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Kingspoint
07-04-2009, 06:04 PM
Jeff Sagarin MLB ratings

Copyright 2009. Jeff Sagarintm. All rights reserved.

2009 National League Batters thru games of July 3 Friday

__________________________________________________ _____________________
BATTERS ARE LISTED IN THREE TIERS: (all batters are now listed)

(A) at least 3.1 plate appearances * average number of games played per team (currently 87 NL players fit this)
(B) between 1 and 3.1 plate appearances per game * average number of games played per team (currently 104 NL players fit this)
(C) between 0 and 1 plate appearances * average number of games played per team (currently 278 NL players fit this)

the headings over and within each tier tell how many plate appearances
the batters in that particular tier have

predicted RPG = predicted runs/game of entire lineup of given player
It takes into account all of the player's offensive
statistics such as W (noting IW), HBP SB CS SH SF
as well as the normal S D T and HR.
And of equal importance it takes into account the
total OUTS made, including SO.

This is the best REAL-LIFE measure of the player's true OFFENSIVE VALUE per Jeff Sagarin.


If Dusty just played the player from Tier B as much as he did the ones who suck in Tier A, we wouldn't need to go out looking for a bat.

Current REDS rankings:

Tier A (out of 87) 245 or more PA's:

#41 Phillips @ 5.30 RPG
#57 Bruce @ 4.77 RPG
#63 Hernandez @ 4.49 RPG
#64 Hairston @ 4.39 RPG
#84 Taveras @ 3.09 RPG

Tier B (out of 104) 80 to 244 PA's:

#2 Votto @ 10.05 RPG
#3 Gomes @ 9.22 RPG
#13 Hanigan @ 6.79 RPG
#21 Dickerson @ 5.71 RPG
#36 Nix @ 4.86 RPG
#90 Janish @ 2.82 RPG
#95 Rosales @ 2.65 RPG
#98 Gonzalez @ 2.42 RPG (If he wasn't injured, Dusty would be playing him, too.)

Tier C (out of 278) 79 or fewer PA's:

#2 Castillo @ 30.52 RPG
#25 Herrera @ 7.67 RPG
#47 Owings @ 5.01 RPG
#73 Richar @ 3.13 RPG
#87 Encarnacion @ 2.51 RPG
#100 McDonald @ 1.87 RPG
#113 Maloney @ 1.51 RPG
#127 Arroyo @ 1.27 RPG
#148 Cueto @ .75 RPG
#149 Harang @ .73 RPG
#194 Volquez @ .07 RPG
#213 Ramirez @ .01 RPG
#216 Sutton @ .01 RPG
#224 Bailey @ .01 RPG
#265 Lincoln @ .00 RPG
#276 Rhodes @ .00 RPG

mroby85
07-04-2009, 07:01 PM
I really hope this is a joke. Stats can be taken waaaaaaaaaay too far in my opinion. Some players aren't made to start, look at Rosales and the way he started compared to when he had played every day for awhile. The Reds have had a plethora of players like this, chris stynes, ryan freel, jerry hairston is one I think. Stats can't be taken so literally sometimes, it's not as easy as looking at numbers and putting people in that spot, if it was, anyone could manage and everyone would be great at it. Whoever had the best players would ALWAYS win.

Mutaman
07-04-2009, 09:22 PM
We've got a manager and coaching staff that have put together a young relativly inexperienced and injury ridden team that can suffer a devestating loss like they did last night, and come back a few hours later and just stick it to LaRussa and Albert. I sorry all you Dusty bashers but that counts a heck of a lot more than whether one of our starters is in tier A or tier B and who bats where in the batting order.

Kingspoint
07-05-2009, 04:48 PM
I really hope this is a joke. Stats can be taken waaaaaaaaaay too far in my opinion. Some players aren't made to start, look at Rosales and the way he started compared to when he had played every day for awhile. The Reds have had a plethora of players like this, chris stynes, ryan freel, jerry hairston is one I think. Stats can't be taken so literally sometimes, it's not as easy as looking at numbers and putting people in that spot, if it was, anyone could manage and everyone would be great at it. Whoever had the best players would ALWAYS win.

Whoever has the best players usually wins.

Kingspoint
07-05-2009, 05:18 PM
Keep in mind, these are food for thought posts.

Someone else's rankings, who actually gets paid money for the last 20 years to do his rankings.

jimbo
07-05-2009, 05:24 PM
Whoever has the best players usually wins.

You do realize that most of the hitters you claim should be starting every game have the good numbers they have because they are selectively playing when they have the best chances to succeed? Such as platooning righties against lefties and vice versa, for example. Guys like Nix, Gomes, Janish, and Dickerson would not put up as consistent numbers if they played everyday. Dickerson maybe someday, but not quite yet.

Hanigan is the only one you might have a solid argument for, although I think Hernandez does a nice job with the pitchers and has a solid bat, so Hanigan would not be the difference maker, IMO.

I just don't like the idea that players with a track record should lose their job everytime a role player gets on a hot streak. You start doing that and you suddenly lose the trust between players and manager.

The Reds need a solid, everyday, proven bat in the lineup. Replacing starters with likes of Nix, Janish, etc. will do nothing to help.

sivman17
07-05-2009, 09:35 PM
how cares about "predicted" stats. the fact of the matter is these players aren't producing. i don't care if the whole team is "predicted" to score 20 runs a game. what matters is how many they score, which isn't many

mrherd05
07-06-2009, 11:18 AM
Hanigan has 8 RBIS in about half the at bats that Hernandez does, Ramon has 33. Hanigan has a good average but cannot hit with RISP.

BLEEDS
07-06-2009, 12:40 PM
Hanigan has 8 RBIS in about half the at bats that Hernandez does, Ramon has 33. Hanigan has a good average but cannot hit with RISP.

Well possibly because Hanigan is batting with the pitcher behind him 90% of the time, they will not pitch to him with RISP.

Ramon has hit 5/6/7 and even 4th, because, as sad as it is to state, he was at the time the best alternatives we had there. He's only batted 8th 11 times.

PEACE

-BLEEDS

Ohioballplayer
07-06-2009, 01:18 PM
I really hope this is a joke. Stats can be taken waaaaaaaaaay too far in my opinion. Some players aren't made to start, look at Rosales and the way he started compared to when he had played every day for awhile. The Reds have had a plethora of players like this, chris stynes, ryan freel, jerry hairston is one I think. Stats can't be taken so literally sometimes, it's not as easy as looking at numbers and putting people in that spot, if it was, anyone could manage and everyone would be great at it. Whoever had the best players would ALWAYS win.

You know I agree with you totally on this, Stats are so far out of hand it is ridiculous. I mean cmon, it takes the people batting before and after you to help make your offensive stats come alive (unless you are Pujols) even then Larussa probably says I need so and so to protect Albert in the lineup.

Captain Hook
07-06-2009, 01:37 PM
Stats?Who cares about stats?Its just plain stupid to look at stats when your considering a lineup.All of you are just wasting your time looking up all of these meaningless stats.They mean nothing compared to the years of experience that Dusty Baker has in the baseball world.Just trust him.Stop all of this complaining and let the toothpick do his thing.

sivman17
07-06-2009, 05:22 PM
Hanigan has 8 RBIS in about half the at bats that Hernandez does, Ramon has 33. Hanigan has a good average but cannot hit with RISP.

hernandez has 73 PA with RISP, hanigan only has 30. if you want to compare stats, hanigan is batting .375 with RISP and 2 outs while ramon is only batting .300. face it, hanigan is a much better hitter than hernandez and a better fielder in my opinion

kfm
07-06-2009, 06:18 PM
You do realize that most of the hitters you claim should be starting every game have the good numbers they have because they are selectively playing when they have the best chances to succeed? Such as platooning righties against lefties and vice versa, for example. Guys like Nix, Gomes, Janish, and Dickerson would not put up as consistent numbers if they played everyday. Dickerson maybe someday, but not quite yet.

Hanigan is the only one you might have a solid argument for, although I think Hernandez does a nice job with the pitchers and has a solid bat, so Hanigan would not be the difference maker, IMO.

I just don't like the idea that players with a track record should lose their job everytime a role player gets on a hot streak. You start doing that and you suddenly lose the trust between players and manager.

The Reds need a solid, everyday, proven bat in the lineup. Replacing starters with likes of Nix, Janish, etc. will do nothing to help.

Great post!!!!

mrherd05
07-06-2009, 06:23 PM
hernandez has 73 PA with RISP, hanigan only has 30. if you want to compare stats, hanigan is batting .375 with RISP and 2 outs while ramon is only batting .300. face it, hanigan is a much better hitter than hernandez and a better fielder in my opinion

So Ramon has four times the number of RBI's with a little over two times the opportunities.

GIDP
07-06-2009, 06:33 PM
Hernandez has batted 8th a total of 11 times this year. Hanigan has only hit higher than 7th 9 times this year.

It certainly matters where you bat in the order when it comes to what type of pitches you get.

Kingspoint
07-07-2009, 03:08 PM
You do realize that most of the hitters you claim should be starting every game have the good numbers they have because they are selectively playing when they have the best chances to succeed? Such as platooning righties against lefties and vice versa, for example. Guys like Nix, Gomes, Janish, and Dickerson would not put up as consistent numbers if they played everyday. Dickerson maybe someday, but not quite yet.

Hanigan is the only one you might have a solid argument for, although I think Hernandez does a nice job with the pitchers and has a solid bat, so Hanigan would not be the difference maker, IMO.

I just don't like the idea that players with a track record should lose their job everytime a role player gets on a hot streak. You start doing that and you suddenly lose the trust between players and manager.

The Reds need a solid, everyday, proven bat in the lineup. Replacing starters with likes of Nix, Janish, etc. will do nothing to help.

Well here's who I've claimed should be starting for a long time now: The others can continue to sit.

CF Dickerson
C Hanigan
1B Votto
2B Phillips
3B Encarnacion
RF Bruce
LF platoon of Gomes/Nix
SS Janish

UI Sutton
UO/I Hairston
C Hernandez
PR/PH (pinch-bunter) Taveras
UO Gomes/Nix

TC81190
07-07-2009, 03:50 PM
C Hanigan
1B Votto
2B Phillips
3B Encarnacion
SS Hairston
LF Gomes/Nix
CF Dickerson
RF Bruce

I assume that is our offense-optimal lineup. As it stands, the whole OF could stand to be upgraded. I'm not a fan of platoons, I would rather have one player I could plug in and get consistent production day in and out. Dickerson is passable I guess in CF, but as nothing more than an average bat. I also feel like he can be gotten out by a good pitcher rather easily sometimes. Bruce you can count on improving eventually, but I don't think you can count on him this year at all.

SS has an OK bat there with Hairston, but could also be upgraded, not to mention the D you're giving away by playing him there. Edwin has been discussed at length. I don't think he is a player you can plug in and rely on everyday, and again, his D is awful

By my count that's 5 of our 8 everyday positions that could and should be upgraded.