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Kingspoint
07-04-2009, 06:22 PM
Jeff Sagarin MLB ratings

Copyright 2009. Jeff Sagarintm. All rights reserved.

2009 National League Pitchers thru games of July 3 Friday

__________________________________________________ _____________________
PITCHERS ARE LISTED IN THREE TIERS: (all pitchers are now listed)

(A) at least 1.0 innings * average number of games played per team
(B) between (1/3) and 1.0 innings * average number of games played per team
(C) between 0 and (1/3) innings * average number of games played per team

the headings over and within each tier tell how many innings pitched
the pitchers in that particular tier have

predicted ERA = what the pitcher's ERA "should be" (NPERA) given his
raw statistics NORMALIZED to composite major league
play of 1946-1999

this is the best REAL-LIFE measure of the pitcher's true PITCHING VALUE

MARKOV CHAIN analysis is the mathematical technique used

an average pitcher will have a NORMALIZED predicted ERA of 3.87

if the pitchers are NORMALIZED, that means that their predicted ERA's
are what they would have achieved if they had pitched in the
hypothetical composite major leagues of 1946-1999.


Markov Chain NPERA represents REAL-LIFE pitching value per Sagarin.

Tier A (out of 52 NL Pitchers) 79 or more IP:

#11 Cueto NPERA @ 3.15; Actual ERA @ 2.69
#32 Harang NPERA @ 4.09; Actual ERA @ 3.86
#41 Owings NPERA @ 4.44; Actual ERA @ 4.63
#49 Arroyo NPERA @ 5.34; Actual ERA @ 5.69

Tier B (out of 113 NL Pitchers) 26 to 78 IP:

#2 Masset NPERA @ 1.32; Actual ERA @ 1.69
#12 Rhodes NPERA @ 1.94; Actual ERA @ 1.95
#16 Cordero NPERA @ 2.33; Actual ERA @ 1.85
#25 Weathers NPERA @ 2.75; Actual ERA @ 2.63
#38 Herrera NPERA @ 3.14; Actual ERA @ 1.97
#54 Volquez NPERA @ 3.56; Actual ERA @ 4.35
#74 Burton NPERA @ 3.89; Actual ERA @ 4.81

Tier C (out of 132 NL Pitchers) 25 or less IP:

#1 Roenicke NPERA @ 0.66; Actual ERA @ 0.00
#20 Bailey NPERA @ 2.96; Actual ERA @ 5.94
#28 Fisher NPERA @ 3.23; Actual ERA @ 3.31
#58 Ramirez NPERA @ 4.75; Actual ERA @ 7.71
#76 Maloney NPERA @ 5.65; Actual ERA @ 6.11
#115 Lincoln NPERA @ 9.49; Actual ERA @ 8.22
#129 Janish NPERA @ 26.06; Actual ERA @ 45.00

BluegrassRedleg
07-04-2009, 06:43 PM
Janish needs to get his act together! :bash:

Kingspoint
07-05-2009, 05:17 PM
Keep in mind, these are food for thought posts.

sivman17
07-05-2009, 09:20 PM
Janish needs to get his act together! :bash:

i can't believe there are 3 guys with worse numbers than him

Jack Burton
07-06-2009, 02:00 PM
Is there anyone who still thinks Arroyo deserves a spot in the rotation?

jimbo
07-06-2009, 02:37 PM
Is there anyone who still thinks Arroyo deserves a spot in the rotation?

Based on previous seasons, yep. He was just as bad, if not worse, at this point last season and had an outstanding second half. A fact that too many fickle Reds fans seem to ignore.

Besides, who in the organization is a better option, and don't start picking random career minor leaguers? Also, Bailey has had one good major league start so he is still a big wildcard.

sivman17
07-06-2009, 05:13 PM
Is there anyone who still thinks Arroyo deserves a spot in the rotation?

i think he has worn out his welcome here. he was a decent pitcher for a couple years but he just doesn't seem to have any stuff left.