks ago.

Why do we always have to make these proclaimations about his future after each start? Can't we just say "great start Homer", then wait to make the judgement about his future until there is actually enough data to come to a reasonable conclusion?

RedEye
07-08-2009, 11:53 PM
Why do we always have to make these proclaimations about his future after each start?

For the same reasons we all ended up here posting on a forum specifically dedicated to the Reds. We love him. And it's a painful love. ;)

Degenerate39
07-09-2009, 12:19 AM
What's his ERA?

Spitball
07-09-2009, 01:19 AM
What's his ERA?

5.16 and hopefully dropping.

dougdirt
07-09-2009, 01:39 AM
I'm very encouraged by the last two starts. But it would be extremely illogical to toss out Bailey's track record of wildness based on those two starts. Especially considering he walked seven batters in a single game less than two weeks ago.

Why do we always have to make these proclaimations about his future after each start? Can't we just say "great start Homer", then wait to make the judgement about his future until there is actually enough data to come to a reasonable conclusion?

Given all that he has been through, his track record in 2009 is a lot more important than his track record prior to 2009. 2009 has seen his control be on a different playing field than ever before.

jojo
07-09-2009, 08:03 AM
I'm very encouraged by the last two starts. But it would be extremely illogical to toss out Bailey's track record of wildness based on those two starts. Especially considering he walked seven batters in a single game less than two weeks ago.

Why do we always have to make these proclaimations about his future after each start? Can't we just say "great start Homer", then wait to make the judgement about his future until there is actually enough data to come to a reasonable conclusion?

Exactly.

lollipopcurve
07-09-2009, 08:16 AM
The minor league track record is not monolithic. How can you possibly ignore the fact that Bailey has been learning new stuff all the way through? It's called development -- learning. He's not the same guy he was before. Refined, more repeatable delivery. Refinement of secondary pitches. The basics. All young pitchers go through the process -- some profit by it and become better, others can't assimilate it all. Anyone who has watched Bailey over the years can easily see that he has much better command of ALL of his pitches now -- fastball, curve, slider. The splitter is new, but he's OK with it, not great (it will get better). The changeup seems to have been shelved. The evidence is plain -- he has gained skill.

A kid who goes from an average student in elementary school to an excellent student in high school tends not to revert to being average. I would expect the same from Bailey -- especially now that, at least according to reports, he's got his head together, too.

He will have bad starts, starts where he walks too many. All pitchers do. But the skill set is sufficient now that it won't be a chronic problem, unless physical problems crop up.

jojo
07-09-2009, 08:27 AM
The minor league track record is not monolithic. How can you possibly ignore the fact that Bailey has been learning new stuff all the way through? It's called development -- learning. He's not the same guy he was before. Refined, more repeatable delivery. Refinement of secondary pitches. The basics. All young pitchers go through the process -- some profit by it and become better, others can't assimilate it all. Anyone who has watched Bailey over the years can easily see that he has much better command of ALL of his pitches now -- fastball, curve, slider. The splitter is new, but he's OK with it, not great (it will get better). The changeup seems to have been shelved. The evidence is plain -- he has gained skill.

A kid who goes from an average student in elementary school to an excellent student in high school tends not to revert to being average. I would expect the same from Bailey -- especially now that, at least according to reports, he's got his head together, too.

He will have bad starts, starts where he walks too many. All pitchers do. But the skill set is sufficient now that it won't be a chronic problem, unless physical problems crop up.

No one is ignoring anything. This isn't an epic battle between good and evil. Some are just saying, "lets see how this plays out as some innings build up"....

Homer was impressive last night...in a hitters environment against a good line up. He commanded his fastball and his curve and had solid velocity.

That said, it seems reasonable for someone to pause a bit before they get a Homer Bailey tattoo on their bicep....

lollipopcurve
07-09-2009, 08:30 AM
No one is ignoring anything.

Haven't seen you say a single thing about development or his stuff. It's all about the numbers.


This isn't an epic battle between good and evil.

Who said it was? Classic way to minimize another's argument by overstating its claims.


That said, it seems reasonable for someone to pause a bit before they get a Homer Bailey tattoo on their bicep....

More or less a personal attack. :rolleyes:

jojo
07-09-2009, 08:36 AM
Haven't seen you say a single thing about development or his stuff. It's all about the numbers.

I've probably written 10,000 words on Homer since joining redszone. I was championing the notion that it wasn't impossible for Homer to develop better command when championing the notion that it wasn't impossible for Homer to develop better command wasn't cool.....


Who said it was? Classic way to minimize another's argument by overstating its claims.

My point was simply this- the discussion is being framed as a back or white issue that in my view is inappropriate.


More or less a personal attack. :rolleyes:

It wasn't even anywhere close to a personal attack.

lollipopcurve
07-09-2009, 08:45 AM
I've probably written 10,000 words on Homer since joining redszone. I was championing the notion that it wasn't impossible for Homer to develop better command when championing the notion that it wasn't impossible for Homer to develop better command wasn't cool.....

And then you had him on the precipice of a minor league career after a single start.


My point was simply this- the discussion is being framed as a back or white issue that in my view is inappropriate.

You're the one who implied he could be headed for a minor league career -- based on a blunt interpretation of a single stat from a single start. And you're calling out others for not being nuanced enough?

If you had been more fair in your initial evaluation of Bailey since his call-up, you wouldn't be having this problem. But, the way I see it, you're simply not seeing what some of us are seeing. And that is, that Bailey can be trusted with a major league rotation spot now. Doesn't mean it will always be smooth -- it never is -- but, in the common parlance, he has "arrived." This is no from-the-mount claim, but it is a significant one, given the struggles Bailey has endured. And it's something you have been unable to see.

jojo
07-09-2009, 09:17 AM
And then you had him on the precipice of a minor league career after a single start.

You're the one who implied he could be headed for a minor league career -- based on a blunt interpretation of a single stat from a single start. And you're calling out others for not being nuanced enough?

That is such a gross mischaracterization of my comments that it makes discussion impossible.


If you had been more fair in your initial evaluation of Bailey since his call-up, you wouldn't be having this problem. But, the way I see it, you're simply not seeing what some of us are seeing.

Once again, you're calling the construct in your mind "jojo", but it's not my argument.

Roy Tucker
07-09-2009, 09:29 AM
I must say, I was impressed with Homer last night against a very tough Phillie lineup. The biggest thing to me was no walks. This is about version 3.2 of Homer, but what I see now seems a legit MLB starter.

I think the future is bright for Homer and the rest of the Reds' young starters. If they could only score some runs.

nate
07-09-2009, 09:38 AM
I'm very encouraged by the last two starts. But it would be extremely illogical to toss out Bailey's track record of wildness based on those two starts. Especially considering he walked seven batters in a single game less than two weeks ago.

Why do we always have to make these proclaimations about his future after each start? Can't we just say "great start Homer", then wait to make the judgement about his future until there is actually enough data to come to a reasonable conclusion?

An excellent observation.

Patrick Bateman
07-09-2009, 11:22 AM
I think the most impressive thing is that these 2 last starts from Bailey was just a continuation of what he had been doing in the minors for the last month plus. This was the first time where he was called up because he deserved to, so to me, it's hardly shocking that he's come up and continued the success. It may be just 2 major league starts, but the way he was pitching in the minors had suggested that he could do it in the majors too, just based on projections.

I personally think the guy is ready to be a legit MLB starter, and perhaps a very good one.

Hoosier Red
07-09-2009, 12:00 PM
I must say, I was impressed with Homer last night against a very tough Phillie lineup. The biggest thing to me was no walks. This is about version 3.2 of Homer, but what I see now seems a legit MLB starter.

I think the future is bright for Homer and the rest of the Reds' young starters. If they could only score some runs.

Well it should be noted, made giving up a walk pretty difficult.

Still, hard not to be encouraged by the last two starts.

MWM
07-09-2009, 03:40 PM
I'm very encouraged by the last two starts. But it would be extremely illogical to toss out Bailey's track record of wildness based on those two starts. Especially considering he walked seven batters in a single game less than two weeks ago.

Why do we always have to make these proclaimations about his future after each start? Can't we just say "great start Homer", then wait to make the judgement about his future until there is actually enough data to come to a reasonable conclusion?

Welcome to the interwebs.

You can set your watch to it here. Someone has a good couple of starts and he's now an all star and threads get bumped that questioned said players future. A guy has a good week, and the trade that brought him here was now a work of genius and anyone who questioned said trade is scoffed at for their lack of faith.

Homer does "look" different than when I've seen him before. These last couple of games are clearly not random luck. There's something different. Whether it's sustainable will be the ultimate question. Talent has never been the question with Homer. What's between the ears was always going to determine his future.

Chip R
07-09-2009, 04:00 PM
Some of you need to take your discussion level down a notch or two. If you can't play nice, don't play at all.

RedEye
07-09-2009, 08:41 PM
That said, it seems reasonable for someone to pause a bit before they get a Homer Bailey tattoo on their bicep....

What about a huge deer head tattoo across your back? Is it too early for that? :D

jojo
07-09-2009, 08:46 PM
What about a huge deer head tattoo across your back? Is it too early for that? :D

It's never too early to do that.

dougdirt
07-10-2009, 09:35 PM
Bored while watching the Reds game and decided to dive into Homer's last two starts with some Pitch F/X stuff. I wanted to look at the fastball and the splitter. Now I just want to note that I don't use the MLB pitch classifications, so if anyone else has looked into it, my data my be slightly different than yours because I have more 'splitters' than you will because MLB doesn't do a very good job of classifying pitches just yet.

Anyways, here is what I came up with:


last Pitch #Thrown
Bailey FA (95+) 53
Bailey FA (92-94) 52
Bailey FA (<91) 15
Bailey Splitter 13


Here is what they look like (average)
http://redsminorleagues.com/images/bailey1bview.gif
Whether Homer is throwing a 92-94 MPH fastball or a 95-98 MPH fastball, it moves exactly the same. The 2 seamer gets a little more sink on it like you would expect, but its not really noticable until the last 10-15 feet before it reaches the plate. The splitter gets even more sink on it than the 2 seamer does and kind of 'drops off' so to speak.

http://redsminorleagues.com/images/baileybirdseye.gif
It looks like the 2 seamer is almost a cutter. The 92-94 and 95+ fastballs move the same from this angle as well. The splitter however moves in the opposite direction (in to lefties and away from righties) as the fastballs do.

Anyways, just wanted to add it to the discussion because I had the data and thought it would worth throwing in here.

jojo
07-10-2009, 09:38 PM
Bored while watching the Reds game and decided to dive into Homer's last two starts with some Pitch F/X stuff. I wanted to look at the fastball and the splitter. Now I just want to note that I don't use the MLB pitch classifications, so if anyone else has looked into it, my data my be slightly different than yours because I have more 'splitters' than you will because MLB doesn't do a very good job of classifying pitches just yet.

Anyways, here is what I came up with:


last Pitch #Thrown
Bailey FA (95+) 53
Bailey FA (92-94) 52
Bailey FA (<91) 15
Bailey Splitter 13


Here is what they look like (average)
http://redsminorleagues.com/images/bailey1bview.gif
Whether Homer is throwing a 92-94 MPH fastball or a 95-98 MPH fastball, it moves exactly the same. The 2 seamer gets a little more sink on it like you would expect, but its not really noticable until the last 10-15 feet before it reaches the plate. The splitter gets even more sink on it than the 2 seamer does and kind of 'drops off' so to speak.

http://redsminorleagues.com/images/baileybirdseye.gif
It looks like the 2 seamer is almost a cutter. The 92-94 and 95+ fastballs move the same from this angle as well. The splitter however moves in the opposite direction (in to lefties and away from righties) as the fastballs do.

Anyways, just wanted to add it to the discussion because I had the data and thought it would worth throwing in here.

Thanks for sharing Doug.

One thing that jumps out at ya immediately is that 40% of his pitches were 95+......

nate
07-10-2009, 09:47 PM
Nice post, Doug. Interesting stuff. He sure seems to be throwing hard.

GoReds
07-10-2009, 09:55 PM
I don't get a chance to watch many games, but I did watch Homer's last start. Can anyone find out how many times Homer started a batter with strike 1? Seemed like he would consistently go 1-0 or 2-0 and then have to battle back. He did this well, but it was concerning.

OnBaseMachine
07-16-2009, 10:14 PM
Bad outing tonight by Homer. The stuff was there but his location wasn't as sharp as it was in his previous two starts. It didn't help either that the ump had a strikezone the size of a pop can. He and Looper were squeezed a lot but Homer missed his location quite a bit too. It also didn't help that Johnny Gomes is a statue in RF and EdE had a brain cramp on a groundball to 3B. I was still impressed with his stuff. There will be starts are like this. I didn't expect him to pitch well in every start.

reds44
07-16-2009, 10:15 PM
He's not very good, but people can keep making excuses for him while he continues to get lit up.

OnBaseMachine
07-16-2009, 10:16 PM
Did you watch his last two starts? I'm guessing no. He pitched two great games against first place clubs and looked dominant at times. With better defense in the 6th inning we're talking about Bailey having a decent start. He was far from good tonight but I thought he pitched a little better than his final line indicates.

reds44
07-16-2009, 10:17 PM
Did you watch every other start he's ever made?

OnBaseMachine
07-16-2009, 10:19 PM
I honestly could care less about what he did in the past. He was very young and a different pitcher back then, not to mention he was rushed to the majors and clearly wasn't ready. I'm focusing on the present Homer Bailey, the 23-year old throwing 96 mph bullets with a nice curve and splitter.

lollipopcurve
07-16-2009, 10:20 PM
Fastball command was off, but curve is looking good. Not seeing the split do much -- would like to see more of what the fuss was about there. Just keep running him out there. He's got a nice ceiling.

reds44
07-16-2009, 10:21 PM
Now are you focusing on the ACTUAL present Homer Bailey, or are you just going to cherry pick his two good starts?

2009 Homer Bailey has a 6.43 ERA with as many walks as strikeouts. Slice it anyway you want to, but that sucks.

RedsManRick
07-16-2009, 11:51 PM
Bailey reminds me a lot of Edwin Jackson from a few years back. Came up way too early. Always had electric stuff but nibbled. Finally started pounding the strike zone and has turned in to an excellent pitcher in stop #3 in Detroit.

M2
07-17-2009, 12:16 AM
Let's play name that pitcher (no cheating by using the Internets to find the answers).

1. 8/9/91 - 7 IP, 2 H, 1 R (unearned), 1 BB, 8 K, game score - 78

2. 9/29/93 - 9 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 4 BB, 4 K, game score - 85

3. 5/10/95 - 9 IP, 2 H, 0 R, 2 BB, 3 K, game score - 84

4. 6/28/95 - 7 IP, 3 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 4 K, game score - 75

5. 6/16/96 - 9 IP, 4 H, 0 R, 1 BB, 5 K, game score - 83

6. 4/8/00 - 7 IP, 3 H, 3 R (1 earned), 2 BB, 9 K, game score - 70

7. 7/26/03 - 9 IP, 5 H, 3 R, 2 BB, 10 K, game score - 73

8. 6/11/05 - 8 IP, 3 H, 1 R, 1, BB, 5 K, game score - 76

9. 6/14/06 - 8 IP, 5 H, 0 R, 1 BB, 10 K, game score - 81

Numbers 1 and 6 were major league debuts. In terms of game score, Homer Bailey has never had one major league start as good as any of the performances listed above. I'll let people guess the names, but the point is it's not uncommon for a young pitcher to have a momentary flourish and then amount to nothing.

*BaseClogger*
07-17-2009, 12:25 AM
Is #8 Zach Duke? Just a guess (didn't cheat!)...

M2
07-17-2009, 12:27 AM
Is #8 Zach Duke? Just a guess (didn't cheat!)...

Nope. I'll give you a hint. They were all Reds pitchers.

*BaseClogger*
07-17-2009, 12:30 AM
I watched #9. It was Elizardo Ramirez...

Boss-Hog
07-17-2009, 12:35 AM
Let's play name that pitcher (no cheating by using the Internets to find the answers).

1. 8/9/91 - 7 IP, 2 H, 1 R (unearned), 1 BB, 8 K, game score - 78

2. 9/29/93 - 9 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 4 BB, 4 K, game score - 85

3. 5/10/95 - 9 IP, 2 H, 0 R, 2 BB, 3 K, game score - 84

4. 6/28/95 - 7 IP, 3 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 4 K, game score - 75

5. 6/16/96 - 9 IP, 4 H, 0 R, 1 BB, 5 K, game score - 83

6. 4/8/00 - 7 IP, 3 H, 3 R (1 earned), 2 BB, 9 K, game score - 70

7. 7/26/03 - 9 IP, 5 H, 3 R, 2 BB, 10 K, game score - 73

8. 6/11/05 - 8 IP, 3 H, 1 R, 1, BB, 5 K, game score - 76

9. 6/14/06 - 8 IP, 5 H, 0 R, 1 BB, 10 K, game score - 81

Numbers 1 and 6 were major league debuts. In terms of game score, Homer Bailey has never had one major league start as good as any of the performances listed above. I'll let people guess the names, but the point is it's not uncommon for a young pitcher to have a momentary flourish and then amount to nothing.
#6 is Rob Bell, right?

M2
07-17-2009, 12:38 AM
#6 is Rob Bell, right?

Well played. Indeed it was.

KoryMac5
07-17-2009, 12:46 AM
I think number #1 was Mo Sanford as I was in basic training and my Dad sent me the box score from his game.

Tornon
07-17-2009, 12:46 AM
Was #7 the Philly fight game with Jimmy Haynes? and was #8 Todd Van Poppel?

OnBaseMachine
07-17-2009, 02:34 AM
Homer Bailey started out OK even after hitting his first batter of the game, allowing two walks in the second and even Prince Fielder's three-run homer in the third. What wasn't OK were the two walks he issued to Ryan Braun and Fielder in the five-run, 10-batter Brewers sixth inning. Those were killer.

"He was trying to challenge them but wasn't finding the strike zone in that inning," manager Dusty Baker said. "They're pretty good hitters. That was a tough inning right there, a real tough inning."

Bailey pitched 5 1/3 innings and gave up a career-high seven earned runs and six hits. He walked four and struck out three. Many of the hits, other than Fielder's, weren't crushed. Nick Masset took over in the sixth and let all of his inherited runners home on a groundball up the middle and a broken bat single -- not overwhelming but damaging all the same.

http://marksheldon.mlblogs.com/

If everything in baseball evens out then the Reds should start getting some breaks soon. Dating back to the second game in New York, every blooper/47 hopper has found a hole. The Reds are playing like crap right now but they've had a lot of bad luck lately too. Chris Welsh said the same thing.

icehole3
07-17-2009, 05:35 AM
he didnt have the great fastball, hopefully he'll get it back in his next start, he needs the learn the guys in the majors, no more minor leagues

Chip R
07-17-2009, 10:17 AM
Homer Bailey started out OK even after hitting his first batter of the game, allowing two walks in the second and even Prince Fielder's three-run homer in the third. What wasn't OK were the two walks he issued to Ryan Braun and Fielder in the five-run, 10-batter Brewers sixth inning. Those were killer.


Other than that, Mrs. Lincoln, how was the play?

M2
07-17-2009, 10:20 AM
Was #7 the Philly fight game with Jimmy Haynes? and was #8 Todd Van Poppel?

No and no.

#1 was Mo Sanford, who at that point seemed a sure thing.

bucksfan2
07-17-2009, 10:28 AM
I have never seen a pitcher illicit such a reaction as Homer does. The guy is still growing and developing as a pitcher. He had some good movement on his pitches last night just struggled a little bit with his location. I was actually surprised that the Milwaukee hitters were laying off some of Bailey's good pitches that were just out of the zone.

I didn't expect a good outing from Homer tonight. The Mil lineup is tough. There aren't many better 3-4 hitters than Braun and Fielder. He would have had to have pinpoint control last night and that is a lot to expect out of Homer. The guy has got the stuff and it is starting to click, he just needs to be given time and to learn from outings like last night. It also would have helped if the left side of the infield knew what the heck they were doing.

lollipopcurve
07-17-2009, 10:39 AM
but the point is it's not uncommon for a young pitcher to have a momentary flourish and then amount to nothing

This is true. But for all we've seen from Bailey, I think it's farfetched to suggest he'll amount to nothing.

Bailey had a game in 6/07 with a game score of 68 (7 innings, 2 hits, 1 run). He was 21. Not as good as the scores listed, but in the neighborhood. Any of us who have watched him closely would agree, I think, that he is a better pitcher now. More pitches, better fastball command, much better curve command, wiser and more composed. And he's 23 now. How many of the games listed were pitched by guys younger than that?

He's made a huge leap forward this year. The stuff looks good, better than ever. Why hang him over the abyss by his ankles?

M2
07-17-2009, 11:14 AM
He's made a huge leap forward this year. The stuff looks good, better than ever. Why hang him over the abyss by his ankles?

My take is he's got years to figure it out, provided he stays healthy. Whether he figures it out with the Reds is another question altogether.

I was pointing out that guys who turn out to be not such great pitchers in the final analysis do exhibit flashes of enormous promise. It's not that Bailey doesn't have talent, it's that a lot of talented kids don't make it. Bailey's got to establish some consistency at this level (something he was just starting to do at AAA). He's also got to learn how to bounce back from a whipping. Homer's been prone to getting into a negative groove.

Falls City Beer
07-17-2009, 11:25 AM
When it comes to pitchers succeeding in the majors: the abyss stares back.

westofyou
07-17-2009, 11:33 AM
I have never seen a pitcher illicit such a reaction as Homer does. The guy is still growing and developing as a pitcher. He had some good movement on his pitches last night just struggled a little bit with his location
http://danmahan.com/autos/uploaded_images/1983_topps_berenyi-704658.jpg

lollipopcurve
07-17-2009, 11:35 AM
My take is he's got years to figure it out, provided he stays healthy. Whether he figures it out with the Reds is another question altogether.

I was pointing out that guys who turn out to be not such great pitchers in the final analysis do exhibit flashes of enormous promise. It's not that Bailey doesn't have talent, it's that a lot of talented kids don't make it. Bailey's got to establish some consistency at this level (something he was just starting to do at AAA). He's also got to learn how to bounce back from a whipping. Homer's been prone to getting into a negative groove.

My sense is that he has already bounced back from years of whippings. Last year was particularly bad. I think a baseline resilience has been established.

As you note, he was finding consistency in AAA. A reasonable debate could be had over whether he was promoted too quickly. His performance this year will go some of the way to answering that. In particular, the much-celebrated split appears to have fallen off the table, so to speak, since his elevation to the Reds. I find that curious. Is it a pitching coach issue? My sense is that Pole wanted him to be more of a sinker-slider guy, and while the slider has become a semi-useful pitch for him, and the two-seam may too, I think it is significant that he has rediscovered success as more of what he was when he was young -- a four-seam/curveball guy. And in that vein, if the split came to fruition under Power's watch, does its near-disappearance have anything to do with Dick Pole?

My evaluation right now is that Bailey needs the split to be more than a mid-rotation guy. The plus fastball and curve can make him league average, and there's nothing wrong with that. On nights he commands both well, he'll breeze. But that 3rd plus pitch -- the split, I hope -- can be the swing and miss pitch he needs to get to the next level.

So, yes, much still lies in the balance, but I've got his floor many stories higher than I did coming into the year.

M2
07-17-2009, 12:04 PM
My sense is that he has already bounced back from years of whippings. Last year was particularly bad. I think a baseline resilience has been established.

I'd say that remains to be seen.


My evaluation right now is that Bailey needs the split to be more than a mid-rotation guy. The plus fastball and curve can make him league average, and there's nothing wrong with that. On nights he commands both well, he'll breeze. But that 3rd plus pitch -- the split, I hope -- can be the swing and miss pitch he needs to get to the next level.

I think the splitter is crucial for him to make it at all. IMO, his heater's not plus without it. My definition of a plus fastball is one that can beat hitters even when they're sitting on it. In fact, one of the things that seems to dispirit Homer at the major league level is that his heater gets hit. That's probably due to command more than quality, but you can't anticipate the command automatically will come.

lollipopcurve
07-17-2009, 12:35 PM
I think the splitter is crucial for him to make it at all. IMO, his heater's not plus without it. My definition of a plus fastball is one that can beat hitters even when they're sitting on it. In fact, one of the things that seems to dispirit Homer at the major league level is that his heater gets hit. That's probably due to command more than quality, but you can't anticipate the command automatically will come.

The fastball is not dominant, that's for sure. But it's easily hard enough (93-96 is plus, all day), and with just enough movement, that if he commands it well hitters will have trouble with it. Note the way he sawed off Braun in the first inning last night. That's a great fastball hitter. The curve has really emerged as a pitch he can throw for strikes. Admittedly, some umps will squeeze curveballs into a pinhole, and on nights one of those guys is calling the plate, Bailey will face an uphill battle. But, overall, it appears to be plus all the way. He's got enough other looks now -- the slider and 2-seam, to keep guys off balance. Maybe the change gets resurrected at some point, too, who knows. When he was up as a 21-year-old, he had 2 pitches only -- and he couldn't command the curve. Hitters started laying off the curve, he couldn't get it called for strikes, and he was toast. Now, he's got enough to survive and, sometimes, thrive, in my estimation. The real question is how much more improvement can he muster. I'm somewhat optimistic, since he has shown a lot of growth already. It's the ability to learn and make adjustments that separates athletes at that level, and I think he shows a lot of promise in that regard (after having been quite obstinate, apparently, in his younger years). I don't think he's as strong as he will get, either. Increased strength should help him avoid tiring and losing some command in the middle/late innings.

I see no way he washes out, barring injury.

Falls City Beer
07-17-2009, 12:56 PM
I see no way he washes out, barring injury.

I don't see how anyone could say that about a pitcher.

lollipopcurve
07-17-2009, 12:58 PM
I don't see how anyone could say that about a pitcher.

Depends on your definition of washing out, I guess.